Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].

Employment Data - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 and down from the revised July figure of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August, marking the highest level since 2021[3] - Long-term unemployed individuals (over 27 weeks) reached 1.9 million, an increase of 385,000 compared to the previous year[3] Federal Reserve Policy - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts has become more certain, with a 25 basis point cut already priced in by the market[3] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials regarding the extent of future rate cuts remains, particularly if upcoming employment data shows a larger employment gap[3] Domestic Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.8%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity[3] - The production index rose to 50.8%, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated manufacturing expansion[3] Global Economic Context - At the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months due to a slowdown in the labor market and economic growth[3] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2% year-on-year in July, indicating ongoing inflation concerns despite the Fed's tightening stance[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Pig Market**: The upside potential for pig prices is limited, with pressure at the 15,500 price level. The supply of pigs is expected to remain high in the second half of 2025 due to the persistently high inventory of breeding sows and the recovery of production performance. Although demand is expected to seasonally increase, the boost may be limited due to the slowdown in economic development and changes in consumer preferences. Policy disturbances and market sentiment may cause short - term strength in pig prices, but the upside is constrained by sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [3]. - **Egg Market**: Eggs are in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure persists. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The 10 - contract demand is in the decline stage after the peak season, and with high supply, there is insufficient support. It is recommended to short on rallies. Overall, egg prices are expected to remain weak, and the JD2510 contract price is expected to be under pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Pig Part - **Supply Analysis** - **Capacity and Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level, leading to continuous over - capacity. The supply in 2025 will be at a high level, and the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply changes should be noted [11]. - **Weight and Supply**: The slaughter weight has rebounded as the farmers' slaughter rhythm has slowed down. With the upcoming autumn and winter peak seasons, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may rise, and the weight is expected to remain at a relatively high level [12]. - **Demand Analysis** - **Seasonal Demand**: As the weather cools down, downstream demand has slightly increased, and the slaughter volume has shown a slow growth trend. The boost from holidays should be monitored. Secondary fattening and frozen product storage can form short - term demand, but currently, the market is still cautious, and there is not much secondary fattening [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - **Cost**: As of September 4, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 12.95 yuan/kg, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets is 14.75 yuan/kg [29]. - **Profit and Capacity**: The breeding enterprises' profits are acceptable, and the capacity is relatively stable. The farmers are still cautious about the future market, with sow replenishment mainly for group - farm replacement and low piglet replenishment in the off - season [29]. - **Policy Analysis** - **State Reserve Policy**: The state reserve purchase and release of pork are used to regulate market supply and demand and ensure market stability. In case of excessive price drops, the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [32]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - Various spread and basis data of pig futures contracts are provided, including the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc., which can reflect the price differences between different contracts at different times [50]. Egg Part - **Supply Analysis** - **Current Supply**: The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. The inventory of laying hens has been at a high level since the second half of 2024, and the egg - laying rate has seasonally rebounded. Recently, the number of culled hens has increased, and the culling age has decreased, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent [64][65]. - **Future Supply Expectation**: High replenishment enthusiasm since the second half of 2024 means that the number of newly - opened laying hens will be high before the third quarter of this year. With relatively limited culling, the inventory of laying hens will remain at a high level before the third quarter [64]. - **Demand Analysis** - **Long - term and Short - term Demand**: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a stable growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is good, but the overall demand support is limited [75][76]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the peak - season demand provides some support, the oversupply will continue to put pressure on egg prices. The rebound space is expected to be limited, and the JD2510 contract price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - **Cost Analysis** - Due to the low feed price, the breeding cost of eggs is at a relatively low level, around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [66]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - Various spread and basis data of egg futures contracts are provided, such as the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc., which can help analyze the price differences between different contracts [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR601 contract of white sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, supported at the price of 5500 yuan [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 season in Brazil is at its peak, with a high - yield expectation. The main sugar - producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to increase production. The global sugar supply - demand pattern remains stable [3]. - Domestically, the current production and sales progress is normal, with third - party inventory and an increase in recent imports. Entering September, new sugar will be on the market, and the supply - sales pattern will remain stable. The demand side has started stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, but the market is cautious due to high prices [3]. - In the medium - to long - term, the global sugar supply pattern is expected to end, and prices may decline. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range, but pay attention to the cost support at 5500 yuan. Near the cost level, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P - 5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链操作建议 (Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions) | Participant | Behavior | Concern | Position | Hedging Instrument | Quantity | Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar Mill | Inventory Management | Fear of price decline | Long | SR601, SR601P5400 | 100, 50 | 5800, 40 | | Trader | Procurement Management | Seek low - price purchase | Long | SR601C5800, SR601P5400 | 50, 50 | 31, 40 | | Trader | Inventory Management | Seek high - price sale | Long | SR601, SR601P5400 | 100, 50 | 5800, 40 | | Sugar - using Enterprise | Procurement Management | Fear of price increase | Short | SR601C5800, SR601P5400 | 50, 50 | 31, 40 | | Sugar - using Enterprise | Inventory Management | High raw - material inventory, fear of price decline | Short | SR601, SR601P5400 | 100, 50 | 5800, 40 | It is also recommended to follow UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales, and inventory data, and customs import data [5]. 3.2日糖周度数据汇总 (Daily Sugar Weekly Data Summary) - **Futures Prices**: This week, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures were 5523 yuan/ton, 5509 yuan/ton, and 5541 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price differences of - 81 yuan/ton, - 58 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the prices of Nanning, Liuzhou, and other places' white sugar decreased slightly, with Nanning down 30 yuan/ton and Liuzhou down 30 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 357 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [8]. - **Import Costs**: This week, the import costs of Brazil and Thailand decreased, with Brazil down 223.74 yuan/ton and Thailand down 231.4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1134 to 12782 [8]. 3.3白糖主要市场价格及价差 (Main Market Prices and Spreads of White Sugar) - **ICE Raw Sugar Futures Prices**: This week, raw sugar futures prices mainly declined due to expected production increases in India and Thailand and an accelerated crushing process in Brazil [13]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Prices**: This week, Zhengzhou sugar futures dropped significantly, with the center of gravity moving down by nearly 100 points, affected by the decline in raw sugar prices and the relaxation of Thailand's syrup import policy [13]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the white sugar spot market prices declined slightly. The prices in the main producing areas of Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, and the sales areas followed suit. The terminal sales were slow [13]. - **Basis**: This week, the spot price decline was less than that of futures, and the basis increased slightly. As of September 5, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 357 yuan/ton [14]. 3.4国际供给 (International Supply) 3.4.1巴西生产情况 (Brazilian Production Situation) - The 2024/25 season in Brazil produced 4017 tons of sugar, a 5.3% decrease from the previous season but still a high - level output [35]. - As of the first half of August 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 2288.6 tons, a 4.67% year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing [36]. - The 2025/26 season is expected to increase production, with a predicted output of about 4100 tons. The supply will remain loose, and raw sugar prices may be under pressure [37]. - In the first half of August, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 361.5 tons, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. The cane crushing volume, ATR, and sugar - making ratio all changed compared to the same period last year [47]. - As of August 29, the ethanol - gasoline ratio in Brazil was 65.79%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 15.12 cents/pound [66]. - As of August 31, Brazil's sugar inventory was 803.0192 tons, at a relatively low level in recent years. In the first four weeks of August, the export volume was 281.39 tons, a 0.27% year - on - year increase [77]. 3.4.2印度及泰国生产情况 (Production Situation in India and Thailand) - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, India's sugar production was about 2610 - 2620 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery, with an estimated output of about 3490 - 3500 tons, due to favorable monsoons, increased planting areas, and a raised minimum cane purchase price [84]. - **Thailand**: The 2024/25 season in Thailand produced 1004.18 tons of sugar, a significant increase from the previous season. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production, with estimates from different institutions ranging from 1025 to 1150 tons [89]. 3.5国内供给 (Domestic Supply) - **Beet Sugar Pressing**: The 2025/26 season's beet sugar pressing is expected to start in mid - to late September. The estimated sugar output in Inner Mongolia may be above 70 tons, and that in Xinjiang is expected to remain around 80 tons [109]. - **Sugar Production**: The 2024/25 season in China produced 1116.21 tons of sugar. Guangxi produced 646.50 tons, and Yunnan produced 241.88 tons. Other regions also increased production [110]. - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: The August forecast from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs remained unchanged from the previous month. Extreme rainfall in some areas may affect production. Sugar consumption has recovered seasonally, and imports have increased recently but are expected to remain within the annual plan [110]. 3.6进口 (Imports) - **Quota - within Imports**: The annual quota - within import volume is 194.5 tons, with a 15% tariff [125]. - **Out - of - Quota Imports**: The out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. The import cost is affected by factors such as raw sugar prices, regional premiums, and exchange rates [125]. - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume was 74 tons, a significant increase from June and the same period last year. It is expected to continue increasing in the third quarter [125]. - **Import Syrup and Premixed Powder**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has been tightened, but there was an increase in June - July. In July, the total import volume was 15.97 tons, a year - on - year decrease [147]. 3.7销售情况 (Sales Situation) - **Seasonal Demand**: There are two peak demand seasons for white sugar annually: the summer cold - drink season and the Spring Festival stocking season [157]. - **Recent Sales**: The market is purchasing as needed, with low stocking enthusiasm. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the rigid demand has slightly increased, but the sales are still slower than last year [157]. - **Sales Volume**: As of August, the cumulative sales volume in Guangxi was 575.63 tons, a year - on - year increase, and the sales rate was 89.04%. In Yunnan, the cumulative sales volume was 208.23 tons, and the sales rate was 86.09% [110][160]. 3.8库存情况 (Inventory Situation) - **Industrial Inventory**: Industrial inventory is calculated as the cumulative production minus the cumulative sales. Usually, the inventory pressure is highest in April [163]. - **Domestic De - stocking**: As of August 2025, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 70.87 tons, a year - on - year decrease, and in Yunnan was 33.64 tons, a year - on - year increase. The third - party inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan also increased [164].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has started as the US employment growth in August was near - stagnant, with non - farm payrolls increasing only 22,000, far below expectations. A 25 - basis - point cut is fully priced in the market, and there's a possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3][50]. - In August, China's economic indicators such as the comprehensive PMI index showed a month - on - month recovery, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level continued to expand [3]. - In July, China's national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and new achievements in high - quality development [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **Industrial Supply**: In July, China's industrial added - value data showed different trends in various sectors. For example, the mining industry had a certain growth rate, while the manufacturing and other sectors also had their own performance characteristics [10]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. Residential investment decreased by 10.9%. Newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales amount also declined [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 1.6%, lower than expected and with a month - on - month decline [18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In July, China's social consumer goods retail总额 was 380 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.7%. By consumption type, commodity retail sales and catering income had different growth rates [18]. - **Business Climate Index**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded, indicating an expansion of the economic prosperity level [3]. - **Import and Export Data**: In July, China's goods trade import and export volume was 3.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.7%. Exports showed a good momentum, and imports also had a certain growth [6]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan. In July, the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan. The stock of social financing scale at the end of July was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 9% [37]. - **Credit Market**: From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. In July, new RMB loans were - 500 million yuan, the first negative growth since July 2005 [37]. - **Money Supply**: At the end of July 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.8%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 11.8% [37]. 3.3 Price Indicators - **CPI**: In July, China's consumer price index was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year, while core CPI continued to rise [41]. - **PPI**: In July, China's industrial producer price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers also decreased [41]. 3.4 Overseas Situation - **Employment**: In August, US employment growth was near - stagnant, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, a new high since 2021. Long - term unemployed people increased by 385,000 compared to last year [3][50]. - **European Economy**: No detailed and specific content on the European economy was provided other than some related data trends in the unemployment rate and retail sales index [56][58]. 3.5 Other Situations - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable and rising pattern. The trend was driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, China's economic fundamentals, and the central bank's market management [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The cotton market is in an oscillating upward phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. In the short term, the macro - sentiment is improving, demand is seasonally picking up, and social inventory is continuously decreasing, providing phased support. In the medium to long term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving, domestic production may remain high, demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand situation is also expected to improve. Therefore, the short - term cotton price is supported, and the medium - to - long - term center is expected to move up. It is recommended to be long after adjustments [6]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the pandemic, cotton consumption was affected, while production remained high, leading to inventory accumulation and a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was high, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable. In 2025/26, production is expected to be high, demand may recover, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. According to the August data of the Cotton Information Network, in 2025/26, production is expected to be high, consumption will slightly decrease, imports will recover, and the ending inventory will increase [12]. - **New cotton growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached a recent high. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the new cotton growth was generally in good condition. Some hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has started to be harvested. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The market is in a de - stocking period, and the commercial inventory has significantly decreased. However, the industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is not low. There are concerns about potential tightness in the phased structural supply. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [24][27]. - **Import situation**: The domestic cotton production and sales have a gap, and imported cotton is needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. In July 2025, the cotton import volume was 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase from the previous month and a 73.2% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 52 million tons, a 74.2% decrease from the same period last year [34][37]. Downstream Demand - **Overall situation**: Overseas interest rate cuts are beneficial to demand, and the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations is expected to improve the foreign trade situation. Domestic policies are boosting the economy, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover. However, recently, new orders for downstream gauze are insufficient, the operating load is still low, and the finished - product inventory is still at a high level year - on - year, indicating pressure in the industrial chain operation [42]. - **Export and retail data**: In July 2025, the export of textiles and clothing was 2.6766 billion US dollars, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease and a 2.01% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export was 1.0041 billion US dollars, a 0.63% year - on - year increase. In July, the retail sales of clothing, hats, and knitted textiles were 980.1 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year increase and a 24.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 831.1 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [43][45]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - In 2023, the state reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stabilizing effect of the state reserve cotton on the market [49]. Global Supply and Demand - **Global situation**: In the 2024/26 period, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will significantly recover, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will slightly rise. In 2025/26, global production is expected to decrease, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the harvest period with an optimistic yield expectation, while the major producers in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growing period. Some US cotton - producing areas are experiencing drought, and the sowing in India is behind schedule [58]. - **US situation**: In the 2024/25 period, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to decrease, the yield per unit is expected to decline, but production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but future demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [59]. - **Other countries**: In the 2024/25 period, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. As of August 30, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 period was 10.847 million hectares, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. Spread and Basis - The data on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5, 9 - 1, 5 - 9 spreads) and basis (such as 01, 05, 09 basis) are provided, showing their historical trends and fluctuations [73][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - demand of PVC continues the extremely weak trend, with high - level production supply, weak domestic and export demand, and continuous accumulation of social inventory, which has now reached a level close to that of the same period last year [3]. - For traders, terminal customers, and production enterprises with inventory, it is recommended to short - hedge futures based on the weak reality. For those who need to purchase PVC, it is recommended to purchase as needed, and to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation Supply - In August, the overall PVC production showed an increasing trend. Although maintenance caused a certain reduction in supply, the release of new production capacity of 500,000 tons led to an overall increase in production [6]. - In 2025, the first - quarter production capacity of 300,000 tons was put into operation. Fujian Wanhua's 600,000 - ton capacity was included in production on August 2. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be 6.37%, and the pressure of production capacity release remains high [8]. - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. There were fewer maintenance plans in the first ten - day period, with the start - up reaching around 79 - 80. In the middle and late ten - day periods, maintenance increased, and the start - up dropped to around 72 - 38 [8]. Demand - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. Production is weak in the high - temperature summer season [9]. - This week, the sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.17% month - on - month and increased by 9.13% year - on - year. As of August 17, the final anti - dumping duty decision on PVC in India is waiting for the announcement of the Indian Ministry of Finance, estimated to be announced and implemented in about 20 - 30 days. The prices in the Chinese mainland have generally increased by 46 - 62 US dollars/ton, while those in Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Chinese Taipei have decreased. In the short term, there is a certain rush - to - export performance. Pay attention to the implementation time of the Indian anti - dumping duty, which will have a negative impact on China's exports if implemented [9]. Inventory - As of August 28, the original sample inventory in East China was 445,400 tons, an increase of 3.44% from the previous period and a decrease of 3.91% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 766,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The sample inventory in South China was 52,500 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous period and an increase of 44.23% year - on - year. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. Raw Materials - **Lancoke**: In August, the Lancoke price rose slightly twice. The price of medium - sized Lancoke in Shaanxi increased from 606 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 645 yuan/ton, a 6.6% increase. The start - up rate of Lancoke increased from 53.65% at the beginning of the month to 56.7%. In the future, with the end of some enterprise maintenance and the weakening of coal prices, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: In August, the calcium carbide market price showed a flat "V" - shaped trend, with the end - of - month price rising compared to the beginning. The average start - up load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased in the first ten - day period, then rebounded and stabilized. In the future, most calcium carbide start - ups may remain stable, but the increase in start - up may be limited [73]. - **Caustic soda**: In August, the price center of liquid caustic soda moved up. The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased from 820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 870 yuan/ton, a 6.1% increase. The start - up of caustic soda decreased from 83.9% at the beginning of the month to 82.4%. In the future, it is expected that the short - term liquid caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.2 Monthly Price Data Changes - Futures prices: V2601 decreased from 5,176 yuan/ton at the end of July to 4,907 yuan/ton on August 29, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton; AS60E decreased from 5,469 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton [14]. - PVC spot prices: The calcium - carbide method prices in East, South, North, and Northwest China all decreased to varying degrees; the ethylene - method price in East China decreased from 5,100 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [14]. - Prices of related products in the PVC industry chain: The prices of Lancoke, ethylene, and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the prices of calcium carbide in Shandong and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Inner Mongolia decreased [14]. - Spreads: The V2601 - 2605 spread remained unchanged at - 293 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased from - 355 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [14]. - Profits: The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (northwest integrated chlor - alkali) decreased from 590.91 yuan/ton to 376.61 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (north - China purchased calcium carbide) decreased from 169 yuan/ton to 19.35 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - method (east - China purchased VCM) increased from 5.20 yuan/ton to 27.38 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Disk Review and Disk Data - **This month's market review**: In August, the PVC price first oscillated and then weakened under the increasing supply - demand pressure. By the afternoon of August 29, the price dropped to around 4,907, a 4.74% decrease from the beginning of the month [19]. - **Disk data performance**: After the main contract shifted to 01, the 01 basis in East China was around - 280; the 1 - 5 spread remained weak at around - 293. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.195 million lots, a record high. The registered warrants increased from 583,000 lots at the beginning of the month to around 841,000 lots at the end of the month [20][21]. 3.4 Spreads and Profits Regional Spreads and Quality Spreads - **Regional spreads**: The spread between East - and South - China calcium - carbide method first strengthened from around - 150 to around - 50 and then returned to the initial level; the spread between East - and North - China calcium - carbide method weakened from - 45 to around - 83 [37]. - **Ethylene - calcium - carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium - carbide spread strengthened from 305 to around 373 [37]. Profits - The profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in Northwest China (integrated with self - owned power plant) and the profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in North China (purchased calcium carbide) both decreased; the profit of ethylene - method PVC (purchased VCM) increased [14]. 3.5 Related Products in the Industrial Chain Calcium - Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Lancoke is the raw material for calcium carbide. In August, the price of Lancoke in Shaanxi increased slightly, and the start - up rate increased. In the future, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: Calcium carbide is the main raw material for calcium - carbide method PVC. In August, the price of calcium carbide first decreased and then increased, and the start - up rate first decreased and then stabilized. In the future, the start - up of calcium carbide may remain stable, but the increase may be limited [73]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is usually produced in conjunction with PVC. In August, the price of caustic soda increased, and the start - up rate decreased. In the future, it is expected that the short - term caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.6 Production Capacity Release Progress - **Put - into - production capacity**: In 2024, Xinshu Chemical's 250,000 - ton ethylene - method device was trial - produced smoothly and put into production; in 2025, Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton ethylene - method device was included in production on August 2 [93]. - **Withdrawn capacity**: In 2025, Hubei Yihua's 120,000 - ton calcium - carbide method device withdrew from production [93]. - **Planned production capacity**: In 2025, Huade Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Jiahua Energy's 800,000 - ton device is planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [94]. 3.7 Start - Up and Maintenance - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. The overall production in August increased due to the release of new production capacity [102]. - On August 29, the overall start - up load rate of PVC powder was 73.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The start - up load rate of calcium - carbide method PVC powder was 75.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%; the start - up load rate of ethylene - method PVC powder was 68.68% [102]. 3.8 Import and Export Volume Statistics - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with a cumulative import of 148,800 tons from January to July. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year. The cumulative import increased by 0.03% year - on - year. The import mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [125]. - In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with a cumulative export of 2,291,000 tons from January to July. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year. The cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The main export destinations were India and Vietnam [125]. 3.9 Downstream Start - Up Load - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials [9]. 3.10 Terminal Situation - In the real estate industry, from January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 12%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 19.4%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in construction area was 9.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in completion area was 16.5%. The real estate industry may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [178]. 3.11 Inventory - As of August 28, the inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. - The sample production enterprise's PVC powder available inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range of [107, 108.5] for the T2512 contract. The reasons include the "stock - bond seesaw" effect leading to a rise in risk appetite, more redemptions of bond funds driving up interest rates, moderately loose monetary policy with the central bank maintaining neutral - to - loose liquidity, and the economic slowdown in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks. Key data to watch are the August economic data [7]. - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Forecasted to trade in a range of [102, 102.7] for the TS2512 contract. Logic involves improved liquidity with the central bank conducting outright reverse repurchase operations, the moderately loose monetary policy stance set by the Politburo meeting in July, and the "stock - bond seesaw" impact on risk appetite and bond fund redemptions. Data to focus on are central bank LPR rate changes, central bank monetary policy shifts, and August economic data [7]. - **5 - year Treasury Bonds**: Predicted to trade in a range of [104.6, 106.1] for the TF2512 contract. The factors are improved liquidity, the moderately loose monetary policy from the July Politburo meeting, and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect. Key data includes central bank monetary policy operations, central bank LPR rate changes, and August economic data [12]. - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range of [114, 118] for the TL2512 contract. Reasons are the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, moderately loose monetary policy, and the economic slowdown in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks. The key data to monitor is the August economic data [12]. Summary by Directory Economic Situation - **Consumption**: Short - term consumption declined slightly. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a 3.7% year - on - year increase. Excluding automobiles, it was 3.4931 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 28.4238 trillion yuan, a 4.8% increase, and excluding automobiles, it was 25.7014 trillion yuan, a 5.3% increase [23]. - **Investment**: Investment growth slowed. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28.8229 trillion yuan, a 1.6% year - on - year increase. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.5%. Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 3.2%, and real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a 12.0% decrease. In July, manufacturing investment growth dropped to 6.2%, a 1.3% decline from the previous month, and high - tech service industries also declined [23][27]. - **Exports and Imports**: In July 2025, China's total import and export value increased by 6.7% year - on - year, accelerating for two consecutive months. Exports in US dollars increased by 7.2%, and imports increased by 4.1%. Mechanical and electrical products' exports in the first seven months increased by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports. Integrated circuit exports increased by 29.2%, industrial robots by 62.2%, and automobile exports by 10.9%. The combined exports of new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products increased by 14.9% [41]. - **Real Estate**: In June, the real - estate investment growth rate continued to decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new housing construction area was 19.5%, with a slightly narrowed decline, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was 4%, with an expanded decline [43]. Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In July 2025, the national consumer price index was flat year - on - year, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from June. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, rising for three consecutive months and reaching a new high since March 2024. Food prices were a major drag, with a 1.6% year - on - year decrease in July, and service prices increased by 0.5% year - on - year, indicating strong summer consumption [49]. - **PPI**: In July 2025, the national producer price index for industrial products and purchase prices decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month [48]. Policy Expectations - **Monetary Policy**: The Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," emphasizing policy continuity, stability, flexibility, and predictability. Monetary policy focused on structural tools to support scientific and technological innovation, small and micro - enterprises, and reduce social financing costs [47]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Fiscal policy focused on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, improving capital efficiency, and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level [47]. Overseas Data - **US Economy**: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, a significant rebound from the first quarter. However, the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating a still low growth rate [45]. - **US Inflation**: In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.8%. It increased by 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous 0.3%. Energy prices declined, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.2% month - on - month. Core commodity CPI reached a new high since June 2023, and core service inflation remained at 3.6% year - on - year [51]. - **US Employment**: In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000 and a nearly 50% decline from the initial June value. Historical data was revised downward significantly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021 [55]. - **US PMI**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July slightly declined to 48%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity after the suspension of interest - rate cuts [57]. - **Fed Monetary Policy**: Market expectations suggest an 85% probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September, and a high probability of 2 - 3 interest - rate cuts within the year. The Fed paused interest - rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% [62][69]. Other Data - **Interest Rates**: The central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations improved market liquidity. The DR007 rate remained between 1.40% and 1.50%, and inter - bank certificate of deposit rates also remained low and stable [80]. - **Exchange Rates**: In August, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate (onshore) fluctuated around 7.17, and the US dollar index remained weak, fluctuating around 97 [83][84]. - **Bond Yields**: In August, the stock market performed well, driving up market risk appetite. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.85%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was around 2.14% [88].