Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's manufacturing business shows stable growth in demand for footwear products, with a revenue increase of 6.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, despite a slight decline in net profit [3][5]. - Retail business faces challenges with an 8.3% year-on-year decline in revenue, attributed to reduced foot traffic in physical stores and a net decrease in direct stores [4][5]. - The company is implementing organizational restructuring and cost-reduction plans to enhance efficiency and digital manufacturing management [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $40.60 billion, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $1.71 billion, down 7.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - Manufacturing business revenue reached $27.98 billion, with a gross margin of 17.7%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - Retail business revenue was 91.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 33.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company expects a conservative growth in manufacturing business footwear shipments in the second half of 2025 due to high base effects and tariff impacts [5][7]. - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is $81.35 billion, $85.88 billion, and $90.51 billion, with corresponding net profits of $3.53 billion, $3.80 billion, and $4.11 billion [7][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 7.2, 6.7, and 6.2 times, respectively [7][9].

展望第三季，裕元管理层对订单持保守态度，主因下游客户在关税不明朗及需求疲弱下审慎下单。管理 层预期第三季出货量将有高单位数同比跌幅，毛利率亦同比下跌。虽然面临短期不确定性，集团强调将 持续于多个地区扩产，并凭借其稳健的资产负债表维持稳定股息分派。 大和发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)中期代工(OEM)收入同比增长6.5%，主要受平均售价同比升2%及出 货量同比升4.7%带动。虽然产能利用率在次季进一步提升至95%，但因各厂区生产调度不均及薪酬上 升，毛利率同比跌0.2个百分点至17.8%。该行重申对裕元的"买入"评级，并将目标价由17港元微降至 16.5港元，对下半年订单量谨慎，同时将2025至27年每股盈利预测下调3%至7%，基于出货量及毛利率 预测下调。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)中期代工(OEM)收入同比增长6.5%，主要受平均 售价同比升2%及出货量同比升4.7%带动。虽然产能利用率在次季进一步提升至95%，但因各厂区生产 调度不均及薪酬上升，毛利率同比跌0.2个百分点至17.8%。该行重申对裕元的"买入"评级，并将目标价 由17港元微降至16.5港元，对下半年订单量谨慎，同时将2025至27年每股盈利预测下调3%至7%，基于 出货量及毛利率预测下调。 展望第三季，裕元管理层对订单持保守态度，主因下游客户在关税不明朗及需求疲弱下审慎下单。管理 层预期第三季出货量将有高单位数同比跌幅，毛利率亦同比下跌。虽然面临短期不确定性，集团强调将 持续于多个地区扩产，并凭借其稳健的资产负债表维持稳定股息分派。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes that its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - The target price for Yue Yuen has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1] - Management expects a high single-digit year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders for Q3 due to a high base effect, with gross margins also expected to decline year-on-year for the same reason [1] - For Q4, an increase in shipment volume is anticipated, which is expected to be the highest level for the year [1] Group 2: Customer and Market Dynamics - Shoe manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, waiting for clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on end markets [1] - Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of manufacturing sales, have requested to share the burden of tariffs [1] Group 3: Sales Performance - The average selling price of the manufacturing business is expected to increase year-on-year due to product mix improvements, with an overall expected low single-digit year-on-year growth in average selling price for the year [1] - Retail business continues to face discount pressure due to weak consumer demand in China, with sales performance in July and August being weak [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes that its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price. The target price has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - The management of Yue Yuen stated during an analyst briefing that footwear manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, waiting for clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on the end market. Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of manufacturing sales, have requested to share the tariff burden [1]. - The company expects a year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders in the third quarter due to a high base effect, with gross margins also anticipated to decline year-on-year. However, a quarter-on-quarter increase in shipment volume is expected in the fourth quarter, which will be the highest level for the year [1]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing - For the second half of the year, the report cites management's comments that due to an improved product mix, the average selling price of the manufacturing business is still expected to increase year-on-year, with an overall average selling price projected to grow in the low single digits year-on-year [1]. - The retail business continues to face discount pressure due to weak consumer demand in China, with sales performance in July and August being sluggish [1].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price. The target price has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1]. Group 1 - The management of Yue Yuen stated during an analyst briefing that footwear manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, awaiting clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on the end market [1]. - Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of the manufacturing business's sales, have requested to share the burden of tariff costs [1]. - The company expects a year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders in the third quarter due to a high base, and a year-on-year decrease in gross margin is also anticipated for the same reason [1]. Group 2 - However, it is expected that the shipment volume in the fourth quarter will increase quarter-on-quarter, reaching the highest level for the year [1].

Summary of Yue Yuen (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng (3813.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng International Holdings Limited (3813.HK) [1][2] Key Industry Insights - **OEM Business Outlook**: The OEM business outlook for 2H25 remains cautious due to shorter order visibility from brands and conservative procurement practices. Management expects Q3 volume to decline by high single digits (HSD%) compared to a high base last year, with a wider year-over-year (yoy) decline in gross profit margin (GPM) than in 1H25 [1][12] - **Retail Demand**: Pou Sheng is experiencing uncertainty in sales recovery for 2H25, with inventory levels under control due to self-help efforts and brand support. The company anticipates a positive growth in average selling price (ASP) for 2H25, contributing to a low single-digit (LSD%) growth in full-year ASP yoy [1][12] Financial Performance - **Pou Sheng Sales Decline**: Pou Sheng reported a -12% yoy decline in sales for 2Q25, followed by a -9% yoy decline in July. Management expects continued pressure in August due to seasonal factors [13] - **Inventory Management**: Inventory levels rose by 4.6% yoy in 1H25, with aging inventory below 9%. The company plans to implement proactive measures to manage inventory in response to demand softness [14] Margin and Cost Insights - **Margin Pressure**: 2Q25 margins faced headwinds from subcontracting costs, uneven production levels, and rising labor costs. The company expects GPM in 3Q25 to decline more than in 1H25, but overall GPM for 2H25 is projected to be higher than in 1H25 [12][14] - **Tariff Implications**: Four brand customers, accounting for approximately 50% of sales, have requested the company to share low single-digit percentage points (LSDpp) of the elevated US tariff. There is no significant increase in tariff-sharing requirements following the reciprocal tariff for ASEAN countries rising to approximately 20% from 10% [9][12] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - **Capex Plans**: The company expects to invest over US$300 million in capex for 2025, focusing on diversifying manufacturing capacity in key countries like Indonesia and India, which is set to start production in 1Q27 [10] Valuation and Price Targets - **Price Target for Yue Yuen**: The target price remains unchanged at HK$14.00, based on an 8x/9x 2025E P/E valuation for Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen's OEM business, respectively [3][20] - **Price Target for Pou Sheng**: The target price is adjusted to HK$0.60 from HK$0.70, reflecting a conservative outlook on sales and margins [3][19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks for Yue Yuen**: Potential risks include tariff hikes impacting demand, weaker-than-expected orders from key accounts, and lower-than-expected margin recovery [20] - **Key Risks for Pou Sheng**: Risks include slower recovery of Nike/adidas growth in China and higher discounts leading to operating deleverage [19] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards Yue Yuen's OEM business appears to be improving, reflected in a 6% increase in share price, driven by settled tariff rates, lower expectations, better ASP, and disciplined operating expense control [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, reflecting the challenges faced in the retail segment while acknowledging steady growth in manufacturing [2][10]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen's manufacturing business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 6.2% year-on-year, reaching USD 2.798 billion, while retail revenue fell by 8.6% to USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The company is focusing on prudent inventory and discount management to balance profitability and channel health, with inventory turnover days at 146 days [4][12]. - The management has emphasized a refined retail strategy and diversification of channels, particularly enhancing online sales which grew by 16% year-on-year [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H2025, total revenue was USD 4.06 billion, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, with manufacturing revenue at USD 2.798 billion and retail revenue at USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The average selling price for footwear increased by 3.2% to USD 20.61 per pair, benefiting from a premium order mix [2][10]. Retail Strategy - Pou Sheng International's omni-channel revenue grew significantly, driven by online sales, which doubled due to live-streaming initiatives [3][11]. - The company plans to maintain its offline store count between 3,300 and 3,500 while focusing on enhancing single-store efficiency [3][11]. Inventory and Cost Management - The management is implementing measures such as production cuts and clearance sales to control inventory levels, with nearly 9% of inventory being aged [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for manufacturing decreased to 17.7%, impacted by rising labor costs and uneven capacity utilization [2][10]. Capacity Expansion and Tariff Strategy - The company is optimizing its capacity layout and expanding production in Indonesia and India to mitigate tariff impacts, with a projected capital expenditure of around USD 300 million for factory construction [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The manufacturing business resilience drives steady revenue growth for the group, while awaiting improvements in the retail segment [5] - The company reported a revenue of USD 4.06 billion for FY25H1, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, driven by a 6.2% increase in manufacturing revenue, while retail revenue declined by 8.3% in RMB terms [7] - The company is positioned as a leading global manufacturer of sports footwear and a top distributor of sports apparel in China, with a stable growth outlook [7] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Expected revenues for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are USD 8.38 billion, USD 8.74 billion, and USD 9.20 billion respectively, with growth rates of 2.4%, 4.3%, and 5.2% [6][8] - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are USD 394.7 million, USD 433.9 million, and USD 473.4 million respectively, with growth rates of 0.6%, 9.9%, and 9.1% [6][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected EPS for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are USD 0.25, USD 0.27, and USD 0.30 respectively [6][8] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected ROE for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are 8.17%, 8.24%, and 8.25% respectively [6][8]

富瑞发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)及宝胜国际(03813)第二季业绩均大致符合该行预期，但较市场普遍 预测低超过10%，相信是由于代工业务利润率受压所致。该行将裕元及宝胜的目标价分别由8港元及1港 元，下调至7.4港元及0.84港元，分别给予"跑输大市"及"买入"评级，忧虑未来6个月订单情况或较疲 弱，将裕元2026年每股盈测下调5%至0.18元，并将宝胜今明两年每股盈测下调30%及18%，至各0.07元 及0.09元人民币。 管理层将代工利润率低于预期归因于订单分配不均及劳动成本上升，又指期内产能利用率已有所提升， 现时对今年下半年订单前景看法转趋审慎，表示第三季属传统淡季，预期出货量同比跌幅将达到高单位 数百分比，毛利率跌幅较上半年更显著，第四季订单情况亦存不确定性，主要由于品牌客户延迟落单所 致。 ...