Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][20] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in performance, but its diversified business segments are showing stable growth, leading to an optimized profit structure [8][9] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 127.475 billion and a net profit of 10.401 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.5% and 19.1% respectively [7][8] - The core net profit for 2024 was 69.7 billion, down 38.6% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations [8] - The company’s real estate settlement revenue decreased by 35% to 100.8 billion, while its operational and service revenue increased by 7.3% to 26.7 billion, contributing to 70% of gross profit [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 93.681 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.976 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.5% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0 [7][9] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2025 [7] Business Performance - The company’s sales for 2024 were 1,011 billion, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.12 million square meters, a decrease of 34% [8] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, securing only 9 plots for a total of 11.5 billion, a 69% decrease year-on-year [8] - The company’s diversified business segments, including shopping malls and property management, have shown stable growth, with operational service revenue increasing by 7.3% [8] Debt and Financial Health - The company remains in a healthy financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.2% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% as of the end of 2024 [8] - The company’s financing cost has decreased to 4.0%, reflecting a 24 basis point year-on-year decline [8] - The company has a long debt maturity profile, with an average term of 10.3 years [8]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported strong financial performance for 2024, with total revenue of RMB 127.47 billion and net profit of RMB 10.4 billion, highlighting the resilience of its operational and service segments amid a challenging real estate market [1][3] Financial Performance - Longfor's operational and service business generated revenue of RMB 26.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, contributing 21% to total revenue [1] - The company achieved a net debt ratio of 51.7% by the end of 2024, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.63 [1] - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.1 per share, with a total dividend payout of RMB 0.32 per share for the year, representing a payout ratio of approximately 30% [2] Sales and Market Position - Longfor maintained a stable sales figure exceeding RMB 100 billion, ranking among the top tier in the industry, with a total contract sales of RMB 101.12 billion for 2024 [3] - The company reported a sales return rate exceeding 100%, with significant sales in 19 cities across the country [3] Strategic Focus - Longfor aims to balance its revenue structure between development and operational services by 2028, prioritizing debt safety over new investments [3] - The company plans to launch over RMB 160 billion in saleable inventory, with more than 80% located in first- and second-tier cities [4] Operational Insights - Longfor's operational business, excluding tax rental income, reached RMB 13.52 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 75% [7] - The commercial segment generated rental income of RMB 10.98 billion, with a 7% increase and a significant rise in both sales and foot traffic [9][11] Land Acquisition and Development - In 2024, Longfor acquired land reserves totaling 830,000 square meters, with an average acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter [5] - The company maintained a cautious investment approach despite a recovering land market, focusing on strategic locations and avoiding aggressive bidding [6] Debt Management - Longfor's financial discipline has led to a reduction in total borrowings to RMB 176.32 billion, down over RMB 30 billion from peak levels, with a significant shift towards operational property loans [22][23] - The average financing cost decreased to an annual rate of 4%, with a loan maturity of 10.27 years, indicating a stable debt structure [22]

在回答《每日经济新闻》等媒体关于未来公司是否会"重运营、轻开发"的提问时，陈序平指出，在近几年地产业务受到冲击的情况下，运营及服务航道基本 上撑起了整个集团利润的盘面。"但龙湖实际上是开发、运营服务齐头并进，只是在目前阶段，龙湖要把债务安全放在第一位，债务安全优先于增量投资。" "地产开发的很多现金流要用于偿还集团顶层的债务债券融资，所以就会压缩投资的头寸。但公司也保持了一定的投资强度，聚焦一二线核心的城市，选择 更有生意逻辑、更加有兑现把握的项目。同时，我们对一些低能级项目选择了出清策略。"陈序平强调，开发业务公司依然会持续做，"即使到2028年运营及 服务收入占比过半的情况下，开发业务收入仍将是公司最重要的收入组成部分"。 2024年，龙湖集团在北京、上海、杭州、成都等城市共获得9幅土地，新增土储总建筑面积为83万平方米，权益面积为39万平方米。截至2024年末，龙湖集 团的土地储备合计达3312万平方米，权益面积为2426万平方米。 对于2025年的投资策略，龙湖集团执行董事兼地产航道总裁张旭忠表示，今年的销售仍然有很大机会。龙湖的供货非常充裕，年初存货达到900多亿元，今 年预计会有600亿到700亿 ...

开发业务方面，全年实现合约销售金额1011亿人民币，其中一二线城市销售占比超90%，并表回款率超 100%，持续保持高质量回款。商业投资方面，全年如期新增运营11座商场，其中4座为轻资产。 智通财经APP讯，龙湖集团(00960)公布2024年业绩，营业收入为人民币1274.7亿元。其中，运营及服务 业务收入为人民币267.1亿元，同比增长7.4%。毛利额为人民币204.1亿元，毛利率为16.0%。公司拥有 人应占溢利为人民币104.01亿元，剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具公平值变动影响后的公司拥有人应 占核心溢利为人民币69.7亿元。每股基本盈利人民币1.58元，议派发末期股息每股人民币0.10元。 过去两年，该集团持续深耕高能级城市，打造云河颂、御湖境、观萃等改善型住宅产品，满足差异化的 居住需求。去年全年，集团在全国43城共计交付约10万套品质房源，满意度达90%。在市场"止跌回 稳"的趋势下，集团将致力于存量货源的攻坚去化，同时适时、精准补充新地，推进土储结构优化与提 质。 于2024年12月31日，该集团的土地储备合计3,312万平方米，权益面积为2,426万平方米。土地储备的平 均成本为每平方米人 ...

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 101.12 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 7.124 million square meters[2] - Revenue reached RMB 127.47 billion, with operating and service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.71 billion[2] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was RMB 10.40 billion, with core profit after tax at RMB 6.97 billion, resulting in a core profit margin of 6.4%[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 11.67 billion, down from RMB 15.68 billion in the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.58, while core basic earnings per share were RMB 1.06[2] - Total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 127,474,948,000, a decrease of 29.5% from RMB 180,736,575,000 in 2023[14] - Adjusted profit for the development segment was RMB 1,317,707,000, down 89.1% from RMB 12,078,240,000 in the previous year[14] - The total adjusted profit for the company was RMB 15,399,594,000, a decrease of 37.2% from RMB 24,528,297,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10,401,171 in 2024, down from RMB 12,850,011 in 2023, a decrease of 19.1%[34] Debt and Liquidity - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion[2] - Total borrowings decreased by 8.5% year-on-year to RMB 176.32 billion, with an average financing cost of 4.0%[2] - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased by RMB 16.3 billion to RMB 176.3 billion, with an average financing cost reduced to 4.00%[42] - The group’s debt is approximately 86.4% denominated in RMB, with 13.6% in foreign currencies, and all foreign currency borrowings are hedged against exchange rate risks[72] - The group has a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times, indicating a stable liquidity position[74] Assets and Liabilities - Investment properties increased to RMB 210.92 billion, up from RMB 199.75 billion year-on-year[5] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 47.95 billion from RMB 59.22 billion year-on-year[5] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 420,164,974,000 from RMB 463,948,608,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a consolidated asset total of RMB 665,641,785,000, down from RMB 700,406,875,000 in 2023[17] - The company’s trade payables and accrued construction costs totaled RMB 40.56 billion in 2024, down from RMB 42.48 billion in 2023[40] Revenue Segments - Revenue from external customers in the development segment decreased to RMB 100,766,610,000, a decline of 35.4% compared to RMB 155,857,211,000 in 2023[18] - The service segment's revenue increased to RMB 13,186,068,000, up 10.4% from RMB 11,943,543,000 in 2023[18] - Revenue from rental income was RMB 13,522,270,000, an increase of 4.5% from RMB 12,935,821,000 in 2023[18] - The company’s smart living services generated revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8%[44] - The property management segment achieved revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, managing a total area of 410 million square meters by year-end[78] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.10 per share, totaling an annual dividend of RMB 0.32 per share[2] - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 688,816,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 1,516,104,000 for 2023[32] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes nine members, with Chen Xuping serving as both the chairman and CEO, which deviates from the corporate governance code[92] - The company is committed to high standards of corporate governance to enhance performance and company value[87] - The audit committee consists of three independent non-executive directors who reviewed the accounting principles and financial reporting matters[86] Strategic Initiatives - The group has invested over RMB 2 billion in public welfare, benefiting 2.34 million people across the country[48] - All new projects meet the national green building star rating standards, reflecting the group's commitment to low-carbon principles[48] - The group aims to enhance its corporate governance system to ensure high-quality and sustainable development[48] - The group plans to open 11 new shopping malls in 2025, focusing on cities like Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing, while maintaining a balanced development approach[77] Operational Highlights - The company delivered approximately 100,000 quality housing units across 43 cities in the past year, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 90%[42] - The commercial segment achieved a rental rate of 97% by the end of 2024, contributing to stable operating profits and cash flow[43] - The average daily foot traffic for the year was 3.28 million visitors[58] - The overall gross profit margin for operations was 75.0%, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year[54] Land Reserves and Acquisitions - The total land reserve of the group as of December 31, 2024, is 33.12 million square meters, with an equity area of 24.26 million square meters and an average cost of RMB 4,304 per square meter[66] - In 2024, the group acquired a total of 830,000 square meters of new land reserves, with an equity area of 390,000 square meters and an average equity acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter[66] - The land reserves are distributed regionally, with the Bohai Rim region accounting for 34.6%, the Western region 27.6%, the Central China region 15.0%, the Yangtze River Delta region 13.9%, and the South China region 8.9%[66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price revised down from HK$17.50 to HK$15.00 [5][9][12]. Core Insights - The company's core profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.35 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.90 billion in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in sales and profit margins, alongside impairment losses [1][11]. - The report highlights that recurring income will support the company's performance in 2024, with a projected growth of 7.4% to RMB 26.7 billion, driven by rental and service income [1][9]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming a rental stock, with expectations that its profitability and financing will continue to be impacted by its real estate development business during 2025-2026 [2][9]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 180.74 billion in 2023 to RMB 120.24 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.5% [3][10]. - Gross contracted sales are expected to drop from RMB 173.49 billion in 2023 to RMB 101.12 billion in 2024, a decline of 41.7% [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease from 16.9% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2024, reflecting the impact of high land costs and falling property prices [1][10]. Debt and Financing - The company plans to use its land investment budget for deleveraging, aiming to repay approximately 10% of its total debt in 2024 [2][9]. - The report notes that the company has a significant amount of debt maturing in 2025, including RMB 10 billion in bonds and RMB 9.2 billion in syndicated loans [2][9]. Dividend Policy - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, despite the anticipated decline in core profits [1][2].

Group 1 - Recent market surveys indicate that suppressed rigid housing demand is beginning to be released, maintaining an "outperforming the market" outlook for the domestic real estate industry [1] - The company suggests focusing on real estate firms with strong commercial operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, New World Development, and Longfor Group [1] - The long-term development of property management stocks is viewed positively, with attention on China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, Poly Property, Binjiang Service, and Wanwu Cloud [1]

Group 1 - Longfor Group successfully completed the principal repayment and interest payment of the "21 Longfor Expansion MTN001" bond, involving a total amount of approximately 1.03 billion yuan [1] - Following this repayment, all publicly issued debts of Longfor Group due in 2024 have been fully settled [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company has a broad future growth potential due to its three main business segments: development, operation, and service, which work in synergy [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 158.04 billion, 153.30 billion, and 149.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.6%, -3.0%, and -2.7% respectively [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8, 6.1, and 5.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience, focusing on residential development, commercial investment, and property management across major cities in China [14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Wu family being the largest shareholder [15]. Business Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 180.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in property development revenue [21]. - The operating and service segments showed resilience, with a revenue increase of 5.7% year-on-year, contributing to 13.8% of total revenue [21]. Financial Health - The company maintains a strong financial position, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.25 and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023 [24]. - The company has successfully managed its debt structure, with no foreign bonds maturing before the end of 2026 [26]. Commercial Investment - The company has been actively expanding its commercial investment segment, with a focus on high-energy cities, having entered over 30 cities and opened 88 shopping centers by the end of 2023 [30]. - The company plans to open 14 new shopping centers in 2024, with a total expected area of 951,000 square meters [33].

Project Development - The company reported a completion rate of 70% for the Train New Town project in Baoding, with an expected completion date of December 2025 and a total construction area of 421,485 sqm[13]. - The company has 100% completion for the Xincheng Avenue project in Chengdu, with a total construction area of 56,073 sqm, expected to be completed by November 2024[13]. - The company holds a 50% interest in the Changping Life Science Park Project in Beijing, with an expected completion date of December 2025 and a total construction area of 114,000 sqm[13]. - The company reported a 75% unsold interest in the No. 23, Dong'an Street plot in Chengdu, with an expected completion date of December 2024[13]. - The company has a total of 30 ongoing development projects with a combined gross floor area (GFA) of approximately 3,000,000 square meters[15]. - The Pidu Zhongxin Avenue project in Chengdu is expected to be completed by May 2025, with a 100% ownership and a GFA of 158,833 square meters[15]. - The Longfor Origin project in Dongguan is set for completion in November 2025, with a 100% ownership and a GFA of 98,469 square meters[15]. - The company has a total of 20 principal development properties with varying completion dates, the earliest being in November 2024 and the latest in November 2028[18]. - The overall project interest in the Land Bridge Project in Lanzhou is 70%, with a gross floor area (GFA) of 99,593 sqm[18]. - The company has 100% interest in the Pengjiaping Xiping Street project in Lanzhou, which has a completed GFA of 88,462 sqm[18]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has a total of 13 cities in the Southern China region, contributing to its market expansion strategy[6]. - The company is actively developing new properties, with several projects in Chengdu and Beijing, indicating a focus on urban development[13]. - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position and expand its portfolio[7]. - The company aims to increase its asset management capabilities to optimize returns on its property investments[7]. - The company is actively expanding its portfolio with multiple projects across various cities, focusing on residential and commercial developments[30]. - The company is focusing on strategic locations in major cities to enhance its market reach and customer base[32]. - Future projects are in the planning stage, which may further increase the company's market share and operational capacity[32]. - The Group is focused on enhancing operating cash flow, improving efficiency, and steadily reducing indebtedness while optimizing inventory structure[44]. Financial Performance - The Group reported a core attributable profit of RMB 4.75 billion for the first half of 2024, with revenues from investment property operation and services reaching RMB 13.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%[41]. - The average financing cost for the Group is 4.16%, with the average contract loan term extended to 9.19 years, indicating a stable financial position[41]. - As of mid-2024, the Group's interest-bearing debt amounted to RMB 187.4 billion, a reduction of RMB 5.2 billion compared to the beginning of the year[41]. - The Group's property development revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 33.76 billion, with a gross profit margin of 7.4% and an average selling price of RMB 11,145 per square meter[60]. - The Group delivered a total gross floor area of 3.029 million square meters in the first half of 2024[60]. - The total contracted sales for the first half of 2023 were RMB 98.516 billion, indicating a significant decrease in sales year-over-year[69]. - The Group's net rental income from investment property operations for the first half of 2024 was RMB 6.61 billion, with shopping malls, rental housing, and other income contributing 78.4%, 19.8%, and 1.8% respectively[75]. Rental Income and Occupancy - Longfor Commercial achieved an overall occupancy rate of 96% across 91 shopping malls in 20 core cities by the end of June[50]. - The long-term rental apartment brand Goyoo generated rental income of RMB 1.31 billion in the first half of the year, with an occupancy rate of 95.6%[51]. - The overall rental income for the first half of 2024 showed a positive trend with several properties maintaining high occupancy rates above 90%[80]. - The rental income from shopping malls reached RMB 8.29 billion, a significant increase from RMB 5.32 billion in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of 55.5%[84]. - The average occupancy rate for shopping malls was 96.0% in the first half of 2024, slightly up from 95.4% in the same period of 2023[84]. Corporate Governance and Shareholder Information - The Company aims to retain existing employees and attract new talents through the Restricted Share Award Scheme[169][170]. - The Company has complied with the Corporate Governance Code, except for the dual roles of the Chairman and CEO held by Mr. Chen Xuping, which deviates from the code provision C.2.1[173][176]. - The Board declared an interim dividend of RMB0.22 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024[183]. - Eligible shareholders can choose to receive the interim dividend in cash, new shares, or a combination of both under the Scrip Dividend Scheme[183]. - As of June 30, 2024, HSBC International Trustee Limited holds 4,372,437,207 ordinary shares, representing approximately 64.609% of the company's equity[157].