智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持海底捞(06862)增持评级。预测公司2025-2027年收入分 别为431.83/456.91/493.73亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长1%/6%/8%;预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分 别为40.38/45.10/50.24亿元，参考同行业可比公司估值，考虑海底捞是国内餐饮龙头，给予公司2026年 高于行业平均的22xPE，目标市值1128亿港元，目标价20.23港元(按1港币=0.88元人民币)。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 红石榴计划稳步推进 2024年，集团正式启动"红石榴计划"，旨在鼓励孵化和发展更多的餐饮新品牌，推动餐饮服务创新。截 至2025年6月30日，除海底捞火锅之外，公司还运营14个餐饮品牌共计126家餐厅。其中2025上半年新 开"焰请烤肉铺子"46家，截至2025年6月30日共运营70家。2025H1其他餐厅收入5.97亿元，同比 +227%。展望未来，烤肉、小火锅、寿司等赛道具备扩张潜力。 上市以来海底捞经历高速扩张期、战略调整期、多品牌发展期等多个生命阶段，其管理层变更与公司发 展阶段相匹配。上市之初，张勇先生任公司董事会主席及首 ...

Group 1 - The fund name is Guotai Haitong High-end Equipment Mixed Initiation Securities Investment Fund, with A-class fund code 017933 and C-class fund code 017934 [1] - The fund is managed by Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. and the custodian is CITIC Bank [1] - The fund contract will automatically terminate if the net asset value falls below 200 million yuan by March 1, 2026, without the need for a meeting of fund shareholders [1][2] Group 2 - The fund will officially change its name from Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Initiation Securities Investment Fund to Guotai Haitong High-end Equipment Mixed Initiation Securities Investment Fund on September 29, 2025 [2] - To mitigate the impact of potential contract termination on investors, the fund has suspended subscription and regular investment services starting January 29, 2026 [2] - In the event of contract termination, the fund manager will establish a fund property liquidation team to carry out the liquidation process, and subscription and redemption services will cease [2]

白银独立银矿产能占比不足30%，矿山开采成本上行，供给增长乏力。根据美国地质监测局数据，全球 白银储量在2024年达到64万吨，整体增长缓慢。从矿产银供给端来看，2024年墨西哥、中国、秘鲁三国 占据全球产量的50%，全球白银产量以伴生矿为主，70%以上来自铜、铅、锌矿冶炼副产品，独立银矿 产能占比低，且矿产银产量因矿山品位下降、资本开支低迷和环保政策趋严而增长缓慢，而再生银占比 不足20%，未来白银供给端增长乏力。 白银是不可或缺的AI金属，工业属性拉动需求提升。根据世界白银协会，2021年以来全球白银供需缺 口持续存在。光伏、新能源汽车和人工智能为代表的新兴工业需求持续增长，白银是AI领域不可或缺 的金属，白银的高导电率、高导热率、低接触电阻多种属性决定了它在AI时代的战略地位。另外在贵 金属强势的背景下，白银投资需求与价格涨幅正相关，投资需求也是白银需求的增量来源。 风险提示：美联储降息政策波动，宏观经济波动，供给端变化，减银化技术进一步发展。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，白银两大属性形成强烈共振：商品属性上，白银工业需求占 比升至近60%，新兴领域成为增长核心；金融属性上，全球流动性宽松环 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近日美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关 税违法，随后特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。该行认为再 通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。市场预期美元和美债波动率暂时 走高但幅度有限，并且关注怎么打补丁。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1、对等关税被推翻，补丁怎么打? 2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关税违法，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上 称，将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。 短期补丁：122临时关税。对等关税被裁定违法后，现行有效关税仅剩232和301关税，平均税率从 17.6%降至9%，短期内(150天)可靠122条款维持税率基本不变。中长期来看，232行业关税和301国别关 税将成为主要补丁。 中长期补丁：232和301关税。2025年232关税已经应用于汽车、钢铁、铝、铜、家具、卡车，年初添加 了半导体(但多数已豁免)。2025年已启动并正在调查的还有制药、飞机、关键矿产、无人机、风力涡轮 机、机器人和工业机械、多晶硅，多数可于 ...

新春甫至，万象更新。值此农历马年来临之际，我谨代表国泰海通资管全体员工，向一直信赖与支持我们的各位投资者，致以最诚挚的新春祝福！ 从资金面来看，居民资产配置从房地产向金融资产迁移的趋势明确。同时，当前A股股息率较国债收益率及租售比仍具吸引力，且外资持仓仍有提升空间。 更重要的是，在资产荒环境下，叠加政策引导，险资等中长期资金入市将成为市场重要的稳定器和增量资金来源。 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司党委书记、董事长、总裁 陶耿 回望2025年，全球市场在叙事与流动性的交织中波澜起伏。国内资本市场稳中有进，A股呈现典型的"慢牛"格局：上证指数一度站上4000点，A股总市值历 史性突破100万亿元大关，全年成交额也首次超过400万亿元。债券市场则在低利率环境下呈现震荡，收益率全年小幅上行。 展望2026年，我们认为，世界与中国经济均处在关键的结构调整期，资本市场将面临新的宏观图景与运行逻辑。 一、宏观图景：内外结构深化，聚焦"提质增效" 从外部环境看，美国经济的内部分化与货币政策权衡仍将主导全球流动性预期。从国内环境看，2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，政策框架已明确转 向"稳中求进、提质增效"。这标志着宏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities provides a "Buy" rating for Xunce (3317.HK) with a target price of HKD 104.78, reinforcing its positioning as the "Chinese version of Palantir" and highlighting its leading status and long-term value in the real-time data infrastructure sector driven by AI large models and applications [1] Group 1: Valuation and Growth Potential - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, referencing comparable companies like Palantir and Snowflake, resulting in a target market value of HKD 33.8 billion and a target price of HKD 104.78, indicating over 50% upside potential from the report's publication date [2] - Revenue projections for the company are set at HKD 1.183 billion, HKD 2.177 billion, and HKD 3.311 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52% respectively, indicating a clear growth trajectory [2] Group 2: Market Position and Industry Leadership - The company is recognized as a leading provider of AI real-time data infrastructure in China, offering solutions for real-time data processing and analysis, capable of collecting, cleaning, managing, analyzing, and governing heterogeneous data within seconds [3] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the company holds the top position in the Chinese real-time data infrastructure and analytics market, with an 11.6% market share in the asset management sector, achieving full coverage of the top ten asset management firms in China [3] Group 3: Product Flexibility and Diversification - The company's products are highly modular, with over 300 functional modules developed by the end of 2025, allowing for flexible combinations into seven core solutions that cover both data infrastructure and asset management applications [4] - The company is accelerating its expansion into diversified industries such as financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, with revenue from diversified sectors reaching 61% in 2024, becoming a major growth driver [4] Group 4: Market Opportunity and Growth Rate - The report highlights that the rapid development of AI large models and applications is increasing the demand for real-time, unified, and efficient data processing platforms, with the current penetration rate of the real-time data infrastructure and analytics market in China being less than 4% [5] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, reaching a size of HKD 50.5 billion by 2029, with a projected CAGR of 22.0% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a vast market opportunity [5]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on XunCe Technology (03317) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 104.78, corresponding to a target market capitalization of HKD 33.8 billion, highlighting the company's potential to replicate a "Chinese version of Palantir" model across various sectors, leveraging its core capability in "data flow" during a critical transition in AI large models from general capabilities to vertical scenarios [1] Industry Transition - The AI industry is undergoing a strategic shift from "larger models" to "better data flows," emphasizing that true commercial value from large models requires differentiation in vertical scenarios rather than just algorithmic advantages [1] - The report identifies a significant opportunity in China's real-time data processing market, noting a transition from fragmented to holistic data management approaches, which enhances strategic efficiency by embedding global algorithmic models into business and data flows [1] Company Positioning - XunCe Technology has established a strong foothold in the real-time data infrastructure sector over the past decade, with its unified data platform capable of collecting, cleaning, managing, and analyzing heterogeneous data from multiple sources within seconds, aligning perfectly with the immediate decision-making needs of enterprises [3] - The company has built a comprehensive lifecycle solution covering investment monitoring, order execution, valuation, risk management, and compliance, positioning itself as a leader in the real-time data field by 2024 [3] - The market for real-time data infrastructure and analytics in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, with an expected market size of RMB 50.5 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth potential as AI large models catalyze market expansion [3] Diversification and Growth - XunCe is actively expanding its business across various industries, including financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, with revenue from diversified sectors increasing from 26% in 2022 to 61% in 2024, becoming a key growth driver [4] - The company has demonstrated sustainable business model viability, with the number of paying customers increasing from 182 to 232 and ARPU rising from RMB 1.58 million to RMB 2.72 million from 2022 to 2024, indicating enhanced pricing power as brand recognition and solution optimization improve [4] - Cathay Securities forecasts XunCe's revenue to reach RMB 1.183 billion, RMB 2.177 billion, and RMB 3.311 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52%, and anticipates a return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 101 million in 2026, further increasing to RMB 311 million in 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on XunCe Technology (03317) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 104.78, corresponding to a target market capitalization of HKD 33.8 billion, highlighting the company's potential to replicate a "Chinese version of Palantir" model across various sectors, leveraging its core capability in "data flow" during a critical transition in AI large models from general capabilities to vertical scenarios [1] Industry Transition - The AI industry is undergoing a strategic shift from "larger models" to "better data flows," emphasizing that true commercial value from large models requires differentiation in vertical scenarios rather than just algorithmic advantages [1] - The report identifies a significant opportunity in China's real-time data processing market, noting a transition from fragmented to holistic data management approaches, which enhances strategic efficiency by embedding global algorithmic models into business and data flows [1] Company Positioning - XunCe Technology has established a strong foothold in the real-time data infrastructure sector over the past decade, with its unified data platform capable of collecting, cleaning, managing, and analyzing heterogeneous data from multiple sources within seconds, aligning perfectly with the immediate decision-making needs of enterprises [3] - The company has built a comprehensive lifecycle solution covering investment monitoring, order execution, valuation, risk management, and compliance, positioning itself as a leader in the real-time data field by 2024 [3] Market Growth - The real-time data infrastructure and analytics market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, expected to reach RMB 50.5 billion by 2029, with current market penetration below 4%, indicating explosive growth potential driven by AI large models [3] - Data has been recognized as the fifth production factor in national strategy, with policies like "Data Twenty Articles" and the inclusion of data assets in financial statements driving increased investment in data infrastructure by enterprises [3] Diversification and Financial Performance - XunCe is actively expanding its business across various sectors, including financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, with revenue from diversified industries increasing from 26% in 2022 to 61% in 2024, becoming a key growth driver [4] - The number of paying customers grew from 182 to 232 between 2022 and 2024, while the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increased from RMB 1.58 million to RMB 2.72 million, indicating sustainable business model validation [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 1.183 billion, RMB 2.177 billion, and RMB 3.311 billion, with growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52% respectively, and a forecasted return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 101 million in 2026, further increasing to RMB 311 million in 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The pulp molding industry is experiencing high demand growth, with Chinese companies leading global expansion due to advantages in capacity, technology, and cost, resulting in a favorable growth outlook for the industry, which is rated as "overweight" [1][4]. Demand Side - The U.S. is the largest overseas market for Chinese pulp molding products, accounting for 41.3% of export value in 2024, with significant growth in imports since 2020 driven by policy, product advantages, and supply-side upgrades [10][11]. - U.S. plastic restrictions are clear and strictly enforced, accelerating the transition to alternatives like pulp molding, which offers lower degradation conditions, lower costs, and broader temperature applicability compared to alternatives like PLA and PBAT [12][16]. - The penetration rate of pulp molding in global markets remains low at 5.14% by 2025, with significant growth potential in food delivery and emerging sectors like electronics and agriculture [2][10]. Supply Side - The production process for pulp molding is continuously innovating, with advancements like semi-dry pressing and direct pressing technologies reducing energy consumption and enhancing product quality [30][31]. - China's production capacity is projected to account for 56.8% of global capacity by the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year production increase of 25%, while U.S. companies are exiting the market due to high costs and poor management [2][10]. Product Performance - Pulp molding products have lower degradation difficulty and better performance compared to other alternatives, with natural plant fibers decomposing within approximately three months, while synthetic materials like PLA require specific conditions for degradation [18][19]. - Pulp molding products are generally more cost-competitive than PLA and PBAT, with higher profit margins for manufacturers due to lower raw material costs [19][21]. Consumer Preferences - There is a growing consumer preference for pulp molding products in the U.S., driven by increased environmental awareness, with many consumers willing to pay a premium for sustainable packaging options [25][28].