【宏观国债月报20250803】年中经济再度放缓，政策发力价格回 t 日期: 2025-08-03 【宏观国债月报20250803】年中经济再度放缓，政策发力价格回升 【经济情况:6月数据回落】 6月消费投资等经济数据出现不同程度回落,经济整体增速边际放缓但结构持续优化,下半年在政策带动下或继续稳中有进。 【宏观政策:政治局会议定调积级,反内卷政策持续发力】 会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性。增强灵活性预见性"。反内卷政策中服除"低价元序竞争"中的"低价"表达，转向依法治理无序 【结论】 7月外部环境风高浪急，国内反内卷政策发力，价格指数出现回升,经济整体预期稳中向好,但海外冲击仍将持续。 【关注数据】 9月美联储议息会议,以及国内经济数据 国债期货观点策略 | 2025-08-03 核心观点 | 2025-08-03 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | * 合约: T2509 ▼ 观点： 国债10年期 区间意荡, 区间为[106,109] | * 观点： 国债2年期 区间震荡，区间为[102,103] * 合约: TS2509 | | ® 逻辑： 1、流动性环境略有改善，持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA (TA509), it is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - side second - quarter centralized maintenance has ended, downstream polyester is weakening in the off - season, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. In the third quarter, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and PTA should be short - positioned in the medium - and long - term [1]. - For p - xylene (PX509), it is also in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. After the third - quarter centralized maintenance ends, the supply - side load recovers, downstream polyester starts to weaken in the off - season, and factors like tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. The subsequent price center is likely to weaken, and it can be short - tested in the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply**: PX and PTA device maintenance plans are few in the third quarter. PE and PTA loads are at a moderately high level, and new devices are put into production smoothly. Supply will be sufficient in the second half of the year [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester starts at around 88% recently, with inventory at a moderately high level after restocking, but profit is weak. Terminal data is average, and the demand in the peak season this year may not be too optimistic [12]. - **Spot**: PTA spot basis is weak, with the spot premium over the 09 - contract at about 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Valuation**: Recent valuation changes are small, currently oscillating around 200 US dollars/ton in 2018, and the spot processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton. The industrial chain valuation is neutral, and whether it can be maintained depends on the polyester's start - up rate on the demand side [12]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Against the background of relatively cheap crude oil on the cost side, PTA is considered bearish in the medium - and long - term. Near the peak season, the peak - season expectation may bring a rebound. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly, but in the medium - and long - term, it should be treated bearishly, and it is suitable to hold PTA as a short - position in energy - chemical or commodity portfolios [12]. 3.2 Market Review: July Market Trends - PTA prices oscillated in July, with the price center slightly rising following the cost - side crude oil. From the supply - demand perspective, there were no significant highlights in July, with weak off - season demand and compressed overall valuation. Affected by strong commodity macro - sentiment and rising crude oil prices, it showed an oscillating upward trend with small self - fluctuations [18]. 3.3 PX Fundamental Analysis - **Device Changes**: The Xianglongdao project had no progress in the first half of the year. Recently, the device is in line with expectations, and the PX load has been rising in the third quarter, returning to the normal level range of previous years. The market trading focus has shifted to the impact of domestic macro - policies on commodities, and the supply - demand may be balanced in the third quarter [28]. - **Profit**: The PX processing fee is around 260 US dollars/ton recently, remaining at a high level this year. If the supply - demand remains balanced, PXN may oscillate in this range, and attention should be paid to whether demand can effectively support it [43]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up Rate**: The effective start - up rate is 80%. Recently, multiple devices have been overhauled as planned, and the PTA load is at a normal level. There are few overhaul plans in the third quarter, and the impact of new device production on this year's supply - demand pattern may be limited [61]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, which is currently in a neutral position. As supply recovers, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee is compressed [62]. 3.5 Polyester Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: Polyester starts at 88%. Due to inventory pressure in the off - season, polyester factories have cut production. As the off - season ends, attention should be paid to the inventory performance before the Peak Season. Whether the demand can return to a high load in the peak season may be the core factor for the industrial chain's valuation [69]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester bottle chips has been at the bottom of the historical level, resulting in low start - up rates and possible post - ponement of new device production. Most polyester varieties have poor profits due to strong raw material prices [72]. - **Inventory**: After terminal restocking, the polyester burden has been digested to some extent. Currently, terminal demand confidence is insufficient, and short - term production and sales are difficult to maintain. Polyester is likely to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, which will greatly affect the expectation of peak - season load [87]. 3.6 Terminal Weaving Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: The weaving start - up rate is 58%. The terminal situation is average in terms of order index, start - up, and inventory data. Domestic macro - policies have led to strong raw material prices, which may further compress terminal demand expectations. Although the peak season is approaching, the overall situation may not be very optimistic [93]. - **Export**: The export data of clothing and textile products shows certain fluctuations, and the trade situation is affected by various factors such as tariffs [102][110]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX**: The supply - demand is basically balanced in the third quarter, with production, import, and consumption showing certain trends and year - on - year changes [121]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is also analyzed in the balance sheet, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes, etc. Production is estimated based on device overhauls and new device commissions, and import and export are inferred according to trade contracts and price differences [121]. 3.8 Basis and Spread Analysis - **PX**: The basis and spread of the PX09 contract show certain trends, which can provide arbitrage opportunities and reflect market supply - demand and price relationships [125]. - **PTA**: The basis and spread of PTA contracts (such as TA01, TA09, etc.) also show different trends, having an impact on trading strategies and market expectations [126][135]. 3.9 Position and Trading Volume Analysis - **PX**: The position and trading volume of the PX09 contract show certain changes, which can reflect market participation and trading sentiment [140]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume of the PTA09 contract also show corresponding trends, affecting price fluctuations and market supply - demand relationships [140].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upper - space of caustic soda is limited, and there is pressure at the 2800 price level. The recent supply - demand remains loose. With the return of previously overhauled devices, supply pressure persists, and downstream demand remains dull with no obvious positive factors. The market mainly weighs the possible negative feedback on the operating rate caused by the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the potential impact of domestic exports. Considering the approaching delivery of the near - end contract, the upper - space of the near - end is expected to be limited without obvious event shocks [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, domestic caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising from a low level and strengthening with fluctuations. Taking the main contract SE2509 as an example, it rebounded from the June low of 2207 yuan/ton to the intra - cycle high of 2757 yuan/ton, with a rise of 28.23%. The strong performance of caustic soda futures in the cycle was related to the near - end spot pattern and July policy expectations. The near - end spot strengthened as the previous pessimistic expectations were gradually corrected. The market's discussion on the comprehensive profit, inventory, and possible production cuts of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises heated up due to the rapid decline in the price of associated liquid chlorine. Upstream enterprises raised the price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream alumina enterprises also increased their procurement prices. In addition, the "anti - involution" series of policies in July boosted the commodity sentiment, and the caustic soda market showed an upward trend [15]. 2. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan are presented, with specific price data and trends shown in the figures [18][22]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices in regions like Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia are provided, along with their price trends [24]. - **99% flake caustic soda**: The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are given, and the price trends are also shown [25]. 3. Price Spreads - **Model price spreads**: The price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong, are analyzed, with specific data and trends presented [33]. - **Regional price spreads**: The price spreads of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda between different regions are studied, including the spreads between Zhejiang - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong, etc., and the corresponding data and trends are shown [33][34]. 4. Supply Side - **Overall supply situation**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production capacity in Southwest, South, and Northeast China is relatively low. In June, the domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.5122 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. In July, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6178 million tons, with an expected month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in July was 58.01%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% compared to June (83.01%) [50]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented, along with their trends [51]. - **Overhaul situation**: A list of chlor - alkali device overhauls is provided, including long - term shutdown capacities and overhauls in July. Some enterprises have completed overhauls and resumed production, while others have planned overhauls in August and September [57]. - **Flake caustic soda device operation**: The operating conditions of flake caustic soda devices of various manufacturers are described, including overhauls, normal operations, and planned overhauls [61]. 5. Import and Export - In June 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 48,011 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 113.00%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 181,468 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.03%. Exports of liquid caustic soda were 291,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.31% and a month - on - month increase of 13.70%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.7255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. Imports of solid caustic soda were 862.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.67%. Exports of solid caustic soda were 59,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 79.32% and a year - on - year increase of 79.82% [65][68]. 6. Demand Side - **Alumina demand**: In July, the operating capacity of alumina enterprises was at a relatively high level. Although the supply - demand fundamentals had a certain negative impact on prices, the procurement demand from some downstream enterprises in the southern region and the short - term overhauls of some calcination devices in some enterprises led to a tight supply of spot goods in some areas, driving up the alumina price. The alumina market was also affected by macro - policies, but the actual impact on existing capacities was limited [73]. - **Viscose staple fiber demand**: In July, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was stable with fluctuations. The average monthly price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, a decline of 0.63%. The cost side weakened as the prices of raw materials decreased. The industry's supply increased as some previously shut - down or reduced - production devices resumed production. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand increased slightly, resulting in more stable quotes from manufacturers and an increase in the number of signed contracts [74]. 7. Inventory - In July, the overall inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories maintained a high - level oscillation, while the inventory of flake caustic soda continued to decline. There were differences among different manufacturers in Shandong. Enterprises with low inventory pressure had a strong willingness to raise prices, while those with moderate inventory adjusted prices according to market conditions. As of August 1, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 266,300 tons, basically unchanged compared to June 27, 2025 (266,600 tons). The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 19,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.49% compared to May 2, 2025 [97]. 8. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires 1.51 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12% - 18% of the total cost, and the power consumption per ton is about 2300 - 2400 kWh, accounting for about 60% of the total cost. In July, the cost side weakened, while the spot price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali showed a recovery [103]. 9. Chlorine - consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the PVC benchmark spot price, PVC powder weekly operating rate, and the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method in the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also shows the production capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as epoxy propane, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [115]. 10. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides data on the total production, cumulative production, export volume, net export volume, cumulative net export volume, apparent consumption, cumulative apparent consumption, consumption, cumulative consumption, and inventory changes of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, along with their year - on - year growth rates [142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic "anti - involution" policies have entered the implementation stage. Multiple industries and departments have taken actions, and there may be more forceful policies in the future [3]. - China's economy in the first half of the year showed growth, with consumption supporting the growth. Overseas, the US economic situation has inflation, employment, and interest - rate - related changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first half of 2025, GDP was 66.00 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and Q2 increased by 5.2% [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: From January to June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year. In June, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [18]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, relevant real - estate data such as sales area and new - construction area had different trends [17][18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In the first half of the year, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, with private fixed - asset investment decreasing by 0.6%. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [18]. - **Demand**: The purchasing manager index (PMI) in June showed an upward trend, indicating improved market demand [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: Specific data on export and import amounts in June are presented in the report, with different trends in monthly and annual comparisons [34]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, and the employment situation in the US also had corresponding changes [6][36]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In June, the single - month new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [37]. - **Credit Data**: In June, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. Loans were divided into different sectors such as enterprises and residents [37]. - **Money Supply**: M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, ending four consecutive months of decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][47]. - **PPI**: In June, China's PPI's year - on - year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% [5][47]. 3.4 Overseas Economy - **US Economy**: In June, the US CPI and core CPI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the employment market remained strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July was almost zero, and the probability in September was about 75% [4][6][56]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Relevant data such as HICP, retail sales index, and PMI in the Eurozone are presented in the report [15][16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In July, the RMB exchange rate showed a two - way fluctuation pattern. Affected by the Fed's suspension of interest - rate hikes, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate fluctuated within a certain range [67]. - **Interest Rates**: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and bond yields are presented in the report, showing different trends [68][73][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the good rate of US soybeans is relatively good, and the phased weather risk is limited. The upward driving force of CBOT soybeans is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain an operating range of 1000 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the expected arrival and crushing of imported soybeans remain at a high level, the supply of soybean meal continues to recover, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. The basis of soybean meal spot is expected to be weak. From the cost side, the bottom space of CBOT soybeans is limited, and the import cost supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - In the short - term, affected by the decline in market sentiment and fundamental pressure, the futures market is expected to oscillate and correct. In the medium - to long - term, as the Sino - US relationship is undetermined, there are still concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and coupled with the seasonal recovery of downstream demand, the soybean meal futures market is expected to have an opportunity to strengthen. [3] 2.2. Rapeseed Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, and the phased international rapeseed price is supported. In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center of rapeseed meal. Domestically, the near - month inventory is still relatively sufficient, and the far - month supply is expected to gradually tighten. The downstream aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to increase, but the supply of soybeans arriving in the next two months is loose, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitute consumption of rapeseed meal. The demand boost is expected to be limited. [3] - Overall, due to limited policy and fundamental support, the price of rapeseed meal is expected to adjust weakly following soybean meal. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Data - DCE soybean meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 3059.00 this week, down 19 from last week, a decrease of 0.62%; the 05 contract closed at 2759.00, up 15 from last week, an increase of 0.55%; the 09 contract closed at 3021.00, down 35 from last week, a decrease of 1.15%. [12] - CZCE rapeseed meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 2405.00 this week, up 11 from last week, an increase of 0.46%; the 05 contract closed at 2373.00, up 21 from last week, an increase of 0.89%; the 09 contract closed at 2675.00, down 47 from last week, a decrease of 1.73%. [12] 3.2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The excellent - good rate of US soybean production areas decreased slightly, and CBOT soybeans mainly oscillated. The US has reached trade agreements with Indonesia and Japan recently, and the market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations at the end of July. [16][17] - As of July 20, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. As of the same week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 20%. [17] - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.20 US dollars per bushel, a week - on - week decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.91%. [18] - As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. [17] - As of July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 39.97 tons. [18] 3.3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The short - term Brazilian soybean premium continued to be strong, and the procurement for shipments after October was limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US trade policy changes. [29] - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 70%. In Argentina, the soybean export tariff was restored in July, and farmers' sales enthusiasm declined. [30] - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons, and soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons. [30] 3.4. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybeans was 286,869, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybean meal was 179,629. [55][57] 3.5. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - Canada raised the output of old crops, and the output of new crops decreased slightly. The EU's yield per unit area is expected to be good. [59] - In the July USDA report, the global rapeseed output in the 2024/25 season was slightly increased by 165,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 2.31 million tons year - on - year to 9.09 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 10.39%. [60] - As of July 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 151.12% week - on - week to 202,400 tons. As of the same date, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons. [61] 3.6. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The recent arrival and crushing of domestic soybeans remain at a relatively high level, the supply pattern of soybean meal continues to be loose, and the spot basis is expected to run weakly. [71] - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6544 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons, an increase of 10.35%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 889,000 tons, an increase of 1.83%. [73] - As of July 18, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 15.72%. [91] - As of July 18, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons, a decrease of 2.32%; the soybean meal inventory was 998,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons, an increase of 12.66%. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. [103] - As of the week of July 23, the national soybean meal trading volume was 728,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,300 tons; the total提货 volume was 936,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons. [106]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [5500] price level [3]. - The supply of PVC shows a weakening trend, with high production maintained. Domestic and export demand is declining, and social inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. Although the current profit performance reflects a weak reality, under the policy expectations of capacity structure optimization, there is an increase in black and building material varieties. Attention should be paid to whether the rising coal price can repair the profits of the coal - based cost industry chain [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tightened supply at the calcium carbide/PVC end. The recent sharp rise in coal prices may strongly support costs, and attention should be paid to the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal prices to calcium carbide [9]. - **Demand - Inventory**: On July 25, the domestic PVC supply - side开工率 increased, enterprises received good orders, and market arrivals were normal. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, mainly from hedgers. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total inventory in the East and South China sample warehouses was 402,900 tons, up 3.65% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand - Calcium Carbide**: This week, the calcium carbide price slightly declined. The average calcium carbide industry开工率 rose to 72.20%, up 0.9% from the previous week. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia and the summer electricity peak. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [11][75]. - **Demand - Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises are operating normally with sufficient supply. Some areas are supported by plant maintenance. In terms of downstream demand, the alumina industry provides rigid support, but non - aluminum industries perform averagely. Some enterprises face certain sales pressure, so the price has no strong upward driving force [12]. - **Demand - Production Capacity**: In the first quarter of 2025, 500,000 tons of production capacity were put into operation. 900,000 tons of production capacity are expected to be put into operation from July to August, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of 6.37% [13]. - **Demand - Export**: This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year. Exports to India are expected to slow down in summer [14]. 3.2 Disk Data - This week, both PVC futures and spot prices rose. The basis discount to the disk increased, with the East China 09 basis weakening to around - 220. The 9 - 1 spread changed little, around - 113. The 09 contract position was around 860,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 56,400 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East and South China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 33, and the spread between East and North China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 223 [34]. - **Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread weakened to - 3 [34]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium Carbide - Based Profit**: The current calcium carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. In areas with limited cost fluctuations and a significant increase in PVC spot prices, profits in various regions have improved significantly. North China has achieved profitability. Northwest integrated enterprises' comprehensive profit has expanded to around 680 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide in the Northwest is around 1,000 yuan/ton. Shandong's chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has turned from loss to profit at around 100 yuan/ton [45]. - **Ethylene - Based Profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5%. The profit of purchasing vinyl chloride is around the break - even point, and the profit of purchasing ethylene is a loss of 200 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Related Products - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Lanthanum Coke**: On July 25, the price of lanthanum coke remained stable. The average transaction price in the Shaanxi market was 580 - 630 yuan/ton. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 39.14%, unchanged from the previous week. In the future, the开工 rate may increase, and attention should be paid to the transmission of coal prices to lanthanum coke and calcium carbide prices [69]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Calcium Carbide**: On July 25, the calcium carbide price declined slightly. The average industry开工率 rose to 72.20%. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [75]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Caustic Soda**: On July 25, the spot price of liquid caustic soda fluctuated slightly. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 84%, up 1.4% from the previous week, and the inventory was 408,400 tons, up 6.38% from the previous week. In the future, the supply is sufficient, and the price has no strong upward driving force [81]. 3.6 Supply - **Production Capacity Progress**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Two ethylene - based plants of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development started trial production in July and are expected to achieve mass production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into operation in the third quarter [85]. - **开工率 and Maintenance**: On July 25, the overall开工率 of PVC powder was 75.81%, up 0.84% from the previous week. There were new maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously maintained enterprises resumed production. The theoretical loss due to parking and maintenance this week was 71,640 tons, down 279 tons from the previous week [87]. 3.7 Import - Export - **Import**: In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.80%. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence is about 1% [116]. - **Export**: In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.61%. The cumulative export from January to June was 1,960,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.20%. The main destination is India. This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year [116][125]. 3.8 Demand - **Downstream开工率**: Currently, the downstream开工率 is at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the开工 rates of the profile and film industries improved, while the pipe industry continued to decline. Domestic downstream product enterprises continued to purchase at low prices, resisted high - priced raw materials, and faced seasonal weakening due to high temperatures [137]. - **Terminal - Real Estate**: From January to June, real estate investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 3.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and PVC demand may continue to shrink [154]. 3.9 Inventory - **Production Enterprises**: As of July 24, the available inventory of PVC powder in sample production enterprises was - 467,150 tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory was 312,250 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons from the previous period [169]. - **East and South China**: As of July 24, the original sample inventory in East China was 358,900 tons, up 3.97% from the previous period and down 29.50% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 587,200 tons, up 3.82% from the previous period and down 30.64% year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 44,000 tons, up 1.15% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [169].

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The urea contract UR509 is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, supported at the 1700 price level [3]. - The domestic urea supply remains high, and the pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand has weakened compared with the previous period. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the industrial compound fertilizer demand is at a low level. The export policy is gradually being implemented, and attention should be paid to the specific export volume later [3][7][8]. - The futures price of urea followed the general upward trend of bulk commodities due to the policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity" but may decline as speculative funds leave the market. Overall, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit suppression and lower - limit support and is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - Cost: Coal prices are weakly operating, and coal - based urea production costs are low. The profit of coal - based urea has slightly increased. The natural gas price in the southwest region is stable, and the profit of gas - based urea is stable [7]. - Supply: Although the number of domestic overhaul devices has increased, it has little impact on the supply pattern. The domestic production volume remains high year - on - year, and the supply is generally loose [7]. - Demand: In the agricultural sector, the fertilizer return in the north is basically over, and there is still some demand for top - dressing rice in the south. The overall support is weak as the demand enters the traditional off - season. In the industrial sector, the pre - sale of compound fertilizers is progressing slowly, and downstream procurement is cautious. In the export sector, the news of the second batch of export quotas has basically landed, with an expected quota of 100 - 150 tons, slightly lower than market expectations, and the first - batch export quota is being exported in an orderly manner [7]. 3.2 Price, Spread, and Profit - Spot Price: The urea spot market fluctuated upward this week, with the average price in mainstream regions rising by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Affected by the macro - policy, the price increased, but the upward momentum was insufficient due to weak domestic demand and slow progress of the second - batch export quota [15][26]. - Regional Spread: The regional spreads this week were within the normal range [37]. - Spot Profit: The coal - based urea profit increased slightly this week due to the slight increase in the ex - factory price of urea. The gas - based urea profit remained stable because the natural gas price was stable [50]. - Overseas Price and Spread: India's IPL issued a tender to purchase 200,000 tons of urea, which stabilized the weak market. Before the Indian tender, the demand in many key markets was tepid [66]. - Basis and Calendar Spread: The 9 - 1 spread weakened by 29 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The basis continued to weaken as both the spot and futures prices declined this week. For example, the basis of the 09 contract in Henan weakened by 18 yuan/ton compared with last week [72]. 3.3 Supply - Output and Operation - Output and Operation Rate (Longzhong): The daily output of urea on July 25, 2025, was 209,040 tons. The weekly output on July 24 was 135.47 tons, a decrease of 1.40 tons from last week. The operation rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from last week, with coal - based urea at 85.78% and gas - based urea at 76.50% [84][94]. - Output and Operation Rate (Baichuan): The weekly output of urea was 135.98 tons, a decrease of 2.50 tons from the previous period. The operation rate was 83.09%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous period, with coal - based urea at 83.36% and gas - based urea at 82.20% [95]. - Device Overhaul: The theoretical output loss due to urea device overhauls this week was 17.82 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons from last week [101]. 3.4 Demand - Agricultural Fertilization: No specific demand - related content was provided, only the crop development periods were given [109][112][113]. - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer market fluctuated slightly this week, with the price in some areas rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The operation rate increased by 1.03% to 33.58%, and the inventory increased by 0.63 tons to 74.21 tons [117]. - Melamine: The weekly output of melamine on July 24 was 37,603 tons, and the operation rate was 65.20%, an increase of 0.96% from last week. The market was operating weakly, with weak supply - demand fundamentals and no strong positive factors [126][127]. 3.5 Inventory - Longzhong Caliber: The enterprise inventory this week was 112.78 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons from last week. The port inventory was 41.9 tons, an increase of 2.1 tons from last week [138]. - Baichuan Caliber: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory data are provided in tons, but specific changes compared with the previous period are not clearly described [142][145][147]. - Regional Inventory: The inventory data of different regions such as the northwest, south - central, southwest, northeast, north, and central China are provided, but specific changes are not clearly described [150][152][156][157][162].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index has a clear bottom line, and the trading volume in the two markets has increased, driving the index to fluctuate upwards. The "anti-involution" policy has led to a full recovery of theme stocks. The 1.2 trillion hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo River has directly promoted the entire infrastructure industry chain such as water conservancy and building materials to strengthen. The market shows the characteristic of "blue-chip stocks setting the stage, and theme stocks performing". Futures index should be intervened after a pullback [3]. - Although the international situation is complex, the current market expectations are sufficient, and the disturbances caused by Sino-US and Iran-Israel issues are limited. The US has lifted the restrictions on H20 chips. The external influence is mainly the Fed's interest rate decision. A rate cut is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB, the return of foreign capital, and the inflow of new incremental funds, which may start as early as September. Currently, policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of the stock index is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the economic expectation to stabilize and recover. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium and long-term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. A breakthrough must be accompanied by an increase in trading volume. This week, the trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.5 trillion (MA5), and the index still has upward momentum [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to strengthen. As of July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73, up 2.02% for the week and 7.58% year-to-date; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11193.06, up 2.56% for the week and 7.47% year-to-date; the ChiNext Index closed at 2345.37, up 3.00% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index closed at 1032.84, up 2.51% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.44, up 1.73% for the week and 4.76% year-to-date; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4149.04, up 2.23% for the week and 5.44% year-to-date; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6293.60, up 3.18% for the week and 9.92% year-to-date; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6701.12, up 2.27% for the week and 12.48% year-to-date [13]. - Among the global indices, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.00%, and the Biotechnology Index rose 3.68%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 first-level Shenwan industry indices rose this week. Sectors such as building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals rose significantly, while a few sectors such as banks and communications fell [16]. Liquidity - In June, the total social financing exceeded expectations, and the growth rate reached a new high, rising to 4.6% (a month-on-month increase of 2.3 pct), the highest growth rate since 2023, indicating a significant improvement in corporate liquidity [14][15]. - The capital interest rate (the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the interbank market, DR007) remained at a low level. In May, the net MLF injection was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond was around 1.65%. In June, the total social financing rebounded strongly, mainly driven by policies, and the endogenous driving force still needs to be consolidated. The new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.9% (a month-on-month increase of 0.2 pct), reaching a new high this year. Government bonds increased by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year (contributing 58% of the social financing increment), reflecting an accelerated pace of fiscal efforts, with special bonds and special-purpose bonds advancing simultaneously. New RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, and short-term corporate loans became the main driving force. The growth rate of M2 rebounded, and M1 improved significantly. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4 pct), mainly driven by the low-base effect (deposit diversion caused by manual interest compensation supervision in the same period in 2024) and an increase in corporate deposits [17]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume increased, and the stock index continued to fluctuate strongly. The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, and in June slightly increased to 1.6464 million. On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3600 points during intraday trading, the second-highest point since October 2024. The trading volume in the two markets (MA5) exceeded 1.5 trillion, and the index showed strong momentum, with prominent structural market conditions [26]. Index Valuation - As of July 24, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.64, with a percentile of 73.34; the latest PE of the entire market was 20.81, with a percentile of 78.73. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50. Note: The starting time of the valuation percentile is January 1, 2009 [34]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non-bank finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 11.18%, and 8.31% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth-largest weighted industry [43]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banks, non-bank finance, and electronics [43]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance [48]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The SR509 contract of sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, and there is support at the price of 5600. In the long - term, the global sugar supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the SR2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range. Follow - up data such as UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Supply - **Brazil Production**: - The 2024/25 Brazilian sugar production was 4017 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to the previous season, with a decline of 5.3%. As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25%. The precipitation in the first half of June was relatively high, affecting the crushing progress. The sugar - to - cane ratio continued to rise, offsetting the impact of the decline in crushing volume and sugar content. The recent precipitation will affect the raw sugar price. The 2025/26 production is expected to increase, with an estimated output of about 4200 tons [44][45][46]. - As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative cane input in the central - southern region was 20619.8 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.00%. The cumulative sugar - to - cane ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25% [53]. - As of July 11, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.38%, and ethanol had an advantage in sales. The ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.78 cents per pound, and the ICE raw sugar settlement price was 16.56 cents per pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.78 cents per pound over the ethanol - converted sugar price, which continued to decline compared to the previous week [68]. - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of July were 136.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.88 tons, a decline of 21.66%. As of the week of July 9, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 368.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.96 tons, an increase of 1.96% [87]. - As of June 30, Brazil's sugar inventory was 401.6657 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years, but the subsequent inventory accumulation pattern was obvious [84]. - **India and Thailand Production**: - India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is estimated to be about 2610 - 2620 tons. The end - of - year inventory is expected to be 520 - 530 tons, ensuring a balance between supply and demand. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, with an estimated output of about 3500 tons [86]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1004.18 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous year. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to continue to increase slightly, with MitrPhol Group estimating 1150 tons and USDA estimating 1026 tons [93]. - **Global Production**: - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season was still in a loose pattern but tightened marginally compared to the previous period. In the 2025/26 season, the supply is expected to turn loose. Some institutions predict a supply surplus, such as Czarnikow predicting a 750 - ton surplus, Datagro predicting a 153 - ton surplus, and Green Pool predicting a 115 - ton surplus [96][97]. Domestic Supply - **Production**: - The 2024/25 domestic sugar - making season ended on May 23. The total sugar production in the season was 1116.21 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.89 tons, an increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152.1 tons, an increase of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [108][113]. - In Guangxi, the 2024/25 sugar production was 646.50 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 tons. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 tons, and the sales rate was 79.51%, 6.29 percentage points higher than the same period last year [113]. - **Import**: - The in - quota import volume is 194.5 tons per year, with a 15% tariff, and the out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, the imported sugar was 42 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 106 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25 tons. From the beginning of the 2024/25 season to the end of June, the cumulative imported sugar was 251 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65 tons. The out - of - quota import profit window opened earlier, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter [128]. - Since 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder has been restricted. In May 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder (tax number 1702.90, 2106.906) was 6.43 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 tons. The import of goods under 170290 remained at a low level, while the import of goods under 2106906 increased significantly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [143]. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: - The peak demand seasons for sugar are the summer cold - drink and ice - cream consumption season and the Spring Festival stocking season. After the Spring Festival, the consumption is in the off - season, but the sugar sales data from February to April were higher than in previous years, mainly due to the transfer of some sugar factory inventories to third - party inventories. As of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.68%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a 6.29 - percentage - point increase in the sales rate compared to the same period last year [150]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 2025, the national industrial inventory was 304.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.21 tons. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the industrial inventory was 132.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 tons [153].