1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) is expected to trade in a range of [3700, 4250]. The contract under consideration is eg2601. The price of EG01 is under pressure due to weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and weak expectations of new capacity coming online in the fourth quarter. From October to December, inventory accumulation is evident, and there are expectations of new plant commissioning in the far - month. In the long - term, from 2026 - 2027, MEG may enter a new expansion phase. Given that oil - based plants are in loss and imports have an advantage in raw material prices, the absolute price range of MEG is anchored to the cost of the coal - based industry, around 3700 - 4245 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EGPF Morning Report - **Price Range**: MEG is expected to trade between 3700 - 4245 yuan, with the price range mainly determined by the cost of the coal - based industry [4]. - **Industry Situation**: In 2025, MEG capacity expansion is limited. In the long - term (2026 - 2027), there will be significant new capacity, including second - phase projects and new syngas - to - MEG projects. The value of MEG will likely show bottom - consolidation in the future [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: From October to December, inventory accumulation is significant. In October, the inventory increased by about 7 - 8 tons [4]. - **Operation Suggestions for the Industry Chain** - **Refineries**: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent unexpected risks. When inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell eg2601 at 4200 yuan with a 50% ratio [4]. - **Traders**: When purchasing according to the plan, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan to build inventory. When having inventory and seeking high - price sales, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. - **End - users**: When in need of polyester raw materials and worried about price increases, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan. When raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) [4]. - **Coal - chemical Enterprises**: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. 3.2 Upstream Price - **Price Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: Naphtha price CFR Japan increased from 562.00 to 563.00; methanol price in Taicang increased from 1989.00 to 2062.00; MEG outer - market price increased from 452.00 to 459.00; MEG East China spot self - pick - up price increased from 3844.00 to 3914.00; MEG import cost increased from 3842.93 to 3898.01; MEG import profit increased from 1.07 to 15.99; EG2601 futures price increased from 3808.00 to 3884.00; direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6278 to 6488; PF2512 closing price increased from 6148 to 6190 [6]. - **Unchanged Prices**:动力煤 (Inner Mongolia Q5500) remained at 630.00; ethylene in Northeast Asia remained at 730.00; MEG coal - based cost remained at 4816.00 [6]. 3.3 EGPF Process Profits - **Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: MEG oil - based profit increased from - 1192.63 to - 1123.87; MEG coal - based profit increased from - 972.00 to - 902.00; MEG ethylene - based profit increased from - 750.77 to - 676.69; MEG weighted profit increased from - 1104.06 to - 1038.67; direct - spun polyester staple fiber spot profit decreased from 114.13 to 75.88; short - fiber main - contract on - disk profit decreased from 32 to 31 [6]. 3.4 EG Basis, Spread, and Position - **Basis and Spread Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: EG1 - month basis decreased from 36.00 to 30.00; the difference in deep - pine short - rise increased from 130 to 298; PF12 - 1 month spread changed as shown in the data [6].

Report Title - The report is titled "Oil Weekly Report 20251121: The Resonance of Malaysian Palm Oil High-Frequency Data and US Biodiesel Pressures the Oil Futures Market" [1][2] Investment Rating - The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8300] price level. The contract is p2601. In the medium term, the pattern is slightly bullish. Although the domestic inventory has reached a moderately high level in history, and the near - month purchases have recovered, the consumption remains weak, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. In the long - term, the tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia continues, and biodiesel policies support the price center [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9400] price level. The contract is Ol601. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the expected tightening of supply in the far - month has been alleviated. In the long - term, the increased import capital cost due to the margin on Canadian rapeseed still provides support [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The contract is y2601. Abroad, the supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging during the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption due to biodiesel policies lead to a tightening supply. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, and the far - month supply is expected to ease. It mainly follows other oils in a bullish oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, BMD crude palm oil first rose and then fell, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The market was first boosted by the US reaffirming the 2026 RVO target but then weakened due to high - frequency data showing an increase in Malaysian production and a significant decline in exports in November [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Data** - **Malaysia**: In October, the production was 2.0439 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 11.02% and a year - on - year increase of 13.72%), consumption was 282,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 15.41% and a year - on - year increase of 10%), exports were 1.0929 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 18.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%), and the end - of - month inventory was 1.4645 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.07%). From November 1 - 20, the export volume decreased, and the production increased [16]. - **Indonesia**: As of August, the inventory remained at a low level in history. In August, the production was 5.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.66%), exports were 3.47 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% and a year - on - year increase of 5.56%), and the end - of - month inventory was 2.54 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%). The reference price of crude palm oil in November was raised [34]. - **Indian Market**: After the festival, India's purchases slowed down, but due to rigid demand, the imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level year - on - year. Currently, India's oil and palm oil inventories have returned to a moderately low level in history [37][52]. 2. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. CBOT soybean oil first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly increase [50][51]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Harvest Progress**: As of November 17, the soybean harvest progress was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [53]. - **Biodiesel Policy**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. There are considerations to postpone the reduction of incentives for imported biodiesel, which may affect the demand for US soybean oil [53]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global soybean production shows certain fluctuations, and the consumption and inventory also change accordingly. For example, in 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 421.748 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.26% [56]. 3. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Planting Progress** - **Brazil**: As of November 15, the 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 69%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The production is expected to continue to increase [78]. - **Argentina**: As of November 12, the soybean planting progress was 12.9%, lower than the same period last year [72]. - **Weather Outlook**: In Brazil, the soybean - producing areas have good weather for sowing, but there may be a risk of deterioration in December. In Argentina, the soybean - producing areas may gradually enter a dry weather pattern [73][78]. 4. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Production Forecast**: In the 2025/26 year, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. Canada, the EU, and Australia are all expected to increase production. For example, Canada's rapeseed production is estimated to be 20.03 million tons [110]. - **Policy Impact**: China has imposed a 75.8% margin on imported rapeseed from Canada. Although there are signs of relaxation in Sino - Canadian relations, there has been no substantial progress, which provides support for rapeseed oil prices [111]. - **Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global rapeseed production, consumption, and inventory change. In 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 92.273 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.30% [115]. 5. Domestic Oil Supply and Demand - **Market Performance**: This week, the domestic three major oil indexes were mainly weak. Palm oil has a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. Soybean oil's far - month supply tightening expectation has improved, and rapeseed oil is supported by the lack of substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade [129]. - **Pressing and Production**: In the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 304,700 tons, and the expected production in the 47th week is 446,300 tons. The rapeseed - pressing volume of coastal oil mills is 0 tons, and the palm oil trading volume has increased [132][133]. - **Import and Inventory**: As of November 14, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 11.31%. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories decreased slightly, while palm oil inventory increased significantly [158][159]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil show certain fluctuations [148][152][153]. - **Basis and Spread**: The domestic soybean oil spot basis is generally weak, the palm oil basis is basically flat, and the rapeseed oil basis has a small decline. There are also corresponding changes in the spreads between different contracts and different varieties [189][237][244][245].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The contract is 12601. With the capacity being put into production, new devices are gradually coming into operation, and the existing production load is also high. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase in Q4, leading to significant supply pressure. As the demand enters the end of the peak season and struggles to digest the high output, the price center of polyethylene may continue to move downward [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the futures market, the spot price also declined. The basis strengthened overall. The basis in East China strengthened by 60 to around 180 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around -20 yuan/ton, and weakened by 10 to around 190 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend [20]. - **Spread on the Futures Market**: The 1 - 5 spread remained slightly at around -60, at a historical low. The L - PP01 spread climbed above 430 yuan/ton, and the PP - 701 spread was at a high level. Overall, PP faced greater supply pressure (high load and new production), while L had more maintenance and stronger support from agricultural film demand. The methanol market was weak, with port inventories reaching a new high under high imports. The methanol price continued to decline, and the MI0 profit improved month - on - month [28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest capacity share, with the East China oil - based cost at 7192 yuan/ton. The coal - based process is an important supplement to domestic PE production, with the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost at 5523 yuan/ton. The light - hydrocarbon process has the second - largest share, but lacks a clear cost calculation formula. The MTO process has a relatively small capacity share, and its marginal impact is limited [54][55][56]. - **Production Profit**: This week, oil prices oscillated and then declined after mid - week. The Brent crude oil price fell below 82 US dollars per barrel. The oil - based profit was at a relatively good level in recent years. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was weak, and the profit of ethylene procurement improved. Affected by supply tightening and strengthened winter - storage expectations, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the CTO profit deteriorated but remained high, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure [57][58]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of October 2025, the new domestic PE capacity totaled 393 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.49%. The planned new capacity in 2025 is 563 million tons, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 14.91%. This week, the domestic PE output was 67.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous week. The maintenance loss was 9.95 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons compared to the previous week. New maintenance was added to devices of Wanhua Chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhongying Petrochemical, and the maintenance devices had not restarted, resulting in a decrease in supply this week [78][79][80]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price in the International Market**: The prices in Northwest Europe were at a high level, especially for LD and HD. The US prices declined. The US dollar prices in the Chinese market showed mixed trends, the prices in Southeast Asia decreased slightly with weak demand, and the prices in South Asia remained stable with light trading [96]. - **Domestic and International Price Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the periphery recovered. The import windows for LD and some HD products were open. Recently, the inventory pressure of foreign suppliers has weakened, and the reporting of offers has slowed down [97][107]. 3.4 Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: The downstream has entered the end of the peak season. The demand for greenhouse films is gradually shrinking, and the operating rate of mulch films has declined from the high level. The operating rate of packaging films increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with some rigid demand remaining. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products increased by 0.3%, while the operating rates of drawing and injection molding decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively [122]. - **Downstream Profit**: Relevant data showed the profit trends of different types of films such as mulch films and double - protection films, but specific analysis was not provided in the report [123][132]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.59 million tons to 50.33 million tons, including a reduction of 2.5 million tons in the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies and 0.09 million tons in coal - based inventory. The social inventory decreased by 1.42 million tons to 48.59 million tons. The increase in upstream maintenance and active inventory reduction, combined with the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, led to the reduction of upstream and social inventories [11][150]. 3.6 Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipts - **Position**: The positions of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics showed different trends over time [165]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics also showed different trends over time [167][168][169]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of L showed a change trend over time [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, US technology stocks have significantly corrected, and domestic stock indices have also seen increased divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen to around 3800. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds. After the consolidation of stock indices, there is still upward momentum [3][4]. - The international situation is complex, but positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds [4]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of stock indices is clear. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. The "15th Five - Year Plan" raises requirements for technological innovation and expands domestic demand [4]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - to - long - term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle [4]. - In the future, attention should be paid to trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotational allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices mainly fluctuated. As of November 21, 2025, the Nasdaq Index fell 2.74%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.95%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 7.18%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 5.80%, the SSE 50 Index fell 2.72%, the ChiNext Index fell 6.15%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 5.54%. Most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined this week, with many sectors such as power equipment, comprehensive, and commercial retail falling more than 5% [11][14]. 3.2 Liquidity - The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of inter - bank deposit - type financial institutions (DR007) remained low. In October, 200 billion yuan of MLF was to be injected, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.8%. - The increase in social financing was lower than the seasonal average, with declines in the two major sub - items of credit and government bonds. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, slightly lower than that in September. The new social financing in October was 815 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly affected by seasonal factors and the slowdown in government bond issuance. - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. In October, the growth rate of M2 slowed down by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2% compared with September, and the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed to 2% (0.1 percentage point smaller than in September), indicating an increase in the "activity" of funds [15]. 3.3 Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the Shanghai Composite Index had a significant weekly decline. From January to October 2025, the cumulative number of newly opened A - share accounts in the A - share market was 22.4588 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity was an important factor supporting the current index [24][26]. 3.4 Index Valuation - As of November 21, 2026, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.10, with a percentile of 77.22, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.27, with a percentile of 79.56. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50. The absolute valuation of the index was at a low level, but the percentile was relatively high [32]. 3.5 Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors were relatively high, at 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - In the SSE 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [39][40][44]. 3.6 Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March proposed an economic growth target, a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates were cut, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, achievements in the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and reforms in the capital market were deepened. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee set the goals and deployments for the "15th Five - Year Plan", emphasizing technology and expanding domestic demand [45][46]. - US policies: The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in October. As of November 22, the probability of another interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has decreased, but it is still expected to cut rates once within the year [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report shows that domestic social financing and economic data indicate a slowdown in domestic demand growth. In October, economic data showed weak domestic demand, with consumption, investment, and manufacturing all experiencing varying degrees of decline. Social financing and credit growth also slowed down, mainly due to reduced fiscal support and insufficient effective demand from the private sector. However, there are also some positive factors, such as the potential support from new policy - based financial instruments and local government bond balance limits in the remaining two months of the year, ensuring the achievement of the annual growth target. Abroad, the US government shutdown affected economic data release and economic activities, and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision faced internal differences [3][15][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **Consumption**: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. The growth of retail sales of goods continued to weaken, while service retail and catering improved. The growth of consumer goods retail sales excluding automobiles was 4.0%. Holiday - driven travel and service - related consumption increased, but the per - capita consumption was lower than last year, and the demand for durable goods such as cars and home appliances declined rapidly [15]. - **Investment**: From January to October, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40,814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Excluding real - estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.7%. Infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 14.7%. Newly - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and sales volume decreased by 9.6% [3][15]. - **Industrial Production**: In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to October, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in both supply and demand [3][4]. - **Foreign Trade**: In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports increased by 7.1%, and imports decreased by 0.2% [5]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - **Overall Situation**: In October, financial data generally slowed down. The growth rates of social financing, credit, and M1 declined. The increment of social financing in October was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The increment of new RMB loans was 22 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 billion yuan [34]. - **Structural Features**: Bill financing increased year - on - year, corporate credit was weak, and household financing contracted. Bill financing increased by 33.12 billion yuan year - on - year. Corporate short - term and medium - long - term loans were - 19 billion and 3 billion yuan respectively. Household short - term and medium - long - term loans both had net repayments [34]. 3.3 Price - **CPI**: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, and non - food prices increased by 0.9% [3][39]. - **PPI**: In October, the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for the third consecutive month. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year [39]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Economy**: In September, US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly due to the decline in rent prices. The US federal government shutdown affected economic data release and economic activities, causing direct losses to the economy [44][45]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Relevant economic data such as the Eurozone HICP were released, and the performance of the manufacturing and service industries was also presented [12]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In November, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was adjusted upwards to below 7.10. The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future, but short - term disturbances from external risks should be watched out for [52]. - **Interest Rates**: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and treasury bond yields were presented, showing the market's interest - rate situation [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The corn market is expected to trade in a range, with the C2601 contract oscillating between 2000 and 2300 yuan/ton. The cost support at around 2000 yuan/ton is strong, and there is rigid demand for corn. However, the traditional selling pressure in the fourth quarter and the bumper harvest of new - season corn limit the upside potential of prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Corn spot and futures prices are strong, and the national corn selling progress is 24%, with a 2% week - on - week increase but a slowdown in growth rate. North China's selling progress is 23%, and Northeast China's is 19%, both relatively fast year - on - year. However, the progress in each province has slowed down to some extent. The price increase is due to factors such as price hikes by state - owned grain depots and traders, but there are issues with export ports, and downstream enterprises' willingness to build inventories at high prices is average [10]. Corn Import - Corn import volume has significantly decreased. In September 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, an 80.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 890,000 tons, a 92.92% decrease compared to the same period last year. The USDA estimates that China's corn import volume in the 2025/26 season will be 8 million tons, 2 million tons less than the previous forecast [17][18]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat is out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has increased. In September 2025, the import volume of barley was 1229300 tons, a 30.86% year - on - year increase, and the import volume of sorghum was 674600 tons, a 30.53% year - on - year decrease [21][23]. Demand Feed and Livestock Farming - The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the farming profit is poor. In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 88.0%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Self - breeding and self - raising pig farming, broiler farming, and egg - laying hen farming are all in a loss state [33][34]. Deep - processing - The production profit of deep - processing has deteriorated again, and the consumption of alcohol is relatively high. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises has increased, with Shandong at around 78% and Heilongjiang at around 92%. The production of corn starch has increased to 328,400 tons, and the downstream pick - up volume has remained stable at 383,400 tons. The consumption of corn by alcohol enterprises has slightly decreased to about 420,000 tons [52]. Inventory - Channels and downstream inventories are still low, while starch inventories are significantly high. As of November 7, the inventory of the four northern ports is about 1.07 million tons, the inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized at about 20 days of available inventory, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is about 2.74 million tons. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises is about 1.13 million tons, a record high in the same period in the past eight years [69][70][71]. Basis and Spread - The spreads between different corn contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9), starch contracts, and the spread between corn and starch contracts are provided, showing different price differences at different times [129][131]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On November 13, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown persists, lacking data guidance, and the market focuses on Sino-US policy agreements and the return of US soybean orders. Domestically, near - term soybean and soybean meal supplies are relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease. The cost - end support for soybean meal is strong, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff policies and the growth of South American soybeans [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, suppressing the price. Domestically, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The supply is expected to tighten, but demand is also weak. In the long - term, the global supply - demand situation will suppress the price, and in the short - term, it will stabilize with the rebound of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and Sino - Canadian trade relations [3]. - For different participants: Traders with inventory can hedge against price drops by short - selling a small proportion; those seeking to build inventory can hedge on the futures or options market to prevent sudden price increases. Feed mills can also take similar hedging measures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The market expects a downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, which may tighten the fundamentals and support the price. The price has been oscillating at a high level between 1100 - 1160 cents/bu. Analysts' average estimate of the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bu/acre, a decrease from the September estimate. The export and ending inventory are expected to be adjusted downward. The current US soybean has a cost advantage over Brazilian soybeans, but there is still pressure on further price increases without large - scale purchases from China [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.02/bu, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.0886 million tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume since the beginning of the crop year was 8.89 million tons, lower than the previous year [18]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. The sowing in Argentina has started. China's procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to future weather conditions and China's procurement [26][27]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons [27]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The international rapeseed price has stabilized and rebounded due to Canada's biofuel production incentive plan and the rebound of oilseed soybean prices. The 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase in consumption demand of 2.06%. The trade volume may decline due to trade policies, and the inventory and stock - to - use ratio are increasing [52][53]. - As of November 2, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 188,400 tons. The cumulative exports from August 1 to November 2 were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory was 1.3187 million tons [53]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The soybean meal futures continued to oscillate. Although the Sino - US trade policy has changed, the cost of US soybeans is still higher, and the near - term supply is loose, suppressing the upward space. However, the overall import cost increase provides strong support for the price [63][64]. - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September and a 17.25% increase from October 2024. The cumulative import from January to October was 95.682 million tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - As of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to reach 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% in the 46th week (November 8 - 14) [86]. - The rapeseed crushing in coastal areas has basically stopped, with a crushing volume of 0 tons and an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - As of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline [101]. - As of November 13, the total soybean meal transaction was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 221,100 tons. The daily average transaction was 172,700 tons, a 43.35% increase. The total soybean meal pick - up was 900,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons [119]. 3.5 Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price ranged from 3010 - 3050 yuan/ton this week, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. The average basis in coastal markets was between - 21 and - 61 yuan/ton, with mixed changes compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan/ton [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pigs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The supply of pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second half of 2025 remains significant. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up, the boost may be limited due to the slow - down of economic development and changes in consumer preferences. The rebound space for hog prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the overall trend will be under pressure. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended operation is to short on rallies [3]. - **Eggs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure continues to exert downward pressure. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The egg price is expected to remain at a low level considering cost and profit issues. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to lead to insufficient demand absorption, and the overall situation remains under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Over - capacity and High - level Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026. The farming end's slaughter rhythm may affect the phased supply [10]. - **Weight Impact on Supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of pigs has increased, and the slaughter weight has continued to rise. With further cooling and a more obvious difference between fat and standard pig prices, the overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand Analysis**: As the weather gets colder, the downstream demand enters the peak season, and the slaughter volume shows a slow - growth trend. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness for concentrated slaughter is also low [23]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - **Farmers' Losses**: As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising model is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the model of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg [36]. - **Slow Capacity Reduction**: Farmers are pessimistic about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement, and the elimination of high - parity sows has increased [37]. - **Policy - Reserve Purchase and Sale**: The state reserve's purchase and sale of pork adjust market supply and demand and guide market sentiment to ensure the stable operation of the pig market. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices [44]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 basis of pigs in Henan and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 3 spreads are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Current Supply Situation**: Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened. The decline in replenishment in the third quarter corresponds to a decrease in newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline but remain at a high level year - on - year, with sufficient egg supply [73]. - **Cost Situation**: Recently, the feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. - **Demand Analysis**: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand has not been significantly boosted, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Substitute Price and Spread Analysis** - **Substitute Price**: The prices of major meats and 28 key vegetables are provided, which may affect egg demand [100]. - **Spread and Basis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of eggs and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 basis of eggs in Hebei are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both the hog and egg markets are in a downward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to decline in the future [2][3]. - For hogs, due to high levels of breeding sows, increased production performance, and high supply pressure in the second half of 2025, along with limited demand boost from economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences, the rebound space for hog prices is limited. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and weak demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For eggs, with the inventory of laying hens at a high level year - on - year, continuous supply pressure, and limited demand fluctuations affected by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the egg price is expected to remain low. The 01 contract is in the demand peak season, but high supply may lead to insufficient demand acceptance. The overall advice is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section - **Supply**: - Pork supply depends on the number of hog slaughter and slaughter weight. Since the import accounts for less than 5%, domestic production is the main source. The number of hog slaughter is determined by production capacity, and weight shows seasonal changes within the year. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [9][10]. - The overall slaughter weight is rising as the weather gets colder, and the entry of second - fattening hogs decreases. It is expected to continue rising as the weather further cools and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, pork consumption is related to income, population, and consumption habits; in the medium - term, it has obvious seasonality; in the short - term, it changes with festivals and price fluctuations. Currently, as the weather gets colder, the downstream demand is in the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. Second - fattening and frozen - product storage form short - term demand, but recently, the second - fattening entry is cautious, and the willingness to slaughter en masse is low [23]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model's cost is 12.41 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding industry is in a loss, and the production capacity reduction is slow. Breeders are pessimistic about the future, mainly replacing sows, and increasing the elimination of high - parity sows [36][37]. - **Policy**: - The state uses reserve purchases and sales to regulate market supply and demand and stabilize the hog market. Currently, the market is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, and the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [44]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - A series of data on hog spreads and basis are provided, including the basis of different contracts in Henan and various inter - contract spreads, with daily - updated data [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply**: - Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since the beginning of 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the new production in the fourth quarter will decline. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. Although the inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter, it will still be at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the culling situation [73]. - Recently, replenishment has been weak, the culling sentiment has declined, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is still abundant. The feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost is around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74][75]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the medium - and short - term, it has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand boost is not obvious, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - Data on egg spreads and basis are provided, including inter - contract spreads and the basis of different contracts in Hebei, with daily - updated data [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown continues, and the market focuses on the return of US soybean orders due to the implementation of China - US policy agreements. Domestically, the supply of near - month soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure will weaken as imports decline. The cost of imports supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 year is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and the downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is low, which is not conducive to the substitution of rapeseed meal. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Foreign Supply and Demand 3.1.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA report is expected to show a potential downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the 2025/26 year, which may reduce the ending inventory. The price of US soybeans has been oscillating at a high level, ranging from 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The export demand and domestic crushing demand need to be further observed. The current cost of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward pressure on prices remains. [16][17] 3.1.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, and Argentine sowing has started. The sowing progress in Brazil is behind last year due to local precipitation, but it is expected to continue to advance. The Chinese procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium to oscillate. The market will gradually focus on the weather in South America in the next two months. [26][27] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 year, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase of 6.11%. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%. The international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline due to trade policies. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio continue to increase. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade policies. [53] 3.2 CFTC Positions - The report provides data on CBOT soybean and soybean meal non - commercial long and short positions, total positions, and non - commercial net long positions and their proportions, which can reflect the market sentiment and expectations of investors. [42][44][46] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Domestic Import Situation - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The supply of soybean meal in the near - term is loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. However, the increase in import costs supports the price of soybean meal. [64] 3.3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Operating Rate - As of the week of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to increase to 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% respectively in the 46th week. The rapeseed pressing in coastal areas has basically stagnated. [86] 3.3.3 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans has increased, mainly due to the significant increase in CBOT soybean prices. The import cost of rapeseed from Canada and the pressing profit are also provided in the report. [93][100] 3.3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills increased by 511,600 tons to 7.6195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.97%. The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline. [101] 3.3.5 Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total trading volume of soybean meal in China was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase. The trading volume in the spot and forward - basis markets has improved. The total提货 volume of soybean meal decreased slightly. The downstream aquaculture is in the off - season, and the livestock and poultry breeding profit situation is also provided in the report. [119] 3.3.6 Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the basis of different contracts and regions, as well as the spread between different contracts. [13][115]