Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is expected to see a significant increase in parcel volume and revenue, with a focus on the "anti-involution" trend that is easing competitive pressures and potentially improving profitability in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In September 2025, the national express delivery parcel volume reached 16.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while the total volume from January to September was 145.08 billion, up 17.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The express delivery industry revenue in September 2025 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, although the average revenue per parcel decreased by 4.9%. For the first nine months, revenue grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a 7.1% decline in average revenue per parcel [4][5]. Group 2: E-commerce Express Delivery - Major e-commerce express delivery companies such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported parcel volume growth in September 2025 of 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5% respectively, with year-to-date growth rates of 19.4%, 13.0%, and 17.1% [2][3]. - The average revenue per parcel for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong in September 2025 showed slight increases, while their year-to-date figures reflected declines of 4.9%, 5.7%, and 2.0% respectively [4][5]. Group 3: Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is increasing, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9% in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2025, the market shares of leading companies such as YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu were 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, with slight changes compared to Q2 [3]. Group 4: Pricing Trends - The decline in average revenue per parcel has narrowed in September 2025, indicating a reduction in price competition due to the "anti-involution" measures. This trend is expected to continue, promoting healthier competition in the long term [4][5]. - The average revenue per parcel for SF Express in September 2025 decreased by 13.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 13.0% [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to alleviate competitive pressures, with expectations for profitability recovery in e-commerce express delivery in the latter half of the year. Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases [6]. - Companies with strong performance growth, such as SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda, are recommended for investment [6].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Multiple companies conducted share buybacks on October 28, 2025, with China Feihe (06186) leading in both the number of shares repurchased and the total amount spent. Group 1: Buyback Details - China Feihe (06186) repurchased 5.174 million shares for a total of 21.6293 million yuan, representing 0.209% of its total share capital [1][2] - Lianyi Rong Technology (09959) repurchased 1.4625 million shares for 4.7622 million yuan, accounting for 3.638% of its total share capital [2] - Zhongxu Future (09890) repurchased 301,400 shares for 4.4130 million yuan, which is 1.270% of its total share capital [2] Group 2: Other Notable Buybacks - Mengniu Dairy (02319) repurchased 300,000 shares for 4.2977 million yuan, representing 0.563% of its total share capital [2] - Jitu Express (01519) repurchased 385,000 shares for 3.8812 million yuan, which is 0.014% of its total share capital [2] - Kangning Jereh Pharmaceutical (09966) repurchased 320,000 shares for 3.7683 million yuan, accounting for 0.117% of its total share capital [2] Group 3: Additional Companies Involved - Other companies involved in the buyback include: - Guichuang Tongqiao-B (02190) with 50,000 shares repurchased for 1.2065 million yuan [2] - Green City Services (02869) with 208,000 shares repurchased for 969,700 yuan [2] - Tianfu (06868) with 2,000 shares repurchased for 60,400 yuan [3]

Group 1 - The company Jitu Express (极兔速递-W, 01519) announced a share buyback plan [1] - The total amount allocated for the buyback is HKD 3.8812 million [1] - The company plans to repurchase 385,000 shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express-W (01519.HK) announced a share buyback of 385,000 shares at a cost of HKD 3.88 million on October 28 [1] Group 1 - The company executed a buyback program, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [1] - The total expenditure for the buyback was HKD 3.88 million, reflecting the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders [1] - The number of shares repurchased was 385,000, which may influence the stock's liquidity and market perception [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express-W (01519) announced a share buyback plan, investing HKD 3.8812 million to repurchase 385,000 shares on October 28, 2025 [1] Company Summary - The company is set to repurchase a total of 385,000 shares [1] - The total expenditure for the buyback is HKD 3.8812 million [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 極兔速遞環球有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2025年10月28日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01519 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | ...

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the trend of "anti-involution" in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, significantly increasing the per-package revenue for companies and is expected to improve the profitability of e-commerce express delivery firms in the second half of this year and next year, with profitability elasticity depending on the sustainability of price increases [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of small-package delivery continues, with the industry expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume. By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating counter-cyclical growth [1] - The consumption potential in lower-tier markets, such as the central and western regions and rural areas, is being released, which is expected to contribute to resilient growth in industry business volume in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the express delivery industry's per-package revenue was 7.48 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to a 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in price competition under the "anti-involution" regulation [1] - The upcoming peak season for e-commerce is anticipated to stabilize and repair express delivery prices in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The weakening of economies of scale is noted, with the core cost per package declining at a slower pace. As transportation and transfer costs have limited room for reduction, the introduction of unmanned vehicle technology is expected to lower the delivery costs at the final stage [2] - New social security regulations are expected to lead to a short-term increase in per-package costs, but in the long term, they may drive the industry towards a value competition transformation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains an outperform rating for Jitu Express (01519), projecting profits of $319 million and $470 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37x and 25x. The target price remains at HKD 11.1, indicating a 9% upside from the current price [1]. Group 1: Southeast Asia Market - Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, benefiting from the growth of social e-commerce and the optimization of the express delivery landscape in 2025 [2]. - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%, while competitors saw declines in their market shares [2]. - The trend of free shipping in Southeast Asia's e-commerce is anticipated to further stimulate online shopping habits, allowing Jitu Express to leverage its scale for cost advantages [2]. Group 2: New Markets - The logistics industry in Latin America is still in its early stages, with Jitu Express positioned to benefit from increasing e-commerce penetration [3]. - The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has seen significant growth, indicating a rising demand for logistics services in the region [3]. - Jitu Express is expected to maintain high growth in shipment volumes as it serves both Chinese outbound e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms [3]. Group 3: China Market - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges due to price wars, but there may be relief in the second half of the year as "anti-involution" trends emerge [4]. - The company is under observation for its cost optimization progress, which could impact its performance in the competitive Chinese market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains an outperform rating for Jitu Express (01519), projecting earnings of $319 million and $470 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37x and 25x. The target price remains at HKD 11.1, indicating a 9% upside from the current price [1]. Group 1: Southeast Asia Market - Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, benefiting from the growth of social e-commerce and the optimization of the express delivery landscape in 2025 [2]. - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%, while competitors saw declines in their market shares [2]. - The trend of free shipping in Southeast Asia's e-commerce is anticipated to further stimulate online shopping habits, allowing Jitu Express to leverage its scale for cost advantages [2]. Group 2: New Markets - The logistics industry in Latin America is still in its early stages, with Jitu Express positioned to benefit from increasing e-commerce penetration [3]. - The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has seen significant growth, indicating a rising demand for logistics services in the region [3]. - Jitu Express is expected to maintain high growth in shipment volumes as it serves both Chinese e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms [3]. Group 3: China Market - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges due to price wars, but there may be relief in the second half of the year as the industry observes cost optimization progress [3].

Company Overview - The company reported Q3 2025 operational data showing a 79% year-on-year increase in Southeast Asia business volume to an average of 21.7 million items per day, a 10% increase in China business volume to 60.6 million items per day, and a 48% increase in new market business volume to 1.1 million items per day, indicating better-than-expected performance in international market share expansion [1]. Southeast Asia Market - The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, driven by the growth of social e-commerce, with a potential turning point in the express delivery landscape by 2025. The EBIT per parcel is anticipated to remain stable [1]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is still in a high growth phase, with trends towards free shipping likely to further stimulate online shopping habits. The company, as the leading express delivery service, is expected to leverage its scale advantages to widen the gap with other third-party logistics providers [1]. - The market shares of the fourth and fifth-ranked third-party logistics providers have decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 5.5% and by 0.9 percentage points to 4.4%, while the company’s market share has increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8% [1]. New Market Development - The new market is still in its early development stage, with the company’s parcel volume expected to grow significantly alongside the penetration of e-commerce. The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has increased 45 times from $1 million in May to $46.135 million in August [2]. - As a third-party logistics provider for both Chinese outbound e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising e-commerce penetration rates [2]. China Market Outlook - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges from price wars in China, but a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year may improve conditions. The company is monitoring cost optimization progress [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected profits in China, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 8% and 12% to $319 million and $470 million, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37 and 25 [2]. - The target price remains unchanged, reflecting a 9% upside potential based on P/E ratios of 40 and 27 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2].