Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of USD 8.182 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 42.8% year-on-year [2][4] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, combined with an interim dividend of HKD 0.4 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 69% [2] - The manufacturing business showed strong order growth in 2024, with a revenue of USD 5.621 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year, driven by improved capacity utilization and production efficiency [4] - The retail business faced challenges with a revenue decline of 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to reduced foot traffic in physical stores and a net decrease of 75 stores in mainland China [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the manufacturing business's output volume reached 255 million pairs of shoes, a 16.9% increase year-on-year, although the average selling price decreased by 5.1% to USD 20.25 per pair [4] - The manufacturing business's capacity utilization improved to 93%, up 14 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 19.9% [4] - The retail business's gross margin improved slightly to 34.2%, with a net profit of USD 49.2 million, reflecting a 0.2% year-on-year growth [5] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company expects a recovery in manufacturing business revenue, with a projected growth of 3.8% to USD 8.493 billion, while retail revenue is anticipated to decline by 4.3% [5] - The company forecasts net profits of USD 465 million, USD 502 million, and USD 532 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.5%, 8.0%, and 6.1% [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has experienced revenue growth driven by a high manufacturing environment, with footwear shipment volume increasing nearly 17% [5][7] - For FY24, the company achieved revenue of $8.182 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with manufacturing revenue growing by 11.1% [7] - The gross profit for FY24 was $1.993 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $392 million, up 42.8% year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 to FY27 are estimated at $8.674 billion, $9.131 billion, and $9.541 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $501 million, $571 million, and $604 million [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.31, $0.36, and $0.38 for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.84% in FY25 to 10.36% in FY27 [6][8] Manufacturing Business Insights - The manufacturing segment reported a revenue of $5.621 billion for FY24, with a gross margin of 19.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Footwear shipment volume reached 255 million pairs, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with capacity utilization rising to 93%, the highest since FY21 [7] - The company’s footwear shipments from Indonesia increased by 28.6%, contributing to 54% of total shipments, benefiting from lower labor costs [7] Retail Business Insights - The retail segment saw a revenue decline of 8.0% (in RMB terms) for FY24, but the gross margin improved to 34.2%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is diversifying its brand portfolio by increasing investments in emerging sports brands and aims to restore growth in its retail business [7]

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 纺织制造 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 13 日 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 月 | 11 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 15.10 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 18.40/8.37 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 24,228.80 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 24,228.80 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 33.37 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 裕元集团(00551.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——制造高景气驱动集团营收增长，鞋履出货量增长近 17% 投资要点： 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com | 盈利预测与估值（美元） | | | | | ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the total revenue increased to $8,182,161 thousand, representing a growth of 3.7% compared to $7,890,168 thousand in 2023[2] - The recurring profit attributable to the company's owners rose significantly by 43.7% to $378,627 thousand from $263,399 thousand in the previous year[2] - The total profit attributable to the company's owners increased by 42.8% to $392,415 thousand, up from $274,710 thousand in 2023[2] - Basic earnings per share improved by 42.9% to 24.37 cents, compared to 17.05 cents in the prior year[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year reached $457,103 thousand, a significant increase from $255,111 thousand in 2023[5] - The company reported a total tax expense of $147,444 thousand for 2024, significantly higher than $80,992 thousand in 2023[20] - The company’s profit for the year 2024 was $392,415,000, an increase from $274,710,000 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 43.0%[27] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was $392.4 million, representing a 42.8% increase from $274.7 million in the previous year[38] Dividends - The interim dividend was doubled to HKD 0.40 from HKD 0.20, while the proposed final dividend increased by 28.6% to HKD 0.90 from HKD 0.70[2] - The company declared a final dividend of HK$0.90 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, up from HK$0.70 per share in 2023, which translates to a total of approximately $1,444,094,000[25][26] - The board declared a final dividend of HK$0.90 per share for 2025, up from HK$0.70 per share in 2023, resulting in a total annual dividend of HK$1.30 per share[71] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the manufacturing business reached $5,620,753 thousand, up 11.1% from $5,059,438 thousand in the previous year[12] - Retail business revenue decreased to $2,561,408 thousand, down 9.5% from $2,830,730 thousand in 2023[12] - Revenue from sports/outdoor shoes was $4,403,600 thousand, an increase of 8.9% compared to $4,041,081 thousand in 2023[14] - Revenue from the United States was $1,542,031 thousand, up 9.5% from $1,408,248 thousand in 2023[15] - Revenue from Europe increased to $1,429,624 thousand, a rise of 11.1% from $1,286,960 thousand in the previous year[15] - The footwear segment's revenue increased by 11.0% to $5,169.0 million, with a shipment volume rise of 16.9% to 255.3 million pairs[39] - The group’s manufacturing revenue from footwear, soles, accessories, and others totaled $5,620.8 million, an increase of 11.1%[39] - The group’s revenue from sports/outdoor shoes accounted for 53.8% of total revenue, while casual shoes and sports sandals contributed 9.4%[42] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled $3,530,430 thousand, slightly down from $3,574,374 thousand in the previous year[6] - Current assets increased to $3,844,924 thousand from $3,783,858 thousand, driven by higher inventory and receivables[6] - The net asset value rose to $4,914,354 thousand, compared to $4,710,028 thousand in 2023, reflecting a solid financial position[8] - Accounts receivable increased to $938,499,000 in 2024 from $885,145,000 in 2023, marking a rise of about 6.0%[28] - The company’s accounts payable rose to $500,454,000 in 2024 from $475,505,000 in 2023, an increase of about 5.2%[29] Costs and Expenses - The company reported a decrease in financing costs to $63,339 thousand from $85,039 thousand, indicating improved financial management[4] - Employee benefits expenses totaled $2,025,704,000 in 2024, compared to $1,990,412,000 in 2023, reflecting an increase of about 1.8%[23] - The total cost of sales for the manufacturing business was $4,503.7 million, an increase of 10.2% from $4,087.3 million in 2023[48] - The gross profit for the group rose by 3.5% to $1,992.7 million, with an overall gross margin of 24.4%[47] - The manufacturing segment's gross profit increased by 14.9% to $1,117.0 million, with a gross margin of 19.9%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year[47] - Total selling and distribution expenses decreased by 6.3% to $838.2 million, accounting for approximately 10.2% of revenue[50] - Administrative expenses rose by 1.2% to $553.4 million, representing about 6.8% of revenue[50] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The net cash flow from operating activities was $537.1 million, down from $944.7 million in 2023[56] - As of December 31, 2024, the group had cash and cash equivalents of $943.2 million, down from $1,142.1 million in 2023[57] - The group’s total capital expenditure for 2024 was $211.3 million, up from $200.6 million in 2023[61] - Capital expenditure for the manufacturing business was $159.8 million, an increase from $152.0 million in 2023, focusing on strategic expansion and digital transformation[61] - Retail business capital expenditure slightly increased to $51.5 million from $48.6 million in 2023, continuing a refined retail strategy[63] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on digital smart manufacturing management to enhance overall profitability and efficiency[32] - The group aims to enhance operational resilience and maintain a healthy cash flow while pursuing digital transformation and automation technologies[79] - The group aims to fully launch its SAP ERP system and integrated operation platform (OCP) by 2025, focusing on decision-making and operational management applications[80] - The retail subsidiary, Bao Sheng, will continue to implement a refined retail strategy, dynamically expanding its physical and omnichannel retail presence, and enhancing product category offerings[80] - The company is committed to enhancing its operational capabilities and ESG-oriented management to adapt to rapidly changing market demands[80] Employee and Governance - The group employed approximately 285,500 employees as of December 31, 2024, a 7.9% increase from 264,700 employees in 2023[73] - The company has complied with all applicable corporate governance code provisions during the year[84] - The annual general meeting will be held on May 23, 2025, at the company's headquarters in Hong Kong[90] - The company expresses gratitude to customers, suppliers, and shareholders for their support and acknowledges the contributions of its directors and employees[95] Market Outlook - The global sports goods industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2029, with a market size projected to reach $548 billion by 2029[77] - The company anticipates a lengthy appeal process regarding tax disputes in Indonesia, which may take one to two years[21] Share Repurchase - The company repurchased a total of 7,627,500 shares at a total cost of approximately HKD 116,856,528 (equivalent to about USD 15,009,000) during the year[82] - The share repurchase included transactions at prices ranging from HKD 12.94 to HKD 17.42 per share, with the highest repurchase price being HKD 17.40[82] - The company’s employee stock incentive plan trustee purchased a total of 1,350,000 shares at a total cost of approximately HKD 15,368,000 (equivalent to about USD 1,965,000)[82] Joint Ventures and Associates - The group recorded a profit of $78.4 million from joint ventures and associates in 2024, compared to $62.2 million in the previous year[70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [7][5]. Core Views - The company is optimistic about the order trends for 2025, expecting a significant increase in demand for its manufacturing business due to the normalization of the global footwear market [1][3]. - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 0.9-1.1 billion for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 21.5% to 31.5%, while the annual net profit for 2024 is projected to be USD 4.3-4.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 55% to 60% [1]. - The manufacturing business is expected to benefit from improved production efficiency and capacity utilization, leading to steady growth in gross and operating margins [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For January 2025, the manufacturing business revenue grew by 1.1% year-on-year, while the retail segment, represented by Bao Sheng, saw a revenue increase of 24.2% [2]. - The overall revenue for the listed company in January reached USD 800 million, marking a 9.3% year-on-year growth [2]. Operational Strategy - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in its manufacturing and retail operations, which are expected to enhance overall profitability [3]. - The manufacturing capacity remains in high demand, with strong growth in footwear shipments and a gradual narrowing of price declines [3]. Digital Transformation - The company is implementing a long-term digital transformation strategy to enhance operational excellence through digital management and automation [4]. - Integration of manufacturing management systems into a unified operational platform is aimed at improving production efficiency and investment returns [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report maintains earnings forecasts for FY24-26, estimating revenues of USD 8.18 billion, USD 9.11 billion, and USD 10.33 billion respectively, with net profits of USD 430 million, USD 500 million, and USD 580 million [5]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are USD 0.27, USD 0.31, and USD 0.36, with PE ratios of 8x, 7x, and 6x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 16.00 HKD [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 426-440 million USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55-60%. This growth is driven by a significant increase in order demand for its manufacturing business, improved capacity utilization, and enhanced production efficiency [3][4]. - The manufacturing business is experiencing a steady increase in revenue, while the retail business continues to face challenges due to the consumer environment. The company anticipates a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with a net profit margin projected to be between 4.5% and 5.1% [4][5]. - The company has a strong position in the global sports shoe manufacturing sector and is the second-largest sports goods retailer in China. Its vertical integration strategy allows it to effectively control the supply chain, with a diverse and loyal customer base [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 8,187 million USD for 2024, with a growth rate of 4%. The net profit is expected to be 432 million USD, reflecting a growth rate of 57% [6]. - For the years 2025 and 2026, the projected revenues are 8,919 million USD and 9,594 million USD, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 503 million USD and 556 million USD [6]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the retail environment, which is expected to provide additional growth opportunities. The manufacturing segment is anticipated to see robust growth due to improved order conditions and capacity release [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 16.00 HKD [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 426-440 million USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55-60%. This growth is driven by a significant increase in order demand for manufacturing, improved capacity utilization, and enhanced production efficiency [3][4]. - The manufacturing business is experiencing a steady increase in revenue, while the retail business continues to face challenges due to the consumer environment. The company anticipates a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with a net profit margin projected to be between 4.5% and 5.1% [4][5]. - The company has a strong position in the global sports shoe manufacturing sector and is the second-largest sports goods retailer in China. Its vertical integration allows for effective control over the supply chain, with a diverse and loyal customer base [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 8,187 million USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 4%. The net profit is expected to be 432 million USD, reflecting a 57% increase year-on-year [6]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be 0.27 USD in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.7 [6]. Business Segments - Manufacturing revenue is expected to grow steadily, with monthly revenue growth rates of 10.2%, 10.9%, and 11.1% observed [4]. - Retail revenue growth has been negative but shows signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline in monthly revenue [4][5]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth, with strong manufacturing barriers and an increasing market share anticipated [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong potential for growth and recovery in profits driven by robust manufacturing demand and retail adjustments [4][7][66]. Core Insights - The company, Yu Yuan Group, is recognized as a leading global footwear manufacturer with a strong retail presence, benefiting from a diversified business model that includes both manufacturing and retail operations [6][18]. - The manufacturing segment is experiencing a recovery in profit margins due to increased demand from overseas sports brands, with capacity utilization reaching 92% in Q3 2024, leading to improved operational efficiency [6][41]. - The retail segment is expected to gradually recover as domestic demand improves, with the company diversifying its brand portfolio to include emerging high-growth sports brands [6][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yu Yuan Group was established in 1988 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 1992, with manufacturing bases in multiple countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia [18]. - The company operates in both manufacturing and retail sectors, with a significant shareholding in Bao Sheng International for retail operations in Greater China [18]. 2. Manufacturing Business - The global demand for sports footwear is on the rise, with the company solidifying its position as a key supplier to major brands like Nike and Adidas [28]. - The manufacturing segment contributes approximately 68% of total revenue, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 9% in Q3 2024 [27][28]. - The company has improved its return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to 6.5% and 10.8% respectively, marking the highest levels since 2018 [41]. 3. Retail Business - The retail segment is poised for recovery, supported by favorable national policies and increasing consumer spending, with the market for sports apparel expected to grow significantly [46][49]. - The company is actively diversifying its brand offerings, including partnerships with emerging brands, which is expected to enhance its market position [50]. - Inventory management has shown improvement, with a decrease in absolute inventory levels post-pandemic, indicating effective control measures [60]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $8.18 billion, $8.83 billion, and $9.61 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $450 million, $498 million, and $556 million [66]. - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, with a weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.8x for comparable companies, while the company's P/E for 2024 is estimated at 7.6x, indicating significant upside potential [7][66].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in manufacturing revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5% in December 2024 and an expected annual growth of 11.1% [1]. - The overall revenue for the listed company in December was USD 680 million, reflecting a 6.9% year-on-year increase, with an annual revenue of USD 8.182 billion, up 3.7% [1]. - The company is optimistic about the 2025 market performance, leveraging a multi-client strategy to mitigate retail and cyclical risks, benefiting from the industry’s "Matthew Effect" which favors leading supply chains [1][2]. - The company is focused on enhancing operational efficiency through cost and expense management, which is expected to support stable growth in overall profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing business is projected to see a significant increase in demand for footwear products in 2024, with steady growth in new production capacity [2]. - The company is committed to improving the efficiency of its operations and enhancing the sales conversion rate of its direct-operated stores [2]. Financial Projections - The revenue forecasts for FY24-26 are adjusted to USD 8.18 billion, USD 9.11 billion, and USD 10.33 billion respectively, with net profits projected at USD 430 million, USD 500 million, and USD 580 million [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are revised to USD 0.27, USD 0.31, and USD 0.36 for FY24-26 [4]. Retail Strategy - The company is focusing on a multi-channel retail strategy and digital transformation to create a personalized and seamless shopping experience for customers [3]. - Collaboration with brand partners is emphasized to provide high-value products and innovative services [3].