1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The CSI 300 Index and the CSI 1000 Index are in an upward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to rise in the future. The short - term impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on the market has been digested, and domestic policy goals have been initially achieved. The US may cut interest rates in the second half of the year, which could open up more domestic policy space. With the appreciation of the RMB, foreign capital and repatriated funds are attracted. The domestic economy has policy support at the bottom and is driven by economic recovery and high - tech industries at the top. The "national team" has announced share - increases, and relevant departments are promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market [8]. - Technology remains the main driving force, with the rise concentrated in technology blue - chip stocks, showing some extreme trading structure characteristics. There is still room for the re - evaluation of Chinese assets, but its sustainability requires the support of macro - policies. Futures should be intervened during pull - backs [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Suggestions - Suggestions include seizing the structural opportunities of the semi - annual report performance wave, focusing on technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power with stable profitability, and paying attention to the dynamic allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [2]. 3.2 Market Performance - In August, global indices mainly rose. Domestic indices generally outperformed overseas indices, with the STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Among the Shenwan primary industries, most sectors rose, with communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors leading the way. Only the banking sector declined [13]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Situation 3.3.1 Overseas Situation - In the US, employment data in July slowed more than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Inflation pressure continued in July, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, and the expectation of a future interest - rate cut will continue to be affected by economic data [23]. - In the Eurozone, the CPI remained the same as the previous value in July. The service PMI in July increased and remained above the boom - bust line, with the service PMI at 51.0, the manufacturing PMI at 49.8, and the composite PMI at 51.0 [24]. 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - In July, the official manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, at 49.3%. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, still above the critical point [35]. - Export growth continued to increase in July, with the export amount increasing 7.2% year - on - year. The total export in the first seven months was 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. The future Sino - US tariff game will affect import - export data and A - share risk appetite [36]. - The growth rate of social retail sales continued to slow down in July, with a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The growth rate of the automobile sub - item turned negative, at - 1.5%. The CPI returned to zero in July, and the PPI remained negative, with the CPI at 0.0% year - on - year and the PPI at - 3.6% year - on - year [37]. - From January to July, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment slowed down to 1.6%, and real - estate investment continued to decline, with the growth rate of real - estate development investment at - 12.0% [45]. - Real - estate data remained weak. From January to July, the growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 12.0%, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing was 4.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the newly - started area was 19.5% [46]. - The total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size remained negative. In July, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year, and from January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased 1.7% year - on - year [57]. - At the end of July, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 9.0%. The growth rate of M2 continued to rise, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. In July, M2 increased 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 increased 5.6% year - on - year [58]. 3.4 Liquidity - Since May, the capital interest rate (DR007) has remained at 1.4%, and future policy developments should be continuously monitored [62]. - The market trading was active in August, with the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan on multiple trading days. The margin trading balance continued to rise in August and has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 Index Valuation - In August, the index mainly fluctuated upward, and the valuation center also rose. The PE quantiles showed a differentiated trend. As of August 29, the PE of the ChiNext Index was 41.01, with a quantile of 35.55 since 2015, in the medium - low historical level. The PE of the STAR 50 Index was 185.69, with a quantile of 99.93 since its listing in 2020, at a historical high [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [7600] price level for the 12601 contract. The demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with marginal improvement in the pattern and short - term upward drivers. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new capacity being put into production and high existing production loads [6]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, different hedging strategies are recommended. For example, factories and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and concerns about PE price drops can buy put options and short futures contracts on the futures market; traders and end - customers can take corresponding actions according to their purchase and inventory management needs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - **Standard Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has risen synchronously, and the basis has weakened slightly. The basis in East China has weakened by 10 to around - 100 yuan/ton, in North China by 30 to around - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China by 30 to 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Non - standard Basis**: The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread has fallen back to the previous low of around - 10 this week. The L - PP01 spread has risen steadily and is currently close to 300 yuan/ton. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and the demand for agricultural films starts in September [42]. 3.2. Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest production capacity share (67.22%), with the East China oil - based cost at 7443 yuan/ton; the coal - based process (18.82%) is an important supplement with relatively high profits, and the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost is 5250 yuan/ton [54][55]. - **Production Profits**: This week, oil prices continued to fluctuate, and the oil - based end profits have recovered compared with the previous period. The Northeast Asian ethylene price has remained stable, and the profit from purchasing ethylene for production has weakened recently. The coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains high, while the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under tight supply and demand [57]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of August 2025, the newly added domestic PE capacity is 370.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.38%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 613 million tons, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 17.17%. This week, the PE production was 61.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.31 million tons compared with the previous week, and the operating rate decreased by 8.1% to 78.72% due to many device overhauls [78][79][80]. 3.3. US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price**: The northwest European price is at a high level, especially for LD and ED. The US dollar price in the Chinese market has shown mixed trends; the Southeast Asian price is stable with weak demand, and the South Asian price has declined due to poor rainy - season demand [102]. - **Import Profit**: The import windows for LD and some HD have opened, and the market offers have increased compared with the previous period [111]. 3.4. Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: As the peak season approaches, the demand is gradually recovering. Some agricultural film enterprises have seen a slight increase in orders, but it is still in the off - season and weaker than previous years. The packaging film operation rate has increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the operation rates of pipes, blow - molding, and injection - molding have also changed to different extents [128]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of plastic film products such as agricultural film and packaging film are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand, but specific profit data are not comprehensively summarized in the text. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased by 5.74 million tons to 50.19 million tons, with the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increasing by 5.8 million tons and the coal - based inventory decreasing by 0.06 million tons. The social inventory has decreased by 1.21 million tons to 55.65 million tons. The downstream restocking and transactions are weak, with the upstream inventory accumulating and the social inventory continuing to decline [151]. 3.6. Position, Transaction, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The positions of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 577,012, 571,625, and 600,000 respectively [161]. - **Transaction Volume**: The transaction volumes of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 900,022, 800,000, and 1,119,745 respectively [162][163][164]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L registered warehouse receipts on August 22, 2025, is also provided in the document, but specific analysis is not further elaborated [169].

【UR周报20250824】第三批出口配额消息落地，盘面冲高回落 日期: 2025-08-24 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【UR周报20250824】第三批出口配额消息落地，盘面冲高回落 核心观点 * 合约: UR601 ® 观点： 尿素 短期易跌难涨，但下方空间有限，在1700价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： ①近利国内装置计划检修有所趋加。但对供应筑整体影响有限，产量和开工同比维持高位；②需求讲回内攻需进入谈季，工业复合肥开始秋季生产，需求碳整体支撑有限； 忽成本销近规划保持弱势，尿素成本支撑下 移至1500-1600附近。 ④出口政策逐步落地，关注后期具体出口数量。总体来看，国内需求总体有所走弱，供应端压力凸显，关注出口是否能对价格形成支撑， | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形写向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR2601 contract for sugar is expected to be prone to short - term decline but with limited downside space, finding support at the 5500 price level. Globally, the sugar supply - demand remains in a competitive situation. In the 2025/26 season, major producing countries are expected to increase production. In Brazil, the 2025/26 crushing season is in its peak, and with an abundant harvest expected, the market is mainly in a stable operation, though ethanol mixing has raised the price floor, providing short - term support for raw sugar. In China, the production and sales scale is relatively fast, but the third - party inventory situation is complex. With the increase in the arrival of raw sugar in recent months, the supply side remains loose. Terminal consumption has improved to some extent with the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling [3]. - It is recommended to conduct interval trading with a high - selling strategy for the SR2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5500 yuan per ton, and near this cost, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price and Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: This week, the ICE raw sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then rose. The basis between futures and spot slightly recovered, but the basis value slightly declined. As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 240 yuan/ton, and that of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 316 yuan/ton [8][13][14]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads among different futures contracts, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads, showed certain changes this week. The price spreads between different regions' spot white sugar also had corresponding fluctuations. The spread between starch sugar and white sugar was also presented in the report [8]. 3.2 International Supply - **Brazil**: The 2024/26 sugar - crushing season in Brazil has a fixed output of 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared to the previous period, but still within a historically high - output range. As of the first half of July in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in July showed an increase, and based on the weather in the second half of July and the first half of August, the short - term production is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 41 million tons. As of August 8, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil's São Paulo region was 65.57%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.51 cents per pound. As of August 13, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons from the previous week [33][34][61]. - **India and Thailand**: India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, reaching about 34.9 million tons. Thailand's 2024/25 season production reached 10.0418 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [81][86]. - **Global**: The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season has a marginally tightened loose pattern compared to the previous period. The 2025/26 season is expected to turn to a loose pattern. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus [96]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Production**: The 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in China has ended, with a total output of 11.1621 million tons. Guangxi's output was 6.46 million tons, and Yunnan's was 2.4188 million tons. Other regions also increased production due to the expansion of planting areas [105]. - **Import**: The quota - free import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, and the arrival of sugar continued to increase. It is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. The import of syrup and premixed powder is also under control, with the import of items under tariff code 170290 remaining at a low level, while the import of items under 2106.90.6 increased significantly [116][117][138]. 3.4 Sales and Inventory - **Sales**: As of the end of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5961 million tons, with a sales rate of 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the previous year. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 3.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons, with a sales rate of 85.01%, 2.51 percentage points higher than the previous year [150]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June 2025, the industrial inventory in China was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [154][161]. 4. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and also sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders looking to build inventory and buy sugar at low prices can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders with inventory aiming to sell at high prices can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises in need of raw materials worried about price increases can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises with high raw material inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The corn market is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Due to high yields, imported corn supplements the market supply, and the overall supply is sufficient. The price difference between corn and wheat remains in the substitutable range, with wheat being widely used as a substitute for corn. Alongside the substitution of millet and other grains, these factors suppress the corn price. The planting area of new crops is high, and the expected yield per unit is good, so the new crop yield is still expected to be abundant. The lowest planting cost of the new crop on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift downward. Under multiple negative factors, it is expected that c2509 will oscillate downward, and the later price center is expected to shift downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Corn Supply - **Supply**: The domestic corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the growth of new - season corn is good. The current main variable is the weather during the growth period, especially rainfall. The NDVI data shows that the growth of corn in Northeast China is significantly better than in previous years, while in North China, although affected by extreme weather, the growth is still around the annual average. Overall, the expected yield per unit of corn in the main production areas is good [9][10]. - **Import**: The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the total corn import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The USDA estimates that China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season will be 4 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][19][20]. - **Substitutes**: Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes is decreasing. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is near parity, and wheat has a high cost - effectiveness, exerting great pressure on the feed - use substitution of corn. In June 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 23.83% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 32.71% year - on - year [29][30]. Demand - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, the parent - stock of white - feather broilers, and the hatching volume of laying - hen chicks are all at high levels, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs is at a low level, the profit of broiler breeding is seasonally rising, and the profit of laying - hen breeding has deteriorated [34][35][36]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has rebounded to a neutral level, with Shandong and Heilongjiang showing relatively high rates. The corn starch production has also increased, but the downstream提货量 is low, and the production profit is severely in the red. The consumption of corn by corn alcohol enterprises has slowed down, and the operating rate has reached a new low [55][56]. Inventory - **Corn Trade and Inventory**: The inventory of trade channels and downstream users is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 8, the inventory of the four northern ports continued to decline, and the domestic trade inventory of southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises continued to decrease, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises continued to reach a new high in the past eight years [83][84][85]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of corn 01, 05, 09 contracts at Jinzhou Port and the basis data of starch 01, 05, 09 contracts in Jilin area on August 14, 2025 [117][119][121]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread data of corn 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and the spread data of starch 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, as well as the spread data between corn and starch 01, 05, 09 contracts [127][128][129]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 14, 2025, the corn warehouse receipt quantity was 222,298 hands, and the corn starch warehouse receipt quantity was 25,000 hands [140]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - **Traders**: For procurement management, build inventory and seek to buy corn at low prices. Use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option at an entry price of 8. For inventory management, sell corn at high prices and use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: For procurement management, when in need of corn raw materials and worried about price increases, use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option. For inventory management, when the raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, China's national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, but the consumer side still needed promotion. Fiscal financing and direct financing dividends under low - interest rates supported the total social financing, yet private - sector credit repair faced challenges. Abroad, the US economic soft - landing uncertainty increased, and the euro - zone economic situation also had its own characteristics. The RMB exchange rate showed an appreciation trend in August, but two - way fluctuations would continue [3][36][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **Consumption**: In July, China's total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2.84228 trillion yuan, a 4.8% increase. By consumption type, in July, retail sales of goods were 342.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and catering revenue was 45.04 billion yuan, a 1.1% increase [20]. - **Investment**: From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. National real - estate development investment was 536.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [20]. - **Foreign Trade**: In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, a 1.6% decrease [6]. - **PMI**: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [8]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - In July 2025, fiscal financing and direct - financing dividends under low - interest rates supported the total social financing, but private - sector credit repair faced challenges. In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.4 trillion yuan. At the end of July, the social financing scale stock was 43.126 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%. In July, new RMB loans were - 50 billion yuan, the first negative growth since July 2005 [36]. - At the end of July 2025, the balance of broad - money M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% [36]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - In July, China's consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% month - on - month. Core CPI continued to rise year - on - year, up 0.8%. The producer price index (PPI) was down 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy showed initial results, with prices in some industries stabilizing [41][42]. 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - **United States**: In July, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, but there were differences among committee members [7][9]. - **Eurozone**: In July, the euro - zone HICP was 2.0% year - on - year, and the core HICP was 2.3% year - on - year [16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - In August 2025, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to appreciate. The exchange - rate strengthening was driven by factors such as the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, the improvement of domestic economic data, and the release of the backlog of US - dollar settlement demand. In the future, the two - way fluctuation pattern would continue [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2,800 price level for the SH509 contract. The market is mainly driven by potential negative feedback on the operating rate due to price drops and the impact of domestic demand. Without significant event shocks, the upside for the near - term is expected to be limited [3]. - The rebound of caustic soda futures this week was mainly due to the approaching delivery of the near - term contract and the strengthening of the near - term spot, which pushed up the market expectations. However, the subsequent upward potential depends on the verification of the peak season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - The domestic low - concentration caustic soda market price increased week - on - week. In Shandong, the average price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda rose from 836 yuan/ton (converted to 2,618.75 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the beginning of the week to 847 yuan/ton (2,646.875 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the end of the week. The price increase was due to factors such as new orders, improved delivery, and reduced inventory pressure [11]. - The price of 50% caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions also showed certain trends, and the report provided historical price data for different regions and types of caustic soda [17][22][23]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions were presented, along with historical data [33]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions were analyzed, and historical data were provided [33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda production was estimated to be 82.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [50]. - Some enterprises in Hubei and Zhejiang completed their maintenance, while some in Jiangxi and Hunan started maintenance, with the overall maintenance impact decreasing compared to last week [50]. - The report also provided information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, and the production and maintenance plans of different enterprises [51][56][60]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the profit margin of alumina was acceptable, and the operating capacity remained at a high level. As of August 14, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.2 million tons and an operating rate of 82.93%. However, there was a possibility of subsequent production cuts [63]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% [63]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 14, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.19%. The industry showed a mild recovery [63]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 275,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%. The inventory in North China increased, while that in Northeast, Central, and East China decreased [77]. - The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 25,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.3% due to slow sales and increased supply [77]. 3.6 Valuation - The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market had a slight increase this week, and the动力煤 market price rose slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side was compressed [81][82]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provided data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also presented information on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [94][95][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of urea is more likely to decline than rise, but the downside space is limited, with support at the price of 1700. The reasons include an increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, high production and operation rates year - on - year, a shift of domestic agricultural demand to the off - season, limited overall demand support from industrial compound fertilizers, a weakening cost support for urea moving down to around 1500 - 1600, and the implementation of export policies. Attention should be paid to the specific export volume later [3]. - Overall, the domestic urea supply remains high and the pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand has weakened compared with the previous period. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand for industrial compound fertilizers is at a low level. The overall demand support is relatively weak. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the urea price, so it is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - side Logic**: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but the coal - based production cost is at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [6]. - **Supply - side Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic maintenance devices has increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. The domestic production volume remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply is loose [6]. - **Demand - side Logic**: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, last week's meeting approved an export quota of 20 - 300,000 tons to India, but this quota is included in the first two batches, and there is no new third - batch export quota. The total export quota remains unchanged. From the current export inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [6]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - **Urea Market Price**: This week, the domestic urea spot market has declined weakly, with the average price in the mainstream regions falling by about 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The current market supply - demand pattern remains loose, the hype expectation for exports has faded, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. The bearish sentiment in the spot market is strong, and the downstream procurement psychological price continues to decline. Urea factories generally adopt a "price - for - volume" strategy, but high - priced goods have difficulty in trading [26]. - **Regional Price Differences**: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range, which can be used to judge whether the regional logistics window is open [38]. - **Urea Spot Profit**: Recently, domestic coal prices have been mainly stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. The ex - factory price of urea has continued to decline, and the profit of coal - based urea has slightly narrowed. The price of natural gas under the agreement has been stable, and the profit of gas - based urea in the southwest region has remained stable [54]. - **Comparison with Other Fertilizers**: The current ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate and potash fertilizers are at relatively low levels compared with previous years [65]. - **Overseas Prices and Price Differences**: China is a net exporter of urea. The theoretical export profit can be calculated based on the difference between overseas prices and domestic trade prices to judge the possibility of exports. The international urea price has generally decreased after the market digested the Indian tender, and it is expected to decline further in the future [70][80]. - **Price Differences and Calendar Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea has strengthened by 7 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the decline in the spot and futures prices this week, the basis has continued to weaken. For example, the basis of the 09 contract in Henan has weakened by 33 yuan/ton compared with last week [79]. 3.3 Urea Production, Sales, and Inventory - **Supply - Production and Operation**: This week, the domestic urea production volume is 134.86 million tons (Longzhong's data), an increase of 2.01 million tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% compared with last week. Among them, the operation rate of coal - based urea is 85.51%, and that of gas - based urea is 75.77%. The maintenance loss of domestic urea devices this week is 19.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons compared with last week [94][101]. - **Demand - Agricultural Fertilization**: No specific and useful information about agricultural fertilization demand is provided in the document. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizers**: This week, the market price of compound fertilizers has been stable with partial slight stability. The operation rate has increased by 1.98% to 43.48%, and the inventory has increased by 2.61 million tons to 82.65 million tons [117]. - **Demand - Melamine**: This week, the production volume of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28% compared with last week. The domestic melamine market has continued to rise, supported by the reduction in supply. However, the demand is still weak, and the support from raw materials is limited [128]. - **Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory is 113.43 million tons (Longzhong's data), a decrease of 1.37 million tons compared with last week, and the port inventory is 39.8 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared with last week. According to Baichuan's data, the enterprise inventory and port inventory also show different trends [139].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for soybean meal is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. In the short term, the futures market is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, there may be an opportunity for the futures market to strengthen [3]. - The downside space for rapeseed meal is also limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the weak adjustment of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the development of China - Canada trade policies [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The new - crop US soybean yield is expected to be optimistic, and the export demand is expected to be bearish. The CBOT soybean is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the guidance of the August USDA report and the subsequent China - US trade progress [16]. - This week, the US soybean price fluctuated. The new - crop US soybean has a relatively high good - quality rate, and the export demand is expected to be pessimistic, which further suppresses the CBOT soybean price. The good - quality rate in the US soybean producing area decreased slightly to 69% this week, and the yield is still optimistically expected. The CBOT soybean price is expected to continue the weak trend [17]. - The US soybean export sales and inspection data show that the 24/25 new - crop export net sales increased counter - seasonally to 468,000 tons, and the 25/26 new - crop export net sales are at a low level in the same period [18]. 2. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The near - month Brazilian soybean premium has a strong upward trend, and the procurement progress for the October shipment has increased. The South American soybean export is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade policy changes [27]. - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 78%. Argentina has permanently reduced the export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products, which is expected to increase the sales enthusiasm of Argentine farmers [28]. 3. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - The non - commercial net long positions and their proportions of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal as of July 29, 2025, are presented in the report [43][49][51]. 4. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed - producing area has improved, and the EU's rapeseed yield is expected to be good. The global rapeseed supply - demand contradiction in 2025/26 is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to the implementation of production and the development of China - Canada trade relations [54][55]. - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.8% week - on - week to 55,100 tons. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast [56]. 5. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In July, the arrival of soybeans in China remained at a high level, and the supply pattern of soybean meal continued to be loose, with the spot basis remaining weak. The soybean meal futures market fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot price followed the increase. The cost of imported soybeans is strongly supported, but the market is still worried about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [66][67]. - China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.818 million tons or 18.4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans in domestic oil mills in August is about 10.6925 million tons, and the procurement progress for August and September shipments is 100% [68]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed consumption improved. As of August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2599 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.36%. The estimated soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week (August 2 - 8) is 2.213 million tons, and the operating rate is 62.21% [86]. - The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation expectation continues. The rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory decreased [98]. - As of August 6, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 3.0446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9024 million tons. The spot trading volume was 350,400 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 2.6942 million tons [102].