民企当前仍面临一定困境，未来需要聚焦长期主义 导语 ◎ 文 / 房玲 洪宇桁 0 1 规模房企中民营逐渐减少，仍有6家民企逆势增长 1、规模房企中民营逐渐减少，且相对靠后（部分略） 自从2021年房企流动性承压以来，民营房企的经营状况受到了严重影响。从规模房企 1 的性质分类来看， 民营房 企的数量近年来呈现逐渐减少的趋势 。2021年前可以达到70家左右，2023年至今则一直稳定在50家以下。2025年 1-11月规模房企房企中民营房企为45家，相较于2024年全年又减少了3家。 民营房企数量大幅减少的同时， 在各梯队中的占位也逐渐靠后。 2025年1-11月的 头部十家房企中民营房企仅有1 家 ，越靠后的梯队民营房企占比越高。在近年来房地产低迷，且房企流动性危机仍在持续的背景下， 资本更倾向 于投资较为稳健的国央企和大型房企。 2、 28家民营规模房企稳健发展，6家房企逆势显著增长 2025年1-11月规模房企中民营房企有45家，其中 尚未出现过违约的房企28家。 这当中既有一直稳居行业前列的滨 江集团、龙湖集团、卓越集团等，也有逆势增长的黑马企业。从销售变化来看， 有6家民营房企的2025年1-11月销 ...

LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变；资金面延续宽松，债市承压走弱 【内容摘要】12 月 22 日，资金面保持宽松态势；12 月 LPR 报价继续持稳，叠加股市上涨，债 市承压走弱；转债市场跟随权益市场延续上行，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上 行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变】12 月 22 日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.00%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.50%，均与上月持平，连续 7 个月保持不变。 【李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议】12 月 22 日，中 共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领 导小组会议，深入研究《纲要草案》编制工作。李强指出，目前《纲要草案》的编制已经有了 较好基础，下一步要集中力量、精益求精做好修改完善工作。要着眼于更好发挥规划引领作用， 紧紧围绕推动高质量发展这个主题来设定指标、安排政策、谋划项目，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长。 【关于地方政府债务风险问题整改，财政部、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 National Top Ten Works selection process has commenced, with public voting starting from December 19 to December 25, 2023, following expert evaluations held on December 18-19, 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Voting Process and Categories - The public voting phase allows participants to select their preferred high-end, light luxury, and quality residential products, with each individual allowed to vote once per category and select up to ten projects [12]. - The final results will be based on the cumulative valid votes from all participants, and the winners will be announced in early January 2026 [11]. Group 2: Evaluation and Selection - The evaluation process includes expert reviews, public voting, and assessment models, which will determine the final rankings for the "National Top Ten High-end/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and the "China Good House Comprehensive Award/Individual Awards" [11]. - The "Product Power 100" research initiative has been ongoing since 2018, focusing on enhancing product quality and addressing housing pain points in the real estate sector [11]. Group 3: Featured Projects - Various projects have been highlighted, including: - Nanning Bangtai·Lan Jing, a modern high-rise residential development by Bangtai Group [15]. - Shanghai Haishang Yuanshu, featuring modern oriental architecture by Guomao Real Estate and Songjiang Investment [17]. - Zhuhai Huafa Tianxi, a modern residential project by China Resources Land [19]. - Beijing Jingyue Chang'an, showcasing a modern aesthetic by Houtai Group and Jindi Group [26]. - These projects represent a diverse range of architectural styles and residential offerings, emphasizing quality and modern living [15][17][19][26].

他不愿意过那种朝九晚五的日子，也不甘于拿着固定的薪水度过一生。对于他来说，这样的生活就像一 池死水，平静而无趣。而蔡奎本性喜欢冒险，渴望挑战，他希望能有一片可以大展拳脚的天地。 时机 来了，蔡奎遇上了中国科技产业的快速发展。在一次深圳的出差中，他看到了属于自己的机会。深圳作 为改革开放的前沿城市，发展速度远远超过内地。蔡奎的眼光十分独到，他敏锐地抓住了计算机产业的 商机。 当时，深圳的电子元件和重庆之间存在着较大的价格差距。蔡奎利用这一差距，开始在深圳购 买电子元件，并将这些零部件带回内地进行组装，制造电脑出售。这一切不仅让蔡奎找到了商机，也积 累了人生的第一桶金。 然而，随着内地经济的追赶，这个行业逐渐不再那么赚钱。蔡奎认识到，单靠 差价的盈利方式并不可持续，未来这个行业的风险会越来越大。因此，他决定结束自己的公司，重新回 到重庆，开始新的创业之路。 **成家立业** 回到重庆后，蔡奎加入了一家航空公司，成为一名普通职 员。曾经在深圳小有成就的他，如今只能在职场上任人差遣。但他并没有放弃，而是在这里遇到了改变 他人生的女人——吴亚军。吴亚军的家境比蔡奎好很多，她的家族是做裁缝的，吴亚军自己也擅长做旗 袍。她 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议明确化解风险，稳定楼市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/12/6-25/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.3%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.7%、 沪深 300 下跌 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分 别为：三湘印象(+12.1%)、南都物业(+7.6%)、京基智农(+5.1%)、苏州高新 (+4.2%)、世联行(+2.9%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：海泰发展(-18.2%)、ST 中迪 (-15.5%)、*ST 阳光(-11.7%)、中天服务(-11.0%)、*ST 荣控(-11.0%)。 联系人 板块表现： 数据跟踪： ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of Longfor Commercial's year-end promotional event "Tianjie Happy Season," which aims to boost consumer spending during the holiday season in North China [1][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Tianjie Happy Season" will take place from December 19 to 21, featuring various engaging activities across nine Tianjie locations in North China, in collaboration with over a hundred quality brands [1][8]. - Activities include artistic performances, educational events, and family-friendly entertainment, enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [3][4]. Group 2: Specific Activities - Changying Tianjie will host a special variety show in collaboration with the Beijing Opera and a comedy show, along with an international shell exhibition and knowledge lectures [4]. - Other Tianjie locations will feature unique events such as a Christmas market, a mobile museum, and a birthday celebration for local celebrities, creating a festive atmosphere [6][8]. Group 3: Promotional Offers - The event includes significant promotional offers, such as a 3000 Longzhu coupon for every 1200 yuan spent, and exclusive discounts on high-end brands like CHANEL, DIOR, and GUCCI [8][10]. - Various Tianjie locations will also offer unique products and special discounts, ensuring a diverse shopping experience for different consumer segments [10]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The "Tianjie Happy Season" aims to transform shopping malls into community-centric spaces that enhance lifestyle quality by combining shopping, entertainment, and emotional engagement [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the evolution of enterprise-level AI from being mere conversational agents to becoming integral business executors, highlighting the need for a comprehensive transformation in organizations to fully leverage AI capabilities [2][3]. Group 1: AI Implementation Strategy - The COO of Qian Ding Data Science, Wei Zhenhua, outlines a six-step methodology for implementing AI in enterprises, which includes recognition, value identification, platform establishment, knowledge construction, application, and evolution [6][8]. - The first step, "Recognition," focuses on achieving consensus on AI transformation across all organizational levels, emphasizing the importance of understanding AI's role and dispelling fears of job displacement [8][9]. - The second step, "Value," stresses the need to identify high-value scenarios for AI application, ensuring that quality data is available for effective AI training [9][10]. Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Knowledge Management - The third step, "Platform," discusses the necessity of building an AI agent platform tailored for enterprise needs, addressing issues such as business familiarity, permission management, and quantifiable outcomes [10][11]. - The fourth step, "Knowledge," highlights the importance of constructing a knowledge engineering framework to support AI learning, ensuring that AI systems are equipped with relevant internal data and context [10][11]. - The fifth step, "Application," focuses on user adoption, advocating for user-friendly interfaces and seamless integration of AI capabilities into existing business systems [10][11]. Group 3: AI Evolution and Practical Applications - The sixth step, "Evolution," involves continuous improvement of AI systems through iterative training and evaluation, utilizing a DMRE (Data, Model, Reward, Evaluation) framework to enhance agent capabilities over time [10][11]. - The article presents six practical applications of AI agents across various business domains, including remote inspection, energy management, asset operation, customer service, workflow automation, and employee training, demonstrating significant efficiency gains and cost reductions [13][14]. - For instance, the energy management AI agent has helped reduce overall energy consumption by approximately 27%, managing an annual electricity cost of 320 million yuan [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...