智通财经5月2日电，渣打集团第一季度经调整除税前利润22.8亿美元，预估21.5亿美元。 ...

渣打银行分析师Geoffrey Kendrick 预测，多项指标显示比特币将迎来新一轮上涨，看好比特币在Q2 冲上12 万美元。同时伯恩斯坦分析师也指 出，零售卖压耗尽、企业积累竞赛扩大以及比特币ETF 资金回流正推动「供应挤压」，可能将使比特币创下历史新高。 加密货币市场自上周开始迎来复苏，比特币近日也多次短暂突破95,000 美元关卡，撰稿当下又来到95,329 美元，币价表现相当坚挺。 比特币走势。图源：OKX 渣打银行：比特币将迎来新一轮上涨 市场目前高度关注比特币能否突破当前阻力，再次冲击10 万美元，甚至能否续写历史新高？ 对此背景，渣打银行全球数位资产研究主管Geoffrey Kendrick 在周一（28）发布的最新报告中就预测，比特币即将迎来下一波涨势。 他提出多项支持这一判断的指标：首先，美国国债期限溢价（与比特币价格高度相关）已达12 年来高点，或许暗示了比特币的看涨情绪；其次， 交易时段分析表明，美国投资者正积极寻求非美国资产，这一点自川普此前宣布对除中国以外的所有国家，实施90 天关税宽限后尤为明显。 此外，亚洲投资者也开始买进比特币，这进一步强化了上涨动能。同时，持有超过1,000 ...

与此同时，渣打银行发布了一份研究报告，预测称，到 2025 年第二季度末，比特币的价格可能会达到 12 万美元，到年底甚至可能触及 20 万美元。 据渣打银行数字资产研究主管杰弗里・肯德里克称，各种宏观经济因素正促使投资者转向比特币。他指 出，对美国国债收益率的担忧日益加剧，目前美国国债收益率处于 12 年来的最高水平，这表明投资者 对美国债务开始持谨慎态度。随着这种转变，对于那些希望将资金从美国资产转移出去的人来说，比特 币已成为更具吸引力的选择。 站长之家(ChinaZ.com) 4月30日 消息:近日，比特币的价格稳步攀升，再次吸引了全球的关注。 周一，比特币价格其价格触及 95，548 美元的高点，随后稳定在 95，055 美元左右。这也意味着，比特 币价格在过去一周里，上涨了 7.38%。这一增长让比特币的市值达到了约 1.8 万亿美元，投资者们重新 燃起了乐观情绪。值得一提的事，过去 24 小时的交易量接近 195 亿美元，表明买家在市场中仍然活 跃。 当前的积极情绪在很大程度上归因于机构参与度的提高和强劲的技术指标。最大的进展之一是 Strategy 宣布新购买了价值 14 亿美元的比特币 —— ...

据渣打银行分析师杰夫肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）称，比特币在今年年初的下跌态势，将在本季度让 位于新一轮涨势，并创下历史新高。 渣打银行预计比特币二季度将创下历史新高，该行策略师已经看到资金从黄金ETF流向比特币ETF...... 肯德里克预计，全球第一大加密货币将在未来几个月内创下新的历史高点，利好因素将推动比特币涨至 12万美元。 关税引发的购买行为 其次，渣打银行的分析显示，自特朗普4月9日宣布将大多数国家的对等关税推迟90天以来，美国投资者 一直在抢购比特币。 这位数字资产研究全球主管周一写道："虽然很难预测比特币大幅上涨的时机，但我们认为，目前从美 国资产中撤出的潜在战略资产重新配置，可能引发这样的上涨行情。" "如果是这样的话，我们预计比特币将在第二季度创下历史新高，并在夏季进一步上涨。我们维持比特 币年底达到20万美元的预测。" 这位坚定的加密货币多头为今年以来表现令人失望的比特币描绘了乐观的前景。人们曾寄望于特朗普政 府对加密货币友好的政策能推动比特币进一步上涨，但在1月份触及10.9万美元后，它失去了上涨动 力。 如今，肯德里克认为有三大理由将推动比特币大幅上涨。 经济动荡提升比 ...

值得注意的是，渣打银行在2024年可谓精准预测比特币史无前例的牛市曲线，该机构在去年长期押注2024年年底比特币价格将突破10万美元这一超级大 关，比特币最终在12月突破10万美元创下历史最高点位。 渣打银行的这一看涨目标相较当前比特币价格约有25%的潜在上涨空间。渣打银行还预计，到2025年底，比特币价格将跃升至20万美元这一历史级别大 关，即今年年底比特币价格有望较二季度目标点位再涨约 65%，并较当前水平高出足足110%。 精准预测比特币2024年将突破10万美元大关的渣打银行分析师 Geoff Kendrick 在致客户的最新报告中写道，看涨情绪的一大推力来自美国国债期限溢价 (UST term premium)——该指标与比特币走势可谓关系密切——目前处于12年来的最高位。期限溢价通常指代的是投资者持有长期美国国债相较于短期国债 所要求的额外收益率。 这位长期看涨比特币价格趋势的分析师还指出，币圈的"巨鲸"们(即大额持币者)正大举增持比特币。早些时候，最大企业级比特币持有者 MicroStrategy(该 公司现在名为Strategy，由 迈克尔·塞勒所创立)披露又一次周度级别的增持比特币。 Str ...

目前，传统的金融业也已经嗅到了稳定币市场的商机，越来越多的银行开始涉足稳定币市场。法国兴业银行、德 国Oddo BHF、英国Revolut，甚至连香港金管局都开始纷纷布局稳定币市场，期望在这一领域分得一杯羹。 法国兴业银行的子公司Forge已经向散户投资者推出了欧元支持的稳定币。Visa于10月推出了一个供银行发行稳定 币的代币化网络，并计划在2025年与BBVA合作进行试点。Visa的加密货币主管Cuy Sheffield透露，来自香港、新 加坡和巴西的银行对稳定币表现出浓厚兴趣，Visa正与全球多家银行合作。 渣打银行同样在积极参与，已被香港金融管理局选为港币稳定币的首批发行商之一，计划于2025年上线。 稳定币最初主要用于加密资产的交易，但近年来其应用范围迅速扩展。目前，稳定币在跨境支付和外汇储蓄等常 规金融活动中的应用越来越广泛，同时在去中心化金融（DeFi）等新型金融活动中也有重要应用。稳定币的跨境 属性和价值稳定性使其成为国际支付和资产储备的理想选择。 据媒体报道，3月下旬原中国社科院金融研究所所长李扬对比特币和稳定币的发展提出了自己的看法，他介绍说， 美国不仅明确要发展比特币，而且把比特币列为国 ...

Financial Performance - Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) increased to 11.7%, up 160 basis points year-over-year[4] - Total shareholder return reached 47.5%, compared to 9.4% in 2023[6] - Operating income totaled $19.696 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth[6] - Pre-tax profit was $6.811 billion, representing a 21% increase compared to the previous year[6] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased to 168.1 cents, up from 141.3 cents year-over-year[6] - Revenue growth for the company was reported at 14% on a constant currency basis[46] - The company reported a 21% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profit to $6.8 billion, supported by strong cost control and a resilient investment portfolio[57] - Revenue for 2024 was reported at $19.7 billion, reflecting a 14% growth on a constant currency basis, with wealth solutions revenue reaching a record high, growing by 29%[56] - The group's operating income grew by 14% to 19.7 billion, driven by strong double-digit growth in wealth management and global banking businesses[157] - The group's pre-tax basic profit increased by 21% to 6.8 billion, with a credit impairment expense of 557 million, reflecting a low annualized loan loss rate of 19 basis points[157] Capital and Shareholder Returns - Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio stood at 14.2%, exceeding the target range of 13-14%[5] - The company announced an increase in annual dividends to 37 cents per share, representing a 37% increase[46] - A total of 4.9 billion was allocated for share buybacks, including an additional 1.5 billion announced during the year[46] - The total shareholder return announced since the full-year results of 2023 reached $4.9 billion, with a proposed final dividend increase of 37% to $0.37 per share[58] - The company plans to return at least HKD 8 billion to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 and aims to continue increasing the annual dividend per share over time[163] Sustainable Financing and Growth - Sustainable financing amounted to $121 billion, an increase of $34 billion[6] - The company is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2025, marking a significant milestone in its sustainability efforts[48] - The company has facilitated 121 billion in sustainable financing since early 2021, progressing towards a 300 billion target by 2030[61] - Sustainable finance business revenue increased by 36% year-on-year, reaching 982 million in 2024, nearing the 1 billion target for 2025[61] - The company is expanding its sustainable and transitional financing capabilities, responding to increasing market demand for such advisory services[48] Strategic Focus and Market Presence - The bank's strategy focuses on connecting clients to sustainable growth opportunities across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East[3] - The company has a presence in 53 markets globally, connecting high-growth and emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East with mature economies in Europe and the Americas[38] - The group aims to enhance its strategy by integrating the strengths of corporate and investment banking to seek cross-border opportunities[44] - The company continues to prioritize investment in high-growth markets, which have shown robust performance[44] - The company aims to enhance business strength and deliver higher returns while focusing on sustainable growth opportunities across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East[56] Diversity and Inclusion - The company emphasizes diversity and inclusion, with 33.1% of senior positions held by women, an increase of 0.6 percentage points[6] - The percentage of women in senior leadership positions has increased to 33.1%, up from 32.5% in December 2023, marking a 7.8 percentage point increase since December 2016[82] - Employee Net Promoter Score (eNPS) improved to 20.44, up 5.42 points[6] Risk Management and Economic Outlook - The company is focused on risk management strategies to navigate ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, ensuring business resilience[168] - The company acknowledges the complex interconnections between macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, particularly in critical supply chains[177] - The company is actively monitoring emerging risks, including potential future pandemics and cross-border conflicts, to manage their impact[176] - The company follows a diversification principle across products, regions, customer categories, and industries to manage credit risk[174] - The company is committed to managing environmental, social, and governance risks, particularly in relation to climate change and its financial implications[174] Client Engagement and Wealth Management - The wealth management and retail banking business recorded a 29% revenue growth compared to 2023, on a constant currency basis[47] - The company plans to invest 1.5 billion to enhance services for affluent clients and aims to attract 200 billion in net new inflows over the next five years[47] - The net inflow of new funds from affluent clients increased by 61% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 43.6 billion, supported by strong growth in new clients and digital engagement[141] - The number of international affluent clients grew by 18% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 325,000, achieving a three-year growth target set in 2023[141] - The wealth management business is expected to achieve a double-digit compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029[114] Digital Transformation and Innovation - The company continues to invest in digital transformation, with operating expenses increasing by 8% due to investments in new and existing ventures[154] - The digital transaction activation rate for clients reached 68.3%, up from 64.5% in 2023, indicating improved customer engagement in digital services[140] - Mox has approximately 650,000 customers in 2024, covering over 10% of the eligible population for account opening in Hong Kong, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 15% and a deposit growth of 57%[152] - Trust Bank reached 974,000 customers in 2024, representing 18% of Singapore's adult population, with a 160% increase in revenue compared to 2023 and a 149% increase in customer loan balances to 600 million[152] Economic Projections and Global Trends - The global economic growth rate is expected to slightly slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, with Asian markets projected to grow by 4.8%[67] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow from 2.5% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, driven by personal consumption[90] - China's economic growth is expected to slow down to 4.5% in 2025, with significant contributions from net exports in 2024 but a reduction anticipated in 2025[99] - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S.-China trade tensions, poses risks to global economic stability and growth[90] - Emerging markets are facing challenges from high debt levels and aging populations, which may hinder long-term growth prospects[91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Standard Chartered PLC [2] Core Views - The report highlights that net interest income (NII) is under pressure in 2025, but cost control measures are expected to take effect [1][5] - The company reported a 14% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2024 on a constant currency basis, exceeding guidance [3][18] - A new $1.5 billion share buyback was announced, following the completion of a previous buyback [3][18] - The core Tier 1 capital ratio for Q4 2024 was stable at 14.2%, with risk-weighted assets declining by $2 billion [3][18] - The report projects net income growth of 9.6% and 11.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Financial Summary - For 2024, net interest income is expected to be $10.4 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, while non-interest income is projected to grow by 20% [5][21] - The report indicates that credit impairment losses for 2024 rose by 5% year-on-year to $557 million [8][21] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 59% in 2024, a 4 percentage point year-on-year improvement [9][21] - The report anticipates a dividend yield increase from 1.4% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2025 [2][16] Valuation - The target price for Standard Chartered PLC is set at HK$129.57, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.80 for 2025 [4] - The report provides a forecast for diluted EPS of $1.70 for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 9 [2][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Standard Chartered PLC (2888 HK) [1]. Core Insights - Standard Chartered's Q4 2024 revenue exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, while profit fell short due to higher-than-expected other impairment losses and restructuring charges [2][4]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) increased by 42 basis points year-on-year to 2.12%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 1.88% [3][8]. - Credit impairment losses were lower than expected, while other impairment losses were significantly higher than anticipated, leading to a combined total that exceeded forecasts [2][4]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio rose to 14.2%, above the consensus estimate of 14.1% [3][8]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 2.17%, which is lower than the expected 2.32% [4][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit - The underlying operating income grew by 20.1% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus estimate of 11.0% [3][4]. - Net interest income increased by 19.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of 7.8% [3][4]. - Statutory profit before taxation decreased by 29.6% year-on-year, which was below the consensus estimate of a 9.6% decline [3][8]. Loan and Deposit Performance - Loans and advances to customers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, which was worse than the consensus estimate of a 0.3% decline [3][8]. - Customer accounts saw a decline of 1.1% year-on-year, which was better than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 14.9% decrease [3][8]. Impairment and Asset Quality - Credit impairment losses amounted to $130 million, a year-on-year increase of 109.7%, but lower than the consensus estimate of $254 million [3][4]. - Other impairment losses reached $353 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 761.0%, exceeding the consensus estimate of $53 million [3][4]. - The gross NPL balance decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, which was better than the expected decline of 1.5% [4][8]. Capital and Return Metrics - The CET1 ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 14.2%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 14.1% [3][8]. - The annualized Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 8.1%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 6.6% [3][4].

Core Insights - Standard Chartered Group reported a record high operating income of $19.7 billion for the full year 2024, representing a 14% increase on a constant currency basis [1] - In the fourth quarter, operating income rose by 21% to $4.8 billion [1] - The company announced a $1.5 billion share buyback program and proposed a final dividend of $0.28 per share [1]