Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in the Southeast Asian market, with a year-on-year package volume growth of 65.9% to 1.69 billion packages in Q2 2025. The total global package volume reached 7.39 billion, reflecting a 23.5% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and operational efficiency improvements in China, which may enhance profitability under the "anti-involution" policy [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total package volume of 7.39 billion in Q2 2025, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth. The Southeast Asian market contributed significantly with a 65.9% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 14.7% growth [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively [5][7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, supported by strategic partnerships with major platforms like Shopee and Lazada. The company is positioned to capitalize on this growth, maintaining its market leadership [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to ease price competition, allowing for improved profitability in domestic operations as the company optimizes its efficiency [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.7, 18.1, and 12.8 [5][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 63.056 billion RMB in 2023 to 109.376 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express has reported significant growth in its operational data for Q2, particularly in Southeast Asia, where parcel volume increased by 66% year-on-year, indicating strong market performance and potential for continued expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: J&T Express Operational Performance - In Q2, the total average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 18.5 million parcels daily, reflecting a 66% growth [1] - For the first half of the year, the group's average daily total parcel volume was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] - The company’s parcel volume in China grew by 14.7% in Q2, reaching an average of 61.7 million parcels daily [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia E-commerce Growth - According to Momentum Works, the total GMV for Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms is projected to reach $128.4 billion by 2024, dominated by Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop [1] - TikTok Shop's GMV in Southeast Asia is expected to grow from $163 million in 2023 to $226 million in 2024, increasing its market share from 13.2% to 17.6% [2] - During a recent promotional event, TikTok Shop achieved a GMV growth of 123% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer engagement [2] Group 3: Market Position and Growth of J&T Express - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading courier operator in Southeast Asia since 2020, with a market share of 28.6% projected for 2024, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2] - The company has experienced substantial growth in parcel volume, with year-on-year increases of 87.3%, 16.3%, and 28.9% from 2021 to 2023, culminating in 3.24 billion parcels in 2023 [3] - In Q1 2025, J&T Express's parcel volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 50%, with Q2 showing an even larger increase of 66% [3] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at $3.80 billion, $5.76 billion, and $8.23 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of $4.67 billion, $6.63 billion, and $9.09 billion [4] - The estimated market value for the Southeast Asian segment is projected at $10 billion based on an EBITDA multiple of 11x for 2026 [4] - The total target market value across three markets is estimated at HKD 100.1 billion, with a target price of HKD 11.16, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for J&T Express (01519.HK) [1] Core Views - J&T Express reported a significant year-on-year increase of 66% in parcel volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, with an average daily volume of 18.5 million parcels [1][3] - The overall average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong growth of e-commerce platforms like TikTok in Southeast Asia, which is projected to reach a GMV of $128.4 billion by 2024 [1][2] - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading express operator in Southeast Asia, with a market share of 28.6% in 2024, up 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2, J&T Express's daily average parcel volume in Southeast Asia was 18.5 million, a 66% increase year-on-year, while the daily average volume in China reached 61.7 million, growing by 14.7% [1] - For the first half of the year, the total daily average parcel volume for the group was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] Market Dynamics - TikTok's e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia has been robust, with its GMV increasing from $4.4 billion in 2022 to $16.3 billion in 2023, and projected to reach $22.6 billion in 2024 [2] - J&T Express is positioned to benefit from the increasing parcel volumes driven by e-commerce growth, despite competition from platforms like Shopee and Lazada [2] Financial Projections - The target price for J&T Express is set at HKD 11.16, with the current price at HKD 8.39, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4] - Revenue projections for J&T Express are expected to grow from $10.26 billion in 2024 to $15.52 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.9% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant stock movements in the Hong Kong and US markets, indicating various companies experiencing notable gains due to specific events or developments. Hong Kong Market Highlights - Li Auto (02015) saw a rise of over 3% as the launch of the Li i8 is set for July 29 [1] - Chinese banks experienced gains, with Zhengzhou Bank (06196) up 6.06%, Minsheng Bank (01988) up 4.97%, CITIC Bank (00998) up 3.24%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) up 1.8% [1] - Jiuyuan Gene (02566) increased by over 6% following the approval of its drug by the National Medical Products Administration [1] - Conant Optical (02276) rose over 6% as its net profit is expected to increase by over 30% year-on-year [1] - Puxing Energy (00090) surged over 220% after acquiring equity in HashKey Holdings Limited, entering the digital asset finance sector [1] - Blucube (00325) saw a rise of over 8% as it faced its first share unlock, with an accelerated pace of new product launches [1] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) rose over 5% as TSMC exited the GaN business, prompting cornerstone investors to extend their lock-up period [2] - Jitu Express (01519) increased over 4% due to strong package volume performance in Southeast Asia [2] - Apple-related stocks saw gains, with Cowell (01478) up 5.14%, Sunny Optical (02382) up 4.99%, BYD Electronics (00285) up 4.67%, and AAC Technologies (02018) up 1.89% [2] - From Yuzhi Agriculture (00875) surged over 13% as the company aims to build a comprehensive modern agriculture flagship group [2] - Fenbi (02469) rose over 5% following an upgrade to its AI question-answering system, which is expected to drive performance growth [2] - E-Surfing (02550) increased over 16% after Barclays acquired a 280 million stake and partnered with Huawei Cloud [2] - Cryptocurrency ETF and related stocks rose, with New Fire Technology Holdings (01611) up 10.82%, Xiong'an Technology (01647) up 10.23%, and others [2] - Superstar Legend (06683) surged over 20% as Jay Chou joined Douyin, gaining over 10 million followers [3] - Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals (02616) rose over 4% after its drug production application was approved by NMPA [3] - Longguang Group (03380) opened over 4% higher as its debt restructuring plan was approved by creditors [3] - Saijing Technology (00580) opened over 8% after announcing a projected net profit of approximately 90 million, a 167% year-on-year increase [3] - Derin Holdings (01709) opened nearly 15% higher as it plans to tokenize up to 500 million HKD in assets for distribution to shareholders [3] US Market Highlights - Deutsche Bank (DB.US) rose over 3% as it restructures its wealth management business in Germany to improve profitability [4] - UnitedHealth (UNH.US) fell over 1% amid reports of a US Department of Justice investigation into its medical insurance billing [4] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) increased over 9% after Morgan Stanley raised its target price to 160 USD [4] - Boeing (BA.US) rose over 3% as June aircraft deliveries reached an 18-month high [4] - Meta (META.US) increased nearly 2% as it reportedly invested 3.5 billion USD to enhance its AI smart glasses business [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) rose nearly 2%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization of 4 trillion USD [4] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) hit a historic high with a market capitalization of 3.74 trillion USD, following an upgrade from Oppenheimer [4]

Market Overview - US President Trump has issued new tariff policy letters to 14 countries, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.09% to 24,148.07 points, ending a three-day decline [1] - The total trading volume for the day was HKD 213.29 billion, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has withdrawn HKD 59.072 billion in liquidity since June 28, tightening liquidity expectations in the short term [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) led blue-chip gains, rising 5.43% to HKD 2.91, contributing 1.04 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) and Chow Tai Fook (01929) also saw significant increases of 5.16% and 4.42%, respectively [2] - However, Orient Overseas International (00316) and China Biologic Products (01177) experienced declines, dragging down the index [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks rebounded, with Kuaishou rising over 5% and Meituan and JD.com both increasing over 2% [3] - Stablecoin concept stocks surged, with Jinyong Investment (01328) skyrocketing 533.17% after announcing a partnership with AnchorX [3] - The Macau gaming sector showed strong performance, with total gaming revenue for the first six days of July reaching MOP 4.3 billion, indicating a robust recovery [6] Solar Industry Insights - The solar sector saw strong gains, with New Special Energy (01799) up 12.65% and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 10.81% [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality in the solar industry, suggesting potential for supply-side reforms [5] Gaming Sector Developments - Macau's gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.4% and MGM China (02282) up 3.29% [6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to see double-digit year-on-year growth in July, marking a cyclical turning point for the industry [6] New Consumption Trends - New consumption stocks performed well, with brands like Blukoo (00325) and Cha Ba Dao (02555) seeing significant increases [6][7] - Gold stocks also rebounded, with Tongguan Gold (00340) rising 6.37% [7] Stablecoin Regulatory Developments - Jinyong Investment announced a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore potential collaborations in digital asset management and stablecoin applications [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is consulting the market on regulatory guidelines for stablecoins, with expectations for a limited number of licenses to be issued [4] Logistics Sector Performance - Jitu Express-W (01519) reached a new high, with a reported 23.5% year-on-year increase in package volume for Q2 2025 [9] - The company achieved a total package volume of 139.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong growth in the logistics sector [9] AI and Technology Sector Insights - Hongteng Precision (06088) saw an increase of 8.82%, driven by growing demand for AI-related solutions [10] - The company is expected to benefit from its parent group's resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power [10]

Core Insights - J&T Express reported strong growth in parcel volume for Q2 and the first half of 2025, with Q2 parcel volume reaching approximately 7.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [1] - The company achieved a total parcel volume of 13.99 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth [1] - J&T Express maintained its position as the leading express company in Southeast Asia for five consecutive years, with Q2 parcel volume in the region reaching about 1.69 billion, a remarkable 65.9% increase [1][2] Performance Metrics - Daily average parcel volume for Q2 was 81.2 million, while the first half recorded a daily average of 76.9 million [1] - In Southeast Asia, the daily average parcel volume for Q2 was 18.5 million, and for the first half, it was 17.7 million [1] - The company’s Southeast Asia parcel volume for the first half of 2025 grew by 57.9% to 3.23 billion [1][2] Strategic Collaborations - The strong performance in Southeast Asia is attributed to strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, local brands, and various industry clients, leading to mutual growth [2] - Increased promotional activities and a wider range of product offerings from e-commerce platforms significantly boosted business volume [2] - J&T Express has successfully positioned itself as an independent enabler for e-commerce, leveraging high-quality services to capitalize on the overall growth of the e-commerce sector in the region [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices opened higher on July 8, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.17%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.28%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.22% [1] Future Market Outlook - Guoyuan Hong Kong anticipates that policy measures may be introduced in the second half of the year to counteract tariff impacts, supporting the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, which are expected to maintain resilience in the medium to long term [2] - According to CMB International, as of the end of June, the Hang Seng Index approached its yearly high, primarily driven by a decline in risk premiums, while the contribution from fundamental earnings improvement was relatively limited. Southbound capital has shown a strategic increase in holdings across various sectors, particularly in healthcare and finance, reflecting a focus on high-growth sectors and defensive high-dividend stocks [2] - CITIC Securities predicts that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance asset quality and liquidity, with continued inflow of southbound capital. The market is expected to trend upwards in the third quarter, with potential earnings upgrades in the fourth quarter due to domestic growth stabilization policies [3] Sector Focus - Everbright Securities notes that in the short term, the Hong Kong market may experience volatility due to liquidity constraints and uncertainties in U.S.-China relations. However, the long-term outlook remains strong, with relatively high profitability in the market and attractive valuation for sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - China Merchants Securities highlights the stability and strong dividend capacity of the infrastructure sector, recommending attention to the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure dividend assets, especially during a rate-cutting cycle [6] Company News - BYD Company Limited has signed a cooperation framework agreement with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology to establish a joint laboratory focusing on robotics and intelligent manufacturing, with an investment of several tens of millions of Hong Kong dollars over the coming years [7] - Jitu Express reported a total parcel volume of 7.3916 billion for the second quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and expects a total of 13.991 billion parcels by mid-2025, a growth of 27.0% [7] - China Carbon Neutrality has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Zhonghong Lanhai to collaborate in the fields of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, with a total investment of approximately 10 billion RMB [7] - Conant Optical anticipates a net profit increase of no less than 30% year-on-year for the first half of the year [8] - Dongfeng Motor Group reported a cumulative automobile sales figure of 824,000 units for the first six months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 14.7% [9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 3, a total of 120 stocks reached their 52-week highs, indicating a strong market performance with notable leaders in the list [1]. Group 1: Top Performers - The top three stocks with the highest increase rates are: - 富誉控股 (Fuyou Holdings) at 90.76%, closing at 0.435 with a peak of 0.475 [1] - 信义能源 (Xinyi Energy) at 65.00%, closing at 1.200 with a peak of 1.980 [1] - 中国三三传媒 (China San San Media) at 42.86%, closing at 1.710 with a peak of 1.900 [1] Group 2: Additional Notable Stocks - Other notable stocks include: - ITE HOLDINGS at 34.21% increase, closing at 0.047 with a peak of 0.051 [1] - 星凯控股 (Xingkai Holdings) at 30.00%, closing at 0.480 with a peak of 0.650 [1] - 北京北辰实业股份 (Beijing Beichen Industrial) at 26.47%, closing at 0.940 with a peak of 1.290 [1] Group 3: Overall Market Trends - The overall trend shows a significant number of stocks achieving new highs, reflecting positive investor sentiment and market conditions [1].

Core Points - The China Securities Index (CSI) Huaxia AH Economic Growth Index reported a value of 6611.27 points, showing a monthly increase of 0.34%, a quarterly decrease of 3.58%, and a year-to-date increase of 6.87% [1] Group 1: Index Composition - The CSI Huaxia AH Economic Growth Index selects financially sound growth-leading companies from both mainland and Hong Kong markets to reflect the performance of companies benefiting from economic structural changes [1] - The index is based on a starting point of 1000.0 points as of December 31, 2004 [1] Group 2: Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the index include Tencent Holdings (9.74%), Alibaba-W (9.69%), Meituan-W (4.05%), Yum China (3.36%), Jiangsu Bank (3.31%), Muyuan Foods (2.39%), Wens Foodstuff Group (2.31%), Jitu Express-W (2.17%), China Telecom (2.0%), and Kingsoft (1.98%) [1] Group 3: Market Distribution - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 52.26%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 31.63%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 16.12%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.00% [1] Group 4: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index includes Consumer Discretionary (20.41%), Industrials (19.36%), Communication Services (16.20%), Information Technology (11.50%), Financials (8.89%), Consumer Staples (8.56%), Materials (5.81%), Health Care (4.67%), Utilities (1.76%), Energy (1.67%), and Real Estate (1.18%) [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with sample changes, and temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [2]