Report Title - The report is titled "PP Weekly Report 20251026: Rebound Window" [2][7] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The contract is pp2601. PP is in the capacity release period, with new installations being put into operation successively and high existing production loads, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it falls short of expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. Under the situation of oversupply, the price center of polypropylene may continue to move downward [6]. - This week, the price of PP has rebounded. On one hand, the previous decline was significant and the trend was smooth. On the other hand, the previous negative factors have eased. The Sino - US trade conflict has eased, and pessimistic sentiment has subsided. In addition, crude oil prices rebounded significantly this week, increasing cost support and driving up chemical products. The Fourth Plenary Session also had a certain emotional guidance. There were limited changes in its own fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products decreased, with some shipping pressure, and the basis strengthened slightly. The basis in East China strengthened by 10 to around - 90 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around - 130 yuan/ton, and strengthened by 20 to around - 80 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis of plastic performed stronger than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional Spread**: The spreads between North China - East China and South China - East China both strengthened [31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spread between injection molding and drawing decreased further, while the spread between low - melt copolymer and drawing strengthened [32]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PP futures decreased slightly to around - 50. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread declined. Overall, PP has greater supply pressure (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for film has started, and the recovery of PP demand is relatively slow, so the L - PP spread is gradually repairing upwards. At the same time, the cost side of PP (PG, MA) is also under pressure, further strengthening the spread [58]. 2. Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based production maintained a relatively good profit level in recent years. Although the price of Brent crude oil dropped to around $80/barrel this week due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and the resurgence of trade war risks, the oil - based production profit remained stable [64]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of propane in North Asia is expected to be marginally relaxed in Q4, and the PDH - made PP profit improved quarter - on - quarter [64]. - The price of动力煤 continued to rise, but the CTO profit remained high. The price of methanol in the production area was firm under tight supply - demand conditions, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 44.01 million tons. In early 2025, China's PP production capacity was expected to increase by 2.655 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of September 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 4.155 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 11% [92][94][95]. - This week, the PP production was 801,000 tons (- 23,400 tons), and the operating rate was 75.94% (- 2.28%). The supply loss of PP was 246,600 tons, including 182,800 tons of maintenance loss and 63,700 tons of production reduction loss. There were more temporary maintenance plans for production enterprises this week, and the subsequent planned maintenance is also relatively high, and the enterprise's operating enthusiasm is not high, so the maintenance volume may remain at a high level [10]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. Asian prices continued to be weak. The CFR Far East supply was in excess with weak demand, and prices in Southeast Asia were generally falling due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - priced domestic supplies. The supply - demand situation in South Asia was also poor. The spread between CFR China and the outer market rebounded [127][128]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and the counter - offer price is low. The export quotation center of production enterprises has shifted downward, and enterprises are making low - price concessions for transactions. On the import side, although China's price is at a relatively low level globally, the weak external demand has led to a decrease in the ability to accept goods, and more goods are flowing to China [145]. 4. Downstream Profit and Operation - **Downstream Operation**: After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.83%, a decrease of 0.09% quarter - on - quarter. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, with an increase in the use of fertilizer bags in agriculture and the recovery of construction infrastructure driving the demand for woven bags. The operating rate of BOPP increased by 0.48%, while that of CPP decreased by 0.32%. The operating rate of PP pipes decreased by 0.33%, and the operating rate of injection molding increased by 0.13%. In the traditional peak season, demand still has room to rise, but overall performance is relatively weak and difficult to absorb the high supply [148]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 6.787 million tons, with the inventory of two major oil companies increasing by 196,000 tons, coal - chemical industry inventory decreasing by 141,000 tons, PBI inventory decreasing by 85,000 tons, and local refinery inventory increasing by 3,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed of upstream production enterprises was slow, so the production enterprise inventory only decreased slightly this week [212]. - Trader inventory decreased by 225,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. As downstream demand gradually returned to normal, domestic trader inventory decreased, and the allocation of external resources to the domestic market increased [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. With the end of the peak season, terminal demand may face a weakening trend [6]. - In terms of pure benzene, from the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, it is bullish in the medium and long - term. Although the downstream may have lower - than - expected production due to high inventory and low profit, the upside space may be similar to that in Q3 2025, and the downside space is limited [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Industry Chain Profit Distribution - **Overall Situation**: The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit concentrated upstream. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has declined. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6][7]. - **Specific Indicators**: - **PXN**: The current value is 238.7, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 and a year - on - year increase of 61.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 67 [7]. - **TA Processing Fee**: The current value is 64.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 71.55 and a year - on - year decrease of 272.73. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 0 [7]. - **Styrene/Crude Oil**: At a low level, the current value is 2.02, with a month - on - month increase of 2.02 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.22. The 5 - year same - period percentile is 38, and the 1 - year rolling percentile is 27 [9]. - **PTA/Crude Oil**: It has declined recently. The current value is 1.29, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 54 [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Bearish in the future. The current value is 65.99, with a month - on - month increase of 4.93 and a year - on - year decrease of 8.39. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 20 [10]. - **Naphtha Crack Spread**: In a downward trend. The current value is 89.42, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.51 and a year - on - year decrease of 45.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 31 [10]. - **BZN**: At a low level within the year, it started to rise in October after a continuous decline since mid - August and has declined recently. The current value is 103.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 26.63 and a year - on - year decrease of 114.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 2 [10]. - **Styrene Ethylbenzene Dehydrogenation Profit**: At a low level within the year, it started to decline oscillating at the end of June and has recovered recently. The current value is - 230.72, with a month - on - month increase of 108.2 and a year - on - year decrease of 767.86. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 6 [10]. 3.2 Spot Situation of Each Link - **Naphtha MOPJ**: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis has rebounded recently [29]. - **BZ Paper Cargo Basis**: It has rebounded recently [29]. - **PX (01 Contract Basis)**: It has been running relatively smoothly recently [29]. - **Styrene (11 Contract Basis)**: Near 0, with little change [29]. - **PTA (01 Contract Basis)**: Relatively stable [29]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Upstream**: - **Cracking**: The cracking profit of naphtha in China and the profit of aromatic hydrocarbon combination have corresponding data performance, and the toluene disproportionation spread also has specific values [37][43][46]. - **Capacity and Maintenance**: The annual capacity has increased by 26 (current: 2787, previous: 2761), and the maintenance volume has increased by 0.55 (current: 5.32, previous: 4.77). Some enterprises have new maintenance, and some have ended maintenance [76]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Pure Benzene**: Multiple enterprises have put into production new capacities in 2025. The current annual production capacity growth rate of BZ is 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.1%. The current annual production capacity growth rate of downstream is 4.8%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.5% (or 22.8% considering some uncertain devices) [63][64]. - **PX**: The domestic start - up rate has corresponding data performance [85]. 3.4 Foreign Supply - China's aromatic hydrocarbons are mostly imported from South Korea. South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply. Currently, due to the weakening of gasoline blending, South Korean goods have flowed to China, and the domestic pure benzene supply has increased year - on - year. However, in the future, as South Korean maintenance increases, the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [99][100]. 3.5 Gasoline Blending - Related - **New - Malaysia Region**: Gasoline blending has weakened significantly in the past three months, and the region has returned to a net - import trend of gasoline [111]. - **US Gasoline**: The octane spread is weaker than the same period last year. The refinery profit is good, and high supply is expected to continue. The shutdown of a California refinery provides support for the gasoline crack spread [113]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: - **Styrene**: The profit is at a low level, the start - up rate has declined, and the inventory has increased recently [151][157]. - **Caprolactam**: The start - up rate is at a high level but has declined, the profit is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level within a year [158]. - **Adipic Acid**: The start - up rate is relatively high, and the profit is at a low level [151]. - **Phenol**: The start - up rate is relatively neutral, and the profit level is low [151]. - **Aniline**: The start - up rate is okay, the profit is at a historical low but at a high level within the year [151]. - **PX Downstream (PTA)**: The spot processing fee is about 100 yuan/ton. With the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is continuously compressed [200]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Home Appliances**: The sales of four major home appliances (TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators) have different performance trends. TVs have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing, and refrigerators have different sales trends online and offline [209][210]. - **Automobiles**: In August 2025, automobile sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing significantly [221]. - **Clothing and Textiles**: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].

Report Title - "Naphtha - Aromatics Industry Chain Weekly Report 20251026: Styrene Successfully Put into Production, but Seasonal Decline of Pure Benzene Still Needs Attention" [1][2][57] Core Viewpoints - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. The terminal demand may face a weakening trend after the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [6]. - From the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, pure benzene is bullish in the medium - long term, but in the short term, the upward space may be limited due to high downstream inventory and low profit [68]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Industry Chain Profit Distribution Overall Situation - The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit distribution skewed upstream. Styrene and TA processing fees are low. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has continued to decline. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6]. Specific Indicators - PXN: Currently at 238.7, down 1.13 month - on - month, up 61.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 67 [7]. - TA processing fee: Currently at 64.54, down 71.55 month - on - month, down 272.73 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 0 [7]. - Styrene/crude oil: Currently at 2.02, up 2.02 month - on - month, down 0.22 year - on - year, with a 5 - year same - period percentile of 38 and a 1 - year rolling percentile of 27 [9]. - PTA/crude oil: Currently at 1.29, down 0.08 month - on - month, up 0.01 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 54 [9]. - Crude oil: Bearish in the future. Currently at 65.99, up 4.93 month - on - month, down 8.39 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 20 [10]. - Naphtha crack spread: In a downward trend. Currently at 89.42, down 8.51 month - on - month, down 45.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 31 [10]. - BZN: At a low level within the year. Currently at 103.87, down 26.63 month - on - month, down 114.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 2 [10]. - Styrene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit: At a low level within the year. Currently at - 230.72, up 108.2 month - on - month, down 767.86 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 6 [10]. Spot Situation of Each Link General Principle - The strength of the spot end is mainly reflected by the strength of the basis [26]. Specific Situation - Naphtha MOPJ: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis rebounded [29]. - BZ paper cargo basis: Recently rebounded [29]. - PX (01 contract basis): Recently stable [29]. - Styrene (11 contract basis): Near 0, with little change [29]. - PTA (01 contract basis): Relatively stable [29]. Domestic Supply Upstream - Refinery cracking profit: Data shows the situation of cracking profit, capacity utilization, and output of ethylene from naphtha cracking in China [37]. - Aromatic combination profit: Data shows the profit of aromatic combination in China [43]. - Toluene disproportionation spread: Data shows the toluene disproportionation spread in China and Asia [46][51]. - PX domestic operating rate: There are data on the domestic operating rate of PX [55]. Mid - stream (Pure Benzene) - Capacity investment progress: As of October 3, 2025, the annual production capacity growth rate of BZ (petroleum benzene) was 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate for 2025 was 10.1%. The production capacity growth rate of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene was 4.8% as of September 2025, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate for 2025 was 10.5% (or 2.8% considering some uncertain projects) [63][64]. - Production and operation situation: The recent start - up is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, but there may be a marginal seasonal decline in the future. The weekly output decreased, the start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased recently [75][78]. Foreign Supply General Principle - China's aromatics are mostly imported from South Korea, so South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply [99]. Recent Situation - Logistics has a great impact on the pricing of pure benzene. China's import dependence on pure benzene is 15% - 20%. From January to September, the cumulative pure benzene production increased by 5%, and the total supply (production + net import) increased by 11%. However, in the future, South Korea's maintenance will increase, and the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [100]. Blending - related Singapore Blending - The Singapore and Malaysia regions have changed from a net gasoline - importing region to a net - exporting region due to naphtha blending. Recently, blending has weakened significantly, and the gasoline in the Singapore - Malaysia region has returned to a net - importing trend [110][111]. US Gasoline Fundamentals - The octane spread of US gasoline is weaker than the same period last year, close to the level before 2022. The gasoline crack spread is currently supported by unexpected maintenance of Nigerian refineries and demand recovery at the end of the summer peak season. The refinery profit in the US is good, and high supply is expected to continue [113]. Blending Economics - The blending economics of toluene, MX, and PX in the Americas and Asia are presented in the report [132][141]. Downstream Demand Pure Benzene Downstream - Styrene: Low profit, declining start - up rate, and increasing inventory [151][157]. - Caprolactam: High start - up rate, low profit, and high inventory [158]. - Adipic acid: High start - up rate, low profit [151]. - Phenol: Neutral start - up rate, low profit level [151]. - Aniline: Good start - up rate, historical low profit but high within the year [151]. PX Downstream (PTA) - PTA profit: The spot processing fee is at a level of about 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee is continuously compressed due to the future supply pressure after the commissioning of new plants [200]. - PTA start - up rate and inventory: There are data on the start - up rate, spot processing fee, and social total inventory of PTA [201]. Terminal Demand - Home appliance industry: The sales of color TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators have different trends. Color TV sales have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing functions, and refrigerators are affected by previous over - consumption [209][210]. - Automobile industry: In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.4% year - on - year and 10.1% month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 26.8% year - on - year [221]. - Clothing and textile industry: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst complex international situations and ongoing Sino-US negotiations, the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes scientific and technological innovation and domestic demand expansion, leading to a significant rebound in the technology sector. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds, and the stock index has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is conducive to RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflows. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and new technologies and consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, long - term funds and retail investors will enter a new investment cycle. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation value of low - valuation defensive sectors like finance (securities) and consumption [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. The Nasdaq rose 2.32%, the S&P 500 rose 1.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the ChiNext Index soared 8.05%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.27% as of October 24, 2025. Most of the 81 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with the communications, electronics, and power equipment sectors rising significantly, while only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage sectors declined [11][15]. 2. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds boosted M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. The recovery of real - economy financing demand still needs time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan, and the stock of social financing balance was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The growth rate slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new government bonds in September were 1.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 543.7 billion yuan [13][16]. - The fund rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was net - injected in September. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was around 1.7%. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [16]. 3. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, trading volume in the two markets decreased, but the heavy trading on Friday drove the index to rebound. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring. The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations from January to August, with 1.57 million in January, 2.88 million in February, 3.06 million in March, 1.92 million in April, 1.555 million in May, 1.6464 million in June, 1.9636 million in July, and 2.6503 million in August [23][25]. 4. Index Valuation - As of October 24, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index is at a low level. The latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.94, with a quantile of 87.30, and the PE of the entire A - share market is 22.59, with a quantile of 88.43. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [32]. 5. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors are relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. In the SSE 300, the weights are more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. In the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. In the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [45][46]. 6. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 3% and the CPI increase at around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were proposed, with a deficit ratio of about 4% and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund rate was cut by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market, such as those in the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, were promoted [50][51]. - Overseas policy tracking: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October by the Fed exceeded 30%, and there are still two potential rate cuts this year. China has implemented "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth controls, which has led to Trump's counter - measures of imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18 [52][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Ih2601 contract for live pigs is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to the high inventory of breeding sows and the recovery of production performance. The demand is expected to be seasonally strong, but the rebound space of pig prices in the second half of 2025 is limited, and the overall price will still be under pressure. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. - The jd2601 contract for eggs is also in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year-on-year, and the supply pressure continues to weigh on prices. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but the fluctuation range is limited. Considering the cost and profit issues, the egg price is expected to remain at a low level. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to limit the demand acceptance, and the price will still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the normal level of 30 million. The supply of live pigs will remain high until the first half of 2026. The出栏 rhythm of farmers may affect the short - term supply [11]. - After the previous active selling by farmers, the large - sized pigs have been digested. The出栏 weight has decreased slightly, but due to the cold weather and the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the decrease in出栏 weight is expected to be limited, and the weight will still remain at a relatively high level [12]. - **Demand Analysis** - As the weather turns cooler, the downstream demand has rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to the actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term demand, but the secondary fattening sentiment has declined after the recent price rebound [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of October 16, the breeding cost of self - breeding and self - raising scale farms is 12.49 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 14.39 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the production capacity has been reduced to some extent [35]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state has carried out central pork reserve purchase and storage work to regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the pig market. In the case of excessive price decline, the third batch of central pork reserve purchase and storage work will be launched [42]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of live pigs, such as the 09, 01, 05, 03, 11, 07, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 1 - 3, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1 spreads and bases in Henan [50][56][65]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of new - hatched chickens in the fourth quarter will decrease. At the same time, the number of culled chickens has increased, so the inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline, but it will still remain at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient [72]. - Recently, the replenishment has weakened, and the number of culled chickens has increased, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, but the inventory of laying hens is still high [73]. - **Cost Analysis** - Recently, the feed cost has decreased, and the breeding cost has also weakened. Currently, the breeding cost is about 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, the egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences. In the short - and medium - term, the egg demand has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the downstream low - price replenishment and e - commerce promotions have provided some support [83][84]. - **Substitute and Inventory Analysis** - The report provides data on the prices of main meats and vegetables, as well as the inventory days of eggs in the production and circulation links [97]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of eggs, such as the 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads and the 10, 12, 11, 01, 05, 09 bases in Hebei [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are likely to decline in the short term but have limited downside space, with support at the 2000 price level. It is recommended to focus on long - term long - buying opportunities for corn [2][5]. - Different participants in the industry are given corresponding operation suggestions. Traders for procurement management should build inventory, buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases, and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; traders for inventory management with inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level; downstream enterprises for procurement management should buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; downstream enterprises for inventory management with high raw material inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level [2]. - Key data to focus on include the selling pressure at the grass - roots level, changes in the inventory of the breeding industry, and the price difference between corn and wheat [2]. Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Continuous rainy weather has intensified the selling pressure in Henan and other regions, resulting in a significant impact from the overall market supply. The new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions has a large amount of harvest and listing, with high enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass - roots level. The arrival volume at the four northern ports and the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants have reached historical highs [7][8]. Corn Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a three - year low. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of ordinary corn was 890,000 tons, a decrease of 92.92% compared with the same period last year. The estimated import volume of corn in the 2024/25 season is 3 million tons, lower than the 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][18][19]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat has moved out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has decreased. The price of wheat has risen this week. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is around - 290 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 45.22% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 40.00% year - on - year [22][23]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is poor. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn used in compound feed was 32.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 percentage points. The inventory of breeding capacity is at a high level, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the breeding profit of broilers, and the breeding profit of laying hens are all in a poor state [31][32][33]. Corn Processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to recover, and the deep - processing production profit has improved rapidly. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises in the country has returned to a neutral level, with the operating rate in Shandong and Heilongjiang regions at a relatively high level. The production of corn starch has increased, and the downstream pick - up volume has recovered. The production profit of corn starch has recovered rapidly, and the profit of corn alcohol manufacturing in major producing provinces has also improved [47][48]. Inventory Channel and Downstream Inventory - Channel and downstream inventories have started to replenish, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of October 10, the inventory at the four northern ports has stopped falling and started to rise, but it is still at a low level. The inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has continued to rise seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises has increased and is at a high level in the past eight years [75][76][77]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch contracts such as C2601, C2605, and C2609, including the basis of corn and starch at different ports and regions, and the spread between different contracts [106][116][117]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of October 16, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 [126].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The SR2601 contract is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the future price center is expected to decline. Globally, the production increase cycle is not over, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain in a loose pattern. [3] Summary by Directory 产业链操作建议 - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge 100% of unsold inventory by selling SR601 at 5700 yuan/ton and 50% by selling SR601P5300 at 30 yuan/ton. - Traders planning to build inventory can buy 50% of SR601C5700 at 31 yuan/ton to hedge against price increases. - Sugar - using enterprises can follow similar strategies for both procurement and inventory management, and should also pay attention to UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data. [5] 日糖周度数据汇总 - Futures prices decreased this week compared to last week. For example, the 1 - month closing price dropped from 5496 yuan/ton to 5412 yuan/ton. - Spot prices in major regions also decreased, such as the price of Nanning white sugar dropping from 5800 yuan/ton to 5790 yuan/ton. - The basis increased slightly as the futures price decline was greater than the spot price decline. As of October 17, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 378 yuan/ton. [8] 白糖主要市场价格及价差 - The international raw sugar futures price fluctuated downward this week due to the expected oversupply. - Zhengzhou sugar followed the raw sugar price to decline and then rebounded slightly, with the center of gravity moving down. - The spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then declined. After the National Day holiday, the short - term replenishment demand ended, and the price was under pressure due to the increasing supply of beet sugar. [13][14] 国际供给 巴西生产情况 - As of the second half of September in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. The production is expected to increase to about 41 million tons. - In the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region was 3.137 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.76%), and the ethanol production was 2.213 billion liters (a year - on - year decrease of 1.50%). - As of October 10, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil was 67.69%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.11 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.90 cents/pound over the ethanol - converted sugar. - As of September 30, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 11.00674 million tons, close to the level of the same period last year. [39][46][51] 印度及泰国生产情况 - India's 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a recovery - type increase in production. The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons. - Thailand's 2024/25 crushing season's sugar production exceeded 10 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly due to factors such as favorable weather and government support. [65][68] 全球生产信息 - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 crushing season was in a loose pattern with marginal tightening. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions having different forecasts, such as Czarnikov predicting a supply surplus of 7.45 million tons. [73] 国内供给 - In the 2025/26 crushing season, the production is expected to increase to around 11.5 million tons. Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have started the sugar - making process. - From January to August 2025, China imported 2.0121 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, an increase of 4.86%. - The import of syrup and premixed powder is under control, but the import of products under the 2106.906 tax code still shows a significant year - on - year increase. [81][97][119] 销售情况 - There are two traditional peak demand seasons for white sugar in a year: the summer cold drink season and the Spring Festival stocking season. - After the National Day holiday, there was a short - term replenishment demand, but most traders and terminal enterprises still adopted a "buy - as - you - go" strategy due to the continuous decline in sugar prices, and the market digestion speed was slow. [129] 库存情况 - As the new crushing season of beet sugar begins and the domestic sugar sales progress is average, the inventory is expected to gradually increase after November. - As of the end of September 2025, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 442,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,700 tons; in Yunnan, as of the end of August, the industrial inventory was 204,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 92,900 tons. [136] CFTC持仓 - Not elaborated on in terms of specific analysis in the given content, only presenting relevant data charts of ICE11 - number sugar positions.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, Sino-US frictions have deepened, which will affect the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to undergo an adjustment, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, so there is still upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - In the future, attention should be paid to trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can still maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology growth tracks with profit certainty, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing significant drops. For example, the STAR 50 index fell by 6.16%, and the ChiNext index fell by 5.71%. Among global indices, the NASDAQ index rose by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng Tech index fell by 7.98% [12][17]. - By industry, the trends of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices were divergent this week. A few sectors such as coal, banking, and food and beverage rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications led the decline [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management products promoted the recovery of M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The M1 balance decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, and it has been in negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow [15][16][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while the weakness of RMB loans was the main drag, indicating that the recovery of real - economy financing demand still takes time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, with the growth rate slightly declining by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [18]. - The funds rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was injected in September. The yield of 10 - year government bonds was around 1.7% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The average daily trading volume (MA5) decreased to around 2 trillion yuan. Liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. For example, 1.57 million new accounts were opened in January, and 2.86 million in February [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For major stock indices, the valuation quantiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [36]. - The stock - bond cost - performance ratios and their quantiles of major stock indices such as SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 were also presented, providing a reference for investment decisions [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 index, the weights of banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the SSE 300 index, the weights were more dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3% and a CPI increase target of around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were implemented, with a planned deficit rate of around 4% and the issuance of 1.8 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund interest rate was lowered by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were promoted [51][52]. - US Federal Reserve policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's implementation of "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered by imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, Sino-US frictions deepen, affecting the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, and still has upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflow, and bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - Future index performance depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the index can maintain relative strength [9]. - It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market falling significantly. For example, the ChiNext Index dropped 5.71% and the STAR 50 Index dropped 6.16%. The performance of global indices also varied, with the Nasdaq rising 2.14% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling 7.98% [12][17]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, the trends were differentiated. A few sectors such as coal, banks, and food and beverages rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications fell significantly [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds pushed up M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. By the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [15][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.0% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets decreased to around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened was 1.57 million, 2.86 million, 3.06 million, 1.02 million, 1.555 million, 1.6464 million, 1.9636 million, and 2.6503 million respectively [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.51, with a percentile of 82.67, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.95, with a percentile of 83.75 [36]. - The stock - bond ratio and its percentile of major stock indices were also presented, which can be used to evaluate the investment value of stocks relative to bonds [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverages were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and proposed a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were proposed [51][52]. - US Fed policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered with additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

Report Title - "PP Weekly Report 20251012: Supply and Demand Pressure and Cost End Collapse, Polyolefin Prices Decline" [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. PP is in a production capacity release cycle, with new devices being put into operation one after another, and the existing production load is also high, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to digest the high production volume. Under the situation of supply-demand surplus, the price center of PP may continue to move downward [6]. - After the holiday, the PP price gapped down, and the bearish sentiment was further strengthened compared to before the holiday. On one hand, it was due to cost factors, such as the decline in Saudi Arabia's October CP and OPEC's announcement of continued production increase in November, which led to a decline in the cost of crude oil and PS. On the other hand, the fundamental situation remained weak, with a significant accumulation of inventory after the holiday. The demand in the peak season was limited, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor. Additionally, there was a political risk on Friday, as Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, and tariffs were re - imposed, causing a sharp decline in the price of crude oil in the commodity market and further pressuring the polyolefin price [9]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with high inventory and worried about PP price decline, they can short futures contracts on the disk for the PP to be sold to prevent price decline risks (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options on the disk (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Procurement Management for Traders - To build inventory and seek to buy PP at a low price, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs and prevent price increases (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%) [4]. Procurement and Inventory Management for Terminal Customers - When in need of PP raw materials and worried about price increases, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%); when having raw material inventory and worried about price declines, they can short futures contracts on the disk in proportion (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Market Data Analysis Supply - Domestic production: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10]. - Imports and exports: According to customs data, in August, the PP import volume was 24.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54%, and the export volume was 27.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.67%. China's net PP import was - 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 233.72%. The export volume exceeded the import volume again [10]. Demand - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, supported by the increased demand for fertilizer packaging in agriculture and the resumption of construction in industries such as construction and infrastructure. After the holiday, the demand cooled down, and the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable. The consumption in the automotive and home appliance industries was strong, and with the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38%. Although there is still room for improvement in the traditional peak season, the overall performance is relatively weak and unable to digest the high supply volume [10]. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, including an accumulation of 4.5 million tons in the inventory of two major oil companies, 7.07 million tons in coal - chemical industry inventory, 0.83 million tons in PBI inventory, and 3.71 million tons in local refinery inventory. During the holiday, upstream trading stagnated, and the inventory accumulated seasonally with a considerable increase, putting significant pressure on the upstream [10][206]. - The inventory of traders increased by 7.39 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons, with an increase in the proportion of foreign resources in the domestic market [209]. Cost - During the holiday, the crude oil price rebounded after a decline and then fell again this week, especially dropping to around $62 per barrel on Friday. The main reasons for the decline during the holiday were OPEC+'s plan to increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November and the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical concerns. On Friday, Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, reigniting tariff risks and causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, the profit of oil - based PP has remained at a relatively good level in recent years [10][64]. - The LPG price continued to decline, and the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month [11][64]. - After the holiday, the downstream demand for thermal coal was poor, and procurement slowed down. There is a certain downward space for coal prices, and the CT0 profit remained high. Due to the tight supply - demand situation, the price of methanol at the production area was firm, and the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [11][64]. Market Structure Analysis Basis and Spread - Basis: The spot price of plastic standard products also declined, with certain shipment pressure. The basis strengthened slightly compared to before the holiday. The basis in East China strengthened by 30 to around - 100 yuan per ton, the basis in North China strengthened by 50 to around - 130 yuan per ton, and the basis in South China strengthened by 40 to around - 100 yuan per ton [19]. - Non - standard basis: The trend of non - standard basis was stronger than that of standard products [19]. - Regional spread: The North China - East China spread remained at a medium level, and the South China - East China spread further weakened [31]. - Related product spread: The injection molding - drawing spread was at a low level, and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread strengthened [32]. - Disk spread: The 1 - 5 month spread remained at around - 40. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread was relatively stable. Overall, the supply pressure of PP was greater, while there were more maintenance activities for L and the demand for agricultural films started, and the demand recovery of PP was relatively slow, so the L - PP spread gradually repaired upwards. After the holiday, the price of PP dropped more due to the pressure on the cost side of PG, further strengthening the spread [50]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - Production profit: The profit of oil - based PP remained at a relatively good level in recent years; the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month; the profit of CT0 remained high, while the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - Domestic output and load: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10][105]. - Scheduling ratio: The increase in the scheduling ratio of drawing may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [114]. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - US dollar price: The prices in Northwestern Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak, with oversupply and weak demand in the Far East of CRB, and low prices in Southeast Asia due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - cost domestic goods; the supply - demand situation in South Asia is also poor [126]. - Import - export profit: The domestic market is in weak consolidation. Production enterprises' export offers remain stable, but overseas inquiries are few, and the transaction volume is limited. In terms of imports, China's prices are at the "global low point," and it is difficult to open import arbitrage opportunities [144]. Downstream Operating Rate - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, while the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable, and the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38% [10][147]. Position, Trading Volume and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The position volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 658,901, 549,555, and 700,000 respectively [223][224][227]. - The trading volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 1,500,000, 927,840, and 2,781,596 respectively [228][237][235]. - The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on October 10, 2025, was 17,191 [241].