证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient demand and stable loan quality, with a focus on shareholder returns through ongoing share buybacks. The operational stability and quality are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Loan Quality and Profitability - The C-M2 ratio slightly increased to 0.60% in Q1 2025 from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. The 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 88.1%. The loan quality is considered healthy, with a provisioning rate of approximately 4.9%, significantly higher than the long-term vintage overdue rate of 2.5-3.5%, indicating a strong profit cushion [2] Demand and Customer Acquisition Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a loan issuance of 88.9 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating resilient credit demand. The customer acquisition cost per new credit user increased to 384 RMB from 312 RMB in Q4 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of API channel acquisitions and increased spending on high-cost information flow channels [3] Shareholder Returns - As of May 19, 2025, the company repurchased shares worth 178 million USD under a 450 million USD buyback plan, with expectations to complete the remaining amount within the year. The anticipated minimum shareholder return for the year is approximately 10%, supported by a commitment to a 20-30% dividend payout ratio [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion RMB respectively. The target prices are set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 6.5x for 2025 and DCF methods [5]

Core Viewpoint - QFIN Technology (奇富科技) has demonstrated impressive financial performance, with a quarterly revenue of 46.9 billion and a net profit of 18 million, attracting positive attention from various brokerage firms [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a quarterly revenue of 46.9 billion and a net profit of 18 million [1] - Major brokerage firms have upgraded their ratings and target prices for QFIN Technology, with Citigroup and Bank of America setting target prices at $58.5 and $52.7 respectively, while CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock with a target price of 253.4 HKD [2] Business Overview - QFIN Technology primarily operates in the credit sector, leveraging AI technology to enhance its business processes [4][5] - The company has established partnerships with 163 financial institutions, serving 58 million users, indicating a strong market presence [6] Technological Integration - The integration of AI into core business processes such as customer acquisition, approval, and risk control has led to significant operational improvements [7] - Key performance indicators show a 6% year-on-year increase in new credit users and a 15.8% increase in loan facilitation volume [10] Cost Control and Competitive Advantage - Effective cost control is crucial for survival and profitability in the financial industry, and QFIN Technology has established a leading advantage in this area [11][12] - The company's intelligent ecosystem is expected to reduce marginal costs and increase marginal returns, thereby enhancing profit margins [13] Business Growth Opportunities - QFIN Technology's subsidiary, QFIN Data Technology, has seen a 144% year-on-year growth in business scale through partnerships with mid-sized city commercial banks [14] - The ongoing investment in AI is likely to lead to a reassessment of the company's long-term value in the market [15] Valuation and Market Position - The competitive barriers created by the credit intelligence model are expected to enhance earnings per share (EPS) and drive valuation increases [16] - The company's first-mover advantage in the intelligent ecosystem positions it favorably for future industry competition, potentially leading to a scarcity premium [17]

Core Insights - The core focus of Qifu Technology is on AI integration within its operations, emphasizing a company-wide shift towards AI-driven strategies and projects [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Qifu Technology reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with AI being a central theme in their financial results and management discussions [1] - The company has established a large model team in the fintech sector, directly managed by CEO Wu Haisheng, indicating a significant commitment to AI [1] AI Strategy and Implementation - The company launched an "all-in AI" initiative, encouraging all employees to participate in AI-related projects, marking a shift from a cautious approach to a more aggressive AI strategy [2][4] - The "Deepbank" project aims to redefine the financial industry's intelligent paradigm, with a focus on rapid output and implementation [2][3] Employee Engagement and Culture - Qifu Technology has created a culture of urgency and excitement around AI, with numerous internal meetings and discussions to align employees on AI strategies [3][4] - Different employee groups have emerged, including those who are enthusiastic, anxious, or resistant to change, reflecting a diverse range of attitudes towards the AI transformation [4] Investment and Resource Allocation - The company has committed to unprecedented investments in AI, with no upper limit on budgets for AI-related human resources and development [7][11] - Qifu Technology's "Deepbank Star Sea Plan" aims to attract top AI talent, offering competitive salaries and internal mobility opportunities [10][11] AI Application and Development - The company has begun implementing AI agents in its core business processes, significantly improving operational efficiency and decision-making capabilities [14][15] - Qifu Technology's AI decision-making module has shown promising results, with a model AUC value of 0.64 in risk prediction, indicating effective AI integration [14] Strategic Partnerships - Qifu Technology has signed "AI+ Financial Strategic Cooperation Agreements" with multiple banks, focusing on enhancing marketing, risk control, and decision-making processes [15] - The CEO emphasized that AI technology is crucial for the next generation of fintech, positioning the company for long-term growth through AI-driven innovations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Q1 2025 performance of Qifu Technology exceeded previous expectations, driven by higher loan volumes and improved funding costs [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to 4.69 billion yuan, while non-GAAP net profit rose by 60% year-on-year but decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 1.93 billion yuan [1][2] - The net service fee rate was approximately 5.6%, slightly down from 5.96% in Q4 2024, attributed to a decrease in average funding costs and stable asset quality [2] Loan Volume and Structure - Q1 2025 loan volume increased by 16% year-on-year but decreased by 1% quarter-on-quarter to 88.9 billion yuan, with technology solution loans accounting for about 49% [1] - The company expects loan volume growth of 5%-10% year-on-year for 2025, maintaining previous forecasts [1] Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a semi-annual dividend policy, with cash dividends of $0.6 and $0.7 per ADS planned for 1H24 and 2H24 respectively [2] - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased 9.1 million ADS for approximately $405 million, with total repurchase expected to be no less than $680 million for 2025 [2] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the "Assisted Loan New Regulations" is expected to promote industry standardization and eliminate unreasonable pricing behaviors, benefiting compliant institutions like the company [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2% and 4% to 7.17 billion yuan and 7.82 billion yuan respectively due to optimized funding and credit costs [3] - The company's current trading multiples are 7.1x and 6.5x for 2025 and 2026 P/E in the US market, and 6.6x and 6.0x in the Hong Kong market, with target prices maintained at $60.0 and HK$253.4 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a significant year-on-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025, supported by high-quality earnings and substantial shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 loan volume was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The loan balance reached 1,403 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit take rate for 1Q25 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in the previous quarter, indicating a potential impact on short-term profitability [3]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in 1Q25 from 0.57% in 4Q24, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0%. However, these levels remain healthy compared to historical averages [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% from 617% in the previous quarter, indicating strong earnings quality [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices maintained at 55.6 USD for US stocks and 220.9 HKD for Hong Kong stocks [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Core Views - The company's 1Q25 performance met expectations with revenue of 46.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-over-year increase of 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.0 billion RMB, which was slightly below the previous quarter but showed a year-over-year increase of 54.6% [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a cautious lending strategy, with a projected moderate growth in loan volume for 2025, supported by high-quality earnings and significant shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 loan volume was 889 billion RMB, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-over-year increase of 15.8%. The loan balance reached 1,403 billion RMB, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-over-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit take rate for 1Q25 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in the previous quarter, indicating a potential impact on short-term profitability [3]. Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in 1Q25 from 0.57% in 4Q24, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. Despite these increases, the risk indicators remain at healthy levels, below the average of 0.62% from 1Q21 to 4Q24 [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% from 617% in the previous quarter, indicating strong earnings quality [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 71 billion RMB, 77 billion RMB, and 82 billion RMB respectively, with target prices maintained at 55.6 USD for US stocks and 220.9 HKD for Hong Kong stocks [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for Qifu Technology-S (03660) for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% respectively, due to optimized funding/credit costs and higher-than-expected loan disbursement in Q1 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Qifu Technology's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to 4.69 billion yuan, while non-GAAP net profit rose by 60% year-on-year but decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 1.93 billion yuan, exceeding previous expectations [2] - The company’s net service fee rate was approximately 5.6%, slightly down from 5.96% in Q4 2024, attributed to a decrease in average funding costs and stable asset quality [4] Loan Disbursement and Customer Acquisition - In Q1 2025, the company optimized customer acquisition channels, adding 7 embedded finance partners, with loan disbursement increasing by 16% year-on-year to 88.9 billion yuan, although the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slightly declined due to seasonal factors [3] - The company expects loan disbursement to grow by 5%-10% year-on-year in 2025, maintaining previous forecasts [3] Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a semi-annual dividend policy, planning to distribute cash dividends of $0.6 and $0.7 per ADS for the first and second halves of 2024 respectively [5] - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased 9.1 million ADS for approximately $404.5 million, with an expected total repurchase amount of no less than $680 million for 2025 [5] Industry Development - The introduction of the "Loan Assistance New Regulations" on April 1 aims to enhance the regulatory framework of the industry, potentially eliminating unreasonable pricing and charging behaviors, which may benefit compliant and well-operating institutions like Qifu Technology [6]

Group 1: Company Developments - CATL officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20, with a closing price of HKD 306.20 per share, representing a 16.43% increase from the offering price of HKD 263 [1] - Shandong Kuailu Technology submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 19, holding a 2.2% market share in China's short-distance green travel technology service market based on projected 2024 revenue [2] - Qifu Technology reported a revenue of CNY 4.691 billion for Q1, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, with net profit reaching approximately CNY 1.8 billion, up from CNY 1.16 billion in the same period last year [3] - FWD Group, founded by Richard Li, submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 19, marking its continued efforts for market expansion and capital operation strategy [4] Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,681.48, with a gain of 1.49% on May 20 [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reached 5,315.56, increasing by 1.15% [5] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 8,589.08, up by 1.52% [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, non-GAAP net income increased by 59.9% year over year to RMB 1.93 billion, while non-GAAP EPS on a fully diluted basis rose by 78.5% to RMB 13.5 [7][28] - Total revenue for Q1 was RMB 4.69 billion, compared to RMB 4.48 billion in Q4 and RMB 4.15 billion a year ago [22] - The take rate for the quarter reached 5.7%, up 2.2 percentage points year over year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.11 billion in Q1, up from RMB 2.89 billion in Q4 and RMB 3.02 billion a year ago [22] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 1.58 billion in Q1, slightly down from RMB 1.59 billion in Q4 but up from RMB 1.14 billion a year ago [23] - Loan facilitation and origination volume increased by 15.8% year over year [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 1,540,000 new credit line users in Q1, up 6% year over year, with new borrowers increasing approximately 41% year over year to 1,130,000 [12] - The delinquency rate after thirty-day collections (C:M2) remained stable at 0.6% [11][26] - The average internal rate of return (IRR) of loans originated was 21.4%, compared to 21.3% in the prior quarter [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on an AI plus credit strategy, aiming to build the industry's first AI agent platform to enhance core credit processes [8] - Plans to recruit an additional 100 algorithm engineers by the end of the year to accelerate transformation into an AI-native organization [8] - The company expects to maintain high-quality growth in its core loan facilitation business while empowering financial institutions through technology solutions [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the macroeconomic environment, noting early signs of recovery in China's economy [6][18] - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency and optimize capital allocation while maintaining a prudent approach to risk management [18][66] - The outlook for Q2 2025 includes expected non-GAAP net income between RMB 1.75 billion and RMB 1.85 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 24-31% [32] Other Important Information - The company issued RMB 6.6 billion in asset-backed securities (ABS) in Q1, a year-over-year increase of approximately 25% [12] - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 18%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to withholding tax provisions [28] - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, expecting total repurchases this year to be no less than USD 680 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of new loan facilitation rules and credit quality trends - Management indicated that new regulations are a positive signal for the industry, promoting orderly development and recognizing the value of leading loan facilitation platforms [36] - Asset quality remains stable, with the C2M2 ratio at 0.6%, significantly better than previous periods [39] Question: Asset quality indicators and credit demand trends - The increase in day one delinquency was attributed to changes in loan mix, with a higher percentage from embedded finance channels [44] - Credit demand has shown early signs of recovery, but macro uncertainties persist [47] Question: Impact of US-China trade tensions and potential delisting risk - The direct impact of tariffs on the business is limited, with only a small percentage of loan volume related to exports [50] - The company has a clear plan to address potential ADR delisting risks, including a secondary listing in Hong Kong [54] Question: Customer acquisition costs and strategies - The increase in customer acquisition costs was driven by a change in business mix, with a focus on efficiency rather than just cost [60] - The company plans to adjust acquisition strategies based on macro conditions and customer demand [62] Question: Loan demand trends and funding liquidity - Recent policy measures to boost consumption have positively impacted credit demand, and funding costs are expected to decrease slightly [66] - The company will maintain a prudent lending strategy while pursuing sustainable growth [67]