拉长时间看，该基金近9天主力资金加速流入，合计流入61.52亿元，居全市场第一梯队。（数据来源： Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为2055.48万份，最新成交额突破24.19亿元，居全市场第一梯队。 2026年2月10日，10年地方债ETF（511270.SH）收平，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流入 7.53亿元，居全市场第一梯队。（数据来源：Wind） MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [4]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy is being reintroduced in Shanghai, which is expected to effectively stabilize housing prices and stimulate market activity [10][26]. - The policy focuses on acquiring second-hand homes to address inventory issues and enhance market liquidity, with specific criteria for eligible properties [10][26]. - The anticipated financial impact includes a potential market transaction increase of approximately 1,080 billion yuan, representing a 9% boost to total market transactions and a 24% increase in new home sales [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Background of the "Old-for-New" Policy - The central government has emphasized the need for policies that control inventory and improve supply, with the "old-for-new" initiative aligning closely with these goals [10][11]. 2. Historical Experience of "Old-for-New" - The "old-for-new" model is categorized into acquisition and assistance types, with the acquisition model being more effective in driving sales [16][21]. - The acquisition model has been implemented in over 20 cities, with a total of 14,520 units identified for trial [16][21]. 3. Shanghai's "Old-for-New" Policy - The policy aims to stabilize housing prices by focusing on second-hand homes, with specific requirements for properties built before 2000 and under 400 million yuan [3][10]. - The estimated funding requirement for the acquisition of 27,000 units is approximately 54 billion yuan, leveraging a 1:2 replacement ratio to maximize market impact [3][10]. 4. Feasibility of the Latest "Old-for-New" Policy - Shanghai is positioned as a key city for the implementation of this policy due to its strong government credibility and market stability [3][10]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has shown signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the average transaction cycle to 22.2 months and a 2% month-on-month price rebound [3][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current environment, characterized by improving transaction volumes and prices in the second-hand market, presents significant investment opportunities [3][10].

Group 1: Macro Background and Chemical Industry - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry shows sustained improvement, with a focus on oil price variables [4][34] - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts [4][34] - The chemical production index in the Asia-Pacific region saw a slight increase of 0.3%, while North America and Europe experienced a decline of 0.8% [4][34] - Since 2022, the number of chemical plant closures in Europe has surged sixfold, with a cumulative capacity loss of 37 million tons, representing about 9% of Europe's capacity [4][34] - The current chemical industry cycle is characterized by improved domestic competitiveness and stable profitability for industry leaders, despite oil prices being relatively high compared to previous cycles [4][34] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market - In the week ending February 6, 2026, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 23,880 billion yuan, down from 30,365 billion yuan [3][33] - Among the 31 primary industries, 18 saw gains while 13 experienced declines, with the food and beverage sector leading with a gain of 4.31% [3][33] - The sectors with the largest declines included non-ferrous metals (-8.51%), telecommunications (-6.95%), and electronics (-5.23%) [3][33] Group 3: Pre-prepared Food Industry Standards - The National Health Commission released a draft standard for pre-prepared foods, defining their scope, shelf life, nutritional quality, packaging, and additive use, which is significant for the industry's high-quality development [8][37] - The draft specifies that pre-prepared foods must not use preservatives and should minimize food additives, with a maximum shelf life of 12 months [9][38] - The new standards are expected to raise industry entry barriers and operational costs, leading to increased concentration in the market as smaller companies may be eliminated [9][39] - The establishment of these standards is anticipated to enhance consumer trust and expand the growth potential of pre-prepared foods in the consumer market [9][40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant outflow of funds from commodity futures, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors, while some specific commodities like short fiber and caustic soda saw inflows [1] - The main commodities with inflows included short fiber (363 million), rebar (247 million), caustic soda (164 million), industrial silicon (164 million), and the shipping index (52 million) [1] - Major commodities experiencing outflows were silver (6.37 billion), gold (4.71 billion), lithium carbonate (2.39 billion), copper (2.06 billion), and platinum (1.02 billion) [1] Group 2 - The overall trend shows a substantial outflow from commodity futures, with a focus on the significant outflows from silver, gold, lithium carbonate, copper, crude oil, tin, rubber, and nickel, while short fiber and caustic soda are noted for their contrary inflows [1] - The black and agricultural product sectors experienced moderate outflows, with particular attention to the outflows from coking coal and palm oil, while meal and iron ore saw inflows [1] - In the financial sector, the focus is on the CSI 300 stock index futures and 30-year treasury futures [1]

单品种看，昨日资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有白银、黄金、生猪、焦煤和20号胶，分别流入41.21 亿元、27.84 亿元、 17.52 亿元、17.27 亿元和6.79 亿元；主要流出的品种有原油、玉米、烧碱、不锈钢和锌，分别流出3.99 亿元、2.86 亿元、1.44 亿元、0.96 亿元和0.91 亿元。从主力合约看，有色金属、黑色、农产品和化工板块呈流入状态，金融板块呈流出状态。 整体看，昨日商品期货（主连合约）资金呈大幅流入状态。有色金属板块流入较多，重点关注流入较多的白银、黄金、铜和铂，同时关注 逆势流出的锌和钯。黑色、农产品和化工板块呈中幅流入状态，重点关注流入较多的生猪、焦煤、20号胶、PVC和焦炭，同时关注逆势流 出的原油、玉米、烧碱和不锈钢。金融板块重点关注中证沪深300股指期货和10年期国债期货。（徽商期货 方正） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为板块资金流入额（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） ...

半导体设备ETF 广发（560780.SH），场外联接(A类：020639；C类：020640）。 拉长时间看，该基金近2天杠杆资金加速流入，合计流入861.80万元，居可比基金首位。（数据来源： Wind） 2026年2月3日，半导体设备ETF 广发（560780.SH）收涨3.17%，成交1.83亿元。获融资买入1426.85万 元，融资偿还585.23万元，融资净买入841.62万元，居可比基金首位。（数据来源：Wind） ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend in commodity futures shows a slight outflow of funds, with specific attention on the inflow and outflow of various commodities and sectors [1] Group 1: Fund Inflows and Outflows - The main commodities with significant fund inflows include gold (5.822 billion), lithium carbonate (1.727 billion), copper (1.187 billion), caustic soda (0.237 billion), and coking coal (0.204 billion) [1] - The primary commodities experiencing fund outflows are silver (9.351 billion), crude oil (0.489 billion), tin (0.469 billion), soybean oil (0.361 billion), and nickel (0.224 billion) [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, chemical, and black sectors are showing a trend of fund outflows, while the financial sector is experiencing inflows [1] - Specific attention is drawn to the significant outflows in silver, crude oil, tin, soybean oil, nickel, zinc, apples, and asphalt, while gold, lithium carbonate, copper, caustic soda, and soybean meal are noted for their contrary inflows [1] Group 3: Financial Futures - The financial sector highlights the focus on the CSI 500 index futures and 30-year treasury futures, indicating a strategic interest in these financial instruments [1]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the prices of important production materials in circulation for late January, covering nine categories and 50 products [1] - The expected SPGI services PMI for January is 51.5, slightly down from the previous value of 52.0, while the composite PMI is expected to be 51.2, down from 51.3 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. EIA will announce the crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 30, with the previous value showing a decrease of 2.295 million barrels [2] - A continued decline in crude oil inventory is anticipated to support the rise in crude oil and related commodity futures [2] Group 3 - The European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision, with expectations that the main refinancing rate will remain unchanged at 2.15% [3] - The deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate are also expected to remain at 2% and 2.4%, respectively [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31, with expectations of 212,000 claims, up from the previous 209,000 [4] - A slight increase in jobless claims may support the rise in prices for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures [4] Group 5 - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for February is expected to be 55, down from the previous value of 56.4 [5] - A lower than expected consumer sentiment index may suppress the rise in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while supporting gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures [5] Group 6 - The People's Bank of China will announce the foreign exchange and gold reserves for January, with the foreign exchange reserves reported at $3,357.87 billion and gold reserves at 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025 [6]

2026年2月3日，卫星ETF（563230.SH）收涨4.21%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流入 6267.86万元，居可比基金前2。（数据来源：Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为5.81亿份，最新成交额突破9.40亿元，居可比基金首位。 2026年2月3日，卫星ETF（563230.SH）收涨4.21%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流入 6267.86万元，居可比基金前2。（数据来源：Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为5.81亿份，最新成交额突破9.40亿元，居可比基金首位。 ...

2026年2月3日，卫星产业ETF（159218.SZ）收涨4.47%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流入 7234.08万元，居可比基金第一。（数据来源：Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为3.56亿份，最新成交额突破7.00亿元，居可比基金前2。 2026年2月3日，卫星产业ETF（159218.SZ）收涨4.47%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流入 7234.08万元，居可比基金第一。（数据来源：Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为3.56亿份，最新成交额突破7.00亿元，居可比基金前2。 ...