该行认为，鉴于去年第四季包裹量增长超出预期，对极兔今年在东南亚和新市场的包裹量增长预测，由 原来的25%至30%，上调至30%至35%，同时预计中国的均价压力将有所缓和。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)去年第四季的东南亚及新市场增长超出预 期，主要由于在线销售渗透率提高和增加平台投资。该行重申对其"买入"评级，目标价由12.5港元上调 至14.5港元，并将其2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调4%至37%，列为行业首选股。 ...

美银证券发表研究报告指，极兔速递于去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现 突出。数据显示，东南亚每日平均包裹量按年增长73.6%至2650万件，新市场每日包裹量增长79.7%至 145万件，两者均超出预期。基于第四季度表现超出预期，美银将极兔速递2025至2027财年的non-IFRS 盈利预测上调2至3%，并将目标价轻微上调至12.8港元，重申其为2026年的行业首选，评级"买入"。 ...

大和发表研究报告指，极兔速递去年第四季的东南亚及新市场增长超出预期，主要由于在线销售渗透率 提高和增加平台投资。该行重申对其"买入"评级，目标价由12.5港元上调至14.5港元，列为行业首选 股，并将2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调4%至37%。该行认为，鉴于去年第四季包裹量增长超出预 期，对极兔今年在东南亚和新市场的包裹量增长预测，由原来的25%至30%，上调至30%至35%。 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，2025年11月全行业快递件量同比+5%，继续维持个位数增速。反内卷下行业份额 集中趋缓，中通/圆通/韵达/申通25Q3净利率分别同比-0.9/+0.07/-1.5/+0.5pct，环比 +4.8/+0.5/-0.07/+0.6pct，头部企业普遍实现盈利能力修复，预计Q4盈利修复趋势将持续。考虑本轮反内 卷取得的良好效果，以及快递企业盈利修复后的正反馈效应，预计反内卷政策将有望持续，在件量继续 稳健增长的基础上保障行业良性竞争与盈利能力继续修复。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 快递件量增速Q4降至个位数，双十一大促峰值继续平滑 2025年11月全行业快递件量同比+5%，继续维持个位数增速。过去两年轻小件是驱动件量维持较快增长 的重要驱动，2025年7月以来快递反内卷有效推动电商快递行业性价格修复，推测或影响轻小件增长趋 势并提升快递需求品质。其中，电商双十一大促期间件量同比+9%，较2024年大促日均件量21%的增速 放缓，或源于2024年大促首次大幅延长造就高基数，及2025年大促进一步提前启动致件量前移。 大促日均件量是日常的1.18倍，单日件量峰值同比+6.6%，均连续三年收窄，反映大促 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4, raising non-IFRS profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 by 2-3% and slightly increasing the target price to HKD 12.8, reaffirming it as the industry favorite for 2026 with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Q4 Performance - J&T Express recorded strong parcel volume growth in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] - Southeast Asia's average daily parcel volume reached 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while new market parcel volume grew by 79.7% to 1.45 million daily, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 2: Market Growth Drivers - Strong growth in the Southeast Asian market is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and ongoing capacity expansion, including the addition of 1,000 service points and three new automated sorting systems [1] - This expansion is expected to support a target of 5-10% annual unit cost reduction [1] - Brazil is identified as a key growth driver in emerging markets, while Mexico's parcel volume remains positive despite tariff impacts [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Despite an overall slowdown in the Chinese market, J&T Express maintained profitability by focusing on high-value business and reverse logistics [2] - Core clients such as Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok continue to drive order growth, with Mercado Libre's expanding demand injecting new momentum into new markets [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, Bank of America forecasts parcel volume growth of 43% in Southeast Asia and 49% in new markets [2]

极兔速递在去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现突出。数据显示，东南亚每 日平均包裹量达2650万件，同比增长73.6%，新市场包裹量增长79.7%至每日145万件，两者均超出预 期。 美银在报告中指出，东南亚市场的强劲增长来自于电商渗透率提升及公司持续进行的产能扩张，包括新 增1000个营业点及新增3套自动化分拣系统，预计这将支持每年5至10%单位成本下降的目标。而在新兴 市场方面，巴西成为增长的主要驱动力，墨西哥包裹量虽受关税影响，但仍保持正增长，本地化物流模 式转型和半托管电子商务模式，对拥有全国性物流网络布局的公司如极兔有望带来利好。 尽管中国市场整体增长放缓，但极兔速递通过聚焦高价值业务及逆向物流，维持了盈利能力。美银认 为，核心客户如Temu、SHEIN及TikTok持续带来订单增长，而美客多（Mercado Libre）的需求扩大也 为新市场注入新动力。展望2026年，美银预测东南亚和新市场包裹量将分别增长43%与49%。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)第四季度表现超出预期，将极兔速递 2025至2027财年的non-IFRS盈利预测上调2至 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，上调极兔速递-W(01519)盈利预测，维持"增持"评级。公司 四季度东南亚及新市场件量均超预期快速增长，因此该行上调极兔速递25E-27E盈利预测，预计公司25- 27年调整后净利润分别为3.87/6.02/8.88亿美元（原假设25E-27E调整后净利润为3.68/5.92/8.53亿美 元），同比分别增长93.01%/55.69%/47.47%，对应PE分别为33x/21x/15x。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 事件：极兔速递发布25年第四季度经营数据。公司第四季度整体包裹量达84.61亿件，同比增长14.5%， 其中东南亚包裹量达24.36亿件，同比增长73.6%；中国包裹量达58.91亿件，同比下降0.4%；新市场包 裹量达到1.34亿件，同比增长79.7%。 极兔在东南亚地区持续高增长，稳固行业领先地位 2025年四季度公司在东南亚地区包裹量延续高增速，达到73.6%，2025年全年公司在东南亚地区的包裹 量达到76.6亿件，同比增长67.8%，主要得益于四季度电商平台在东南亚地区持续加大投入，通过促销 活动不断丰富品类，促进流量高速增长，同时极兔凭借成本效率优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Jitu Express (极兔速递-W) has had its profit forecast raised by Shenwan Hongyuan, maintaining an "overweight" rating due to better-than-expected growth in package volume in Southeast Asia and new markets in Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Jitu Express for 2025-2027 are now estimated at $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of $3.68 billion, $5.92 billion, and $8.53 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rates for the adjusted net profits are projected to be 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 33x, 21x, and 15x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Group 2: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the total package volume reached 8.461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 2.436 billion packages (up 73.6%) and China contributing 5.891 billion packages (down 0.4%) [2] - The new market package volume reached 134 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.7% [2] Group 3: Southeast Asia Growth - Jitu Express maintained a high growth rate in Southeast Asia, with Q4 2025 package volume growing by 73.6%, and an annual total of 7.66 billion packages, representing a 67.8% increase [3] - The growth is attributed to increased investments by e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia, promotional activities, and the company's cost efficiency, which has enhanced its market share [3] Group 4: New Market Development - In Q4 2025, the new market business volume reached 13 million packages, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with an annual total of 40.4 million packages, up 43.6% [4] - The growth is driven by the gradual improvement of the company's express network, which can accommodate more business from e-commerce platforms [4] - In 2025, the company established 9 new transfer centers, added 80 self-owned trunk transport vehicles, and introduced 9 automated sorting lines to enhance operational efficiency and service quality in new markets [4]

（原标题：港股异动 | 极兔速递-W(01519)续涨超3% 去年四季度东南亚及新市场件量均快速增长） 智通财经APP获悉，极兔速递-W(01519)续涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.45%，报11.98港元，成交额1.08亿 港元。 消息面上，极兔速递日前公布，2025年第四季度，公司总体实现包裹量84.6亿件，同比增长14.5%。 2025年全年，公司总体包裹量首次突破300亿件大关，达301.3亿件，同比增长22.2%。此外，在东南 亚，极兔2025年第四季度实现包裹量24.4亿件，同比增长73.6%；新市场包裹量达到1.34亿件，同比增 长79.7%。申万宏源指，公司四季度东南亚及新市场件量均超预期快速增长，因此上调极兔速递25E- 27E盈利预测。 ...

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express (极兔速递) has shown significant growth in parcel volume, with a notable increase in both overall and regional performance, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts by analysts [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q4 2025, J&T Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.46 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the company surpassed the 30 billion parcel mark for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion parcels, which is a 22.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Regional Growth - In Southeast Asia, J&T Express reported a parcel volume of 2.44 billion in Q4 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 73.6% [1] - The new market segment contributed a parcel volume of 134 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.7% [1] Group 3: Analyst Revisions - Shenwan Hongyuan has upgraded the profit forecasts for J&T Express for the years 2025 to 2027 due to the strong performance in parcel volume in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets, which exceeded expectations [1]