文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月28日消息，据台媒报道，台积电嘉义科学园区先进封测厂，近 日 再传出 2 起工安事故，造成 2 名工人受伤，让现场施工人员直呼「越是关键时刻，工 地安全越是不能松懈」。 本月 22 日，台积电举办 AP7 媒体导览时，台积电资深副总经理暨副共同营运长侯永清公开宣示，将与营建伙伴成立「半导体营建工程安全协会」，集合 大家力量把台湾安全提升到另一层次，预计明年初开始运作。 不过，没过几天， AP7 昨天接连发生 2 起工安意外。据了解，这 2 起事件分别造成 2 名工人受伤，轻者脚受伤需缝针、重者脚踝皮开肉绽，送医救治。 台积电在嘉科园区设立 2 座先进封装厂，去年 5 月起发生一连串工安事故，酿 2 死 5 伤，引发社会关注，如今农历年前，再传工安事故，引起外界质疑台 积电工安承诺跳票。 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 第一步：扫描下方二维码，关注国芯网微信公众号。 今年元旦起，嘉科工安检查由南科管理局接管，南科管理局长郑秀绒日前的一番话，「台积电是业界领头羊，要做到工安不打折 ...

格隆汇1月28日｜有投资者在互动平台向晶晨股份提问：请问贵公司和台积电有合作吗？如果有请简单 介绍一下相关合作项目！晶晨股份回复称，公司与台积电保持着长期稳定的合作关系，台积电为公司多 款芯片产品提供晶圆代工服务，具体的业务情况详见公司定期报告。 ...

今日（26/1/22）早盘半导体材料设备板块延续调整态势，但市场关注度仍旧高涨。本轮行情主要受益 于AI基础设施建设对高端半导体的需求的快速增长，芯片龙头公司纷纷开启涨价、扩张热潮，带动上 游半导体设备材料的订单需求增加，行业整体景气度有望向好。（数据来源：Wind） 据报道，因人工智能需求爆发，台积电先进3纳米制程面临罕见的生产瓶颈，产能已全数被预订至2027 年；同时摩根士丹利预计2026年第一季度DDR4价格涨幅或达50%，扩产涨价热潮带动的"存储芯片超级 周期"或正在延续。（信息来源：《台积电3纳米产能满载至2027年》-2026/1/21-科创板日报；《大摩： 一季度DDR4价格涨幅或达五成 NOR Flash将涨20%-30%》-2026/1/19-科创板日报；机构观点及预测数 据仅供参考，不代表实际情况，不作为基金业绩表现的保证或承诺，请投资者关注相关投资风险。） 费率备注：在申购或赎回ETF基金份额时，申购赎回代理券商可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取佣金，其中 包含证券交易所、登记机构等收取的相关费用。以上摘自产品法律文件。二级市场买卖佣金由所在券商 收取标准为准，免收印花税。A类份额的申购费率 ...

Core Insights - TSMC's net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be NT$505.7 billion, with revenue expected to reach NT$1.046 trillion and a gross margin of 62.3% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit of NT$505.7 billion indicates a strong financial position for TSMC in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - Revenue of NT$1.046 trillion reflects significant sales performance, showcasing the company's robust market demand [1] - A gross margin of 62.3% highlights TSMC's efficiency in managing production costs relative to its revenue [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4] Core Insights - Nvidia has launched the next-generation Rubin AI platform, which is set to significantly enhance training performance by 3.5 times and improve AI software performance by 5 times compared to the previous Blackwell platform. The platform will reduce inference token generation costs by up to 10 times and decrease the number of GPUs required for training mixture of experts models by 4 times [1] - Nvidia's new AI-native storage infrastructure, driven by BlueField-4, aims to address the growing AI storage demand, which has surpassed existing infrastructure capacity. This new architecture is designed specifically for AI inference, enhancing efficiency and energy optimization [2] - TSMC has begun mass production of its 2nm process technology, with initial monthly capacity of 35,000 wafers, expected to increase to 140,000 wafers by the end of 2026, surpassing previous market estimates [3] Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown a relative return increase of 4.8% over the past month and an absolute return of 8.3% [6] - The electronic index has risen by 7.74% in the past week, ranking 7th out of 31 industries [30] - The semiconductor sub-sector has seen a significant increase of 10.61% in the same period, indicating strong performance within the industry [35] Investment Recommendations - For the semiconductor sector, companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Northern Huachuang are recommended for investment. In the consumer electronics sector, companies like Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and Goertek are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about TSMC, raising their stock price targets following a historic surge, indicating strong market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Stock Price Target Adjustments - At least six brokerages have raised their forecasts for TSMC's stock since the beginning of the year [1] - JPMorgan increased its target price by 24% to NT$2100, citing expectations of strong revenue growth and improved profitability [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - TSMC's stock has risen by 8% in 2026, following a more than twofold increase over the past three years due to sustained investor interest [1] - The strong performance of TSMC has contributed to record highs in the benchmark stock index, with TSMC accounting for nearly 45% of the index [1] Group 3: Growth Expectations - The demand for TSMC's advanced process technologies and pricing increases are expected to drive another strong growth year in 2026, with anticipated improvements in gross margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry, experienced its largest stock price increase since April, with a peak rise of 6.9% in the Taipei market, reaching an all-time high [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - TSMC's stock price surged by 6.9%, marking a significant milestone in its market performance [1] - The stock reached a historical high, indicating strong investor confidence [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's target price by 35% to NT$2,330, reflecting expectations of continued robust growth for the company over the next year [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 300,000,000 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 FF301 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國上城集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02330 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 300,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | ...

Global Semiconductor Market Analysis - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $659.1 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.0%, and is expected to grow to $789.3 billion by 2025 [2][14] - Integrated circuits will account for the largest share at 73.9%, while artificial intelligence chips will see the fastest growth at 49.3% [2][14] - In 2023, the top ten companies in the global semiconductor market are primarily from the US, Taiwan, and South Korea, with no mainland Chinese companies in the top ranks [2][16] China Semiconductor Market Analysis - China's semiconductor market is expected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and is projected to reach $206.7 billion by 2025 [2][16] - Integrated circuits will dominate the Chinese market, accounting for $139.3 billion, or 78.7% of the total market, with artificial intelligence chips growing at 48.3% [2][16] Historical Development of the Semiconductor Industry - The global semiconductor industry has evolved through four major phases: the rise of personal computers and the internet (1986-1999), network communications and consumer electronics (2000-2010), the smartphone and 3G/4G/5G era (2010-2020), and the current AI technology and data center phase (2023-present) [3][21][24] Semiconductor Industry Chain Overview - The semiconductor industry chain consists of upstream (EDA/IP, semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials), midstream (semiconductor design, wafer manufacturing, and packaging/testing), and downstream (packaging and testing) segments [6][62] - Upstream EDA/IP is dominated by companies like Synopsys and Cadence, while semiconductor equipment is led by ASML for EUV lithography, with high industry concentration [6][62] Future Development Directions in the Semiconductor Industry - Key future development areas in the semiconductor industry include third-generation semiconductor materials, computing chips, RF communication chips, and high-bandwidth memory [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The domestic semiconductor industry is expected to make breakthroughs in upstream core equipment, materials, and software, driven by national policies and international dynamics [9] - Investment opportunities are particularly promising in third-generation semiconductor materials, computing chips, RF communication chips, and high-bandwidth storage [9][10]