国泰海通主要观点如下： 结构升级，份额提升 大米行业整体没有总量的逻辑，但作为高需高频的低客单价品类，结构升级下的中高端大米仍有一定量 增，行业的包装化率和优质产品占比都在持续提升。低进入壁垒、弱品牌属性和分散的渠道导致了整体 分散且激烈的竞争格局，行业集中度提升速度也较为缓慢，其中卡位中高端的品牌因为有一定的品牌壁 垒和相对充足的利润空间去调动上下游资源从而能取得更快的成长。该行看好十月稻田未来持续提份额 的能力，基于公司多年深耕建立的品牌、供应链、渠道和营销的综合优势，实现强者恒强。 全链路的高效率，铸就第一品牌 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持十月稻田(09676)"增持"评级。该行预计公司2025-2027 年EPS为0.55/0.68/0.82元人民币，给予公司2026年25xPE，对应目标价18.48港元（按 1HKD=0.92CNY）。 全渠道布局，强运营效率 公司紧握线上渠道红利做到了显著领先的第一市占，得益于建立了扁平化的组织架构和灵活多变的渠道 小组作战模式，能够因地制宜制定营销策略。未来在线上化率提升红利、拼多多即时零售等新兴渠道放 量、玉米等新品类放量下，线上有望延续稳健成 ...

在全球经济格局深度调整与科技竞争加剧的背景下，中国新兴产业正经历从"规模追赶"到"价值重估"的 历史性转变。本文系统性梳理了海内外先进制造、科技、大消费三大领域近百家龙头公司所处的基本面 位置以及估值水平，发现在先进制造领域，中国公司已展现出较高的产业成熟度和更强的全球竞争力， 盈利能力突出且估值更具性价比；硬科技正经历从"跟跑"到"并跑"的关键阶段，应用端具备较好地估值 性价比与成长空间；商品消费已展现出较强的盈利能力，但全球化程度仍待提升，服务消费尚处发展初 期，经济结构转型下成长空间广阔。 新兴科技：硬科技加速追赶，应用估值性价比显著。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，当前，中国新兴科技产业（如半导体、创新药、通信设 备）整体仍处于成长初期，在营收规模和盈利能力上与国际龙头尚有差距，但资本市场已给予较高估 值，体现了对技术自主与产业追赶的乐观预期，后续具备技术壁垒、国产替代空间大的方向将更受益。 相比之下，互联网等应用端龙头企业的盈利预测不弱于海外龙头，且估值水平更具吸引力。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 从全球比较视野，看中国龙头公司重估机会。 推荐：1）受益于盈利能力和全球竞争优势突出，估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan initiates coverage on Minglue Technology (02718) with a "Cautious Accumulate" rating, projecting net profits of -0.13/0.37/1.11 million yuan and revenues of 1.5/1.66/1.81 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a leading provider of data intelligence application software in China [1] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating a recovery from a revenue decline of 5.5% in 2024 [1] - The gross profit margins for 2022-2024 were 53.2%, 50.1%, and 51.6%, with an increase to 55.9% in H1 2025, reflecting a higher proportion of high-margin marketing intelligence business and cost control through product standardization and AI tools [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - The company's revenue is primarily derived from three segments: marketing intelligence, operational intelligence, and industry solutions [2] - In H1 2025, the marketing intelligence segment, which includes products like the second needle system and AI-driven social media insights, generated 354 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.75%, accounting for 55.01% of total revenue [2] - The operational intelligence segment focuses on conversational intelligence and smart store operation systems, achieving revenue of 269 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%, representing 41.71% of total revenue [2] Group 3: R&D and Product Development - The company is increasing R&D investment in multi-modal large models and intelligent agents, launching generative AI products like "Xiao Ming Assistant" for enterprise decision-making and operational scenarios [2] - The company has also developed the AIGC product insightFlow CMS, integrating marketing insights, content production, and optimization [2]

25H1公司实现营业收入6.44亿元，同比+13.9%，较2024年全年-5.5%的收入下滑已有明显修复。2022– 2024年，公司毛利率分别为53.2%/50.1%/51.6%，2025年上半年进一步升至55.9%，反映出营销智能高毛 利业务占比提升，以及在营运智能领域通过产品标准化和AI工具降本增效带来的成本控制成效。与此 同时，公司上市相关非现金项仍将阶段性扰动归母净利润口径，但经营层面的盈亏平衡趋势已经较为明 确。 国泰海通发布研报称，首次覆盖明略科技-W(02718)，给予"谨慎增持"评级。预计2025-2027年实现归母 净利润-0.13/0.37/1.11亿元，收入分别为15/16.6/18.1亿元公司主营业务结构清晰，技术优势显著，鉴于 公司当前会计口径净利润仍受到优先股公允价值变动等非现金项目的显著扰动，短期PE指标有失真的 风险，该行采用PS估值给予公司26年18倍PS估值，对应合理市值为331.2亿人民币，对应公司目标价 222.71港元(按1港元=0.92元换算)。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 公司是中国领先的数据智能应用软件提供商 加大大模型与智能体方向投入，强化数据智能龙头地位 公司 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The brokerage sector has collectively risen, with the non-bank financial sector up by 3.73% as of January 6, 2026, benefiting from the spring market and public fund reforms [1] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a "thirteen consecutive days" increase, reaching a ten-year high [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 122 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record, with a trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan on January 6 [1] Group 2: Human-shaped Robot Industry - The human-shaped robot sector is gaining attention, with a 12.92% increase in the human-shaped robot concept index since December 17, 2025 [2] - Analysts believe the market for embodied robots has significant growth potential, with continuous technological breakthroughs and successful commercialization [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China has outlined seven key priorities for 2026, emphasizing the use of various monetary policy tools to support economic stability and high-quality development [3] - The central bank aims to enhance financial services for the real economy and improve macroeconomic policy coordination [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace and Satellite Internet - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a surge in stock prices, with leading companies experiencing significant gains, such as China Satellite up over 165% [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on core suppliers within the industry chain, including satellite assembly and key component suppliers [4] Group 5: New Account Openings in A-shares - In December 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 2.5967 million new A-share accounts, a 9% increase from the previous month and a 30.55% year-on-year growth [5] - The monthly new account openings showed a wave-like trend throughout 2025, with peaks and troughs reflecting market conditions [5] Group 6: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery sector is gaining traction, with significant interest following the announcement of the world's first mass-producible solid-state battery at CES 2026 [7] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards value competition, focusing on technology and performance rather than just scale [7] Group 7: Brokerage Asset Management - The asset management business of brokerages has shown steady growth, with private asset management scale reaching 5.8 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [8] - Brokerages are increasingly focusing on research capabilities and exploring differentiated development paths in asset management [8]

国泰海通证券发布研报称，从历次科技牛规律看，当前海外算力估值合理，后续上修有空间；国产算力 远期空间大，业绩兑现预期/无风险收益下沉是催化；AI应用估值性价比高，关注互联网与传媒。 估值扩张期规律：拥挤度指标参考意义有限，风险溢价能较好衡量估值边界。 此阶段新技术刚刚爆发，缺乏盈利支撑，产业、政策密集催化带来想象空间，并推动板块估值上涨。从 历史经验看，在此期间： 1)拥挤度指标参考意义有限：此阶段行业拥挤度创新高是常态，指标触及极值后20个交易日内，板块回 调概率较高。但拉长至60-90个交易日来看，行情大概率创新高; 2)风险溢价衡量估值扩张边界：当行业风险溢价(1/市盈率-十年期国债收益率)跌破滚动两年均值下方一 倍标准差时，估值对利好的反应明显减弱，行情陷入震荡等待盈利兑现; 3)高估值区间对流动性变化敏感：当估值处于性价比低位时，流动性紧缩预期易引发调整(如10年4月欧 债危机与央行提准、13年底IPO开闸、21年初美联储退出宽松)；反之，流动性宽松环境下，板块估值性 价比将被动抬升，进一步打开上行空间(如14-15的年增量资金入市，带来游戏估值的进一步抬升)。 盈利驱动期规律：业绩超预期是行情的核 ...

周二的行情，继续牛！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：木鱼ETF） 蛰伏已久的券商系、金融科技等ETF终于爆发了，加上市场连续两天成交破2.5万亿，"人气牛"有味道了！ 那么，这对行情有何影响、又会走多远？木鱼边复盘边分享，观点仅供参考！ "人气牛"回归，是给我们设定的"三股风"加码。我们分析指出，人民币资产为首的三股风向是市场做多的主要动力。对于非银金融看好，但主要是看保 险。而另外半壁的券商爆发是补上另外半边，"人气牛"有感觉了！ 谁在做多券商股？我们需要用更新的视角观察。 | 指数 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交额(亿) | 成交变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 5717 | 13.27 | | 上证50 | 1.9 | 1800 | 6.18 | | 中证1000 | 1.43 | 5808 | 7.12 | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 7254 | 15.04 | | 中证A500 | 1.68 | 10827 | 13.63 | | 国证2000 | 1.35 | 8557 | ...

IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7864.90 | 1.43% | 33,116 | | 8 % | 5,808 | | 7 % | | | | | | IM2601 | 7875.00 | 1.65% | 49,911 | | 10% | | 780 | 12% | 74,538 | -4,894 | 141 | | | IM2602 | 7813.60 | 1.73% | 9,007 | | 3 % | | 140 | 4 % | 21,759 | 1,519 | 4 | 1 | | IM2603 | 7762.40 | 1.80% | 114,127 | | 10% | 1,759 | | 12% | 192,848 | 3,006 | 359 | | | IM2606 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.38% to close at 26,710.45 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 291.76 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.46%, closing at 5,825.26 points, indicating a positive sentiment in the technology sector [1] Blue Chip Performance - China Hongqiao (01378) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 6.14% to HKD 35.26, contributing 10.84 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included JD Health (06618) up 5.41%, Ping An Insurance (02318) up 4.96%, while Alibaba (09988) fell by 1.31% [2] Sector Highlights - The capital market is heating up, with financial stocks, particularly Chinese brokerage firms, showing significant gains. For instance, Jiufang Zhitu (09636) surged by 18.84% [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector performed strongly, with notable increases in Aluminum Corporation of China (02068) up 8.05% and Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818) up 7.29% [4] Commodity Trends - Commodities such as gold, silver, and copper have seen rising futures prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints [5] - The aluminum market is particularly affected by supply threats, with prices expected to remain high due to production risks [5] Autonomous Driving Sector - The autonomous driving sector is gaining traction, with companies like Zhejiang Shibao (01057) rising by 21.53% following announcements from NVIDIA regarding advancements in self-driving technology [6] - NVIDIA's new AI platform is expected to stimulate demand for autonomous taxis, supporting global economic growth [6] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing growth, with companies like JunDa Co. (02865) rising by 8.01% due to recent developments in the industry [6] - The acceleration of the commercialization of space is anticipated to enhance the performance and valuation of related companies [6] Notable Stock Movements - Xindong Company (02400) increased by 6.04% after announcing a significant share buyback plan worth HKD 400 million [7] - Hesai Technology (02525) rose by 5.9% after being selected as a lidar partner for NVIDIA's platform and announcing plans to double production capacity [8] - Cathay Pacific (00293) faced pressure, declining by 2.6% due to a share placement by China National Aviation [9]

国泰海通证券研报指出，浙江鼎力主业聚焦高空作业平台，是全球率先实现全系列电动化的制造商，且 产品持续开拓，后续有望在全球市场提升市占率。中国高空作业平台市场竞争激烈，行业呈现阶段性波 动，租赁市场保有量为66.92万台，包括剪叉48.72万台，臂式17.27 万台，长期看新增及置换需求依然持 续。公司已实现全系列产品电动化，并覆盖臂式/剪叉/桅柱三大系列，具备平台化迭代与差异化拓展能 力。对标可比公司，给予2025年18倍PE估值，目标价71.1元。首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...