Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is crucial for modern technology, impacting various sectors from consumer electronics to military applications, and is currently facing challenges related to energy efficiency and manufacturing costs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Importance - Semiconductors are essential components in a wide range of devices, controlling systems from smartphones to military equipment [2]. - The industry is pivotal not only for information technology but also for advancements in fields like neuroscience and synthetic biology [7]. Group 2: Chip Design and Manufacturing - Chip design is an intellectual task requiring specialized tools and teams, while manufacturing is a labor-intensive process needing large factories [4][6]. - The integration of different chip functions necessitates various technologies, leading to inefficiencies in information transfer and high design costs [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - TSMC dominates the semiconductor foundry market with over 60% share, while the U.S. manufacturing capacity has significantly declined from 37% in 1990 to 12% in 2021 [7]. - The CHIPS Act was introduced to address the declining U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, but the global supply chain remains fragile [7]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Moore's Law, which predicts the doubling of transistors on chips, is facing challenges as manufacturing costs rise and energy efficiency improvements slow down [10][11]. - Innovations such as 2.5D integration and chiplets are being explored to enhance performance and efficiency while addressing the limitations of traditional semiconductor designs [25][16]. Group 5: AI and High-Performance Computing - The demand for AI and machine learning applications is driving the need for specialized processors, leading to significant investments in GPU and dedicated hardware [14][15]. - High-performance computing systems are becoming increasingly power-intensive, necessitating advanced cooling solutions to manage heat [19]. Group 6: Storage Technology - Advances in storage technologies, including 3D structures and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), are crucial for meeting the growing data demands of modern applications [21][22][23]. - Emerging storage technologies like MRAM and PCM are being developed as alternatives to traditional non-volatile memory solutions, offering advantages in speed and energy efficiency [23]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to achieve significant advancements driven by the increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing, with innovations in materials and manufacturing processes playing a key role [25][30]. - The integration of photonics and application-specific optimizations will be essential for overcoming the limitations of current semiconductor technologies [28][30].

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國上城集團有限公司 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02330 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 300,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 300,000,000 | 本月底法定/ ...

文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

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Group 1 - The semiconductor materials and equipment sector continues to adjust, but market interest remains high due to rapid growth in demand for high-end semiconductors driven by AI infrastructure [1][6] - TSMC's advanced 3nm process faces production bottlenecks, with capacity fully booked until 2027; Morgan Stanley predicts a 50% price increase for DDR4 in Q1 2026, indicating a potential "super cycle" in memory chips [1][6] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) has seen net inflows in 15 out of the last 20 trading days, totaling 855 million yuan, increasing its shares to 978 million and total assets to 1.87 billion yuan [1][6] Group 2 - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector benefits from accelerated domestic substitution, with the localization rate of semiconductor equipment steadily increasing since 2018 [1] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) and its linked funds are positioned at the intersection of the AI hardware wave and domestic substitution, with 84.8% of the index weight in semiconductor equipment and materials [1] - Since 2025, the Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index has increased by 95.21%, outperforming the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index, which rose by 89.97% during the same period [1]

Core Insights - TSMC's net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be NT$505.7 billion, with revenue expected to reach NT$1.046 trillion and a gross margin of 62.3% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit of NT$505.7 billion indicates a strong financial position for TSMC in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - Revenue of NT$1.046 trillion reflects significant sales performance, showcasing the company's robust market demand [1] - A gross margin of 62.3% highlights TSMC's efficiency in managing production costs relative to its revenue [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4] Core Insights - Nvidia has launched the next-generation Rubin AI platform, which is set to significantly enhance training performance by 3.5 times and improve AI software performance by 5 times compared to the previous Blackwell platform. The platform will reduce inference token generation costs by up to 10 times and decrease the number of GPUs required for training mixture of experts models by 4 times [1] - Nvidia's new AI-native storage infrastructure, driven by BlueField-4, aims to address the growing AI storage demand, which has surpassed existing infrastructure capacity. This new architecture is designed specifically for AI inference, enhancing efficiency and energy optimization [2] - TSMC has begun mass production of its 2nm process technology, with initial monthly capacity of 35,000 wafers, expected to increase to 140,000 wafers by the end of 2026, surpassing previous market estimates [3] Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown a relative return increase of 4.8% over the past month and an absolute return of 8.3% [6] - The electronic index has risen by 7.74% in the past week, ranking 7th out of 31 industries [30] - The semiconductor sub-sector has seen a significant increase of 10.61% in the same period, indicating strong performance within the industry [35] Investment Recommendations - For the semiconductor sector, companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Northern Huachuang are recommended for investment. In the consumer electronics sector, companies like Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and Goertek are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about TSMC, raising their stock price targets following a historic surge, indicating strong market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Stock Price Target Adjustments - At least six brokerages have raised their forecasts for TSMC's stock since the beginning of the year [1] - JPMorgan increased its target price by 24% to NT$2100, citing expectations of strong revenue growth and improved profitability [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - TSMC's stock has risen by 8% in 2026, following a more than twofold increase over the past three years due to sustained investor interest [1] - The strong performance of TSMC has contributed to record highs in the benchmark stock index, with TSMC accounting for nearly 45% of the index [1] Group 3: Growth Expectations - The demand for TSMC's advanced process technologies and pricing increases are expected to drive another strong growth year in 2026, with anticipated improvements in gross margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry, experienced its largest stock price increase since April, with a peak rise of 6.9% in the Taipei market, reaching an all-time high [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - TSMC's stock price surged by 6.9%, marking a significant milestone in its market performance [1] - The stock reached a historical high, indicating strong investor confidence [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's target price by 35% to NT$2,330, reflecting expectations of continued robust growth for the company over the next year [1]