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9月非农会再来一次“大幅下修” 打开“50基点降息”大门吗?
智通财经网· 2025-08-30 11:38
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual benchmark revision of non-farm payroll (NFP) data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to reveal a significant downward adjustment of 550,000 to 800,000 jobs, which could impact market confidence in the U.S. labor market and potentially lead the Federal Reserve to consider a 50 basis point rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Data Revision - The primary reasons for the anticipated downward revision include the distortion of the birth-death model, which overestimates job creation by new businesses, and a significant reduction in illegal immigration, leading to a systematic overestimation of the labor force [1][2]. - Estimates suggest that these biases may result in an overstatement of actual employment by 40,000 to 70,000 jobs per month, accumulating to a total overstatement of 550,000 to 800,000 jobs annually [1][2]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - If the upcoming revision mirrors last year's adjustment, where the BLS revised down by 800,000 jobs, the Federal Reserve may face a decision on whether to implement a substantial 50 basis point rate cut, reinforcing that last year's cut was based on genuine economic slowdown rather than political compromise [1][2]. Group 3: Additional Signals of Data Inflation - Goldman Sachs identified at least five additional reasons indicating the employment data may be inflated, beyond the birth-death model [4]. - A notable factor is the recent decline in illegal immigration, which has significantly impacted labor supply and job creation estimates [5]. - Seasonal adjustment models may misinterpret genuine trends as seasonal fluctuations, leading to delayed corrections in employment data [6][7]. - Historical patterns show that original employment data is often revised downward during economic slowdowns, a trend observed since 1979 [8]. - ADP data challenges BLS's overestimation of job growth in the healthcare sector, suggesting that the actual growth is not as robust as reported [9]. - Household surveys may overestimate population and employment growth, with current models potentially overstating annual population growth by 1 million, leading to an overestimation of job growth by approximately 50,000 jobs per month [10].
渣打集团8月28日斥资741.54万英镑回购53.74万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 10:49
渣打集团(02888)发布公告,于2025年8月28日,该公司斥资741.54万英镑回购53.74万股。 ...
渣打集团(02888.HK)8月28日耗资742万英镑回购53.7万股
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-29 10:32
格隆汇8月29日丨渣打集团(02888.HK)发布公告,2025年8月28日耗资742万英镑回购53.7万股。 ...
渣打集团(02888)8月28日斥资741.54万英镑回购53.74万股
智通财经网· 2025-08-29 10:28
智通财经APP讯,渣打集团(02888)发布公告,于2025年8月28日,该公司斥资741.54万英镑回购53.74万 股。 ...
渣打集团(02888) - 翌日披露报表

2025-08-29 10:11
FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別: 股票 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 渣打集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月29日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司(「香港聯交所」)證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露,必須填妥第一章節 。 FF305 | 1). | 於2025年8月26日購回但尚未註銷 | | 521,631 | 0.0226 % | GBP | 13.8968 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 變動日期 | 2025年8月26日 | | | | | | 2). | 於2025年8月27日購回但尚未註銷 | | 532,467 | 0.0231 % | GBP | 13.8088 | | | 變動日期 | 2025年8月27日 | | | | | | 3). | 於2025年8月28日購回但尚 ...
需要融资的企业看这里:外贸银行扩大贷款规模!渣打银行融资企业贷,最高8100万
商业洞察· 2025-08-29 09:24
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing challenges faced by companies in securing financing, particularly in light of economic uncertainties and rising bankruptcy rates, urging businesses to proactively seek low-interest financing options aligned with government policies [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - Since 2025, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to continuous downward adjustments in global economic growth forecasts by world economic organizations [1]. - In 2024, over 55,000 companies in China are expected to exit the market through judicial bankruptcy procedures, highlighting a significant financial distress among businesses [1]. Group 2: Financing Strategies - Companies are advised to closely follow government policies and choose financing products that offer low interest rates and security [1]. - A proactive approach to financing is recommended, where businesses should prepare in advance to avoid last-minute financial struggles [5]. Group 3: Financing Products - Standard Chartered Bank has introduced a nationwide corporate financing product with a maximum limit of 81 million, offering an annual interest rate of 3.6% [3][9]. - The financing product is designed to address the cash flow challenges faced by companies, with flexible repayment options and minimal requirements regarding credit and debt [10][13]. Group 4: Application Process - The application process involves submitting necessary documents for review, with results available within two hours, followed by a funding timeline of 20-25 working days upon approval [10]. - The financing product is accessible to a wide range of industries, including mining, technology, manufacturing, and e-commerce, among others [10].
渣打集团(02888)8月27日斥资735.26万英镑回购53.25万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 10:39
智通财经APP讯,渣打集团(02888)发布公告,该公司于2025年8月27日斥资735.26万英镑回购53.25万股 股份。 该信息由智通财经网提供 ...
渣打集团(02888.HK)8月27日耗资735万英镑回购53.2万股

Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-28 10:33
格隆汇8月28日丨渣打集团(02888.HK)发布公告,2025年8月27日耗资735万英镑回购53.2万股。 ...
渣打集团8月27日斥资735.26万英镑回购53.25万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 10:29
渣打集团(02888)发布公告,该公司于2025年8月27日斥资735.26万英镑回购53.25万股股份。 ...
渣打集团(02888) - 翌日披露报表

2025-08-28 10:03
FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別: 股票 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 渣打集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月28日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司(「香港聯交所」)證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露,必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | | 已發行股份(不包括庫存股份)變動 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註 ...