龙湖集团 20251207 摘要 龙湖地产作为老牌房企，业务涵盖开发、运营和服务，布局一二线城市， 财务管理审慎，管控能力强，展现出较强的韧性。 龙湖商业投资板块是其差异化优势，截至 2025 年底运营 89 座商场， 总面积超 940 万平方米，选址集中于一二线城市 TOD 项目，具有显著 的区位优势和持续外延式增长能力。 龙湖商业租金坪效在 2025 年上半年跌幅收窄，表明进入效益兑现阶段， 老项目升级改造推动内生成长，管理优势显著，同城平均租金水平优于 全市平均水平。 C-REITs 为龙湖商业地产带来重估空间，消费 REITs 股息率与当前账面 估值资本化率存在差距，若以接近 5%的资本化率重估，股权价值可达 1993 亿以上。 龙湖智创生活第三方项目占比达 60%，非住宅业务占比 30%，科技赋 能提升运营效率，毛利率远高于行业平均水平，设施管理市场空间广阔。 龙湖智创生活智慧制造业务新增签约面积同比增长 87%，行业排名第五， 与央国企、地方平台等合作广泛，代建业务具备全业态和全流程优势。 龙湖融资状况健康，有息负债持续下降，现金流表现良好，维持三大红 线绿档，融资成本降低，债务压力已过，未来业绩 ...

核心内容 合约销售 30家重点上市房企有7家单月销售环比增长 1、合约销售：30家重点上市房企有7家单月销售环比增长 2、企业拿地：头部央国企核心城市补仓，整体投资保持谨慎 3、企业融资：单月总量环比回升，成本持续走低 4、组织动态：龙湖华发等多家房企精简层级，提升效能 ◎ 文 / CRIC研究中心 0 1 | 企业简称 | 2025年11月 | 車月环比 | 2025年1-11月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 車月金额 | | 累计金额 | 月均销售金额 | | 保利发展 | 179.5 | -15. 0% | 2408. 0 | 218.9 | | 中海地产 | 221. 4 | 18. 6% | 2113.0 | 192. 1 | | 未润量瓶 | 230. 0 | 51. 3% | 1926. 0 | 175. 1 | | 招商蛇口 | 144.5 | -6. 0% | 1705. 2 | 155.0 | | 绿城中国 | 125.0 | 0. 0% | 1329.0 | 120. 8 | | 万科地产 | 94.2 | -34. 4% | 1240. ...

Group 1: Sales Performance - In November 2025, 30 key listed real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 162.36 billion yuan, with a cumulative performance of 1,981.13 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [1] - Among the 30 companies, seven reported month-on-month sales growth in November, with China Resources Land showing the highest growth rate [1] - Cumulatively, China Jinmao and Greenland Holdings recorded sales growth from January to November 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Real estate companies are adopting a cautious investment approach, focusing on existing project development and sales rather than acquiring new land [5] - In November, the total investment amount for the monitored 30 companies was approximately 23.4 billion yuan, with a land acquisition area of 1.31 million square meters [5] - 13 companies reported new land reserves, with major acquisitions by state-owned enterprises like China Overseas Land and Investment and Greenland China [5] Group 3: Financing Activities - In November 2025, the total financing amount for 65 typical real estate companies reached 43.279 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 24% [8] - The cumulative financing amount from January to November 2025 was 390.236 billion yuan, with domestic debt financing accounting for 26.126 billion yuan and foreign debt financing increasing significantly [8] - The average financing cost for new bond financing was 2.87%, showing a decrease compared to 2024 [8][10] Group 4: Organizational Adjustments - Many real estate companies are undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance efficiency, with Dragon Lake Group merging regional operations to form a new business structure [12] - New City Holdings is splitting its light asset business into two companies to capture the construction market, while also restructuring its real estate development division [13] - CIFI Group has implemented a significant organizational overhaul, consolidating multiple divisions into three major regional business units to focus on core markets [14]

核心内容 ◎ 文 / CRIC研究中心 | 企业简称 | 2025年11月 | 車月环比 | 2025年1-11月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 車月金额 | | 累计金额 | 月均销售金额 | | 保利发展 | 179.5 | -15.0% | 2408. 0 | 218.9 | | 中海地产 | 221. 4 | 18. 6% | 2113.0 | 192. 1 | | 未润置矩 | 230. 0 | 51. 3% | 1926. 0 | 175. 1 | | 招商蛇口 | 144.5 | -6. 0% | 1705. 2 | 155.0 | | 绿城中国 | 125.0 | 0. 0% | 1329. 0 | 120. 8 | | 万科地产 | 94.2 | -34. 4% | 1240. 8 | 112.8 | | 建发房产 | 60. 0 | -45. 2% | 1125. 1 | 102. 3 | | 中国金茂 | 80. 0 | -33. 3% | 1006. 8 | 91.5 | | 越秀地产 | 51.0 | -58. 5% | 972. 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, particularly focusing on the shopping center industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the consumption industry and shopping center sector in China still have significant growth potential, driven by an expected increase in total consumption and a structural recovery [4][5]. - Leading commercial companies have achieved stable same-store growth and expansion through operational alpha, which may lead to a revaluation of IP (Intellectual Property) values [4][5]. - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. commercial real estate market, highlighting that during five interest rate cut cycles, commercial real estate indices consistently yielded positive returns, significantly outperforming other asset classes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The domestic consumption sector remains under pressure, with retail sales growth gradually recovering to +4.3% as of October 2025, while CPI remains low at +0.2% [14][21]. - Compared to the U.S. and Japan during their real estate crises, China's consumption resilience is still relatively strong [14][21]. - Long-term growth potential exists in the consumption sector, particularly in shopping centers, as GDP per capita and retail sales per capita are expected to rise [28][31]. Mid-level Perspective - As of Q3 2025, the total area of centralized commercial space in China reached 661 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of +4.4% [49]. - The number of new openings has decreased, but the proportion of reopened projects after adjustments has increased, indicating a shift in strategy [53]. - The report notes that 57% of existing projects have been open for over five years, highlighting the importance of effective asset management [53]. Micro Perspective - Leading companies in the sector exhibit significant operational efficiency, with top firms showing a concentration of 19% in opening area as of 2024 [4][5]. - Key companies are expected to see a revaluation of their IP, with potential increases of 39% for China Resources Land and 33% for New World Development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the average operating profit margin for IP is between 55% and 84%, with dividend yields for major companies exceeding 5% [4][5]. U.S. Market Review - The report highlights that during five interest rate cut cycles, the NCREIF commercial real estate price index achieved an average return of 31%, second only to gold [4][5]. - The long-term same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in the U.S. has been stable, correlating positively with GDP growth [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - The report suggests that the high barriers to entry in commercial operations will enhance the competitive advantage of leading firms, especially as the "residential development supports commercial" model weakens [4][5]. - The introduction of C-REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is expected to further support the revaluation of commercial assets [4][5].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 龍湖集團控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00960 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 7,041,631,192 | | 0 | | 7,041,631,192 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 7,041,631,192 | | 0 | | 7,041,631,192 | 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China Digital Intelligence Conference opened in Beijing, focusing on the theme "AI + Restructuring Everything" and highlighting the transformative impact of AI on daily life, akin to the mobile internet revolution 15 years ago [1][2] Group 1: AI Transformation - The new wave of AI-driven transformation differs from traditional digitalization, emphasizing individual productivity enhancement rather than top-down management approaches [1][2] - AI transformation is based on frontline scenarios, which is essential for digital upgrades in enterprises [1][2] - An example from Longfor Group illustrates that AI can optimize property management, saving millions in costs through data analysis [1][2] Group 2: Company Profile and Achievements - Qian Ding Data Science, a high-tech company incubated by Longfor Group, has over a thousand R&D team members and serves more than 3,600 enterprises by integrating AI, BIM, IoT, and digital twin technologies [3] - Qian Ding Data Science won the "AI Intelligent Agent Innovation Product" award at the conference, with its AI platform achieving over 95% accuracy in vertical field algorithm models [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The application rate of new intelligent terminals and agents is expected to exceed 70% by 2027, with China fully entering an intelligent society by 2035 [3] - Companies and individuals are eager to acquire AI capabilities to enhance productivity, but the realization of AI's value may take 5 to 10 years [3][4] - High-quality data is crucial for training algorithms and achieving meaningful AI transformation, indicating that results are not immediate [3][4] Group 4: Human-AI Collaboration - AI is not a panacea and has specific strengths; it is not in opposition to humans but rather aims for a synergy between human and machine capabilities [4] - Longfor Group has initiated multiple AI training sessions for its employees, including middle and senior management, to enhance AI proficiency within the organization starting in 2024 [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.36% [1] - Most property stocks declined, with Vanke Enterprises dropping over 7%, Shimao Group falling over 6%, and Longfor Group decreasing over 3% [1] - Tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Xiaomi rising over 2% and Alibaba falling over 2% [1] Group 2 - Pop Mart surged over 6%, and Zhufeng Gold increased over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate sector is experiencing a decline, with several major companies reporting significant stock price drops [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Vanke Enterprises has seen a decline of over 5% in its stock price [2] - Shimao Group's stock has dropped by more than 3% [2] - CIFI Holdings, Longfor Group, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group have all experienced declines exceeding 2% [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the launch of promotional activities at Beijing Longfor Tianjie, offering discounts for consumers using UnionPay mobile payments [9][11][17] - Longfor Commercial has established a presence in multiple areas of Beijing, with eight Tianjie locations across six districts, aiming to enhance consumer experiences through new brands and spaces [9][11] - The Tianjie shopping spaces are designed not only for retail but also for emotional value experiences, combining quality retail, dining, entertainment, and lifestyle offerings [11][12] Group 2 - The promotional offer includes a discount of 30 yuan for purchases over 200 yuan, available once a week until March 31, 2026 [12][17] - The initiative aims to adapt to changing consumer trends by continuously updating offerings and enhancing the shopping experience [11][12] - Consumers can enjoy the latest trends and popular dining options while benefiting from the UnionPay discount during their visits [11][17]