Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in November 2025, reflecting a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - The express delivery volume during the e-commerce Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to increase by 9% year-on-year, a significant decrease from the 21% growth rate observed in 2024 [1][2]. - The average daily volume during the shopping festival is 1.18 times that of regular days, with a peak daily volume increase of 6.6% year-on-year, indicating a diminishing marginal effect of the shopping festival on consumer spending [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Share - The implementation of anti-involution policies has effectively increased the revenue per package, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing revenue increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan respectively from July to November [3]. - The market concentration in the express delivery sector has stabilized, with the CR8 index remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a balanced market share among major players [3]. - The market shares for Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu in Q3 2025 were 19.4%, 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, showing slight fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Profitability Recovery - The anti-involution measures have contributed to a recovery in profitability, with Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting net profit margin changes of -0.9%, +0.07%, -1.5%, and +0.5% year-on-year respectively [3]. - The trend of profitability recovery is expected to continue into Q4, contingent on the sustained implementation of anti-involution policies [3][4]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Competitive Strategies - The anti-involution policies initiated by the State Post Bureau have effectively countered "involution-style" competition, supported by local postal authorities through price and market share supervision [4]. - The positive effects of the anti-involution measures are anticipated to continue, promoting healthy competition and profitability within the industry [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is viewed positively, with recommendations for leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and high growth in overseas volumes [5]. - SF Express is noted for its proactive market expansion strategy, which is expected to yield positive results as cost control measures are strengthened [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of January 9, a total of 73 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from Lingxiong Technology (02436), Delai Construction (01546), and Zhipu (02513) showing significant growth rates of 104.99%, 38.89%, and 22.22% respectively [1]. 52-Week Highs - Lingxiong Technology (02436) closed at 11.760, with a peak price of 15.600, achieving a high rate of 104.99% [1]. - Delai Construction (01546) closed at 0.161, reaching a maximum of 0.250, with a high rate of 38.89% [1]. - Zhipu (02513) had a closing price of 158.600 and a peak of 165.000, resulting in a high rate of 22.22% [1]. - Other notable stocks include Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) with a high rate of 20.64% and Rongda Technology (09881) at 12.87% [1]. 52-Week Lows - The stocks reaching their 52-week lows include Lishi International (00842) with a closing price of 0.850, marking a decline of 39.29% [2]. - Bokan Vision Cloud - B (02592) closed at 2.930, with a decrease of 16.90% [2]. - Lingzai Technology Finance (00093) reached a low of 0.485, reflecting a drop of 14.77% [2].

极兔去年第四季的海外业务增长动力强劲，东南亚及新兴市场表现均超出预期，其中东南亚/新兴市场 分别增长73.6%/增79.7%。主要驱动力来自TikTok Shop加大投资及极兔市占率进一步提升。新兴市场 79.7%的年增长率表现强劲，主要受益于与TikTok Shop及拉美电商平台MELI合作带来的强劲动能。 花旗发布研报称，将极兔速递-W(01519)2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调2%、5%及3%，并基于海外 动能加速，将估值倍数从先前预测今年市盈率25倍提升至30倍。目标价由12港元上调至15港元，评 级"买入"，维持行业首选股之列。 ...

极兔去年第四季的海外业务增长动力强劲，东南亚及新兴市场表现均超出预期，其中东南亚/新兴市场 分别增长73.6%/增79.7%。主要驱动力来自TikTok Shop加大投资及极兔市占率进一步提升。新兴市场 79.7%的年增长率表现强劲，主要受益于与TikTok Shop及拉美电商平台MELI合作带来的强劲动能。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，将极兔速递-W（01519）2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调2%、 5%及3%，并基于海外动能加速，将估值倍数从先前预测今年市盈率25倍提升至30倍。目标价由12港元 上调至15港元，评级"买入"，维持行业首选股之列。 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，极兔速递去年第四季的海外业务增长动力强劲，东南亚及新兴市场表现均超出预 期，分别增长73.6%/79.7%，主要驱动力来自TikTok Shop加大投资及极兔市占率进一步提升。鉴于最新 的营运数据，该行将极兔2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调2%、5%及3%，并基于海外动能加速，将估 值倍数从先前预测今年市盈率25倍提升至30倍；目标价由12港元上调至15港元，评级"买入"，维持行业 首选股之列。 ...

海外市场增长潜力大，中国市场输出先进经验 (1)东南亚市场：东南亚人均包裹量与中国相比有4.9倍提升空间，尚属发展早期。公司在成本、服务方 面竞争力领先，持续获得平台业务增量，增量助力规模效应降本形成良性循环。(2)新市场：新市场渗 透率与中国相比仍处于较低水平，随着公司加大投入完善网络服务质量，以及主要客户对新市场的持续 开拓，该行预计公司在新市场的发展将进入快车道。(3)中国市场：中国市场是公司全球扩张的基本 盘，公司将国内成熟的快递经验输出到海外，助力海外市场实现高效运营。 风险提示 2026年1月7日，极兔速递披露2025Q4经营数据。2025Q4，公司实现业务量84.6亿票，同比+14.5%，其 中公司在东南亚/中国/新市场分别完成24.4/58.9/1.3亿票。 海外市场维持高增长，中国市场高质量发展 (1)东南亚市场：2025Q4，公司在东南亚件量同比增长73.6%，在高基数的背景下继续保持高增长。(2) 新市场：新市场电商渗透率较低，人均包裹量潜力大，随着公司网络服务质量提高获取更多单量，公司 在新市场件量增长逐渐加速，2025Q4公司新市场件量同比增速环比2025Q3提高31.8pct。(3 ...

智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，维持极兔速递-W(01519)"买入"评级，公司处于快速发展阶 段，具备高成长性，极兔速递2025年第四季度业务量达84.6亿票，同比增长14.5%。公司在东南亚市场 表现突出，件量同比增长73.6%；新市场增速环比提升，发展加速；中国市场竞争中转向高质量发展。 整体来看，公司在海外市场依托规模效应和服务优势持续高增长，并将国内成熟运营经验输出至全球网 络。 财通证券主要观点如下： 近期事件 2026年1月7日，极兔速递披露2025Q4经营数据。2025Q4，公司实现业务量84.6亿票，同比+14.5%，其 中公司在东南亚/中国/新市场分别完成24.4/58.9/1.3亿票。 (1)东南亚市场：2025Q4，公司在东南亚件量同比增长73.6%，在高基数的背景下继续保持高增长。(2) 新市场：新市场电商渗透率较低，人均包裹量潜力大，随着公司网络服务质量提高获取更多单量，公司 在新市场件量增长逐渐加速，2025Q4公司新市场件量同比增速环比2025Q3提高31.8pct。(3)中国市场： 中国快递行业件量增速逐步放缓，公司主动进行策略调整，加强网络建设，追求有质量的增长。 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：韩军/梁骁 核心观点 2025 年第四季度，公司总体实现包裹量84.6 亿件，同比增长14.5%，日均包裹量9,200 万件。2025 年全 年，公司总体包裹量首次突破300 亿件大关，达301.3 亿件，同比增长22.2%，日均包裹量8,250 万件， 同比增长22.6%。极兔整体实现稳健增长，主要得益于东南亚和新市场强劲的业务表现，以及中国市场 的稳定贡献。2025 年全球超300 亿个包裹将是公司新起点。未来公司将继续强化全球网络，以创新驱动 增长持续满足市场需求。 投资逻辑 1、东南亚快递市场稳固的龙一地位 东南亚是极兔的核心基本盘，按包裹量计，已经连续6 年排名第一。伴随业务规模提升，单均成本持续 优化，公司将降本收益持续让利给客户。不仅实现了对中小型快递公司的出清，也持续拉开与电商自建 物流竞对的差距。 2、TikTok 全球电商发展的影子股 TikTok 从2024 年开始加速在海外市场的电商业务拓展，主要聚焦东南亚、拉美和欧洲市场。由于其发 展初期，超高的订单增速，以及不自建物流的发展战略，极兔由于其网络健全性和较高性价比，成为 TikTok 电商商业模式成立的核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express has shown strong growth in its operational performance, particularly in Southeast Asia, while facing challenges in the Chinese market. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the Southeast Asian logistics sector due to strategic investments and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 8.461 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%. The Southeast Asian package volume reached 2.436 billion pieces, up 73.6%, while the Chinese package volume was 5.891 billion pieces, down 0.4% [1]. - The new market package volume reached 134 million pieces in Q4 2025, marking a 79.7% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Jitu Express is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in Southeast Asia, with package volume projected to reach 7.366 billion pieces in Q4 2025, reflecting a 67.8% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by increased investments from e-commerce platforms and promotional activities [1]. - The company has established nine new transfer centers and added 80 self-owned transport vehicles in new markets, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Due to the better-than-expected growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, Jitu Express has revised its profit forecasts upward. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47%, respectively [2].

大和发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)去年第四季的东南亚及新市场增长超出预期，主要由于在线销售 渗透率提高和增加平台投资。该行重申对其"买入"评级，目标价由12.5港元上调至14.5港元，并将其 2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调4%至37%，列为行业首选股。 该行认为，鉴于去年第四季包裹量增长超出预期，对极兔今年在东南亚和新市场的包裹量增长预测，由 原来的25%至30%，上调至30%至35%，同时预计中国的均价压力将有所缓和。 ...