瑞银发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)管理层透露第三季代工业务利润率较上半年提升，主要由于期内加 班情况减少、工人对订单熟悉度提升，以及美国关税政策趋向稳定所致，相信有部分订单提前至第四季 生产。该行目前预期裕元第四季销量将同比下跌，但销售均价可提升。展望明年，瑞银预期个别品牌复 苏或带来利好，若即将来临的假期销售表现强劲，品牌信心增强，亦将利好裕元的销售，并带来新品牌 客户，将目标价从18港元上调至18.4港元，评级"买入"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)管理层透露第三季代工业务利润率较上半年提 升，主要由于期内加班情况减少、工人对订单熟悉度提升，以及美国关税政策趋向稳定所致，相信有部 分订单提前至第四季生产。该行目前预期裕元第四季销量将同比下跌，但销售均价可提升。展望明年， 瑞银预期个别品牌复苏或带来利好，若即将来临的假期销售表现强劲，品牌信心增强，亦将利好裕元的 销售，并带来新品牌客户，将目标价从18港元上调至18.4港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with expectations of recovery driven by relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The outlook for the Chinese consumer sector emphasizes the recovery of high-end consumption, supported by favorable monetary policies and market conditions [1] - Credit Lyonnais predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, allowing companies to capture opportunities in market segmentation and global expansion [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - The report identifies three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] - The firm also suggests monitoring the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) [1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Predictions - Credit Lyonnais forecasts a 3% to 4% year-on-year growth in China's sportswear retail sales for the coming year, attributing this to major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth in the next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales are still anticipated to be affected [1] - In the collectible toy segment, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP developments beyond Labubu [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese consumer sector is expected to focus on opportunities in niche markets and high-end consumption, benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock market conditions, and increased offshore financing [1] - The report predicts that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, with companies poised to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and the recovery of high-end consumption [1] - The report highlights three preferred stocks: Anta Sports (02020), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), and Samsonite (01910), with Yue Yuen's target price raised from HKD 16 to HKD 18 [1] Group 2 - The forecast for China's sports apparel retail sales is a year-on-year growth of 3% to 4% for next year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] - In the gold and jewelry sector, while product price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelry sales volume is still expected to be affected [1] Group 3 - In the collectible toy sector, the next catalyst for Pop Mart (09992) may come from IP development beyond Labubu [1] - Investors are also advised to pay attention to the earnings improvement of Li Ning (02331), Yingtong Holdings (06883), and China Duty Free Group (01880) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights the focus on opportunities in the segmented development of the Chinese consumer sector, with high-end consumption benefiting from monetary policy easing, stock market improvements, and increased offshore financing [1] Group 1: Consumer Sector Outlook - The Chinese retail sales of sports apparel are expected to grow by 3% to 4% year-on-year in the coming year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1] - The cosmetics industry in China is projected to achieve low to mid-single-digit growth next year [1] Group 2: Specific Company Recommendations - Credit Lyonnais identifies Anta Sports, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Samsonite as the top three stock picks in the consumer sector [1] Group 3: Jewelry Market Insights - In the gold and jewelry sector, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the second half of 2025, and while price increases may offset VAT cost pressures, retail jewelers' sales may still be impacted [1]

瑞银发表研究报告指，裕元集团管理层透露第三季代工业务利润率较上半年提升，主要由于期内加班情 况减少、工人对订单熟悉度提升，以及美国关税政策趋向稳定所致，相信有部分订单提前至第四季生 产。该行目前预期裕元第四季销量将按年下跌，但销售均价可提升。展望明年，瑞银预期个别品牌复苏 或带来利好，若即将来临的假期销售表现强劲，品牌信心增强，亦将利好裕元的销售，并带来新品牌客 户，将目标价从18港元上调至18.4港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuanyuan Group, highlighting that despite a decline in shipment volume due to a high base, product mix optimization has driven an increase in average selling price (ASP) and improved profit margins beyond expectations [1] Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of $6.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $280 million, down 16.0%. Manufacturing business revenue was $4.23 billion, up 2.3%, with a net profit of $260 million, down 12.6%. Retail business revenue was $1.79 billion, down 7.9%, with a net profit of $2.367 million, down 50.3%. In Q3 2025, revenue was $1.96 billion, down 5.0%, and net profit was $110 million, down 27.0% [1][2] Manufacturing Business Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, manufacturing revenue increased by 2.3% to $4.23 billion, with shipment volume reaching 189 million pairs (up 1.3%). The ASP was $20.88 (up 3.2%). In Q3 2025, manufacturing revenue was $1.43 billion, down 4.5%, with shipment volume of 62.7 million pairs (down 5.3%) and an ASP of $21.4 (up 3.4%). The decline in shipment volume is attributed to a high base from Q3 2024, while ASP growth is due to an increased proportion of high-priced products [2][3] - Regionally, for the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from the U.S. increased by 5.4% (28.5% share), Europe by 11.7% (27.7% share), while revenue from mainland China decreased by 25.9% (13.4% share). Other regions saw a 9.2% increase (30.4% share). The decline in China is primarily due to trade friction and weak demand, while the U.S. and Europe experienced double-digit growth [2] Profitability Analysis - The capacity utilization rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 93%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year. The gross margin was 18.3% (down 1.3 percentage points), mainly due to rising labor costs and lower-than-expected production efficiency. The SG&A expense ratio was 10.2% (down 0.2 percentage points), indicating effective cost control. The net profit margin was 6.2% (down 1.1 percentage points) [3] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.4% (down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), attributed to improved factory production efficiency and product mix optimization. The SG&A expense ratio remained at 10.2% (up 0.1 percentage points), with net profit of $110 million (down 25.7%) and a net profit margin of 7.6% (down 2.2 percentage points) [3] Retail Business Performance - Retail business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $1.79 billion (down 7.9%), impacted by a weak retail environment and intensified competition, with same-store sales declining by double digits. The number of offline stores was 3,338 (down 3.5%). However, online revenue grew by 13% (accounting for 33% of total revenue), with live-streaming revenue more than doubling year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, retail revenue was $520 million (down 6.3%), with a significant improvement in the decline rate. October revenue showed a year-on-year decrease of only 0.7%. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 33.5% (down 0.5 percentage points), primarily due to increased discounts. The SG&A expenses decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, but the SG&A expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 32% due to negative operating leverage [4] - The proportion of old inventory was 9%, with inventory turnover days at 161 days (up 9 days year-on-year), indicating a slowdown in turnover due to weaker-than-expected sales, but still within a healthy range [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zheshang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuanyuan Group (00551), highlighting that despite a decline in shipment volume due to a high base, the company has improved its profit margins through product mix optimization and strong growth in online channels [1] Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of $6.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit of $280 million, down 16.0%. Manufacturing revenue was $4.23 billion, up 2.3%, while retail revenue was $1.79 billion, down 7.9% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of $1.96 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, with a net profit of $110 million, down 27.0%. Manufacturing revenue in Q3 was $1.43 billion, down 4.5% [2] Manufacturing Business Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, manufacturing revenue reached $4.23 billion, with shipment volume at 189 million pairs (up 1.3%) and an average selling price (ASP) of $20.88 (up 3.2%). In Q3, manufacturing revenue was $1.43 billion, with shipment volume at 62.7 million pairs (down 5.3%) and an ASP of $21.4 (up 3.4%) [3] - Revenue by region showed a 5.4% increase in the U.S. (28.5% share), 11.7% in Europe (27.7% share), a 25.9% decline in mainland China (13.4% share), and a 9.2% increase in other regions (30.4% share) [3] Profitability and Efficiency - The manufacturing capacity utilization rate was 93%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.3% (down 1.3 percentage points). The SG&A expense ratio was 10.2% (down 0.2 percentage points) [4] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.4% (down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), driven by enhanced production efficiency and product mix optimization [4] Retail Business Performance - Retail revenue for the first three quarters was $1.79 billion, down 7.9%, affected by a weak retail environment and intensified competition. Same-store sales declined by double digits, with 3,338 direct-operated stores (down 3.5%) [5] - Online sales grew by 13% (33% share), with live-streaming revenue more than doubling year-on-year. In Q3, retail revenue was $520 million, down 6.3%, showing a narrowing decline [5] - The gross margin for retail was 33.5% (down 0.5 percentage points), with old inventory accounting for 9% and inventory turnover days at 161 days (up 9 days) [5]

Summary of Yuanyuan Group Conference Call Company Overview - Yuanyuan Group focuses on manufacturing sports and outdoor footwear, accounting for nearly 80% of its business, with major clients including Nike and Adidas [2][12] - The company has a diversified production capacity, with 54% in Indonesia and 32% in Vietnam, ensuring coverage for exports to the U.S. [2][12] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the controlling shareholder being Pou Chen Corporation, holding 51% [3] Key Points and Arguments Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment is expected to achieve single-digit growth from 2024 to 2025, driven by increased concentration among the top five clients [2][12] - A recovery in demand from Nike is anticipated to accelerate manufacturing growth in 2026 [2][12] - The company has optimized its order structure and eliminated unprofitable production lines since 2024, leading to a rebound in profitability [5][12] Retail Business - The retail segment is undergoing a store optimization process, reducing the number of stores from approximately 10,000 to about 7,000, which has improved same-store sales [2][13] - The retail environment is expected to decline in 2024-2025 due to inventory pressures from Nike, but a bottoming out is projected in 2026, with potential growth in 2027 [2][13] - The company is increasing its focus on e-commerce and other channels to achieve higher returns [2][13] Financial Performance - Despite a 5% decline in shipment volume from 2019 to 2024, the company has managed to increase its average selling price by 4%, maintaining stable revenue [2][14] - The gross margin is relatively low, and the company is working on improving efficiency through dynamic capacity allocation and refined management [2][14] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include a pressured manufacturing environment and weak domestic demand affecting retail operations [7][10] - Opportunities arise from the expected recovery in demand from core clients and the gradual easing of tariff impacts [8][10] Additional Insights - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 70% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 [3] - The overall profit is expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2026, supported by improvements in both manufacturing and retail segments [20] - The company’s valuation is projected at 8 times earnings with a dividend yield of about 10% [20] Conclusion - Yuanyuan Group is positioned for a recovery phase, with internal management optimizations and external market improvements expected to enhance performance in the coming years [9][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $6.02 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of $280 million, down 16.0% year-on-year. The manufacturing business generated $4.23 billion in revenue, up 2.3% year-on-year, while the retail business saw revenue of $1.79 billion, down 7.9% year-on-year [1][2][5] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - In the first three quarters of 2025, the manufacturing business revenue was $4.23 billion, with a shipment volume of 189 million pairs (up 1.3% year-on-year) and an average selling price (ASP) of $20.88 (up 3.2% year-on-year). In Q3 2025, manufacturing revenue was $1.43 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a shipment volume of 62.7 million pairs (down 5.3% year-on-year) and an ASP of $21.4 (up 3.4% year-on-year) [2][3] - The manufacturing business's revenue by region showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in the U.S. (28.5% share), 11.7% in Europe (27.7% share), and a decrease of 25.9% in mainland China (13.4% share) [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The capacity utilization rate for the manufacturing business was 93% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 18.3% (down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year). The SG&A expense ratio was 10.2% (down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.4% (down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), attributed to improved production efficiency and product mix optimization [3] Retail Business - The retail business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $1.79 billion (down 7.9% year-on-year), affected by a weak retail environment and intensified competition. However, online revenue grew by 13% [4] - In Q3 2025, retail revenue was $520 million, down 6.3% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in October, where revenue was down only 0.7% year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.3 billion, $8.8 billion, and $9.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $393 million, $441 million, and $488 million [5][12]