风险提示：1)研发进展不及预期风险、2)药品销售不及预期风险3)政策风险、4)行业风险、5)其他风 险。 基于HER2ADC DB1303在2025年两项注册性临床的顺利进展，以及BNTX最新研发日的乐观态度，该行 对于其在2026年读出2L+EC和2L HR+/HER2-BC的全球注册性结果并NDA具有信心。基于B7H3ADC DB1311在2025年展现出的针对广谱实体瘤的潜力，以及在CRPC上的突出疗效，该行期待公司针对2L CRPC适应症(chemo naïve)在2026年启动首个全球注册性III期临床。 基于MSD旗下HER3ADC在2L+HR+/HER2-BC全球注册性临床的启动，以及DB1310在同适应症的肩对 肩更优异临床表现，该行期待公司在2026年继续推进DB1310在该适应症的全球临床开发。基于 TROP2ADC DB1305在2025年披露的实体瘤和TNBC数据更新，该行认为DB1305疗效可比DATO; 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，基于映恩生物-B(09606)旗下管线在2025年极其顺利的进展情 况，提高了HER2ADC DB1303、B7H3ADC DB1311，和 ...

根据该行的汇总，映恩生物在2026年的催化剂丰富，该行期待以下数据的读出：1)HER2ADC针对EC和 BC适应症全球注册性临床的最终结果;2)B7H3ADC、HER2ADC和TROP2ADC联合PDL1*VEGF双抗 BNT327的临床结果;3)已BD管线B7H4ADCEGFR*HER3ADC的早期临床数据更新，以及CDH17ADC的 临床进展更新;4)早期管线PDL1*B7H3ADC的FIH数据披露。 基于HER2ADC DB1303在2025年两项注册性临床的顺利进展，以及BNTX最新研发日的乐观态度，该行 对于其在2026年读出2L+EC和2L HR+/HER2-BC的全球注册性结果并NDA具有信心。基于B7H3ADC DB1311在2025年展现出的针对广谱实体瘤的潜力，以及在CRPC上的突出疗效，该行期待公司针对2L CRPC适应症(chemo na ve)在2026年启动首个全球注册性III期临床。 国泰海通发布研报称，基于映恩生物-B(09606)旗下管线在2025年极其顺利的进展情况，提高了 HER2ADC DB1303、B7H3ADC DB1311，和HER3ADC DB1310的潜在全球 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|证券Ⅱ [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 公募销售费改平稳落地，框架完善兼顾市场关切 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 [分析师： Table_Author]陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 严漪澜 SAC 执证号：S0260524070005 0755-82544248 yanyilan@gf.com.cn 请注意，严漪澜并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 证券行业 2026 年投资策略: | 2025-12-04 | | 本 ...

Group 1 - The report focuses on the development of the IP fun food industry under the trend of emotional consumption, analyzing industry scale, core competitiveness, competitive landscape, and investment opportunities [1] - The IP fun food market in China is expected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2%, while the IP fun food segment is projected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan to 11.5 billion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 19.6% [1][9] - The growth is driven by the younger generation, particularly those born in the 90s and 00s, who are becoming the main force in emotional consumption, with nearly 90% of youth having experience in emotional spending [1][21] Group 2 - The core competitiveness of the industry lies in supply chain management and IP operation, with the ability to control raw material costs and efficient production and distribution being fundamental barriers [2][12] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with many small and medium-sized enterprises participating, and the leading company, Jintian Animation, holding only 7.6% market share in 2024 [2][12] - The rise of domestic brands is notable, with Jintian Animation entering the top five in the industry by 2024, indicating a shift in market dominance from foreign to local brands [2][12] Group 3 - Jintian Animation focuses on the 0-12 age group and has 26 popular IP licenses, with revenue expected to grow from 596 million yuan in 2022 to 877 million yuan in 2024, and net profit increasing from 37 million yuan to 131 million yuan [3] - The company has a gross margin of 33.7%, with over 70% of its revenue coming from the Ultraman and My Little Pony IPs, and is rapidly expanding its direct sales channels [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese securities industry underwent profound changes under the strategy of "cultivating first-class investment banks," marked by resource integration, technological empowerment, and ecological restructuring, signaling a new chapter for the industry. Group 1: Major Events - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in 2025 established a new "dual leader" pattern in the industry, with the combined entity "Guotai Haitong" reporting a net profit of 22.074 billion yuan, closely following CITIC Securities' 23.159 billion yuan, both surpassing the 20 billion yuan mark [4] - The first "three-in-one" integration in the industry is being planned by CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, which, if completed, will create a new model for industry integration with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [5] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 2.551734 trillion yuan by December 29, 2025, accounting for 2.59% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with a 288% year-on-year increase in new accounts opened in September 2025 [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and renamed the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" in 2025, focusing on guiding the industry to serve national strategies and enhancing professional capabilities [7] - AI applications in securities firms accelerated, with leading institutions showcasing advancements at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, enhancing capabilities in investment research and risk control [8] Group 3: Leadership and Talent Dynamics - Over 10 chief economists in the securities industry changed positions in 2025, primarily due to the merger wave, indicating a significant reshuffling of talent [9] - More than 50 securities firms experienced changes in leadership roles, with approximately one-third of firms undergoing a "leadership change," driven by factors such as retirement and shareholder changes due to mergers [10] Group 4: Market Competition and Trends - Despite the rising trend of "anti-involution," a price war among securities firms intensified, with commission rates dropping to as low as 0.01% and financing rates falling below 4%, highlighting the need for the industry to return to its core financial services [11] - Securities firms were first included as issuers of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds in May 2025, with total issuance exceeding 80 billion yuan since then, enhancing their competitive edge [12] - The wave of public fund business that began in 2022 receded in 2025, with several institutions withdrawing their applications for public fund qualifications, indicating a shift in business models [14]

Core Viewpoint - The ranking of financing service companies is based on a comprehensive evaluation of both hard and soft strength indicators, reflecting their market value and industry position [1][2]. Hard Strength Indicators - Hard strength indicators focus on data-driven market competitiveness, emphasizing the importance of quantitative metrics in assessing a company's performance [2]. Soft Strength Assessment - Soft strength evaluation considers service quality and innovation capabilities, highlighting the need for companies to provide unique and effective solutions to clients [2]. Top 4 Companies Overview - The top four companies have emerged as industry benchmarks due to their hard and soft strengths, effectively matching diverse financing needs of enterprises [2]. 1. Houxin Capital - Houxin Capital is a leading player in vertical financing for the education sector, focusing on comprehensive services including financing, mergers and acquisitions, IPO guidance, and value management [3]. - The company has a strong team with an average of over 10 years of industry experience, leveraging a global resource network to optimize financing costs and achieve capital goals [3]. - Successful case examples include assisting a vocational technical college in increasing profits from 2.65 million in 2023 to an expected 24 million in 2024 through strategic resource optimization [4]. 2. Guotai Junan - Guotai Junan specializes in capital operations for small and medium-sized enterprises, creating an ecosystem that combines sponsorship and direct investment [5]. - The company has a market share exceeding 15% in equity financing, demonstrating its strong market recognition [5]. - A notable case involved providing integrated services for a small enterprise, leading to significant growth in performance and stock price [6]. 3. Zhonghe Guarantee - Zhonghe Guarantee, backed by state capital, focuses on policy-based financing for small and micro enterprises, with a registered capital of 5.126 billion and a guarantee balance exceeding 80 billion in 2024 [7]. - The company offers competitive guarantee rates, significantly reducing financing costs for small enterprises [7]. - A key case involved providing credit guarantee services to a biotech company, enabling it to secure an 8 million loan for technology development [8]. 4. CICC International Department - CICC International Department is a leader in cross-border financing, with capabilities in underwriting for Hong Kong, US, and Chinese concept stocks [8]. - The department led the issuance of over 20 billion USD in overseas bonds for Chinese enterprises in 2024, showcasing its significant influence in the international bond market [8]. - A successful case included serving as the sole sponsor for a leading new energy vehicle company’s IPO in Hong Kong, raising over 5 billion HKD [8]. Financing Service Selection Guide - Companies should choose financing service institutions based on their specific needs and risk avoidance strategies [9]. - For startups needing less than 5 million, localized institutions are recommended for quick approvals [12]. - Growth-stage companies should consider full-license brokers or policy guarantee institutions to balance financing costs and capital operation planning [12]. - Large enterprises should rely on top institutions for complex financing needs [12]. Future Trends in Financing Services - The financing service industry is expected to accelerate towards specialization, verticalization, and intelligence by 2025, shifting competition from scale to comprehensive strength [13]. - The highlighted companies provide clear financing solutions tailored to different sectors and stages of development, emphasizing the importance of aligning with industry trends [13].

Core Insights - The China Securities Association released the rankings for securities firms in 2025, reflecting their performance in investment banking, financial advisory, and bond business quality [1][2] Group 1: Evaluation Results - A total of 93 securities firms were evaluated for their investment banking quality, with 12 classified as A, 66 as B, and 15 as C [2][5] - The A-rated firms include Dongwu Securities, Guojin Securities, Guotai Junan, Guotou Securities, Guoxin Securities, Huatai United, Ping An Securities, Changcheng Securities, China Merchants Securities, CICC, CITIC Securities, and Bank of China Securities [6][11] Group 2: Financial Advisory Evaluation - The financial advisory business evaluation included 30 firms, with 5 rated A, 19 rated B, and 6 rated C [6][7] - A-rated financial advisory firms are Huatai United, Galaxy Securities, CICC, CITIC Jianan, and CITIC Securities [7] Group 3: Bond Business Evaluation - The bond business evaluation involved 95 firms, resulting in 14 rated A, 62 rated B, and 19 rated C [10][11] - A-rated bond firms include Caixin Securities, Dongwu Securities, Guojin Securities, Guotai Junan, Guoxin Securities, Ping An Securities, and others [10] Group 4: Future Directions - The China Securities Association aims to guide firms to enhance their professional capabilities and service quality, shifting from price competition to value competition [11]

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 31, 2025 [2] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Transaction Summary 2.1 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - T2603: Closing price 107.86, down 0.07%; volume 93,519, up 30%; turnover 100.8 billion, up 30%; open interest 223,646, down 6,646; margin 4.82 billion [3] - T2606: Closing price 107.88, down 0.06%; volume 5,005, up 17%; turnover 5.4 billion, up 17%; open interest 11,156, up 124; margin 240 million [3] - T2609: Closing price 107.74, down 0.08%; volume 548, down 4%; turnover 600 million, down 4%; open interest 1,317, up 156; margin 30 million [3] - Total: Volume 99,072, up 29%; turnover 106.8 billion, up 29%; open interest 236,119, down 6,366; margin 5.09 billion [3] 2.2 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - TF2603: Closing price 105.76, down 0.04%; volume 66,075, down 3%; turnover 69.9 billion, down 3%; open interest 147,910, up 595; margin 1.88 billion [3] - TF2606: Closing price 105.75, down 0.04%; volume 5,300, up 79%; turnover 5.6 billion, up 79%; open interest 15,693, up 575; margin 200 million [3] - TF2609: Closing price 105.62, down 0.03%; volume 72, up 3%; turnover 100 million, up 3%; open interest 1,757, up 26; margin 20 million [3] - Total: Volume 71,447, up 1%; turnover 75.5 billion, up 1%; open interest 165,360, up 1,196; margin 2.1 billion [3] 2.3 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - TL2603: Closing price 111.41, down 0.35%; volume 117,690, up 41%; turnover 130.9 billion, up 41%; open interest 142,077, up 998; margin 5.54 billion [3] - TL2606: Closing price 111.63, down 0.37%; volume 10,496, up 56%; turnover 11.7 billion, up 55%; open interest 25,486, up 676; margin 1 billion [3] - TL2609: Closing price 111.40, down 0.33%; volume 472, up 387%; turnover 500 million, up 384%; open interest 1,202, up 71; margin 50 million [3] - Total: Volume 128,658, up 43%; turnover 143.1 billion, up 42%; open interest 168,765, up 1,745; margin 6.58 billion [3] 2.4 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - TS2603: Closing price 102.45, down 0.03%; volume 39,159, down 5%; turnover 80.2 billion, down 5%; open interest 74,199, down 1,931; margin 760 million [3] - TS2606: Closing price 102.49, down 0.03%; volume 472, up 278%; turnover 1 billion, up 277%; open interest 2,687, up 20; margin 30 million [3] - TS2609: Closing price 102.50, down 0.04%; volume 525, up 108%; turnover 1.1 billion, up 107%; open interest 741, up 50; margin 10 million [3] - Total: Volume 40,156, down 4%; turnover 82.3 billion, down 4%; open interest 77,627, down 1,861; margin 800 million [3] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Net Open Interest - There are charts showing the net open interest of ten - year, five - year, thirty - year, and two - year Treasury bond futures for different periods, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty positions [5] 4. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 4.1 T2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 40,023 and an increase of 6,509, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 28,884 and an increase of 10,130, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,495 and an increase of 1,894 [8] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 50,890, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 31,057 and a decrease of 296, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 29,996 and a decrease of 1,855 [8] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 34,251 and a decrease of 10, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,216 and a decrease of 4,858, and China Merchants Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,256 and a decrease of 61 [8] 4.2 T2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,572 and an increase of 1,084, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 998 and an increase of 177, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 988 and a decrease of 667 [10] - For long positions, the top three are Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 3,419, Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,246, and Hongyuan Futures (on behalf of clients) with 891 [10] - For short positions, the top three are Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,641 and an increase of 27, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,430, and GF Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,048 and a decrease of 48 [10] 5. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 5.1 TF2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,885 and a decrease of 730, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 23,092 and an increase of 2,721, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,895 and a decrease of 5,128 [12] - For long positions, the top three are Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 32,897 and an increase of 4,887, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 27,254 and a decrease of 123, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,872 and a decrease of 772 [12] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,676 and an increase of 350, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,413 and an increase of 331, and Ping An Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,685 and a decrease of 477 [12] 5.2 TF2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,049 and an increase of 946, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 1,583 and an increase of 1,275, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,506 and an increase of 159 [14] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,269 and a decrease of 342, Xingzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,784, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,382 and an increase of 105 [14] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,119 and an increase of 1, Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,348, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,318 and an increase of 1,000 [14] 6. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 6.1 TL2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 39,632 and an increase of 11,428, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,643 and an increase of 6,198, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 19,077 and an increase of 5,014 [15] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 16,270 and an increase of 588, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,201 and a decrease of 453, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 12,796 and an increase of 139 [15] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,400 and a decrease of 462, Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,711 and an increase of 25, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,473 and a decrease of 1,462 [15] 6.2 TL2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,816 and a decrease of 105, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,629 and an increase of 691, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,626 and an increase of 910 [18] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,197, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,398, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,258 [18] - For short positions, the top three are Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,951 and an increase of 136, Guojin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,944 and a decrease of 94, and Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,559 and an increase of 240 [18] 7. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 7.1 TS2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,261 and an increase of 1,419, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,976 and an increase of 896, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 5,834 and a decrease of 4,549 [19] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,550, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 6,297 and a decrease of 21, and CITIC Construction Investment (on behalf of clients) with 6,233 and an increase of 45 [19] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,436 and a decrease of 1,243, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,833 and an increase of 475, and GF Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,703 and an increase of 27 [19] 7.2 TS2606 Contract - All trading volume, long - position, and short - position data are 0 [22]

Group 1 - The A-share IPO market in 2025 has shown significant performance, with a total of 116 companies successfully listed, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3] - The total funds raised through IPOs reached 131.77 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 95.64% [1][3] - The average amount raised per IPO was 1.136 billion yuan, which is an increase of 68.66% compared to the previous year [1][3] Group 2 - A total of 30 brokerage firms (including parent and subsidiary companies) participated in A-share IPO sponsorship projects [1][3] - Guotai Junan ranked first in the industry with 17 sponsorship projects, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 142.86% [1][3] - CITIC Securities led in underwriting revenue with 1.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.84%, accounting for 18.10% of the total underwriting fees for the year [1][3]