证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 24 年 月 日 农林牧渔 供需双振，看好黄鸡价格走强 本周热点：黄鸡价格持续冲高。据新牧网，8 月第三周，快速型、中速型、慢速型 黄羽肉鸡均价分别为 10.84 元/kg、12.68 元/kg、15.24 元/kg，同比分别+5.9%、 5.0%、5.0%，黄鸡已连续 5 周持续上涨，按立华股份成本 11 元/kg，假设单只黄 羽肉鸡的体重 2.2kg，则单羽盈利已经修复至 3.7 元。我们认为，前期低价或刺激 行业部分去产，同时叠加季节性需求驱动强化涨价趋势，根据新禽况预测，1）供 应端看，外围中、快速类供应量已明显减少，市场出现缺货情况，而高档类正品销 售畅通，非标产品仍在处理中，但涨价情绪极高；2）需求端看，升学宴拉动消费， 市场需求向好，同时对于中秋国庆备货，行业续养也逐步启动，整体销量提振。我 们认为，即使考虑行业补栏周期，本轮景气周期或持续一个季度左右，板块或同步 基本面迎来回暖，建议关注黄鸡龙头标的温氏股份、立华股份。 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 13.71 元/kg，较上周下跌 0.2%。当前估 值仍位于相对低位， ...

国盛证券研报称，黄鸡价格持续冲高。据新牧网，8 月第三周，快速型、中速型、慢速型黄羽肉鸡均价 分别为 10.84 元/kg、12.68 元/kg、15.24 元/kg，同比分别+5.9%、5.0%、5.0%，黄鸡已连续 5 周持续上 涨，按立华股份成本 11 元/kg，假设单只黄羽肉鸡的体重 2.2kg，则单羽盈利已经修复至 3.7 元。我们认 为，前期低价或刺激行业部分去产，同时叠加季节性需求驱动强化涨价趋势，根据新禽况预测，1）供 应端看，外围中、快速类供应量已明显减少，市场出现缺货情况，而高档类正品销售畅通，非标产品仍 在处理中，但涨价情绪极高；2）需求端看，升学宴拉动消费，市场需求向好，同时对于中秋国庆备 货，行业续养也逐步启动，整体销量提振。我们认为，即使考虑行业补栏周期，本轮景气周期或持续一 个季度左右，板块或同步基本面迎来回暖，建议关注黄鸡龙头标的温氏股份、立华股份。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) reported a revenue increase of 24.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 11.695 billion yuan, but net profit declined by 24.06% to 1.36 billion yuan, indicating a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit" [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's sales volume of live pigs reached 5.1174 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, while sales of yellow feather broilers were 42.7033 million heads, up 7.2% [1][2] - The revenue from the pig segment was approximately 9.879 billion yuan, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, but the sales cost increased by 17.3% to 9.666 billion yuan, nearly equaling the entire revenue of the pig segment [2][3] Segment Performance - The poultry segment reported revenue of about 1.336 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, with average prices for yellow feather broilers declining by 20.9% due to weak demand in the catering industry [3] - The auxiliary products segment achieved revenue of approximately 481 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [3] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The company noted that the fluctuation in performance reflects the cyclical nature of the pig industry, with significant past losses and gains influenced by market conditions [4][5] - For the second half of 2025, the company plans to focus on the synergistic development of its three main segments, aiming to enhance market share and operational efficiency [6]

证券研究报告|公司动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 黄鸡价格回升，Q3 有望迎来业绩拐点 [Table_Title2] 立华股份(300761) 分析判断: ► 黄羽肉鸡养殖龙头，市占率渐提升 自 2014 年起，除 2020 年之外，随着畜禽养殖规模扩大，公司 营业总收入保持稳步增长，2014 年至 2024 年，公司营业总收入 由 40.74 亿元增长至 177.25 亿元，10 年 CAGR+15.84%。从归母 净利润来看， 2014-2019 年持续抬升，由 3.52 亿元增长至 19.64 亿元，屡创历史新高；2020 年至今，公司黄羽肉鸡和生猪 养殖规模继续扩大，同时畜禽产品价格波动较大，公司归母净利 润跟随畜禽产品价格呈现显著周期性波动。2024 年受益于黄羽肉 鸡和生猪市场行情回暖，公司实现归母净利润 15.21 亿元，同 比大幅扭亏为盈。2025H1，受益主产品出栏量同比增长，公司实 现营业总收入 83.53 亿元，同比增长 7%；实现归母净利润 1.49 亿元，同比下降 74%，主要是受黄羽肉鸡价格下降影响。2024 年 出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in output, but prices have declined, leading to a significant drop in net profit for the first half of 2025, which decreased by 74% year-on-year [1][9]. - Despite the low market prices for yellow feathered chickens, the company maintained a growth in output, with a 10.37% increase in chicken output year-on-year [2]. - The company has improved its cost structure, with the complete cost of chicken production dropping below 11 yuan/kg, although it still faces losses of approximately 0.50 yuan/kg per chicken [2]. - The pig farming segment has seen a substantial increase in output, with a 118.35% year-on-year growth in pig output, supported by the release of production capacity [3]. - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability in the pig farming sector due to cost improvements and capacity releases [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.02%, with Q2 revenue at 4.267 billion yuan, up 4.42% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 149 million yuan, down 74.10% year-on-year, with Q2 showing a net loss of 57 million yuan [1][9]. - The sales gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 9.95%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.65%, down 5.69 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The company forecasts net profits of 1.050 billion yuan, 1.518 billion yuan, and 1.622 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.27 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.96 yuan [4][19]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 11, and 10 respectively [4][19]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 16.201 billion yuan, with a closing price of 19.35 yuan [6].

证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | 编号：2025-002 | | --- | | | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 ☐ ☐ | | --- | --- | | | 媒体采访 业绩说明会 ☐ ☐ | | 投资者关活动 | 新闻发布会 路演活动 | | 类别 | ☐ ☐ | | | ☐ 现场参观 | | | 其他：立华股份2025年半年度报告解读电话会 | | 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 | 参会单位名单由中信证券、长江证券提供，详见附件。 | | 时间 | 2025年8月19日 10:00-11:00 | | | 2025年8月19日 15:00-16:00 | | 地点 | 电话会议、公司812会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事会秘书 虞坚 证券事务代表 沈晨 | | 员姓名 | 养猪产业财务经理 李魁（参加上午电话会） | | | 一、公司经营情况概述 | | 投资者关系活动 | 2025年上半年，公司依托一体化的产业链模式，全面精准定位终端消 | | 主要内容介绍 | 费需求，不断提升育种、养殖、加工等环节的运营质量和效率，实现营业 | ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Dekang Agriculture (02419) for 2025/26, with a target price of HKD 111, indicating a 33% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Dekang Agriculture reported 1H25 revenue of CNY 11.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, up 250.6%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved management efficiency and a decrease in pig costs [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The swine business continues to expand with high quality, contributing to revenue growth; 1H25 swine revenue increased by 32.6% to CNY 9.88 billion, with sales volume up 27.1% to 5.1174 million heads [3] - Poultry business remains stable, with 1H25 revenue of CNY 1.34 billion and a 7.2% increase in yellow feather chicken sales to 43 million birds [3] - The slaughtering and ancillary products segment also saw growth, with revenue up 16.1% to CNY 480 million and slaughter volume increasing by 18.5% to 249,000 heads [3] Group 3: Cost and Financial Health - Dekang Agriculture maintains a leading cost advantage in the industry, with 1H25 swine production costs below CNY 12.5 per kilogram, and a PSY of 27 heads per year, also industry-leading [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio improved to 59.9% in 1H25, down 14.3 percentage points from 1H24, indicating ongoing financial health [4] Group 4: Growth Strategy and Value Recovery - The company employs a light-asset model with a unique breeding farm system, achieving lower capital expenditure and binding closely with cooperative farmers; the average breeding fee reached CNY 800,000 per farm, up 15.5% [5] - Dekang Agriculture leverages superior breeding technology and precise nutrition to maintain low-cost advantages, with expectations for continued excess profits per head [5] - Following the release of the 2024 annual report, the company's growth narrative has gained recognition, and liquidity improvements have led to value recovery, with an estimated market value of CNY 2,623 per head, indicating potential for further valuation enhancement [5]

证券日报网讯湘佳股份8月13日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，近期受整个行业市场回暖影响，黄 羽肉鸡价格有回升迹象。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Views - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a phase of supply and demand balance in August, with a positive outlook for pig prices as the industry approaches a long-term profitability uptrend [3] - The report highlights the seasonal decrease in pig output, with a total of 15.27 million pigs slaughtered by 13 listed companies in July, reflecting a 6.15% decrease month-on-month but a 25.12% increase year-on-year [2][13] - The average price of live pigs has shown a downward trend, with the national average price on August 8 being 13.71 yuan/kg, a 4.33% decrease week-on-week [1][29] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The total number of pigs slaughtered in July was approximately 15.27 million, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.15% and a year-on-year increase of 25.12% [2][13] - The average price of live pigs in July was 14-15 yuan/kg, with a slight increase in the overall monthly average price [2][14] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has continued to decline, with an average of 124.16 kg in July, down 0.9 kg from the previous month [17][29] Price Trends - The average price of piglets was 30.4 yuan/kg, down 1.65% week-on-week, while the average price of pork was 20.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26% [28][29] - The report notes that the price of white feather broiler chickens has increased to 7.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 4.54% [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in pig prices [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Reap Bio, due to the expected increase in demand driven by rising pig stocks [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The poultry prices have recently rebounded significantly, with white feather broiler chick prices rising to 3.1 CNY per chick, up 216.2% from the low in the second week of July [14][16] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.14 CNY per kg, an increase of 14.4% from the previous low [14][16] - The average price of chicken products is 8.85 CNY per kg, up 5.7% from the low in July [14][16] - The supply side shows a notable decline in parent stock inventory, which fell to 21.385 million sets by the fourth week of July, down 6.8% from the first week of July [14] - Seasonal demand is expected to increase due to school stocking in September and October, with July marking the peak season for replenishment [14] - The sentiment in the market has been positively influenced by strict regulations on Thai poultry exports, which has led to a price increase of 500-1000 CNY per ton for chicken [14] Summary by Sections Swine Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 13.79 CNY per kg, down 2.3% from last week [16][17] - The current valuation remains relatively low, with a focus on leading companies with cost-effectiveness such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [16][17] Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broiler chickens is 7.14 CNY per kg, up 4.5% from last week [16][32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.85 CNY per kg, an increase of 3.6% from last week [16][32] - The price of broiler chicks is 3.13 CNY per chick, up 21.8% from last week [16][29] - The yellow feather broiler market is adjusting its capacity, with a focus on seasonal price elasticity opportunities [16] Planting and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth in industry companies as prices and profit distribution become clearer [16] Breeding Support - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [16]