1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The current and expected supply - demand patterns are significantly different. The upstream has reported production this year, and the demand shows weakness. As winter approaches, the active de - stocking pressure of upstream enterprises may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - It is recommended that production enterprises use options for inventory management, trade enterprises consider building inventory and use options for procurement and inventory management, and terminal customers use options for procurement and inventory management according to their own situations [2]. - Key data to focus on include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance information of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in the inventory of caustic soda plants [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, mainly including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/ton of 100% caustic soda) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/ton of 100% caustic soda) at the end of the week. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a certain inhibitory effect on the market [11]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends over time [29]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi also had different performance trends [29][33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. The maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week are less, and the supply has increased [40]. 3.3.1 Load and Output - The weekly operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda showed different trends over time [41][45]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many chlor - alkali enterprises have experienced long - term shutdowns, maintenance, and restarts. This week, the expected impact on the output of 100% caustic soda is 19,420 tons. Some enterprises also have future maintenance plans [48]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operating Conditions - The operating conditions of flake caustic soda plants of different manufacturers vary, including normal operation, under - capacity operation, and maintenance [52]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply decreased slightly this week. As of November 13, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 118 million tons, the operating production capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025 was 89.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories showed differentiation, and the order situation was not good [55]. 3.5 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants in China was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory showed an increasing trend [74]. 3.6 Valuation - Cost side: The price of industrial salt in China remained stable this week, and the price of thermal coal increased slightly. The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity, with electricity accounting for about 60% of the total cost [78]. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side weakened week - on - week [79]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report also provided price, operating rate, and profit data of PVC, epoxy propane, and epichlorohydrin, which are chlorine - consuming downstream products [87][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the core CPI showing continuous growth. The PPI decline narrowed, indicating some improvement in the domestic economic situation. The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results [3][41]. - The US government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and although the September inflation data slowed down more than expected, it is difficult to change the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [45][46]. - In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by multiple factors, and is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the second quarter [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing industry accelerated its growth, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.6% from January to September [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the first nine months turned negative, at - 0.7%. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Real estate investment continued to cool down, while the decline in narrow - sense infrastructure investment narrowed [18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [18]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In September 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Import and Export Data**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase. In September, exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations [7]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In September 2025, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [35]. - **Credit Data**: In September 2025, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The recovery rhythm of credit demand was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [36]. - **Money Supply**: In September 2025, the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting positive signals such as increased business activity and recovery of personal investment and consumption demand [35]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food and energy prices were still at a low level, but the decline rates narrowed [41]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year, and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing for the third consecutive month [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Economy**: In September 2025, the US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly affected by the decline in rent prices. The US federal government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and the Fed may still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [45][46]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the Eurozone HICP decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the core HICP remained unchanged [14]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by factors such as the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals, improvement of the international balance of payments, and policy guidance. It is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. - **Interest Rates**: The report also presented data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is prone to decline but has limited downside space in the short term, with support at the 4600 price level. The v2601 contract is the focus. The supply and demand of PVC continue to weaken, with high production, weak domestic and export demand, and high social inventory. However, the current cost support is strengthening, and the profit compression is obvious, which restricts the downward space [3]. - Different market participants are given corresponding operation suggestions, such as traders and terminal customers with inventory are recommended to do short - futures hedging, and those in need of procurement are recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to data such as the PVC powder overall operating load rate on November 7, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China, the PVC weekly operating rate on November 14, and the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China on November 14 [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: As of October 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity in the year was 1.9 million tons, and the withdrawn capacity was 200,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6.08%. It is estimated that the total new capacity in 2025 will be 2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.15%. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.28%, a 2.19% increase from last week, and the annual cumulative output is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 4.04% [9]. - **Demand**: The downstream operation of hard products has improved, and most of the time, they purchase on demand, only increasing the replenishment volume appropriately at low prices and resisting high - price raw materials. The operation of soft product films is okay. The suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods by the United States for another year is beneficial to glove exports to some extent. The trading pick - up enthusiasm is average, and most maintain normal procurement [7]. - **Cost**: The increase in coal prices intensifies the loss pressure of semi - coke manufacturers, driving up the semi - coke price and strengthening the cost support for calcium carbide. The ex - factory price of calcium carbide may remain stable, and there is a possibility of an increase if the short - term cost pressure continues to increase, but the increase is restricted by the weak PVC market [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises have sufficient supply, while the demand is weak, and the export market lacks substantial support. Some chlor - alkali enterprises still face shipment pressure, and the price may remain weak. Some high - concentration liquid alkalis may stabilize their prices under the support of inventory and orders [8]. 2. Disk Data - **Price Trend**: This week, the PVC price fluctuated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was mainly rigid, and the export had no bright performance. The social inventory remained at the highest level in the same period of history. The price trend was weak, but it was supported by cost to some extent. The upward movement of coal brought stronger cost support, and the weakness of caustic soda price weakened the "subsidy of alkali for chlorine", resulting in the comprehensive profit of northwest integrated enterprises approaching the break - even point [17]. - **Data Performance**: The basis was at a discount to the disk. The East China 01 basis strengthened to around - 130 this week; the 1 - 5 spread was weakly running at - 304. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.3389 million lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to around 121,500 lots (exceeding the level of the same period last year) [18]. 3. Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The East - South China calcium carbide method spread fluctuated around - 139, and the East - North China calcium carbide method spread strengthened to 21. The ethylene - calcium carbide price spread narrowed to around 219 [29]. 4. Profit Performance - Different production processes have different profit situations. For the calcium carbide method, the comprehensive profit of northwest integrated chlor - alkali enterprises was - 345 yuan/ton; for the ethylene method, the comprehensive profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene externally in East China was 766 yuan/ton [41]. 5. Raw Material Situation - **Semi - coke**: The operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises on November 7 was 64.5%, remaining the same as the previous period. Some semi - coke plants in Shaanxi have plans to resume production, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to intensified losses. The semi - coke price may still have the possibility of stabilizing and improving under cost support [65]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The ex - factory price of calcium carbide may remain stable, and there is a possibility of an increase if the cost pressure continues to increase, but the increase is restricted by the weak PVC market. The average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry increased slightly to 75.23% this week, a 0.22% increase from last week [73][77]. - **Caustic Soda**: The liquid caustic soda market continued to operate weakly this week. The 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda locally decreased by 10 - 200 yuan/ton. The weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda samples was 84.8%, a 0.5% increase from last week, and the weekly inventory was 414,800 tons, a 6.28% decrease from last week. In the future, the price may remain weak, and some high - concentration liquid alkalis may stabilize their prices [86]. 6. Supply - **Capacity Expansion**: As of October 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity in the year was 1.9 million tons, and the withdrawn capacity was 200,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6.08%. It is estimated that the total new capacity in 2025 will be 2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.15% [92][93]. - **Operation and Maintenance**: The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.28%, a 2.1% increase from last week. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 53,490 tons, a 17,310 - ton decrease from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss next week will increase slightly compared with this week [94][95]. 7. Import and Export - **Import**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,100 tons, and the cumulative import from January to September was 175,600 tons. The monthly import increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year increase was 0.76%. The imports mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [129]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC export volume was 346,400 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 2.9216 million tons. The monthly export increased by 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.63%. The main destinations were still India, followed by Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [129]. - **Export Outlook**: This week, the sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 3.58% compared with last week and increased by 6.58% year - on - year. The volume to be delivered decreased by 8.76% compared with last week. It is estimated that the export will slow down in the fourth quarter, but the slowdown amplitude is limited, mainly due to India's anti - dumping tax policy and BIS certification [139]. 8. Demand - **Downstream Operating Load**: The downstream operation of hard products has improved, and most of the time, they purchase on demand, only increasing the replenishment volume appropriately at low prices and resisting high - price raw materials. The operation of soft product films is okay. The suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods by the United States for another year is beneficial to glove exports to some extent [153]. - **Terminal Situation**: From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, completion area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [172][174]. 9. Inventory - The inventory of PVC sample production enterprises' salable products increased this week, with an increase of 57,500 tons compared with the previous period. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased by 2,500 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China increased. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 520,700 tons, a 0.04% increase from the previous period and an 18.15% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 942,900 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period and a 19.55% increase year - on - year [188].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Methanol is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The near - term is still dominated by weak reality. High port inventory, high imports, and continued inventory accumulation trends, along with the marginal deterioration in the inland market and the delayed progress of gas - shutdown of Iranian devices, are putting pressure on methanol prices [3][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Production Cost and Profit - The price of thermal coal continues to rise. Affected by supply tightening and winter storage expectations, traders are generally optimistic about the winter storage market, with strong reluctance to sell. However, the current price has exceeded the acceptance level of downstream terminals, resulting in light actual transactions. The coal - to - methanol production profit has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure [6][53]. Supply - This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the shutdown progress of natural - gas devices in the southwest. The external operating rate has declined. Iranian devices are operating at a high load, and it is reported that three enterprises plan to shut down from late November to December. Other regions have various device conditions, such as some devices in Tebah and Malaysia being in overhaul [6]. Demand - As the methanol price falls, the profit of port MTO has improved, and the inland methanol price has also loosened, with the MTO profit also rising. However, the future expectations for MTO devices are poor, with some devices having shutdown and overhaul plans. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different situations in various sub - industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, etc. [6][7]. Inventory - Inland inventory has increased by 10,400 tons to 386,400 tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has increased by 5,500 tons to 221,100 tons. Port inventory has increased by 10,600 tons to 1,517,100 tons, with inventory accumulation in the East China region and destocking in the South China region [7]. Regional Price Difference/Freight and Logistics Window - Port prices have stabilized after falling with the futures market, and the spot pressure is relatively high. Inland prices have rebounded, driven by large - scale device overhauls and increased external procurement of olefin devices. Freight rates are showing a weak downward trend. The opening and closing of logistics windows help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand disparities [14][24]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of coal - to - methanol has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure. As of October 2025, the non - CTO device capacity has increased by 1.63% this year, and it is expected that the annual capacity growth rate will be 7.71%. This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly [53][78][82]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - Global methanol prices are generally falling. The import profit of Iranian methanol and non - Iranian methanol shows certain trends. The external operating rate has declined, and the import volume and arrival volume have their own characteristics. The import volume in September was 1.4269 million tons, with a net import of 1.4092 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.22% but a month - on - month decrease of 19.01% [112][134][170]. Downstream Profit and Load - The profit of MTO has improved as the methanol price falls, but the future expectations for MTO devices are poor. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different profit and operating rate situations in various sub - industries [176][219].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of downward oscillation, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The PP market is facing supply pressure due to new capacity coming online during the production capacity expansion period and high existing production loads. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. As a result, the price of polypropylene may continue to move downward [7]. - The price of polypropylene continued to fall this week, with the PP01 contract dropping below 6,500 yuan/ton. The domestic commodity market sentiment has weakened again, putting pressure on commodity prices. The fundamentals of polyolefins have not changed significantly, with supply at a high level and demand in the peak season but lacking sufficient support [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has also declined significantly, with the basis strengthening slightly. The East China basis strengthened by 20 to around -100 yuan/ton, the North China basis strengthened by 10 to around -170 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened by 30 to around -100 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional and Non - standard Spread**: The North China - East China regional spread has fallen to a low level, and the South China - East China regional spread has oscillated. Among the non - standard spreads, the injection molding - drawing spread and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread have both strengthened, indicating that non - standard products are relatively firm [33][34]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has further declined to around -110, at a low level over the years. The L - PP01 spread has remained above 300, and the PP - 701 spread is at a high level, suggesting greater supply pressure for PP. The methanol market pattern is weak, with high imports leading to a record - high port inventory, and the methanol price has continued to decline [52]. 3.2 Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Production Profits**: This week, the oil price has slightly oscillated downward to around $63.5 per barrel (Brent). The oil - based production end profit is at a relatively good level in recent years. In the medium to long term, the supply in North Asia from the Middle East and the United States is expected to increase, putting pressure on the PDH - based PP price, but the PDH - based profit has improved month - on - month. The power coal price has continued to rise, the CTO profit has deteriorated but remains at a high level, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under pressure [68]. - **Domestic Production Volume and Load**: In 2025, as of October, the new domestic PP production capacity has totaled 4.155 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 11%. This week, the PP production volume was 796,500 tons (+7,300 tons), the operating rate was 77.78% (+0.72%), and the supply loss volume was 228,400 tons [99][100][113]. - **Production Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing production scheduling ratio may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [124]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profits - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [135]. - **Import - Export Profits**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and inquiries are limited. With the increase in shipping costs, enterprises have offered discounts on exports to promote transactions. In terms of imports, although China's price is relatively low globally, the weak external demand has led to a decline in the purchasing capacity of overseas buyers, resulting in an increase in goods flowing to China [152]. 3.4 Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - **Downstream Operating Rates**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.26%, the BOPP operating rate increased by 0.88%, and the operating rate of PP pipes increased by 0.5%. In the future, the demand for terminal products will be slightly supported by the e - commerce festival and the cold weather, but the peak season is coming to an end [155]. 3.5 Inventory - Production enterprise inventories have increased by 48,000 tons to 599,900 tons, with Sinopec and PetroChina inventories increasing by 163,000 tons. Traders' inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, and port inventories have decreased by 700 tons [216].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade consultations have achieved positive results, and the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The Fourth Plenary Session released the conference communiqué, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" was released, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological innovation. The technology sector rebounded significantly, and the energy storage sector continued to explode, extending to upstream battery cell materials. In the medium to long term, the domestic market is driven by internal factors, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, and the stock index still has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The international situation is complex, but the Sino-US economic and trade consultations have reached consensus in multiple aspects such as tariffs and maritime affairs. The US has entered a new interest rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds. The current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. The "15th Five-Year Plan" raises the requirements for scientific and technological innovation and expands domestic demand, with the major policy directions for the next five years taking shape. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium to long-term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle. The future performance of the index depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on allocating technology growth sectors with certain profitability, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low-valued defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rose slightly. The weekly and year-to-date changes of major domestic indices are as follows: the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed mixed performance, with sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals rising significantly, while sectors such as beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology declined [11][15]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds promoted the recovery of M2, while M1 remained in a continuous slump. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while the weakness of RMB loans was the main drag, indicating that the recovery of real economic financing demand still takes time. The M1 - M2 "scissors gap" continued to narrow. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 009.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the consecutive decline. The M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in negative growth for seven consecutive months [13][16]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, and the index strengthened in a volatile manner. The monthly new account openings showed fluctuations. The trading volume of the two markets (MA5) remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [26]. Index Valuation - As of November 8, 2020, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.64, with a quantile of 84.47, and the latest PB was 22.20, with a quantile of 85.48. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50. The index valuation is at an absolute low level [34]. Index Industry Weight - As of June 30, 2025, the weights of the SSE 50 in banking, non-bank finance, and food and beverage are relatively high, accounting for 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth-largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 are more diversified, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non-bank finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 1000 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [42][43]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target, implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates were lowered, and a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" were summarized, and policies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" were set. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué put forward 7 major goals and 12 major deployments for the "15th Five-Year Plan", focusing on science and technology and expanding domestic demand [48][49]. - The US Federal Reserve is about to enter a new interest rate cut cycle, with a 25BP rate cut in October. As of November 7, the probability of another rate cut in December exceeds 60%, and there may be one more rate cut this year [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed resilience in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP exceeding the annual target. However, domestic economic indicators have been slowing since June, indicating weak domestic demand. The government needs to further strengthen policies to support economic growth. Additionally, international trade frictions, such as China's export controls on rare earths and the US's proposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, may also pose challenges to the economy [3][16][17]. Summary by Directory I. Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 1,015,036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, exceeding the annual growth target of about 5%. In the third quarter, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, and the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7% year-on-year [3]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month. From January to September, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month [17]. - **Fixed Asset Investment**: From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Real estate development investment was 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [3]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the growth rate was 4.5%. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value [3][17]. - **Import and Export Data**: In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In September, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus reached 90.5 billion US dollars [5]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. - **PMI**: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [6]. II. Financial Situation - **Social Financing Scale**: In September, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.8 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [34]. - **Credit Data**: In September, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The demand recovery rhythm was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [35]. - **Money Supply**: As of the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year-on-year, M1 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.5% year-on-year [9]. III. Price Related - **CPI**: In September, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 1.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month [40]. - **PPI**: In September, the industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [40]. IV. Overseas Macro - **US Government Shutdown**: Since October 1, the US federal government has been shut down again. The shutdown has led to the suspension of economic data release and the stagnation of multiple public services, and its negative impact on the US economy is gradually emerging [45]. - **US Inflation**: In August, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [46]. - **US Economic Indicators**: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.0 [13]. V. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In October, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated within a narrow range. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate may continue to fluctuate widely, with the range expected to be between 7.0 and 7.2. In the long term, the trend will depend on the synergy between the strength of China's economic recovery and the Fed's monetary policy path [54]. - **Interest Rates**: The report provides data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields, but no in-depth analysis is provided [55][56].

Report Title - The report is titled "PP Weekly Report 20251026: Rebound Window" [2][7] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The contract is pp2601. PP is in the capacity release period, with new installations being put into operation successively and high existing production loads, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it falls short of expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. Under the situation of oversupply, the price center of polypropylene may continue to move downward [6]. - This week, the price of PP has rebounded. On one hand, the previous decline was significant and the trend was smooth. On the other hand, the previous negative factors have eased. The Sino - US trade conflict has eased, and pessimistic sentiment has subsided. In addition, crude oil prices rebounded significantly this week, increasing cost support and driving up chemical products. The Fourth Plenary Session also had a certain emotional guidance. There were limited changes in its own fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products decreased, with some shipping pressure, and the basis strengthened slightly. The basis in East China strengthened by 10 to around - 90 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around - 130 yuan/ton, and strengthened by 20 to around - 80 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis of plastic performed stronger than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional Spread**: The spreads between North China - East China and South China - East China both strengthened [31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spread between injection molding and drawing decreased further, while the spread between low - melt copolymer and drawing strengthened [32]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PP futures decreased slightly to around - 50. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread declined. Overall, PP has greater supply pressure (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for film has started, and the recovery of PP demand is relatively slow, so the L - PP spread is gradually repairing upwards. At the same time, the cost side of PP (PG, MA) is also under pressure, further strengthening the spread [58]. 2. Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based production maintained a relatively good profit level in recent years. Although the price of Brent crude oil dropped to around $80/barrel this week due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and the resurgence of trade war risks, the oil - based production profit remained stable [64]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of propane in North Asia is expected to be marginally relaxed in Q4, and the PDH - made PP profit improved quarter - on - quarter [64]. - The price of动力煤 continued to rise, but the CTO profit remained high. The price of methanol in the production area was firm under tight supply - demand conditions, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 44.01 million tons. In early 2025, China's PP production capacity was expected to increase by 2.655 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of September 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 4.155 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 11% [92][94][95]. - This week, the PP production was 801,000 tons (- 23,400 tons), and the operating rate was 75.94% (- 2.28%). The supply loss of PP was 246,600 tons, including 182,800 tons of maintenance loss and 63,700 tons of production reduction loss. There were more temporary maintenance plans for production enterprises this week, and the subsequent planned maintenance is also relatively high, and the enterprise's operating enthusiasm is not high, so the maintenance volume may remain at a high level [10]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. Asian prices continued to be weak. The CFR Far East supply was in excess with weak demand, and prices in Southeast Asia were generally falling due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - priced domestic supplies. The supply - demand situation in South Asia was also poor. The spread between CFR China and the outer market rebounded [127][128]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and the counter - offer price is low. The export quotation center of production enterprises has shifted downward, and enterprises are making low - price concessions for transactions. On the import side, although China's price is at a relatively low level globally, the weak external demand has led to a decrease in the ability to accept goods, and more goods are flowing to China [145]. 4. Downstream Profit and Operation - **Downstream Operation**: After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.83%, a decrease of 0.09% quarter - on - quarter. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, with an increase in the use of fertilizer bags in agriculture and the recovery of construction infrastructure driving the demand for woven bags. The operating rate of BOPP increased by 0.48%, while that of CPP decreased by 0.32%. The operating rate of PP pipes decreased by 0.33%, and the operating rate of injection molding increased by 0.13%. In the traditional peak season, demand still has room to rise, but overall performance is relatively weak and difficult to absorb the high supply [148]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 6.787 million tons, with the inventory of two major oil companies increasing by 196,000 tons, coal - chemical industry inventory decreasing by 141,000 tons, PBI inventory decreasing by 85,000 tons, and local refinery inventory increasing by 3,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed of upstream production enterprises was slow, so the production enterprise inventory only decreased slightly this week [212]. - Trader inventory decreased by 225,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. As downstream demand gradually returned to normal, domestic trader inventory decreased, and the allocation of external resources to the domestic market increased [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. With the end of the peak season, terminal demand may face a weakening trend [6]. - In terms of pure benzene, from the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, it is bullish in the medium and long - term. Although the downstream may have lower - than - expected production due to high inventory and low profit, the upside space may be similar to that in Q3 2025, and the downside space is limited [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Industry Chain Profit Distribution - **Overall Situation**: The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit concentrated upstream. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has declined. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6][7]. - **Specific Indicators**: - **PXN**: The current value is 238.7, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 and a year - on - year increase of 61.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 67 [7]. - **TA Processing Fee**: The current value is 64.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 71.55 and a year - on - year decrease of 272.73. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 0 [7]. - **Styrene/Crude Oil**: At a low level, the current value is 2.02, with a month - on - month increase of 2.02 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.22. The 5 - year same - period percentile is 38, and the 1 - year rolling percentile is 27 [9]. - **PTA/Crude Oil**: It has declined recently. The current value is 1.29, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 54 [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Bearish in the future. The current value is 65.99, with a month - on - month increase of 4.93 and a year - on - year decrease of 8.39. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 20 [10]. - **Naphtha Crack Spread**: In a downward trend. The current value is 89.42, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.51 and a year - on - year decrease of 45.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 31 [10]. - **BZN**: At a low level within the year, it started to rise in October after a continuous decline since mid - August and has declined recently. The current value is 103.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 26.63 and a year - on - year decrease of 114.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 2 [10]. - **Styrene Ethylbenzene Dehydrogenation Profit**: At a low level within the year, it started to decline oscillating at the end of June and has recovered recently. The current value is - 230.72, with a month - on - month increase of 108.2 and a year - on - year decrease of 767.86. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 6 [10]. 3.2 Spot Situation of Each Link - **Naphtha MOPJ**: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis has rebounded recently [29]. - **BZ Paper Cargo Basis**: It has rebounded recently [29]. - **PX (01 Contract Basis)**: It has been running relatively smoothly recently [29]. - **Styrene (11 Contract Basis)**: Near 0, with little change [29]. - **PTA (01 Contract Basis)**: Relatively stable [29]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Upstream**: - **Cracking**: The cracking profit of naphtha in China and the profit of aromatic hydrocarbon combination have corresponding data performance, and the toluene disproportionation spread also has specific values [37][43][46]. - **Capacity and Maintenance**: The annual capacity has increased by 26 (current: 2787, previous: 2761), and the maintenance volume has increased by 0.55 (current: 5.32, previous: 4.77). Some enterprises have new maintenance, and some have ended maintenance [76]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Pure Benzene**: Multiple enterprises have put into production new capacities in 2025. The current annual production capacity growth rate of BZ is 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.1%. The current annual production capacity growth rate of downstream is 4.8%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.5% (or 22.8% considering some uncertain devices) [63][64]. - **PX**: The domestic start - up rate has corresponding data performance [85]. 3.4 Foreign Supply - China's aromatic hydrocarbons are mostly imported from South Korea. South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply. Currently, due to the weakening of gasoline blending, South Korean goods have flowed to China, and the domestic pure benzene supply has increased year - on - year. However, in the future, as South Korean maintenance increases, the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [99][100]. 3.5 Gasoline Blending - Related - **New - Malaysia Region**: Gasoline blending has weakened significantly in the past three months, and the region has returned to a net - import trend of gasoline [111]. - **US Gasoline**: The octane spread is weaker than the same period last year. The refinery profit is good, and high supply is expected to continue. The shutdown of a California refinery provides support for the gasoline crack spread [113]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: - **Styrene**: The profit is at a low level, the start - up rate has declined, and the inventory has increased recently [151][157]. - **Caprolactam**: The start - up rate is at a high level but has declined, the profit is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level within a year [158]. - **Adipic Acid**: The start - up rate is relatively high, and the profit is at a low level [151]. - **Phenol**: The start - up rate is relatively neutral, and the profit level is low [151]. - **Aniline**: The start - up rate is okay, the profit is at a historical low but at a high level within the year [151]. - **PX Downstream (PTA)**: The spot processing fee is about 100 yuan/ton. With the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is continuously compressed [200]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Home Appliances**: The sales of four major home appliances (TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators) have different performance trends. TVs have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing, and refrigerators have different sales trends online and offline [209][210]. - **Automobiles**: In August 2025, automobile sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing significantly [221]. - **Clothing and Textiles**: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].