港股物流板块走强，中通快递(02057.HK)涨超7%，极兔速递(01519.HK)涨超5%，圆通速递国际 (06123.HK)、顺丰控股(06936.HK)等跟涨。 ...

本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 7月30日，极兔速递-W(01519)盘中下跌2.01%，截至10:54，报10.7元/股，成交3.93亿元。 极兔速递环球有限公司是一家全球综合物流服务运营商，在中国和东南亚等全球最大及增长最快的电商 市场占据领先地位，业务覆盖13个国家。公司运营238个大型转运中心、19100个网点，拥有40万名服务 人员，并与7200个网络合作伙伴合作，致力于提供高效、智能的全球物流解决方案。 截至2024年年报，极兔速递-W营业总收入737.47亿元、净利润7.23亿元。 ...

Core Points - The China Securities Index AH Economic Growth Index has shown significant growth, with a 7.97% increase over the past month, 10.26% over the last three months, and a year-to-date increase of 13.34% [1] - The index comprises financially sound leading companies from both mainland and Hong Kong markets, reflecting the performance of companies benefiting from changes in the national economic structure [1] - The index's top ten holdings include Tencent Holdings (9.46%), Alibaba-W (9.43%), Meituan-W (3.83%), Yum China (3.37%), Jiangsu Bank (3.03%), Jitu Express-W (2.96%), Muyuan Foods (2.56%), Dekang Agriculture (2.43%), Wens Foodstuff Group (2.3%), and China Telecom (1.84%) [1] Market Composition - The index's market composition shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 52.86%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 30.81%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 16.33%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.00% [1] - In terms of industry representation, the index has 20.08% in industrials, 19.84% in consumer discretionary, 15.61% in communication services, 11.42% in information technology, 9.15% in consumer staples, 8.30% in financials, 6.14% in materials, 4.91% in healthcare, 1.69% in utilities, 1.68% in energy, and 1.18% in real estate [2] Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample changes, and in special circumstances, temporary adjustments may be made [2]

Core Viewpoint - As of July 18, 160 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from China New Economy Investment (00080), Aoyuan Group Equity (02905), and Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) showing high growth rates of 288.89%, 55.28%, and 50.00% respectively [1][2]. Summary by Category 52-Week High Performers - China New Economy Investment (00080) closed at 0.440, with a peak price of 0.700, achieving a growth rate of 288.89% [2]. - Aoyuan Group Equity (02905) closed at 0.218, with a peak price of 0.250, achieving a growth rate of 55.28% [2]. - Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) closed at 0.221, with a peak price of 0.228, achieving a growth rate of 50.00% [2]. - Other notable performers include Hualian International (00969) with a growth rate of 40.13% and Zhongke Bio (01237) with a growth rate of 37.25% [2]. Additional High Performers - Wanma Holdings (06928) closed at 0.550 with a growth rate of 30.43% [2]. - Lepu Biopharma-B (02157) closed at 7.940 with a growth rate of 24.54% [2]. - Other stocks with significant growth include ZhiJianYueDong (06860) at 17.14% and China Jindian Group (08281) at 17.12% [2]. 52-Week Low Performers - The document also lists stocks that reached their 52-week lows, with XI Ernan CO-U (09311) showing a decline of 16.10% [6]. - Other notable declines include XI Ernan CO (07311) at -12.62% and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at -5.70% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Southeast Asia's e-commerce demand is driving significant growth for the company, with a notable increase in business volume and effective pricing strategies [1][2] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 1.69 billion parcels in Southeast Asia, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.9%, up from 50.0% in Q1 2025 [1] - The company is expected to maintain its aggressive pricing strategy to capture more market share, despite a significant drop in revenue per parcel in H2 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company is continuously investing in cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a significant increase in the number of operational vehicles and automated sorting equipment across its markets [2] - In Southeast Asia, the company operates 5,400 line-haul vehicles, an increase of 1,600 vehicles year-on-year, and has invested in 57 sets of automated sorting equipment [2] - The growth in e-commerce and the rise of social commerce in China present opportunities for the company to diversify its customer base and expand its market presence [2] Group 3 - The rapid growth in business volume is expected to enhance the company's economies of scale and improve profitability, with projected revenues of $11.85 billion, $13.38 billion, and $14.99 billion for 2025-2027 [3] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, with projections of $368 million, $611 million, and $897 million for the same period, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 266%, 66%, and 47% respectively [3] - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 15.2, based on a 30x PE for Southeast Asia operations and a 10x PE for China operations [3]

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The report highlights that Guoquan (锅圈) is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan in H1 2024 [4] - The core operating profit for Guoquan is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, up approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by revenue growth and operational efficiency improvements [4] - Guoquan continues to implement its community central kitchen strategy, expanding its instant retail store network and enhancing store operational efficiency through a multi-channel approach [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Jitu Express (极兔速递) has seen a significant increase in business volume, achieving 1.69 billion parcels in Q2 2025, a year-on-year growth of 65.9%, benefiting from the e-commerce demand in Southeast Asia and effective pricing strategies [8][9] - The company is expected to maintain its aggressive pricing strategy to capture more market share, with a projected revenue growth of 16% to 149.94 billion yuan by 2027 [11] - The report indicates that the demand for AI chips in China is anticipated to reach approximately 50 billion USD in the next two to three years, with Nvidia's H20 chip resuming supply in China potentially boosting its market presence [14][18] Group 3: Collaborations and Partnerships - Shengqu Games (盛趣游戏) has entered into a deep cooperation agreement with Tianqiong Interactive to explore the multi-dimensional value of the "Legend" IP, which is expected to enhance the ecosystem of these classic IPs in the mobile and film sectors [22] - The partnership allows Tianqiong Interactive exclusive rights to various derivative products related to the "Legend" and "Legend World" games, while Shengqu Games will focus on developing official products to improve user experience [22] Group 4: Policy and Urban Development Insights - The report discusses the central urban work conference held in July 2025, emphasizing the need for cities to transition from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality, aligning with the "People's City" concept [24][25] - It outlines the importance of innovation, livability, environmental sustainability, resilience, and cultural preservation in building "good cities" that meet the aspirations of the people [25][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the release of e-commerce demand in Southeast Asia and effective pricing strategies, leading to accelerated business volume growth [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 1.69 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.9%, up from 50.0% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is projected to continue its aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share, despite a significant drop in revenue per parcel in H2 2024 [3]. Business Volume Growth - The company’s business volume in Southeast Asia is expected to increase, with a projected market share rise from 28.6% in 2024 [2]. - In H1 2025, the company completed 3.23 billion parcels in Southeast Asia, 1.06 billion in China, and 17 million in new markets, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.9%, 20.0%, and 21.7% respectively [2]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through increased capital investment in machinery and vehicles, with a total of 5,400 operational trucks in Southeast Asia as of H1 2025, an increase of 1,600 trucks year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from economies of scale and refined management practices, which will help maintain cost reductions across its three markets [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach $11.85 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 16% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $368 million in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 266% [13]. - The report estimates a target price of HKD 15.2 based on a 30x PE for the Southeast Asia market and a 10x PE for the China market [13].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 14, a total of 138 stocks reached their 52-week highs, indicating a strong performance in the market, with notable leaders including Green Heart Group Holdings, OK Blockchain, and Pearl River Steel Pipe [1]. Group 1: Top Performers - Green Heart Group Holdings (02999) achieved a closing price of 0.013 with a peak of 0.017, marking a 70.00% increase [1]. - OK Blockchain (01499) closed at 0.680, reaching a high of 0.690, reflecting a 48.39% rise [1]. - Pearl River Steel Pipe (01938) had a closing price of 0.335 and a peak of 0.340, resulting in a 33.33% increase [1]. Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Weishi Jiajie (00856) saw a 32.01% increase, closing at 8.870 with a high of 11.300 [1]. - Cloud Intelligence (09678) reached a high of 520.000, closing at 510.000, which is a 20.99% increase [1]. - China Chengtong Development Group (00217) closed at 0.165 with a peak of 0.166, marking a 14.48% rise [1]. Group 3: Additional Stocks with Significant Increases - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460) closed at 1.380, reaching a high of 1.430, which is a 14.40% increase [1]. - Taited Pharmaceutical (03880) had a closing price of 36.950 and a peak of 37.400, reflecting a 13.85% rise [1]. - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) closed at 0.850 with a high of 0.960, resulting in a 12.94% increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has shown significant growth in parcel volume across various regions, driven by the expansion of e-commerce platforms, leading to an optimistic outlook for market share and profitability [1][2][3] Group 1: Operational Data - In Q2, J&T Express reported a parcel volume increase of 65.9% year-on-year in Southeast Asia, reaching 1.69 billion parcels, and a 14.7% increase in China, totaling 5.61 billion parcels [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total parcel volume increased by 27.0% year-on-year to 14 billion parcels, with Southeast Asia, China, and new markets growing by 57.9%, 20.0%, and 21.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is projected to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [1] - J&T Express has maintained its position as the largest express delivery company in Southeast Asia since 2021, with a market share of 28.6% in 2024, expected to rise to 30% in 2025 [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing net profit estimates by 5% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 3% for 2027, resulting in projected net profits of $360 million, $690 million, and $900 million respectively [3] - The target price for J&T Express has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.8, reflecting a higher price-to-earnings ratio due to the company's superior growth prospects compared to industry averages [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in global package volume, driven by significant performance in the Southeast Asian market and stable growth in China, leading to a maintained buy rating. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's global package volume reached 7.39 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [1] - The Southeast Asian market showed robust growth, with package volume increasing by 65.9% to 1.69 billion pieces, achieving a record high growth rate since its listing [1] - The Chinese market maintained steady growth, with package volume reaching 5.61 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] - New market package volume increased by 23.7% to 8.94 million pieces [1] Group 2: Efficiency and Automation - The company enhanced its operational efficiency through structural adjustments, adding 700 new outlets in Southeast Asia and reducing 300 outlets in China to focus on a "smaller but more efficient" model [2] - The number of mainline vehicles in Southeast Asia increased by 800 to accommodate rapid package volume growth [2] - In China, while the number of third-party vehicles decreased by 600, the number of automated sorting lines increased by 44 to 270, highlighting the company's strategy of "technology-driven efficiency" [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Southeast Asian e-commerce boom is expected to continue supporting the company's growth, aided by strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms like Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop [3] - During a promotional event on June 6, 2025, Southeast Asia's cross-border e-commerce GMV surged by 123%, with order volume and active product counts also showing significant increases [3] - The Chinese market is anticipated to see a release in profit margins due to efficiency optimization and government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in competition [3] - The company projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 yuan per share [3]