致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 龍湖集團控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00960 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 1,000,000,000 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月 ...

Core Insights - The core theme for Longfor in 2025 is "safety," reflecting its stable performance through debt peaks and ongoing investments in asset management to create a robust competitive advantage [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Management Strategy - Longfor's asset management strategy is a result of long-term commitment, establishing a comprehensive asset portfolio that includes six key sectors: rental apartments, vibrant commercial streets, industrial offices, service apartments, maternal and child hospitals, and health care for the elderly, with a total management scale nearing 30 billion yuan [2]. - The company has successfully launched its innovative mixed-use product "Huan Si," which has already been implemented in multiple cities, showcasing its adaptability to market demands [3][12]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Consumer Trends - The "Huan Si" project in Hefei attracted over 132,000 visitors and generated sales exceeding 3.3 million yuan within the first three days of opening, indicating strong market acceptance [4]. - The project targets contemporary young consumers who prefer local experiences over distant destinations, emphasizing the importance of accessible social spaces [5][6]. Group 3: Integration of Mixed-use Spaces - "Huan Si" integrates various functions, with approximately 70% of its space dedicated to dining and the remaining 30% to leisure and lifestyle offerings, creating a vibrant community atmosphere [10]. - The synergy between "Huan Si" and Longfor's rental apartment brand "Guan Yu" enhances the overall value proposition, allowing residents to seamlessly transition between living and socializing [13][16]. Group 4: Operational Excellence and Future Expansion - The operational model of "Huan Si" and "Guan Yu" creates a closed-loop system that drives consumer engagement and increases rental income, with reported rent increases of 300 to 500 yuan per unit post-launch [16][17]. - Longfor plans to expand the "Huan Si + Guan Yu" model to more cities, including Nanjing and Shenzhen, while continuously improving its asset management capabilities [19]. Group 5: Comprehensive Asset Management Capability - Longfor's asset management capabilities encompass a full spectrum from planning to operational execution, allowing for effective transformation of underperforming assets into value-generating entities [23]. - The company is exploring innovative combinations of different asset types, such as integrating rental apartments with healthcare services, to enhance operational efficiency and adaptability in a changing market [25][27].

导 读 1、土地成交规模处于季节性低位 2、百强门槛均较同期下滑 3、投资TOP100拿地金额同比降幅近五成 4、供地"窗口期"开启后土拍热度有望回升 | | 金地集团 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 12 | 保利发展 | 22.7 | | 14 | 龙湖集团 | 20. 4 | | 15 | 青铁置业 | 20. 3 20 | | 16 | 和润达开发建设 | 18.9 | | 17 | 四川城更 | 18.5 | | 18 22 11 | 浙江博策 | 17.520 | | 19 | 如东新天顺 | 16.9 | | 19 | 扬州城建 | 16.9 | | 219 | 滨海城更 | 16 3 | | 22 | 汇龙地产 | 15.4 | | 23 | 宜兴经开投资 | 15.3 | | -74 | 湖南大雷投资 | 15 7 | | 25 | 阜宁城建 | 14.7 | | 26 | 元垄地产 | 14.6 | | -27 | 锦诚汇龙房地产 | 14.1 | | 28 | 金洲房地产 | 13.2 | | 29 | 如东荣能实业 | 12.8 | | CF30 | 信阳国信发展 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, Shenyang implemented precise policies to better meet residents' rigid and improved housing demands, effectively boosting buyer confidence and promoting property transactions [1] - The land market in Shenyang saw a resurgence of premium land grabbing, with many high-quality projects entering the market, making successful "first openings" a norm [1] - The top three real estate companies in Shenyang by sales volume in 2025 were Aoyuan, Yirun, and Daobuduan, with sales figures of 2,490 million m², 1,351 million m², and 1,300 million m² respectively [2] Group 2 - The top three companies in terms of registered residential area in Shenyang were China Overseas, China Resources Land, and Longfor, with China Overseas holding the title of "triple crown" in area, amount, and number of units [4] - The leading residential projects by registered area included China Resources Land's Zhonghuanyuefu, China Overseas's Tianduan, and Songming Xinghewan, indicating a shift from demand for basic housing to improved housing products [7] - In the Heping District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Lingguan No. 1, Yujing New World, and Runqi Hepingli, showcasing strong performance in the area [13] Group 3 - In the Hunnan District, the top three projects by registered area were China Overseas's Tianduan, Shenyang Xinghewan, and China Overseas's Shengjing Juzhang, with multiple new projects entering the market [19] - The top three projects in the Tiexi District were Runxi Fu, Runyue Bay, and Tianyi Jingcheng's Milan Phase II, indicating a vibrant market with new projects on the horizon [29] - The top three projects in the Yuhong District were Hongfa Huanhua Creek, Xuefu Meidi City, and Poly Heguang Yuhai, with several new projects expected to enter the market soon [32]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marks a transition in the real estate market towards high-quality development after a deep adjustment, driven by the concept of "good housing" becoming a core driver for industry transformation and upgrade [1][10]. Policy Direction - The concept of "good housing" was first included in the Government Work Report in March 2025, emphasizing the need for safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing to meet the high-quality living needs of the public [3]. - The implementation of the national standard "Residential Project Specification" starting May 1, 2025, sets new requirements for residential projects, including increased ceiling heights and improved sound insulation standards [3]. - Beijing's housing development plan for 2025 aims to establish "good housing" as a foundation for building quality communities and neighborhoods [4]. Product Iteration - The market has seen a surge of new projects embodying the "good housing" concept, with significant advancements in product design, construction techniques, and community amenities [5]. - New projects are adopting higher ceiling heights of 3.0 to 3.15 meters, enhancing spatial experience and light quality [5]. - Community amenities have become more sophisticated, with features like swimming pools, gyms, and children's play areas becoming standard in improvement projects [5]. Functional and Ecological Design - The trend of dual or triple balcony designs in new projects emphasizes both functionality and ecological value, allowing for plant cultivation and enhancing living quality [6]. - Smart home systems have transitioned from optional to standard configurations, integrating security, environmental monitoring, and energy management [6]. - Transparency in project delivery has increased, with many projects showcasing real-life demonstration areas and construction techniques during the sales phase [6]. Corporate Exploration - Leading real estate companies are translating the abstract concept of "good housing" into tangible projects through systematic innovation across various dimensions [7]. - Projects like Longfor's "Guan Cui" have set benchmarks with innovative designs, including unique balcony features and seamless public space connectivity [7]. - China Overseas Land's "Li Jin Fu" project focuses on high-quality living solutions based on extensive resident surveys, integrating smart safety systems and air quality management [8][9]. Industry Trends - The construction of "good housing" has evolved beyond mere product competition to become a comprehensive capability contest among real estate companies [9]. - The "4×4 good product concept" introduced by Yuexiu Real Estate emphasizes quality, warmth, intelligence, and growth, reflecting a dynamic approach to product standards [9]. - The overall market in Beijing is gradually finding a new direction, with the "good housing" concept influencing all aspects of land supply, planning, design, and community services [10].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in the housing rental market from incremental growth to a focus on existing stock and quality development, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing housing quality [2][4]. Policy Developments - Central and local governments are focusing on policy guidance, financial and tax measures, revitalizing existing stock, and ensuring rights protection to promote the housing rental market [2][3]. - Key policies include encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing and implementing tax incentives for public rental housing [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The housing rental market is transitioning towards a model that prioritizes quality and professional management, with government initiatives aimed at increasing supply and optimizing the housing structure [2][5]. - The report notes a significant increase in the number of rental projects, with sample enterprises recording over 115,000 units opened, indicating a trend towards differentiation and specialization in the market [7][12]. Company Performance - Leading rental companies are adopting a light-asset model, focusing on management and operational efficiency, which has led to stable profitability for some firms, such as Lingyu, which reported a compound growth rate of 214% [9][13]. - Major players like Vanke and Longfor have opened over 10,000 units each, solidifying their positions in the market [7][12]. Regional Focus - The report highlights that cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are intensifying their efforts in affordable housing construction, with Shanghai's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing a dual approach of rental and purchase to meet diverse housing needs [5][6]. - New projects are being launched in key urban areas, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, which accounts for 50% of new openings, reflecting a strategic focus on high-demand regions [16][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation from "incremental development" to "stock operation," with Longfor Group's operational resilience and strategic value becoming crucial for navigating this cycle [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2025, Longfor Group achieved a contract sales amount of 63.16 billion yuan, with operational revenue reaching approximately 28.54 billion yuan, marking a historical high [2] - The operational business, contributing about 15.19 billion yuan and service business about 13.35 billion yuan, is becoming a stable foundation for Longfor's performance amidst market volatility [2][3] - Longfor's management aims to position operational and service businesses as the "growth engine" to address the demands of the stock era [2] Group 2: Commercial Investment and Asset Management - Longfor's commercial investment added 13 new shopping centers in 2025, bringing the total to over 100 across 26 high-energy cities, supporting rental income growth [3] - The company focuses on "refined operations" and "product iteration," enhancing customer experience through unique marketing initiatives and project upgrades [3] - The asset management segment, particularly the long-term rental apartment brand "Guan Yu," has maintained a leading position in the industry, enhancing product quality and occupancy rates [4] Group 3: Technology and Service Expansion - Longfor's service business, led by Longfor Smart Living, is evolving from traditional property management to a comprehensive smart city service provider [5] - The company has expanded its service capabilities across 13 categories, securing significant projects in various urban settings, showcasing its operational strength [5] - Longfor's investment in technology, including over 10 billion yuan in R&D, has led to the development of the HALO smart space management platform, enhancing service efficiency and quality [6] Group 4: Strategic Insights - Longfor's operational breakthroughs are a result of its "One Longfor" ecosystem, where commercial projects enhance residential and community services, creating a synergistic flow of benefits [7] - The transition from developer to service operator requires a long-term strategic focus, continuous product innovation, and a strong technological foundation [7] - Longfor's stable cash flow and profit from operational businesses help mitigate cyclical fluctuations in the development industry, providing essential support for the group's overall stability [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]