【宏观周报20250223】科技概念助推国内市场宏观情绪偏向乐观 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-02-21 【宏观周报20250223】科技概念助推国内市场宏观情绪偏向乐观 【宏观总结20250223】 国内经济:1月信贷社融开门红 1月社会融资规模增量为7.06万亿元，比上年同期多5833亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加6.22万亿元，同比多增3793亿元。1月份人民币贷款增加5.18万亿元。分部 门看，住户贷款增加4438亿元，企（事）业单位贷款增加4.78万亿元。社融数据数据同比回升，显示宏观经济边际好转进一步加强. 海外经济:美国1月通胀数据超预期回升 2月12日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国1月29日同比增长3%，超出预期和前值的2.9%、1月GPI环比增0.5%，为2020年8月以来的最大涨幅。超出预期的0.3%以及前值的2.9%及 连续第七个月加速。剔除波动较大的食品和能源，1月份核心SPL上涨0.4%，同比增速见加快至3.3%。面对新一轮商品和服务成本上涨，以及美国关税政策的比动，美联储立场可能 维持谨慎，即在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，并不急于恢复降息。 海外经 ...

【宏观周报20250216】中国1月信贷社融开门红，美国1月通胀 数据超预期回升 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-02-16 海外经济:美国1月通胀数据超预期回升 2月12日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国1月29日同比增长3%，超出预期和前值的2.9%、1月GPI环比增0.5%，为2020年8月以来的最大涨幅。超出预期的0.3%以及前值的2.9%及 连续第七个月加速。剔除波动较大的食品和能源，1月份核心SPL上涨0.4%，同比增速见加快至3.3%。面对新一轮商品和服务成本上涨，以及美国关税政策的比动，美联储立场可能 维持谨慎，即在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，并不急于恢复降息。 海外经济:美联储主席表示不急于降息 2月11日、美联储主席勉威尔在参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会举行的所证会上表示，当前美国失业率及劳动力市场情况不构成通胀压力来源、美联储并不急于 在近期继续降息、政策已做好应对风险和不确定性的准备，现无需急于调整政策。 【宏观周报20250216】中国1月信贷社融开门红，美国1月通胀数据超预期回升 【宏观总结20250216】 国内经济:1月信贷社融开门红 1月甘会融资规模增量为7 ...

Domestic Economy - Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations at 5.4%, achieving the annual growth target of 5%[3] - In December, industrial added value, service production index, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.2%, 6.5%, and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively[3] - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.2% year-on-year, while real estate development investment fell by 10.6%[3] Overseas Economy - In December, the U.S. core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with the core inflation rate dropping to 3.2%, marking the first decline in six months[3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs in December, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%[8] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, with potential rate cuts on the horizon[5] - In December, M1 growth was 11.4%, while M2 growth was 7.3%, indicating a rise in monetary liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival[3] Consumer Prices - In December, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating weak price levels, with core CPI increasing by 0.4%[4] - The overall domestic price level remains weak, necessitating continued policy support for price recovery[4]

Domestic Inflation and Economic Indicators - In December 2024, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month, indicating weak inflationary pressure[3] - The core CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, suggesting slight improvement in underlying inflation trends[3] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 52.2%, up by 2.2 percentage points[5] Monetary Policy and Economic Growth - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is considering increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, including potential cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates[4] - The State Council plans to support "two new" and "two heavy" projects in 2025, with an additional project list expected to be released soon, aiming to boost economic activity[4] - The total social financing in December 2024 was reported at 23,262 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%[14] U.S. Employment and Economic Outlook - In December 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%[6] - The job growth was primarily driven by the healthcare sector, which added 46,000 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 43,000 jobs[6] - Following the strong employment data, market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished, with the next anticipated cut now pushed to October 2025[6] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, but future cuts may be less aggressive than previously anticipated, with projections indicating only two cuts in the next two years[7] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, with retail sales in December increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, reflecting consumer spending strength[12]

【宏观周报20250105】12月制造业PMI保持扩张，发改委加码 "两重两新"政策 朱枭鹏, CFA, Z0015158 日期:2025-01-05 【宏观周报20250105】12月制造业PMI保持扩张，发改委加码"两重两新"政策 国内经济:2025年发改委加力实施"两新两重"项目 1月3日，国务院新闻办公室举行"中国经济高质量发展成效"系列新闻发布会、国家发展改革委有关负责人表示，2025年、要加力扩国实施"两新"政策、更大 力度支持"两重"项目。2025年，将更大力度支持"两重"项目，在去年提前下达今年约1000亿元项目清单的基础上，近期将再下达一批项目清单，推动尽快形 成实物工作量。此外，要加力扩围实施"两新"政策、扩大范围。将设备更新支持范围扩大至电子信息、安全生产、设施农业等领域。 国内经济:12月制造业PMI保持扩张,全年仍有望实现增长目标 12月份，制造业采购经理指数为50.1%。比上月下降0.2个百分点：非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均为52.2%，分别比上月上升2.2和1.4个百分点，三 大指数均位于扩张区间，企业生产经营活动加快。供需两端继续扩张。生产指数为52.1%，比上月 ...

Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining stable economic growth and employment in 2024, with a focus on proactive fiscal and monetary policies[2] - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, marking an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating continued expansion for the eighth consecutive month[3] Inflation and Prices - November's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing low inflation levels[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, showing a slight expansion compared to the previous month[3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China introduced new reverse repurchase agreements to enhance liquidity management, with the one-year LPR set at 3.10%, down 26 basis points[4] - In the U.S., November inflation data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core inflation rising by 0.3%, maintaining expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve[4][5] Employment Data - The U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, surpassing the market expectation of 211,000, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.2%[5] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly fell to 62.5%, indicating potential labor market challenges[5]

Economic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining the same growth rate as the first nine months[1] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%[1] Inflation and Prices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year but fell by 1.3% month-on-month[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China introduced a new buyout-style reverse repurchase tool to enhance liquidity management, aiming to improve the bank system's liquidity[1] - The new tool is expected to cover terms of 3 months and 6 months, enhancing the ability to adjust liquidity across different time frames[1] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions have escalated, particularly in Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, with significant military developments reported[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, reflecting a strong economic performance and a lack of urgency to lower rates[2][3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The US economy shows signs of resilience with a significant increase in September non-farm payrolls, adding 254,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 140,000[3] - The unemployment rate in the US decreased slightly to 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The US service sector PMI rose to 54.9% in September, indicating strong economic activity[7] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 20 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, potentially injecting approximately 1.5 trillion yuan into the economy[4] - A series of real estate policies were introduced, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates by an average of 0.98%, expected to save households around 150 billion yuan annually[4] - New financial instruments were created to enhance liquidity in the stock market, including a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase program with a low interest rate of 2.25%[4] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market anticipates a total of 50 basis points in interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, aligning with the dot plot projections[8] - Domestic asset prices are expected to recover due to the reversal in policy expectations and improved economic indicators[5] - The 10-year government bond futures are projected to fluctuate within the range of [104.5, 106.5] as market conditions stabilize[6]

Economic Overview - The Politburo meeting on August 26 emphasized the need to strengthen confidence and improve policy measures to address economic challenges[1] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.6%[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,786 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%[1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market[3] - The central bank also lowered the loan market quotation rate and deposit rates, aiming to stabilize the net interest margin of commercial banks[3] Inflation and Prices - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI decreased to 0.3%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a decline of 1.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy[2] Employment and Unemployment - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first eight months, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[1] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group remains a concern, reflecting challenges in youth employment[1] Trade and Investment - The total import and export value in August was 37,520 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 29,365 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year[1]

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value in China increased by 4.6% year-on-year and 0.78% month-on-month[1] - The service production index grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while retail sales totaled 28,786 billion yuan, marking a 2.1% year-on-year increase but a 6.0% month-on-month decline[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 329,358 billion yuan in the first eight months, up 3.4% year-on-year[1] - The average urban unemployment rate for the first eight months was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year[1] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The People's Bank of China reported a cumulative increase in social financing of 21.4 trillion yuan in the first eight months, down 3.82 trillion yuan year-on-year[2] - New RMB loans added in September were 900 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in August, with core inflation dropping to 0.8%[2] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with an expected total reduction of 100 basis points for the year[2] Employment and Market Trends - The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 4.8% in August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 142,000, below market expectations[2] - The manufacturing PMI in China was reported at 49.3, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 51.5, indicating expansion[1][2] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in September, with core CPI remaining stable[2]