股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙I Tnaf 湖bol]e 集_Ti 团tle] （ 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.18 经营性收入稳健增长 2024.03.25 ——2月经营数据点评 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-24.85 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 68,891 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 司 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 中 本报告导读： 公司发布 2 月经营数据，开发业务延续上月表现继续承压，拿地投资布局优势城 龙湖集团 恒生指数 国 市； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][2][6] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with operating business showing stable development. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 180.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, down 47.3% [3][6] - The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 11.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49.6% year-on-year. The property development business generated revenue of 155.9 billion yuan, down 31%, while operational revenue increased by 9% to 12.9 billion yuan [3][6] - The company focuses on core cities to ensure cash flow, achieving a sales area of 10.8 million square meters, down 17.2%, and sales amounting to 173.5 billion yuan, down 13.9%. The company maintained a 100% collection rate [3][6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards due to market downturns affecting the company's turnover scale and gross margin. Expected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 12.92 billion yuan and 12.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 yuan [1][6][10] - The company’s financial safety is highlighted by a debt-to-asset ratio of 60% and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023. The company has a cash balance of 60.4 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year, and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.36 times [6][9] Business Segmentation - The company’s land reserves total 45.39 million square meters, with an average land cost of 4,705 yuan per square meter. High-quality land reserves account for 72% of total area, representing 77% of sales value [3][6] - The company has secured financing channels, with new operating property loans of 17.4 billion yuan and remaining bank credit limits exceeding 200 billion yuan [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Longfor Group (0960) [2] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2023 revenue was RMB 180.737 billion, down 27.87% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 47.25% to RMB 12.85 billion [2] - The company's gross margin fell to 16.92%, a 4.25 percentage point decrease from 2022, mainly due to lower development margin (11% vs 17% in 2022) [2] - Sales volume decreased 13.94% to RMB 173.488 billion, while average selling price increased 4% to RMB 16,069.6 per square meter [2] - Rental income grew 8.9% to RMB 12.94 billion, with shopping malls contributing 77.4% and rental housing 19.7% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Development business turnover down 31.35%, significantly impacting overall revenue [2] - Profitability: Gross margin declined to 16.92%, with development margin dropping 6.9 percentage points to 11% [2] - Expense ratios: Management expense ratio increased to 2.91% (up 0.78ppt), sales expense ratio rose to 3.04% (up 0.33ppt) [2] Sales and Land Bank - Regional sales distribution: Yangtze River Delta (28.9%), Bohai Rim (21.8%), Western China (28.4%) [2] - Land acquisition: Added 31 plots totaling 3.68 million sqm GFA, with average land cost of RMB 9,730 per sqm [2] - Land bank: Total 45.39 million sqm, with 71.29% equity ratio and average cost of RMB 4,705 per sqm [2] Operational Highlights - Shopping malls: 88 operational malls with 7.97 million sqm GFA, achieving 96.2% occupancy rate [2] - Rental housing: 123,000 operational units with 95.5% occupancy rate, generating RMB 2.93 billion in revenue [2] - New openings: 12 new malls in 2023 (7 light-asset), with 14 more planned for 2024 [2] Financial Health - Leverage: Net debt ratio at 55.9%, debt-to-asset ratio (excluding advance receipts) at 60.4% [5] - Debt structure: Short-term debt at 13.9%, foreign debt at 17.7% [5] - Liquidity: Cash position of RMB 60.42 billion, cash-to-short-term-debt ratio of 1.36 [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecast: RMB 181.584 billion (2024E), RMB 194.204 billion (2025E), RMB 205.429 billion (2026E) [5] - Net profit forecast: RMB 12.85 billion (2024E), RMB 13.871 billion (2025E), RMB 14.704 billion (2026E) [5] - Valuation: PE ratios of 5.20X (2024E), 4.82X (2025E), 4.55X (2026E) [5]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙I Tnaf 湖bol]e 集_Ti 团tle] （ 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.18 积极调整，坚韧前行 2024.03.25 ——2023年业绩点评 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-24.85 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 68,891 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 司 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 中 本报告导读： 公司 2023年继续缩表，毛利率因开发业务短暂承压进一步探底；未来公司将以高质 龙湖集团 恒生指数 国 ...

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 房地产 | 公司研究 多元业务稳增，利润结构优化 2024年03月22日 龙湖集团 (00960.HK) 买入 23年核心净利润同比-50%、符合预期，运营及服务业务贡献业绩超60%。23年公司营业收入1,807 亿元，同比-27.9%；归母净利润128.5亿元，同比-47.3%；核心净利润113.5亿元，同比-49.6%、 维持 符合前期业绩预减范围，其中运营及服务业务贡献超60%、公司计划持续提升该占比；每股基本收 益2.07元，同比-49.4%。地产结算收入1,559亿元，同比-31.3%；地产结算面积1,071万平，同 比-31.0%。毛利率、归母净利率、核心净利率分别为16.9%、7.1%、6.3%，同比分别-4.2pct、-2.6pct、 市场数据：2024年03月22日 -2.7pct；地产结算毛利率11.0%，同比-6.9pct；三费费率为6.0%，同比+1.1pct，其中销售和管 收盘价（港币） 10.18 理费率分别同比+0.8pct和+0.3pct；投资收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1][18] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 180.74 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.85 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The company maintains a stable financial position with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.96 and a net debt ratio of 55.9%, which is a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The operational business showed resilience with rental income increasing by 8.9% to 12.94 billion RMB, contributing significantly to profits [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 180.74 billion RMB, down 27.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.85 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year. The core net profit, excluding fair value changes, decreased by 49.6% to 11.35 billion RMB [3][4] - The gross profit was 30.58 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.9%. The core after-tax profit margin was 8.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Development Business - The development business generated revenue of 155.86 billion RMB, with a total delivered property area of 10.708 million square meters and a settlement gross margin of 11.0% [3] - The company focused on core regions, with contract sales amounting to 173.49 billion RMB, corresponding to a sales area of 10.796 million square meters, with an average price of 16,070 RMB per square meter [3] Operational Business - The operational business achieved rental income of 12.94 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. The overall occupancy rate for opened shopping malls was 96.2% [4] - The company opened 12 new shopping malls in 2023, with same-store sales and foot traffic both increasing by over 30% year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Longfor Group (0960) [2] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2023 revenue was RMB 180.737 billion, down 27.87% YoY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.85 billion, down 47.25% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin declined to 16.92% in 2023, down 4.25 percentage points from 2022, with development gross margin dropping to 11% from 17% [2] - Sales in 2023 reached RMB 173.488 billion, down 13.94% YoY, with a sales area of 10.796 million sqm, down 17.25% YoY, but the average selling price increased by 4% to RMB 16,069.6 per sqm [2] - The company added 31 new land parcels in 2023, with a total construction area of 3.68 million sqm and an average land cost of RMB 9,730 per sqm [2] - Rental income in 2023 was RMB 12.94 billion, up 8.9% YoY, with shopping malls contributing 77.4% of the total rental income [2] Financial Performance - The company's net debt ratio was 55.9% at the end of 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.4% after excluding advance receipts [5] - Interest-bearing debt decreased by 7.4% to RMB 192.6 billion at the end of 2023, with short-term debt accounting for 13.9% and foreign debt for 17.7% [5] - The company's cash position remained strong, with RMB 60.42 billion in hand at the end of 2023, resulting in a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.36 [5] - The average borrowing cost was 4.24% per annum, with an average loan term of 7.85 years [5] Business Operations - The company's shopping mall business achieved rental income of RMB 10.28 billion in 2023, up 9% YoY, with an occupancy rate of 96.2% [2] - Long-term rental apartments generated rental income of RMB 2.93 billion in 2023, up 13% YoY, with a five-year CAGR of 25% [2] - The company plans to open 14 new shopping malls in 2024, continuing its asset-light strategy [2] Regional Performance - Sales in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Western regions accounted for 28.9%, 21.8%, and 28.4% of total sales, respectively [2] - The company's land reserves totaled 45.39 million sqm at the end of 2023, with an average land cost of RMB 4,705 per sqm, representing 29.3% of the current selling price [2] Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenue growth of 0.47%, 6.95%, and 5.78% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 12.85 billion, RMB 13.871 billion, and RMB 14.704 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's EPS is projected to be RMB 1.90, RMB 2.05, and RMB 2.17 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group Holdings Limited reported its annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2023, highlighting a resilient approach amid macroeconomic shifts towards high-quality development in the real estate market [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 180.74 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.85 billion yuan, with core net profit after excluding fair value changes reaching 11.35 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit amounted to 30.58 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 16.9%, while the core net profit margin stood at 8.7% and the core profit attributable to equity holders was 6.3% [1] Development Business - The development segment generated revenue of 155.86 billion yuan, with a total delivered property area of 10.708 million square meters and a settlement gross margin of 11.0% [1] - The company recorded contract sales in real estate development of 173.49 billion yuan, achieving a sales collection rate exceeding 100% [1] Regional Sales Performance - Sales distribution by region showed that the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Western China, South China, and Central China accounted for 28.9%, 21.8%, 28.4%, 11.8%, and 9.1% of total sales, respectively, with first and second-tier cities making up 95% of sales [1] Delivery and Customer Satisfaction - Longfor Group delivered a total of 140,000 housing units in 2023, with 20% delivered more than a month ahead of schedule, achieving a customer satisfaction rate exceeding 90% [1] Investment Strategy - The company focused on investment in core regions, acquiring 31 new land parcels in major cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, with a total new land reserve area of 3.68 million square meters and an equity area of 2.66 million square meters [1] - As of December 31, 2023, the total land reserve reached 45.39 million square meters, with an equity area of 32.36 million square meters, concentrating 77% of its value in high-energy cities and valuable areas at reasonable costs [1]

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 173.49 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 10.796 million square meters[1] - Operating revenue reached RMB 180.74 billion, with revenue from operations and services increasing by 5.7% year-on-year to RMB 24.88 billion[1] - Shareholders' profit attributable to the company was RMB 12.85 billion, with core profit after excluding fair value changes at RMB 11.35 billion, contributing over 60% from operations and services[1] - Gross profit was RMB 30.58 billion, with a gross profit margin of 16.9% and a core net profit margin of 8.7%[1] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 15.68 billion, down from RMB 30.85 billion in the previous year[7] - The company's annual profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB 12,850,011,000, a decrease from RMB 24,362,046,000 in 2022, representing a decline of approximately 47.3%[33] - The adjusted profit for the segment was RMB 24,528,297 for 2023, down 47.6% from RMB 46,812,618 in 2022[17] - The revenue from the development segment was RMB 155,857,211 in 2023, compared to RMB 227,017,339 in 2022, reflecting a decline of 31.4%[19] - The revenue from service and other segments was RMB 11,943,543 in 2023, slightly up from RMB 11,667,957 in 2022[19] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to RMB 433.42 billion from RMB 450.90 billion year-on-year[9] - The total assets of the company decreased to RMB 700,406,875 in 2023 from RMB 786,774,416 in 2022, a reduction of 10.9%[17] - The total liabilities also decreased to RMB 463,948,608 in 2023 from RMB 553,595,326 in 2022, a decline of 16.2%[17] - The company's total liabilities decreased from RMB 93,902,617,000 in 2022 to RMB 67,600,213,000 in 2023, indicating a reduction of about 28%[36] - The total amount of trade payables and accrued construction costs was RMB 42,482,145,000 in 2023, down from RMB 64,096,184,000 in 2022, reflecting a decrease of approximately 33.7%[36] Cash Flow and Debt - Net debt ratio stood at 55.9%, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 60.42 billion[1] - Total consolidated borrowings decreased by 7.4% year-on-year to RMB 192.65 billion, with an average borrowing cost of 4.24%[1] - The company's interest-bearing debt as of the end of 2023 was RMB 192.6 billion, a decrease of 7.4% from 2022, with bank financing accounting for 77%[39] - The average borrowing cost for the group was 4.24%, with fixed-rate debt accounting for 32% of total debt[63] Dividends - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.23 per share, totaling an annual dividend of RMB 0.55 per share[1] - The company confirmed an interim dividend of RMB 0.32 per share for 2023, compared to RMB 0.33 per share in 2022, indicating a slight decrease of 3%[31] Segment Performance - The company operates through three main business segments: Development, Operations, and Services, primarily in China[13] - The performance of each segment is monitored based on revenue, performance, assets, and liabilities allocated to each segment[14] - The company evaluates segment performance using adjusted profit metrics, which exclude interest, other income, taxes, depreciation, and amortization[14] - The sustainable revenue from the operations and services segment reached RMB 24.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 6%[40] Investment Properties - The company’s investment property portfolio primarily consists of shopping malls and rental housing, all located in China[13] - The rental income from shopping malls accounted for 77.4% of the total rental income, while rental apartments contributed 19.7%[48] - The group's operating income from rental activities in 2023 was RMB 12.94 billion, representing an 8.9% increase from the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 75.9%[48] - The total area of operational shopping malls reached 7.97 million square meters, with an overall occupancy rate of 96.2%[48] Market Expansion and Future Plans - The company expects to continue focusing on market expansion and new product development in the upcoming fiscal year[16] - The group continues to expand its presence in first and second-tier cities across China, focusing on urban shopping centers and rental housing[48] - The group plans to complete approximately 16 million square meters of properties in 2023 and aims for about 15 million square meters in 2024, with most projects concentrated in the second half of the year[66] - The group will adjust the pace of property launches flexibly in 2024 based on market conditions, focusing on improving demand[66] Compliance and Governance - The company adopted new International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and amendments effective from January 1, 2023, with no significant impact on financial position or performance[11] - The audit committee has reviewed the accounting principles and discussed risk management and internal control systems for the financial year ending December 31, 2023[70] - The company has complied with the securities trading standards set forth in the listing rules for the year ending December 31, 2023[73]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[龙I Tnaf 湖bol]e 集_Ti团tle]（ 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.84 聚焦协同，稳健发展 2024.03.13 海 ——2023年业绩预告点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-24.85 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前市值（百万港元） 73,357 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 公司预计 2023 年归母净利润同比下滑 45%~50%，主要源自开发业务收入和毛利率 XX股票 X ...