作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 一季度表现强势的科技股，今日迎来强势反弹。 其中， 机器人 ETF(159770) 今日大涨， 其跟踪的标的指数今日涨 3.16% ，近 11 个交易日涨超 11% 。 此外，消费电子、小米汽车、华为汽车、特斯拉供应链等概念纷纷交出近两周最为强势的上涨。 到底发生了什么？ 重新布局机会，逐渐明朗了？ 关键改口！ 01 昨夜美国政界和科技界最重要的两个人纷纷发话，一下子改变了市场风向。 首先是美国总统特朗普的意外松口，此前几天他一直向鲍威尔施压，要求其降息， 甚至威胁将其解雇 ，结果周二面对记者采访时 表示， 虽然 他仍对美联储未能更迅速地降息感到不满，但他无意解雇鲍威尔。 此前他不断加大对鲍威尔的批评力度， 再度引发了 "股债汇三杀"，金价走高。一经松口后市场情绪便迅速平息了下来，昨夜大型科技股带领 市场反弹，金价则从 3500 的历史高位跳水逾 3% 。 其次，特朗普另外一处松口对于中国股票资产表现影响更大。他承认美国目前对中国出口商品的关税过高，预计税率将大幅降低。 虽然也不会降为 0 ，但起码表明特朗普在其标志性的关税政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is undergoing a painful revaluation, with companies like UBTECH facing significant losses despite revenue growth, raising concerns about the industry's future viability [1][17]. Company Performance - UBTECH reported a revenue of 1.305 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, and a gross profit of 374 million RMB, up 12.4% [1][9]. - Despite revenue growth, UBTECH incurred a loss of 1.16 billion RMB in 2024, although this was a reduction from a loss of 1.265 billion RMB in 2023 [1][7]. - The humanoid robot segment only delivered 10 units in 2024, generating revenue of 35 million RMB, which accounted for just 2.7% of total revenue [1][11]. Business Segmentation - The consumer robot segment was the main driver of revenue growth, achieving 477 million RMB in 2024, a significant increase of 88.1% [7][9]. - Other segments, such as logistics robots, saw a decline in revenue, with a 17.5% drop to 322 million RMB, indicating a slowdown in traditional business areas [10]. - The gross margin for UBTECH decreased from 31.5% to 28.7% due to the low margins associated with consumer robot products [8][10]. Market Sentiment - Concerns about the humanoid robot industry's sustainability have been amplified by reports of financial distress among leading companies, such as Dalu Robotics, which faced a funding crisis [1][14]. - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some prominent investors like Zhu Xiaohu expressing skepticism about the commercial viability of humanoid robots, while others defend the industry's long-term potential [6][18]. Challenges and Opportunities - High pricing of humanoid robots, averaging 3.5 million RMB per unit, limits market accessibility for both enterprises and consumers [11][19]. - The industry is exploring cost reduction and application expansion, with some companies beginning to deploy humanoid robots in industrial settings [22]. - UBTECH plans to deliver 20 humanoid robots to Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile by mid-2025, marking a significant step towards industrial application [22].

Summary of the Conference Call for UBTECH Robotics Company Overview - UBTECH Robotics, established in March 2012, is a leading company in the humanoid robotics sector with comprehensive technology capabilities in hardware, control, and artificial intelligence [3][4] Key Achievements and Developments - As of June 2024, UBTECH has secured 2,450 patents related to robotics and AI, showcasing its technological leadership in China [3] - The company has evolved its product line from consumer robots to the Walker series of humanoid robots, indicating significant product development efforts [4] Business Segments - UBTECH's operations are divided into four main segments: 1. **Educational Robots** 2. **Logistics Intelligent Robots** - experiencing rapid growth 3. **Consumer Robots** - performing well in overseas markets 4. **Industry Custom Robots** - achieving millions in revenue in 2024 [5][8] Financial Performance - Revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 740 million CNY in 2020 to 1.056 billion CNY in 2023, with projections of around 1.3 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% [7] - Despite being in a loss-making position due to high R&D costs, the company has entered a loss reduction phase and aims for breakeven as revenues grow [7] Market Trends and Industry Dynamics - The logistics and consumer robotics sectors are the main growth drivers for UBTECH, while educational AI robots face fluctuations due to government acceptance processes [9] - Domestic policies are expected to significantly boost the robotics industry, with substantial government investments in large-scale funds [11] Competitive Advantages - UBTECH has a strong competitive edge in humanoid robot applications due to its extensive data resources and diverse application scenarios, which enhance model optimization and motion control [20] - The company has established partnerships with major players like Foxconn to explore possibilities in unmanned factory construction [17] Product Innovations - The Walker One and Walker Two humanoid robots feature advanced specifications, including multiple degrees of freedom and integrated sensory systems, demonstrating UBTECH's technological prowess [16] - The company is leveraging large models for task planning and execution, enhancing the robots' capabilities in various applications [14] Future Directions - UBTECH plans to accelerate the deployment of more application scenarios based on its core technology advantages, aiming for higher efficiency and success rates in production line integration [22] - The company has signed an order for 500 ultra-simulated robots and aims to sell 10,000 units, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its market presence [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.305 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, significantly higher than the 4.7% growth rate in 2023, driven by substantial growth in consumer and customized industrial robots [1]. - The gross profit for 2024 was 374 million yuan, with a gross margin of 28.7%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in revenue structure towards lower-margin consumer robots [1]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for 2024 narrowed to 1.16 billion yuan, an improvement of 8.3% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Custom Robots - Customized industrial robots saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.1%. Collaborations with major companies like Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor and Geely have been established [2]. Consumer Robots - Revenue from consumer robots and smart hardware reached 477 million yuan, growing 88.1% year-on-year, with successful overseas sales of new products like smart litter boxes and pool cleaning robots [2]. AI Education - The AI education segment generated 363 million yuan in revenue, a 4.6% year-on-year increase, leveraging a dual-engine model of "Xingzhi PaaS platform + smart hardware" to cover extensive domestic and international markets [2]. Smart Logistics - Revenue from smart logistics declined by 17.5% to 322 million yuan, attributed to longer project revenue recognition cycles and delays in the delivery and acceptance of major projects until 2025 [2]. R&D Investment - The company invested 478 million yuan in R&D in 2024, focusing on breakthroughs in embodied intelligence technologies, including the development of the Walker S2 humanoid robot [3]. Commercialization Progress - The company has a robust order reserve, with plans to launch new products like Walker S2 and Walker S3, aiming for small-scale production delivery of 100 units by 2025 [4]. - In the consumer smart hardware sector, the company plans to expand its product line to meet the growing demand in the European and American markets [4]. Overall Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a unique player in the humanoid robot sector, driven by a comprehensive technology and application strategy, entering a phase of accelerated commercialization [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.305 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, with a narrowing net loss of 1.123 billion yuan [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is reported at 28.7%, a decrease of 2.88 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix [3] - Accounts receivable and inventory increased by 9.57% and 10.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a healthy order backlog with contract liabilities rising by 4.21% [4] - The company is focusing on developing humanoid robot applications and has made significant progress in technology transfer and product implementation [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 2.016 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 54.4% [1][10] - The net profit is expected to improve, with a forecasted loss of 1.025 billion yuan in 2025, narrowing further in subsequent years [1][10] Business Segmentation - Revenue from educational intelligent robots and solutions is expected to reach 363 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2] - Revenue from logistics intelligent robots is projected to decline by 17.5% to 322 million yuan, while customized intelligent robots are expected to see a significant increase of 126.1% to 141 million yuan [2] Geographic Performance - Revenue from mainland China is expected to be 877 million yuan, growing by 6.36%, while revenue from Hong Kong and overseas is projected to reach 428 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 85.49% [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for UBTECH Robotics Company Overview - **Company**: UBTECH Robotics - **Industry**: Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: In 2024, UBTECH's total revenue reached 1.305 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, significantly higher than the 4.7% growth rate in 2023 [3] - **Gross Profit**: Gross profit was 374 million CNY, up 12.4% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in gross margin from 31.5% to 28.7% due to a structural change in revenue [3] - **Net Loss**: The net loss narrowed from 1.26 billion CNY in the previous year to 1.16 billion CNY [3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Net cash outflow from operating activities decreased to 874 million CNY [3] Business Segment Performance - **AI Education Segment**: Grew by 4.6% to 363 million CNY, with some revenue recognition delays [4] - **Logistics Robots**: Revenue decreased by 17.5% to 321 million CNY due to long project cycles [4] - **Consumer Robots**: Revenue surged by 88.1% to 477 million CNY, driven by products like pet grooming devices and smart litter boxes [4] - **Industry Custom Robots**: Revenue increased by 126.1% to 140 million CNY, with humanoid robot sales reaching 35 million CNY [4] R&D and Asset Developments - **R&D Investment**: R&D expenses (excluding stock compensation) increased by 36 million CNY, focusing on humanoid robot development [5] - **Total Assets**: As of the end of 2024, total assets were 5.133 billion CNY, an increase of 360 million CNY [5] - **Cash Reserves**: Cash balance was 1.223 billion CNY, up 682 million CNY year-on-year [5] Capital Market Performance - **Market Recognition**: UBTECH was included in over 100 indices, including the Hang Seng Composite Index and MSCI Small Cap Index [6] - **Stock Performance**: The stock price rebounded post-lockup, with trading volume exceeding 70 billion HKD in three months [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Connect**: The proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect increased from 4.59% to 21.56% [6] Future Development Plans - **R&D Focus**: Plans to increase R&D investment in humanoid robots and enhance stock buyback efforts to attract talent [7] - **AI + Education**: Continued focus on AI in education and the launch of new consumer products like smart lawn mowers [12][13] - **Humanoid Robots**: Aiming for breakthroughs in mass production and delivery of humanoid robots by 2025 [12][14] Technological Advancements - **Core Technologies**: Significant progress in accident-driven technology, large model technology, and multi-modal interaction capabilities [10] - **Industrial Applications**: Collaborations with leading automotive manufacturers to create humanoid robot demonstration factories [11] - **New Product Launches**: Introduction of the S2 humanoid robot with advanced features and capabilities [18] Challenges and Market Outlook - **Complexity of Humanoid Robots**: High complexity in technology integration and the need for autonomous operation with minimal human intervention [16] - **Market Potential**: The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with plans for large-scale deployment and production [17] Conclusion UBTECH Robotics is positioned for growth in the robotics and AI sectors, with a strong focus on R&D, market expansion, and technological innovation. The company aims to leverage its advancements in humanoid robotics to capture market share and enhance operational efficiency across various industries.

Financial Performance - Revenue increased from RMB 1,055.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to RMB 1,305.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing a growth of approximately 23.6%[4] - Gross profit rose from RMB 332.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to RMB 374.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, indicating an increase of about 12.4%[4] - Loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 1,159.9 million, a reduction from a loss of RMB 1,264.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, reflecting an improvement of approximately 8.3%[4] - The company's revenue for 2024 is RMB 1,305.4 million, an increase of 23.7% compared to RMB 1,055.7 million in 2023[38] - Revenue from logistics intelligent robots and solutions decreased by 17.5% from RMB 389.7 million in 2023 to RMB 321.7 million in 2024[41] - Revenue from other customized intelligent robots and solutions surged by 126.1% from RMB 62.2 million in 2023 to RMB 140.7 million in 2024[41] - Revenue from consumer-grade robots and other hardware increased by 88.1% from RMB 253.6 million in 2023 to RMB 477.0 million in 2024[41] - The net loss for 2024 was RMB 1,159.9 million, compared to RMB 1,264.6 million in 2023[50] - The adjusted net loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, is RMB 914.6 million, compared to RMB 817.0 million for 2023, indicating an increase in losses[54] - The adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, is RMB (608.5) million, compared to RMB (515.5) million for 2023, reflecting a worsening financial performance[54] Research and Development - The company continues to focus on R&D investments in humanoid robots, aiming to address real industrial application needs with innovative solutions[5] - The company has established a dual-engine technology framework combining "Xingzhi PaaS platform + intelligent hardware platform," achieving breakthroughs in multi-modal navigation, intelligent control, and modular design[15] - The company is actively developing an end-to-end model for practical applications in unmanned logistics vehicles, enhancing safety and efficiency in dynamic environments[10] - The company has made significant advancements in Vslam algorithm stability, improving the positioning and navigation performance of the Walker S1 in complex environments[9] - The humanoid robot's multimodal reasoning large model will be trained using high-quality industrial datasets, significantly improving decision-making capabilities in various job roles[34] - The company plans to develop end-to-end motion control technology to improve the operational efficiency of the Walker series, addressing complex tasks such as assembly and collaboration[36] Product Development and Innovation - The company launched the second generation industrial humanoid robot Walker S1, completing technical verification of linear joints and introducing a third generation flexible hand with pressure sensing capabilities[6] - The introduction of the BrainNet architecture enhances collaborative scenarios for humanoid robots, enabling advanced decision-making and real-time physical realization[8] - The company achieved breakthroughs in robot technology, including autonomous material handling, quality inspection, and parts assembly in industrial settings[7] - In 2024, the logistics intelligent robot and solution segment achieved breakthroughs in technology development and application, with the newly launched F3000 forklift capable of carrying up to 3.5 tons and the T8000 tug robot with an 8000 kg load capacity[20] - The company launched a series of new consumer products, including the C20 smart cat litter box and the M10 boundaryless intelligent lawn mower, while establishing distribution channels in markets such as the US, Canada, and Europe[25] Market Expansion and Partnerships - The company has established a humanoid robot application ecosystem in collaboration with 3C enterprises and showcased its humanoid robot industrial scene solution at the 2024 World Robot Conference[6] - The company has expanded its overseas business to over 20 countries, generating more than 700 digital marketing conversion opportunities and surpassing 80,000 users on its official website[17] - The company has established strategic partnerships to co-develop intelligent control systems for vehicles and humanoid robots, aiming to create a collaborative ecosystem[20] - The company is focusing on developing solutions for elderly care management, integrating AI and robotics technologies to enhance service delivery in various care settings[23] Awards and Recognition - The company has been recognized with multiple awards, including being listed in Fortune's first "China Technology 50" and receiving the "Golden Spectrum Award" at the China Brand Festival[13][14] - The company has been awarded multiple international design awards for its products, including the iF Design Award and the Red Dot Design Award[14] Financial Position and Capital Management - The total salary cost for 2024 was RMB 940.7 million, a decrease from RMB 1,006.8 million in 2023, primarily due to reduced equity incentive expenses[27] - As of December 31, 2024, the group's total interest-bearing bank and other borrowings increased to RMB 1,537.6 million as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 1,453.5 million as of December 31, 2023, primarily for operational needs[57] - The leverage ratio as of December 31, 2024, is 71.6%, down from 73.3% as of December 31, 2023, indicating improved equity position[56] - The current ratio as of December 31, 2024, is 1.4 times, compared to 1.5 times as of December 31, 2023, showing a slight decrease in liquidity[56] - The group has pledged 100% equity of its subsidiary Shenzhen Youbixuan Technology Co., Ltd. as collateral for bank loans, primarily for property and equipment construction[58] Shareholder and Governance Matters - The board of directors does not recommend the distribution of dividends for the fiscal year 2024[88] - The company has complied with all applicable corporate governance codes as of December 31, 2024, except for a deviation regarding the separation of roles between the chairman and CEO[89][90] - The company has not identified any violations of the standard code by employees as of December 31, 2024[93] Legal and Compliance - The legal lawsuit regarding patent infringement was resolved with the Shanghai Intellectual Property Court allowing the withdrawal of the lawsuit, which will not have a significant impact on the company's business or financial performance[96][97] - The audit committee has reviewed the consolidated annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, confirming compliance with applicable accounting standards and regulations[110] - The company’s financial statements for the year have been approved by the auditors, ensuring consistency with the audited consolidated financial reports[111]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Viewpoints - The company, UBTECH, is a leading player in the domestic intelligent service robot sector, focusing on humanoid robots with a stable revenue growth from 2020 to 2023, although it has not yet achieved profitability due to high expense ratios [3][6] - The humanoid robot market presents vast opportunities, with diverse industrial and consumer applications, supported by favorable domestic policies and advancements in technology [3][7] - UBTECH has launched a full-size humanoid robot and is actively exploring various application scenarios, positioning itself to benefit from the ongoing industrialization of humanoid robots [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - UBTECH is a leading company in the robot body field, recognized for its comprehensive technical capabilities in humanoid robots, including hardware and control technologies, AI integration, and a robust research and development framework [15][17] - The company has accumulated 2,450 patents related to robotics and AI, with a focus on industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and home companionship [15] Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 740 million to 1.056 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.55%. In the first half of 2024, revenue reached 487 million, a year-on-year increase of 86.58% [6][20] - The company has maintained high expense ratios due to significant R&D investments, resulting in a net loss of 516 million in the first half of 2024, although profitability is expected to improve [20][24] Product Development - The product mix has improved, with significant growth in consumer-grade robots and logistics robots, contributing to revenue growth. In 2023, logistics robots generated 390 million, accounting for 36.9% of revenue, while consumer-grade robots contributed 254 million, representing 24.0% [20][23] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings, with a focus on improving the profitability of consumer-grade and educational robots [24] Market Trends - The global humanoid robot market is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements expected by 2025, when mass production is anticipated. The market is characterized by increasing industrial and consumer applications [7][30] - Domestic policies are actively promoting the development of humanoid robots, with various innovation centers established across China to support research and application [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of humanoid robots and an increase in the penetration rate of its core product service robots [6] - The report highlights the successful demonstration of humanoid robots in a collaborative training scenario at the Zeekr 5G smart factory, marking a significant milestone in the application of humanoid robots [2] - The ability of humanoid robots to perform collaborative tasks in industrial settings is identified as a key factor for their large-scale application [3] - The company has introduced a "BrainNet" software architecture to enhance collaborative operations among humanoid robots, which includes a multi-modal reasoning model and cross-domain perception technology [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 1,677 million in 2024, 2,362 million in 2025, and 3,214 million in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 58.82%, 40.87%, and 36.06% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 929.45 million in 2024 to a loss of 275.13 million in 2026, indicating a significant reduction in losses [6] - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast, indicating a P/E of 47.63 in 2024, 61.49 in 2025, and 160.90 in 2026 [6] Operational Highlights - The company has successfully implemented collaborative sorting, handling, and precision assembly tasks using its humanoid robots [5] - The collaborative sorting utilizes pure visual perception technology and intelligent mixed decision-making to track and make decisions on dynamic targets [5] - The collaborative handling system employs multi-machine collaborative control technology to ensure dynamic adjustments during the handling process [5]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of humanoid robots and an increase in the penetration rate of its core service robots [6] - The report highlights the importance of collective intelligence in the large-scale application of humanoid robots in industrial scenarios, emphasizing the need for collaborative capabilities to maximize work efficiency [3] - The introduction of the BrainNet software architecture and the Internet of Humanoids (IoH) is seen as a significant innovation that supports the development of collective intelligence in humanoid robots [4] Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 16.77 billion, 23.62 billion, and 32.14 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 58.82%, 40.87%, and 36.06% [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in net profit, with projections of -929.45 million, -719.87 million, and -275.13 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a significant reduction in losses [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.10 yuan in 2024 to -0.62 yuan in 2026 [6] Technological Advancements - The company has developed a collective brain network that enables efficient collaborative operations among humanoid robots, facilitating tasks such as sorting, transporting, and precise assembly [5] - The use of advanced technologies, including multi-modal embodied reasoning models and cross-domain perception techniques, is highlighted as a key factor in enhancing the operational capabilities of humanoid robots [4][5]