25 年有望穿越债务周期，运营业务继续助 力转型突围 核心观点 近期，公司召开股东大会，管理层表示 2025 年到期债务已做好偿债铺排，年底有息负债 余额降至 1400 亿元左右。公司发布 5 月运营数据，1-5 月，公司运营业务收入 110.2 亿，同比持续增长。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 龙湖集团 00960.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月02日） | 9.62 港元 | | 目标价格 | 10.24 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.68/7.33 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 698,718/698,718 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 67,217 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 04 日 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司凭借大体量且较为优质的经营性资产融资置换信用债以优化债务结构，财务安 全性提升。行业下行期开发业务形成一定拖累，而经营业务支撑利润基本盘， ...

7月3日消息，龙湖已将"22龙湖04"的兑付资金拨入偿债划款至中证登专户，总金额17.66亿 元。"22龙湖04"发行规模17亿元，票面利息为4.1%，行权日期为2025年7月5日。"22龙湖04"兑 付完成后，龙湖年内累计兑付公开债接近90亿元。2023年～2024年，龙湖两年累计压降有息负债 超300亿元。 ...

Group 1 - Longfor has allocated 1.766 billion RMB to the repayment account for the bond "22 Longfor 04" [1] - The total amount includes 1.697 billion RMB in principal and 69.7 million RMB in interest [1] - After the repayment of "22 Longfor 04," the total public debt repayment by Longfor this year approaches 9 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - The issuance scale of "22 Longfor 04" is 1.7 billion RMB with a coupon rate of 4.1% [1] - The maturity date for the bond is set for July 5, 2025 [1]

民企（拿地）的名单还在扩充…… 成都的新希望地产、邦泰集团、嘉禾兴、兴唐地产、澳南实业、润丰达滨江、万华集团…… 浙江的滨江集团、江山万里置业、兴耀房产、伟星置业、海威置业、温州华玺、中天美好集团、建杭置业、万固地产、得力房产、保亿置业、 华磊房地产、杰立建设、现浙江光大置业、驭远集团、浙江金帝、天阳地产、英冠控股…… 江苏的华宇地产、昌久置业（徐州）、南通亚伦、台州鼎荣诤通置业、江苏高淳国际慢城文化旅游产业、苏州企策、江苏中润置业、中大地 产、金联置业…… 广西的凯誉汇（南宁）、永鑫达（南宁）…… 总归舆论出现了两派，一派平和，一派激愤；其实还应有一派，就是稀松平常，行业繁华时没机会，市场低潮时，敢抢洼地。 陕西的文昌地产（西安）、京颐置业（西安）、佳龙（西安）、冠景荣置业、鼎诚智和（西安）、文启星途（西安）、泰发祥…… 江西的煌上煌、龙海地产、中佑盛景、泽泓房地产…… 河北的澜佰房地产、惠山房地产…… 广东的宏宇地产、番禺置业、敏捷集团…… 湖北的祈源地产（武汉）、招城置业（武汉）、恺德集团（武汉）……上海的大华集团、宸嘉发展、宝华集团…… 还有东北的方大集团、福州合达地产、骏宸投资、福州裕诚；湖南的嘉信 ...

Core Insights - The top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales amount of 1,652.68 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, with the decline rate widening by 3.8 percentage points compared to the first five months of the year [1][5] - In June 2025, the sales amount reached 338.96 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 14.7%, with nearly 60% of the top 100 companies experiencing month-on-month growth [2][4] - The market is showing signs of stabilization, with the transaction volume in 30 key cities remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year, and a weak recovery trend expected to continue into July [15] Sales Performance - The number of companies with total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan decreased to 3, down from 5 in the same period last year [1][14] - The sales threshold for the top 30 companies increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 11.98 billion yuan, while the thresholds for other tiers decreased [8] - Among the top 100 companies, the sales performance varied significantly across different tiers, with the top 21-30 tier remaining stable, while the top 10, 11-20, and 51-100 tiers saw declines [11] Company Rankings - The leading companies by total sales in the first half of 2025 were Poly Developments with 145.2 billion yuan, China Overseas with 120.13 billion yuan, and China Resources Land with 110.3 billion yuan [14][19] - A total of 45 companies achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is one less than the previous year [14] Market Trends - The overall real estate market is stabilizing, with June's new home transaction volume in key cities reaching 10.34 million square meters, remaining stable compared to last year [15] - The differentiation between first-tier and second/third-tier cities is intensifying, with first-tier cities showing stronger resilience and second/third-tier cities experiencing a downturn [15] - The expected transaction volume for July is anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a lower base from the previous year [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of China's real estate market in the first half of 2025, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving a total sales amount of 16,526.8 billion yuan, led by state-owned enterprises such as Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land [2] - In June, the overall market sales data showed a month-on-month increase, driven by the increased supply from state-owned enterprises, with notable sales growth from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [2] - Despite a narrowing decline in the real estate market, the overall sales volume and price correction trend have not been reversed, with a reported 3.41 trillion yuan in sales from January to May 2025, down 3.8% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The articles mention that high-quality projects in key markets have achieved remarkable sales, such as the Chongqing Yuhuijing project, which sold out its first batch of units and generated sales of 1.1 billion yuan [3] - The concept of "good housing" has been incorporated into government work reports, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the real estate sector, supported by policies in planning, land, finance, and other areas [4] - The China Index Academy predicts that the new housing sales market will continue to show differentiation in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total sales area of new residential properties expected to drop to around 900 million square meters for the year [4]

来源：环球网 5月，重庆龙湖·御湖境以2天6.2亿的销售额一举拿下销售金额、套数、面积"三冠王"。近日，项目二期 建面约115-130㎡四代住宅产品已强势登场，将"空中庭院"的生活首次带入300万级改善客群视野，以颠 覆性产品设计与顶配资源矩阵，重新定义重庆改善住宅标准。 境示范区实景图 作为龙湖在礼嘉极核的集大成之作，项目以"双天街+四轨枢纽+双滨湖公园"的配置资源矩阵，搭配"悬 浮合院系统"与6.3米挑高露台的产品创新，将重庆四代宅标准拉升至国际滨水豪宅维度。御湖境的现象 级热销背后，是高净值人群对稀缺资源的追逐，更是对龙湖影响力及产品力的深度认可——从2008年悠 山郡启蒙礼嘉价值，到2019年礼嘉天街改写北区商业格局，龙湖用19年时间将一片农田雕琢为城市极 核，而此次的龙湖·御湖境正是这一进程的巅峰之作。 龙湖御湖 境规划布局图 数据显示，御湖境一期首开销售额超越2023年重庆92%新盘的全年销售额，单盘之力撬动市场热度的背 后，是产品力的全面突破。与一期"塔尖定位"不同，御湖境二期推出的 115-130㎡四代住宅，堪称龙湖 龙湖御湖 对改善客群的定制化献礼。项目团队深入调研25-35岁新中产需求，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of "Yuhujing" by Longfor in Fengxian represents a significant step in creating a high-end living environment, emphasizing the integration of space and artistic value to enhance the lifestyle of affluent buyers [1][4]. Group 1: Longfor's Development in Fengxian - Longfor has invested over 18 billion in Fengxian over the past eight years, establishing a unique "Longfor Living Circle" that showcases its commitment to the area [4]. - The company has successfully completed its first five-year plan in Fengxian, achieving an annual revenue of 2.6 billion from its commercial projects [4]. - Longfor's projects in Fengxian, including high-quality residential developments, have attracted a loyal customer base, referred to as "Longfans" [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Location and Amenities - The "Yuhujing" project is strategically located at the intersection of Nan Feng Road and Jin Hai Road, making it a central hub in Fengxian [6]. - The area boasts a variety of high-quality resources, including commercial, educational, and medical facilities, enhancing the attractiveness of the location for potential homeowners [8]. - Key amenities include the Fengxian Tianjie shopping center and the Shanghai Fish, which are significant landmarks that contribute to the area's appeal [10]. Group 3: Luxury Features of Yuhujing - The project features a 1,500 square meter "Yuhujing" pool club, designed to cater to high-end lifestyles with facilities such as a gym, yoga room, and lounge [11]. - Yuhujing incorporates artistic elements and luxury materials, including rare stones and globally sourced trees, to create a unique living experience [12][13]. - The residential units range from 107 to 175 square meters, with a focus on low-density living, which is increasingly valued in urban development [14].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.19 四平八稳，轻装上阵 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——地产 5 月观察及数据点评 | [table_Authors] 涂力磊(分析师) | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 陈昭颖(研究助理) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号S0880525040101 | S0880518010002 | S0880125042226 | 本报告导读： 5 月楼市运营延续 4 月，整体呈现四平八稳状态，结合十五五规划，接下来的亮点 预计将在两个维度展开，一是城市更新，二是企业新商业模式。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 5 月行业走势较为平稳，整体延续此前趋势，结合到国常会对进一 步推动房地产市场止跌回稳的定调，整体符合市场预期。相比于 4 月，5 月单月大多数据处于窄幅波动区间，如，销售面积同比 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]