Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm anticipates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] Company Analysis - MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are highlighted as top picks, with expectations that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, adjusting the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, with the target price remaining at HKD 23 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The firm expects Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators' properties to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and by 6% year-on-year, indicating potential margin improvements despite high operating expenses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] Industry Summary - The forecast indicates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] - Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators is expected to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year, despite high operating expenses, with potential improvements in profit margins [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley continues to favor MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as top picks, anticipating that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, a "Market Perform" rating is given, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, with a target price reduced from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 23 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie expresses optimism about Galaxy Entertainment (00027) due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply, with the upcoming full operation of the Galaxy Hotel expected to enhance its share in the premium mass market [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Galaxy Entertainment is anticipated to benefit from the opening of the Galaxy Hotel, which is expected to boost its market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Macquarie suggests investors reassess Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282), highlighting both companies' potential for market share growth and attractive valuation levels [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Third-party data indicates that Macau's gaming revenue increased by 32% year-on-year over the past week, with improvements in the first week of the month, suggesting a return of major players to gaming activities post-Asian Games [1] - Average daily gaming revenue in the mass market grew by 5% to 8% compared to November, while VIP room daily gaming revenue increased by 6% to 8%, with VIP win rates ranging from 2.9% to 3.2%, down from 3.2% to 3.5% in November [1] - Macquarie expects December gaming revenue to maintain the momentum from the previous month, projecting a double-digit year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Market Share Expectations - Macquarie forecasts that Wynn Macau (01128) and SJM Holdings (00880) will capture the most market share in November, with increases of 1.5 and 1 percentage points, respectively, while Sands China and MGM China are expected to each gain 0.5 percentage points [1] - Sands China's market share has steadily rebounded over the past few months, reaching a 13-month high of 24.5% in November [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie is optimistic about Galaxy Entertainment (00027) due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply, with the upcoming opening of the Galaxy Hotel expected to enhance its market share in the premium mass segment [1] Company Analysis - Galaxy Entertainment is expected to benefit from the opening of the Galaxy Hotel by the end of this year, which will likely boost its market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282) are recommended for investors to reassess, as both companies possess growth advantages in market share and attractive valuation levels [1] Industry Insights - Third-party data indicates that Macau's gaming revenue increased by 32% year-on-year over the past week, with improvements in the first week of the month compared to the previous month, suggesting a return of major players to gaming activities post-Asian Games [1] - Average daily gaming revenue in the mass market grew by 5% to 8% compared to November, while VIP room daily gaming revenue increased by 6% to 8%, with VIP win rates ranging from 2.9% to 3.2%, down from 3.2% to 3.5% in November [1] - Macquarie anticipates that December's gaming revenue will maintain the momentum from the previous month, with a year-on-year double-digit growth expected [1] Market Share Projections - Macquarie predicts that Wynn Macau (01128) and SJM Holdings (00880) will gain the most market share in November, with increases of 1.5 and 1 percentage points, respectively, while Sands China and MGM China are expected to each gain 0.5 percentage points [1] - Sands China's market share has steadily rebounded over the past few months, reaching a 13-month high of 24.5% in November [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue increased by 32% year-on-year in the past week, with improvements in the first week of this month, suggesting that major players may be re-engaging in gaming activities post the National Games [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The report anticipates that December's gaming revenue will maintain the momentum from the previous month, projecting a double-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The strong performance in Macau's gaming sector is attributed to the re-engagement of key players in the market [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - Macquarie expresses a positive outlook on Galaxy Entertainment, highlighting its robust property project reserves and ample hotel room supply [1] - The anticipated full operation of the Galaxy Macau's Capella Hotel by the end of this year is expected to enhance its market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Investors are encouraged to reassess Sands China and MGM China, as both companies possess advantages in market share growth and attractive valuation levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first seven days of December reached 5.2 billion MOP, showing a daily average of approximately 742 million MOP, which is over a 5% increase from November and more than a 25% increase year-on-year, despite a low base [1] Industry Summary - If the optimistic growth trend continues until the end of the month, the total gaming revenue for Q4 could increase by 18% to 19% year-on-year and 8% to 9% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a six-year high, significantly above the bank's and market's expectations of 13% to 14% [1] - The current industry valuation is considered extremely low, with a projected EV/EBITDA ratio of 9 times for 2026, below the historical average of 13 times [1] - An increase of 1 times in valuation multiples could enhance equity value by over 15%, and if valuations return to historical averages, the total market capitalization of the sector could rise by more than 60% [1] Company Summary - In the short term, the company is optimistic about Sands China (01928), anticipating an announcement of increased dividends for 2026 by the end of February, along with expected improvements in market share and profit share for Q4; a target price of 24.5 HKD is set with a "Buy" rating [1] - For the long term, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is maintained as a preferred choice due to its strong value and long-term growth potential, with the fourth phase development project expected to reflect in the stock price next year; a target price of 50 HKD is also set with a "Buy" rating [1] - The company continues to recommend avoiding Melco International Development (00200) and Austar International Holdings (00880), assigning "Reduce" and "Neutral" ratings respectively [1]

Group 1 - The bank is optimistic about Sands China (01928) in the short term, expecting the company to announce an increase in dividends for 2026 by the end of February, along with anticipated improvements in market share and profit share for Q4 [1] - The long-term preference remains for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) due to its strong value and growth potential, with a target price of HKD 50 and a rating of "Buy" [1] - The bank advises to avoid Melco International Development (00200) and SJM Holdings (00880), assigning "Reduce" and "Neutral" ratings respectively [1] Group 2 - According to Morgan Stanley, Macau's total gaming revenue for the first seven days of December reached MOP 5.2 billion, averaging about MOP 742 million per day, which is over a 5% increase from November and more than 25% year-on-year [2] - In an optimistic scenario, if the growth continues until the end of the month, Q4 gaming revenue could increase by 18% to 19% year-on-year and 8% to 9% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a six-year high, significantly above the bank's and market's expectations of 13% to 14% [2] - The bank notes that the current industry valuation is very low, with a 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio of 9 times, below the historical average of 13 times, estimating that a 1-time expansion in valuation could increase equity value by over 15% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first seven days of December reached 5.2 billion MOP, averaging approximately 742 million MOP per day, representing an increase of over 5% from November and more than 25% year-on-year, albeit from a low base [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - If the optimistic scenario continues until the end of the month, the total gaming revenue for Q4 could increase by 18% to 19% year-on-year and by 8% to 9% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a six-year high, significantly above the bank's and market's expectations of 13% to 14% [1] Group 2: Company Outlook - In the short term, the company is optimistic about Sands China, anticipating an announcement in late February regarding an increase in the 2026 dividend, along with expected improvements in market share and profit share for Q4; a target price of 24.5 HKD is set with a "Buy" rating [1] - In the long term, the company maintains a preference for Galaxy Entertainment due to its strong value and long-term growth potential, with the fourth phase development project expected to reflect in the stock price starting next year; a target price of 50 HKD is also set with a "Buy" rating [1]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 金沙中國有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年12月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01928 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 16,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 160,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 16,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Macau gaming industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with total revenue reaching 21.1 billion MOP in November, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and recovering to 92% of pre-pandemic levels, marking the best recovery since the pandemic [1] - Morgan Stanley expects December gaming revenue to increase by over 15% year-on-year, with potential for growth exceeding 20%, indicating a robust fourth quarter for the Macau gaming sector [1] - The report highlights that the gaming sector's valuation has significant upside potential due to improved earnings visibility and an expanding investor base [1] Group 2 - The investment ranking provided by Morgan Stanley is as follows: Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are favored over Wynn Macau (01128) and MGM China (02282), followed by Melco Resorts (MLCO.US), SJM Holdings (00880), and New World Development (00200) [1] - The firm anticipates that Sands China may double its dividend per share in February, while MGM China might increase its payout ratio in March, reflecting operators' strong confidence in sustainable profit and cash flow growth [1] - The growth momentum in the gaming sector is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year, benefiting from a low base effect [1]