Core Viewpoint - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total package volume of 8.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with an average daily package volume of 92 million. For the entire year of 2025, the total package volume surpassed 30 billion for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with an average daily package volume of 82.5 million, up 22.6%. The overall growth of J&T Express is attributed to strong performance in Southeast Asia and new markets, along with stable contributions from the Chinese market. The global package volume exceeding 30 billion in 2025 marks a new starting point for the company. The company will continue to strengthen its global network and drive growth through innovation to meet market demand [1][2][3]. Investment Logic - Southeast Asia maintains a solid leading position in the express delivery market, ranking first in package volume for six consecutive years. As the business scale increases, the company continues to optimize unit costs, allowing for cost reductions that benefit customers. This has led to the elimination of smaller express companies and a widening gap with competitors who have self-built logistics [5][6]. - J&T Express is positioned as a shadow stock benefiting from TikTok's global e-commerce expansion, which will accelerate in overseas markets starting in 2024, focusing on Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Due to its robust network and high cost-performance ratio, J&T Express supports TikTok's e-commerce business model [6][7]. Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the package volume in Southeast Asia reached 2.436 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while the total annual package volume for 2025 was 7.66 billion, up 67.8%. This growth is driven by increased investment from e-commerce platform clients, promotional activities, and a diverse range of product categories [2][3]. - The Chinese market saw a Q4 package volume of 5.89 billion, a slight decline of 0.4%, with an annual package volume of 22.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. The slowdown in the Chinese express delivery industry is evident, prompting the company to adjust its strategy for quality growth [3][4]. - New markets experienced a Q4 package volume of 134 million, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with an annual volume of 404 million, up 43.6%. The low e-commerce penetration rate and the company's continuous improvement of the express network contribute to this growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - 2026 is expected to be a turning point for business explosion and profitability in the Latin American market, with e-commerce growth in 2025 exceeding the global average. The partnership with the largest e-commerce platform in Latin America, Mercado Libre, and the fastest-growing TikTok is anticipated to double order growth in 2026 [2][7]. - The company forecasts package volumes of 30.1 billion and 35.1 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.2% and 16.6%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $980 million and $1.44 billion for 2025 and 2026, with net profits of $260 million and $545 million [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express has shown strong growth in its operational performance, particularly in Southeast Asia, while facing challenges in the Chinese market. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the Southeast Asian logistics sector due to strategic investments and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 8.461 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%. The Southeast Asian package volume reached 2.436 billion pieces, up 73.6%, while the Chinese package volume was 5.891 billion pieces, down 0.4% [1]. - The new market package volume reached 134 million pieces in Q4 2025, marking a 79.7% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Jitu Express is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in Southeast Asia, with package volume projected to reach 7.366 billion pieces in Q4 2025, reflecting a 67.8% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by increased investments from e-commerce platforms and promotional activities [1]. - The company has established nine new transfer centers and added 80 self-owned transport vehicles in new markets, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Due to the better-than-expected growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, Jitu Express has revised its profit forecasts upward. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47%, respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4 last year for growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, primarily due to increased online sales penetration and enhanced platform investments [1] Group 1: Company Performance - J&T Express's Q4 package volume growth surpassed expectations, prompting an upward revision of the package volume growth forecast for this year in Southeast Asia and new markets from 25%-30% to 30%-35% [1] - The company is now considered a top pick in the industry, with Daiwa maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price from HKD 12.5 to HKD 14.5 [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Daiwa has increased its earnings per share forecast for J&T Express for the years 2025 to 2027 by 4% to 37% [1] - The report anticipates a moderation in average price pressure in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4 last year for growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, driven by increased online sales penetration and platform investments [1] Group 1: Company Performance - J&T Express's Q4 package volume growth surpassed expectations, prompting an upward revision of the package volume growth forecast for this year in Southeast Asia and new markets from 25%-30% to 30%-35% [1] - The company’s earnings per share forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 4% to 37% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating on J&T Express, raising the target price from HKD 12.5 to HKD 14.5 [1] - The average price pressure in China is expected to ease [1]

美银证券发表研究报告指，极兔速递于去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现 突出。数据显示，东南亚每日平均包裹量按年增长73.6%至2650万件，新市场每日包裹量增长79.7%至 145万件，两者均超出预期。基于第四季度表现超出预期，美银将极兔速递2025至2027财年的non-IFRS 盈利预测上调2至3%，并将目标价轻微上调至12.8港元，重申其为2026年的行业首选，评级"买入"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that J&T Express exceeded expectations in Southeast Asia and new market growth in Q4 last year, driven by increased online sales penetration and platform investments [1] - The target price for J&T Express has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 14.5, and it is classified as the industry’s preferred stock [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 4% to 37% [1] Group 2 - The forecast for package volume growth in Southeast Asia and new markets for J&T Express has been revised upward from 25%-30% to 30%-35% due to the unexpected growth in package volume in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in express delivery volume by November 2025, indicating a continued trend of slow growth and effective implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The express delivery volume growth rate is expected to drop to single digits in Q4, with the Double Eleven shopping festival showing a year-on-year increase of 9%, a slowdown compared to the 21% growth in 2024 [2]. - The anti-involution measures implemented since July 2025 have effectively driven price recovery in the e-commerce express delivery sector, which may influence the growth trend of small and light packages and enhance the quality of express delivery demand [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Share - The anti-involution policies have led to an increase in single-package revenue, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan per package respectively since July [3]. - The market concentration has stabilized, with the industry CR8 remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a slight recovery in market share for YTO since Q4 2025, attributed to AI integration and infrastructure upgrades [3]. - The net profit margins for major companies in Q3 2025 were as follows: Zhongtong -0.9%, YTO +0.07%, Yunda -1.5%, and Shentong +0.5% year-on-year, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in Q4 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures have been effectively enforced, with the State Post Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involutionary" competition, leading to price stabilization and gradual expansion of price increases to key regions [4]. - The positive effects of the current anti-involution policies are expected to continue, supporting healthy competition and ongoing profitability recovery in the industry [4]. - Future focus should be on the regulatory strength of anti-involution measures and the competitive strategies of companies within the industry [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish rating on the express delivery sector, highlighting leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from profitability improvements and high overseas volume growth [5]. - SF Express is noted for its operational mechanisms that drive volume growth, with short-term performance fluctuations attributed to proactive market expansion strategies and necessary long-term investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4, raising non-IFRS profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 by 2-3% and slightly increasing the target price to HKD 12.8, reaffirming it as the industry favorite for 2026 with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Q4 Performance - J&T Express recorded strong parcel volume growth in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] - Southeast Asia's average daily parcel volume reached 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while new market parcel volume grew by 79.7% to 1.45 million daily, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 2: Market Growth Drivers - Strong growth in the Southeast Asian market is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and ongoing capacity expansion, including the addition of 1,000 service points and three new automated sorting systems [1] - This expansion is expected to support a target of 5-10% annual unit cost reduction [1] - Brazil is identified as a key growth driver in emerging markets, while Mexico's parcel volume remains positive despite tariff impacts [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Despite an overall slowdown in the Chinese market, J&T Express maintained profitability by focusing on high-value business and reverse logistics [2] - Core clients such as Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok continue to drive order growth, with Mercado Libre's expanding demand injecting new momentum into new markets [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, Bank of America forecasts parcel volume growth of 43% in Southeast Asia and 49% in new markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4, leading to a 2-3% upward revision of non-IFRS profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 and a slight target price increase to HKD 12.8, maintaining a "Buy" rating for 2026 as the industry favorite [1] - J&T Express recorded strong parcel volume growth in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets, with average daily parcel volume in Southeast Asia reaching 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, and new market parcel volume growing by 79.7% to 1.45 million daily, both exceeding expectations [1] - The strong growth in the Southeast Asian market is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and ongoing capacity expansion by the company, including the addition of 1,000 service points and three new automated sorting systems, which are expected to support a target of 5-10% annual unit cost reduction [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall slowdown in the Chinese market, J&T Express maintained profitability by focusing on high-value business and reverse logistics [2] - Core clients such as Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok continue to drive order growth, while the expanding demand from Mercado Libre injects new momentum into new markets [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is projected that parcel volumes in Southeast Asia and new markets will grow by 43% and 49%, respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Shenwan Hongyuan has raised the profit forecast for Jitu Express (01519) and maintains a "Buy" rating due to the company's strong growth in package volume in Southeast Asia and new markets in Q4 [1][2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Jitu Express for 2025-2027 are now estimated at $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33x, 21x, and 15x [1] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 8.461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 2.436 billion packages (up 73.6%), while China saw a slight decline of 0.4% to 5.891 billion packages [2] - The company maintained a high growth rate in Southeast Asia, with a total package volume of 7.366 billion in Q4 2025, representing a 67.8% year-on-year increase, driven by increased investments from e-commerce platforms and promotional activities [3] - In new markets, Jitu Express's package volume reached 1.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 79.7%, with an annual total of 4.04 billion packages, reflecting a 43.6% increase, attributed to the improvement of the express network and operational efficiency [4]