Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the future. In late 2024, multiple new units were put into operation intensively, and the production of units in 2025 continued throughout the year, resulting in huge production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load was also high, leading to a supply much higher than the historical average. Although the demand has entered the traditional peak season, the support is limited. Overall, due to over - capacity, the supply - demand relationship is weak, and the expectation of crude oil on the cost side is also weak, so the price center of polypropylene is expected to move down oscillatingly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the tariff storm and the sharp decline in crude oil, the PP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the week but temporarily stopped falling and stabilized due to supply concerns. The East China basis remained at around - 20 yuan/ton, the North China basis ranged from 10 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened from 80 to - 70 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend but was generally stronger than the standard product [19]. - **Regional Spread**: The North China - East China spread was relatively strong, while the South China - East China spread was at a low level. The spread between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing in the non - standard basis changed little [30][31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of the futures strengthened to 124 during the week and then fell back to 76, indicating a weaker far - month expectation. The L - PP06 spread weakened to a minimum of 50 this week, and the PP - Wh spread increased slightly. The significant decline in the L - P3 spread was due to the potential production loss of the BBI process on the PP supply side caused by the propane import tariff counter - measure and the weaker demand for PE after the peak season. With the large - scale restart of Iranian plants, the load recovered and the shipping volume exceeded expectations, MA dropped sharply, and the MTO profit was significantly repaired to the level of the same period last year [36]. 3.2 Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: After the sharp decline last week, the crude oil price oscillated this week. The oil - making profit improved due to the weakening of the cost side. On April 4, the tariff on imported propane from the US increased, which would increase the import cost of liquefied petroleum gas in the short term and tighten the domestic supply. In the long term, the domestic pricing target may shift to ether - after carbon four. High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits, and the decline in methanol prices in the production area slightly improved MTO profits [41][42]. - **Domestic Output and Load**: This week, the PP output was 73.16 tons (- 0.04 tons), and the operating rate was 76.38% (- 0.05%). The supply loss of PP was 19.28 tons, including 12.47 tons of maintenance loss and 6.81 tons of production reduction loss. The previously shut - down units restarted one after another, the maintenance volume decreased, and the supply increased. In the future, attention should be paid to the maintenance of PDR units. On the other hand, the significant repair of oil - making profit increased the willingness to start production [8][59]. - **Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing scheduling ratio may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [78]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Europe and the US declined, especially in Northwest Europe. Asian prices mostly fell, and CFR Far East was greatly affected by the tariff policy. The demand in Southeast Asia was weak, and market transactions were cautious. The South Asian prices remained stable. The spread between CFR China and Northwest Europe was at a low level [87][88]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Although the RMB exchange rate weakened, the concern about tariffs led to a significant decline in overseas inquiries and export transactions, making it difficult to consume resources. On the import side, the overseas offers were few and expensive, and imports were blocked [104]. 3.4 Downstream Operating Rate - The downstream is still in the peak season. The comprehensive operating rate decreased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the downstream. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, the demand for fertilizer bags continued, and the demand for cement and food was also acceptable. In addition, the operating rate of injection molding increased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.8%. As the temperature rises, the demand for storage boxes, milk tea cups, and disposable transparent products continues to be released [9][107]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 2.07 tons to 63.71 tons, including a 1.07 - ton increase in the inventory of two major oil companies and a 0.7 - ton increase in the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises. The market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The inventory of traders decreased by 0.54 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.02 tons. Due to the decrease in overseas inquiries and the decline in export transactions, the port inventory fluctuated slightly [10][123].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].

苯乙烯产业链早报 日期:2025-04-02 ZHESHANG FUTURES 苯乙烯产业链早报 》 关注数据： 周一隆众纯苯及苯乙烯塔口库存、周三华瑞纯苯及苯乙烯港口库存、周四苯乙烯产业链负荷及库存、周五纯苯产业链负荷及库存 【撰写人】 浙商期货有限公司 曾滢月 (Z0021083) 【咨询电话】 0571-87213861 【免责声明】 本队原基于我比司及其研究人员认为可能放公开资伴或实地很阳资料，但我公司及复研究人员达达些高息的年睹估钉完整"压不作任丹职证。观点中的信息或所靠达意见不构或优经，法律、会计或税务短跟终操作建议，我公司不就观点内欧洲最终解控以比如 任何担保。 来连不公司分许，不得以狂何方式传达，复印或就发出观点的优兴，内容或夏邛本予以任何禁仙，或敌入商业使带，未经预仅转载萨公司不承担任府景后。独立有公司同意的转发成应道通照反本等房并准例出处"浙南班货同队公司"。所有在中俄首央伝的 商标、服务标识及标记,除非另有说明，均为本公司的商标、服务标识及标记,本公司保留一切权利。 日度描述 原油整体偏强运行,国内纯苯利润近期持续修复至季节性高位,苯乙烯非一体化利润近期整体估值低位。 价格区润粉厂搞定市 ...

| 2025年3月27日午间基差表 | 品种 | 现货折盘面 | 主力基差 | 贴水幅度 | 价差结构 | 现货基准地 | 变动 | 变动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | だす | 山东 | 2,916 | -6 | 14.0% | 320 | - | 日脂 | 旦相 | 3,110 | -40 | 286 | -35 | 10.1% | | 生猪 | 14,750 | 1,225 | 9.1% | 河南 | -70 | -120 | 华南 | LPG转型 | 5,100 | 8.4% | 397 | +55 | - | | 内烷进口成本 | FEI内烷 | 8.2% | 5,087 | +72 | 384 | +127 | 华东 | LPG华东 | 6.3% | 5,000 | 297 | +25 | - | | 棕櫚油 | 乐亮 | 9,440 | -24 | 6.2% | +30 | 552 | 棉花 | 新疆 | 14,305 | -8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The downside space of styrene is limited, with support at the [7600] price level. The styrene contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the upcoming maintenance season for pure benzene and styrene, during which styrene inventory will gradually decline. The de - stocking of pure benzene is less significant than that of styrene, showing a moderate de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the profits of pure benzene downstream and styrene downstream. The price range is estimated to be between [7600, 8150] [4]. - Crude oil is generally strong. The profit of domestic pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a relatively low level recently [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Toluene Spread - The document presents the toluene spread data in different regions such as America, Europe, and Asia on 2025 - 03 - 26, including the spread between benzene and toluene, and toluene and naphtha, with a daily update frequency [10][11][14]. 2. Pure Benzene Spread and Profit - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the domestic pure benzene profit was 268.62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 87.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 334.89 yuan/ton. The pure benzene import profit was - 311.54 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 78.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 106.04 yuan/ton. The document also shows the pure benzene US Gulf FOB - South Korea FOB spread and other related data with a daily update frequency [9][21][23]. 3. Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the EPS price was 8950 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The PS price was 8800 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 50 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton. The ABS price was 11312.5 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 62.5 yuan/ton [11][12][13]. 4. Styrene Profit and Spread - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the non - integrated styrene profit was - 119.15 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 63.6 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3.74 yuan/ton. The integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) styrene profit was 611.70 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 42.5 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 328.44 yuan/ton. The document also includes styrene price, spread, and other related data [23][24][31]. 5. EB Inventory Situation - On 2025 - 03 - 26, the China CFR price of EB was 961.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf FOB price was 1125.00 US dollars/ton, with no change. The South Korea FOB price was 951.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 26 US dollars/ton. The Rotterdam FOB price was 1223.00 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 8 US dollars/ton and a weekly change of 10 US dollars/ton. The China Taiwan CFR price was 989.00 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 20 US dollars/ton [15][16][17]. 6. EB Downstream Profits - The document shows the profit data of EB downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS, with different daily and weekly changes [11][12][13]. 7. Pure Benzene Inventory Situation - The document presents the pure benzene inventory data in East China ports from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [45][46]. 8. Styrene Inventory Situation - It includes the inventory data of styrene in mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, national factory inventory, total inventory, and port total inventory from different sources (Longzhong and Huarui) on different dates, with a weekly update frequency [62]. 9. Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - For refiners with high inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory by short - selling eb2505 to prevent unexpected risks, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For traders with inventory seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increases, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan to prevent price increases, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry price of 77 [5]. - For end - customers with inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can partially short - hedge to prevent short - term price declines, with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry price of 9600 [5]. - Attention should be paid to the inventory data of Longzhong's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Mondays, Huarui's pure benzene and styrene at ports on Wednesdays, the load and inventory of the styrene industrial chain on Thursdays, and the load and inventory of the pure benzene industrial chain on Fridays [5].

EGPF早报 日期: 2025-03-27 ZHESHANG FUTURES EGPF早报 核心观点 ® 观点: MEG 等待做多机会,但下方空间也可能较大 * 合约: eg2505 ® 逻辑： 观点：乙二醇进入25年Q1季度库存略积累，但在目前范口库存低位背景下，中长期供需驱动依旧在上，但成本端原油及煤价省偏弱下移，建议待成本端企稳后再逢低做多 主要逻辑: （1）目前油眼负荷偏稳运行，1月检修装置依旧棉多，后续关注滇海炼化回归情况。煤制方面后续来看，随着煤制剂润持续爆复，煤制负荷不断攀升，后续荣朗负荷动潍井高位近行，随着聚盛淡泽到来，聚酯负荷动碳暖下 滑，25年Q1库存或略有积累,但累库幅度相对有限,预计后续港口依旧维持相对偏低库存运行。 (2) 近期乙二醇期货价格维持区间震荡，整体呈现下有支撑上有压力的状态，25年Q1潜口库存或略有积累，但低库存现实下乙二醇价格支撑仍偏强，在化工板块中依旧偏多配。 产业链操作建议 快速套保 快速套保 (模拟) 场外报价 行为导向 情形导向 现货敞口 策略推荐 套保比例(%) 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 套保衍生品 买卖 可针对未卖出MEG库存,按比例套保做 炼厂 多 ...

| 2025年3月26日收盘基差表 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 现货折盘面 变动 主力基差 变动 贴水幅度 价差结构 现货基准地 | | | | | | | た誠 2,916 -6 367 -3 14.4% 山东 | | | | | | | 日相 330 3,150 -10 +38 11.7% 日熊 | | | | | | | 生猪 14,820 -50 1,285 -130 9.5% 河南 | | | | | | | LPG华南 5,100 331 -46 6.9% 华南 - | | | | | | | 棕櫚潤 -44 6.4% 乐莞 9,410 -10 564 | | | | | | | 工业硅(出) 10,300 -100 ર્કર +50 5.7% 华东 | | | | | | | 棉花 新疆 | | | | | | | 14,385 +40 750 -10 5.5% | | | | | | | 丙烷进口成本 252 -8 5.3% FEI内烷 5,021 +38 | | | | | | | LPG华东 5,000 23 ...

注7:高硫燃油掉期为新加坡高硫燃油380掉期，合约月份为3月。低硫燃油掉期为新加坡低硫燃油0.5%掉期，合约月份为3月。高硫燃油 为新加坡高硫380MOPS价格, 低硫燃油为新加坡低0.5MMOPS价格, MOPS价格为前一交易日价格,仅供参考。 注8:从2023年7月4日起. 山东现货基准价格由京博切换为弘润价格. 山东弘润无品牌贴水. 山东地域贴水80元 注9: 集运指数(欧线)现货价格为每周一下午公布的上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFIS), 每周更新一次 注10: 纯碱贸易商基差报价数据由于品牌、交割库、点价合约等区别仅供参考 注11: 从2025年1月1日起, 山东现货基准价格由弘润切换为京博价格, 山东京博无品牌贴水, 山东地域贴水80元/吨 本表格仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 注3: 现货价格为当日上午或下午基准地报价,期货价格为发布时最新价:其中股指期现都用最新价: 注4:期货主力合约月份选择:股指4月,连续金属4月, 沥青4月,159合约为5月, 螺纹、热卷为5月,集运为4月,工业硅,碳酸锂4月 注5: 进口成本按FEl丙烷掉期折算成国内人民币计算,丙烷贴水已计算在内 注6:铁矿为65%卡粉,螺 ...

【宏观周报20250316】美国2月通胀数据意外回落，但市场仍担 忧关税影响 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-03-16 【宏观周报20250316】美国2月通胀数据意外回落，但市场仍担忧关税影响 【宏观总结20250316】 海外经济:美国2月通胀数据超预期回落 3月12日，美国劳卫部公布的数据显示，今年2月美国消费者价格指数（8P）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，商蛋价格环比上涨10.4%，同比上涨68.8%，显示出美国吗蛋短线观找070 未缓解。数据显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，2月核心8PI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨3.1%，远高于美国联邦储备委员会设定的20长期目标。 海外经济:美国2月就业数据偏弱,政府雇员新增人数由正转负 3月7日、美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2月份非农部门就业人数增加15.1万人、失业率环比上升0.1个百分点，至4.1%。上述数据整体而言低于市场的普遍顾期。美国2月份的华农就 业人数降低于过去12个月的月均值116.8万人)，失业率仍处在自2024年5月以来4.08~4. 25k的波动区间。数据显示，美国2月份主要的就业增长来自医疗保健、金融服务、运输和仓 ...

【宏观周报20250309】国内两会聚焦促消费，美国2月通胀数据 4555 日期:2025-03-09 【宏观周报20250309】国内两会聚焦促消费,美国2月通胀数据转弱 【宏观总结20250309】 海外经济:美国2月就业数据偏弱,政府就业人数由正专负 9月7日、美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2月份非农商门就业人数增加15.1万人，失业率环比上升0.1个百分点，至4.1%。上述数据整体而言低于市场的普遍预期，美国2月份的华农 就业人数降低于过去12个月的月均值116.8万人）, 失业率仍处在自2024年5月以来4.08 - 214的波动区间，数据显示，美国同份主要的就业增长来自医疗保健、金融服务、运输和 仓储业。在美国新一届政府推行大规模裁员计划的背景下，美国的联邦政府部门就业人数增长"由正转负"，在2月减少1万人。 场可能维持谨慎，即在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，并不急于恢复降息。 国内经济:2月通胀回落,关注今年消费政策提振 3月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2月，中国居民消费者价格指数（8P）同比下降4.7%，上月为上涨0.5%。从结构上看，2月份，食品烟酒类价格同比下降1.9%，影响的1下降 的0. ...