证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议明确化解风险，稳定楼市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/12/6-25/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.3%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.7%、 沪深 300 下跌 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分 别为：三湘印象(+12.1%)、南都物业(+7.6%)、京基智农(+5.1%)、苏州高新 (+4.2%)、世联行(+2.9%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：海泰发展(-18.2%)、ST 中迪 (-15.5%)、*ST 阳光(-11.7%)、中天服务(-11.0%)、*ST 荣控(-11.0%)。 联系人 板块表现： 数据跟踪： ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of Longfor Commercial's year-end promotional event "Tianjie Happy Season," which aims to boost consumer spending during the holiday season in North China [1][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Tianjie Happy Season" will take place from December 19 to 21, featuring various engaging activities across nine Tianjie locations in North China, in collaboration with over a hundred quality brands [1][8]. - Activities include artistic performances, educational events, and family-friendly entertainment, enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [3][4]. Group 2: Specific Activities - Changying Tianjie will host a special variety show in collaboration with the Beijing Opera and a comedy show, along with an international shell exhibition and knowledge lectures [4]. - Other Tianjie locations will feature unique events such as a Christmas market, a mobile museum, and a birthday celebration for local celebrities, creating a festive atmosphere [6][8]. Group 3: Promotional Offers - The event includes significant promotional offers, such as a 3000 Longzhu coupon for every 1200 yuan spent, and exclusive discounts on high-end brands like CHANEL, DIOR, and GUCCI [8][10]. - Various Tianjie locations will also offer unique products and special discounts, ensuring a diverse shopping experience for different consumer segments [10]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The "Tianjie Happy Season" aims to transform shopping malls into community-centric spaces that enhance lifestyle quality by combining shopping, entertainment, and emotional engagement [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the evolution of enterprise-level AI from being mere conversational agents to becoming integral business executors, highlighting the need for a comprehensive transformation in organizations to fully leverage AI capabilities [2][3]. Group 1: AI Implementation Strategy - The COO of Qian Ding Data Science, Wei Zhenhua, outlines a six-step methodology for implementing AI in enterprises, which includes recognition, value identification, platform establishment, knowledge construction, application, and evolution [6][8]. - The first step, "Recognition," focuses on achieving consensus on AI transformation across all organizational levels, emphasizing the importance of understanding AI's role and dispelling fears of job displacement [8][9]. - The second step, "Value," stresses the need to identify high-value scenarios for AI application, ensuring that quality data is available for effective AI training [9][10]. Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Knowledge Management - The third step, "Platform," discusses the necessity of building an AI agent platform tailored for enterprise needs, addressing issues such as business familiarity, permission management, and quantifiable outcomes [10][11]. - The fourth step, "Knowledge," highlights the importance of constructing a knowledge engineering framework to support AI learning, ensuring that AI systems are equipped with relevant internal data and context [10][11]. - The fifth step, "Application," focuses on user adoption, advocating for user-friendly interfaces and seamless integration of AI capabilities into existing business systems [10][11]. Group 3: AI Evolution and Practical Applications - The sixth step, "Evolution," involves continuous improvement of AI systems through iterative training and evaluation, utilizing a DMRE (Data, Model, Reward, Evaluation) framework to enhance agent capabilities over time [10][11]. - The article presents six practical applications of AI agents across various business domains, including remote inspection, energy management, asset operation, customer service, workflow automation, and employee training, demonstrating significant efficiency gains and cost reductions [13][14]. - For instance, the energy management AI agent has helped reduce overall energy consumption by approximately 27%, managing an annual electricity cost of 320 million yuan [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...

Group 1 - The number of private real estate companies is gradually decreasing, with only 45 remaining as of January-November 2025, down from around 70 before 2021 [3][5] - Among the top ten real estate companies, only one is a private firm, indicating a shift in capital preference towards state-owned enterprises and larger firms [5][6] - Despite the overall decline, 28 private firms have maintained stable operations, with six companies showing significant sales growth of over 50% in 2025 [6][7] Group 2 - Established private firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group are focusing on core cities, with Binjiang Group being the only private company expected to maintain a sales scale of around 100 billion yuan [14][16] - Binjiang Group has acquired 21 projects with a total land value of 377.2 billion yuan, primarily in Hangzhou, which contributes significantly to its sales [14][15] - The strategy of focusing on first and second-tier cities is becoming a consensus among large real estate companies to ensure inventory turnover and reduce operational risks [17] Group 3 - Emerging private companies such as Bangtai Group and Jiari Construction are achieving growth through regional focus and product innovation [21][24] - The number of private firms with high new land value has doubled in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a potential for more companies to emerge successfully [21][22] - Local small and medium-sized enterprises are leveraging regional advantages to thrive in niche markets, such as Haicheng Group's expansion into central Chongqing [24][25] Group 4 - The real estate industry is still facing multiple challenges, with many firms adopting price-for-volume strategies leading to declining profit margins [25][26] - Companies are encouraged to focus on long-term strategies, emphasizing product quality and operational efficiency to navigate the new market cycle [26][34] - The trend towards government-supported construction of safe, comfortable, and green housing is expected to enhance product quality in the industry [26]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of commercial spaces in the Yangtze River Delta, highlighting the innovative practices initiated by Longfor Group, particularly the renovation of Shanghai Hongqiao Tiandi as a starting point for a broader "explosive transformation" in commercial complexes [1][24]. Group 1: Urban Landmark and Experience Enhancement - The Suzhou Shishan Tiandi is undergoing a self-renewal process, transforming its previously enclosed ice rink into a vibrant "valley" street, emphasizing the need for physical retail to attract younger consumers amidst the rise of online shopping [3]. - The renovation includes a significant design feature: a large skylight that allows natural light to flood the space, enhancing the overall ambiance and experience for visitors [5][7]. Group 2: Nature Integration and Brand Collaboration - The design team has incorporated various natural elements, including selected trees and stone-like textures, to create a "breathable narrative" that allows visitors to escape the urban pace and find tranquility [9][10]. - The renovated space has successfully attracted 19 unique brands, with over 70% being flagship stores, fostering a collaborative environment where brands contribute to the overall narrative of the "valley" [10][12]. Group 3: Systematic Transformation Across Locations - Longfor's approach to commercial transformation has evolved from individual projects to a systematic strategy, with each shopping center developing its unique "new field" [13]. - The Shanghai Minhang Tiandi has enhanced its outdoor street by widening walkways and adding social spaces, transforming it into a lively social square that attracts foot traffic and supports brand upgrades [13][15]. Group 4: Future-Oriented Design and Community Engagement - The renovation of Shanghai Huajing Tiandi has shifted from a traditional supermarket to a boutique lifestyle space, catering to the needs of local families and professionals seeking quality and efficiency [18]. - The Shanghai Baoshan Tiandi focuses on activating social value in its outdoor areas by introducing flexible commercial modules and a diverse brand mix, aiming to establish itself as a community social hub [20][22]. Group 5: Continuous Evolution and Market Response - Longfor's ongoing renovations reflect a commitment to creating spaces that resonate with consumers, emphasizing the importance of human-centric design in the rapidly changing commercial landscape [24][26]. - The company has demonstrated the effectiveness of both comprehensive and lightweight renovations, achieving immediate positive feedback in terms of foot traffic and rental income [26][28].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a profound self-reform, focusing on quality and resilience, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which is seen as a vibrant economic hub [2] - A number of benchmark real estate companies are innovating across various dimensions, including product quality, technology integration, and comprehensive service systems, aiming to create safe, comfortable, green, and smart living experiences [2] Award Winners - **Poly Developments Guangdong Company**: Recognized for enhancing product and service quality, embodying the "Three Good Concepts" and "Good House Strategy," and establishing a resilient development ecosystem [4] - **Yuexiu Property**: Celebrated for its commitment to "achieving a better life" and its competitive advantage through a unique business model that integrates development, operation, and finance [7] - **New World China**: Acknowledged for its long-term commitment to the Greater Bay Area and its active participation in high-quality development and social responsibility [9][10] - **Greentown China (South China Region)**: Awarded for transitioning from "building houses" to "creating lifestyles," focusing on comprehensive service and living upgrades in the Bay Area [12][13] - **Zhujiang Real Estate**: Recognized for its innovative approach and contribution to urban development, particularly with its flagship projects in Guangzhou [14] High-Quality Delivery Companies - **Guangzhou Metro Real Estate**: Noted for applying high standards of quality management from metro construction to real estate development, establishing a reliable delivery benchmark in the Bay Area [17] - **Sun Hung Kai Properties**: Celebrated for its extensive experience in Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and its role in creating iconic urban landmarks in the Greater Bay Area [19] - **Longfor Group**: Acknowledged for its extensive project development and commitment to quality, having delivered over 1 million housing units [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced a significant rise following the Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and addressing key risks in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major real estate stocks such as Shimao Group, Ronshine China, and Vanke Enterprises saw increases of over 5%, while Sunac China rose by 4.5% [1]. - Other companies like Greentown China, Agile Group, Jin Hui Holdings, and Country Garden also reported gains exceeding 3% [1]. - The overall positive sentiment in the market is reflected in the performance of various real estate stocks listed in the table, with notable increases across the board [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Central Economic Work Conference, held on December 10-11, outlined strategies to stabilize the real estate market, including city-specific policies to control supply and reduce inventory [1]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of reforming the housing provident fund system and promoting the construction of quality housing [1]. - Measures to address local government debt risks were discussed, emphasizing proactive debt management and the prevention of new hidden debts [1].