证 券 研 究 报 告 上游弹性凸显，下游领衔国际 2026年石油化工行业春季投资策略 证券分析师：邵靖宇 A0230524080001 宋涛 A0230516070001 研究支持：丁莹 A0230125070005 2026.03.25 核心观点 一、油气开采：地缘政治冲突加剧，油价快速冲高 预计2026年布伦特油价运行区间为80-150美元/桶。供应方面，地缘政治导致霍尔木兹海峡封锁，接近2000万桶/日原油+产 品出口明显受限。虽然IEA释放4亿桶战略储备，沙特、阿联酋等国家通过管道绕行一部分原油出口，但整体仍存在较大缺口， 持续消化当前全球原油库存。需求方面，2026年全球GDP增速约3.1%，原油需求增速有所放缓，但后续战略储备需求将提升。 我们判断，2026年原油供需将出现缺口，不影响需求情况下每天缺口约740万桶，油价中枢相比2025年将大幅提升。 二、炼化：成本压力提升，加速海外产能出清 地缘政治除了对原油影响加深外，对全球炼厂开工预计也将造成显著冲击。一方面，原油运输出现明显短缺后，炼厂成本大幅 提升，低端小炼厂劣势明显加剧。同时，部分地区原料供应链稳定性也将面临较大冲击，加剧炼厂降负检修 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 下游负反馈启动，合成橡胶负荷预期下滑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-3-23 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙（助理） 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：下游负反馈启动，合成橡胶负荷预期下滑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 11 11 -4 09% 69 2 63 -16 04% 65 58 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | 71 | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，古雷石化、内蒙古久泰、壳牌二期装置停车，且山东亦有装置停车检修，影响产量下降 | | | | | 明显。顺丁橡胶，周期内东北、山东、浙江及广东多数顺丁橡胶装置存在不同程度降负，同时浙江 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 3 月 23 日 行业动态 投资建议 截至 3 月 22 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 28.03 倍，处在历史（2002 年至 今）81.52%分位数；市净率为 2.53 倍，处在历史 70.98%分位数。SW 石油石化市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 16.74 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）50.60%分位数；市净率为 1.62 倍，处在 历史 55.15%分位数。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反内卷"等措施有望催化 行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长。短 期地缘冲突持续影响原油及部分石化产品供应与运输，加剧波动幅度，关注：1.大型能源央 企；2.原料供应稳定且相对低成本的煤化工等龙头公司；3.供需格局较好成本顺利传导的精 细化工龙头。中长期推荐投资主线：1、传统化工龙头经营韧性凸显，布局新材料等领域， 竞争能力逆势提升，行业景气度好转背景下有望迎来业绩、估值双提升；2、"反内卷"等 持续催化，关注供需格局持续向好子行业，包括炼化、聚酯、染料、有机硅、农药、制冷 剂、磷化工等；3 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而産生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司 PETROCHINA COMPANY LIMITED （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） (股份代號：857) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第 13.10B 條作出。 茲載列中國石油天然氣股份有限公司在上海證券交易所網站刊登的《中國石油天然氣股份有限 公司關於召開 2025 年度業績説明會的公告》，僅供參閱。 特此公告 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司董事會 一、说明会类型 本次业绩说明会通过网络互动形式召开，公司将介绍2025年度的 经营成果及财务指标的具体情况，并在信息披露允许的范围内就投资者 普遍关注的问题进行交流。 中國北京 2026 年 3 月 20 日 於本公告日，本公司董事會由戴厚良先生擔任董事長，由周心懷先生擔任副董事長及非執行董事， 由段良偉先生、周松先生及謝軍先生擔任非執行董事，由任立新先生、張道偉先生及宋大勇先生擔 任執 ...

证券代码：601857 证券简称：中国石油 公告编号：临 2026-002 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次业绩说明会通过网络互动形式召开，公司将介绍2025年度的 经营成果及财务指标的具体情况，并在信息披露允许的范围内就投资者 普遍关注的问题进行交流。 会议召开时间：2026 年 3 月 30 日（星期一）下午 17:30-18:30 会议召开方式：通过上海证券交易所上证路演中心（以下简称上 证路演中心，网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/）进行网络互动。 投资者可于 2026 年 3 月 29 日（星期日）17:00 前登录上证路演 中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过中国石油天然气股 份有限公司（以下简称公司）邮箱 ir@petrochina.com.cn 进行提问。 二、说明会召开的时间、方式 （一）会议召开时间：2026年3月30日（星期一）下午17:30-18:30 （二）会议召 ...

文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 3月17日，中国石油天然气集团有限公司 2026年磷酸铁锂储能系统集中采购（带量 ）招标公告 发布。 招标人为中国石油天然气集团有限公 司。 本项目共8个标 包，合计总容量 772.5MWh ，并网模式均为跟网型： 0.5C：采购规模750MWh； | 标包 | 物资代码 | EMS个数 | 并网模式 | 倍率 | 预计 | 到度 | 项目地点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 容量 | 时间 | | | | 2.5MW/5MWh 1500Vdc 690Vac 0.5C 液冷 314Ah IP55 GB/T 36558 | 1 | 眼网型 | 0.5C | 5MWh | 6月1日 | 长庆油田 延安杏河 | | | 5MW/15MWh 1500Vdc 690Vac | | | | | | | | | 0.33C 液冷 ≥314Ah IP55 GB/T | 1 | | 0.33C | | | 长庆油田 | | 标包1 | | | 眼网型 | | 15MWh | 6月1日 | 庆阳环县 | ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业点评报告 2026-2027 年度中石油管道天然气购销合同 政策发布，销售价格同比持平 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 03 月 18 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 50% 2025/3/18 2025/7/17 2025/11/15 2026/3/16 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 2026-03-16 《地缘冲突+气温回暖，美气回落、欧 洲&中国气价大涨；重视资源价值首 华燃气+具备长协成本优势企业新奥 股份、新奥能源、九丰能源》 2026-03-08 | | 管制气 | | | 非管制气 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-2027年管道气合同方案 | | 特定地区 | ...

Bloomberg PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest natural gas supplier, will keep its contract prices largely unchanged this year to shield industrial consumers from surging global energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. The firm will retain last year’s upper price limit, a move that’s also designed to support longer-term growth of the domestic gas industry, according to Chinese consultancy, OilChem. Most Read from Bloomberg PetroChina did not immediately respond to calls seeking comment. The wo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - The ongoing US-Iran conflict highlights the importance of energy security, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the need for energy resource supply guarantees [1][10] - The "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are positioned as key players in domestic energy supply, with plans for significant capital expenditures and production increases [2][11] - The conflict threatens the supply of petrochemical raw materials, necessitating attention to state-owned refining enterprises like Huajin [3][13] - The rise in agricultural product prices due to the conflict underscores the importance of agricultural chemical products like methionine and vitamins [2][12] - The coal chemical industry is highlighted as a core direction for growth, benefiting from the current high oil prices [3][14] Summary by Sections Energy Security and Supply Chain - The US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt global energy supply chains, particularly affecting oil prices, which have seen significant increases [1][9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" stresses the need for a robust energy supply system, focusing on domestic production and strategic reserves [10] Domestic Energy Supply - The "Three Oil Giants" are expected to maintain high capital expenditures, with planned upstream capital expenditures of CNY 210 billion for China National Petroleum, CNY 72.9 billion for Sinopec, and CNY 130 billion for CNOOC in 2025 [2][11] - Production plans for 2025 indicate a year-on-year increase of 1.6% for China National Petroleum, 1.5% for Sinopec, and 5.9% for CNOOC [2][11] Petrochemical Raw Material Supply - The conflict has led to decreased transportation efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting the supply of petrochemical raw materials [3][13] - State-owned refining enterprises are expected to leverage their integrated supply chain advantages to ensure stable resource availability [3][13] Agricultural Chemical Products - The rise in food prices due to the conflict has elevated the importance of agricultural security, with a focus on chemical products like methionine [2][12] Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical sector is positioned as a key growth area, with advantages in cost and resource availability highlighted amid rising oil prices [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the oil industry, particularly highlighting companies like China National Petroleum Corporation and CNOOC as key players in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The oil market is influenced by three main attributes: commodity characteristics, geopolitical factors, and financial aspects. The price formation mechanism is complex, with supply and demand, geopolitical events, and dollar interest rates playing significant roles. The report indicates that the oil price has been trending downward in 2023 due to a loosening supply-demand balance [4]. - Supply is heavily concentrated in the Middle East, which holds nearly 60% of global reserves. Major suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia. The report notes that OPEC plays a crucial role in controlling international oil prices through production management [4][5]. - Demand for oil is closely tied to global economic growth, with the U.S., Europe, China, and India being the primary consumers. The report forecasts that by 2024, the demand shares will be 19.7% for the U.S., 15.9% for China, and 13.8% for Europe [5]. - The Strait of Hormuz is highlighted as a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, with potential disruptions leading to significant production cuts in Gulf countries. The report emphasizes that if the Strait remains blocked, the scale of production cuts and the difficulty of resuming production will increase rapidly [5]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical and Financial Impact on Oil Prices - The report discusses how geopolitical tensions and financial factors significantly influence oil prices, with recent conflicts causing rapid price increases. It emphasizes that while short-term fluctuations are common, the long-term price trends are primarily driven by supply-demand fundamentals [21][24]. Oil Supply Situation - The global distribution of oil reserves is uneven, with the Middle East holding a significant portion. The report states that as of 2024, OPEC countries will control 79.2% of global oil reserves, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela being the top three countries [33]. - The U.S. has become the largest oil producer due to the shale oil revolution, but production growth is slowing as companies focus on investment returns rather than volume [36][51]. Oil Demand Situation - The report indicates that oil demand is expected to grow primarily in developing countries, with projections for 2025 showing an increase in global oil demand. The U.S. and China are expected to remain the largest consumers, with significant shifts in consumption patterns due to economic and structural changes [87][93]. - The report also notes that the refining capacity in Europe is declining, while the U.S. maintains a stable demand for refined products, indicating a shift in the global refining landscape [93].