【宏观周报20250907】美联储8月新增就业陷入停滞，美联储降 息筒期开启 朱袅鹏，咨询证号: Z0015158 日期: 2025-09-07 【宏观周报20250907】美联储8月新增就业陷入停滞，美联储降息周期开启 【宏观总结20250907】 海外经济:美国8月就业数据不及预期,美联储降息周期开启 9月6日，美国劳工部公布美国8月非农就业教招，数据显示美国8月就业核心数据全面低于预期，就业增长近平停滞。8月非农就业仪增2.2万人，运低于市场预期的7.5万人，也大幅 低于前值（7月修正后为7.9万人）。自2025年4月以来，就业增长持续疲软，整体趋势接近零增长。失业率小幅上升：失业率从7月的4.2%升至4.3%，创2021年以来新高．长期失业 者（失业》27周）达190万人、较去年增加38.5万人。薪资增速温和加绿。平均时薪科比增长0.3%（符合预期），但同比增返从3.9%降至7.7%、美联储降息路径更超越进户降息几 | 成定局，报告进一步扫清降息障碍，25基点降息已被市场充分定价。分歧点在于降息幅度：若叠加下周就业数据基准修正（可能显示更大就业缺口），或推动美联储选择0基点的 | 激讲宽松。 | | ...

使用的商标、服务标识及标记，除非另有说明，均为本公司的商标、服务标识及标记，本公司保留一切权利。 【生猪鸡蛋周报20250905】供给高位持续施压，关注旺季需求提 版 日期:2025-09-05 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【生猪鸡蛋周报20250905】供给高位持续施压，关注旺季需求提振 | 2025-09-05 核心观点 | | 核心观点 | 2025-09-05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ▼ 观点： 生猪 上方空间有限，在15500价位存在压力 | * 合约: h2601 | ® 观点： 鸡蛋 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 * 合彩: jd2510 | | | ■ 逻辑: 能繁母猪存栏持续偏高，结合生产性能回升，生猪供给呈增长恋势，2025年下半年生猪供给压力 | | * 逻辑: 在产蛋鸡存栏同比高位,供给压力持续施压,需求年内季节性变化,但受限于宏观经济与消费者偏 | | | 仍较大，需求预期季节性走旺，但受经济发展放缓与消费偏好转换影响，提振幅度或有限，预计下半年猪价反 | | 好，预计波动幅度有限，综合考虑成本与利润问题，预计鸡蛋重心仍将低位运行。 | ...

【白糖周报20250905】印泰增产预期充足叠加浆粉放松迹象，郑』 糖下跌兑现 日期: 2025-09-06 【白糖周报20250905】印泰增产预期充足叠加浆粉放松迹象，郑糖下跌兑现 核心观点 * 合约: SR601 ® 观点: 白糖 短期易跌难涨,但下方空间有限,在5500价位存在支撑 ® 潤頭， 国外方面，巴西2025/26神季任伊高峰持续， 丰产预期登景下原糖顶动词区运运行为主，但产想同比闹低支撑原精价格。北半永2025/26传季主产国神面集体增长，降水正常部景下预订同样增广，全球食精热需维持 球站馆局，国内方面，目前产销进其情效，但第三方年存停，叠加近月圆糖到您量量排身记队。进入9月碳荣梧门给上市，地应销推持部邮督局，您端澳门葡萄着什队备货展开导，定政特，但典山东运营紧下提后预防有损， 型体系看，全球馆产局跟诗示结束，中长刹视应同步跑陷隐带领，SR2601台均属等编销营待，建议区同内值高总空为工，但下方需关注胡槽成本5500元一线支撑情况，随近成本位附近建议实出SR200 P-5-400遗盲看绕新 权。 产业链操作建议 情侣向 参与角色 行为导向 規賃成口 贵暗推荐 美 套保尔生品 入场价格 相关场 ...

【宏观周报20250907】美联储8月新增就业陷入停滞，美联储降 息筒期开启 朱袅鹏，咨询证号: Z0015158 日期: 2025-09-07 【宏观周报20250907】美联储8月新增就业陷入停滞，美联储降息周期开启 【宏观总结20250907】 海外经济:美国8月就业数据不及预期,美联储降息周期开启 9月6日，美国劳工部公布美国8月非农就业教招，数据显示美国8月就业核心数据全面低于预期，就业增长近平停滞。8月非农就业仪增2.2万人，运低于市场预期的7.5万人，也大幅 低于前值（7月修正后为7.9万人）。自2025年4月以来，就业增长持续疲软，整体趋势接近零增长。失业率小幅上升：失业率从7月的4.2%升至4.3%，创2021年以来新高．长期失业 者（失业》27周）达190万人、较去年增加38.5万人。薪资增速温和加绿。平均时薪科比增长0.3%（符合预期），但同比增返从3.9%降至7.7%、美联储降息路径更超越进户降息几 | 成定局，报告进一步扫清降息障碍，25基点降息已被市场充分定价。分歧点在于降息幅度：若叠加下周就业数据基准修正（可能显示更大就业缺口），或推动美联储选择0基点的 | 激讲宽松。 | | ...

2025-09-05 产业链操作建议 场外报价 行为导向 买卖 套保比例(%) 入场价格 参与角色 情得向 现货做口 策略推荐 套保衍生品 相关场外产品 | | | | | 按原料采购量折算，按比例的买入棉花 看涨期权进行对冲以防未来将棉采购价 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北花厂 | 采购管理 | 采购籽棉，担心棉花价格上涨 | 후 | | CF601C14600 | 买入 | 100 | 100 | | | | | | 大幅上涨 | | | | | | 车花厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心棉花价格下跌 | 电 | 棉价重心或上移，可以按比例买入虚值 | CF601C15600 | 東出 | 100 | 50 | | | | | | 看跌期权以防价格出现极端下跌，同时 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出虚值看涨期权收取一定权利金 | CF601P13400 | 买人 | 100 | 50 | | 贸易向 | 采购管理 | 建库存，寻求低价买入棉花 | BH | 棉价重心或上移，按比例买入期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - demand of PVC continues the extremely weak trend, with high - level production supply, weak domestic and export demand, and continuous accumulation of social inventory, which has now reached a level close to that of the same period last year [3]. - For traders, terminal customers, and production enterprises with inventory, it is recommended to short - hedge futures based on the weak reality. For those who need to purchase PVC, it is recommended to purchase as needed, and to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation Supply - In August, the overall PVC production showed an increasing trend. Although maintenance caused a certain reduction in supply, the release of new production capacity of 500,000 tons led to an overall increase in production [6]. - In 2025, the first - quarter production capacity of 300,000 tons was put into operation. Fujian Wanhua's 600,000 - ton capacity was included in production on August 2. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be 6.37%, and the pressure of production capacity release remains high [8]. - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. There were fewer maintenance plans in the first ten - day period, with the start - up reaching around 79 - 80. In the middle and late ten - day periods, maintenance increased, and the start - up dropped to around 72 - 38 [8]. Demand - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. Production is weak in the high - temperature summer season [9]. - This week, the sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.17% month - on - month and increased by 9.13% year - on - year. As of August 17, the final anti - dumping duty decision on PVC in India is waiting for the announcement of the Indian Ministry of Finance, estimated to be announced and implemented in about 20 - 30 days. The prices in the Chinese mainland have generally increased by 46 - 62 US dollars/ton, while those in Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Chinese Taipei have decreased. In the short term, there is a certain rush - to - export performance. Pay attention to the implementation time of the Indian anti - dumping duty, which will have a negative impact on China's exports if implemented [9]. Inventory - As of August 28, the original sample inventory in East China was 445,400 tons, an increase of 3.44% from the previous period and a decrease of 3.91% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 766,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The sample inventory in South China was 52,500 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous period and an increase of 44.23% year - on - year. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. Raw Materials - **Lancoke**: In August, the Lancoke price rose slightly twice. The price of medium - sized Lancoke in Shaanxi increased from 606 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 645 yuan/ton, a 6.6% increase. The start - up rate of Lancoke increased from 53.65% at the beginning of the month to 56.7%. In the future, with the end of some enterprise maintenance and the weakening of coal prices, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: In August, the calcium carbide market price showed a flat "V" - shaped trend, with the end - of - month price rising compared to the beginning. The average start - up load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased in the first ten - day period, then rebounded and stabilized. In the future, most calcium carbide start - ups may remain stable, but the increase in start - up may be limited [73]. - **Caustic soda**: In August, the price center of liquid caustic soda moved up. The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased from 820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 870 yuan/ton, a 6.1% increase. The start - up of caustic soda decreased from 83.9% at the beginning of the month to 82.4%. In the future, it is expected that the short - term liquid caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.2 Monthly Price Data Changes - Futures prices: V2601 decreased from 5,176 yuan/ton at the end of July to 4,907 yuan/ton on August 29, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton; AS60E decreased from 5,469 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton [14]. - PVC spot prices: The calcium - carbide method prices in East, South, North, and Northwest China all decreased to varying degrees; the ethylene - method price in East China decreased from 5,100 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [14]. - Prices of related products in the PVC industry chain: The prices of Lancoke, ethylene, and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the prices of calcium carbide in Shandong and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Inner Mongolia decreased [14]. - Spreads: The V2601 - 2605 spread remained unchanged at - 293 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased from - 355 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [14]. - Profits: The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (northwest integrated chlor - alkali) decreased from 590.91 yuan/ton to 376.61 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (north - China purchased calcium carbide) decreased from 169 yuan/ton to 19.35 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - method (east - China purchased VCM) increased from 5.20 yuan/ton to 27.38 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Disk Review and Disk Data - **This month's market review**: In August, the PVC price first oscillated and then weakened under the increasing supply - demand pressure. By the afternoon of August 29, the price dropped to around 4,907, a 4.74% decrease from the beginning of the month [19]. - **Disk data performance**: After the main contract shifted to 01, the 01 basis in East China was around - 280; the 1 - 5 spread remained weak at around - 293. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.195 million lots, a record high. The registered warrants increased from 583,000 lots at the beginning of the month to around 841,000 lots at the end of the month [20][21]. 3.4 Spreads and Profits Regional Spreads and Quality Spreads - **Regional spreads**: The spread between East - and South - China calcium - carbide method first strengthened from around - 150 to around - 50 and then returned to the initial level; the spread between East - and North - China calcium - carbide method weakened from - 45 to around - 83 [37]. - **Ethylene - calcium - carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium - carbide spread strengthened from 305 to around 373 [37]. Profits - The profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in Northwest China (integrated with self - owned power plant) and the profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in North China (purchased calcium carbide) both decreased; the profit of ethylene - method PVC (purchased VCM) increased [14]. 3.5 Related Products in the Industrial Chain Calcium - Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Lancoke is the raw material for calcium carbide. In August, the price of Lancoke in Shaanxi increased slightly, and the start - up rate increased. In the future, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: Calcium carbide is the main raw material for calcium - carbide method PVC. In August, the price of calcium carbide first decreased and then increased, and the start - up rate first decreased and then stabilized. In the future, the start - up of calcium carbide may remain stable, but the increase may be limited [73]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is usually produced in conjunction with PVC. In August, the price of caustic soda increased, and the start - up rate decreased. In the future, it is expected that the short - term caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.6 Production Capacity Release Progress - **Put - into - production capacity**: In 2024, Xinshu Chemical's 250,000 - ton ethylene - method device was trial - produced smoothly and put into production; in 2025, Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton ethylene - method device was included in production on August 2 [93]. - **Withdrawn capacity**: In 2025, Hubei Yihua's 120,000 - ton calcium - carbide method device withdrew from production [93]. - **Planned production capacity**: In 2025, Huade Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Jiahua Energy's 800,000 - ton device is planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [94]. 3.7 Start - Up and Maintenance - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. The overall production in August increased due to the release of new production capacity [102]. - On August 29, the overall start - up load rate of PVC powder was 73.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The start - up load rate of calcium - carbide method PVC powder was 75.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%; the start - up load rate of ethylene - method PVC powder was 68.68% [102]. 3.8 Import and Export Volume Statistics - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with a cumulative import of 148,800 tons from January to July. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year. The cumulative import increased by 0.03% year - on - year. The import mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [125]. - In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with a cumulative export of 2,291,000 tons from January to July. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year. The cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The main export destinations were India and Vietnam [125]. 3.9 Downstream Start - Up Load - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials [9]. 3.10 Terminal Situation - In the real estate industry, from January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 12%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 19.4%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in construction area was 9.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in completion area was 16.5%. The real estate industry may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [178]. 3.11 Inventory - As of August 28, the inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. - The sample production enterprise's PVC powder available inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [184].

【尿素月报20250831】出口提振但内需偏弱，价格承压运行 日期: 2025-08-31 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【尿素月报20250831】出口提振但内需偏弱，价格承压运行 核心观点 * 合约: UR601 ® 观点： 尿素 短期易跌难涨，但下方空间有限，在1700价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： ①近利国内装置计划检修有所趋加。但对供应筑整体影响有限，产量和开工同比维持高位；②需求讲回内攻需进入谈季，工业复合肥开始秋季生产，需求碳整体支撑有限； 忽成本销近规划保持弱势，尿素成本支撑下 移至1500-1600附近。 ④出口政策逐步落地，关注后期具体出口数量。总体来看，国内需求总体有所走弱，供应端压力凸显，关注出口是否能对价格形成支撑， | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场 报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形写向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | 煤化工 ...

【黄金月报20250831】货币政策框架调整，9月降息板上钉钉 日期: 2025-08-31 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【黄金月报20250831】货币政策框架调整，9月降息板上钉钉 日录 核心观点 2025-08-31 ● 合约: au2510 ® 观点： 黄金 震荡上行阶段,后期价格中枢有望抬升 价格 国外 ® 逻辑: 1.避险逻辑方面,短期观察关税影响仍然反复,地缘方面俄乌谈判末有明显进展,长期避险逻辑仍 价差 一、行情回顾 存。 2.投资逻辑方面，8月央行年会调整货币政策框架，9月降息预期大幅增加，年内存在50-75bp降息空间，利率 价格 预期将会下行,带动金价走高。 国内 价差 产业链操作建议 场外报价 实际利率 套保彷 现货做口 行为导向 情侣向 策略推荐 参与角色 实际利率 二、金融属性 实际利华 au251 贵全属 多 短期利空因素，适合做空期货套保 库存管理 有库存，担心金价下跌 矿山企业 实际利率 多 有库存,担心金价下跌 短期利空因素，做空期货套保 au251 库存管理 冶炼企业 美元指数 空 au251 采购管理 采购原材料,担心金价上涨 直接期货做多 冶炼企业 二、货币属性 ...

1月消费投资等经济数据再度出现明显疲软、或因季节性因素以及政策到期影响，整体经济整体增速过际放缓。同时反内卷政策效果明显，通胀指标有所起色，PPI 各项通缩压力有所缓和。 【宏观政策:政治局会议定调积级,反内卷政策持续发力】 会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性。增强灵活性预见他"。反内卷政策中服除"低价无序竞争"中的"低价"表达，转向依法治理元序 竞争,避免恶性价格战,鼓励企业以质量和服务竞争 【海外市场: 就业下降风险或超过通胀上升风险】 经济方面,7月非农数据确认美国就业市场显著走动,同时通胀持平前值，景气指数处于低位,经济下行风险或有抬头。 政策方面，8月央行年会美联储重新调整货币政策框架。使得9月降息都率大幅增加,预期年内有2-3次降息。此外关税政策反复较多，未来仍存不确定性。 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛 it 日期：2025-08-31 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛盾 【经济情况:7月数据回落】 9月美联储议息会议,以及国内经济数据 国债期货观点策略 | 2025-08-31 核心观点 | | --- | ...

【SH月报20250831】需求驱动为主，关注旺季成色 日期：2025-08-29 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【SH月报20250831】需求驱动为主，关注旺季成色 | 核心观点 | | 2025-08-29 | | --- | --- | --- | | ♥ 观点： 烧碱 等待做空机会，但上方空间也可能较大 | * | | | � 避损。 绕碱近强受旺季预明和采购得铸支撑，现货价格表现偏滑，市场围绕化工产业老团集置的讨论同样的煤腐供应前物馆提供了较强的档引，短期隙碱或呈现情提运行，但01合约处于手节生淡季，后续想已予退破，现 | | | | 货价格或再度回落。 | | | | 产业链操作建议 | | 场外报价 | 行为导向 情拐向 现货做口 贯略推荐 套保衍生品 买卖 套保比例(%) 入场价格 参与角色 相关场外产品 买入看跌期权对库存进行报价，同时卖 SH601P2400 买入 100 38 | 生产企业 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 安 | 出看涨期权，若不行权可以增强收益， | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...