国泰海通发布研报称，2026年1月，淘天宠物与炼丹炉大数据联合发布《宠物行业新品趋势报告》显 示，时令节日仪式感消费已成为"它经济"的核心增长极，"新年宠物礼盒"这一搜索关键词在天猫平台上 的同比增速便已经达到了20%+。根据天猫数据，宠物过年衣服销量实现330%的大幅增长，宠物年夜饭 实现290%的增长。此外，春节后，华南与华北区域举办规模领先的宠物展会，国内头部品牌预计在展 会上推出新品，值得关注。 养殖：春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏 春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏。春节后预计需求淡而供给多，预期价格进入淡季节奏。事实上腊月小年 后，春节备货已经开始逐步下降，接下来节后的屠宰场正月初七和初八正式开工后，价格将进入低价和 养殖亏损阶段。关注低猪价下的产能去化情况。 标的方面 生猪推荐标的：牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)；后周期推荐标的：科前生物 (688526.SH)、海大集团(002311.SZ)。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物(300138.SZ)、诺普信 (002215.SZ)、荃银高科（维权）(300087.SZ)、国投丰乐(000713.SZ)，相关标的：康农种业 (30 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，春运过半，截至2月22日(春运前21天)全社会人员流动量农历 同比增长6.0%，其中公路+6.0%，铁路+5.3%，航空+6.0%。2026年春运前21天，估算国内航司客座率 同比上升约1-2pct；估算国内裸票价(不含燃油附加费)同比上升约3-4%；考虑2026年2月航油价格同比下 降13%，估算国内扣油票价(含油票价扣除人均燃油成本)同比上升，意味着航司毛利率应同比提升。假 期二次出行旺盛，航司客座率创新高，票价同比升幅明显扩大，预计节后票价同比上升趋势有望继续向 好。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2026年春运跟踪：春节假期客流增幅提升，航空客流增速继续居前 节后(2/24-3/13)：预计节后拼假效应亦将弱于往年，返程客流将较2025年同期相对集中。 航空客流：春运加班相对有限，其中春节假期客流增速较节前提升 2026年春运前21天，民航日均客运量约239万人，农历同比增长6.0%，增速符合局方预期。2026年春运 民航加班较为有限，且局方严控干线市场航司增加与客运增班。根据航班管家统计，春运前21天全国日 均实际客运执飞航班同比增长近5%，其中国内与国际航线增幅较 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price to HKD 43.2, citing a continued tight supply in the aluminum market through 2026, which has led to upward revisions in profit expectations [1] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing regulatory limits, with an expected capacity of 44.59 million tons by the end of 2025, close to the 45 million tons cap [2] - Significant disruptions are anticipated in overseas supply, such as the planned closure of the Mozal aluminum smelter in Africa due to rising electricity costs, which poses long-term risks to global aluminum production [2] - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase as the trend of substituting aluminum for copper accelerates, with the copper-aluminum price ratio reaching 4.2, significantly above the historical reasonable level of 3.5 [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand from the renewable energy sector is on the rise, particularly from electric vehicles and energy storage devices, which are consuming increasing amounts of aluminum [2] Group 3: Company Strategy and Financial Outlook - China Hongqiao plans to implement a high dividend strategy, benefiting from reduced future capital expenditures, with 2.17 million tons of capacity already transferred to Yunnan and 830,000 tons remaining in its 3 million tons transfer plan [3] - The company is expected to gradually implement its transfer plan starting in 2026, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure compared to previous high levels, which will enhance its dividend payment capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to reach a maximum of 64% in 2024, making the company an attractive high-dividend stock in the Hong Kong market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price to HKD 43.2, citing a continued tight supply in the aluminum market through 2026, which has led to upward revisions in profit expectations [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing regulatory limits, with an expected capacity of 44.59 million tons by the end of 2025, close to the 45 million tons cap [2] - Significant disruptions are anticipated in overseas supply, such as the planned closure of the Mozal aluminum smelter in Africa due to rising electricity costs, which poses long-term risks to global aluminum production [2] - The demand for aluminum is accelerating as it increasingly substitutes copper, with the copper-aluminum price ratio reaching 4.2, significantly above the historical reasonable level of 3.5 [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - The demand from the renewable energy sector is on the rise, with increasing consumption of aluminum in electric vehicles and energy storage devices [2] Group 3: Company Strategy and Financial Outlook - China Hongqiao plans to implement a high dividend strategy, benefiting from reduced future capital expenditures, with 2.17 million tons of capacity already relocated to Yunnan [3] - The company is expected to gradually execute its relocation plan based on policy requirements and market conditions, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure compared to previous high levels [3] - With improved profitability and reduced capital expenditure needs, the company's dividend payout capacity is projected to enhance, with a maximum dividend payout ratio of 64% anticipated in 2024 [3]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，保温杯行业规模稳增，中国仍占主导供应链地位，越南、泰 国凭借更低的制造成本和更优的贸易条件，成为承接中低端产能转移的核心目的地。全球保温杯品牌进 入新一轮产品生命周期，供应链迎来新的重大增长机遇，推荐前瞻布局海外产能的全球供应链龙头嘉益 股份(301004.SZ)、哈尔斯(002615.SZ)。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 保温杯行业：规模稳增，中国仍占主导供应链地位，东南亚产能转移已启动 Owala爆火做对了什么：差异化产品设计与营销思路 1)产品端，以用户为中心的产品设计思路，满足消费者细分使用需求。区别于Stanley优先考虑耐用性与 大容量，Owala更侧重用户体验。Owala的成功源于三大关键产品设计创新，使其在竞争中脱颖而出， 具体包括双模式饮用、便携性与防漏结构的功能设计、丰富的色彩定制方案。 2)定价端：亲民定价带，打开用户触达面营销端：从零售端价格分布来看，Stanley与Owala明显处于不 同价格带。Stanley产品价格带集中在$42–46区间，占总收入的42%;Owala产品定位为可亲民的奢华产 品，其中39%的产品价格为$37，且总收入中有97% ...

国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 农历新年后的首个交易日，国内期货市场迎来强势开局。其中，碳酸锂期货表现尤为抢眼，主力合约 LC2605开盘即跳空高开，盘中最高触及161，640元/吨，领涨商品市场，成为节后资金关注的焦点之 一。 图片来源：同花顺期货通 总体来说，当前碳酸锂市场受情绪和消息面驱动明显，波动剧烈。虽然供给端有扰动故事，但需求端的 实际复苏节奏，特别是节后下游企业的复工和补库强度，仍需进一步观察验证。此外，海外关税政策变 化复杂，且产业链提价后也可能抑制部分采购需求，后续仍存在不确定性。建议投资者理性看待节 后"开门红"行情，避免盲目追高，注意控制仓位，做好风险管理。 资料来源：金投网、金十数据、国泰君安期货研究所 截稿时间：2026年2月24日10点14分 异动逻辑：供给扰动与政策利好共振 l 供应端，扰动因素叠加 增强了市场的紧张预期。节前江西宜春地区——国内锂云母原料的主产区之一 ——有锂盐工厂突发火灾，事件虽未造成人员伤亡，却不可避免地引发了市场对该区域生产稳定性的担 忧。与此同时，春节期间部分锂盐厂按计划进入季节性检修阶段，这些共同强化了市场对于短期锂盐供 应可能边际收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has initiated coverage on NIO-SW (09866) with a "Buy" rating, citing increased sales and a higher proportion of high-priced models leading to the company's first quarterly profit in Q4 2025. The firm projects revenues of 87 billion, 130.6 billion, and 161.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and sets a target price of 50.59 HKD for 2026 based on a 0.85x PS valuation [1][2]. Group 1 - The company achieved a record quarterly delivery of 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands delivering 67,000, 38,000, and 19,000 vehicles respectively, all setting historical highs [2]. - The newly launched high-end ES8 model accounted for 32% of Q4 sales, significantly boosting overall profitability. The adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) is expected to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan, while the GAAP operating profit is projected to be around 200 million to 700 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit [2]. - The CEO of NIO, Li Bin, emphasized the importance of the basic operating unit (CBU) mechanism in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, indicating that the company will continue to advance this mechanism [2]. Group 2 - Since 2025, the company has launched several models including Firefly, the new ES8, and Ladao L90, enhancing its product lineup. In December 2025, the new ES8 sold 22,000 units, becoming the sales champion in the large SUV, large three-row SUV, and models priced above 400,000 yuan categories [3]. - The company is expected to introduce new products such as the NIO ES9, NIO ES7, and Ladao L80 in 2026, further enriching its product matrix and enhancing market competitiveness [3]. Group 3 - The company has established a comprehensive technology system centered around self-developed intelligent driving chips, a full-domain vehicle operating system, and world model algorithms, as reported in the 2025 NIO Full-Stack Technology Annual Report. This investment in intelligence is anticipated to enter a harvest phase, potentially driving both product capability and sales growth [4].

根据2025年蔚来全栈技术年度报告，公司自研智能驾驶芯片、整车全域操作系统及世界模型算法为核心 的技术体系已全面落地。该行认为，公司智能化投入将进入收获期，有望驱动产品力与销量同步提升。 根据乘联会，2025Q4公司累计交付新车12.5万辆，同比+72%，刷新单季交付纪录。其中，蔚来、乐 道、萤火虫品牌分别交付6.7万辆、3.8万辆、1.9万辆，均创历史新高。高端车型全新ES8上市后表现突 出，在25Q4销量中占比达32%，有力拉升了整体盈利水平。25Q4公司经调整经营利润(Non-GAAP)预计 为7-12亿元，GAAP口径下经营利润约为2-7亿元，首次达成单季度盈利。在降本增效方面，根据"皆 电"报道，蔚来CEO李斌表示，基本经营单元(CBU)机制发挥了重要作用，并强调将持续推进、全面跑 通该机制。该行认为，公司未来在销量持续攀升、高价车型占比提升以及降本措施深入落实的共同推动 下，盈利表现有望进一步改善。 新车型蓄势待发，多元化产品矩阵持续扩展 2025年以来，公司接连推出了萤火虫、全新ES8、乐道L90等车型，持续完善产品布局根据东方财富 网，2025年12月，蔚来全新ES8销售2.2万辆，同时包揽大 ...

截至发稿，李煜累计任职时间2年362天，现任基金资产总规模19.89亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 4.76%， 任职期间最差基金回报-2.59%。 数据显示，国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓应流股份。国泰海通新材料混合发起A（018983）四季度持 有股数9800股，占基金净值比例为3.2%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约3.47万元。 国泰海通新材料混合发起A（018983）成立日期2023年9月19日，最新规模999.73万。今年以来收益 6.63%，同类排名2916/8994；近一年收益44.9%，同类排名1997/8199；成立以来收益32.41%。 国泰海通新材料混合发起A（018983）基金经理为李煜。 2月24日，应流股份涨5.45%，截至发稿，报68.45元/股，成交6.37亿元，换手率1.40%，总市值464.80亿 元。 资料显示，安徽应流机电股份有限公司位于安徽省合肥市经济技术开发区繁华大道566号，成立日期 2006年4月25日，上市日期2014年1月22日，公司主营业务涉及 专用设备高端零部件的研发、生产、销 售,产品应用于石油天然气、清洁高效发电、工程和矿山机械及其他高端装备 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，维持海底捞(06862)增持评级。预测公司2025-2027年收入分别为 431.83/456.91/493.73亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长1%/6%/8%;预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 40.38/45.10/50.24亿元，参考同行业可比公司估值，考虑海底捞是国内餐饮龙头，给予公司2026年高于 行业平均的22xPE，目标市值1128亿港元，目标价20.23港元(按1港币=0.88元人民币)。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 创始人重任CEO有望提升员工积极性、提高管理效率 ①消费需求回暖背景下翻台率有望提升，数字化提高运营效率：该行以2024年年报数据为基础测算，当 前海底捞直营餐厅盈亏平衡点对应翻台率不到2.5次。翻台率达到4次/天时，门店经营利润率约15.5%;翻 台率达到4.4次/天时，门店经营利润率约16.1%;翻台率达到4.8次/天时，门店经营利润率约16.6%。因此 若消费需求回暖，餐厅翻台率提升，单店盈利能力具备向上优化弹性。②该行测算海底捞主品牌国内开 店空间在1800家以上，加盟模式助力低线市场布局。 红石榴计划稳步推进 2024年，集团正式启动"红石榴 ...