Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - On reported record net sales of 749 million Swiss Francs for FY25Q2, a 32% increase (currency neutral +38%), exceeding market expectations, driven by strong DTC performance and growth in the Asia-Pacific region [2][18] - Gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 61.5%, benefiting from a higher DTC share, reduced shipping costs, and a weaker dollar [2][18] - The company incurred a net loss of 41 million Swiss Francs, with a net profit margin declining from 5.4% to -5.5%, primarily due to a 140 million Swiss Franc foreign exchange loss [2][18] - Revenue growth by region: EMEA +42.92%, Americas +16.84%, Asia-Pacific +101.35% [2][18] - DTC revenue increased by 54.3% to 310 million Swiss Francs, with DTC share rising to a historical high of 41.1% [2][18] - The company raised its FY25 revenue growth guidance to 31% (previously 28%) and adjusted gross margin guidance to 60.5%-61% [2][18] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Yu Yuan Group reported H1 2025 revenue of 406 million USD, a 1.1% increase, but net profit decreased by 7.2% [3][19] - 361 Degrees reported H1 2025 revenue of 580 million CNY, an 11% increase, with net profit rising by 8.6% [3][19] - Li Ning reported H1 2025 revenue of 173 million CNY, a 7.9% increase, but net profit fell by 13.4% [4][20] - Bailing Dongfang reported H1 2025 revenue of 359.1 million CNY, a 9.99% decrease, but net profit increased by 67.53% [4][21] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector underperformed, with the SW textile and apparel index down 1%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.7% [24] - Cotton prices in China increased by 1.43% this week, with the 3128B index at 15,214 CNY/ton [8][38] - The textile and apparel export for January to July 2025 grew by 0.53%, totaling 170.74 billion USD [55] Consumer Insights - Online sales data from Taobao and Tmall showed improvements in July 2025 for sports and leisure apparel, with notable growth from brands like Baoxini [22][22] - The overall retail sales in China for January to July 2025 increased by 4.8%, with online retail sales growing by 9.2% [22][25]

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：盛开/曹冬青 本报告导读： Q2 制造业务收入稳健增长，毛利率环比Q1 改善，H2 订单能见度有限，但毛利率预计好于 H1；零售业 务 Q2承压，国内促销环境浓，预计 H2仍面临压力。 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，关税影响超预期 量价拆分来看，出货量1.27 亿双，同比增长5.0%（Q1/Q2 产能利用率分别为91%/95%），ASP 20.61 美 元，同比增长3.2%。H1 毛利率为17.7%，同比下降1.4pct（Q1/Q2 分别为17.67%/17.75%，分别同 比-2.6/+1.9pct），主要由于各厂区的产能负载不均，部分产线生产效率未达设定标准，叠加各地新增人 力及薪资上涨推高成本。 投资要点： 零售业务：Q2 收入、毛利率承压。2025H1 零售业务收入为12.6 亿美元，同比下降8.6%（Q1/Q2 分 别-6.5%/-11.1%），其中：实体店方面各地客流波动，线下直营及加盟渠道收入较2024 年同期显著下 滑；全渠道同比增长16%，直播销售翻倍增长。H1 毛利率为33.5%，同比下降0.7pct（Q1/Q2 分 别-0.5/-0.9pct），主因行业促销氛围 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on stable growth in manufacturing and challenges in retail operations [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Business - In H1 2025, the manufacturing business achieved revenue of $2.798 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The total shipment of finished footwear reached 127 million pairs, up 5.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price of $20.61 per pair, reflecting a 3.2% increase [1] - The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing was 93%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 showing a further increase to 95% [1] - The gross profit margin for manufacturing decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.7%, attributed to uneven order fulfillment rates and rising labor costs [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company from manufacturing was $155 million, a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.5% [1] Group 2: Retail Business - In H1 2025, retail revenue was $9.159 billion, down 8.3% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased foot traffic in physical stores and a reduction in the number of stores [2] - The number of direct-operated stores in mainland China decreased by 40 to 3,408 by the end of H1 2025 [2] - The retail gross profit margin was 33.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, although Q2 2025 showed a slight improvement [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company from retail operations was $188 million, a significant decline of 44.0% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.1% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company expects stable growth in footwear demand in the manufacturing sector, but anticipates that growth rates may not match those of H1 2025 due to conservative brand ordering amid rising tariffs [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to $8.135 billion, $8.588 billion, and $9.051 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -0.6%, 5.6%, and 5.4% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $353 million, $380 million, and $411 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.1%, 7.9%, and 8.0% respectively [2] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-2027 is projected to be 7.2, 6.7, and 6.2 times, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [2]

裕元集团发布2025 年中期报告，业绩符合预期。2025H1 公司收入40.6 亿美元，同比增长1.1%，归母净 利润1.71 亿美元，同比下降7.2%，表现符合预期。利润下滑主要系制造业务人工成本上涨及产能负载 不均拖累毛利率，零售业务受客流下降等收入下滑，刚性成本费用影响下利润下滑幅度更大。公司拟派 发中期股息0.4 港元/股，派息比例48%。 制造业务订单稳步增长，优质产品结构驱动均价回升。2025H1 制造业务实现收入28.0 亿美元，同比增 长6.2%，产能利用率93%，同比增加3pct，1）量价维度：2025H1 出货量1.3 亿双，同比增长5.0%，主 要系鞋履市场需求呈稳健增长；平均售价20.61 美元/双，同比增长3.2%，主要系订单组合优质拉动。 2）区域维度：2025H1 来自美国/欧洲/其他地区的收入同比增长12.7%/12.9%/14.0%，收入占比 28.3%/27.5%/30.8%，中国大陆收入同比下滑24.0%，占比13.4%。3）产能维度：印尼、越南、中国大陆 出货量占比分别为53%/32%/10%，出货量分别同比上升6.1%/7.5%/下跌12.6%。2025H1 制造业务 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.06 billion USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million USD, down 7.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The manufacturing business reported revenue of 2.80 billion USD, up 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million USD, down 0.2% year-on-year. Conversely, the retail segment, represented by Bao Sheng International, saw revenue of 1.26 billion USD, down 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 million USD, down 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.4 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 48% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment showed robust growth with a Q2 revenue of 1.47 billion USD, up 6.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million USD, up 29.2% year-on-year. The output volume increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the average selling price rose by 3.9% year-on-year [7]. - The capacity utilization rate improved to 95%, although there were regional disparities in capacity load and rising labor costs, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin [7]. Retail Business - The retail segment faced challenges with Bao Sheng International reporting a Q2 revenue decline of 11.1% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 69.2% year-on-year. The company closed 40 stores in H1 2025, with same-store sales declining significantly [7]. - Despite a slight improvement in discount rates, the increase in selling, general and administrative expenses led to a decrease in net profit margin [7]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing business is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of production capacity in Indonesia and new capacity in India, which may help address regional capacity imbalances [7]. - The retail business is under pressure in the short term, but a multi-channel operation and diversified brand strategy may drive future growth [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 360 million USD, 400 million USD, and 450 million USD, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) and its subsidiary Pou Chen Corporation (03813) exceeded market expectations for net profit in Q2 2025 by 16% and 49% respectively, primarily due to non-operating income and tax benefits exceeding expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yue Yuen's Q2 2025 net profit increased by 13% year-on-year, surpassing market consensus by 16%, driven by higher-than-expected non-operating income and lower tax expenses [2][5] - The group's total revenue for Q2 2025 was reported at $2.03 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase, with OEM sales growing by 6.5% [4] - Pou Chen's Q2 2025 revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while net profit fell by 69% year-on-year but exceeded market expectations by 49% [2][6] Group 2: Operational Insights - OEM business sales showed steady growth, but gross margins were under pressure due to uneven production levels and rising labor costs [2][4] - Inventory levels increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days at 146, up from 138 in Q1 2025 [8] - The company announced a change in CFO, with Chau Chi Ming taking over the position [2][3] Group 3: Market Focus Areas - Investors should focus on the OEM business, including updates on order outlook for H2 2025 and the impact of tariff changes [3] - In the retail segment (Pou Chen), attention should be given to recent sales trends, inventory status, and performance by brand and product category [3]

高盛发布研报称，裕元集团(00551)及其子公司宝胜国际(03813)2025年第二季度净利润分别超市场预期 16%和49%，主因非经营性收益及税费优惠超预期。OEM业务大体符合预期，但毛利率承压。该行认为 投资者关注重点应放在原始设备制造(OEM)业务，以及零售(宝胜国际)业务。关注关税政策变化以及其 首席财务官变更的最新情况。 毛利率(GPM)：综合毛利率为22.4%(市场一致预期为22.3%)，其中原始设备制造业务毛利率为17.8%(略 低于市场一致预期的18.1%)，零售业务毛利率约为34.5%(超过市场一致预期的33.5%)。尽管设备利用率 同比和环比都有所提高，但公司指出以下因素继续影响第二季度原始设备制造业务的利润率：1)部分工 厂的订单完成率和设备利用率与平均水平显著偏离，导致生产水平不均衡;2)部分生产线的生产效率未 达到既定目标;3)随着各地区劳动力规模扩大和工资上涨，总劳动力成本上升。 营业利润率(OPM)：综合营业利润率与市场一致预期相符，这得益于零售和原始设备制造业务的营业利 润率大体符合预期。 净利润(NI)：裕元集团2025年第二季度报告的净利润为9500万美元(超过市场一致预期 ...

香港股市创下自五月初以来的最佳单日表现。 主要推动因素包括：1. 延续昨日的利息补贴政策利好；2. 地缘政治局势逐步改善（关税休战虽已提前敲 定但基本符合预期）；3. 科技巨头财报季前的风险偏好升温。 南下资金净卖出 10 亿美元，而恒生指数大幅上涨，印证了本地市场风险情绪正在积聚动能。 港股成交额环比暴增 32%，南下交易占比从本周稍早的 30% 回落至 27%，再次表明外资买入是主要推 手。做空比例最高的股票仅上涨 2.7%，未呈现显著超额收益，说明即便存在轧空规模有限。 资金流向上 —— 高盛的交易平台买入呈现 1.2 倍净卖出状态。消费和科技板块是平台最活跃的主题 （双向交易并存，但消费股更适合卖出而科技股更宜买入）。消费板块呈现双向流动，餐饮类股遭遇部 分抛售，而普拉达等零售股则买卖交投活跃。科技板块中，持续在硬科技领域获得买单，但对腾讯音乐 等冲高个股转为卖出。网易也获得较大力度买入。医疗保健 / 制药板块更受青睐 —— 翰森制药虽呈双 向交易但买方更占优势。 从行业板块来看，医疗保健、科技和消费板块领涨 —— 在中国政府宣布对符合条件的个人消费贷款实 施贴息计划后，国内零售商与消费医疗企业的股价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The manufacturing business showed steady revenue growth in Q2, with an improved gross margin compared to Q1. However, visibility for orders in H2 is limited, although gross margins are expected to be better than H1. The retail business faced pressure in Q2 due to a competitive domestic promotional environment, and it is anticipated to continue facing challenges in H2 [2][10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at $7.89 billion, with a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year. Revenue is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2024, followed by a slight decline of 2.0% in 2025, and then recover with growth rates of 5.7% and 5.2% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4] - Gross profit for 2023 is estimated at $1.93 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at $275 million for 2023, with a significant increase of 42.8% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 9.6% in 2025 [4] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 6.49 for 2023, which is expected to rise to 9.15 in 2024 before declining to 7.63 in 2025 [4] Manufacturing Business - In H1 2025, the manufacturing business generated revenue of $2.61 billion, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase. The shipment volume reached 127 million pairs, up 5.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of $20.61, a 3.2% increase [10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 17.7%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to uneven capacity utilization across factories and rising costs from increased labor and wages [10] Retail Business - The retail business reported revenue of $1.26 billion in H1 2025, a decline of 8.6% year-on-year. The gross margin for H1 was 33.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased discounting in a competitive promotional environment [10] H2 Outlook - For H2, the manufacturing side's order visibility remains uncertain, but gross margins are expected to improve compared to H1. The retail side may continue to face pressure from domestic discount promotions, although the company remains confident in its leading brands and plans to expand its product offerings [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][25]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-year performance for 2025 that met expectations, with a revenue of USD 4.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 171 million, down 7.2% year-on-year [7][9]. - The manufacturing segment showed steady growth in orders, with revenue reaching USD 2.8 billion, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, driven by a robust demand in the footwear market [7]. - The retail segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue declining by 8.3% year-on-year to RMB 9.16 billion, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and store adjustments [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.89 billion - 2024: USD 8.18 billion - 2025E: USD 8.27 billion - 2026E: USD 8.60 billion - 2027E: USD 8.97 billion - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: USD 275 million - 2024: USD 392 million - 2025E: USD 361 million - 2026E: USD 411 million - 2027E: USD 439 million [7][16]. Manufacturing Business Performance - The manufacturing business achieved a capacity utilization rate of 93%, with a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points [7]. - The average selling price per pair of shoes rose to USD 20.61, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, driven by a favorable order mix [7]. - The gross margin for the manufacturing segment decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.7%, attributed to rising labor costs and uneven capacity loading [7]. Retail Business Performance - The retail business saw a significant decline in net profit, down 44% year-on-year to RMB 1.88 billion, impacted by weak consumer demand [7]. - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 40 to 3,408, with offline sales revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year [7]. - Online sales through all channels grew by 16% year-on-year, with live-streaming sales doubling [7]. Inventory and Cost Management - The manufacturing segment maintained stable inventory turnover days at 51 days, while the retail segment saw an increase to 146 days [7]. - The manufacturing business effectively controlled expenses, with selling and administrative expenses accounting for 10.3% of revenue, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and the second-largest sports goods retailer in China, with a strong presence in the global sports industry [7]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of USD 360 million, USD 410 million, and USD 440 million respectively [7]. - The target price is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times for 2025, indicating over 20% upside potential from the current price [7].