Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ASMPT (00522), highlighting strong AI demand and a recovery in mainstream business and SMT, with expectations for accelerated shipments in Q4 2025 and 2026, despite one-time costs from restructuring [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2.03 billion, HKD 13.51 billion, and HKD 19.35 billion, reflecting changes of -66%, +42%, and +41% respectively compared to previous estimates [1] - Year-on-year changes are projected at -41.2%, +565.2%, and +43.2% for the respective years [1] Group 2: Business Developments - The company is deepening its focus on TCB and HB, with expectations for accelerated shipments in Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] - In TCB, the company has validated HBM4 with major clients, anticipating orders from leading wafer foundry customers and preparing for mass production [1] - In the storage sector, the company has secured multiple orders for HBM4-12H, with one being a primary supplier [1] - The company continues to deliver HB in Q3, with several projects at different evaluation stages [1] Group 3: Restructuring Impact - The voluntary liquidation of the Shenzhen subsidiary AEC resulted in a short-term loss for the company, but is expected to improve long-term profitability [2] - The restructuring and inventory write-off in Q3 incurred costs of HKD 3.55 billion, but is projected to enhance gross margins and save HKD 1.28 billion annually [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that ASMPT (00522) maintains a "Buy" rating due to strong AI demand, recovery in mainstream business and SMT, and expected acceleration in TCB shipments in Q4 2025 and 2026, despite one-time costs from restructuring [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2.03 billion, HKD 13.51 billion, and HKD 19.35 billion, reflecting changes of -66%, +42%, and +41% respectively compared to previous estimates, with year-on-year changes of -41.2%, +565.2%, and +43.2% [1] - The report highlights that the company is making significant progress in TCB and HB equipment, with expectations for large-scale shipments to leading foundry customers, and the launch of HBM4 and 16-layer HBM is anticipated to further boost TCB demand, indicating a positive long-term outlook for advanced packaging business performance and valuation [1] Group 2 - The voluntary liquidation of the Shenzhen subsidiary AEC has led to a short-term loss for the company, but is expected to improve long-term profitability [2] - In Q3 2025, the company incurred restructuring and inventory write-off costs totaling HKD 3.55 billion due to the liquidation, but this is expected to enhance gross margin and save costs of HKD 1.28 billion annually post-completion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ASMPT (00522), highlighting strong AI demand and a recovery in mainstream business and SMT, with expectations for accelerated shipments in TCB by Q4 2025 and in 2026, despite one-time costs from restructuring [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2.03 billion, HKD 13.51 billion, and HKD 19.35 billion, reflecting changes of -66%, +42%, and +41% respectively compared to previous estimates [1] - Year-on-year changes in net profit are projected at -41.2% for 2025, +565.2% for 2026, and +43.2% for 2027 [1] Group 2: Business Developments - The company is deepening its focus on TCB and HB, with expectations for accelerated shipments in Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] - In TCB, the company has validated HBM4 with key customers in the logic sector, anticipating orders from leading foundry clients starting in Q4 2025 [1] - In the storage sector, the company has secured multiple orders for HBM4-12H, with one major client as a primary supplier [1] - The company is also progressing in HB, with ongoing deliveries and multiple projects at different evaluation stages [1] Group 3: Restructuring Impact - The voluntary liquidation of the Shenzhen subsidiary AEC resulted in a short-term loss for the company, but is expected to improve long-term profitability [2] - The restructuring and inventory write-off in Q3 incurred costs of HKD 3.55 billion, but is projected to enhance gross margins and save HKD 1.28 billion annually [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT reported a significant decline in stock price following the release of its Q3 2025 financial results, indicating challenges despite revenue growth [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved sales revenue of HKD 3.66 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Total new orders amounted to HKD 3.621 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [1] - The company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 268.6 million, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] Loss Drivers - The net loss of HKD 269 million was primarily due to restructuring costs and inventory write-offs associated with the voluntary liquidation of its subsidiary, Advanced Semiconductor Equipment (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. (AEC), which incurred expenses of HKD 371 million [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q4 sales revenue to be between USD 470 million and USD 530 million, with a median estimate indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.8% and a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - Huatai Securities expressed optimism regarding the company's Q4 revenue guidance and the ongoing advancement of advanced packaging products in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT reported a significant decline in stock price despite a year-on-year increase in sales revenue and new orders, primarily due to substantial losses attributed to restructuring costs from a subsidiary's voluntary liquidation [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved sales revenue of HKD 3.66 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Total new orders amounted to HKD 3.621 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - The company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 268.6 million, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] Loss Drivers - The net loss of HKD 269 million was primarily due to restructuring costs and inventory write-offs related to the voluntary liquidation of its subsidiary, Advanced Semiconductor Equipment (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. (AEC), with related expenses amounting to HKD 371 million [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q4 sales revenue to be between USD 470 million and USD 530 million, with a median estimate indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.8% and a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - Huatai Securities expressed optimism regarding the company's Q4 revenue guidance and the ongoing development of advanced packaging products in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ASMPT, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached USD 468 million (HKD 3.661 billion), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8%, aligning with previous guidance [1]. - The semiconductor solutions business generated revenue of HKD 1.88 billion (USD 240 million), up 5% year-over-year but down 7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by AI infrastructure demand and strong electric vehicle demand in China [1]. - The SMT business saw revenue of HKD 1.78 billion (USD 228 million), a 15% year-over-year increase and a 28% quarter-over-quarter increase, benefiting from AI server demand and smartphone orders [1]. - The overall new orders in Q3 amounted to USD 463 million, a 14% year-over-year increase but a 4% quarter-over-quarter decrease [1]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between USD 470 million and USD 530 million, with a midpoint indicating a 14% year-over-year increase and a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding market expectations [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 adjusted net profit was HKD 1.02 billion, a 245% increase year-over-year but a 24% decrease quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The adjusted gross margin for Q3 was 37.7%, down 330 basis points year-over-year and 203 basis points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a decline in semiconductor business margins [1]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2.03 billion, HKD 13.51 billion, and HKD 19.35 billion, reflecting significant changes in expectations [2]. Business Segments - The semiconductor solutions segment is expected to see a recovery in TCB shipments starting in Q4 2025 and into 2026, driven by demand from major clients [1]. - The SMT segment is showing a recovery trend, with new orders increasing significantly year-over-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its TCB and HBM capabilities, anticipating accelerated shipments in the upcoming quarters [1]. Market Outlook - The report highlights strong demand for AI infrastructure and electric vehicles as key growth drivers for the company's main business segments [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost savings following the voluntary liquidation of its Shenzhen subsidiary, which is projected to improve gross margins in the long term [1].

Summary of ASMPT (0522.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ASMPT (0522.HK) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Revenue**: HK$3.7 billion, representing an increase of +8% QoQ and +9% YoY, aligning with expectations [6][9] - **Gross Margin**: 35.7%, down from 39.7% in 2Q25 and 41.0% in 3Q24, lower than estimates of 40.9% and 40.1% [6][12] - **Operating Profit**: HK$50 million, a decrease of -72% YoY, impacted by restructuring costs [7][12] - **Net Loss**: -HK$270 million, significantly lower than expected net profits of HK$226 million and HK$201 million [12] - **Book-to-Bill Ratio**: 0.99 in 3Q25, down from 1.11 in 2Q25, indicating a decline in order intake [12] Revenue Guidance - **4Q25 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to be between US$470 million and US$530 million (HK$3.7 billion to HK$4.1 billion), implying a YoY growth of +8% to +21% [2] - **Management's Outlook**: Positive on TCB's market potential, driven by demand from the China market and AI-related sectors, though recovery in automotive and industrial segments remains uncertain [2] Segment Performance - **Semiconductor Solutions (Backend)**: Revenue decreased by -7% QoQ but increased by +5% YoY; bookings down -2% QoQ and -12% YoY due to an order cancellation [12] - **Surface Mount Technology (SMT)**: Revenue increased by +28% QoQ and +15% YoY; bookings decreased by -5% QoQ but increased by +52% YoY [12] Strategic Highlights - **Strength in TCB Tools**: Management noted success in securing orders for HBM4 12H TCB from multiple customers, indicating strong demand in advanced packaging tools [1] - **Mainstream Tools Demand**: Driven by AI, China EV, and China OSATs [1] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: 1. Variability in customer adoption of Advanced Packaging tools [11] 2. Fluctuating demand from automotive customers [11] 3. Demand for traditional IC packaging and SMT equipment [11] Valuation and Price Target - **Current Price**: HK$87.25 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$79.00, based on a P/E multiple of 19.5x for 2026E [10][13] - **Market Cap**: HK$36.0 billion [13] Conclusion - ASMPT's recent performance reflects challenges in gross margins and net profitability, while management remains optimistic about future growth driven by advanced packaging and AI-related demands. The company faces risks related to market demand fluctuations and customer adoption rates.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $468.0 million, an increase of 7.6% quarter-on-quarter and 9.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in SMT [9][10] - Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was 37.7%, lower than typical levels due to a larger contribution from SMT and lower SEMI gross margin [10][11] - Adjusted operating profit was $124.4 million HKD, down 26.6% quarter-on-quarter and 30.3% year-on-year [11] - Adjusted net profit was $101.9 million HKD, down 24.4% quarter-on-quarter but up 245.2% year-on-year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SEMI segment revenue was $240.5 million, down 6.5% quarter-on-quarter but up 5.0% year-on-year, with bookings of $207.8 million, down 1.7% quarter-on-quarter and 12.4% year-on-year [13][14] - SMT segment revenue was $227.5 million, up 28% quarter-on-quarter and 14.6% year-on-year, with bookings of $254.7 million, down 5% quarter-on-quarter but up 51.8% year-on-year [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in China driven by EVs and high factory utilization across all sectors [3] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $470 million and $530 million, indicating growth supported by momentum in both SEMI and SMT [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its leadership in advanced packaging, particularly in TCB for HBM4 and advanced logic, driven by AI infrastructure demand [3][17] - The strategic restructuring, including the liquidation of the Sun Churn AEC plan, is expected to improve cost competitiveness and agility in global manufacturing operations [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for TCB demand and noted that the AI ecosystem investments will drive future growth [17] - The company acknowledged uncertainties in the operating environment but emphasized its global presence to navigate potential impacts [17] Other Important Information - The company achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.04 for the quarter, maintaining a ratio above one since Q1 2025 [10] - The company experienced an isolated bookings cancellation in Q3 for panel deposition tools, which was a one-off occurrence [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: HBM4 transition and market share - Management confirmed they are leading the transition to HBM4 and have secured orders from two major HBM players, indicating a strong market position [20][23] Question: Impact of technology roadmaps on demand - Management noted that demand for TCB is driven by the timing of key customers' technology roadmaps, with expectations for growth in Q4 [25][26] Question: OpEx and future estimates - Management indicated that OpEx will remain similar to prior years with some marginal increases due to ongoing R&D investments [36][37] Question: TCB fluxless application timeline - Management expects significant ramp-up for fluxless TCB applications in 2026, with ongoing progress in logic applications [38][40] Question: Customer concentration for TCB equipment - Management confirmed a broadening of TCB customer base beyond leading foundries to include top AI customers [64] Question: Gross margin outlook for SEMI solutions - Management expects slight margin accretion for SEMI's margin in Q4, with long-term expectations for recovery to mid-40% levels [59][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $468.0 million for Q3 2025, an increase of 7.6% quarter-on-quarter and 9.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in SMT [9][10] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 was 37.7%, lower than typical levels due to a larger contribution from SMT and lower SEMI gross margin [10][11] - Adjusted net profit was HKD 101.9 million, down 24.4% quarter-on-quarter but up 245.2% year-on-year [11] - The group achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.04 for the quarter, maintaining a ratio above one since Q1 2025 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SEMI segment revenue was $240.5 million, down 6.5% quarter-on-quarter but up 5.0% year-on-year, driven by demand for wire bonders and die bonders [13] - SMT segment revenue was $227.5 million, up 28% quarter-on-quarter and 14.6% year-on-year, supported by AI servers and EV demand in China [15] - SEMI's adjusted gross margin was 41.3%, lower than normal due to a higher contribution from wire bonders and lower TCB revenue [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in China driven by EVs and high factory utilization across all sectors [3] - The group expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $470 million and $530 million, indicating growth supported by momentum in both SEMI and SMT [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its leadership in TCB technology, particularly in HBM4, and anticipates a total addressable market exceeding $1 billion by 2027 [17] - The strategic restructuring, including the voluntary liquidation of the Sun Churn AEC plan, is expected to enhance cost competitiveness and operational agility [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for TCB demand, citing a strong AI tailwind and ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [31] - The company acknowledged uncertainties in the automotive and industrial markets but noted a stable demand from China [17] Other Important Information - The company experienced an isolated booking cancellation in Q3 for panel deposition tools, which was a one-off occurrence [9][10] - The group closed the quarter with a backlog of $867.7 million [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: HBM4 Transition and Market Share - Management confirmed they are a primary supplier for the HBM4 market, having secured orders from two major HBM players [20][23] Question: Advanced Packaging Demand Pause - Management indicated that the pause in demand was due to the timing of key customers' technology roadmaps, with confidence in future orders aligning with new architecture launches [25][26] Question: Operating Expenses and Future Projections - Management stated that operating expenses would remain similar to prior years, with ongoing investments in R&D and infrastructure [36][37] Question: TCB Fluxless Application Timeline - Management expects significant ramp-up for fluxless TCB applications in 2026, as the industry moves towards higher stacking [38][40] Question: Customer Concentration and Future Opportunities - Management noted a broadening of TCB customer base beyond leading foundries, engaging with top AI customers globally [64] Question: Gross Margin Outlook for SEMI Solutions - Management anticipates slight margin accretion for SEMI in Q4, with expectations for gross margins to return to mid-40% levels in the long run [59][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $468.0 million USD for Q3 2025, an increase of 7.6% quarter-on-quarter and 9.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in SMT [9][10] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 was 37.7%, lower than typical levels due to a larger contribution from SMT and lower SEMI gross margin [10][11] - Adjusted net profit was $101.9 million HKD, down 24.4% quarter-on-quarter but up 245.2% year-on-year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - SEMI segment revenue was $240.5 million USD, down 6.5% quarter-on-quarter but up 5.0% year-on-year, driven by stronger demand for wire bonders and die bonders [12] - SMT segment revenue was $227.5 million USD, up 28% quarter-on-quarter and 14.6% year-on-year, supported by AI servers and EV demand in China [14][15] - SEMI's adjusted gross margin was 41.3%, lower than normal due to a higher contribution from wire bonders and lower TCB revenue [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in China driven by EVs and high factory utilization across all sectors [3] - The group closed the quarter with a backlog of $867.7 million USD, indicating strong future demand [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its leadership in TCB technology and expects the total addressable market for TCB to exceed $1 billion by 2027, driven by AI infrastructure investments [17] - The strategic restructuring, including the liquidation of the Sun Churn AEC plan, is expected to enhance cost competitiveness and operational agility [8] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for TCB demand and noted that the timing of key customers' technology roadmaps will influence order volumes [25][30] - The company acknowledged uncertainties in the automotive and industrial markets but remains optimistic about mainstream demand, particularly from China [17][49] Other Important Information - The company experienced an isolated booking cancellation in Q3 for panel deposition tools, which was a one-off occurrence [9][10] - The group achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.04 for the quarter, maintaining a ratio above one since Q1 2025 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: HBM4 Transition and Market Share - Management confirmed they are leading the transition to HBM4 and have secured orders from two major HBM players, indicating a strong market position [22][23] Question: Pause in Advanced Packaging and TCB - Management clarified that the observed pause in AP and TCB was driven by the timing of key customers' technology roadmaps, with expectations for growth in Q4 [24][25] Question: OpEx and AEC Liquidation Impact - Management indicated that the liquidation of AEC will primarily benefit COGS rather than OpEx, and OpEx is expected to remain similar to prior years due to ongoing R&D investments [35][36] Question: TCB Fluxless Application Timeline - Management anticipates a significant ramp-up in fluxless TCB applications for logic in 2026, with ongoing progress in the technology [37][39] Question: Customer Concentration and Future Opportunities - Management noted that TCB customer concentration has broadened beyond the top three memory makers, engaging with various AI customers globally [64][65] Question: Margin Outlook for SMT Solutions - Management explained that current SMT margins are influenced by market composition, with expectations for sustained low 30% margins unless market conditions change [69] Question: Total Addressable Market for TCB - Management projected that the total addressable market for TCB will be larger for HBM than for logic over time, with aspirations for a 35% to 40% market share [70][72]