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Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant volatility last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.26% at 4101.91 points, barely holding above the 4100-point mark [1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.2%, closing at 3361.02 points [1] - Total market turnover exceeded 30 trillion yuan, reaching 30,263 billion yuan, but nearly 3000 stocks declined, indicating clear market differentiation [1] Policy Signals - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to "firmly prevent large fluctuations in the market" during a meeting on January 15, 2026, and announced measures to combat market manipulation [3] - On January 18, the CSRC clarified its intention to guide long-term capital into the market and curb excessive speculation [3] - A significant reduction in the down payment ratio for commercial property loans was implemented over the weekend, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges conducted over 800 regulatory actions against abnormal trading [3] Capital Flow - On January 16, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 8.6 billion yuan, marking a new single-day high for 2026, with a focus on the semiconductor sector [3] - However, main capital has seen a net outflow for nine consecutive trading days, with over 40 billion yuan withdrawn on that day, particularly from high-position stocks in computing and media [3] - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio to 100% was officially implemented on January 19, which is expected to moderately suppress market leverage [3] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector surged by 4.26%, with significant inflows exceeding 23.7 billion yuan, driven by strong performance in storage chips and advanced packaging [4] - Conversely, the media sector dropped by 4.6%, with multiple stocks in AI applications and gaming hitting the daily limit down, while the computing sector saw a net outflow of 16.8 billion yuan [4] - The commercial aerospace sector faced negative sentiment due to news of satellite launch failures, potentially impacting related stocks [4] Investment Trends - Capital is increasingly flowing towards hard technology with industrial logic, while speculative high-position stocks are being sold off [5] - The semiconductor industry chain has become a recent market highlight, benefiting from the explosive demand for AI computing power and an upward cycle in global storage chip prices, with a projected 40% increase in storage chip prices in Q1 2026 [9] - Low-valuation financial and real estate sectors are seeing valuation recovery opportunities supported by policy changes, such as the reduction of the commercial property down payment ratio to 30% [10] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to exhibit three potential scenarios on Monday, depending on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can maintain the 4100-point level and the performance of the semiconductor sector [6][7] - If the index falls below the 4090-point support, further declines to around 4070 points may occur, necessitating caution regarding high-position stock corrections [7] - The central bank's structural interest rate cuts and the release of over 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term low-cost funds are aimed at providing liquidity support while curbing speculation [8] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is oscillating between 4091.81 and 4140.23 points, with the 4090-point level serving as a critical support area [3] - If this support is breached, the next strong support is around 4070 points, while resistance is found in the 4120-4130 point range [3] - The market's trading volume is crucial; maintaining around 30 trillion yuan indicates market activity, while a drop below 28 trillion yuan could signal a need for caution [8]

Market Overview - The market is currently in a stagnant state, with no significant upward or downward movement, resembling a bear market scenario [1] - The 5-minute structure of the market is clear, with a critical level at 4090.06; a breakthrough above 4150.17 is necessary to end the current downward structure [3] - The market is showing signs of being controlled, indicating that the current frustrating movements are unlikely to occur without external influence [3] Investment Strategy - The company has executed trades in specific stocks, including Zhonghang Jikong and Jiucai, while employing a strategy focused on selective buying [5] - The company emphasizes the importance of waiting for a clear market direction before making significant investments, advising investors to reduce positions during high points until a new trend emerges [7] - The company has identified several sectors with strong performance ratings, particularly the ultra-high voltage sector, while cautioning against potential declines in the non-ferrous sector [6] Stock Performance - The ultra-high voltage sector showed a notable increase of 4.38%, with a market capitalization of 350.15 billion [6] - The storage chip sector had a slight increase of 0.13%, with a market capitalization of 234.55 billion [6] - The chemical fiber sector experienced a rise of 3.96%, with a market capitalization of 254.35 billion [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The storage and advanced packaging industry is experiencing price increases, with companies like Powertech Technology, HwaCom Systems, and Nanya Technology operating at near full capacity, leading to price hikes of up to 30% expected by 2026, driven by rising raw material costs and client price increases [1][4][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Price Increase Potential**: Chinese mainland storage packaging companies such as Deep Technology's Peidun, HwaCom, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huada Semiconductor have the potential to raise prices, although market expectations are currently insufficient [1][5]. - **Investment in Advanced Packaging**: SK Hynix's investment of $12.9 billion in an advanced packaging facility indicates a shift in focus towards post-process advanced packaging to enhance customer loyalty and bargaining power [1][6]. - **TSMC's Capital Expenditure**: TSMC has revised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $52-56 billion, with about 10% allocated for advanced packaging, raising market interest in advanced technologies like CoWoS [1][7]. - **Micron's Acquisition**: Micron's $1.8 billion acquisition of Powertech's facility is expected to contribute to production by mid-2027, reflecting sustained high demand for storage [1][8]. Market Dynamics - **Global Market Share**: The two major players hold approximately 10% of the global market share, while China's overall storage demand exceeds 30%, indicating significant growth potential for the Chinese market [1][9]. - **Focus on Key Companies**: Companies linked to the two major players, such as Jinghe, HwaCom, Deep Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics, are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their expected price adjustments [1][10]. Advanced Packaging Developments - **Domestic Capacity Breakthrough**: The domestic advanced packaging sector is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with expected improvements in yield and utilization rates by 2026, which will be crucial for valuation and profitability [1][11]. - **AI Chip Performance**: The performance of AI chips is heavily reliant on 2.5D/3D packaging, with domestic leaders like Huawei, Cambricon, and Haiguang expected to ramp up shipments [1][12]. Price Impact on Storage Backend Market - **Opportunities from Price Increases**: The price hikes in storage are creating significant opportunities, with major clients increasing orders and various product lines experiencing price increases ranging from single to double digits [1][13]. Equipment Sector Opportunities - **Testing Equipment Demand**: The expansion of domestic computing power and production lines is driving demand for testing equipment, which is crucial for advanced packaging [1][14]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Advanced Packaging**: There is a strong recommendation to invest in companies with key advanced packaging capabilities and those positioned to benefit from the domestic computing power support, such as Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Deep Technology [1][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in the retail and technology sectors, emphasizing the potential for sustained growth driven by AI and digital transformation in retail, as well as advancements in packaging technology for semiconductor products [1]. Group 1: Retail Sector Developments - The company has signed agreements with global retail giants, indicating a strong call from analysts that the integration of AI and digitalization in retail is reaching new breakthroughs [1]. - There is an expectation of robust growth in the retail sector, driven by downstream demand, suggesting a favorable market environment for companies involved in this transformation [1]. Group 2: Technology and Semiconductor Advancements - The company has achieved breakthroughs in advanced packaging products, transitioning from 2D to 3D dimensional coverage, which is crucial for meeting the needs of leading computing chip clients [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.15% [2] - The advanced packaging, memory, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors showed strength, while commercial aerospace and energy metal stocks weakened [3] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently at 3968.73, with an increase of 3.61 points or 0.09% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index is at 13627.26, up by 23.20 points or 0.17% [3] - The ChiNext Index stands at 3247.74, gaining 4.83 points or 0.15% [3] - N Huadong's stock surged over 1000% upon its listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [3] Notable Stocks - Dongjie Intelligent experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% after announcing the termination of a major asset restructuring plan [5] - Aobo Ceiling's stock hit the daily limit up, following the announcement of a change in its actual controller to Shi Qiming [6] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 26 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.22% [7] - Stocks of Ctrip Group, JD Group, and NetEase showed weakness, while new energy vehicle stocks like NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto saw gains [7]

Group 1 - Advanced packaging, memory, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors showed strong performance in the market [1][4] - The newly listed stock N Hengtong on the Beijing Stock Exchange surged over 1000% [1][4][5] - The education sector was active, with Kevin Education hitting the daily limit, and the Ministry of Education announced plans to promote AI in education by 2026 [2] Group 2 - Longxin Technology, a major DRAM manufacturer, has submitted an IPO application to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 29.5 billion CNY, with expected profits exceeding forecasts by Q4 2025 [2][4] - Dongjie Intelligent experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% after announcing the termination of a major asset restructuring plan [6] - Aoyuan Ceiling's stock hit the daily limit after announcing a change in its actual controller [7] Group 3 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion CNY with a 1.40% interest rate, with 26 billion CNY of reverse repos maturing today [7]

Core Insights - The city of Wuhan is focusing on investment promotion to support the development of a modern industrial system, emphasizing traditional industry transformation, emerging industry growth, and future industry competition [1] - The 2025 Wuhan Investment Promotion Conference showcased 10 representative projects that commenced this year, highlighting the city's commitment to attracting investment [1] Investment Projects - The Jiangcheng Laboratory Advanced Packaging Comprehensive Experimental Platform and Industrialization Base project aims to enhance Wuhan's innovation and industrialization capabilities in the advanced packaging sector, positioning it as a key player in the global semiconductor industry [2] - The Zhongchuang Innovation航PACK project marks the fourth investment by Zhongchuang Innovation in Wuhan within five years, reflecting the company's confidence in the local business environment and development potential [2] - The Fowo Pharmaceutical headquarters and innovative drug R&D production base project focuses on developing next-generation small molecule anti-tumor drugs, with leading products for lung and breast cancer treatment [2] Strategic Industry Development - The Jinggong Technology Carbon Fiber Composite New Materials project targets high-end markets such as aerospace and new energy vehicles, aiming to create a complete carbon fiber industry chain [4] - The Swedish Autoliv Wuhan R&D Center project represents a significant achievement in attracting global high-end innovation resources, enhancing Wuhan's capabilities in automotive safety research and development [4] - The China Automotive Research New Energy and Intelligent Connected Vehicle Technology Innovation and Testing Research Base project will serve as a comprehensive technology innovation platform for the commercial vehicle sector [4] Emerging Economic Sectors - The Hanyang Zao Low-altitude Ecological Center Phase I project is a leading initiative in the low-altitude economy, attracting key enterprises and promoting strategic emerging industry clusters [4] - The Wuhan Qingshan Wanyuan Zhongchuang City project aims to create a smart new industrial park, exemplifying urban renewal and industrial upgrading [5] - The Alibaba Central China Headquarters project represents a shift from traditional single-entity investment to ecosystem cluster investment, attracting nearly 40 upstream and downstream ecological enterprises [5] - The Luzhou Ecological City Cultural Tourism and Commerce Complex project has become a popular destination, receiving nearly 300,000 visitors in four months, showcasing the integration of culture, tourism, and commerce [5] Overall Investment Landscape - The concentration of these projects illustrates Wuhan's achievements in attracting investment over the past year and outlines the city's industrial development trajectory, reinforcing traditional advantages while actively pursuing new sectors such as digital economy, low-altitude economy, biomedicine, and new materials [5]

Macro Research - The growth rate of narrow public budget revenue in China has slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.8% from January to November 2025, and the growth rate in November was flat compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Narrow public budget expenditure increased by 1.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a decrease of 3.7% in November compared to the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decline [2] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a significant drop of 15.8% in November, primarily due to the adjustment in the real estate market [3] Company Research: AVIC Avionics (中航机载) - AVIC Avionics plans to acquire a 59.1816% stake in Hangtou Yuhua for 202 million yuan, aiming to enhance its industrial chain layout and strengthen synergy [7] - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 1.25% to 16.774 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, although net profit declined by 17.73% due to credit impairment losses [8] - The acquisition is expected to complement the industrial chain, with the five target companies each possessing unique technical expertise, which will help AVIC Avionics strengthen its collaborative capabilities and foster new growth points [7] Industry Research: Cultural Communication Industry - The IP food industry in China is rapidly growing, with the market size expected to increase from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan by 2024, representing a CAGR of 18.2% [10] - The IP fun food segment, which combines food with collectible items, is projected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.6% [10] - The core competitiveness in the IP fun food market lies in supply chain management and IP operation, as the differentiation of snack products is low, making cost control crucial [11] Company Research: Three Gorges Tourism (三峡旅游) - Three Gorges Tourism is expected to benefit from the planned construction of four inter-provincial vacation cruise ships, which will enhance overall customer spending and profit levels [27] - The company reported a 20.2% year-on-year increase in comprehensive tourism business revenue to 286 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a record high of 1.2525 million cruise passengers [28] - The inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to provide a new growth driver, with the first two ships expected to be operational by June and December 2026 [29]

Group 1 - The core index tracks 50 stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, emphasizing a growth style [3] - The electronic and pharmaceutical industries account for nearly 75% of the index, indicating a strong concentration in high-growth sectors [3] - As of the latest trading session, the index has seen a 0.9% increase, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 149.6 times [3] Group 2 - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio is calculated as total market value divided by net profit, making it relevant for industries with stable earnings and minimal tax impact [4] - The index was first published on July 23, 2020, and has undergone various updates, including the comprehensive index launched on January 20, 2025 [4] - The fund products related to this index have low management fees of 0.15% per year and custody fees of 0.05% per year [4]