Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit decline in 2024 are primarily due to the development business, while the operational and service segments show steady growth, contributing 70% to gross profit [2][12]. - The company is expected to face a peak in public debt repayment in 2025, but operational loans are anticipated to provide support for repayment [12]. - By the end of 2025, the company's financial pressure is expected to significantly ease, leading to a potential increase in free cash flow and improved investment cycles [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, total revenue was 127.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29%, with a pre-tax profit of 18.7 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The core net profit for 2024 was 6.97 billion yuan, reflecting a 38% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.96, 1.05, and 1.14 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.5, 8.7, and 8.0 [12][3]. Business Segment Analysis - The development business faced a 35% revenue decline in 2024, while operational and service businesses grew, with operational revenue increasing by 5% and service revenue by 10% [2][10]. - The company plans to open 11 shopping centers in 2025, maintaining the same number as in the previous year, indicating stability in the operational segment [11][12]. - The debt scale has been systematically reduced, with a total interest-bearing debt of 176.3 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 8% from the previous year [12][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 9.83 HKD, with a market capitalization of 67.6 billion HKD [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 6.4%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.1% [4][14]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years suggest a potential undervaluation, with the company trading at lower multiples compared to historical averages [12][14].

龙湖集团（00960.HK） 优于大市 开发业务承压，经营性业务稳步增长 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月01日 核心净利-39%。2024 年公司实现营业收入 1275 亿元，同比下降 29.5%；实 现归母净利润 104 亿元，同比下降 19.1%；剔除少数股东损益、投资性物业 和金融衍生品的公允价值变动后的核心净利润 70 亿元，同比下降 38.6%。分 不同业务看，公司物业开发业务收入 1008 亿元，占比为 79%，下降 7pct； 运营及服务业务收入分别为 135、132 亿元，占比分别为 11%、10%，分别上 升 3pct、4pct。 开发业务承压，聚焦核心城市。2024 年公司开发业务收入同比下降 35%，受 市场大势影响仍在调整阶段。公司实现销售面积 712 万平方米，同比下降 34.1%；实现销售金额 1011 亿元，同比下降 41.7%；其中长三角、西部、环 渤海、华南及华中片区销售额分别占比 29%、27%、19%、15%、10%。公司新 增拿地 9 个，总建面 83 万平方米，权益地价 51 亿元。截至 2024 年末，公 司拥有土储合计 3312 万平方米，权益面积 2426 ...

"2024年，龙湖运营及服务业务实现收入267亿元，对集团整体收入的贡献占比达到21%，并且有希望在 2028年达到收入占比过半。"3月28日，在龙湖集团控股有限公司(以下简称"龙湖集团")业绩会上，其董 事会主席兼首席执行官陈序平表示，这几年，运营及服务业务正撑起公司利润盘面。 同日，龙湖集团发布的2024年"成绩单"显示，报告期内，公司实现营业收入为1274.7亿元，股东应占溢 利(净利润)为104亿元。其中，运营及服务业务实现收入267亿元，贡献81亿元的核心净利润。 对于未来是否会"重运营、轻开发"，陈序平表示，开发、运营、服务三者齐头并进。但现阶段公司仍把 债务安全放在首位，因此债务安全优先于增量投资。开发业务会保持一定的投资强度，聚焦一二线核心 城市，选择更加有兑现把握的项目。 与此同时，面对市场对更高住房品质的追求，龙湖集团亦结合好房子的政策导向，从社区配套、产品设 计、物业服务等细节方面不断优化，推出全新的产品线——观萃。 "成都观萃开盘三个月就实现清盘，上海观萃自去年9月份首开后三开三罄，在12月底也实现清盘，可以 说观萃产品线得到市场的充分认可。"张旭忠表示。 "2028年，即使运营及服务 ...

证券研究报告 龙湖集团 (960 HK) 港股通 经营业务托底，开发业务仍待修复 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 公司发布业绩：24 年实现营收 1275 亿元，同比-29%；核心/归母净利润 70/104 亿元，同比-39%/-19%，符合业绩预告。我们认为公司开发业务短 期内仍将承压，但市场对此已有一定预期，随着经营性业务持续构筑业绩基 本盘，将一定程度上对冲地产业务下行带来的不利影响，维持"买入"评级。 经营性业务稳健增长，发挥压舱石作用 24 年公司经营性业务稳中有进，收入/毛利同比+7%+6%，占比同比+7/26pct 至 21%/70%，成为业绩压舱石。24 年公司旗下商场同店营业额同比+7%（高 于社零增速），整体出租率同比+1pct 至 97%，租金收入同比+7%至 110 亿 元；冠寓租金收入/服务业务收入同比+4%/+10%至 27/132 亿元，均实现稳 健增长。25 年公司计划新开业商场 11 个，对应总开业面积将同比+12%， 有望支持经营性业务利润进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][20] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in performance, but its diversified business segments are showing stable growth, leading to an optimized profit structure [8][9] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 127.475 billion and a net profit of 10.401 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.5% and 19.1% respectively [7][8] - The core net profit for 2024 was 69.7 billion, down 38.6% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations [8] - The company’s real estate settlement revenue decreased by 35% to 100.8 billion, while its operational and service revenue increased by 7.3% to 26.7 billion, contributing to 70% of gross profit [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 93.681 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.976 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.5% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0 [7][9] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2025 [7] Business Performance - The company’s sales for 2024 were 1,011 billion, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.12 million square meters, a decrease of 34% [8] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, securing only 9 plots for a total of 11.5 billion, a 69% decrease year-on-year [8] - The company’s diversified business segments, including shopping malls and property management, have shown stable growth, with operational service revenue increasing by 7.3% [8] Debt and Financial Health - The company remains in a healthy financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.2% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% as of the end of 2024 [8] - The company’s financing cost has decreased to 4.0%, reflecting a 24 basis point year-on-year decline [8] - The company has a long debt maturity profile, with an average term of 10.3 years [8]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported strong financial performance for 2024, with total revenue of RMB 127.47 billion and net profit of RMB 10.4 billion, highlighting the resilience of its operational and service segments amid a challenging real estate market [1][3] Financial Performance - Longfor's operational and service business generated revenue of RMB 26.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, contributing 21% to total revenue [1] - The company achieved a net debt ratio of 51.7% by the end of 2024, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.63 [1] - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.1 per share, with a total dividend payout of RMB 0.32 per share for the year, representing a payout ratio of approximately 30% [2] Sales and Market Position - Longfor maintained a stable sales figure exceeding RMB 100 billion, ranking among the top tier in the industry, with a total contract sales of RMB 101.12 billion for 2024 [3] - The company reported a sales return rate exceeding 100%, with significant sales in 19 cities across the country [3] Strategic Focus - Longfor aims to balance its revenue structure between development and operational services by 2028, prioritizing debt safety over new investments [3] - The company plans to launch over RMB 160 billion in saleable inventory, with more than 80% located in first- and second-tier cities [4] Operational Insights - Longfor's operational business, excluding tax rental income, reached RMB 13.52 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 75% [7] - The commercial segment generated rental income of RMB 10.98 billion, with a 7% increase and a significant rise in both sales and foot traffic [9][11] Land Acquisition and Development - In 2024, Longfor acquired land reserves totaling 830,000 square meters, with an average acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter [5] - The company maintained a cautious investment approach despite a recovering land market, focusing on strategic locations and avoiding aggressive bidding [6] Debt Management - Longfor's financial discipline has led to a reduction in total borrowings to RMB 176.32 billion, down over RMB 30 billion from peak levels, with a significant shift towards operational property loans [22][23] - The average financing cost decreased to an annual rate of 4%, with a loan maturity of 10.27 years, indicating a stable debt structure [22]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group emphasizes prioritizing debt safety over incremental investment in its 2024 annual performance report, reflecting a cautious approach amid industry challenges [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Longfor Group achieved a revenue of 127.47 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.4 billion yuan, with a core net profit of 6.97 billion yuan after excluding fair value changes, resulting in a gross margin of 16% [2][4]. - The operational and service segment generated 26.71 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for approximately 21% of total revenue, up from 9% two years ago, contributing around 8 billion yuan to core net profit [4]. Debt Management - As of the end of 2024, Longfor Group's total borrowings amounted to 176.32 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 16.3 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, with cash on hand at 49.42 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 51.7% [10][12]. - The company aims to reduce overall debt to around 140 billion yuan by the end of 2025, with a focus on optimizing the financing structure and extending debt maturity [12]. Land Acquisition and Development Strategy - In 2024, Longfor Group acquired nine plots of land in major cities, adding a total construction area of 830,000 square meters, with an equity area of 390,000 square meters, bringing total land reserves to 33.12 million square meters [5]. - The company plans to maintain a steady investment strategy while ensuring debt repayment safety, with expectations of significant sales opportunities in 2025 [5][12]. Future Growth Expectations - Longfor Group's commercial segment is projected to achieve over 10% growth in 2025, driven by ongoing adjustments and upgrades to existing projects and the opening of a new shopping mall [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Longfor Group's financial performance in 2024, showcasing a revenue of RMB 127.47 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10.401 billion, with a core profit of RMB 6.97 billion after adjustments [1][2] - The operating and service business revenue reached RMB 26.71 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, with a gross profit margin of 16.0% [1] - The company achieved contract sales of RMB 101.1 billion, with over 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities, and a collection rate exceeding 100% [1] Group 2 - Longfor Group has been focusing on high-tier cities, delivering approximately 100,000 quality housing units across 43 cities in the past year, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 90% [2] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's total land reserves amounted to 33.12 million square meters, with an average cost of RMB 4,304 per square meter [2] - The land reserves are distributed across various regions, with the Bohai Rim, Western, Central China, Yangtze River Delta, and Southern regions accounting for 34.6%, 27.6%, 15.0%, 13.9%, and 8.9% of the total area, respectively [2]

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 101.12 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 7.124 million square meters[2] - Revenue reached RMB 127.47 billion, with operating and service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.71 billion[2] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was RMB 10.40 billion, with core profit after tax at RMB 6.97 billion, resulting in a core profit margin of 6.4%[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 11.67 billion, down from RMB 15.68 billion in the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.58, while core basic earnings per share were RMB 1.06[2] - Total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 127,474,948,000, a decrease of 29.5% from RMB 180,736,575,000 in 2023[14] - Adjusted profit for the development segment was RMB 1,317,707,000, down 89.1% from RMB 12,078,240,000 in the previous year[14] - The total adjusted profit for the company was RMB 15,399,594,000, a decrease of 37.2% from RMB 24,528,297,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10,401,171 in 2024, down from RMB 12,850,011 in 2023, a decrease of 19.1%[34] Debt and Liquidity - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion[2] - Total borrowings decreased by 8.5% year-on-year to RMB 176.32 billion, with an average financing cost of 4.0%[2] - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased by RMB 16.3 billion to RMB 176.3 billion, with an average financing cost reduced to 4.00%[42] - The group’s debt is approximately 86.4% denominated in RMB, with 13.6% in foreign currencies, and all foreign currency borrowings are hedged against exchange rate risks[72] - The group has a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times, indicating a stable liquidity position[74] Assets and Liabilities - Investment properties increased to RMB 210.92 billion, up from RMB 199.75 billion year-on-year[5] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 47.95 billion from RMB 59.22 billion year-on-year[5] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 420,164,974,000 from RMB 463,948,608,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a consolidated asset total of RMB 665,641,785,000, down from RMB 700,406,875,000 in 2023[17] - The company’s trade payables and accrued construction costs totaled RMB 40.56 billion in 2024, down from RMB 42.48 billion in 2023[40] Revenue Segments - Revenue from external customers in the development segment decreased to RMB 100,766,610,000, a decline of 35.4% compared to RMB 155,857,211,000 in 2023[18] - The service segment's revenue increased to RMB 13,186,068,000, up 10.4% from RMB 11,943,543,000 in 2023[18] - Revenue from rental income was RMB 13,522,270,000, an increase of 4.5% from RMB 12,935,821,000 in 2023[18] - The company’s smart living services generated revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8%[44] - The property management segment achieved revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, managing a total area of 410 million square meters by year-end[78] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.10 per share, totaling an annual dividend of RMB 0.32 per share[2] - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 688,816,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 1,516,104,000 for 2023[32] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes nine members, with Chen Xuping serving as both the chairman and CEO, which deviates from the corporate governance code[92] - The company is committed to high standards of corporate governance to enhance performance and company value[87] - The audit committee consists of three independent non-executive directors who reviewed the accounting principles and financial reporting matters[86] Strategic Initiatives - The group has invested over RMB 2 billion in public welfare, benefiting 2.34 million people across the country[48] - All new projects meet the national green building star rating standards, reflecting the group's commitment to low-carbon principles[48] - The group aims to enhance its corporate governance system to ensure high-quality and sustainable development[48] - The group plans to open 11 new shopping malls in 2025, focusing on cities like Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing, while maintaining a balanced development approach[77] Operational Highlights - The company delivered approximately 100,000 quality housing units across 43 cities in the past year, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 90%[42] - The commercial segment achieved a rental rate of 97% by the end of 2024, contributing to stable operating profits and cash flow[43] - The average daily foot traffic for the year was 3.28 million visitors[58] - The overall gross profit margin for operations was 75.0%, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year[54] Land Reserves and Acquisitions - The total land reserve of the group as of December 31, 2024, is 33.12 million square meters, with an equity area of 24.26 million square meters and an average cost of RMB 4,304 per square meter[66] - In 2024, the group acquired a total of 830,000 square meters of new land reserves, with an equity area of 390,000 square meters and an average equity acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter[66] - The land reserves are distributed regionally, with the Bohai Rim region accounting for 34.6%, the Western region 27.6%, the Central China region 15.0%, the Yangtze River Delta region 13.9%, and the South China region 8.9%[66]

龙湖资料图。 标普惠誉为何先后下调龙湖评级？ 王琳 风云变幻的房地产市场中，曾经的房企优等生也难以独善其身。 3月7日，龙湖集团发布盈利警告公告，2024年，龙湖集团剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具 公平值变动影响后的股东应占核心溢利预计录得约35%至40%的下降，2023年这一数据是 113.5亿元，照此计算，2024年这一数据预计为68.1亿元至73.8亿元。 对于下降原因，龙湖集团称，主要由于受房地产行业下行的影响，公司地产开发业务的结算 收入及结算毛利率下降所致。 在此之前的3月5日，标普将龙湖集团的长期发行人信用评级从"BB+"下调至"BB"，同时，标 普将该公司的高级无抵押票据的长期发行评级从"BB"下调至"BB-"。2024年10月，惠誉将龙 湖集团的长期外币发行人违约评级(IDR)、高级无抵押评级及其未偿高级票据评级从"BB+"下 调至"BB"，对IDR的展望为负面。 评级下调反映了评级机构对龙湖集团未来偿债能力和运营状况的担忧，可能进一步增加其融 资成本与市场压力。在房地产行业的下行大势中，龙湖集团努力通过多元化业务布局和降杠 杆策略来应对挑战，尽管相对稳健，但仍难以完全抵御行业整体下滑带来的 ...