Core Viewpoint - The primary focus for real estate companies in 2025 is inventory reduction, with various firms emphasizing this task during their mid-year performance meetings [2][3][4]. Inventory Reduction Strategies - Greentown China completed an inventory reduction task of 19 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with total inventory valued at approximately 270 billion yuan, of which about 140 billion yuan is from 2021 and earlier, accounting for roughly half [3][10]. - Major real estate companies like China State Construction and China Resources Land are implementing strategies such as "old projects, new approaches" to manage inventory effectively [3][4]. - CIFI Group emphasizes inventory management by categorizing stock and implementing targeted strategies for different types of inventory [4]. Financial Implications - The inventory burden from projects acquired at high costs between 2015 and 2019 is significant, with some companies facing substantial impairment provisions due to unsold properties [9][11]. - In the first half of 2025, major firms like Poly and Vanke reported inventory impairment provisions of 7.12 billion yuan and 5.11 billion yuan, respectively, contributing to overall financial uncertainty [10][11]. Market Conditions - The real estate market is experiencing significant uncertainty, with many companies struggling to offload high-cost inventory without incurring losses [11]. - The inventory structure shows that high-quality inventory is limited, with a larger portion consisting of properties in less desirable locations or with lower sales rates [10]. Company-Specific Actions - Longfor Group has reduced its inventory by over 8 billion yuan and revitalized 11 projects, supporting cash flow through various asset management strategies [5]. - Yuexiu Property focuses on maintaining prices while reducing inventory, utilizing market analysis to adjust marketing strategies effectively [5].

ab 1 September 2025 Global Research First Read China Property Top 100 developers' sales decline narrowed in August Sales decline narrowed in August Top 100 developers' contract sales declined by 19% YoY in August 2025, narrowing from 25% in July2025. On a sequential basis, top 100 developers' contract sales declined by 4% MoM, similar to historical MoM level between 2020 and 2024. The sales decline is in line with feedback we've received from developers, ie physical market remain weak. We think the recent e ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a differentiated landscape in the first half of 2025 due to policy adjustments and changes in market demand, with some companies achieving stable growth through precise strategies and strong product capabilities [2] Group 1: Market Focus - Market demand is concentrating in high-quality areas, with leading real estate companies directing resources towards core cities, particularly first-tier and key second-tier cities, establishing a foundation based on core urban centers [3] - First-tier cities have significantly increased their contribution to sales for real estate companies, with over 50% of sales from companies like China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, and China Jinmao coming from cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [3] - Second-tier cities are becoming the main battleground for expansion, with companies like Longfor and Yuanhang focusing nearly 90% of new project areas in first and second-tier cities, balancing profit and scale [3] Group 2: Company Dynamics - The market is characterized by a leading role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and a gradual recovery of private enterprises, enhancing industry stability through collaborative efforts in sales and land acquisition [4] - In sales, SOEs like Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment dominate due to their financial advantages and brand trust, while private companies like Binjiang Group and Jianfa Real Estate are achieving positive sales growth through differentiated strategies [4] - In land acquisition, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 33.3% year-on-year increase in total land acquisition, with SOEs occupying 8 out of the top 10 positions, showcasing their role as a stabilizing force in the land market [4] Group 3: Industry Concentration and Innovation - Among the top 10 real estate companies, four, including Jianfa Real Estate and Yuexiu Property, reported positive year-on-year sales, while the overall performance of companies ranked 11-30 and 51-100 declined, indicating increased industry concentration [5] - Leading companies are enhancing product strength and optimizing investment strategies to adapt to market trends, focusing on standardization and cultural integration in product development [5] - Investment strategies are becoming more flexible and diversified, with companies like Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment prioritizing quality land in core cities and participating in urban renewal projects [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Overall, high-quality real estate companies are focusing on three main directions to build competitive advantages, indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" in the industry [6]

开发业务毛利率下降至0.2%，开发分部溢利亏损11.8亿，全年预计压降有息负债300亿。 ◎ 作者 / 房玲、易天宇 核 心 观 点 【合约销售下降32%至350亿，短期走势看政策刺激力度】 2025年上半年，龙湖集团实现合同销售金额350亿元，同比下滑32%。2025年全年预计可售货 源约1600亿，上半年已实现350亿去化，剩余约1250亿的货源将会在下半年陆续推出，其中约90%的货源位于一二线城市。针对上半年销售下滑问题，龙 湖管理层表示"我们觉得短期的走势还是会看政策的刺激力度，对于中长期仍然非常看好中国房地产市场发展的韧性。" 【仅新增上海、苏州等四幅地块，财务安全优于新增投资】 2025年上半年，龙湖集团在贵阳、重庆、上海、苏州四个城市获取4幅土地，新增土地储备建 面积为24.9万平方米，同比下降57%。管理层表示，当前仍是把财务安全放在首位，保债务安全、保交楼的重要性优于新增投资。值得注意的是，期末龙 湖集团于烟台的土储总建面达573万平米，与期初基本持平；占比20.2%，较期初增长了2.9个百分点，是企业土地储备占比最高的城市，而2024年及2023 年烟台的销售面积贡献仅为10.3万平方米及 ...

恭喜禅城！ 亚伦联合体4.77亿斩获石湾绿院子地块！ 佛实港口路校区终于要来了 乐居了解到，地块将引进龙湖合作代建。 9月3日，合肥瑞伦房地产开发有限公司、广东佰业泰建设工程有限公司以47700万元斩获禅城区石湾绿院子地块，折合楼面价约8000元/㎡，须代建佛实附 属学校！ 两家公司股权穿透关系这是龙湖继龙湖佛山·御湖境项目后，时隔一年再次加码佛山！2024年，龙湖在佛山缔造楼市传奇——佛山御湖境，3月拿地即开 工，5月开展厅，6月销售中心开放并随即开盘，10月收官清盘，从拿地到清盘全程仅7个月，为龙湖在佛山写下了浓墨重彩的一笔。 此次民企再度加仓禅城拿地，进一步释放三大重要信号： 成交截图 经查，合肥瑞伦房地产开发有限公司为南通亚伦子公司，也是龙湖地产合作方，而广东佰业泰建设工程有限公司投资了佛山市禅城区龙嘉房地产有限公 司，即龙湖御湖境项目公司。 其一，作为江苏民企，亚伦集团首入佛山拿地，为市场再一次注入强心剂。 其二，民企抢占城南双地铁优质靓地，尽显其对禅城楼市前景的坚实信心。 其三，增量房地产资金再入禅城，将进一步激活禅城区域房地产市场活力。 而对于港口路片区而言，更是迎来双重利好！绿院子地块摘牌，标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is transitioning from an era focused on scale, land reserves, and leverage to one that prioritizes operating cash flow, future profitability, and the growth potential of new businesses [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of significant losses continues in the real estate sector, indicating a challenging bottoming process [3]. - The performance of Longfor Group's mid-year report showcases a different model, achieving positive profitability and over 2 billion yuan in net operating cash flow [3][4]. - The shift from traditional developers to service-oriented firms is highlighted, emphasizing the importance of technology and efficiency in enhancing property value [3][8]. Group 2: Longfor's Business Model - Longfor's transformation to a capability-driven model integrates over 30 years of development experience and digital technology, positioning itself as a light-asset service brand [4][8]. - The new business model, Longfor Longzhizao, offers a comprehensive "one-stop urban construction solution" covering the entire lifecycle of projects [4][6]. - The revenue from Longfor Longzhizao reached 700 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65% [6]. Group 3: Client and Project Success - Longfor Longzhizao secured 62 new construction projects in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position in the industry's top tier [6]. - The client base has shifted, with 63.3% of new projects coming from central state-owned enterprises and government entities, reflecting trust in Longfor's brand and delivery capabilities [6][9]. - Successful case studies, such as the Chengdu Xijingtai project, demonstrate Longfor's ability to resolve complex issues and deliver value to stakeholders [7][9]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment - The integration of AI and digital technologies is central to Longfor Longzhizao's operations, enhancing efficiency and precision in project execution [8][9]. - Technologies like BIM and VR have significantly reduced design time and improved project outcomes, showcasing the potential for value reconstruction in the real estate sector [8][9]. - Longfor's approach illustrates that real estate companies can extend their capabilities beyond traditional development boundaries into broader urban service areas [9][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Longfor's mid-year report indicates that as inventory decreases, the impact of real estate development on the group will lessen, while operational and service businesses will drive profit growth [11]. - The transition to a new era in real estate emphasizes the need for product strength, service capability, technological advancement, and comprehensive operational skills [11].

8月，受传统淡季叠加天气因素影响，重庆楼市整体表现较为平淡，但今年商品住宅累计成交同比仍保持稳中有升。下旬开始，开发商推盘节奏有所加 快，为金九传统旺季蓄势。根据中指监测，2025年1-8月重庆中心城区成交商品房466.3万㎡；其中商品住宅成交293.5万㎡，同比增长0.5%，成交均价 14081元/㎡。 | 8 | 中国铁建 | | 8 | 中国铁建 | 14.92 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | 两江置业 | 14.56 | 9 | 两江置业 | 14.45 | | 10 | 电建地产 | 14.38 | 10 | 电建地产 | 13.28 | | 11 | 联友集团文比 | 13.84 | 11 | 夜短量城 | 13.06 | | 12 | 两江产城 | 13.82 | 12 | 融创中国 | 12.67 | | 13 | 保公量亦 | 13.78 | 13 | 千山地产 | 12.54 | | 14 | 中海地产 | 12.26 | 14 | 昕晖集团 | 12.48 | | 15 | 康田集团 | 11.78 | 15 | 两江产城 | ...

Core Insights - The Anhui real estate market is experiencing significant differentiation, with Hefei leading in land sales and new home transactions, indicating a restructuring of the regional market [1][22] - State-owned and central enterprises dominate both land acquisition and sales rankings, reflecting a concentration of market resources towards leading companies [1][22] Group 1: Land Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, Anhui's land market attracted over 35 billion yuan, with Hefei alone accounting for approximately 171.83 billion yuan, representing 48.9% of the total [10][11] - Hefei's land transaction area reached 128.87 million square meters, significantly surpassing other cities in the province [10][11] - The land market shows stark differences in activity levels among cities, with Hefei, Chuzhou, and Bengbu leading, while many cities recorded minimal or no transactions [11][12] Group 2: Residential Sales Performance - In August 2025, Hefei's residential sales reached over 40 billion yuan, with the Baohe District leading at 16.07 billion yuan, followed by the Binhu and Economic Development Districts [2][3] - The average price in the high-end market, particularly in the Binhu District, reached 33,397 yuan per square meter, indicating strong demand for premium properties [2][3] - The top-selling residential projects predominantly located in popular districts reflect the ongoing high demand for quality housing [5][6] Group 3: Developer Performance - The top 20 real estate companies in Hefei accounted for approximately 40 billion yuan in sales, indicating a high concentration of sales among leading firms [9][22] - State-owned enterprises, including Hefei Rail Transit Group and China Merchants Shekou, dominate the sales rankings, highlighting their strong market presence [8][22] - The performance of local enterprises like Hefei Urban Investment and Anhui Qingtian demonstrates the competitive landscape within the region [8][22] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The Anhui real estate market is shifting from quantity to quality, with an increasing focus on improving product offerings to meet the demands of the upgrading consumer base [22] - The market is expected to continue concentrating on core cities and regions, with a clear distinction between high-performing and underperforming areas [22] - The ongoing trend of state-owned enterprises leading the market suggests a stable yet competitive environment for future developments [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a 45% decline in net profit year-on-year, with a total revenue of 58.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 25% increase [1][8]. - The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, fell by 71% to 1.3 billion yuan [1][8]. - The real estate development segment saw a revenue increase of 35% to 45.5 billion yuan, while the operational and service segments reported revenues of 7 billion and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3% and 0% [1][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 2.61 million square meters, a decrease of 28.5% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 35 billion yuan, down 31.5% [2][10]. - Sales distribution by region showed that the Western, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, South China, and Central China accounted for 28%, 27%, 24%, 12%, and 10% of total sales, respectively, with first and second-tier cities making up 89% of sales [2][10]. Land Acquisition and Reserves - The company acquired 4 new land parcels with a total construction area of 250,000 square meters and a land cost of 1.5 billion yuan [2][10]. - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total land reserve was 28.4 million square meters, with an average land cost of 4,207 yuan per square meter [2][10]. Financial Health - The company reported a debt-to-asset ratio of 56% and a net debt ratio of 51% as of the end of the first half of 2025, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.74 [2][12]. - The company has no public debt maturing in 2025 and has 5.9 billion yuan of domestic debt maturing in 2026 [2][12]. Operational Performance - The operational and service segments showed revenue growth of 3% and 0%, with gross margins of 77.7% and 30.0%, respectively [3][15]. - The company operates 89 shopping malls with a total area of 9.43 million square meters, generating rental income of 5.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 97% [3][15]. Profit Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting revenues of 105 billion and 89 billion yuan, with net profits of 5.3 billion and 5.5 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.76 yuan and 0.79 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.5 and 11.1 [3][4].

8月29日，龙湖集团发布2025年中期业绩公告，在房地产行业陷入深度调整之际，龙湖集团保持增长和 盈利，上半年实现营收587.5亿元，同比增长25.4%。 根据Wind数据，目前135家披露半年度业绩数据的内房企业，营收保持增长的公司仅有53家，而营收超 500亿元的7家公司中仅3家公司营收在增长，龙湖就是其中之一。 随着房地产市场进入深度调整期，越来越多的房企不再将销售规模作为追求目标，转而开始追求发展质 量。目前龙湖来自一二线城市的销售占比已经达到90%，回款率超过100%。 在开发业务上，公司更重视利润与现金流的平衡，对于存量项目全力去化，回笼资金。在拓储上则坚持 审慎的原则，聚焦核心城市。截至目前，龙湖在上海、苏州、重庆、成都等高能级城市获取了5幅地 块，新增土地总建筑面积24.9万平方米，从区域来看，新增土储主要分布在长三角地区及西部地区。 报告期内，龙湖合计土地储备2840万平方米，权益面积2113万平方米，平均成本4207元每平方米，优质 的土储为未来发展提供了保证。 在今年半年度业绩会上，龙湖集团董事会主席兼首席执行官陈序平表示，"中长期仍然非常看好中国房 地产市场的发展韧性，因为一二线城市核 ...