此前，北京商报记者走访世贸天阶看到，即便在周末期间，该项目人气也较为冷淡。除主力店外，多数 门店、品牌已经撤场。在世贸天阶北街区域，除维多利亚的秘密、优衣库、无印良品、朴承喆发型设计 中心等少数店铺营业外，多数铺位已被围挡遮挡。而在世贸天阶南街，位于一层的小米、H M、 ZARA、Massimo Dutti等，二层JINS门店还在经营，二层通往三层的电梯已经暂停运行。B1层的美食广 场、盒马、影城还在运营。美食广场内商户介绍，工作日用餐时间店内的顾客会多一些。 以250米亚洲最大户外天幕和"全北京向上看"口号闻名的世贸天阶，迎来新契机。11月13日，北京商报 记者从龙湖商业获悉，龙湖商业与北京奥中兴业正式完成签约后，龙湖团队已实质性地介入项目，将把 运营管理、数字化系统、会员体系、营销推广及现场服务等加入世贸天阶中。作为CBD早期商业标 杆，世贸天阶一度成为北京时尚消费与城市打卡的代名词，但随着周边新兴商业体崛起，加之业态迭代 滞后、半开放街区动线硬伤等问题，项目逐渐陷入客流下滑、空置率攀升的困境。此次龙湖入局，不仅 是单个项目的命运转折，更折射出核心商圈迭代中，专业运营商对老旧地标重生的关键作用。 龙湖在京 ...

以250米亚洲最大户外天幕和"全北京向上看"口号闻名的世贸天阶，迎来新契机。11月13日，北京商报记者从龙湖商业获悉，龙湖商业与北京奥中兴业正式 完成签约后，目前龙湖团队已实质性地介入项目，将会把运营管理、数字化系统、会员体系、营销推广及现场服务等加入世贸天阶中。作为CBD早期商业 标杆，世贸天阶曾一度是北京时尚消费与城市打卡的代名词，但随着周边新兴商业体崛起，加之业态迭代滞后、半开放街区动线硬伤等问题，项目逐渐陷入 客流下滑、空置率攀升的困境。此次龙湖入局，不仅是单个项目的命运转折，更折射出核心商圈迭代中，专业运营商对老旧地标重生的关键作用。 此次合作被业内视为龙湖深耕北京核心商圈的重要布局。上述人员表示，此举标志着世贸天阶将成为龙湖商业在北京运营的第10个商业项目，未来双方将会 把世贸天阶打造为北京CBD区域的商业美学新地标，进一步推动城市商业能级提升。 据悉，龙湖商业深耕北京市场多年，目前已布局9个商业项目，包括8座天街与1个星悦荟，分布在北京市朝阳区、海淀区、大兴区、房山区、亦庄经济开发 区及门头沟区6个片区，商业面积超过94万平方米。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜认为，这次合作对龙湖而言，相当于用 ...

Core Insights - The commercial real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by recovery and transformation, with renewed vitality from the recovering consumer market, yet facing persistent downward pressure, particularly in the office sector where supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved [1] - Companies are actively expanding financing channels, accelerating the implementation of public REITs for consumer infrastructure, and deepening digital transformation while exploring diversified operations to enhance operational quality and consumer experience [1] - The market is expected to remain in a dynamic process influenced by multiple variables, requiring companies to be agile in capturing consumer trends and macroeconomic changes to maintain operational resilience and strategic agility [1] Industry Developments - The industry is witnessing a shift towards innovative business models and operational restructuring to meet increasingly diverse and refined consumer demands [1] - The "Performance Index 2025 Annual Commercial Real Estate Performance" has been released by the Insights Index Research Institute to provide practical references for market participants, aiding the industry in navigating uncertainties to find certain development paths [1] Company Rankings - A list of top companies in various categories has been compiled, showcasing their performance in brand value, management capability, innovation, and digital development [4][5][9][12][15][33][36]

Core Insights - The commercial real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by recovery and transformation, with ongoing downward pressure despite a recovering consumer market [1] - Companies are actively expanding financing channels, accelerating the implementation of public REITs for consumer infrastructure, and deepening digital transformation to enhance operational quality and consumer experience [1] - The market is expected to remain in a dynamic process influenced by multiple variables, requiring companies to be agile and resilient in their operations to navigate the new cycle [1] Industry Overview - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in the commercial office segment, which has not yet been fundamentally resolved [1] - Investment confidence and development motivation among enterprises remain insufficient, indicating a cautious outlook for future investments [1] Company Strategies - Companies are responding to market challenges by innovating business models and enhancing operational quality to meet increasingly diverse consumer demands [1] - The "Performance Index • 2025 Commercial Real Estate Performance" report aims to provide market participants with practical references to explore certain development paths amid uncertainties [1] Performance Rankings - The report includes a ranking of companies based on various performance metrics, such as brand value, management capability, and innovation ability, showcasing the competitive landscape within the industry [2][5][7][9][10][12][19][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in Chinese property stocks is primarily driven by increasing policy expectations, with the potential for this outperformance to continue until the next government meeting in late November or December [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The fundamentals of the industry indicate a rising probability of new policy support [1] - The preferred stocks in the sector include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, and China Jinmao [1] - Longfor Group is considered to have the best risk-reward ratio amid the policy-driven rebound [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Real Estate Stocks - The upward trend in Hong Kong real estate stocks is attributed to increased confidence in the market recovery [1] - Despite a positive outlook on the market, valuations of residential stocks have fully reflected the expectations of a comprehensive recovery, with Sun Hung Kai Properties' adjusted stock price reaching historical highs while the secondary property price index remains 26% below its peak [1] - Currently, the risk-reward profile for rental property stocks is viewed as more favorable, with top picks being Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Link REIT, and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1] - Among developers, the company favors Sino Land and Henderson Land [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the real estate industry [7] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a low-level adjustment with accelerated differentiation among companies, where the overall revenue of sample companies decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 161.6% [4][8] - The sales decline is narrowing, with top companies like Jianfa Real Estate, China Jinmao, and Yuexiu Property achieving growth against the trend [4][9] - The land market is showing a trend of quality improvement and reduced volume, with core city premium land transactions supporting a year-on-year increase in transaction value [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Performance: Weakness Continues, Differentiation Among Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall revenue of 23 sample companies decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises showing a growth of 6.1% while private and mixed-ownership companies faced declines of 17.1% and 27.8% respectively [16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies fell by 161.6%, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a decline of 1595.6% [16][22] - The overall gross margin for the sample companies was 13.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, while state-owned enterprises saw a recovery in gross margin [22][40] 2. Operational Performance: Sales Under Pressure, Land Market Quality Improvement - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative sales amount of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, with a decline in sales area of 5.5% [9][43] - The top 100 real estate companies reported a cumulative sales amount of 24,948 billion, down 12.8% year-on-year, with the top 10 companies showing a decline of 11.7% [49][52] - The land market is characterized by a reduction in supply and an increase in transaction value, with the cumulative transaction amount reaching 13,304 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year [54][57] 3. Financing Environment: Marginal Improvement, State-Owned Enterprises at an Advantage - The bond issuance scale for real estate companies has stopped declining, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - The average bond issuance interest rate has decreased from 5.5% in 2021 to 2.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in market confidence [10][57] - The liquidity pressure remains, with significant differences in the financial health of various companies [10][57] 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Leading Companies in Core Areas - The report recommends focusing on leading companies that continue to acquire land in core areas of first-tier and strong second-tier cities, such as Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and China Overseas Development [11][57] - Attention should also be given to companies with potential turnaround opportunities and those with core competitive advantages in the real estate intermediary sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group is transitioning towards a second growth curve by enhancing its operational capabilities in commercial real estate, particularly in light of declining development business performance [2][4][6]. Group 1: Current Business Performance - Longfor Group reported operating revenue of approximately RMB 22.16 billion for the first ten months of 2025, accounting for 39.7% of its contract sales during the same period [2]. - The company's contract sales have significantly decreased from RMB 290.1 billion in 2021 to RMB 55.8 billion in the first ten months of 2025, with an expectation of falling below RMB 100 billion for the first time since 2017 [4]. - The share of recurring business revenue in total revenue has been increasing, reaching 22.6% in the first half of 2025, but the gross profit margin for recurring business was only 12.6%, indicating insufficient support for overall profitability [7][8]. Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - Longfor's recurring business gross profit margin is significantly lower than that of China Resources Land, which achieved a gross profit margin of 24% in its recurring business [7][8]. - The difference in profitability is attributed to the positioning of their commercial segments, with Longfor targeting middle-income families while China Resources focuses on high-end consumers [8]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Challenges - The acquisition of the World Trade Center project in Beijing is seen as a strategic opportunity for Longfor to enhance its presence in the high-end commercial market and improve brand visibility [9][10][12]. - The project has the potential to diversify Longfor's commercial product offerings and align with government policies encouraging the integration of commercial and cultural tourism [14]. - However, challenges include the need for significant capital investment for upgrades, uncertainty in rental income due to high vacancy rates (40%-50%), and a lack of experience in renovating older commercial properties [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the agreement between Beijing Aozhongxingye and Longfor Commercial for the Beijing World Trade Center project marks a significant transition for the CBD landmark, indicating Longfor's completion of its tenth commercial project in Beijing [1][4]. Group 1: Project Background - The Beijing World Trade Center, which opened in 2007, was once a vibrant commercial hub featuring Asia's largest sky screen, attracting significant foot traffic and hosting high-profile brands like ZARA and the upscale restaurant chain, Golden Jaguar [2]. - In recent years, the project has faced severe competition from nearby commercial areas, such as Taikoo Li Sanlitun and THE BOX, which have drawn away customers and contributed to the decline of the World Trade Center [2][3]. - The pandemic exacerbated the situation, leading to financial difficulties for tenants, resulting in many opting to vacate the premises after unsuccessful negotiations for rent reductions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The World Trade Center was previously put up for sale in 2015, with a reported valuation of approximately 4 billion yuan, but the sale fell through due to asset issues faced by the owner [3]. - According to a report by CBRE, over 1 million square meters of new commercial space is expected to be added in Beijing in 2024, intensifying competition in the core area and further squeezing the World Trade Center's market position [3]. Group 3: Longfor's Strategy - Following the acquisition, Longfor Commercial has established a network of commercial projects in Beijing, including nine "Tianjie" locations, enhancing its market presence across various districts [5]. - The successful transformation of the Beiyuan Tianjie project, which achieved a 99% leasing rate and generated over 33 million yuan in revenue within the first three days of opening, sets a positive precedent for the upcoming operations of the World Trade Center [5][6]. - Longfor's commercial operations reported a rental income of 7.01 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a high occupancy rate of 97% across its 89 shopping centers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between Longfor Commercial and Beijing Aozhong Xingye aims to revitalize the Beijing World Trade Center (WTC) project, positioning it as a commercial aesthetic landmark in Beijing's CBD, marking Longfor's 10th project in the city [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - The WTC was once a prominent commercial landmark in Beijing, known for its massive electronic canopy, which cost 250 million yuan and is the largest in Asia [2]. - The WTC gained fame during the 2008 Beijing Olympics but has since struggled with declining foot traffic and brand appeal due to the emergence of new commercial entities [2][3]. - The overall retail real estate market in Beijing is under pressure, with a reported 3.5% decline in effective rents and a 7.1% vacancy rate in the city center as of Q3 2025 [3]. Group 2: Current Developments - Longfor Commercial's entry into the WTC project is part of its strategy to expand its presence in Beijing, now operating 10 commercial projects in the city [5]. - The collaboration aims to leverage the WTC's historical significance while addressing its operational challenges, focusing on creating a new identity as a commercial aesthetic landmark [4][6]. - The success of this partnership will depend on Longfor's ability to innovate and attract foot traffic, as traditional shopping centers face the need for systemic innovation beyond mere tenant acquisition [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [4][48]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.2% during the week [4][7]. - In the new housing market, 154 million square meters were sold across 42 key cities from November 1 to November 7, representing a 38.7% decrease from the previous week and a 46.7% year-on-year decline [4][13]. - The second-hand housing market saw 191 million square meters sold in 21 key cities during the same period, reflecting a 7.6% decrease week-on-week and a 26.7% year-on-year decline [4][28]. Data Tracking - For new housing, the cumulative sales in November (up to the week of November 7) were 154 million square meters, showing a 195.2% increase month-on-month but a 46.7% decrease year-on-year [4][17]. - In the second-hand housing market, cumulative sales for November reached 191 million square meters, indicating an 895.9% increase month-on-month but a 26.7% decrease year-on-year [4][31]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a plan to promote the development of smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [4][45]. - Shenzhen is supporting the conversion of idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing, while Hunan's Pingjiang County is implementing a comprehensive approach to selling existing homes [4][45]. Company Announcements - In October, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with China Overseas Development at 186.6 billion (down 55.1% year-on-year) and Poly Development at 211.2 billion (down 50.1% year-on-year) [4][48].