格隆汇10月24日丨中国秦发(00866.HK)公告，董事会欣然宣布，SDE(公司的非全资附属公司)与浙江能 源亚太订立供煤协议，内容有关浙江能源亚太向SDE购买煤炭。 原预期浙江能源将与SDE订立供煤协议，为期20年。然而，订约方于承诺订立长期协议前需要更多时间 评估其年度产能。因此，订约方于现阶段决定订立较短年期的供煤协议。透过订立供煤协议，集团将因 浙江能源的控股公司国有发电厂的持续需求而拥有稳定的收入来源。 ...

中 國 秦 發 集 團 有 限 公 司 CHINA QINFA GROUP LIMITED （ 於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號︰00866） 關連交易 香 港 交易 及 結 算 所 有限 公 司 和 香港 聯 合 交 易 所有 限 公 司 對 本公 佈 的 內 容概 不負責， 對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明， 並明確表示概不就因本 公 佈 全部 或 任 何 部 分內 容 而 產 生或 因 依 賴 該 等內 容 而 引 致 的任 何 損 失 承擔 任何責任。 供煤協議 董 事 會 欣 然 宣 佈 ， SDE（ 本 公 司 的 非 全 資 附 屬 公 司 ）與 浙 江 能 源 亞 太 訂 立 供煤協議，內容有關浙江能源亞太向SDE購買煤炭。 上市規則的涵義 於 本 公 佈 日 期 ， 由 於 浙 江 能 源 亞 太 為 力 遠（ 本 公 司 的 間 接 非 全 資 附 屬 公 司 ）的主要股東，故其為本公司附屬公司層面的關連人士。因此，供煤協 議的訂立及其項下擬進行的交易構成上市規則第14A章項下本公司的關連 交易。 – 1 – 供煤協議 由於(i)浙江能源亞太為本公司附屬公司層面的關連人士；(i ...

Group 1 - The coal sector is regaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics and strong cash flow, making it a potential target for "high-low cut" funds [1] - Coal prices and indices have performed well since October, driven by supply constraints from production checks and increased coal demand due to temperature fluctuations [2] - The coal sector is currently undervalued, with a demand for price recovery, particularly for companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [2] Group 2 - Future coal inventory demand is expected to grow, with limited supply increases, leading to a strong coal price outlook for Q4 [3] - The coal sector is projected to see renewed market interest, particularly in coal, banking, and agriculture, as these sectors are expected to perform well in Q4 [4] - The investment value of leading coal companies is highlighted due to their high dividends and strong cash flow, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coking Coal [5] Group 3 - The target price for thermal coal has been raised to 750-800 RMB/ton due to sustained demand and supply constraints [6] - The likelihood of a "La Niña" phenomenon this winter could lead to increased natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, prompting interest in natural gas-related companies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Insights - India is signing more coal power procurement agreements to meet the growing electricity demand, with over 17GW of coal power capacity entering various stages of contract processes [2][3]. - The report highlights the expected increase in coal power capacity in India from 210GW to 307GW by 2035, a growth of 46% [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain companies in the coal sector, recommending investments in companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Jin Control Coal [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with European ARA port coal prices rising to $96 per ton (+6.19%) and Newcastle port coal prices reaching $111.45 per ton (+6.60%) [1][34]. - India plans to sign at least 7GW of coal power procurement agreements in the coming months to address peak electricity demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, Jin Control Coal, and China Shenhua, with a focus on companies showing strong performance and potential for growth [3][6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy Chemical for future growth opportunities [3]. Industry Trends - The coal mining industry is expected to experience a rebound in demand, driven by India's increasing reliance on coal for electricity generation [3][37]. - The report indicates that despite the push for renewable energy, coal will remain a significant part of India's energy mix for the foreseeable future [3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on October 16, with the Hang Seng Index slightly down by 0.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.18% [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced weakness, with Xiaomi down by 3.6%, Baidu, Meituan, and Tencent Holdings each down over 1%, while JD.com, Kuaishou, and Alibaba also saw slight declines [2][3][4]. - The overall performance of the technology sector was negatively impacted, with significant declines in stocks related to electric vehicles, robotics, and semiconductor industries [2][5][7]. Electric Vehicle Sector - The electric vehicle sector faced a downturn, with NIO dropping nearly 9% and other companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, and BYD also experiencing declines [5][6]. Education Sector - The education sector showed strong performance, with companies like Think Academy seeing a remarkable increase of 26.5% due to plans to raise approximately HKD 241 million for future AI projects [9][10]. Apple-Related Stocks - Apple-related stocks performed well, with BYD Electronics rising nearly 5% following discussions between Apple's CEO Tim Cook and Chinese officials regarding business development in China [11][12]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks saw gains, with China Qinfa up over 8% as demand for coal increased due to seasonal factors [13]. Shipping Sector - The shipping sector was active, with companies like Orient Overseas International and COSCO Shipping Holdings rising nearly 4% following the announcement of new fees for ships from U.S. ports [14]. Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector experienced growth, with companies like 3SBio and Innovent Biologics rising nearly 6% ahead of a significant conference in Berlin [16][17]. Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks were active, with China Life rising nearly 5% following positive earnings forecasts from major players in the sector [18][20]. IPO Activity - The recent IPO of Cloudwalk saw a significant increase of 26.05% on its first day of trading, reflecting strong market interest [21]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong stock market may experience wide fluctuations in the future, with a focus on sectors such as precious metals and AI-related industries due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [23].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on October 16, with the Hang Seng Index slightly down by 0.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.18% [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced a downturn, with Xiaomi down by 3.6%, Baidu, Meituan, and Tencent Holdings each down over 1%, while JD.com, Kuaishou, and Alibaba also saw slight declines [2][3][4]. - The overall performance of the technology sector was weak, contributing to the decline of the Hang Seng Tech Index [2][3]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - The new energy vehicle sector faced significant declines, with NIO down nearly 9% and other companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, and BYD also experiencing losses [5][6]. - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicated that retail sales of new energy vehicles in October were 367,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1% [6]. Education Sector - The education sector showed strong performance, with companies like Think Academy seeing a remarkable increase of 26.5% in stock price, driven by plans to raise approximately HKD 241 million for future AI projects [9][10]. - The sector's rebound is attributed to positive policy signals and the adoption of AI technology by educational companies [10]. Apple Concept Stocks - Apple-related stocks performed well, with BYD Electronics rising nearly 5% following discussions between Apple's CEO Tim Cook and China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding business development in China [11][12]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks saw gains, with China Qinfa up over 8%, driven by increased demand for coal as winter approaches and a report indicating a rise in coal production [13][14]. Shipping Sector - The shipping sector was active, with stocks like Orient Overseas International and COSCO Shipping rising nearly 4% following the announcement of a special port fee for ships from the U.S. [14][16]. Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector experienced growth, with companies like 3SBio and Innovent Biologics rising nearly 6%, ahead of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting [16][17]. Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks were active, with China Life Insurance rising nearly 5% after a positive earnings forecast from New China Life Insurance [18][19]. IPO Activity - Cloudwalk Technology debuted on the Hong Kong stock market, closing up 26.05% with a market capitalization of HKD 8.281 billion, following a highly oversubscribed IPO [20][23]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the Hong Kong stock market to experience wide fluctuations, with a focus on sectors such as precious metals and the AI industry due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade issues [25].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues its upward trend, driven by weather conditions and industry production adjustments, with several coal stocks showing significant gains on October 16, 2023 [2][3]. Weather Impact - A strong cold front is affecting regions from Huaxi to Huanghuai, with increased rainfall expected, particularly from the night of October 16 to the following day. This cold air mass is likely to lead to lower temperatures across most of the country, potentially increasing coal demand during the winter months [3]. - Analysts suggest a higher probability of a cold winter due to a possible double La Niña effect, which would further support coal demand [3]. Industry Adjustments - The coking industry has initiated production cuts to boost coal stock performance. A meeting held by the China Coking Industry Association resulted in a decision to raise prices for various types of coke and to recommend a production cut of over 30% across the industry [4]. - The meeting emphasized maintaining reasonable profit levels and healthy development within the industry, with a focus on not producing or selling at a loss [4]. Market Outlook - Multiple institutions express optimism for the coal sector in the fourth quarter. Fangzheng Securities notes that supply-side tightening is becoming a key investment theme, with expectations that the oversupply situation will gradually improve [5]. - Guosen Securities anticipates a rebound in coal prices in the second half of 2025, which would enhance coal company profits, and they see potential for price increases in the fourth quarter [5]. - The coal market's supply-demand dynamics are improving, with a reported 3.9 billion tons of raw coal production in August, a 3.2% year-on-year decline, indicating a tightening supply [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong coal sector has seen a collective rise in stock prices, driven by increased demand for thermal coal due to a significant drop in temperatures in northern regions, indicating a boost in downstream coal inventory replenishment needs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Coal Energy (中煤能源) rose over 6% to a price of 10.980 [1] - China Qinfa (中国秦发) increased nearly 5% to a price of 3.130 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (兖矿能源) saw a rise of over 3% to a price of 11.350 [1] - China Shenhua (中国神华) increased by over 2% to a price of 40.700 [1] - Other companies like Power Development (力量发展) and Yancoal Australia (兖煤澳大利亚) also experienced gains, with increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the cumulative national raw coal production from January to August 2025 reached 3.165 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1] - Due to stricter safety regulations and capacity checks, it is expected that coal production will not see a large-scale release in the fourth quarter [1] - Prices for thermal coal and coking coal have rebounded quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for coal companies' performance in the fourth quarter [1]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, with Mongol Mining up 10.03% to HKD 13.6, Shougang Resources up 5.28% to HKD 2.99, and China Qinfa up 4.47% to HKD 3.04 [1] - Guosen Securities reports that coal prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, improving coal company profits, with the fourth quarter showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply expectations [1] - After the holiday, coal prices quickly stopped falling and rebounded, indicating a sustained expectation of supply tightening, which raises the price floor for coal [1] Group 2 - Datong Securities notes that during the holiday period and after, continuous rain has affected coal supply, with maintenance on the Daqin Railway and the start of winter storage supporting short-term coal price strength [1] - For coking coal, downstream iron and steel production remains high, but coking enterprises are hesitant to raise prices, leading to a cautious outlook, while October remains a peak demand season [1] - The total inventory of coal, coke, and steel is at a low level, providing support for coal prices, with coking coal expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term [1]

Core Insights - The coking coal sector experienced inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints due to maintenance at some mines and a seven-day closure of three major ports for Mongolian coal, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventories [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits also saw a recovery alongside price rebounds [1] - The high iron and steel production levels in the domestic "anti-involution" environment may support a tight supply-demand balance in the coking coal industry, potentially stabilizing prices and restoring profit margins for Mongolian coal trading companies [1] - CITIC Securities reported that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters; coking coal and anthracite companies show greater earnings elasticity, while the thermal coal sector remains the largest profit contributor [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons; if the anti-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] - The current policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations in the sector are improving, and the sector may see sustained excess returns with market style rotation or policy catalysts in the future [1] Related Hong Kong Stocks - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]