证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025 年蒙煤电子竞拍梳理 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 70.69 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.81 美元/桶（+7.3%）；WTI 原油期货结算价为 65.21 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.14 美元/桶（+6.78%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.68 美元/百万英热，较上周 下降 0.13 美元/百万英热（-1.11%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 40.65 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.28 欧元/兆瓦时（+3.24%）；美国 HH 天然气期 货结算价为 4.42 美元/百万英热，较上周下降 0.94 美元/百万英热（-17.5%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 101.5 美元/吨，较上周 上涨 3 美元/吨（+3.05%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 116.75 美 元/吨，较上周上涨 5.25 美元/吨（+4.71%）；IPE 南非理查兹湾煤炭期货 ...

每经AI快讯，港股煤炭股午后走强。截至发稿，中国秦发(00866.HK)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展 (01277.HK)涨8.18%，报1.72港元；兖矿能源(01171.HK)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华(01088.HK)涨 3.62%，报43.54港元；中煤能源(01898.HK)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 ...

浙商证券（601878）指出，展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上， 价格有望抬升，叠加成本下行，预计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较 大。年初至今，焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨，焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位，预计一季度 业绩显著改善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司，未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。 煤炭股午后走强，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展(01277)涨8.18%，报 1.72港元；兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨3.62%， 报43.54港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 华源证券发布研报称，2023年以来，煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势，2025Q3是除2023Q4之外，少 有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4 板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上，2026年1 ...

浙商证券指出，展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上，价格有望抬 升，叠加成本下行，预计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较大。年初至 今，焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨，焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位，预计一季度业绩显著改 善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司，未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股午后走强，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展 (01277)涨8.18%，报1.72港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华(01088)涨3.62%，报 43.54港元；中煤能源(01898)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 华源证券发布研报称，2023年以来，煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势，2025Q3是除2023Q4之外，少 有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4 板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上，2026年1月初，部分省 份推动煤炭部分保供产能退出，据 ...

信达证券表示，总体上，能源大通胀背景下，该行认为未来3-5年煤炭供需偏紧的格局仍未改变，优质 煤炭企业依然具有高壁垒、高现金、高分红、高股息的属性，叠加煤价筑底推动板块估值重塑，板块投 资攻守兼备且具有高性价比，短期板块回调后已凸显出较高的投资价值，再度建议重点关注现阶段煤炭 的配置机遇。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00866 | 中国泰发 | 4.050 | 10.05% | | 01277 | 力量发展 | 1.660 | 4.40% | | 00975 | MONGOL MIN | 13.600 | 4.29% | | 01393 | 恒鼎实业 | 0.062 | 3.33% | | 01088 | 中国神华 | 42.960 | 2.24% | | 01171 | 究矿能源 | 11.300 | 2.26% | | 03668 | 兖煤澳大利亚 | 30.820 | 1.85% | | 01898 | 中煤能源 | 11.180 | 1.45% | | 01878 | 南戈壁 | 2.120 | 2.42% | | 00 ...

Group 1 - The coal stocks in the Hong Kong market are mostly rising, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) increased by 4.13%, reaching HKD 42.38 [1] - Yanzhou Coal (01171.HK) rose by 2.79%, trading at HKD 11.43 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) saw a 2.55% increase, priced at HKD 11.28 [1] - China Qinfa (00866.HK) gained 1.56%, with a share price of HKD 3.26 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by increased demand due to cold weather and tightening supply conditions, suggesting a favorable investment outlook for quality coal companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Major coal stocks have seen significant gains, with China Shenhua up 4.13% to HKD 42.38, Yanzhou Coal up 2.79% to HKD 11.43, China Coal up 2.55% to HKD 11.28, and China Qinfa up 1.56% to HKD 3.26 [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - A cold wave has led to lower temperatures in central and eastern regions, contributing to increased coal demand [1] - The average daily coal output from the four ports in the Bohai Rim region reached 1.682 million tons, an increase of 142,000 tons (9.19%) from the previous week, although it represents a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [1] - As of January 23, port inventories stood at 26.28 million tons, down 906,000 tons (3.33%) week-on-week, but up 3.48% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The tightening supply-demand balance in the coal market is expected to persist over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies maintaining high barriers to entry, strong cash flow, and attractive dividends [1] - The recent price stabilization in coal is anticipated to reshape sector valuations, making coal investments appealing, especially after recent market corrections [1]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

Group 1 - The coal sector in Hong Kong is experiencing increased activity, with notable stock price rises for companies such as Strength Development (up 3.3%), Yancoal Australia (up 2.8%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (up 2.6%) [1] - According to a report by Founder Securities, the tightening of supply in the coal industry is becoming a key investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to reverse as policies to restrict production capacity continue to be implemented until 2026 [1] - Companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, are expected to have stable performance, while undervalued stocks like Yanzhou Coal (Hong Kong) and China Coal Energy (Hong Kong) may see valuation recovery if coal prices remain high [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, coal stocks have been negatively impacted by declining coal prices, but the pessimistic outlook has significantly eased following the issuance of Document No. 108 [1] - The trend of reducing competition remains unchanged, and there are expectations for improved performance in the fourth quarter; if prices maintain high levels, there is potential for performance recovery in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The majority of Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced an increase, with Feishang Non-Ferrous Coal (01738.HK) rising over 33% [1] - Shougang Resources (00639.HK) saw an increase of over 8% [1] - China Qinfa (00866.HK) rose more than 5% [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) both increased by nearly 4% [1]