国泰海通发布研报称，予贝壳-W(02423)"增持"评级。该行预计公司2025-2027年经调整净利润分别为 57.19、62.44、69.95亿元(归母净利润分别为38.32、41.53、47.73亿元)，给予公司2025年38倍PE估值， 对应合理价值为60.83元，换算为每股66.85港元。公司当前积极发展非房业务应对周期风险，抓紧降费 提效动作转为防守姿态，加大股东回馈力度提高投资价值。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2025年第三季度，公司回购金额达到2.81亿美元，单季度回购金额创近两年来新高。截至2025年第三季 度末，公司今年斥资约6.75亿美元回购股份，金额同比增长15.7%，回购股数占2024年末总股本约3%。 自2022年9月回购项目启动以来，截至2025年9月末，公司累计回购金额约23亿美元，回购股数占回购项 目启动前公司总股本约11.5%。 风险提示：房地产行业面临缩量风险，公司新业务模式有待验证。 2025年3Q，公司总交易额为7367亿元，同比基本持平;净收入为231亿元，同比增加2.1%，2025年3Q， 公司净利润为7.47亿元，同比下降36.1%，经调整净利润为12.86亿元，同 ...

Core Insights - The Double Eleven shopping festival shows a robust double-digit growth, with impressive performance in instant retail and a trend towards integrated service across platforms [1][2] - The beauty category maintains steady growth across multiple platforms, with Tmall's high-end international brand rankings recovering and Douyin's leading domestic brands performing well [3] Group 1: Double Eleven Performance - The overall GMV for Double Eleven in 2025 is projected to reach 1,695 billion, representing a 14% increase from 2024, with instant retail showing significant growth [2] - Tmall achieved its best growth in four years, significantly driven by the 88VIP program, while JD.com set new transaction records [2] Group 2: Beauty Category Insights - The skincare and makeup categories are expected to grow between 5-15% across platforms, with domestic brands like Proya maintaining a strong position [3] - High-end international brands such as Estée Lauder and SK-II have seen improvements in their rankings, benefiting from high-value user contributions [3] Group 3: Brand Performance - Brands like Ruoyuchen and Shangmei have shown remarkable performance during Double Eleven, with Ruoyuchen's total GMV increasing by 80% year-on-year [4] - The brand management and e-commerce operations of Kangwang and Aveeno have also seen significant growth, with some brands achieving over 200% year-on-year increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a cooling in the trading heat of A-share thematic investments compared to October, with a notable differentiation within the technology sector and a rebound in consumer blue chips [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The average daily trading volume for thematic investments was 800 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.55%, showing a decline since early November [1] - The technology sector has shown internal differentiation, with lithium battery materials like electrolytes and separators experiencing significant gains, while some innovative drugs have rebounded and PCB/light modules have corrected [1] - Non-technology themes are gaining traction, with low-priced blue chips and sectors like liquor and finance attracting net inflows [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption - The State Council has emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential, fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats [2] - New demand is leading to new supply, with emerging consumption scenes in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances, contributing over 38 billion yuan in consumption in Jiangsu [2] - The ice and snow sports consumption scale is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, marking a 25% year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Development in Xinjiang - Xinjiang is focusing on western openness, strategic positioning, energy resources, and agricultural products, with plans to implement 500 key projects by 2025, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [3] - The annual investment plan is set at 406.9 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the number of key projects and investment compared to 2024 [3] - Key projects include comprehensive transportation, efficient water resource utilization, and energy infrastructure, with a total investment of 1.21 trillion yuan in transportation and 2.22 trillion yuan in energy projects [3] Group 4: AI Applications - Alibaba has launched a personal AI assistant based on the Qwen model, while the State Council has issued guidelines to accelerate the cultivation of high-value AI application scenarios [4] - The goal is to achieve over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, and over 90% by 2030 [4] - Recommendations include investments in internet and financial applications, as well as data center power equipment and domestic computing capabilities [4] Group 5: Robotics - Yushu Technology has completed its IPO guidance report, and XPeng Motors has introduced a new humanoid robot, IRON, designed for various industrial and personal applications [4] - The robotics sector is leveraging China's manufacturing supply chain advantages to establish a technological and scalable foundation [4] - Key investment areas include dexterous hands, sensors, and lightweight materials, alongside core supply chain components [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the power coal industry, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and transportation conditions. It indicates that the short - term trading sentiment of power coal pit - mouth prices has weakened, while import coal prices are rising. Supply shows a mixed picture with domestic production having different trends in different time - scales, and global and regional supply also varying. Demand is influenced by multiple factors including power consumption, industrial use, and energy substitution. Inventory levels are changing, and transportation conditions involve aspects like port operations and freight rates [4][6][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal Fundamentals Data - Power coal pit - mouth prices are stable in the short - term, and trading sentiment has weakened, while import coal prices are rising [4] - Domestic supply of power coal has expanded on a weekly basis. As of November 14, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.465 million tons, a 0.03% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly increased. The 462 sample mines account for about 65% of the national total capacity [6][11] - In October 2025, the total production of raw coal was 406.75 million tons, a 1.15% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year decrease [12] - The global port coal out - bound volume decreased on a weekly basis, but Australian coal out - bound volume continued to rise [14] - The total amount of coal floating to China has increased [16] - As of November 7, the main arrival volume of power coal was 7.3135 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5433 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4683 million tons [19] 3.2 Power Coal Demand - This week, the demand for power coal for electricity consumption increased on a weekly basis. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces was 5.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 million tons. The average coal supply was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons. The average daily consumption of coastal eight provinces was 1.8199 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.017 million tons, and that of inland 17 provinces was 3.2927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1117 million tons [25] - The demand for chemical coal decreased on a weekly basis [26] - The coal supply of coastal eight - province power plants increased, and they started to replenish stocks. The inventory of inland 17 - province power plants steadily increased [28][34] - In October, the total social power generation decreased, and the new - energy power generation capacity declined. However, the wind and nuclear power generation assistance increased on a weekly basis [25][37] - In September, the coal consumption for electricity and metallurgy decreased, while that for chemical, construction, and heating remained relatively stable [42] 3.3 Power Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the mine inventory of power coal sample enterprises was 3.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.971 million tons [44] - The ports in the Bohai Rim region had a slight inventory build - up, and the port power coal market was in a stalemate [47] 3.4 Power Coal Transportation - The port coal intake decreased, while the out - take data continued to rise rapidly. Long - term contract demand may be maintained [53] - The power coal freight index slightly declined, the international dry - bulk freight increased, and the short - term transportation cost remained at a high level [55]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 生猪：降温刺激需求预期落地，供应压力凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（11.10-11.16） 现货市场，生猪价格震荡调整。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.9 元/公斤（上周 20.9 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.98 元/公斤（上周 11.98 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1548 元/头（上周 1548 元/ 头）。供应端，周内集团企业出栏完成进度偏慢，散户仍有惜售情绪；需求端，周内消费整体稳定，虽有 降温备货预期，但整体表现较差。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.62KG（上周 124.65KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.02%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格震荡调整。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 12050 元/吨，最低价为 11690 元/吨，收盘价为 11775 ...

Core Viewpoint - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to provide medium-term support for gold prices as market liquidity improves and short-term pressure factors are alleviated [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Following the end of the government shutdown, the expected decrease in the Treasury account balance will lead to improved market liquidity [1][2]. - Key U.S. economic data will be re-disclosed, allowing the Federal Reserve to reassess the economic situation in the U.S. [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the extent of interest rate cuts in December 2025 and the path for 2026, but the overall trend towards rate cuts remains unchanged [1][2]. - The long-term context of de-dollarization is influencing the outlook for gold prices [1][2].

国泰海通发布研报称，随着美国政府停摆的结束，随着美国政府停摆的结束，美国财政部账户余额预期 开始下降，市场流动性缓解后，黄金的短期压制因素解除。在去美元化的长期背景下，在美国政府结束 停摆后，预期美国关键经济数据将重新开始披露，美联储将重新评估美国经济的运行情况。虽然美国25 年12月降息幅度、26年降息路径及空间仍存在一定不确定性，但美国降息的趋势将不会发生改变，金价 中期存在支撑。 来源：滚动播报 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着美国政府停摆的结束，随着美国政府停摆的结束，美国 财政部账户余额预期开始下降，市场流动性缓解后，黄金的短期压制因素解除。在去美元化的长期背景 下，在美国政府结束停摆后，预期美国关键经济数据将重新开始披露，美联储将重新评估美国经济的运 行情况。虽然美国25年12月降息幅度、26年降息路径及空间仍存在一定不确定性，但美国降息的趋势将 不会发生改变，金价中期存在支撑。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 美国流动性危机缓解，黄金短期压制因素解除 10月以来美国政府关门期间，美国财政支出下行而美债的发行持续，美国财政部账户(TGA)余额大幅增 加。这使得美国货币市场的流动性不断收紧，美国担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)走高。在流动性不足的情 况下，非现金类资产包括黄金均存在一定的压制。随着美国政府停摆的结束，美国财政部账户余额预期 开始下降，市场流动性缓解后，黄金的短期压制因素解除。 美联储降息路径或主导黄金中期走势，关注美联储主席换届对市场预期的影响 中期来看，美联储的降息、停止缩表等政策路径直接影响市场中期对黄金的定价。在美国政府结束停摆 后，预期美国关键经济数据将重新开始披露，美联储 ...

然而，过去数年产业经历多次景气循环，使原厂在资本支出与扩产策略上趋于保守。2026年资本支出重 心放在制程升级和导入hybrid-bonding而非扩产，将导致NAND Flash供应位元增幅有限，供不应求状态 预计将延续2026年全年。 消费级NAND价差有望快速拉平，重视消费级存储价格弹性。本轮存储行情的起点为HDD供给短缺与 过长交期以及CSP存储需求快速提升，核心驱动力源自服务器存储需求的爆发。为顺应服务器强劲的新 增需求，原厂积极扩大服务器DDR5、LPDDR5X、HBM3E、eSSD等高附加值产品的销售，当前库存已 快速消耗，原厂将进一步提高应用于服务器市场的高利润产品份额，包括DRAM、NAND产品在内的整 体供应增长有限。 因此，从Flash Wafer价格来看，近两个半月内NAND Flash价格累计涨幅在50%以上，其中，512Gb TLC NAND Wafer价格接近翻倍。该行认为，由于原厂产能结构性转移至服务器市场，mobile、PC供应已受 到影响，消费类NAND价差有望快速实现和企业级拉平，消费买方市场更多为存储价格的被动接受者， 后续有望贡献高于企业级存储的价格弹性。 智通财经A ...

Group 1 - The event "Haina Capital, Ju Shi Changbai Mountain" showcased the resource advantages and future potential of Changbai Mountain, aiming to explore new paths for the deep integration of capital and the real economy [1][4] - Nearly 341 million visitors were received at the Changbai Mountain scenic area this year, with the self-operated Crown Hotel achieving an 80% occupancy rate during peak season, indicating continuous optimization of operational capabilities [3] - The opening of the Shenbai High-speed Railway is expected to further boost visitor traffic, enhancing the investment value of Changbai Mountain [1][3] Group 2 - Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. has successfully established a multi-dimensional industrial structure focusing on "all-area tourism, four-season operation, and multi-industry collaboration" [3] - Future plans include leveraging the second phase of the hot spring project, developing ice and snow IP, and exploring new scenarios for cultural and tourism integration [3] - The event highlighted the importance of positive interaction between listed companies and the capital market, showcasing Changbai Mountain as a resilient growth entity in the ice and snow tourism sector [8]