2026 年 3 月 15 日 行业研究 锚定供应链安全，筑牢能源安全底线 ——石油化工行业周报第 442 期（20260309—20260315） 要点 美伊冲突持续凸显能源安全重要性，"十五五"规划纲要强调能源资源供应 保障。本周美伊冲突持续，伊朗维持对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，截断中东能源出 口，原油供给端受到大幅度冲击，驱动油价宽幅上涨。3 月 13 日，我国"十 五五"规划纲要正式发布，"十五五"规划纲要第五十二章第二节指出，坚持 立足国内、补齐短板、多元保障、强化储备，加强能源产供储销体系建设，坚 持油气核心需求自主保障，加强能源资源开发国际合作，维护战略通道安全等。 今年以来国际局势动荡加剧，中东地区地缘冲突威胁全球能源运输战略通道， 全球能源供应链安全受到较大挑战，维护我国能源安全的重要性不断增强。 担当国内能源保供"顶梁柱"，"三桶油"战略价值凸显。作为我国能源保 供的主力军，"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支，在外部环境不确定性加剧、 油价面临大幅波动的背景下，"三桶油"将继续加强增储上产，中国石油、中 国石化、中国海油 25 年油气当量产量计划分别同比增长 1.6%、1.5%、5.9%。 "三桶油 ...

2026年03月13日 证券研究报告 | 原油行业分析框架 u 原油兼具大宗商品、地缘政治和金融三大属性，价格形成机制较为复杂。原油作为大宗商品，价格受供需、库存影响较大。地缘政治方面的战争及特殊事件会对 原油价格造成冲击。而原油多以美元进行支付，美元利率同样会影响原油价格。原油作为应用最广泛的大宗商品之一，任何"黑天鹅"事件都将对油价造成剧烈冲击， 但中长期视角看，原油价格中枢受供需基本面影响最大。2023年以来，原油供需基本面趋于宽松，油价中枢不断下行。 u 供给方面，中东地区储备占比接近60%，沙特阿拉伯、美国和俄罗斯是世界原油市场重要供应方。原油资源可根据地理位置、油质、开采难度等因素分为常规和 非常规两大类。中东地区坐拥丰富的常规石油资源，而美国则以非常规石油中的页岩油为主。OPEC是对国际原油价格影响最大的组织之一，其通过联合控制产量，进 而调控油价。美国通过"页岩油革命"成为全球第一大石油生产国，由于其资源劣质化较快，新油井的盈亏平衡成本不断走高，美国石油产量将下降。 u 需求方面，石油需求与全球经济增长高度相关，经济结构也对石油需求量有较大影响。宏观层面上，石油需求中长期与全球经济增长高度相关 ...

摩根大通发布研报称，列出在目前油价上升时期最具韧性的"赢家"股份(Winners of the Current Oil Price Rally)，只列其中港股，全部均予"增持"评级。该行予中国石油股份(00857)目标价13港元，中国宏桥 (01378)目标价40港元，中国铝业（601600）(02600)目标价16港元，兖矿能源（600188）(01171)目标价 12港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified resilient "winners" in the current oil price rally, specifically focusing on Hong Kong stocks, all of which are rated as "overweight" [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Target Prices - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) has a target price set at HKD 13 [1] - China Hongqiao Group Limited (01378) has a target price set at HKD 40 [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (02600) has a target price set at HKD 16 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (01171) has a target price set at HKD 12 [1]

恒指跌0.52%，恒生科技指数跌0.42%。理想汽车、宁德时代、地平线机器人跌幅靠前；中国神华涨逾2%，网易涨近2%，中国海洋石油、中国石油股份涨逾 1%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

PETROCHINA COMPANY LIMITED 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而産生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司 承董事會命 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司 公司秘書 王華 中國北京 2026 年 3 月 12 日 於本公告日，本公司董事會由戴厚良先生擔任董事長，由周心懷先生擔任副董事長及非執行董 事，由段良偉先生、周松先生及謝軍先生擔任非執行董事，由任立新先生、張道偉先生及宋大 勇先生擔任執行董事，由蔣小明先生、何敬麟先生、閻焱先生、劉曉蕾女士及張玉新先生擔任 獨立非執行董事。 （於中華人民共和國註册成立之股份有限公司） (股份代號：857) 董事會會議通知 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）僅此宣佈，董事會會 議將於二零二六年三月二十七日（星期五）在中華人民共和國（「中國」）北京市東城區東直 門北大街 9 號中國石油大廈舉行，藉以（其中包括）審議及批准本公司及其附屬公司截至二零 二五年十二月三十一日止之年度業 ...

（於中華人民共和國註册成立之股份有限公司） (股份代號：857) 董事會會議通知 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而産生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司 PETROCHINA COMPANY LIMITED 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）僅此宣佈，董事會會 議將於二零二六年三月二十七日（星期五）在中華人民共和國（「中國」）北京市東城區東直 門北大街 9 號中國石油大廈舉行，藉以（其中包括）審議及批准本公司及其附屬公司截至二零 二五年十二月三十一日止之年度業績及其發佈，以及考慮派發末期股息之建議。 承董事會命 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司 公司秘書 王華 中國北京 2026 年 3 月 12 日 於本公告日，本公司董事會由戴厚良先生擔任董事長，由周心懷先生擔任副董事長及非執行董 事，由段良偉先生、周松先生及謝軍先生擔任非執行董事，由任立新先生、張道偉先生及宋大 勇先生擔任執行董事，由蔣小明先生、何敬麟先生、閻焱先生、劉曉 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Oil and Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the impact of the Iran situation on the oil, natural gas, and chemical industries, with a comparison to the 1973 oil crisis [2][4] - The current oil crisis is characterized by external forces affecting a specific oil-producing country, Iran, which has limited transportation, leading to extreme market emotions [2][4] Key Points and Arguments Oil Price Predictions - The current oil price is expected to fluctuate between $70 and $90, with a risk premium compared to previous estimates of $60 [3][4] - The ability of Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz is not expected to last long, and the production capacity of surrounding oil-producing countries is not anticipated to decline significantly [3][4] - In extreme scenarios, if Iran's actions severely disrupt production, oil prices could exceed $100 in the medium term [4] Impact on Chinese Oil and Gas Companies - Chinese oil companies, such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), are expected to benefit from rising oil prices due to their production capabilities and low dependency on imports [5][6] - CNPC's dividend yield is projected to remain attractive even in recessionary conditions, with yields around 7% at oil prices between $75 and $80 [5] Chemical Industry Dynamics - The recent surge in oil and natural gas prices has led to rapid price increases in the global chemical sector, driven by both cost-push factors and supply chain disruptions [6][12] - China's chemical supply chain is relatively complete compared to overseas counterparts, particularly in Europe and Japan, but still faces challenges in crude oil supply [6][12] Supply Chain and Production Insights - China's refining capacity is projected to reach 737 million tons by 2025, with crude oil production at 217 million tons last year [7][8] - Approximately 50% of China's crude oil is imported, with potential disruptions from Middle Eastern suppliers impacting imports significantly [7][8] - The country has a strategic reserve that could sustain supply for 2-3 years under extreme conditions [7][8] Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to undergo a period of inventory adjustment, leading to a potential recovery in demand as global supply chains stabilize [14][19] - The crisis is likely to accelerate the transition to alternative energy sources and chemical products, benefiting companies involved in coal-based chemicals and renewable energy [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Investment in resilient supply chain companies, particularly in the coal chemical sector, is recommended due to their stability and growth potential [16][18] - Companies like Baofeng Energy and Luxi Chemical are highlighted as strong candidates for investment due to their robust supply chains and market positions [16][18] Other Important Insights - The potential for increased agricultural commodity prices due to supply chain disruptions in fertilizers and chemicals is noted, with China positioned to leverage its abundant resources [15][16] - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the long-term prospects of the Chinese chemical industry, with expectations of sustained growth and recovery following the current crisis [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) experienced a significant decline of 6.91% at the opening on March 10, 2023, trading at 1.428 yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) has a performance benchmark of the CSI All Share Energy Index [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 53.08% [1] - The fund's return over the past month is reported at 17.00% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the Energy ETF include: - China Shenhua down 4.09% [1] - China Petroleum down 5.73% [1] - China Petrochemical down 7.14% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 4.37% [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 9.99% [1] - Jereh Group up 0.03% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining down 5.42% [1] - China Coal Energy down 9.67% [1] - Guanghui Energy down 8.89% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal down 3.67% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The development of coalbed methane, particularly at the Daqi Gas Field, is crucial for increasing natural gas production in China and ensuring energy security, with significant strategic value for the country's energy independence [2][3]. Group 1: Daqi Gas Field Development - The Daqi Gas Field has achieved a daily gas production of over 1.1 million cubic meters and an annual production capacity exceeding 4 billion cubic meters, accounting for over 80% of the national coalbed methane output [2]. - The field has proven geological reserves of 400 billion cubic meters, and coalbed methane is a type of unconventional natural gas found in deep coal seams, typically buried deeper than 1,500 meters [2]. - China's deep coalbed methane resources are abundant, with estimates indicating that the resource volume exceeds 40 trillion cubic meters at depths of 2,000 meters, with approximately 12 trillion cubic meters being recoverable [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Coalbed Methane - The large-scale development of coalbed methane is seen as a strategic move for enhancing natural gas production and ensuring national energy security, as stated by Liu Hongtao, General Manager of PetroChina's Coalbed Methane Company [2]. - Prior to the 14th Five-Year Plan, traditional exploration theories regarded coal seams deeper than 1,500 meters as having low gas content and high development costs, leading to their classification as a "forbidden zone" for coalbed methane development [2]. - The successful commercial development of coalbed methane began with the Daqi 3-7 well in 2019, and by October 2021, the Jishen 6-7 well had tested a daily gas production of 101,000 cubic meters, marking a significant breakthrough in deep coalbed methane development [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for natural gas in China is projected to remain high, with consumption expected to reach 426.55 billion cubic meters by 2025, while domestic industrial natural gas production is estimated at 261.9 billion cubic meters, indicating a substantial supply gap [3]. - Coalbed methane is anticipated to become a key resource for natural gas production in the next 3 to 5 years, following tight sandstone gas and shale gas [3]. - Liu Hongtao emphasized that coalbed methane serves as a "new engine" for driving current performance growth for PetroChina and a "new high ground" for future strategic positioning, while also being a "new cornerstone" for enhancing national energy self-sufficiency [3].