股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 23.5 14.5 21.4 54.0 相对上证综指 26.0 20.3 22.4 36.9 发行股数 (百万) 183,020.98 流通股 (百万) 183,020.98 总市值 (人民币 百万) 2,276,780.96 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 3,688.23 主要股东 中国石油天然气集团有限公司（%） 82.19 (11%) 5% 22% 38% 54% 70% Mar-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 中国石油 上证综指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2026 年 3 月 30 日收市价为标准 石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 3 月 31 日 601857.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.44 板块评级:强于大市 石油石化：炼化及贸易 证券分析师：徐中良 zhongliang.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书 ...

中国石油（601857.SH）2025 年年报点评 石油龙头业绩稳健，绝对分红维持不变 glmszqdatemark 相关研究 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 周泰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110019 | | | 邮箱： | zhoutai@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 王姗姗 | | 执业证书： S0590525110021 | | | 邮箱： | wangshanshan_yj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 李航 | | 执业证书： S0590525110020 | | | 邮箱： | lihang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 卢佳琪 | | 执业证书： S0590525110022 | | | 邮箱： | lujiaqi@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -20% 13% 47% 80% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 中国石油 沪深300 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 2026 年 03 月 31 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价 ...

[Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 中国石油(601857.SH) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 证券研究报告 公司研究 ➢ 油价中枢下行，但公司全产业链抗风险能力突出。油价端，2025 年国 际油价在产油国增产、美国对等关税政策导致需求拖累等多因素影响 下震荡下跌。2025 年布伦特平均油价为 68 美元/桶，同比下跌 15%， 上游勘探开发板块盈利同比下滑，但炼化、成品油销售和天然气销售 板块盈利有所修复，公司业绩整体保持稳健。分板块盈利看，2025 年 公司油气及新能源、炼化及新材料、销售板块、天然气销售板块分别 实现经营利润人民币 1361、242、175、608 亿元，同比-236、+28、 +10、+68 亿元。2025 年公司自由现金流 1201.89 亿元，同比增长 15.2%。总体来看，由于 2025 年全年油价中枢下移，公司上游勘探开 发业务短期承压，但下游业务整体盈利有所改善，公司业绩仍保持稳 健，全产业链抗风险能力突出。 ➢ 油气产量再创新高，新能源业务保持高速增长。油气方面， ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 中国石油(601857.SH) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_A 刘红光 uthor 石化行业联席首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [油气龙头经营业绩稳健， Table_Title] 全产业链抗风险能力突出 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件： ummary] 2025 年 3 月 29 日晚，中国石油发布 2025 年年度报告。2025 年公 司实现营业收入 28,644.69 亿元，同比下降 2.50%；实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved total operating revenue of 286,446.9 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.50% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15,730.2 million yuan, down 4.48% year-on-year - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 69,521.3 million yuan, an increase of 2.19% year-on-year but a decrease of 3.33% quarter-on-quarter - The net profit for Q4 2025 was 3,102.3 million yuan, down 2.72% year-on-year and down 26.64% quarter-on-quarter [2][14] Financial Summary - Total operating revenue for 2025 was 286,446.9 million yuan, with a projected increase to 309,075.7 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth of 7.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 190,343 million yuan in 2026, a growth of 21.0% from 2025 - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.04 yuan in 2026, up from 0.86 yuan in 2025 - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 11.3% in 2026, compared to 9.9% in 2025 [3][12] Business Segments - Oil and Gas and New Energy: In Q4 2025, revenue from this segment was 202,418 million yuan, down 28.83% year-on-year, with operating profit dropping 68.36% year-on-year due to a significant decline in Brent crude oil prices - Natural Gas Sales: Revenue in Q4 2025 was 172,165 million yuan, up 18.45% year-on-year, with operating profit increasing by 29.88% due to rising domestic natural gas sales and effective cost control [18][25] - Refining and Chemical: This segment reported revenue of 25,199.1 million yuan in Q4 2025, down 31.25% year-on-year, but operating profit improved by 55.60% due to lower raw material costs and product structure optimization [22] Market Data - The target price for the company's stock is set at 13.79 yuan, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5 times the projected book value per share (BPS) of 9.19 yuan in 2026 [5][29] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 227.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 18.3 billion shares [6]

Financial Performance - PetroChina reported a net profit attributable to its owners of 157.32 billion yuan ($22.75 billion) for 2025, a decrease of approximately 4.47% compared to 164.68 billion yuan ($23.82 billion) in 2024 [1] - The company's revenue for 2025 was 2,864.47 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of about 2.5% from 2,937.9 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Free cash flows increased significantly by 15.18%, reaching 120.19 billion yuan in 2025, up from 104.35 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Production and Operations - PetroChina's oil and gas production reached 1,841.9 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, marking a 2.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The company processed 1.38 billion barrels of crude oil and produced 117 million tonnes of refined products in the refining and chemicals sector [2] - The output of chemical commodity products increased by 2.7% to 40.03 million tonnes [3] Sales and Market Performance - In marketing and sales, PetroChina achieved sales volumes of 160.81 million tonnes of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, reflecting a 1.1% increase from the previous year [3] - Natural gas sales rose by 7%, reaching 314.71 billion cubic meters [3] Strategic Initiatives - In 2026, PetroChina will implement the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on becoming a leading integrated energy and chemical company [4] - The company aims to adapt to global energy transition and market changes through strategies in innovation, resources, market expansion, internationalization, and green development [4] - PetroChina plans to enhance market analysis, optimize production, and improve cost management to boost the efficiency of its oil and gas operations [4] Investment in Innovation - Technological innovation is a key focus for PetroChina, with an investment of 7.25 billion yuan in research and development, representing 1% of its revenue [3] - The company intends to develop new productive forces and accelerate growth in emerging sectors like new energies and materials [5]

ANNUAL RESULTS PRESENTATION M A R C H 3 0 , 2 0 2 6 DISCLAIMER This presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. These statements are generally indicated by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "estimate", "plan", "project", "target", "may", "will" or other similar words that express an indication of actions or results of actions that may or are expected to occur in the future. You should not place undue reliance on these ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A and H shares of the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2,864.5 billion RMB for 2025, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion RMB, down 4.5% year-on-year [1] - The company’s Q4 revenue was 695.2 billion RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter change of +2.2% and a year-on-year change of -3.3% [1] - The dividend per share for the year is set at 0.25 RMB, leading to a total cash dividend payout ratio of 54.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The report anticipates an increase in oil prices due to geopolitical factors, alongside continued growth in the company's natural gas business, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [6] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s crude oil production increased by 0.7% to 948 million barrels, while the average selling price decreased by 14.2% to 64.11 USD per barrel [2] - The natural gas sales volume rose by 4.5% to 5,363.2 billion cubic feet, with unit operating costs remaining stable at 12.04 USD per barrel [2] - The operating profit from the oil and gas segment decreased by 14.8% to 136.07 billion RMB due to falling international oil prices [2] Refining and Chemical Business - The company processed 1,375.9 million barrels of crude oil, a slight decrease of 0.2%, with gasoline and diesel production down by 5.7% and 3.2%, respectively [3] - The refining segment's operating profit increased by 13.4% to 24.25 billion RMB, driven by higher refining margins [3] - Key projects in refining and chemical transformation are progressing steadily, including upgrades at Jilin and Guangxi Petrochemical [3] Sales and Marketing Performance - Total refined oil sales reached 16,081 million tons, a slight increase of 1.1%, while domestic sales fell by 0.4% [4] - The marketing segment's operating profit grew by 6.4% to 17.55 billion RMB, attributed to increased profits from LNG and charging services [4] Natural Gas Segment - The company sold 3,147 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, with domestic sales up by 5.6% [5] - The natural gas segment's operating profit rose by 12.6% to 60.8 billion RMB, driven by effective cost control and optimized resource allocation [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects crude oil prices to rise to 84, 75, and 70 USD per barrel for 2026-2028, respectively, and raises the net profit forecast for 2026 to 199.1 billion RMB [6] - The target prices for A and H shares are set at 15.81 RMB and 13.63 HKD, respectively, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5x for A shares and 11.0x for H shares [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A and H shares of the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2,864.5 billion RMB for 2025, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion RMB, down 4.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s Q4 revenue was 695.2 billion RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter change of +2.2% and a year-on-year change of -3.3% [1] - The dividend per share for the year is set at 0.25 RMB, leading to a total cash dividend payout ratio of 54.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The report anticipates an increase in oil prices due to geopolitical factors, which may elevate the mid-term oil price average [6] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s crude oil production increased by 0.7% to 948 million barrels, while the average selling price decreased by 14.2% to 64.11 USD per barrel [2] - The natural gas sales volume rose by 4.5% to 5,363.2 billion cubic feet, with a stable unit operating cost of 12.04 USD per barrel [2] - The refining segment saw a profit increase of 13.4% to 24.25 billion RMB, driven by improved refining margins [3] - The total sales volume of refined oil was 16,081 million tons, with domestic sales slightly declining by 0.4% [4] Natural Gas Segment Performance - The company sold 3,147 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, with domestic sales up by 5.6% [5] - The natural gas segment's operating profit grew by 12.6% to 60.8 billion RMB due to effective cost control and optimized resource procurement [5] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects crude oil prices for 2026-2028 at 84/75/70 USD per barrel, with net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 raised to 199.1 billion RMB and 194.5 billion RMB, respectively [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is 1.09 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.5 for A shares and 11.0 for H shares [6] - The target prices are set at 15.81 RMB for A shares and 13.63 HKD for H shares, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Petroleum, with current prices at 12.07 CNY and 10.97 HKD respectively [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 28,645 billion CNY in 2025, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,573 billion CNY, down 4.5% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights the resilience of the company's integrated business model in the face of fluctuating oil prices, with a significant improvement in cash flow, achieving a net operating cash flow of 4,125 billion CNY, up 1.5% year-on-year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6,952 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3%. The net profit for the same quarter was 310 billion CNY, down 2.7% year-on-year and 26.6% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The upstream business was impacted by falling oil prices, resulting in an operating profit of 1,361 billion CNY, down 14.8% year-on-year. However, the natural gas sales business saw an operating profit of 608 billion CNY, up 12.6% year-on-year [7][8]. Segment Analysis - The upstream segment focused on cost reduction and increasing reserves, with a total oil and gas equivalent production of 1,842 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [8]. - The natural gas sales segment reported a significant profit increase, driven by higher sales volumes and effective cost control, achieving a profit of 608 billion CNY, with sales volume reaching 3,147 billion cubic meters, up 7.0% year-on-year [9]. - The refining and chemical segment achieved an operating profit of 243 billion CNY, up 13.4% year-on-year, despite challenges in the chemical market [10]. Shareholder Returns - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.25 CNY per share, maintaining the highest level of absolute dividends in history, with a total payout of 860.2 billion CNY and a payout ratio of 54.7% [12]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a 2026 upstream capital expenditure budget of 220.8 billion CNY, a 7.7% increase from 2025, to ensure growth in production and reserves [13]. - The report emphasizes the strategic value of the company in energy supply security amid geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts affecting oil supply routes [13]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 1,902 billion CNY, 1,959 billion CNY, and 2,018 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an upward revision due to recent geopolitical events impacting oil prices [14][15].