1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2,800 price level for the SH509 contract. The market is mainly driven by potential negative feedback on the operating rate due to price drops and the impact of domestic demand. Without significant event shocks, the upside for the near - term is expected to be limited [3]. - The rebound of caustic soda futures this week was mainly due to the approaching delivery of the near - term contract and the strengthening of the near - term spot, which pushed up the market expectations. However, the subsequent upward potential depends on the verification of the peak season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - The domestic low - concentration caustic soda market price increased week - on - week. In Shandong, the average price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda rose from 836 yuan/ton (converted to 2,618.75 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the beginning of the week to 847 yuan/ton (2,646.875 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the end of the week. The price increase was due to factors such as new orders, improved delivery, and reduced inventory pressure [11]. - The price of 50% caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions also showed certain trends, and the report provided historical price data for different regions and types of caustic soda [17][22][23]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions were presented, along with historical data [33]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions were analyzed, and historical data were provided [33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda production was estimated to be 82.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [50]. - Some enterprises in Hubei and Zhejiang completed their maintenance, while some in Jiangxi and Hunan started maintenance, with the overall maintenance impact decreasing compared to last week [50]. - The report also provided information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, and the production and maintenance plans of different enterprises [51][56][60]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the profit margin of alumina was acceptable, and the operating capacity remained at a high level. As of August 14, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.2 million tons and an operating rate of 82.93%. However, there was a possibility of subsequent production cuts [63]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% [63]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 14, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.19%. The industry showed a mild recovery [63]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 275,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%. The inventory in North China increased, while that in Northeast, Central, and East China decreased [77]. - The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 25,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.3% due to slow sales and increased supply [77]. 3.6 Valuation - The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market had a slight increase this week, and the动力煤 market price rose slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side was compressed [81][82]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provided data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also presented information on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [94][95][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of urea is more likely to decline than rise, but the downside space is limited, with support at the price of 1700. The reasons include an increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, high production and operation rates year - on - year, a shift of domestic agricultural demand to the off - season, limited overall demand support from industrial compound fertilizers, a weakening cost support for urea moving down to around 1500 - 1600, and the implementation of export policies. Attention should be paid to the specific export volume later [3]. - Overall, the domestic urea supply remains high and the pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand has weakened compared with the previous period. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand for industrial compound fertilizers is at a low level. The overall demand support is relatively weak. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the urea price, so it is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - side Logic**: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but the coal - based production cost is at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [6]. - **Supply - side Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic maintenance devices has increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. The domestic production volume remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply is loose [6]. - **Demand - side Logic**: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, last week's meeting approved an export quota of 20 - 300,000 tons to India, but this quota is included in the first two batches, and there is no new third - batch export quota. The total export quota remains unchanged. From the current export inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [6]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - **Urea Market Price**: This week, the domestic urea spot market has declined weakly, with the average price in the mainstream regions falling by about 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The current market supply - demand pattern remains loose, the hype expectation for exports has faded, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. The bearish sentiment in the spot market is strong, and the downstream procurement psychological price continues to decline. Urea factories generally adopt a "price - for - volume" strategy, but high - priced goods have difficulty in trading [26]. - **Regional Price Differences**: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range, which can be used to judge whether the regional logistics window is open [38]. - **Urea Spot Profit**: Recently, domestic coal prices have been mainly stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. The ex - factory price of urea has continued to decline, and the profit of coal - based urea has slightly narrowed. The price of natural gas under the agreement has been stable, and the profit of gas - based urea in the southwest region has remained stable [54]. - **Comparison with Other Fertilizers**: The current ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate and potash fertilizers are at relatively low levels compared with previous years [65]. - **Overseas Prices and Price Differences**: China is a net exporter of urea. The theoretical export profit can be calculated based on the difference between overseas prices and domestic trade prices to judge the possibility of exports. The international urea price has generally decreased after the market digested the Indian tender, and it is expected to decline further in the future [70][80]. - **Price Differences and Calendar Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea has strengthened by 7 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the decline in the spot and futures prices this week, the basis has continued to weaken. For example, the basis of the 09 contract in Henan has weakened by 33 yuan/ton compared with last week [79]. 3.3 Urea Production, Sales, and Inventory - **Supply - Production and Operation**: This week, the domestic urea production volume is 134.86 million tons (Longzhong's data), an increase of 2.01 million tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% compared with last week. Among them, the operation rate of coal - based urea is 85.51%, and that of gas - based urea is 75.77%. The maintenance loss of domestic urea devices this week is 19.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons compared with last week [94][101]. - **Demand - Agricultural Fertilization**: No specific and useful information about agricultural fertilization demand is provided in the document. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizers**: This week, the market price of compound fertilizers has been stable with partial slight stability. The operation rate has increased by 1.98% to 43.48%, and the inventory has increased by 2.61 million tons to 82.65 million tons [117]. - **Demand - Melamine**: This week, the production volume of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28% compared with last week. The domestic melamine market has continued to rise, supported by the reduction in supply. However, the demand is still weak, and the support from raw materials is limited [128]. - **Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory is 113.43 million tons (Longzhong's data), a decrease of 1.37 million tons compared with last week, and the port inventory is 39.8 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared with last week. According to Baichuan's data, the enterprise inventory and port inventory also show different trends [139].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for soybean meal is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. In the short term, the futures market is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, there may be an opportunity for the futures market to strengthen [3]. - The downside space for rapeseed meal is also limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the weak adjustment of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the development of China - Canada trade policies [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The new - crop US soybean yield is expected to be optimistic, and the export demand is expected to be bearish. The CBOT soybean is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the guidance of the August USDA report and the subsequent China - US trade progress [16]. - This week, the US soybean price fluctuated. The new - crop US soybean has a relatively high good - quality rate, and the export demand is expected to be pessimistic, which further suppresses the CBOT soybean price. The good - quality rate in the US soybean producing area decreased slightly to 69% this week, and the yield is still optimistically expected. The CBOT soybean price is expected to continue the weak trend [17]. - The US soybean export sales and inspection data show that the 24/25 new - crop export net sales increased counter - seasonally to 468,000 tons, and the 25/26 new - crop export net sales are at a low level in the same period [18]. 2. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The near - month Brazilian soybean premium has a strong upward trend, and the procurement progress for the October shipment has increased. The South American soybean export is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade policy changes [27]. - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 78%. Argentina has permanently reduced the export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products, which is expected to increase the sales enthusiasm of Argentine farmers [28]. 3. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - The non - commercial net long positions and their proportions of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal as of July 29, 2025, are presented in the report [43][49][51]. 4. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed - producing area has improved, and the EU's rapeseed yield is expected to be good. The global rapeseed supply - demand contradiction in 2025/26 is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to the implementation of production and the development of China - Canada trade relations [54][55]. - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.8% week - on - week to 55,100 tons. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast [56]. 5. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In July, the arrival of soybeans in China remained at a high level, and the supply pattern of soybean meal continued to be loose, with the spot basis remaining weak. The soybean meal futures market fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot price followed the increase. The cost of imported soybeans is strongly supported, but the market is still worried about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [66][67]. - China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.818 million tons or 18.4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans in domestic oil mills in August is about 10.6925 million tons, and the procurement progress for August and September shipments is 100% [68]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed consumption improved. As of August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2599 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.36%. The estimated soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week (August 2 - 8) is 2.213 million tons, and the operating rate is 62.21% [86]. - The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation expectation continues. The rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory decreased [98]. - As of August 6, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 3.0446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9024 million tons. The spot trading volume was 350,400 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 2.6942 million tons [102].

Report Information - Report Title: [White Sugar Weekly Report 20250808] Processed Sugar Captures Market, Spot Quotes Decline Steadily [1][2][10][26][39][62][79][89][105][116][128][141][148] - Date: 2025 - 08 - 08 [1][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR509 contract of white sugar is likely to decline in the short term but has limited downside space, with support at the 5600 price level [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with the SR2509 contract expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range [3]. - Key factors to monitor include Brazil's production, India's production, EU policies, and domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. White Sugar Weekly Data Summary - **Futures Prices**: This week, the 1 - month closing price was 5573 yuan/ton, the 5 - month closing price was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month closing price was 5680 yuan/ton. Compared with intraday prices, the 1 - month price decreased by 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - month price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month price decreased by 53 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the spot prices of white sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 70 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 70 yuan/ton respectively compared with last week [7]. - **Basis**: As of August 8, the basis of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 280 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts was 18,615, a decrease of 858 compared with last week [7]. 2. International Supply Brazil - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The output was set at 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with the previous season, but still within a historically high - output range [32]. - **Production in the 2025/26 Season**: As of the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in the first half of July was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 42 million tons, which will put pressure on raw sugar prices [33]. - **UNICA Bi - weekly Data**: In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the 2025/26 season to the first half of July was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [42][43]. - **Alcohol - to - Oil Ratio and Ethanol - to - Sugar Price**: As of August 1, the alcohol - to - oil ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.57%, and the ethanol - to - sugar price was about 14.10 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 2.04 cents/pound over the ethanol - to - sugar price [58]. - **Export and Inventory**: In July, Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses, a decrease of 4.98% compared with the same period last year. As of August 6, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 5.5777 million tons [77]. As of July 15, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 339,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years [73]. India and Thailand - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, the estimated net sugar production was about 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to reach about 34.9 million tons, an 18% increase [76]. - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar production was 10.0418 million tons, a significant increase compared with last year. In the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. Global Production - **2024/25 Season**: The global sugar supply was still in a loose pattern, but the tightness was marginally reduced from the previous period [87]. - **2025/26 Season**: The global sugar supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions predicting supply surpluses ranging from 115,000 to 7.5 million tons [87]. 3. Domestic Supply - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.56%, and the cumulative sales rate was 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the same period last year [103]. - **Import**: The quota - free import profit window opened earlier, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. In June, the domestic sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons [119]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Import**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. The import of three types of goods under the 170290 tariff item remained at a low level, while the import of two types of goods under the 2106906 tariff item increased significantly [134]. 4. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: The market supply is sufficient, and sugar mills face great pressure in sales. Traders and middlemen have little intention to stock up, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed [143]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national industrial inventory was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Ih2509 contract for live pigs is in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline later. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although demand is expected to seasonally increase in the second half of 2025, the impact of economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences may limit the boost. Therefore, the rebound space for pig prices is limited, and they will remain under pressure overall. However, due to policy disturbances, strong market sentiment, and the approaching peak season, short - term pig prices may be strong, but the upside space is limited under sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging to lock in sales prices, and food enterprises can purchase as needed and buy call options to control procurement costs while selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [3]. - The jd2509 contract for eggs is also in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and supply pressure continues to weigh. Demand has seasonal changes within the year, but limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the expected fluctuation range is limited. Considering cost and profit, the price of eggs is expected to remain at a low level. The demand for the 09 contract is in the declining phase after the peak season, and with high supply, there is insufficient support. It is recommended to short on rallies. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging when egg prices are under pressure, and food enterprises can control procurement costs by buying call options and selling out - of - the - money put options [3]. Summary by Sections Live Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million, indicating persistent over - capacity. The supply in 2025 will be at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [14]. - The average slaughter weight has slightly decreased but remains high. With the approaching of the autumn and winter peak season, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may gradually increase, and farmers are expected to slow down the slaughter rhythm, so the weight is unlikely to decline significantly [15]. - **Demand Analysis** - Currently, demand is in the off - season, and the slaughter volume remains low. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage create short - term demand and provide support at low prices. Recently, most secondary fattening pigs are being sold, and attention should be paid to future changes in the secondary fattening rhythm [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of August 7, the breeding cost of large - scale farms using the self - breeding and self - raising model is 13.09 yuan/kg, and that of the purchased piglet model is 14.44 yuan/kg. Breeding enterprise profits are shrinking [35]. - The breeding capacity is relatively stable. Farmers are still cautious about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement by large - scale farms, and the enthusiasm for purchasing piglets is average [36]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state's reserve purchase and release of pork regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the live pig market. In the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, the National Development and Reform Commission will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year [45]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for live pigs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [8]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since the second half of 2024, the enthusiasm for replenishment has been high, so the number of newly - laid hens will be high until the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens is relatively limited, so the inventory of laying hens will remain at a relatively high level until the third quarter [64]. - In the short term, the laying rate is seasonally low, and the number of culled old hens has increased recently, but the overall supply is still abundant [65]. - Due to the weakening of feed prices, the breeding cost of eggs has decreased, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [66]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population structure, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend in recent years. In the medium - and short - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality, with short - term peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, demand is seasonally rebounding, and food factories are starting to stock up [76]. - Although the improvement in supply and the rebound in demand support the stability of spot prices, the overall supply remains high, and the price of the JD2509 contract is expected to be under pressure as it is in the post - festival period [77]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Data on the inventory days of fresh eggs in the production and circulation links are provided, showing their changes over time [84]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for eggs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The c2509 contract is affected by multiple negative factors such as high production, sufficient supply from imported corn, substitution by wheat and other grains, high new - crop planting area, and expected good yield. The new - crop's minimum planting cost on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift down [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - The corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the new - crop corn is growing well. The current main variable in future supply is the weather during the growing period, especially rainfall. This week, the national corn market continued to be weak, with both futures and spot prices falling significantly. Different regions have different supply and demand situations. The new - crop production expectation and cost center shift down drive the futures price down [7][8]. Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The estimated import volume for the 2024/25 period is 5 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 period [16][17]. Substitutes - Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure from imported substitutes is decreasing. The main domestic substitutes are wheat and millet, and the imported substitutes are mainly imported sorghum and barley. The wheat market is oscillating, and the current corn - wheat price difference in North China is in the substitutable range, so the substitution pressure on corn is high. In June 2025, the import volume of barley and sorghum decreased year - on - year, reducing the substitution pressure [26][28]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is generally average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, parent - stock white - feather broilers, and egg - laying chicken seedlings is at a high level, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit is at a low level, the broiler breeding profit is seasonally high, and the egg - laying chicken breeding loss has expanded [32][34]. Deep - processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has risen significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has recovered to a neutral level, about 54.8%. The production of corn starch has also increased, but the downstream提货 volume is relatively low. The production profit of corn starch is severely in the red, and the profit of corn alcohol enterprises is still in the red [54][55]. Inventory Trade Channel Corn Inventory - The inventory in trade channels and downstream is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 1, the inventory in the four northern ports continued to decline, with the total inventory dropping to about 1.9 million tons. The domestic trade inventory in southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises reached a new high in the past eight years, about 1.32 million tons [78][80]. Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of feed enterprises continues to decrease, with the available inventory days at around 30 days, and the inventory in North China and South China is relatively high [79]. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally, with the national inventory at about 3.64 million tons, at a neutral level [79]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch, including the basis of different contracts in Jinzhou Port and Jilin area, and the spread between different contracts of corn and starch [114][124]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On August 7, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [132].

Report Title - The report is titled "Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report 20250808: New Cotton Growth Generally Good, Focus on Peak Season Demand Boost" [1][2][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The short - term macro situation has uncertainties, demand expectations are weak, new cotton planting area may continue to increase, and structural supply has attracted market attention, forming a phased support. In the medium and long term, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, domestic production may remain high, demand expectations are poor, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve. Therefore, the rebound space of cotton is limited, the overall market is still under pressure, and the operation suggestion is to short after the rebound [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand Balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, cotton consumption was frustrated, but production remained at a relatively high level, and domestic cotton shifted from destocking to stockpiling with a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In 2025/26, production is expected to be good, but demand is still under pressure due to macro and policy disturbances, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. According to the July 2025 cotton information network data, in 2025/26, cotton production is expected to be at a high level, consumption is basically stable, imports have decreased significantly, and the ending inventory has decreased [12][13] - **New Cotton Growth**: Cotton is usually sown in May and harvested in mid - September. In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached about 685 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and under normal climate conditions, the new - season output is expected to be high, and currently, the new cotton growth is generally good, with the whole Xinjiang cotton entering the peak flowering and boll - setting stage [19] - **Inventory Situation**: In the 2023/24 season, cotton supply was sufficient with a high carry - over inventory. Currently, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. The market is concerned about the possible short - term structural supply shortage, but the industrial inventory remains at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still high. As of the end of June, the commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons from the previous month, and the industrial inventory was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons from the previous month [23][24] - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and attention should be paid to cotton imports. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month and an 82.1% decrease from the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% decrease year - on - year [34][43] - **Downstream Demand**: Overseas interest - rate cuts and US tariff policies are uncertain, and the Xinjiang cotton issue remains unresolved, so the foreign trade situation is expected to be severe. Although domestic policies are boosting the economy, the demand recovery remains to be seen. Recently, the sales of downstream yarns in some areas have improved, and grey - cloth orders have increased, but overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and finished - product inventory has increased. In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 127.5 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 13.078 billion US dollars, a 0.76% increase year - on - year [47][52] Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as state - reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the state - reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [55][57] Global Supply and Demand - **Overall Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio has increased slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decrease slightly, demand will recover, and the ending inventory will continue to increase. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the growth and harvest period with an optimistic production outlook, while the major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growth period. The weather in the US cotton - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing in India is behind schedule compared with the same period last year [66] - **Major Countries' Situations** - **United States**: In the 2024/25 season, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvest area remained high, the yield per unit is expected to decrease, and production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but subsequent demand remains to be tracked. Last week, US cotton contract signings declined, and shipments increased [72] - **Brazil**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% increase year - on - year [72] - **India**: As of July 18, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year [72] Spread and Basis - The report provides data and trends on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread, 5 - 9 spread) and basis (such as cotton 01 basis, 05 basis, 09 basis) [79][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply of PVC continues the weak trend, with high - yield production maintained. Domestic and export demands are weakening, and social inventory is continuously accumulating. However, recently, as coal prices strengthen, the cost - chain support of coal - based production has strengthened, which may limit the downward space [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply and Demand Supply - The risk lies in the possible upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide if coal prices rise in the future, and the cost - side support is expected to strengthen [9]. - In 2025, the first - quarter has seen a new production capacity of 500,000 tons. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, and the annual production capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. The pressure of production capacity release remains high. - On August 8, the overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 77.75%, a 4.49% increase from the previous period (due to planned maintenance). The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23% [13]. Demand - **Domestic demand**: The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [10]. - **Export**: On August 8, the export order volume sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 5.08% compared to the previous period and increased by 1.89% year - on - year [14]. Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,400 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Disk Data - The PVC price was oscillating this week, mainly due to the game between cost and supply - demand. In terms of supply - demand, the supply remained high, new production capacity was yet to be fully released, while the downstream was still in the off - season, social inventory continued to increase, and registered warehouse receipts also increased. However, on the cost side, driven by the rise in coal prices, semi - coke enterprises raised prices, and the supply of calcium carbide enterprises decreased under the influence of power restrictions, leading to an increase in the cost of the industrial chain. - The basis was at a discount to the disk. This week, the East China 09 basis was around - 200; the 9 - 1 spread was weakly running at - 140. - The position of the 09 contract decreased to around 635,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 63,200 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional spread**: The spread between East and South China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 127, and the spread between East and North China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 27. - **Ethylene - calcium carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread oscillated around 307 [33]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium - carbide - based profit**: The current calcium - carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide - based production has shrunk, mainly because the cost has strengthened while the PVC spot price has been weakly oscillating. - For northwest integrated enterprises, the price of semi - coke, a cost factor, increased slightly this month, and the comprehensive profit decreased slightly to around 500 yuan/ton. - For enterprises purchasing calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide increased this week. The comprehensive profit of northwest enterprises purchasing calcium carbide decreased to around 800 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was compressed to near the break - even point [43][44]. - **Ethylene - based profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5% (excluding coal - to - methanol - to - ethylene). The adjustment range of the ethylene - based PVC spot price was limited. The profit of enterprises purchasing vinyl chloride was slightly profitable, while the profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene was a loss of 100 yuan/ton [45]. 3.5 Industry - related Product Situation Semi - coke - This week (August 8), the semi - coke price increased slightly. The medium - grade semi - coke in the Shaanxi market was traded at 620 - 650 yuan/ton. The cost pressure of semi - coke production enterprises remained under the firm coal price, and the production enthusiasm of most enterprises was average. Some enterprises had limited inventory, which supported a narrow increase in the ex - factory price, and the price remained stable after the increase. Downstream users mainly purchased on - demand, and the enthusiasm for inventory replenishment was not high. The limestone price remained stable, and the mainstream ex - factory price in Wuhai was 55 - 70 yuan/ton. - On August 8, the operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises was 54.22%, a 0.57% increase from the previous period. - In the future, the coal consumption of downstream power plants may increase due to high - temperature in August, and the cost pressure will still exist. In addition, the demand for small - sized semi - coke and foreign trade orders are expected to increase, so semi - coke still has room for improvement. The trend of coal prices and the inventory of semi - coke enterprises need to be monitored [66]. Calcium Carbide - This week (August 8), the overall price of calcium carbide shifted upward. The market price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased from 2,250 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply decreased due to maintenance or peak - shaving production, and the price center of calcium carbide in most northwest regions shifted upward. The purchase prices in central and northern China remained stable. - On August 8, the average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased to 68.89%, a 3.94% decrease from the previous period. One reason is the unstable power supply in Inner Mongolia, and some calcium carbide plants in Wuhai were affected by peak - shaving production. The other reason is that some calcium carbide plants in Ningxia and Gansu were affected by the increase in electricity prices and carried out maintenance or peak - shaving production. - In the future, some affected calcium carbide plants this week are expected to resume production, but the increase in the operating rate may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia. During the peak electricity - consumption season in August, the operating rate may be unstable. On the demand side, the demand for calcium carbide from PVC plants increased in the first half of August but is expected to be limited in the second half. The semi - coke price may be firm, and the impact of coal - related policies needs to be monitored. Overall, the supply - demand support for calcium carbide is relatively limited, but if the supply decreases more than expected due to peak - shaving production or if the coal price increase is transmitted to the entire coal - based cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [70][75]. Caustic Soda - This week (August 8), the caustic soda market changed little. The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton in some areas and increased by 10 - 110 yuan/ton in others. The non - aluminum demand in Shandong, Hebei, and South China was weak during the off - season, and the mainstream transaction price center shifted downward. The price in the southwest region increased slightly due to plant maintenance. - On August 8, the weekly operating rate of the caustic soda sample was 85.1%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period, and the weekly inventory was 461,700 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous period. - In the future, most chlor - alkali enterprises will operate normally, with sufficient supply. During the off - season, downstream users will mainly purchase on - demand. The overall price may be weak, but the price in some areas may increase slightly due to maintenance and low inventory [80]. 3.6 Supply - **Production capacity growth**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, Bohua Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - based plant was tested in July and is expected to be in full production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into production in the third quarter; Jiahua Energy's 300,000 - ton plant is planned for the third or fourth quarter, and other plants may be postponed. The annual production capacity growth rate may be around 6.4%, and the relatively certain growth rate in the third quarter may be 3.18% (900,000 tons/28.33 million - ton capacity) [84]. - **Operation and maintenance**: The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week (including long - term shutdown enterprises) was 54,240 tons, a decrease of 27,180 tons from the previous week. Only Ordos No. 2 Factory is planned to be under maintenance next week, and some previously maintained enterprises may resume production. The maintenance loss is expected to decrease next week. The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23%. The risk is that the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide may strengthen the cost support [85]. 3.7 Import and Export - In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a 63.80% increase from the previous month. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a 32.61% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia regions, and the import remains at a low level, with an import dependence of about 1%. - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a 27.61% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export from January to June was 1.9606 million tons, a 21.03% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.20%. The main destination is still India. - In June 2025, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor materials was 323,600 tons, an 8.09% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.091 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the same period last year. The main destinations are the United States and Canada [113]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [136]. - **Real estate**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 11.2%, and the decline slightly expanded; the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 20%. The investment confidence has not recovered, and the willingness to start construction is poor. The front - end indicators such as investment, new construction, construction, and completion all showed significant year - on - year declines, indicating that the capital pressure of real estate enterprises has not been substantially relieved, and the development willingness remains weak. Although the decline in the sales end has narrowed, a 3.5% year - on - year decline still shows that the recovery momentum of the demand end is insufficient, and there is a time lag in the transmission of policy relaxation to the market. The real estate market may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [155][156]. 3.9 Inventory - On August 8, some production enterprises tried to maintain prices, the arbitrage space for traders was limited, and the procurement enthusiasm of hedgers was average. Some factories received fewer orders. Some enterprises had high pre - sales in the previous period and mainly delivered previous orders this week. The salable inventory of sample production enterprises increased compared to the previous period, reaching 496,500 tons, an increase of 42,150 tons. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly compared to the previous period, reaching 327,250 tons, a decrease of 13,430 tons. - As of August 8, due to the decrease in maintenance on the supply side of domestic PVC, the increase in operation, and the normal market arrival, the market price first decreased and then increased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for receiving orders was poor. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. As of September 1, the original sample inventory in East China was 405,000 tons, a 7.31% increase from the previous period and an 18.58% decrease year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 665,800 tons, a 6.60% increase from the previous period and a 20.76% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 52,600 tons, an 8.45% increase from the previous period and a 32.83% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,800 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [171].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, China's domestic price level stabilized month - on - month, and export growth exceeded expectations. The "anti - involution" policy contributed to price stability, and external demand remained resilient. In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was close to the recession threshold, increasing the uncertainty of economic soft - landing [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP and Consumption**: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Consumption supported economic growth [15] - **Industrial Added Value**: In June 2025, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year. The mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [16] - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In the first half of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% [16] - **Export and Import**: In July 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports increased by 8% and imports by 4.8%. In the first seven months, exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, and imports were 10.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.6% [4] - **PMI**: In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points [5] 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - **Social Financing**: In June 2025, the new social financing in a single month was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [34] - **Credit**: In June 2025, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. The balance of credit increased by 7.1% year - on - year [34] - **Money Supply**: In June 2025, the M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed to 3.7% [34] 3.3 Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024 [43] - **PPI**: In July 2025, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and 4.5% year - on - year [43] 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - **US Economy**: In July 2025, the new non - farm payroll employment in the US was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation. The market's pricing of the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 81%. On July 30, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged [54][55] - **Eurozone Economy**: In August 2025, the Eurozone HICP was 2.0%, and the core HICP was 2.3% [13] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rate**: In August 2025, the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar. The on - shore and off - shore RMB both stood firm at the 7.18 mark. The exchange rate was driven by factors such as the expected Fed interest rate cut, the improvement of domestic economic data, and the release of dollar settlement demand [66]