1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August 2025, economic data generally declined and fell short of expectations, with economic growth slowing slightly. It is expected that in September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods may further decline slightly, while investment growth is expected to stabilize. In the fourth quarter, new incremental macro - policies may be introduced to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [18][19] - China imposed export controls on some raw materials such as rare earths on October 9, 2025. In response, the US announced on October 11 that it would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1, 2025 [3] - The US federal government shut down on October 1, 2025, which will cause direct losses to the US economy and affect the release of economic data [4][48] - In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable and appreciating trend. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the RMB will continue the managed floating pattern [57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **Supply (Industrial Added Value)**: In August 2025, the year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to August was 6.2%. The growth rate of industrial production slowed down [18] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and new construction area were negative, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market [12][18] - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment was 0.5%. Affected by factors such as the observation period of current policies and the real estate adjustment, the investment growth rate declined at a low level [18][19] - **Demand (Social Retail Consumption)**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to August was 4.6%. The growth rate of retail sales slowed down, but the growth rate of optional consumer goods outside the trade - in policy accelerated [18][19] - **Business Climate Index**: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was strong, but the new order index increased less than in previous years. The non - manufacturing PMI declined, with the construction industry PMI remaining sluggish and the service industry PMI also falling [5] - **Import and Export Data**: In August 2025, export and import data showed a certain degree of decline. The export amount decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the import amount decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [12] 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In August 2025, the newly added social financing scale was 1434.8 billion yuan. The scale of RMB loans increased, while foreign currency loans, entrusted loans, and trust loans decreased [12] - **Credit Loan Data**: In August 2025, the newly added RMB loans were 1041.1 billion yuan. The newly added loans in the household sector and the corporate sector showed different trends [12] - **Money Supply**: At the end of August 2025, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest value since June 2021 [8] 3.3 Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In August 2025, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while core CPI continued to rise. The prices of gold and platinum jewelry, household appliances, and cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods increased year - on - year [9] - **PPI**: In August 2025, the PPI ended the continuous downward trend of the previous eight months. It was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for the first time since March [9] 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - **US Economy**: The US federal government shut down on October 1, 2025, causing direct losses to the economy and affecting the release of economic data. In August 2025, the CPI and core CPI increased, and the market fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation for the next week [4][48][49] - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the HICP and core HICP of the Eurozone increased slightly. The manufacturing PMI and service industry PMI showed different trends [16] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate appreciated steadily. The trend was driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the support of the domestic economic fundamentals, and the management of market expectations by the central bank [57] - **Exchange Rates**: As of September 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB fluctuated slightly, and the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates were maintained in the range of 7.12 - 7.15, with a cumulative appreciation of about 0.5% compared with the high point in July [57]

Report Information - Report Title: 【MA周报20251012】制裁冲击或难抵高供应压力 [1][2] - Date: 2025-10-12 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Methanol's downward space is limited, with support at the [2200] price level. Although the current supply is high and demand is average, there are strong expectations for winter restrictions on Iranian devices and the peak season of the 01 contract in the future, which will improve the supply-demand situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cost, Supply, and Demand - **Cost and Profit**: The price of动力煤is mainly stable with a weak trend. The production profit of the coal - to - methanol end is at a high level, while the natural gas - to - methanol is under pressure [7]. - **Supply**: Domestic and foreign methanol device starts are recovering. In Iran, some devices have restarted, and in other regions, some devices have experienced maintenance and restarts [7]. - **Demand**: After the holiday, the price of MTO is relatively firm, and the profit of MTO has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [7]. 2. Regional Price and Logistics - **Regional Price**: The spot price has differentiated this week. The port price rebounded after following the futures price down, showing an overall upward trend, while the inland price has slightly declined [19]. - **Freight**: After the holiday, as the transportation capacity recovers, the freight rate has dropped significantly [40]. - **Logistics Window**: The domestic methanol trade flows from north to south and from west to east. The opening and closing of the logistics window help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand imbalances [48]. 3. Production - End Profit and Start - Up - **Production - End Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit is high, while the natural gas - to - methanol profit is under pressure. The profit of different regions and processes varies [66]. - **Domestic Start - Up and Output**: The start - up rate has further recovered this week and is currently at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The production capacity has increased, and the output of different processes also shows different trends [101]. 4. Import and Export - **Import Profit and Price Difference**: Globally, methanol prices are mainly falling. The import profit and price difference between regions vary, and attention should be paid to the price difference between Southeast Asia and China [128]. - **External - Disk Start - Up and Output**: The external - disk start - up rate is rising. Iranian devices have restarted, and the output in different regions also shows different trends [147]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: Affected by typhoons and high imports from Iran and non - Iran regions, the net import volume in August reached a record high, and the import pressure in subsequent months remains high [178]. 5. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream**: After the holiday, the MTO price is relatively firm, and the profit has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [184]. - **Traditional Downstream**: The downstream demand is relatively flat, and the start - up rate has slightly declined compared with before the holiday. The supply and demand situation of different traditional downstream industries varies [224]. 6. Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: The inland inventory has increased by 1.95 million tons to 33.94 million tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has decreased by 15.78 million tons to 11.52 million tons. The inventory has seasonally accumulated during the holiday, but the overall increase is not large [8][278]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 5.1 million tons to 154.32 million tons compared with last week, with an increase of 4.78 million tons in East China and 0.32 million tons in South China [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited changes, and the spot market is weakly stable, waiting for a driving force. There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. The spot price is currently relatively strong, but as it enters the off - season later, the spot price may decline again [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in China has strengthened slightly. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda before the holiday was 813 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.625 yuan/dry ton), and after the holiday, it was 315 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.675 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali and the spread between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali vary in different regions and show different trends over time [27][31]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32 - alkali, 50 - alkali, and 99 - flake caustic soda between different regions also have different trends over time [34][35]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 85.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 86.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35% [40]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - There are long - term shutdown, this - week maintenance, and future - planned maintenance situations for chlor - alkali plants. For example, Yangmei in North China - Shanxi has been shut down since 2016, and Jiangsu Xinpu in East China - Jiangsu has resumed operation after maintenance from August 25th to September 14th [45]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The operation status of flake caustic soda plants varies among different manufacturers. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai's flake caustic soda plant in Shengxiong Factory has been under semi - load maintenance from September 6th to 26th, and there are also plans for future maintenance [47]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The alumina market has different price trends, spreads, production profits, operating rates, and inventory situations. For example, the average price of alumina in different regions shows different trends over time, and the production profit also fluctuates [54]. 3.4.2 Other Downstream Industries - In the viscose staple fiber industry, the capacity utilization rate this week is 89.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. In the printing and dyeing industry, as of October 9th, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 66.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [53]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 3, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 24.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, and the inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories is 2.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.59% [69]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market is stable this week, and the price of domestic thermal coal is rising. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali at the spot end this week is basically the same as last week [75]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - For chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC, the benchmark spot price shows a certain trend over time. The production capacity utilization rate and production profit of other chlorine - consuming products such as epoxy propane and epoxy chloropropane also have different performance [87][93]. 3.8 Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participants in the industrial chain have different operation suggestions. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can consider building inventory by selling put options and buying call options [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The m2601 soybean meal contract is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later period. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract is also in an oscillating downward stage, with the price center expected to drop [3]. - For soybean meal, externally, the US soybean harvest season has begun, presenting phased harvesting pressure, and there is no substantial progress in the China-US tariff agreement. Domestically, the recent import of soybeans for crushing remains sufficient, the inventory pressure of soybean meal needs to be digested, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. In the short term, affected by the US soybean harvest pressure and the suspension of Argentina's export tariffs, the soybean meal is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic soybean meal inventory pressure [3]. - For rapeseed meal, globally, the supply and demand pattern of rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be looser, suppressing the rapeseed price. In China, due to policies and high - margin requirements for imports and tariff restrictions, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the downstream demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the short term, it will follow the decline of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of rapeseed meal and the changes in China - Canada trade relations [3]. Summary According to the Directory International Supply and Demand US Soybean Supply and Demand - The US soybean harvest is advancing, and the USDA report release is postponed due to the government shutdown. The CBOT soybean price has a slight rebound but is expected to be weak overall. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [14][15]. - From September 1, 2025, the old - crop soybean inventory in the US was 316 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. As of October 7, about 39% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought [16]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing is advancing, with the main - producing state of Mato Grosso having a relatively fast sowing progress. China's procurement supports the firmness of Brazilian soybean premiums. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated to be 48.6 million hectares, with an expected output of 176.7 million tons. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean output is expected to be 43.6 million tons [36][37]. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed output is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons year - on - year, with the EU and Canada having increased production. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%, and the international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline. Canada's rapeseed harvest is nearly half - completed, and the overall output is expected to remain at a relatively high level. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed suppress its export demand and the international rapeseed price [65]. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long - position quantity, non - commercial short - position quantity, and total position quantity are provided, as well as the relevant data for CBOT soybean meal [54][57]. Domestic Supply and Demand Domestic Import Situation - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons [79]. - The supply of rapeseed meal includes the import and crushing of rapeseed and the direct import of rapeseed meal. The import of rapeseed in October is estimated to be 0 tons, 600,000 tons in November, and 850,000 tons in December [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - As of the week of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with a startup rate of 49.01%. It is expected that in the 41st week (October 4 - 10), the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will be 1.357 million tons, with a startup rate of 37.88%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal major oil mills is 20,000 tons, with a startup rate of 5.33% this week, and is expected to be 18,000 tons next week, with a startup rate of 4.80% [101]. Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods is presented, along with the soybean crushing profit on the futures market, import freight, FOB price, and premium [108][109]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market and in the spot market are also provided [116]. Inventory - As of the week of September 28, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.1991 million tons, an increase of 3.63% from the previous week and 14.3% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 4.86% from the previous week and 3.04% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous week [118]. Transaction - During the holiday, the soybean meal transaction was light. On the first trading day after the holiday, the total soybean meal transaction of major domestic oil mills was 223,800 tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous trading day. The downstream feed enterprises made appropriate purchases, and the market trading enthusiasm was fair [133]. Downstream Demand - The monthly feed output in August 2025 is provided, along with the prices of pig and egg - poultry feeds, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs,外购仔猪, white - feather broilers, and laying hens [138][140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the intensifying Sino-US friction impacts risk appetite and affects the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than in April, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, maintaining upward momentum [3] - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is favorable for RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflow, bringing new incremental funds. Current policies for stabilizing the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle [9] - Future index trends depend on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above two trillion, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on technology growth sectors with earnings certainty such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation and allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rose first and then fell, and technology stocks adjusted. The Nasdaq index dropped 2.53%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.43%, and the Hang Seng Technology index declined 5.48%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index dropped 3.86%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 2.85% [12][16] - Among industries, the 32 Shenwan primary industry indices showed divergent trends. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, coal, and steel rose significantly, while sectors like media, electronics, and power equipment led the decline [16] Liquidity - In August, the growth rate of social financing declined, and the "gap" between M1 and M2 narrowed. The 8 - month difference was 2.8 percentage points, indicating increased capital activity. The new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 483 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month, the first year - on - year decrease in 8 months [14][17] - The narrow - sense money M1 was 111.23 trillion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 6.0%, the highest since May 2022. The growth rate of M1 has accelerated, and the "gap" between M1 and M2 has been continuously narrowing since April [17] Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The monthly new account openings showed fluctuations, with 157000 in January, 283000 in February, 306000 in March, 192000 in April, 155500 in May, 164640 in June, 196360 in July, and 265030 in August. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating sufficient liquidity to support the index [27] Index Valuation - As of October 10, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. The latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.68, with a percentile of 83.21, and the PB of the entire A - share market was 22.46, with a percentile of 87.81. Among major stock indices, the valuation percentiles ranked as CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 50 > SSE 300 [34][35] Index Industry Weight - As of June 30, 2025, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverage in the SSE 50 were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics sector became the fourth - largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [44][45] - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance, and those of the CSI 1000 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [45] Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic important policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 7 - 8%, the CPI increase at around 2 - 8%, proposed a moderately accommodative monetary policy with timely reserve requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit ratio of about 4% and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the State Council Information Office meeting announced a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the provident fund rate, and the establishment of a 300 - billion - yuan service consumption and pension refinancing loan [50] - In September, the State Council Information Office meeting summarized the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan and set the tone for the 15th Five - Year Plan. It continued to deepen the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange, and promoted the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market [51] - The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. As of October 12, the probability of another rate cut in October by the Fed exceeded 80%, and there are still two expected rate cuts this year [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX and PTA are in a downward oscillation phase, with their future price centers expected to decline. The demand data during the peak season is mediocre, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumption exports [2]. - The polyester chain is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to large long - term supply pressure. The current valuation of polyester is low, but there is inventory accumulation during the peak season, and the long - term supply pressure is high. Unilateral strategies are difficult to implement [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply Side**: Three TA devices were put into production this year, and one more is waiting at the end of the year. The upstream supply has large long - term pressure. In the fourth quarter, there are few planned maintenance schedules [8]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester demand data during the peak season is mediocre. The load recovery is slow, with only about 90% currently. Inventory has accumulated to a high level, and terminal orders have not recovered well [8]. - **Valuation**: PX is around 200 US dollars per ton, and the spot processing fee of TA is around 180 yuan per ton. The industry chain valuation is at a low level, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to an inventory accumulation cycle [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the 01 contract to reach a low level and then focus on the long - position opportunity of the 05 contract next year. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PX1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunity when liquidity increases [8]. 2. Market Review - The PTA market in the third quarter followed the cost of crude oil, oscillating at a high level and then declining. Due to over - capacity pressure, high polyester inventory, and concerns about the impact of pre - peak exports, the price continued to be compressed during the peak season, and the valuation continued to weaken [9]. 3. Production Capacity Situation - **PTA**: In 2025, there are many PTA device production plans, with over 10 million tons expected to be put into production throughout the year. The production capacity is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [23]. - **Polyester**: In 2024, the new polyester production capacity was about 4.5 million tons, with a growth rate of about 5.5%. In 2025, the planned production is the lowest in recent years, with only 2.05 million tons of production capacity put into operation so far, and the expected annual new production capacity growth rate is about 5% [26]. 4. PX Supply Side - **Production**: The cumulative PX production in the first three quarters was about 28 million tons, almost the same as the previous period. The supply is relatively balanced, and there is no severe over - capacity situation like PTA [32]. - **Domestic Device Load**: The average PX load in the third quarter was about 80%, a decrease of about 4 percentage points compared to the previous period [34]. - **Korean Device Load**: The load of Korean devices in the third quarter was not high. Although the logistics volume to the US was almost zero, the import from Korea was normal, and the aromatics import is expected to increase slightly in the future [34]. 5. PTA Supply Side - **Production**: From January to August, the total PTA production was about 48.5 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to the previous year. The short - term supply - demand situation is still acceptable [79]. - **Load**: The average daily effective load of PTA in the third quarter was about 77%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the previous period. Thanks to the new device production, the supply output increased instead [79]. - **Export**: From January to August, the total PTA export was 2.53 million tons, a decrease of about 500,000 tons compared to the previous year [87]. 6. Polyester Supply Side - **Production**: From January to August, the total polyester production was about 52.5 million tons, an increase of about 4 million tons compared to the previous year. New devices have been put into production, and the load performance in the off - season was relatively good [91]. - **Benefit and Inventory**: The benefits of various polyester products are poor. The overall polyester inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and most of the inventory is accumulated in polyester factories, with terminal inventory also reaching a high level this year [92]. - **Export**: From January to August, China's polyester export was about 9.6 million tons, an increase of 1.25 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of over 15%. The increase was mainly in bottle chips [99]. 7. Terminal Weaving - **Weaving Start - up**: The terminal start - up data is mediocre. After the holiday, the load only reached the historical median level. The actual situation is poor, and the order situation is average [118]. - **Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling**: The terminal raw material and finished product stockpiles have reached a high level this year, which is one of the reasons for the high polyester inventory. The future situation is not optimistic [119]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows data such as production, import, apparent consumption, and inventory changes from January to December, along with their year - on - year growth rates [148]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It includes data on apparent consumption, production, export, polyester consumption of PX, and inventory changes, as well as their year - on - year growth rates. It also provides production and import - export projections [148]. 9. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis reflects the strength of the spot market relative to the futures market. When the basis is negative, the spot market is weak [150]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks [150]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: Open interest can reflect the ratio of real to virtual positions and may affect delivery. Trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract [150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefins, including polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), are in a downward - trending phase. Their price centers are expected to decline in the later period. The reason is that they are in a capacity - release cycle, with new devices coming into operation and high existing production loads. Meanwhile, Q4 may see an increase in imports, leading to large supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and cannot digest the high production volume. As a result, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move down [3]. - In Q3, the polyolefin market had no major contradictions, but the supply - demand pattern was under pressure. New devices were put into production, and demand in the peak season was lower than expected, causing the price center to gradually decline. In Q4, the supply pressure will increase due to expected import growth, the cost - side crude oil outlook is pessimistic, and the oversupply pattern will continue to intensify, further pressuring prices [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price, Basis, and Spread Trends**: In July, after a brief rebound, polyolefin prices started to decline. In August and September, prices, especially for PP, weakened. The basis of PP was under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread was at a low level. The basis of PE was stronger than that of PP and has been strengthening since August, but the absolute value was still low. The 1 - 5 spread of PE also weakened against the season [11][18]. - **Spread Analysis**: Before late August, the L - P spread was upward, but then turned downward as the demand for L also failed to meet expectations. The L - V01 and PP - V01 spreads fell in July and then recovered and stabilized in August. Methanol was statically weak, and MTO profits improved [33][34]. 3.2 Supply Review - **Domestic Capacity Release**: In 2025, multiple PP and PE production devices are planned to be put into production. In Q3, PP added 1.3 million tons of production capacity, and there are still 750,000 tons to be put into operation by the end of the year. PE added 900,000 tons of production capacity in Q3, and there are still 1.7 million tons to be put into operation, with slightly greater pressure than PP [39][40]. - **Production - Side Profits**: In Q3, the cost - side oil price center moved down. The profit of the oil - based production end was at the same level as the previous year. LPG supply pressure increased, and PDH profits were poor. With the arrival of the coal - using peak season, coal prices rebounded, CTO profits shrank but remained high, and inland MTO profits deteriorated [65]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: From January to August, the supply of PP and PE remained high. In Q3, PP devices operated stably with few maintenance cases, but parking increased in mid - to - late September due to weak demand. PE had more maintenance, especially in September, but the overall supply was still in surplus [72][78]. - **Imports and Exports**: From January to August, PP imports decreased by 9.76% year - on - year, exports increased by 29.01% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 91.68% year - on - year. PE imports decreased by 0.84% year - on - year, exports decreased by 25.91% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 2.66% year - on - year [89][90]. 3.3 Demand Review - **PP Demand**: In Q3, PP demand entered the seasonal peak season but did not meet expectations. Although industries such as agriculture, construction, packaging, and PP pipes showed some improvement in demand, the overall demand was still weaker than expected, increasing the downward pressure on PP prices [115]. - **PE Demand**: PE has a more obvious demand peak - season attribute, but similar to PP, the demand support was not strong. With the approach of the peak season for greenhouse film demand, production has recovered, but it was worse than the same period last year. The packaging film market has slightly improved, but the overall demand has not fully met expectations [133]. 3.4 Inventory Review - **PP Inventory**: Upstream production enterprises actively reduced inventory, and inventory mainly accumulated in the middle - link. Production enterprise inventory, port inventory, and trader inventory data showed the inventory transfer and accumulation situation [134][137]. - **PE Inventory**: PE inventory remained stable, and inventory accumulated in the middle - link during the off - season. With the increase in demand for greenhouse film and packaging film in August, social inventory decreased slightly [151].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Technology remains the main driving force, with the recent volatility of high - flying technology blue - chips increasing significantly, and sectors such as solid - state batteries and energy storage taking over to gain strength. There is still room for the revaluation of Chinese assets, but its sustainability requires the support of macro - policies. It is recommended to enter the futures index market on pullbacks [3] - It is advisable to focus on allocating to technology - growth sectors with earnings certainty, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors like finance, securities, and consumption [6] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices were mainly volatile, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices remaining strong. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose by 2.34%, and the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.84%. In terms of global indices, the Nasdaq rose by 2.22%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.22%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.09% [15][19] - Among the Shenwan first - tier industries, sectors such as coal, power equipment, and electronics rose significantly, while sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance led the decline [19] Liquidity - In August, the growth rate of social financing declined, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 narrowed. The difference in August was 2.8 percentage points, indicating an increase in the activation of funds. The policies to stabilize the market effectively boosted market confidence, which is beneficial for the short - term economic activity [17][18] - As of September 19, 2025, the capital interest rate (DR007) remained at a low level, and the net MLF investment in July was 40 billion yuan. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was around 1.7%. The total social financing in August increased less year - on - year, with the new social financing in August at 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 483 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock dropped to 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month [20] Trading Data and Sentiment - The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.88 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, in June slightly rose to 1.6464 million, in July was 1.9636 million, and in August was 2.6503 million [28] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) rebounded above 2.5 trillion yuan, and the liquidity supported the index. The single - day trading volume within the week exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the divergence intensified [28] Index Valuation - As of September 19, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.36, with a percentile of 81.41; the latest PE of the SSE 50 was 22.10, with a percentile of 84.90. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 204.5 were close to 50% [37] Index Industry Weights (as of 2025/6/30) - For the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage sectors were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [46][47] - For the CSI 300, the weights were relatively dispersed. The top three weighted industries were banking, non - bank finance, and electronics [46][47] - For the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [47][51] - For the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [47][51] Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - The United States is about to enter another interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. According to CME data, as of September 18, the probability of another interest - rate cut by the Fed in October is nearly 80%, and there are still two expected cuts within the year [52] - In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 5%, the CPI increase at around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy was implemented, with timely reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to ensure sufficient bond liquidity. A more proactive fiscal policy was implemented, with a planned deficit ratio of around 4% and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan [53] - At the State Council Information Office press conference on May 7, 2025, the reserve - requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points from 1.56% to 1.4%, and the provident - fund interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care was established, and support was provided for Central Huijin to play the role of a "stabilization fund" [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Technology is still the main force, with certain extreme characteristics in the trading structure, and the volatility of recently over - rising technology blue - chips has increased significantly; there is still room for the revaluation of Chinese assets, and the persistency requires the support of macro - policies. Futures on stock indices should be bought on dips [4]. - The current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of stock indices is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [6]. - It is recommended to focus on allocating technology - growth sectors with profit certainty, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rebounded, and the ChiNext and STAR Market continued to strengthen. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.52%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.10%, and the STAR 50 Index soared 5.48%. Most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with sectors such as electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rising significantly [16][20]. - As of September 12, 2025, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.03%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.58%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.31% [20]. 3.2 Liquidity - The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate (DR007) of inter - bank deposit - type financial institutions remained low, and the net MLF injection in July was 40 billion yuan. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond dropped to around 1.7% [21]. - In August, the total social financing increased less year - on - year. The new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 483 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month, the first year - on - year decrease in the past 8 months. The main reasons were the year - on - year decrease in RMB loans to the real economy and the large - scale issuance of government bonds in August last year [21]. - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. In August, the narrow - sense money M1 was 11.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%, the highest since May 2002 [21]. 3.3 Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, and stock indices regained their upward momentum. The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) reached around 2.5 trillion yuan, and the new account opening numbers in different months showed fluctuations [29]. - The one - month new account opening number was 1.57 million, the two - month new account opening number was 2.88 million, the three - month new account opening number was 3.06 million, the four - month new account opening number dropped to 1.92 million, the five - month new account opening number continued to drop to 1.555 million, the six - month new account opening number slightly rose to 1.6464 million, the seven - month new account opening number was 1.9636 million, and the eight - month new account opening number was 2.6503 million [29]. 3.4 Index Valuation - As of September 12, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.58, with a percentile of 3.68, and the latest PE of the entire market was 22.24, with a percentile of 86.31. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < SSE 50 < SSE 300 [37]. - The absolute valuation of indices was at a low level [36]. 3.5 Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [46][47]. - In the SSE 300, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics [47]. - In the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance [47]. - In the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [47]. 3.6 Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - The United States is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle. As of September 10, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September was nearly 100%, and the expected interest - rate cut within the year was 50 - 75 BP [52]. - In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 5%, the CPI increase at about 2%, implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more active fiscal policy, and planned to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [53]. - At the State Council Information Office press conference on May 7, 2025, the deposit reserve ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, a 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care re - loan was established, and measures were taken to support the entry of various medium - and long - term funds into the market [53].