Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong potential for growth and recovery in profits driven by robust manufacturing demand and retail adjustments [4][7][66]. Core Insights - The company, Yu Yuan Group, is recognized as a leading global footwear manufacturer with a strong retail presence, benefiting from a diversified business model that includes both manufacturing and retail operations [6][18]. - The manufacturing segment is experiencing a recovery in profit margins due to increased demand from overseas sports brands, with capacity utilization reaching 92% in Q3 2024, leading to improved operational efficiency [6][41]. - The retail segment is expected to gradually recover as domestic demand improves, with the company diversifying its brand portfolio to include emerging high-growth sports brands [6][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yu Yuan Group was established in 1988 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 1992, with manufacturing bases in multiple countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia [18]. - The company operates in both manufacturing and retail sectors, with a significant shareholding in Bao Sheng International for retail operations in Greater China [18]. 2. Manufacturing Business - The global demand for sports footwear is on the rise, with the company solidifying its position as a key supplier to major brands like Nike and Adidas [28]. - The manufacturing segment contributes approximately 68% of total revenue, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 9% in Q3 2024 [27][28]. - The company has improved its return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to 6.5% and 10.8% respectively, marking the highest levels since 2018 [41]. 3. Retail Business - The retail segment is poised for recovery, supported by favorable national policies and increasing consumer spending, with the market for sports apparel expected to grow significantly [46][49]. - The company is actively diversifying its brand offerings, including partnerships with emerging brands, which is expected to enhance its market position [50]. - Inventory management has shown improvement, with a decrease in absolute inventory levels post-pandemic, indicating effective control measures [60]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $8.18 billion, $8.83 billion, and $9.61 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $450 million, $498 million, and $556 million [66]. - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, with a weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.8x for comparable companies, while the company's P/E for 2024 is estimated at 7.6x, indicating significant upside potential [7][66].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in manufacturing revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5% in December 2024 and an expected annual growth of 11.1% [1]. - The overall revenue for the listed company in December was USD 680 million, reflecting a 6.9% year-on-year increase, with an annual revenue of USD 8.182 billion, up 3.7% [1]. - The company is optimistic about the 2025 market performance, leveraging a multi-client strategy to mitigate retail and cyclical risks, benefiting from the industry’s "Matthew Effect" which favors leading supply chains [1][2]. - The company is focused on enhancing operational efficiency through cost and expense management, which is expected to support stable growth in overall profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing business is projected to see a significant increase in demand for footwear products in 2024, with steady growth in new production capacity [2]. - The company is committed to improving the efficiency of its operations and enhancing the sales conversion rate of its direct-operated stores [2]. Financial Projections - The revenue forecasts for FY24-26 are adjusted to USD 8.18 billion, USD 9.11 billion, and USD 10.33 billion respectively, with net profits projected at USD 430 million, USD 500 million, and USD 580 million [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are revised to USD 0.27, USD 0.31, and USD 0.36 for FY24-26 [4]. Retail Strategy - The company is focusing on a multi-channel retail strategy and digital transformation to create a personalized and seamless shopping experience for customers [3]. - Collaboration with brand partners is emphasized to provide high-value products and innovative services [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive growth trend in its manufacturing business, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 17% in November 2024 and a cumulative increase of 10.9% [1]. - The overall revenue for the listed companies in November 2024 reached 680 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and a cumulative growth of 3.4% [1]. - The company is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the sports industry and aims to diversify its manufacturing capacity [1]. - The company maintains a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70% in 2023 and a mid-year dividend of 0.40 HKD in 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Projected revenues for FY24-26 are 8.65 billion USD, 9.65 billion USD, and 10.94 billion USD respectively, with corresponding net profits of 460 million USD, 540 million USD, and 620 million USD [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.28 USD, 0.33 USD, and 0.38 USD for FY24, FY25, and FY26 respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8x, 7x, and 6x [2]. Market Position - The company is positioned to capture excess growth opportunities in a relatively stable market, benefiting from a strong customer base and improved supply chain capabilities [1]. - The company’s strategy includes targeting labor supply and infrastructure in Indonesia and India to support sustainable growth [1].

证券时报网讯，里昂的研究报告指出，特朗普2.0关税政策的覆盖范围比2018年更广，全球市场将受到 影响。 品牌商可能通过提价来应对关税，但行业领导者将更关注市场份额与盈利能力的平衡，预计会通过优化 成本结构实现可持续发展。 里昂推荐安踏、普拉达、新秀丽和裕元集团为首选股票，认为它们具备良好的防守性，并给予"跑赢大 市"评级。 校对：姚远 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 48% compared to its current market value [6][131]. Core Insights - The company operates in both upstream manufacturing and downstream retail segments of the sports footwear industry, positioning itself as a leader in the market. It achieved a revenue of $7.89 billion in 2023, with manufacturing and retail contributing 64.1% and 35.9% respectively [1][25]. - The manufacturing segment is expected to see a recovery in orders, with a projected footwear shipment volume of 250 million pairs in 2024, reflecting a double-digit year-on-year growth [1][61]. - The retail segment, while currently facing challenges, is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in foot traffic and improved operational efficiency through digital initiatives [3][115]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The company is a leading global manufacturer of sports and casual footwear, with a strong focus on efficiency improvements that enhance profit margins. In 2023, it shipped 218 million pairs of footwear, generating $5.06 billion in revenue [1][29]. - The company has established production bases in Indonesia and Vietnam, which are crucial for its operational efficiency. As of the end of 2023, the workforce in manufacturing totaled 242,600 employees, with a significant portion based in these countries [40][41]. - The company has a diversified customer base, with major clients including Nike and Adidas, accounting for 40% and 20% of manufacturing revenue respectively. The company maintains a moderate level of customer concentration, reducing dependency on any single client [44][44]. Retail Business - The company is the second-largest sports goods distributor in China, with over 3,523 retail stores and a revenue of approximately $20.06 billion in 2023. The retail segment is currently focused on enhancing store quality and optimizing the sales network [3][85]. - The retail business has been impacted by external macroeconomic conditions, leading to a decline in same-store sales. However, the introduction of digital sales channels, such as micro-stores, has contributed positively to overall sales [3][99]. - The company is implementing a digital transformation strategy to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement, which includes upgrading its ERP systems and enhancing in-store technology [115][116]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $8.13 billion, $8.82 billion, and $9.56 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $450 million, $517 million, and $575 million [6][131]. - The valuation approach includes a 12x multiple for the manufacturing business and a 7x multiple for the retail business, leading to a target market capitalization of HKD 41.8 billion [6][131].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Yuanyuan Group, marking its first coverage [6][11]. Core Insights - Yuanyuan Group is the world's largest sports shoe manufacturer and has a deep layout in the global sports retail industry, with a low valuation and high dividend yield. The company is expected to experience a recovery in manufacturing business profitability and a gradual improvement in retail business performance [6][8][11]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in its operational performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue and net profit growth [6][8][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuanyuan Group, established in 1988, has evolved from a sandal and slipper manufacturer to the largest sports and outdoor shoe manufacturer globally, collaborating with top brands like Nike and Adidas [65]. - The company has faced challenges due to external market fluctuations and the impact of the pandemic on retail operations, but strategic adjustments have begun to yield positive results [65][66]. Manufacturing and Retail Business - The manufacturing segment contributes over 60% of the company's revenue, with a focus on optimizing customer and order structures to enhance efficiency [71]. - The retail segment, operated through its subsidiary Baosheng International, has faced short-term pressures but is expected to recover as the domestic retail environment improves [6][8][11]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained a stable revenue growth rate of 0.4% from 2013 to 2023, although net profit has seen a compound annual decline of 4.5% during the same period [71][73]. - For the forecast period of 2024-2026, the company expects net profits of $444 million, $536 million, and $600 million, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8, 6, and 6 times [6][11]. Market Demand and Competitive Landscape - The global demand for sports shoes is expected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2009 to 2023, outpacing other footwear categories [92][94]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with major brands like Nike and Adidas maintaining significant market shares, while emerging brands are gradually increasing their presence [90][96].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 27.35 per share based on a 2024 PE valuation of 12X [5][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a 172.3% rise to USD 150 million in Q3 2024, driven by a 12.5% increase in total revenue to USD 2.06 billion [2][13]. - Manufacturing revenue grew by 23.1% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.1% [2][14]. - The company achieved a 9M return on invested capital (ROIC) and return on assets (ROA) of 10.8% and 6.5%, respectively, marking a 7-year high [2][13]. Financial Performance - Q3 manufacturing capacity utilization reached 95%, the highest in nine quarters, with a 9M GPM at a 7-year high [3][14]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products decreased by 4.9% year-on-year to USD 20.73, but the decline in prices narrowed each quarter [4][15]. - The retail segment saw Baosheng revenue decline by 10.8% to RMB 4 billion, but the gross profit margin improved to 33.5% [5][16]. Revenue Forecast - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be USD 470 million, USD 520 million, and USD 570 million, respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [5][17]. - The dividend payout ratio is projected to be around 70% in 2024, leading to an expected dividend yield of 10.0% based on the closing price on November 15 [5][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has reported strong earnings with a significant increase in manufacturing revenue in October, continuing a high growth trend [1]. - The company is the largest manufacturer of sports, leisure, and outdoor footwear globally, with a diverse client portfolio and production bases [1]. - The report indicates an upward adjustment in profit forecasts due to continued growth in manufacturing revenue and a positive turnaround in retail business [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.1 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 6.6%, up by 2.7 percentage points [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 330 million USD, a substantial increase of 141% [1]. - Manufacturing revenue for the same period was 4.1 billion USD, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin of 19.6%, up by 1.6 percentage points [1]. Production and Sales - The company shipped 187 million pairs of footwear in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 16.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate was reported at 92%, an increase of 16 percentage points [1]. - In October 2024, manufacturing revenue grew by 21.3% year-on-year, contributing to a cumulative increase of 10.2% for the year [1]. Future Projections - The company expects revenues for FY24-26 to be 8.65 billion USD, 9.65 billion USD, and 10.94 billion USD respectively, with net profits projected at 460 million USD, 540 million USD, and 620 million USD [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.28 USD, 0.33 USD, and 0.38 USD for the respective years [1].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 裕元集团（0551）公司公告点评 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 股票数据 | | | 1 [ 1 T 月 ab 1 le 5 _ 日 S 收 to 盘 ck 价 I （ nf 港 o ] 元） | 15.88 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 6.78-17.48 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1609 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 25544 | | 相关研究 | | | [ 《 Ta 24 b Q le 2 _ 制 R 造 ep 产 o 能 rtI 利 n 用 fo 率 ] | 进一步提升，净利润 | | 增 157.8%》2024.8.22 | | | 《全球头部运动鞋制造商，产能利用率修复带 | | | 动盈利水平持续改善》 2024.6.30 | | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInf ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected performance and dividend yield [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 1.5% year-on-year to $6.08 billion for the first nine months of 2024, with a significant net profit increase of 140.9% to $330 million [4][5]. - The manufacturing segment showed strong performance with a 23.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching $1.5 billion, and a net profit increase of 171.2% to $150 million [4][5]. - The company has raised its full-year shipment guidance to a mid-to-high double-digit growth, reflecting strong order fulfillment and production capacity utilization [5]. Financial Summary - **Key Financial Metrics**: - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at $7.89 billion, with a forecasted growth of 2.4% in 2024, 5.0% in 2025, and 5.1% in 2026 [5][8]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at $275 million, with significant growth expected in the following years: $441 million in 2024, $493 million in 2025, and $547 million in 2026 [5][8]. - Gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 24.4% in 2023 to 24.9% by 2026 [5][8]. - **Operational Performance**: - Q3 saw a 29.5% increase in shipment volume, totaling approximately 66 million pairs, with a capacity utilization rate improving to 95% [4][5]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with SG&A expenses decreasing by 1.4 percentage points to 10.1% in Q3 [4][5]. - **Future Outlook**: - The company anticipates continued strong performance into Q4, with expectations for further improvements in capacity utilization and profit margins [5]. - Projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from $0.17 in 2023 to $0.34 by 2026 [5][8].