Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].

1月消费投资等经济数据再度出现明显疲软、或因季节性因素以及政策到期影响，整体经济整体增速过际放缓。同时反内卷政策效果明显，通胀指标有所起色，PPI 各项通缩压力有所缓和。 【宏观政策:政治局会议定调积级,反内卷政策持续发力】 会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性。增强灵活性预见他"。反内卷政策中服除"低价无序竞争"中的"低价"表达，转向依法治理元序 竞争,避免恶性价格战,鼓励企业以质量和服务竞争 【海外市场: 就业下降风险或超过通胀上升风险】 经济方面,7月非农数据确认美国就业市场显著走动,同时通胀持平前值，景气指数处于低位,经济下行风险或有抬头。 政策方面，8月央行年会美联储重新调整货币政策框架。使得9月降息都率大幅增加,预期年内有2-3次降息。此外关税政策反复较多，未来仍存不确定性。 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛 it 日期：2025-08-31 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛盾 【经济情况:7月数据回落】 9月美联储议息会议,以及国内经济数据 国债期货观点策略 | 2025-08-31 核心观点 | | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wait for short - selling opportunities for caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. Caustic soda is currently supported by peak - season expectations and procurement, with spot prices showing a firm trend. However, the 01 contract is in the off - season, and spot prices may fall again later. [3] - The caustic soda market in August was mainly driven by demand, showing a pattern of rising first and then falling. Looking forward, caustic soda is about to enter the seasonal peak season, and the growth of non - aluminum demand may further boost the near - term market. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and short - selling opportunities can be sought after the full release of price elasticity driven by this round of demand. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In August, the caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The early - stage rise was mainly driven by downstream demand, with the main contract SH2601 rising from a minimum of 2,521 yuan/ton to a high of 2,764 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.43%. The late - stage decline was due to the approaching delivery of the near - month 09 contract, with a large number of registered warrants in the Zhejiang region, suppressing the near - month contract. [13] - Overall, the caustic soda spot market was strong due to downstream demand and peak - season expectations. After the digestion of warrants for near - month delivery, the caustic soda futures are expected to continue to be strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this price increase cycle. [14] 3.2现货价格 (Spot Prices) - Data on the spot prices of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan on August 28, 2025, were presented. [19][21][30] 3.3价差 (Price Spreads) - Model price spreads, including the spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions, were provided. [31][35] - Regional price spreads, such as the spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions, were also presented. [37][38][39] 3.4供应端 (Supply Side) - Domestic caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. In July, domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6296 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.31%. The expected production in August is 3.4074 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The operating rate in August was 79.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.69% compared to July. [44] - Information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda on a weekly basis was provided. [45] - A detailed list of the maintenance status of various caustic soda enterprises, including those in shutdown, relocation, and maintenance, as well as their recovery and planned maintenance situations, was given. The total impact on the 100% equivalent production in August is expected to be 142,960 tons. [52] - The operating conditions of flake caustic soda plants, including normal operation, under - load operation, and planned maintenance, were presented. [57] 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - In July 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 50,842 tons, a year - on - year increase of 100.50% and a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 232,310 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96.21%. Exports were 30,78 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.61% and a month - on - month increase of 5.79%. The cumulative exports from January to July were 2.0333 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.79%. [58] - Information on the imports and exports of solid caustic soda in July 2025 was also provided, with imports of 643.49 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 25.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.59%) and exports of 63,849.67 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.30% and a year - on - year increase of 99.89%). [66] 3.6需求端 (Demand Side) - In August, the domestic alumina market price stopped rising and started to fall. The profit of alumina was acceptable, with high production willingness and high operating capacity. The demand for alumina in the north decreased slightly, while that in the south increased significantly. The overall spot trading volume decreased, and the price was stable with a slight decline. As of August 26, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 11.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 9.52 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. [71] - In August, the domestic viscose staple fiber market price recovered. The monthly average price was 12,902 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton (0.80%). The cost side continued to decline, the inventory level decreased, and the demand support was strong. [71] 3.7库存 (Inventory) - In August, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory first increased and then decreased, with limited overall changes, while the flake caustic soda inventory increased. The inventory in Shandong, the benchmark region, had limited pressure, and enterprises had a strong willingness to raise prices. As of August 29, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 262,100 tons, a slight decrease compared to August 1. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.13%. [98] 3.8估值 (Valuation) - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. In August, the cost side strengthened slightly, and the profit level increased due to the rising spot prices. The industrial salt market first stabilized and then rose, with the monthly average price slightly lower than the previous month. The price of thermal coal first rose and then fell. [103] 3.9耗氯下游 (Chlorine - consuming Downstream) - Data on the operating rates, prices, and comprehensive profits of PVC powder, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane were provided. [128][129][132] 3.10烧碱供需平衡表 (Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Balance Sheet) - The supply - demand balance sheets of caustic soda in 2024 and 2025, including production, imports and exports, consumption, and inventory, were presented, along with their year - on - year changes. [156]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The CSI 300 Index and the CSI 1000 Index are in an upward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to rise in the future. The short - term impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on the market has been digested, and domestic policy goals have been initially achieved. The US may cut interest rates in the second half of the year, which could open up more domestic policy space. With the appreciation of the RMB, foreign capital and repatriated funds are attracted. The domestic economy has policy support at the bottom and is driven by economic recovery and high - tech industries at the top. The "national team" has announced share - increases, and relevant departments are promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market [8]. - Technology remains the main driving force, with the rise concentrated in technology blue - chip stocks, showing some extreme trading structure characteristics. There is still room for the re - evaluation of Chinese assets, but its sustainability requires the support of macro - policies. Futures should be intervened during pull - backs [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Suggestions - Suggestions include seizing the structural opportunities of the semi - annual report performance wave, focusing on technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power with stable profitability, and paying attention to the dynamic allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [2]. 3.2 Market Performance - In August, global indices mainly rose. Domestic indices generally outperformed overseas indices, with the STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Among the Shenwan primary industries, most sectors rose, with communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors leading the way. Only the banking sector declined [13]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Situation 3.3.1 Overseas Situation - In the US, employment data in July slowed more than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Inflation pressure continued in July, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, and the expectation of a future interest - rate cut will continue to be affected by economic data [23]. - In the Eurozone, the CPI remained the same as the previous value in July. The service PMI in July increased and remained above the boom - bust line, with the service PMI at 51.0, the manufacturing PMI at 49.8, and the composite PMI at 51.0 [24]. 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - In July, the official manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, at 49.3%. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, still above the critical point [35]. - Export growth continued to increase in July, with the export amount increasing 7.2% year - on - year. The total export in the first seven months was 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The future Sino - US tariff game will affect import - export data and A - share risk appetite [36]. - The growth rate of social retail sales continued to slow down in July, with a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The growth rate of the automobile sub - item turned negative, at - 1.5%. The CPI returned to zero in July, and the PPI remained negative, with the CPI at 0.0% year - on - year and the PPI at - 3.6% year - on - year [37]. - From January to July, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment slowed down to 1.6%, and real - estate investment continued to decline, with the growth rate of real - estate development investment at - 12.0% [45]. - Real - estate data remained weak. From January to July, the growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 12.0%, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing was 4.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the newly - started area was 19.5% [46]. - The total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size remained negative. In July, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year, and from January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased 1.7% year - on - year [57]. - At the end of July, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 9.0%. The growth rate of M2 continued to rise, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. In July, M2 increased 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 increased 5.6% year - on - year [58]. 3.4 Liquidity - Since May, the capital interest rate (DR007) has remained at 1.4%, and future policy developments should be continuously monitored [62]. - The market trading was active in August, with the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan on multiple trading days. The margin trading balance continued to rise in August and has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 Index Valuation - In August, the index mainly fluctuated upward, and the valuation center also rose. The PE quantiles showed a differentiated trend. As of August 29, the PE of the ChiNext Index was 41.01, with a quantile of 35.55 since 2015, in the medium - low historical level. The PE of the STAR 50 Index was 185.69, with a quantile of 99.93 since its listing in 2020, at a historical high [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [7600] price level for the 12601 contract. The demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with marginal improvement in the pattern and short - term upward drivers. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new capacity being put into production and high existing production loads [6]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, different hedging strategies are recommended. For example, factories and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and concerns about PE price drops can buy put options and short futures contracts on the futures market; traders and end - customers can take corresponding actions according to their purchase and inventory management needs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - **Standard Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has risen synchronously, and the basis has weakened slightly. The basis in East China has weakened by 10 to around - 100 yuan/ton, in North China by 30 to around - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China by 30 to 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Non - standard Basis**: The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread has fallen back to the previous low of around - 10 this week. The L - PP01 spread has risen steadily and is currently close to 300 yuan/ton. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and the demand for agricultural films starts in September [42]. 3.2. Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest production capacity share (67.22%), with the East China oil - based cost at 7443 yuan/ton; the coal - based process (18.82%) is an important supplement with relatively high profits, and the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost is 5250 yuan/ton [54][55]. - **Production Profits**: This week, oil prices continued to fluctuate, and the oil - based end profits have recovered compared with the previous period. The Northeast Asian ethylene price has remained stable, and the profit from purchasing ethylene for production has weakened recently. The coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains high, while the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under tight supply and demand [57]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of August 2025, the newly added domestic PE capacity is 370.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.38%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 613 million tons, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 17.17%. This week, the PE production was 61.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.31 million tons compared with the previous week, and the operating rate decreased by 8.1% to 78.72% due to many device overhauls [78][79][80]. 3.3. US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price**: The northwest European price is at a high level, especially for LD and ED. The US dollar price in the Chinese market has shown mixed trends; the Southeast Asian price is stable with weak demand, and the South Asian price has declined due to poor rainy - season demand [102]. - **Import Profit**: The import windows for LD and some HD have opened, and the market offers have increased compared with the previous period [111]. 3.4. Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: As the peak season approaches, the demand is gradually recovering. Some agricultural film enterprises have seen a slight increase in orders, but it is still in the off - season and weaker than previous years. The packaging film operation rate has increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the operation rates of pipes, blow - molding, and injection - molding have also changed to different extents [128]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of plastic film products such as agricultural film and packaging film are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand, but specific profit data are not comprehensively summarized in the text. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased by 5.74 million tons to 50.19 million tons, with the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increasing by 5.8 million tons and the coal - based inventory decreasing by 0.06 million tons. The social inventory has decreased by 1.21 million tons to 55.65 million tons. The downstream restocking and transactions are weak, with the upstream inventory accumulating and the social inventory continuing to decline [151]. 3.6. Position, Transaction, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The positions of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 577,012, 571,625, and 600,000 respectively [161]. - **Transaction Volume**: The transaction volumes of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 900,022, 800,000, and 1,119,745 respectively [162][163][164]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L registered warehouse receipts on August 22, 2025, is also provided in the document, but specific analysis is not further elaborated [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the UR601 contract, urea is likely to decline in the short - term but has limited downside space, with support at the 1700 price level [3]. - The reasons include increasing domestic plant maintenance plans with limited impact on overall supply, high production and operation rates year - on - year; domestic demand entering the off - season, limited overall support from industrial compound fertilizer demand; weakening cost support, with urea cost support moving down to around 1500 - 1600; and the gradual implementation of export policies, with attention on the specific export volume later [3]. - Urea is in a pattern with upward pressure and downward support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - side Logic**: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but coal - based production costs are at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [7]. - **Supply - side Logic**: Recently, domestic maintenance devices have increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. Domestic production remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply remains loose [7]. - **Demand - side Logic**: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, this week, the market reported that China has a new third - batch of export quotas, with an estimated quantity of 70 - 100 tons, and the total export quota this year has reached over 4 million tons. From the current port inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [7]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - **Spot Price**: This week, the domestic urea spot market stopped falling and rose, with the average price in the mainstream regions rising by about 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. However, the domestic demand has continued to weaken, and the price increase lasted for a short time [24]. - **Regional Price Difference**: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range [36]. - **Futures Price**: With the implementation of the third - batch of export quota news, the speculative sentiment in the market has subsided, and the UR01 contract has declined weakly in the premium pattern [8]. - **Price Difference/Base Difference/Monthly Difference**: This week, the 9 - 1 price difference has strengthened by 3 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the rise in spot prices and the decline of the futures market, the base difference has strengthened. For example, the base difference of the 01 contract in Henan has strengthened by 48 yuan/ton compared with last week [92]. 3.3 Urea Profit - **Coal - based Production**: Recently, the coal price in the production area has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of coal - based urea has increased slightly [65]. - **Gas - based Production**: The natural gas price under the agreement is stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has remained stable [65]. 3.4 Urea and Other Fertilizer Ratios - Currently, the ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers are at a relatively low level compared with previous years [69]. 3.5 Overseas Price and Price Difference - India has carried out a new round of tenders, and with China's clearer policy of allowing more urea exports, the international urea price has fallen this week [84]. 3.6 Urea Production, Operation, and Inventory - **Production and Operation**: According to the Longzhong data, this week, the domestic urea production was 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from last week, and the operation rate was 83.99%, an increase of 0.77%. According to the Baichuan data, the production was 1.3865 million tons, an increase of 8000 tons from the previous period, and the operation rate was 84.72%, an increase of 0.49% [95][103]. - **Device Investment and Maintenance**: As of August 2025, the newly - invested production capacity this year is 1.85 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 2.45%. It is estimated that the newly - added production capacity in 2025 will be 4.94 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55%. This week, the domestic urea device maintenance loss was 179,000 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week [108][111]. - **Inventory**: This week, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, and the port inventory was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from last week [160]. 3.7 Urea Downstream Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: This week, the compound fertilizer market price was stable, the operation rate decreased by 2.64% to 40.84%, and the inventory increased by 63,000 tons to 889,500 tons compared with last week [132]. - **Melamine**: This week, the melamine production was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 1600 tons from last week, and the operation rate was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22% [140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR2601 contract for sugar is expected to be prone to short - term decline but with limited downside space, finding support at the 5500 price level. Globally, the sugar supply - demand remains in a competitive situation. In the 2025/26 season, major producing countries are expected to increase production. In Brazil, the 2025/26 crushing season is in its peak, and with an abundant harvest expected, the market is mainly in a stable operation, though ethanol mixing has raised the price floor, providing short - term support for raw sugar. In China, the production and sales scale is relatively fast, but the third - party inventory situation is complex. With the increase in the arrival of raw sugar in recent months, the supply side remains loose. Terminal consumption has improved to some extent with the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling [3]. - It is recommended to conduct interval trading with a high - selling strategy for the SR2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5500 yuan per ton, and near this cost, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price and Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: This week, the ICE raw sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then rose. The basis between futures and spot slightly recovered, but the basis value slightly declined. As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 240 yuan/ton, and that of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 316 yuan/ton [8][13][14]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads among different futures contracts, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads, showed certain changes this week. The price spreads between different regions' spot white sugar also had corresponding fluctuations. The spread between starch sugar and white sugar was also presented in the report [8]. 3.2 International Supply - **Brazil**: The 2024/26 sugar - crushing season in Brazil has a fixed output of 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared to the previous period, but still within a historically high - output range. As of the first half of July in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in July showed an increase, and based on the weather in the second half of July and the first half of August, the short - term production is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 41 million tons. As of August 8, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil's São Paulo region was 65.57%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.51 cents per pound. As of August 13, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons from the previous week [33][34][61]. - **India and Thailand**: India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, reaching about 34.9 million tons. Thailand's 2024/25 season production reached 10.0418 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [81][86]. - **Global**: The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season has a marginally tightened loose pattern compared to the previous period. The 2025/26 season is expected to turn to a loose pattern. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus [96]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Production**: The 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in China has ended, with a total output of 11.1621 million tons. Guangxi's output was 6.46 million tons, and Yunnan's was 2.4188 million tons. Other regions also increased production due to the expansion of planting areas [105]. - **Import**: The quota - free import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, and the arrival of sugar continued to increase. It is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. The import of syrup and premixed powder is also under control, with the import of items under tariff code 170290 remaining at a low level, while the import of items under 2106.90.6 increased significantly [116][117][138]. 3.4 Sales and Inventory - **Sales**: As of the end of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5961 million tons, with a sales rate of 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the previous year. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 3.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons, with a sales rate of 85.01%, 2.51 percentage points higher than the previous year [150]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June 2025, the industrial inventory in China was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [154][161]. 4. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and also sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders looking to build inventory and buy sugar at low prices can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders with inventory aiming to sell at high prices can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises in need of raw materials worried about price increases can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises with high raw material inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The corn market is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Due to high yields, imported corn supplements the market supply, and the overall supply is sufficient. The price difference between corn and wheat remains in the substitutable range, with wheat being widely used as a substitute for corn. Alongside the substitution of millet and other grains, these factors suppress the corn price. The planting area of new crops is high, and the expected yield per unit is good, so the new crop yield is still expected to be abundant. The lowest planting cost of the new crop on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift downward. Under multiple negative factors, it is expected that c2509 will oscillate downward, and the later price center is expected to shift downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Corn Supply - **Supply**: The domestic corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the growth of new - season corn is good. The current main variable is the weather during the growth period, especially rainfall. The NDVI data shows that the growth of corn in Northeast China is significantly better than in previous years, while in North China, although affected by extreme weather, the growth is still around the annual average. Overall, the expected yield per unit of corn in the main production areas is good [9][10]. - **Import**: The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the total corn import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The USDA estimates that China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season will be 4 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][19][20]. - **Substitutes**: Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes is decreasing. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is near parity, and wheat has a high cost - effectiveness, exerting great pressure on the feed - use substitution of corn. In June 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 23.83% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 32.71% year - on - year [29][30]. Demand - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, the parent - stock of white - feather broilers, and the hatching volume of laying - hen chicks are all at high levels, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs is at a low level, the profit of broiler breeding is seasonally rising, and the profit of laying - hen breeding has deteriorated [34][35][36]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has rebounded to a neutral level, with Shandong and Heilongjiang showing relatively high rates. The corn starch production has also increased, but the downstream提货量 is low, and the production profit is severely in the red. The consumption of corn by corn alcohol enterprises has slowed down, and the operating rate has reached a new low [55][56]. Inventory - **Corn Trade and Inventory**: The inventory of trade channels and downstream users is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 8, the inventory of the four northern ports continued to decline, and the domestic trade inventory of southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises continued to decrease, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises continued to reach a new high in the past eight years [83][84][85]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of corn 01, 05, 09 contracts at Jinzhou Port and the basis data of starch 01, 05, 09 contracts in Jilin area on August 14, 2025 [117][119][121]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread data of corn 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and the spread data of starch 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, as well as the spread data between corn and starch 01, 05, 09 contracts [127][128][129]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 14, 2025, the corn warehouse receipt quantity was 222,298 hands, and the corn starch warehouse receipt quantity was 25,000 hands [140]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - **Traders**: For procurement management, build inventory and seek to buy corn at low prices. Use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option at an entry price of 8. For inventory management, sell corn at high prices and use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: For procurement management, when in need of corn raw materials and worried about price increases, use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option. For inventory management, when the raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, China's national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, but the consumer side still needed promotion. Fiscal financing and direct financing dividends under low - interest rates supported the total social financing, yet private - sector credit repair faced challenges. Abroad, the US economic soft - landing uncertainty increased, and the euro - zone economic situation also had its own characteristics. The RMB exchange rate showed an appreciation trend in August, but two - way fluctuations would continue [3][36][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **Consumption**: In July, China's total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2.84228 trillion yuan, a 4.8% increase. By consumption type, in July, retail sales of goods were 342.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and catering revenue was 45.04 billion yuan, a 1.1% increase [20]. - **Investment**: From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. National real - estate development investment was 536.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [20]. - **Foreign Trade**: In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, a 1.6% decrease [6]. - **PMI**: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [8]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - In July 2025, fiscal financing and direct - financing dividends under low - interest rates supported the total social financing, but private - sector credit repair faced challenges. In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.4 trillion yuan. At the end of July, the social financing scale stock was 43.126 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%. In July, new RMB loans were - 50 billion yuan, the first negative growth since July 2005 [36]. - At the end of July 2025, the balance of broad - money M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% [36]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - In July, China's consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% month - on - month. Core CPI continued to rise year - on - year, up 0.8%. The producer price index (PPI) was down 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy showed initial results, with prices in some industries stabilizing [41][42]. 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - **United States**: In July, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, but there were differences among committee members [7][9]. - **Eurozone**: In July, the euro - zone HICP was 2.0% year - on - year, and the core HICP was 2.3% year - on - year [16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - In August 2025, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to appreciate. The exchange - rate strengthening was driven by factors such as the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, the improvement of domestic economic data, and the release of the backlog of US - dollar settlement demand. In the future, the two - way fluctuation pattern would continue [62].