【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期, 乙二醇价格持续下行 日期: 2025-12-14 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期，乙二醇价格持续下行 核心观点 2025-12-14 ● 合约: eq2605 ® 观点: MEG 下跌空间有限,在[3400]价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）隔弱、自身估值偏高，26年末投产背景下，EGO1价格持续承压，从现实来看，11-12月内累申幅或较划显。且远先仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面中长周朗看，26-21年乙三醇或进入到新一般的扩散用时，26年新股产约215万吨，2027年之后仍有不少大套装置计划股广，加古雷、中科，壳体等的工期项目，加回趣。中昆，天业之类的新闻的恐色成气氛必,二酶取 目，因此后期乙二醇价格更多呈现底部整理状态。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 行为9向 情得向 贵略推荐 买卖 套保比例(%) 现货的口 套保衍生命 | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心乙二醇下跌 | के | 可针对未卖出MEG库存 ...

【EB周度策略20251214】产业链存量博弈，苯乙烯强于纯苯 日期：2025-12-14 【EB周度策略20251214】产业链存量博弈，苯乙烯强于纯苯 核心观点 2025-12-14 ● 合约: eb2602 ® 观点： 苯乙烯 等待做空机会,但上方空间也可能较大 ® 醒姆： 26年纯荷的压力较大，屈产量方面，石油苯牛量随着下半年裂解装置投守能泵及检修结束后施厂开工恢复将显著单加，加富苯产量同比预期相对等平。进口方面，今年比去年同想多进口97万吨，几乎每个月多进 口了老近20万吨，今年上半年练进口量的大幅增加运超市场预期。其中主要增量来自于韩国、6-7.9.统带出国量增持在457吨左右，全年进口同比增幅或拔近20%，需求能释着，花乙烯为主要需求搅崖；166%，，其余万说 播速的缓压著，除己内配缺产量增速假时较高为14%以外，剩下的己二酸、苯酸、苯砂增速和较低、其中己二酸（-3%）和苯胺（-2%）胶产量累划同比硬是虫压转负、烘增需關的目之下，纯粹库用压力或以阻较大。 苹乙烯泡防电压力集中体现在2025年Q4，广西石化、吉林尼化共120万吨中能物优耐投放，新明国昆20万吨PCSM装置11月上点火试车，预计月底 ...

策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 会议部署明年经济发展重点，股指本周继续震荡 日期：2025-12-13 【股指期货周报20251213】会议部署明年经济发展重点，股指本周继续震荡 美联储再度降息25BP，政治局会议为2026年定调，政策维持宽松,经济工作会议作出方向性部署,中长期来看，国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金额源不断,股 指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3. 当前稳定资本市场政策积极,股指底线明确。 4.政治局会议及经济工作会议给出方向性指引，包括继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳定房地产市场。在扩大内需领域更加注重"强大国内市场"的 作用等。 5. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 6. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 国内主要指数PE/PE分位数 四、指数估值 四大期指股债性价比/股债性价比分位数 申万一级行业PE/PE分位数 五、指数行业 ...

【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势 से र 日期：2025-12-12 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势分化 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | | --- | --- | | * 合约: m2605 ♥ 观点： 豆粕 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | * 合约: RM605 ® 观点： 菜籽粕 震荡下行阶段 后期价格中枢有望下降 | | 》 逻辑： 国外方面，美豆新年度基本面偏紧对CBOT大豆价格重心支撑仍在。但南美新作丰产预期持续，压 | 业 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局竞松,压制荣籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | 制CBOT大豆价格走势。短期预计CBOT大豆偏弱震荡。关注后续南美天气变化指引。 | 指引。国内方面，加荣籽反顺捐初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | 国内方面，年底前大豆及豆粉供需仍相对充足，一季度供应缺口在前期阿根廷大豆采购及后续中美采购预期下 | 持续收紧。但下游水产养 ...

【PXTA周度策略20251207】低估值叠加投产空白期，持续看好 PXTA远月合约 日期：2025-12-05 ZHESHANG FUTUR 【PXTA周度策略20251207】低估值叠加投产空白期，持续看好PXTA远月合约 核心观点 2025-12-05 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 行为导向 | 情"向 | 现货 | | 套保衍生品 | 実 | 套保比例(%) 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | | 库存管理 有库存，担心PTA价格下跌 | த | 可针对未卖出PTA库存，按比例小部分 套保做空来预防意外风险 | TA601P4450 | 买入 | 100 20 | | | | 聚酯贸易 | 库存管理 | 有库存，寻求高价卖出PTA | 多 | 可针对未卖出PTA库存，按比例小部分 | TA601P4450 | 买入 | 100 | 20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 进入四季度下半旬，板块轮动加快。股指震荡为主;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断，股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 日期：2025-12-07 【股指期货周报20251207】板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3.当前稳定资本市场政策积极，股指底线明确，而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升："十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求，扩内需，未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6. 建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金融、Giz券 、消费等低估值防御板块的轮动配置价值。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全 ...

【SH月报20251130】供需宽松难改，关注上游后市主动去库压 户 日期: 2025-11-28 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【SH月报20251130】供需宽松难改，关注上游后市主动去库压力 | 核心观点 | | | | | | | | | | 2025-11-28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | * 观点： 烧碱 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | | | * 合约: SH601 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ♥ 逻辑： 当前烧脑的供票搭房放松阳园，上游年内投产和检修结束导致供应销的宽敞搭高一直结特，年内放醇求优养现乏力，较难承食换应。随冬季到来，上游舞廊企业的主动去年压力或将冲击现货市场，可关注盘面反弹 | | | | | | | 那空机会。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | 参与角色 | 行为驹 | | 現貨(口 策略推荐 | | 套保衍生品 | 买 | 套保比例(% ...

ZHESHANG FUTURES EGPF早报 核心观点 2025-11-25 ® 观点: MEG 区间震荡,区间为[3700,4250] @ 合约: eg2601 � 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）偏弱、自身估值偏高、弱预期（四季度卫星及撬海軍自强加粘龙及弱融投产）背景下，EG01价格持续审压，从现实来看，国庆节中到连较多带来都口库存略有积累。10月累库幅度在7-8万吨附近, 关注福炼、盘虹等装置检修落地。11-12月内累库幅度较为明显，目远月仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面来看，25年乙二醇整体投产党少，下访紧贴设产进行中，短期符局但时健康。中长周期看，26-27年乙二醇或进入到新一条的扩销局明中，26年新敌宁均215万吨，2027年之后归有不少女套装置试规投产，如古雷、中 戏，裁排等的二期项目，如恒逸、中昆、天业之类的新闻找的合成气制乙二醇项目，因此后朝乙二骑价值褒多呈现底部整理时态，总结束看，油制装置虽乐面首演亏损，但其开停,口对闪润跑的性较低。进口减团原料优越价格普 遍低于国内,在目前的情况下,我们更多参考煤制行业的成本来锚定乙二醇绝对价格区间,即3700-4245元左右。 产业链 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The view is to wait for short - selling opportunities for styrene, but the upside space may also be large, with the contract being eb2512 [5]. - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. Domestic production will increase significantly after the resumption of refinery operations. Import volume is 970,000 tons more than last year, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The demand growth of downstream products has slowed down. Under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the inventory pressure of pure benzene may still be large [5]. - The pattern of styrene in the second half of the year may be weaker than the previous period. Supply will increase with the restart of domestic and foreign plants and the commissioning of new capacities. The growth of downstream demand is weak, and the high - profit state of styrene may be difficult to sustain. Pay attention to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression [5]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Day - to - day Description - Crude oil is running weakly overall. The profit of domestic pure benzene has been continuously compressed to a relatively low level, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a high overall valuation recently [9]. Styrene Industry Chain Overview - The report shows the styrene industry chain, including the sources of benzene, production methods of styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, PS, ABS, etc [10]. Industrial Chain Daily Data - **Toluene Spread**: Data on the spread between toluene and other products in different regions are presented, including the spread between toluene and naphtha in the Americas, and the spread between benzene and toluene in the Americas, Europe, and Asia [13][14]. - **Pure Benzene Spread and Profit**: Information on the profit of domestic pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, and various spreads of pure benzene is provided, such as the spread between Chinese CFR and South Korean FOB [13][29]. - **Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene**: Profits of downstream products of pure benzene like caprolactam, phenol, adipic acid, aniline, and the comprehensive profit of pure benzene downstream are shown [31]. - **Styrene Profit and Spread**: Data on non - integrated and integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) profits of styrene, import profit, and various spreads are given, including the spread between South China and East China [13][32]. - **EB Inventory Situation**: Inventory data of styrene in different regions and overall inventory data are presented, including the inventory of mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, and the total inventory of styrene factories and ports [32][34]. - **EB Downstream Profit**: Profits of styrene downstream products such as EPS, GPPS, and ABS are shown [34]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participation roles in the styrene industry chain are given corresponding operation suggestions, including inventory management and procurement management strategies, as well as relevant hedging derivatives and ratios [6]. Attention Data - Pay attention to port inventory data on Mondays and Wednesdays, styrene factory inventory data on Thursdays, styrene downstream inventory data on Thursdays, and pure benzene industry chain operation data on Fridays [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) is expected to trade in a range of [3700, 4250]. The contract under consideration is eg2601. The price of EG01 is under pressure due to weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and weak expectations of new capacity coming online in the fourth quarter. From October to December, inventory accumulation is evident, and there are expectations of new plant commissioning in the far - month. In the long - term, from 2026 - 2027, MEG may enter a new expansion phase. Given that oil - based plants are in loss and imports have an advantage in raw material prices, the absolute price range of MEG is anchored to the cost of the coal - based industry, around 3700 - 4245 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EGPF Morning Report - **Price Range**: MEG is expected to trade between 3700 - 4245 yuan, with the price range mainly determined by the cost of the coal - based industry [4]. - **Industry Situation**: In 2025, MEG capacity expansion is limited. In the long - term (2026 - 2027), there will be significant new capacity, including second - phase projects and new syngas - to - MEG projects. The value of MEG will likely show bottom - consolidation in the future [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: From October to December, inventory accumulation is significant. In October, the inventory increased by about 7 - 8 tons [4]. - **Operation Suggestions for the Industry Chain** - **Refineries**: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent unexpected risks. When inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell eg2601 at 4200 yuan with a 50% ratio [4]. - **Traders**: When purchasing according to the plan, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan to build inventory. When having inventory and seeking high - price sales, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. - **End - users**: When in need of polyester raw materials and worried about price increases, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan. When raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) [4]. - **Coal - chemical Enterprises**: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. 3.2 Upstream Price - **Price Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: Naphtha price CFR Japan increased from 562.00 to 563.00; methanol price in Taicang increased from 1989.00 to 2062.00; MEG outer - market price increased from 452.00 to 459.00; MEG East China spot self - pick - up price increased from 3844.00 to 3914.00; MEG import cost increased from 3842.93 to 3898.01; MEG import profit increased from 1.07 to 15.99; EG2601 futures price increased from 3808.00 to 3884.00; direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6278 to 6488; PF2512 closing price increased from 6148 to 6190 [6]. - **Unchanged Prices**:动力煤 (Inner Mongolia Q5500) remained at 630.00; ethylene in Northeast Asia remained at 730.00; MEG coal - based cost remained at 4816.00 [6]. 3.3 EGPF Process Profits - **Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: MEG oil - based profit increased from - 1192.63 to - 1123.87; MEG coal - based profit increased from - 972.00 to - 902.00; MEG ethylene - based profit increased from - 750.77 to - 676.69; MEG weighted profit increased from - 1104.06 to - 1038.67; direct - spun polyester staple fiber spot profit decreased from 114.13 to 75.88; short - fiber main - contract on - disk profit decreased from 32 to 31 [6]. 3.4 EG Basis, Spread, and Position - **Basis and Spread Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: EG1 - month basis decreased from 36.00 to 30.00; the difference in deep - pine short - rise increased from 130 to 298; PF12 - 1 month spread changed as shown in the data [6].