Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.86 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [2] - The development business continues to face pressure, while diversified operations support performance; inventory reduction needs to accelerate, and the debt structure is improving [2] - The company’s sales for the first half of 2024 were 51.1 billion yuan, a decline of 48.1%, with over 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown for H1 2024: Development business revenue was 33.76 billion yuan (down 32.3%), operational business revenue was 6.61 billion yuan (up 4.3%), and service business revenue was 6.49 billion yuan (up 11.1%) [2] - The overall gross margin was 20.6%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 6.9 percentage point drop in the development business margin to 7.4% [2] - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 10.93 billion yuan, 11.61 billion yuan, and 13.25 billion yuan respectively [2] Debt and Cash Flow - As of June 2024, the company’s total debt was 187.4 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and a cash-to-short-debt ratio of 1.01 times [2] - The average loan term is 9.2 years, indicating a stable financial condition [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company plans to open approximately 10 new shopping malls in the second half of 2024, with a total of 91 malls in operation by mid-2024 [2] - The report suggests that despite current market pressures, the company is expected to maintain steady long-term growth due to its diversified business model [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.86 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [2]. - The development business continues to face pressure, while diversified operations support performance; inventory reduction needs to accelerate, and the debt structure is improving [2]. - The company’s sales in the first half of 2024 were 51.1 billion yuan, a decline of 48.1%, with over 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities [2]. - The company has a total land bank of 41.41 million square meters, down 8.8% from the end of 2023, indicating a depleting inventory cycle of approximately 5.7 years [2]. - The company opened three new shopping malls in the first half of 2024 and plans to open about ten more in the second half [2]. - The average loan term has been extended to 9.2 years, with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and a cash-to-short-debt ratio of 1.01 times, indicating a stable financial condition [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 158.81 billion yuan, with a decline of 12.1% year-on-year; net profit is expected to be 10.93 billion yuan, down 14.9% [5]. - The company’s gross profit margin is 20.6%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in the gross margin of the development business [2]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of June 2024, total borrowings were 187.4 billion yuan, down 5.2 billion yuan from the end of 2023, with cash reserves of 50.1 billion yuan [2]. - The company maintains a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.6% after adjustments [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales and profit margins in the real estate market, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.9X for 2024, indicating a valuation that reflects the company's diversified and stable development [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was impacted by its development business, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit. Maintaining liquidity is the top priority [3] - The company has effectively covered its debt due within the next year with available cash, despite a decrease in total interest-bearing debt [3] - The operational and service segments are increasingly contributing to the company's performance, with a notable growth in revenue from these areas [3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 46.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [3] - The overall gross margin was 20.6%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with the development business gross margin under pressure at 7.4% [3] - The company's sales continued to face challenges, with total sales amounting to 51.12 billion yuan, a decline of 48.1% year-on-year [3] Debt and Liquidity Management - As of August 23, 2024, the company had a cash balance of 50.06 billion yuan, which effectively covers its debt due within the next year [3] - The company’s interest-bearing debt decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 187.42 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 56.7% [3] Operational Highlights - The company opened three new shopping malls in H1 2024, achieving a total operational area of 8.29 million square meters with a rental rate of 96% [3] - Rental income from shopping malls reached 5.32 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, while the rental income from its rental apartments also grew by 6.5% [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 163.53 billion yuan, 154.84 billion yuan, and 147.71 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10.98 billion yuan, 10.35 billion yuan, and 9.95 billion yuan [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960) with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2024 interim results show a 24 5% YoY decline in revenue to RMB 46 86 billion and a 27 2% YoY drop in net profit to RMB 5 87 billion [1] - The company's operating and service businesses contribute over 80% of core profits, indicating an optimized profit structure [1] - Longfor Group has significantly improved its debt structure, with short-term debt pressure gradually easing [1] - The company's multi-channel business model, particularly in operations and services, provides stable support to help navigate industry cycles [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 H1 revenue: RMB 46 86 billion (-24 5% YoY) [1] - 2024 H1 net profit: RMB 5 87 billion (-27 2% YoY) [1] - 2024 H1 core profit: RMB 4 75 billion [1] - Gross margin: 20 6% (-1 8pct YoY) [1] - Core profit margin: 10 1% (-0 5pct YoY) [1] Sales and Development - 2024 H1 contract sales: RMB 51 12 billion (-48 1% YoY) [1] - Sales area: 3 655 million sqm (-37 0% YoY) [1] - Development business revenue: RMB 33 76 billion (-32 3% YoY) [1] - Development business gross margin: 7 4% (-6 9pct YoY) [1] Debt and Liquidity - Total debt: RMB 187 42 billion (-9 5% YoY) [1] - Cash on hand: RMB 50 06 billion (-30 9% YoY) [1] - Net debt ratio: 56 7% (-0 5pct YoY) [1] - Cash to short-term debt ratio: 1 01x [1] Operations and Services - 2024 H1 rental income: RMB 6 61 billion (+4 4% YoY) [1] - Shopping mall occupancy rate: 96 0% (+0 6pct YoY) [1] - Rental housing occupancy rate: 95 6% (+1 9pct YoY) [1] - Property management area: 3 7 billion sqm (+5 7% YoY) [1] Financial Forecasts Income Statement (RMB million) - 2024E revenue: 171,699 75 (-5 0% YoY) [4] - 2025E revenue: 178,584 91 (+4 01% YoY) [4] - 2026E revenue: 184,978 25 (+3 58% YoY) [4] - 2024E net profit: 12,400 93 (-3 49% YoY) [4] - 2025E net profit: 13,298 27 (+7 24% YoY) [4] - 2026E net profit: 14,822 38 (+11 46% YoY) [4] Balance Sheet (RMB million) - 2024E total assets: 696,806 61 [4] - 2025E total assets: 700,620 54 [4] - 2026E total assets: 715,525 38 [4] - 2024E total liabilities: 463,812 13 [4] - 2025E total liabilities: 449,703 85 [4] - 2026E total liabilities: 424,632 43 [4] Key Ratios - 2024E gross margin: 16 92% [4] - 2025E gross margin: 17 92% [4] - 2026E gross margin: 18 92% [4] - 2024E net margin: 7 22% [4] - 2025E net margin: 7 45% [4] - 2026E net margin: 8 01% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][13] Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 46.86 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [3][6][10] - The operational and service business showed resilience, contributing over 80% to the core profit, with service revenue increasing by 7.6% [3][6][10] - The company maintains a healthy debt structure with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and an average borrowing cost of 4.16% [4][6][10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 168.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [1] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 11.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.6% decrease year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 17.0% in 2024, slightly improving to 17.5% by 2026 [1][14] Business Segment Analysis - The development business revenue decreased by 32.3% to 33.76 billion yuan, accounting for 72.0% of total revenue [3][6][10] - Rental income from operational services increased by 4.3% to 6.61 billion yuan, representing 14.1% of total revenue [3][6][10] - The company’s property management and related services revenue grew by 11.1% to 6.49 billion yuan, making up 13.8% of total revenue [3][6][10] Debt and Financing - As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company had total borrowings of 187.42 billion yuan and cash on hand of 50.06 billion yuan [4][6][10] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio stands at 1.01 times, indicating a balanced liquidity position [4][6][10] Valuation and Price Target - The estimated EPS for 2024 is approximately 1.69 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6-7 times, leading to a target price range of 10.12-11.81 yuan per share [4][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][7] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in core net profit by 28% in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 469 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year. The attributable net profit was 59 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2%. The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 48 billion yuan, down 27.9% [2][4][5] - The property development business faced challenges, with revenue dropping to 338 billion yuan, a 32% decline year-on-year. However, the operational and service revenue grew by 7% to 131 billion yuan, providing stable cash flow to mitigate the impact of the downturn in development business [2][4][5] - The company maintains a robust land reserve, with a total of 41.41 million square meters and an average land cost of 4,729 yuan per square meter. The high-quality land reserves account for 73% of the total area, representing 78% of the sales value [5][6][7] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards to 154.3 billion yuan and 139.8 billion yuan, respectively, due to the decline in the transfer scale. The attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are 11.4 billion yuan and 11.0 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan and 1.60 yuan [2][7][8] - The company's financial health is stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59% and a net debt ratio of 57%. The company has 501 billion yuan in cash and a total interest-bearing debt of 1,874 billion yuan [5][6][7] - The company operates 91 shopping malls with a total operational area of 8.29 million square meters, and the operational revenue for the first half of 2024 was 131 billion yuan, with service revenue growing by 11% [6][7]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負 責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部 或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED 龍湖集團控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限責任公司） （股份代號：960） 截至二零二四年六月三十日止六個月之 未經審核中期業績公告 財務摘要 • 合同銷售額為人民幣511.2億元，對應銷售總建築面積為365.5萬平方米。 • 營業收入為人民幣468.6億元。其中，運營及服務業務收入為人民幣131.0億 元，同比增長7.6%。 • 股東應佔溢利為人民幣58.7億元，剔除公平值變動等影響後之股東應佔核 心溢利為人民幣47.5億元。其中，運營及服務業務貢獻超80%。毛利額為人 民幣96.4億元，毛利率為20.6%。核心稅後利潤率為11.7%，核心權益後利潤 率 為10.1%。 • 淨負債率（負債淨額除以權益總額）為56.7%，在手現金為人民幣500.6億元。 • 綜合借貸總額為人民幣1,874.2億元，平均融資成本為4.16%；平均合同借貸 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 52周内股价走势图 龙湖集团 恒生指数 -55% -44% -32% -21% -9% 2% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/8 本报告导读： 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|----------------------| | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | | 010-83939826 | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtj ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its initial coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has a diversified business model that supports growth across various segments, focusing on high-energy cities for its development activities [2][3]. - The company's operational and service segments contribute significantly to its profitability, helping it navigate through market cycles [2][3]. - The debt structure is well-managed, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs and a healthy balance sheet [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the real estate sector for over 31 years, establishing itself as a leading comprehensive real estate developer in China with a "1+2+2" business model [2][8]. - The ownership structure is stable, with significant control retained by the founding families [10][11]. 2. Development Business - The company has focused its development efforts on high-energy cities, with over 90% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities [2][3]. - Sales performance has been strong, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from 2014 to 2023, and a sales completion rate in line with industry averages [2][3][15]. - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, with a significant portion of its land reserves located in core cities [2][3][22]. 3. Operational and Service Segments - The operational business, including shopping malls and rental apartments, has shown stable growth, contributing over 60% to the company's profits [2][3][24]. - The rental income from the company's long-term rental apartments has been increasing, with a high occupancy rate and consistent profitability [2][3][28]. - The service segment, including property management, has also seen growth, with a focus on quality and customer satisfaction [2][3][29]. 4. Debt Structure and Financing - The company's debt levels have decreased, with a focus on maintaining a healthy financial position and low financing costs [2][3][32]. - The debt maturity profile is well-structured, with a significant portion of debt maturing in the longer term, reducing short-term repayment pressure [2][3][33].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙 TIna 湖fbole] 集 _T 团itle （] 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 13.52 积极布局高能级城市 2024.05.27 海 ——2024 年 4 月经营数据点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-20.75 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 91,494 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 公司发布4月经营数据，非开发业务稳中向好，而开发业务有待继续修复，预期在政 龙湖集 ...