Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and the supply side is beginning to show signs of market-driven clearance, with a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - The report indicates a decrease in demand and inventory levels, with apparent consumption of five major steel varieties at 8.397 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [2] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.062 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.7 thousand tons, while total inventory stood at 13.32 million tons, down 33.5% week-on-week [2] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 169.8 CNY/ton, an increase of 22.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a gross profit of -30.2 CNY/ton, a decrease of 17.8 CNY/ton [3] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, and the market-driven clearance of supply is beginning to occur [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan to continue implementing production reduction policies, which is expected to promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the steel industry includes an increase in industry concentration and a focus on high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [5] - Key recommendations include companies like Baosteel (600019), Hualing Steel (000932), and Shougang (000959), which have leading technology and product structures [5] - The report also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies such as Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) in the context of demand recovery [5]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is expected to enter a super cycle, driven by high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, with demand growth anticipated to boost profitability by 2026 [1] - Recent public and business demand has shown recovery, with ticket prices increasing year-on-year due to the release of suppressed demand from the summer season [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to resist "involution" competition, which may enhance revenue management and profitability in the aviation sector [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation - Oil transportation rates remain high, with the VLCC TCE maintaining around $120,000, driven by increased global oil production and limited effective supply due to aging tankers [2] - The outlook for oil transportation is positive, with expectations of demand growth exceeding forecasts, despite potential short-term impacts from seasonal fluctuations [2] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on shadow fleets, which may further support the upward trend in oil transportation rates [2] Group 3: Airport Duty-Free - Shanghai Airport has announced a new duty-free contract model, shifting to a fixed fee plus actual sales commission, which may stabilize or enhance duty-free revenue [3] - The introduction of competition between domestic and international duty-free operators is expected to drive sales growth and improve pricing competitiveness [3] - The new contract structure and competitive environment are likely to incentivize duty-free operators, potentially leading to increased operational enthusiasm [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education (00667) is recognized as a leading vocational training institution in China, leveraging its strong national presence and brand power to meet the robust demand for high-skilled talent in the labor market. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 798 million yuan, 1.004 billion yuan, and 1.128 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.36 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.51 yuan. A target price of 9.0 yuan (approximately 9.9 HKD) is set based on a 20X PE valuation for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue grew by 10.2%, reaching 2.186 billion yuan, while net profit increased significantly by 48.4% to 403 million yuan. The adjusted net profit was 416 million yuan, reflecting a 49.5% year-on-year growth. The gross margin improved to 57.3%, up by 4.3 percentage points. The expense ratios for sales, management, and finance were 22.47%, 10.79%, and 2.51%, showing decreases of 0.94, 2.11, and 0.60 percentage points respectively [2][3]. Segment Performance - Revenue from culinary technology reached 1.024 billion yuan, up 11.4%, with a gross margin of 60.5% (an increase of 5.2 percentage points). Western pastry and cuisine generated 182 million yuan, growing by 14.3% with a gross margin of 60.4% (up 6.6 percentage points). Information technology and internet technology revenue declined by 3.0% to 367 million yuan, but the gross margin improved to 57.6% (up 3.5 percentage points). Automotive services revenue was 492 million yuan, a 9.6% increase, with a gross margin of 54.7% (up 0.6 percentage points). Fashion and beauty services saw a remarkable growth of 90.2% to 77 million yuan, with a gross margin of 61.4% (up 8.8 percentage points). Other business revenue increased by 18.2% to 44 million yuan, but the gross margin was negative at -8.6% (up 23.6 percentage points) [4]. Business Expansion - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates 234 schools and centers across almost all provinces in mainland China and Hong Kong, having recently acquired Shanxi Metallurgy Technician College. The average number of trainees for long-term courses was 134,100, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year increase, accounting for 87.8% of total trainees. However, there was downward pressure on long-term training participants, with 1-2 year, 2-3 year, and 3-year participants showing year-on-year changes of +85.4%, -8.1%, and -0.4% respectively. New enrollments reached 83,500, a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year [5].

Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education (00667) is recognized as a leading vocational training institution in China, leveraging its strong national presence and brand power to meet the robust demand for high-skilled talent in the labor market [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached 2.186 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 403 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 48.4% [3] - The gross profit margin improved to 57.3%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points, indicating effective cost control alongside business expansion [2][3] Segment Performance - Revenue from culinary technology was 1.024 billion yuan, up 11.4%, with a gross margin of 60.5% [4] - Revenue from pastry and western cuisine reached 182 million yuan, growing 14.3%, with a gross margin of 60.4% [4] - Information technology and internet technology revenue declined by 3.0% to 367 million yuan, but the gross margin increased to 57.6% [4] - Automotive services generated 492 million yuan, a 9.6% increase, with a gross margin of 54.7% [4] - Fashion beauty industry revenue surged by 90.2% to 77 million yuan, with a gross margin of 61.4% [4] - Other business revenue was 44 million yuan, up 18.2%, but with a negative gross margin of 8.6% [4] Business Expansion - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates 234 schools and centers across almost all provinces in mainland China and Hong Kong, having acquired Shanxi Metallurgy Technician College during the period [5] - The average number of trainees for long-term courses was 134,100, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, accounting for 87.8% of total trainees [5] - New enrollments reached 83,500, reflecting a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year [5]

报告中称，市场颇为关注的是近期下发的公募基金销售新规。销售新规对于基金销售的宣传推介、直播 销售、绩效考核、廉洁从业等多个方面进行规范。引导基金销售回归"以投资者真实长期收益为中心"的 新范式。新规有利于引导资管行业回归风险定价和风险管理的本质;有利于引导财富管理机构回归根据 客户需求提供金融解决方案的本质。该行认为未来专注于风险定价和风险管理的头部公募会，以及专业 化的头部财富管理机构更为受益;从更长期维度来看，基金投顾等业务前景更为广阔。 国泰海通发布研报称，从前期路演情况来看，在展望2026年的关键当下，市场对于利率企稳、低估值且 基本面趋势回暖板块的关注度大幅提升，该行继续看好券商及保险板块。2026年该行认为券商有由投资 端改革带来的估值和业绩双升的机会;保险则在当前有由利率企稳预期带来的估值提升的投资机会。 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

行业比较：步出先手棋后，进入跨年攻势：看好科技、券商与消费。中央经济工作会议延续积极的宏观 政策立场，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内功"修炼，组合增加进攻性。看好：1）科技成长：AI模 型和应用进展加快，国内算力基础设施短缺。推荐：港股互联网/传媒/计算机/算力，以及具备全球竞争 优势的制造业出海：电力设备/机械设备。2）大金融：资本市场改革纵深有望重振风偏，推荐：券商/ 保险。3）顺周期：调整三年后，估值与持仓处于低位，消费板块景气线索增多，推荐低股价、低库 存、景气改善的消费股：食品饮料/农林牧渔/酒店/旅游服务；周期看好有色/化工。 主题推荐：1、商业航天：长征十二甲火箭发射在即与星座组网加速，看好液体火箭/卫星载荷/发射 场。2、能源强国：扩大绿电应用成为能源战略重点，看好智能电网/新型储能/核聚变能。3、AI应用： 中央提出深化拓展人工智能+，看好港股互联网/数据中心电力。4、内需消费：建设强大国内市场，看 好新兴消费/赛事经济/冰雪旅游。 风险提示：海外经济衰退超预期，全球地缘政治的不确定性。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政 策预期有 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗 鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 摘要 ▶在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观 之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复 失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误，2025 年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好 势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长）， 并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，继续实 施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济 活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.08%. The brokerage and insurance sectors continue to show good trends, with valuations at low levels and relatively stagnant performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the equity market, directly favoring the profitability of securities firms' overseas businesses due to lower liability costs and asset expansion [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 2.39 trillion, a 15.1% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in trading activity. The cumulative average daily trading volume for the year is 2.05 trillion, a 69.5% year-on-year increase [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent positive stance signals a potential "policy easing period" for the industry, which may lead to an increase in leverage limits and support for the profitability of the securities industry. The report recommends focusing on strategic opportunities in undervalued leading companies in the brokerage and insurance sectors [5][6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for the overseas business of brokerages, and new regulations are set to standardize fund sales practices. The report highlights three main lines of recommended stocks: Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC for their advantages in overseas and institutional business; GF Securities and Dongfang Securities for their wealth management strengths; and Guosen Securities for its retail advantages [5][6][7] Insurance Sector - The liability side is expected to achieve a "good start," with the transformation of dividend insurance continuing to progress. The demand for "savings" from residents is likely to persist, and the insurance distribution channel is expected to maintain high growth. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to boost investment returns in the medium to long term [6][7]