智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近日美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关 税违法，随后特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。该行认为再 通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。市场预期美元和美债波动率暂时 走高但幅度有限，并且关注怎么打补丁。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1、对等关税被推翻，补丁怎么打? 2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关税违法，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上 称，将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。 短期补丁：122临时关税。对等关税被裁定违法后，现行有效关税仅剩232和301关税，平均税率从 17.6%降至9%，短期内(150天)可靠122条款维持税率基本不变。中长期来看，232行业关税和301国别关 税将成为主要补丁。 中长期补丁：232和301关税。2025年232关税已经应用于汽车、钢铁、铝、铜、家具、卡车，年初添加 了半导体(但多数已豁免)。2025年已启动并正在调查的还有制药、飞机、关键矿产、无人机、风力涡轮 机、机器人和工业机械、多晶硅，多数可于 ...

新春甫至，万象更新。值此农历马年来临之际，我谨代表国泰海通资管全体员工，向一直信赖与支持我们的各位投资者，致以最诚挚的新春祝福！ 从资金面来看，居民资产配置从房地产向金融资产迁移的趋势明确。同时，当前A股股息率较国债收益率及租售比仍具吸引力，且外资持仓仍有提升空间。 更重要的是，在资产荒环境下，叠加政策引导，险资等中长期资金入市将成为市场重要的稳定器和增量资金来源。 上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司党委书记、董事长、总裁 陶耿 回望2025年，全球市场在叙事与流动性的交织中波澜起伏。国内资本市场稳中有进，A股呈现典型的"慢牛"格局：上证指数一度站上4000点，A股总市值历 史性突破100万亿元大关，全年成交额也首次超过400万亿元。债券市场则在低利率环境下呈现震荡，收益率全年小幅上行。 展望2026年，我们认为，世界与中国经济均处在关键的结构调整期，资本市场将面临新的宏观图景与运行逻辑。 一、宏观图景：内外结构深化，聚焦"提质增效" 从外部环境看，美国经济的内部分化与货币政策权衡仍将主导全球流动性预期。从国内环境看，2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，政策框架已明确转 向"稳中求进、提质增效"。这标志着宏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities provides a "Buy" rating for Xunce (3317.HK) with a target price of HKD 104.78, reinforcing its positioning as the "Chinese version of Palantir" and highlighting its leading status and long-term value in the real-time data infrastructure sector driven by AI large models and applications [1] Group 1: Valuation and Growth Potential - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, referencing comparable companies like Palantir and Snowflake, resulting in a target market value of HKD 33.8 billion and a target price of HKD 104.78, indicating over 50% upside potential from the report's publication date [2] - Revenue projections for the company are set at HKD 1.183 billion, HKD 2.177 billion, and HKD 3.311 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52% respectively, indicating a clear growth trajectory [2] Group 2: Market Position and Industry Leadership - The company is recognized as a leading provider of AI real-time data infrastructure in China, offering solutions for real-time data processing and analysis, capable of collecting, cleaning, managing, analyzing, and governing heterogeneous data within seconds [3] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the company holds the top position in the Chinese real-time data infrastructure and analytics market, with an 11.6% market share in the asset management sector, achieving full coverage of the top ten asset management firms in China [3] Group 3: Product Flexibility and Diversification - The company's products are highly modular, with over 300 functional modules developed by the end of 2025, allowing for flexible combinations into seven core solutions that cover both data infrastructure and asset management applications [4] - The company is accelerating its expansion into diversified industries such as financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, with revenue from diversified sectors reaching 61% in 2024, becoming a major growth driver [4] Group 4: Market Opportunity and Growth Rate - The report highlights that the rapid development of AI large models and applications is increasing the demand for real-time, unified, and efficient data processing platforms, with the current penetration rate of the real-time data infrastructure and analytics market in China being less than 4% [5] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, reaching a size of HKD 50.5 billion by 2029, with a projected CAGR of 22.0% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a vast market opportunity [5]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on XunCe Technology (03317) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 104.78, corresponding to a target market capitalization of HKD 33.8 billion, highlighting the company's potential to replicate a "Chinese version of Palantir" model across various sectors, leveraging its core capability in "data flow" during a critical transition in AI large models from general capabilities to vertical scenarios [1] Industry Transition - The AI industry is undergoing a strategic shift from "larger models" to "better data flows," emphasizing that true commercial value from large models requires differentiation in vertical scenarios rather than just algorithmic advantages [1] - The report identifies a significant opportunity in China's real-time data processing market, noting a transition from fragmented to holistic data management approaches, which enhances strategic efficiency by embedding global algorithmic models into business and data flows [1] Company Positioning - XunCe Technology has established a strong foothold in the real-time data infrastructure sector over the past decade, with its unified data platform capable of collecting, cleaning, managing, and analyzing heterogeneous data from multiple sources within seconds, aligning perfectly with the immediate decision-making needs of enterprises [3] - The company has built a comprehensive lifecycle solution covering investment monitoring, order execution, valuation, risk management, and compliance, positioning itself as a leader in the real-time data field by 2024 [3] - The market for real-time data infrastructure and analytics in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, with an expected market size of RMB 50.5 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth potential as AI large models catalyze market expansion [3] Diversification and Growth - XunCe is actively expanding its business across various industries, including financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, with revenue from diversified sectors increasing from 26% in 2022 to 61% in 2024, becoming a key growth driver [4] - The company has demonstrated sustainable business model viability, with the number of paying customers increasing from 182 to 232 and ARPU rising from RMB 1.58 million to RMB 2.72 million from 2022 to 2024, indicating enhanced pricing power as brand recognition and solution optimization improve [4] - Cathay Securities forecasts XunCe's revenue to reach RMB 1.183 billion, RMB 2.177 billion, and RMB 3.311 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52%, and anticipates a return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 101 million in 2026, further increasing to RMB 311 million in 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on XunCe Technology (03317) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 104.78, corresponding to a target market capitalization of HKD 33.8 billion, highlighting the company's potential to replicate a "Chinese version of Palantir" model across various sectors, leveraging its core capability in "data flow" during a critical transition in AI large models from general capabilities to vertical scenarios [1] Industry Transition - The AI industry is undergoing a strategic shift from "larger models" to "better data flows," emphasizing that true commercial value from large models requires differentiation in vertical scenarios rather than just algorithmic advantages [1] - The report identifies a significant opportunity in China's real-time data processing market, noting a transition from fragmented to holistic data management approaches, which enhances strategic efficiency by embedding global algorithmic models into business and data flows [1] Company Positioning - XunCe Technology has established a strong foothold in the real-time data infrastructure sector over the past decade, with its unified data platform capable of collecting, cleaning, managing, and analyzing heterogeneous data from multiple sources within seconds, aligning perfectly with the immediate decision-making needs of enterprises [3] - The company has built a comprehensive lifecycle solution covering investment monitoring, order execution, valuation, risk management, and compliance, positioning itself as a leader in the real-time data field by 2024 [3] Market Growth - The real-time data infrastructure and analytics market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, expected to reach RMB 50.5 billion by 2029, with current market penetration below 4%, indicating explosive growth potential driven by AI large models [3] - Data has been recognized as the fifth production factor in national strategy, with policies like "Data Twenty Articles" and the inclusion of data assets in financial statements driving increased investment in data infrastructure by enterprises [3] Diversification and Financial Performance - XunCe is actively expanding its business across various sectors, including financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, with revenue from diversified industries increasing from 26% in 2022 to 61% in 2024, becoming a key growth driver [4] - The number of paying customers grew from 182 to 232 between 2022 and 2024, while the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increased from RMB 1.58 million to RMB 2.72 million, indicating sustainable business model validation [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 1.183 billion, RMB 2.177 billion, and RMB 3.311 billion, with growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52% respectively, and a forecasted return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 101 million in 2026, further increasing to RMB 311 million in 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The pulp molding industry is experiencing high demand growth, with Chinese companies leading global expansion due to advantages in capacity, technology, and cost, resulting in a favorable growth outlook for the industry, which is rated as "overweight" [1][4]. Demand Side - The U.S. is the largest overseas market for Chinese pulp molding products, accounting for 41.3% of export value in 2024, with significant growth in imports since 2020 driven by policy, product advantages, and supply-side upgrades [10][11]. - U.S. plastic restrictions are clear and strictly enforced, accelerating the transition to alternatives like pulp molding, which offers lower degradation conditions, lower costs, and broader temperature applicability compared to alternatives like PLA and PBAT [12][16]. - The penetration rate of pulp molding in global markets remains low at 5.14% by 2025, with significant growth potential in food delivery and emerging sectors like electronics and agriculture [2][10]. Supply Side - The production process for pulp molding is continuously innovating, with advancements like semi-dry pressing and direct pressing technologies reducing energy consumption and enhancing product quality [30][31]. - China's production capacity is projected to account for 56.8% of global capacity by the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year production increase of 25%, while U.S. companies are exiting the market due to high costs and poor management [2][10]. Product Performance - Pulp molding products have lower degradation difficulty and better performance compared to other alternatives, with natural plant fibers decomposing within approximately three months, while synthetic materials like PLA require specific conditions for degradation [18][19]. - Pulp molding products are generally more cost-competitive than PLA and PBAT, with higher profit margins for manufacturers due to lower raw material costs [19][21]. Consumer Preferences - There is a growing consumer preference for pulp molding products in the U.S., driven by increased environmental awareness, with many consumers willing to pay a premium for sustainable packaging options [25][28].

Core Viewpoint - MiniMax's stock price surged over 14%, reaching a new high of 778 HKD, reflecting strong market interest and investor confidence in the company's growth potential [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the latest update, MiniMax's stock price increased by 13.97%, currently trading at 775 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.032 billion HKD and a total market capitalization of 243.07 billion HKD [1]. Group 2: Product Launch - On February 12, MiniMax launched its latest flagship programming model, MiniMax M2.5, which is the world's first production-grade model designed natively for agent scenarios, supporting full-stack programming development across PC, App, and cross-platform applications [3]. Group 3: Analyst Coverage - Cathay Securities initiated coverage on MiniMax with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 620 HKD, highlighting the company's leading performance in self-developed multimodal large models, high overseas revenue proportion, and strong cash reserves [3]. - The firm projects MiniMax's revenue to reach 220 million USD by 2026, assigning a valuation of 113x PS, indicating the company's growth potential as a rare global AI player in the Hong Kong stock market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new refinancing regulations by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges is seen as a positive development for the investment banking sector, providing opportunities for both large and small brokerage firms to adapt and capitalize on the changes [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Response and Opportunities - The new refinancing regulations are expected to enhance the efficiency of refinancing processes, addressing previous concerns raised by market participants [2][10]. - In the first week following the announcement of the new regulations (February 10-12), at least 10 listed companies in the three exchanges issued new refinancing proposals, indicating a quick market response [2][11]. - The refinancing market in January saw a significant increase, with a total of 130 billion yuan raised, marking a 56% year-on-year growth and a 234% month-on-month increase [3][11]. Group 2: Impact on Brokerage Firms - Analysts believe that leading brokerage firms with strong pricing and underwriting capabilities will benefit the most from the new regulations, while smaller firms will need to find differentiated strategies to compete [4][12]. - The top five brokerage firms accounted for 54% of the underwriting volume in 2025, with CITIC Securities leading by underwriting 36 companies [4][12]. - Smaller brokerage firms are focusing on the Beijing Stock Exchange's refinancing market, which is seen as a key area for growth due to the concentration of small and medium-sized enterprises [5][13][14]. Group 3: Challenges and Requirements - The new regulations emphasize "supporting the strong and limiting the weak," which raises the bar for brokerage firms in terms of their capabilities, particularly in pricing for unprofitable technology companies [7][16]. - There is a limited number of firms with experience in pricing for unprofitable companies, highlighting a potential challenge for many in the industry [7][16]. - The ability to effectively integrate technology and finance is becoming increasingly important, requiring firms to enhance their understanding of industries and technologies [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new refinancing regulations by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges is expected to improve the investment banking business, creating opportunities for both large and small brokerages [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The new refinancing regulations aim to enhance the efficiency of refinancing approvals, responding to market demands and facilitating the rapid development of new economies [2]. - The first week following the policy announcement saw at least 10 listed companies in the three exchanges release new refinancing plans, indicating a positive market response [2][3]. - The refinancing market had already shown significant growth prior to the new regulations, with A-share refinancing in January reaching 130 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56% and a month-on-month increase of 234% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Banking Landscape - The new regulations are expected to benefit leading brokerages with strong pricing and underwriting capabilities, while smaller firms may need to find differentiated development paths [4][5]. - The top five brokerages accounted for 54% of the underwriting cases in 2025, indicating a concentration of market power among leading firms [5]. - Smaller brokerages are focusing on the Beijing Stock Exchange's refinancing market, which presents opportunities for growth due to the concentration of small and medium enterprises [6][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Requirements for Brokerages - The new refinancing rules emphasize "supporting the strong and limiting the weak," raising the capability requirements for investment banks [7]. - There is a limited number of brokerages experienced in pricing for unprofitable companies, highlighting a gap in expertise that needs to be addressed [8]. - The ability to integrate industry knowledge and resources is becoming increasingly important for brokerages, especially in the context of financing technology innovation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The transition from "K-shaped divergence" to "reflation" in the U.S. indicates a shift in global liquidity expectations from easing to tightening, impacting various asset classes and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: K-shaped Divergence - The structure of the U.S. balance sheet shows a healthy private sector, particularly post-COVID-19 QE, leading to a significant accumulation of net assets among high-net-worth individuals, primarily in real estate and equities [1]. - The current mortgage rate for high-net-worth individuals stands at 4.2%, while the new 30-year loan rate is at 6.1%, highlighting the disparity in borrowing costs [1]. - The "high-net-worth group" can leverage cash-out refinancing to support consumer spending and stock market liquidity, while the "new borrowing group" faces challenges in asset acquisition due to economic uncertainties [2]. Group 2: Transition to Reflation - The recent upward movement of the lower end of the K-shaped divergence suggests that high-net-worth individuals are stabilizing the economy and asset price expectations, creating favorable conditions for the new borrowing group [3]. - The housing sector, which is seen as a source of inflation, is experiencing a recovery, indicating a potential shift towards reflation in the U.S. economy [3]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Demand-driven inflation expectations exhibit a self-reinforcing mechanism, which can lower real interest rates and compress credit spreads, leading to a situation where actual mortgage rates are at their lowest in three years [4]. - The current dynamics explain why long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising while the housing sector is recovering against the trend [4]. Group 4: Global Liquidity Dynamics - The shift from "K-shaped divergence" to "reflation" is mirrored in global liquidity trends, with Bitcoin serving as a barometer for these changes, affecting tech-heavy indices and prompting style shifts within A-shares [5]. - The anticipated policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" suggests a non-typical reflation trade, resembling stagflation in some aspects, with a focus on the interconnectedness of major asset classes under changing liquidity conditions [5].