绿城管理控股 （09979.HK） 2025 年 03 月 31 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 2.880 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 7.980/2.570 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 57.89 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 57.89 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.10 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 20.10 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 24.56 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 绿城管理控股 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《行业竞争加剧，新拓订单增速放缓 —港股公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.27 房地产/房地产服务 收入增长利润下降，新拓市占率提升 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | ...

房地产 2025 年 03 月 31 日 绿城管理控股(9979.HK) 公 司 报 告 规模领先，竞争加剧 推荐（维持） 股价：2.88 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.lcgljt.com | | 大股东/持股 | 绿城中国/71.28% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2010 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2010 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 57.9 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 1.90 | | 资产负债率(%) | 41.84 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*半年报点评* 业绩增速放缓，保持行业领先地位*推荐20240826 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*年报点评*高 成长与高股息兼具，配置性价比凸显*推荐20240322 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 ...

3月31日，绿城管理控股举行业绩发布会，董事会联席主席兼非执行董事郭佳峰，执行董事、行政总裁 王俊峰，执行董事聂焕新，副总裁程敏等管理层出席业绩会。 公司全年累计交付118个项目，共8.02万户，交付面积同比增加3%。全年交付面积合计1656万方，占代 建行业Top10总量的52%，交付满意度全面领跑行业，其中B端的交付满意度95%，C端交付满意度 89%，产品能力是公司穿越周期的重要法宝。 公司践行绿城好房子标准，持续创新迭代产品系，优化供应链，实现降本增效，强化经营管理，落实全 周期的提速，品质标杆，经营标杆项目不断涌现，赢得行业和委托方的广泛认可。 2024年，针对纾困项目的不同特点，绿城管理控股通过历史遗留问题的解决，管理标准的输出，进度品 质把控等，在浙江、广东、江苏、贵州等省份实现多个纾困项目的盛大交付，赢得了业主和社会各界的 认可。 面对当前代建市场低价竞争问题，程敏表示，绿城管理在商业代建方面，总体费率保持稳定。与上一年 相比虽然有所下降，但还是远高于行业的中位数。主要通过三点实现，第一，加大拓展的覆盖面，强化 项目的筛选，做到优中选优；第二，采取更加灵活的商务模式，优化了报价策略；第三，通过 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 3.441 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Gross profit was 1.706 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million RMB, resulting in a basic earnings per share of 0.41 RMB [1] - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.24 RMB per share [1] Group 2 - The company maintained its position as the leading player in the real estate agency service sector, achieving a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The company received multiple accolades, including "Top 1 in China's Real Estate Agency Operations for 2024" and "Top 1 in Comprehensive Strength of Real Estate Agency Enterprises" [1] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had established agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China, with a total contracted project area of 126 million square meters, a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects in major economic regions reached 720.1 billion RMB, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] - The building area in first and second-tier cities reached 55.3 million square meters, representing 44.0% of the total building area, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved the largest new project scale in the industry, with a total contracted area of new projects reaching 36.5 million square meters, a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.4% [2] Group 4 - The estimated agency fee for new projects was 9.32 billion RMB, a decrease of approximately 10.1% compared to the previous year, but the overall order quality improved [2] - The price of new projects stabilized from 240 RMB per square meter in the first half of 2024 to 255 RMB per square meter for the entire year [2] - The proportion of projects in first and second-tier cities increased to 58%, up 6 percentage points from the previous year [2]

Financial Performance - The total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 3,441,234, representing a growth of 4.2% compared to RMB 3,302,422 in 2023[5] - The net profit attributable to the owners of the company decreased by 17.7% to RMB 801,134 from RMB 973,607 in the previous year[5] - The basic earnings per share for the year was RMB 0.41, down 18.0% from RMB 0.50 in 2023[5] - The total profit for the year was RMB 790,529 thousand in 2024, down from RMB 980,697 thousand in 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 19.4%[23][24] - The company's income tax expense for 2024 totaled RMB 246,520,000, an increase of 25.3% from RMB 196,711,000 in 2023[30] - The pre-tax profit for 2024 was RMB 1,037,049,000, down 11.9% from RMB 1,177,408,000 in 2023[32] - The gross profit margin for the period was 49.6%, down from 52.2% in the previous year, reflecting a decline of 2.6 percentage points[47] - Net profit for the period was RMB 790.5 million, down 19.4% from RMB 980.7 million in 2023, with profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 801.1 million, a decrease of 17.7% from RMB 973.6 million in 2023[68] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from commercial construction services was RMB 2,752,490 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 2,346,326 thousand in 2023, indicating a significant increase of about 17.3%[18] - Revenue from government construction services decreased to RMB 625,846 thousand in 2024 from RMB 788,480 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 20.6%[18] - The company's revenue for 2024 was RMB 3,441.2 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% compared to RMB 3,302.4 million in 2023, with commercial agency contributing 80% of total revenue[59] - Commercial construction remains the largest revenue and profit source, generating RMB 2,752.5 million, accounting for 80.0% of total revenue, up 17.3% from RMB 2,346.3 million in 2023[61] Assets and Liabilities - The total non-current assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 2,071,701, down from RMB 2,292,582 in 2023[8] - The total current assets increased to RMB 4,705,067 from RMB 4,440,069 in the previous year[8] - The total liabilities increased to RMB 2,793,699 from RMB 2,420,287 in 2023[8] - The company's equity attributable to owners decreased to RMB 3,810,170 from RMB 3,995,747 in the previous year[9] - The total equity as of December 31, 2024, was approximately RMB 3,941.6 million, down from RMB 4,133.6 million at the beginning of the year[72] Expenses - The administrative expenses decreased by 6.5% to RMB 481,081 from RMB 514,505 in the previous year[5] - The total administrative expenses for the year were RMB 14,668 thousand, which included research and development costs of RMB 23,591 thousand, down from RMB 31,785 thousand in 2023[29] - Other income decreased by 28.4% to RMB 111.6 million from RMB 155.8 million in 2023, primarily due to reduced equity investment dividends[63] - Service costs for the period reached RMB 1,735.7 million, an increase of 9.8% compared to RMB 1,580.1 million in 2023[60] Dividends - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.24 per share, totaling RMB 482.4 million, subject to shareholder approval[4] - The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.40 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaling RMB 1,005,000,000, compared to RMB 766,361,000 in 2022[33] Operational Highlights - The total contracted project construction area increased by 5.0% to 125.6 million square meters from 119.6 million square meters in 2023[5] - The company maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, reaffirming its leadership in the construction management industry[46] - The company achieved a delivery satisfaction rate of 95% for B-end clients and 89% for C-end clients, leading the industry in both delivery volume and customer satisfaction[53] - The area under construction increased to 53.96 million square meters, a growth of 2.9% year-on-year, with major economic regions maintaining a significant proportion of the total[51] Employee and Corporate Governance - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 2,377 employees, an increase of 15.61% from December 31, 2023, with male and female employees accounting for 76.82% and 23.18% respectively[83] - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Rules, ensuring compliance with all applicable provisions during the year ending December 31, 2024[85] Market Conditions - The construction management industry is experiencing a slowdown, with new construction area declining by 5% year-on-year, but contract signing volumes are expected to recover in the fourth quarter of 2024[48] - The proportion of new projects in first- and second-tier cities increased to 58%, up 6 percentage points from the previous year[52] Financial Reporting and Compliance - The group has not adopted any new international financial reporting standards that have been issued but are not yet effective, planning to apply them when they come into force[17] - The application of the revised International Financial Reporting Standards did not have a significant impact on the group's financial position or performance for the current and prior years[14][15][16] - The financial information disclosed does not constitute audited accounts but represents an extract of the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, audited by Ernst & Young[90]

Core Viewpoint - The construction industry in 2024 is experiencing a slowdown in growth, transitioning into a phase where leading companies maintain stability while others face increasing differentiation [1] Group 1: Rankings Release - The top 30 construction companies in 2024 achieved a total contract area of 914 million square meters, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [8] - The top 30 companies in terms of comprehensive strength signed an additional area of 19.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [10][11] Group 2: Rankings Interpretation - The leading construction companies exhibit stable performance, with the top 10 companies showing a total change rate of only 10%, indicating a relatively stable market structure [5] - Green City Management, Blue City Group, and Jindi Management are the top three companies in comprehensive capability, with Green City Management maintaining a market share of over 20% since 2016 [5][6] - New entrants are rapidly expanding, leveraging unique competitive advantages to become significant players in the construction sector, with companies like Xuhui Construction Management and Longhu Longzhizao making notable progress [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Private construction companies dominate the market, accounting for 63% of the top 30 companies, while state-owned and mixed-ownership enterprises make up 17% and 20%, respectively [7] - The top five companies hold a significant market concentration, with their total contract area accounting for 46% of the overall market [11] Group 4: Industry Trends - The construction industry is facing intensified competition, prompting companies to adapt by transitioning to "light asset" models and seeking growth in niche markets [12] - Many leading companies have implemented partner programs to enhance resource integration and project execution [12] - Diversification in construction services is becoming a key development direction, with companies expanding beyond traditional residential construction into various sectors [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.6x, 4.3x, and 3.5x for the years 2024-2026 [2] Core Insights - The company has achieved a new contract building area of 36.49 million square meters in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. However, the estimated construction fees for new projects have decreased by 10.1% to RMB 9.32 billion due to the impact of the real estate market [1] - The company continues to lead the industry with a market share exceeding 20% for eight consecutive years, ranking first in new contract signing among construction companies according to Yihan Research [1] - The company has a substantial business reserve with a contract sales amount of RMB 105 billion and a total construction area of 125 million square meters, providing potential growth momentum [1] - The management team has shown confidence in the company's long-term value by collectively purchasing 15.45 million shares during a specified period [2] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 3.65 billion, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.046 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.44% [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 24.37% in 2024 to 35.03% in 2026, indicating improving profitability [4] - The PE ratio is expected to decline significantly from 5.58 in 2024 to 3.46 in 2026, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.36 as of October 15, 2024 [5][6] Core Views - The company remains the industry leader in the property management sector, maintaining a 23.8% market share in new contract signings for H1 2024 [6] - Despite industry-wide challenges, the company's profitability continues to improve, with a projected 5.3% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6][7] - The company's dividend payout exceeded expectations, contributing to its attractiveness as an investment [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 3,302 million, with a projected increase to RMB 4,491 million by 2026, representing a CAGR of 10.8% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 30.8% YoY in 2023, reaching RMB 974 million, and is expected to reach RMB 1,350 million by 2026 [6] - The company's ROE remains strong at 29.5% for 2023, with a slight increase to 30.1% projected for 2026 [6] Market Position and Industry Trends - The company secured new contract signings of 17.46 million square meters in H1 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry [6] - The property management industry is facing headwinds, with new project fees declining by 16.4% YoY as of September 30, 2024, due to reduced land acquisitions by potential clients [7] - The company's contracted area reached 122.8 million square meters as of June 30, 2024, with a corresponding salable value of RMB 892 billion [7] Operational Metrics - The company's gross margin stood at 52.2% in 2023, with a slight decline to 51.2% projected for 2026 [6] - Government-related projects saw a significant decline in gross margin, dropping by 4.4 percentage points to 40.4% in H1 2024 [7] - Operating cash flow decreased by 87% YoY to RMB 77.5 million in H1 2024, primarily due to delayed fee collections and slower project initiation [7] Valuation - The company's PE ratio is projected at 6.0x for 2024, 5.1x for 2025, and 4.6x for 2026, based on the closing price of HKD 3.36 as of October 15, 2024 [6] - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.6x in 2024 to 1.4x by 2026, reflecting the company's strong asset base and growth potential [11]

Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 1,669.6 million, an increase of 7.8% compared to RMB 1,549.0 million in the same period last year[19]. - Gross profit for the period was RMB 860.1 million, up 6.7% from RMB 806.2 million year-on-year, with a gross margin of 51.5%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year's 52.0%[21]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 501.2 million, reflecting a 5.8% increase from RMB 473.6 million in the prior year[21]. - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 1,669.6 million for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% compared to RMB 1,549.0 million in the same period of 2023[37]. - The commercial construction segment remains the largest revenue source, generating RMB 1,308.3 million, which accounts for 78.3% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 22.9% year-on-year[37]. - The net profit for the period was RMB 491.2 million, an increase of 6.3% from RMB 462.1 million in the same period of 2023, with profit attributable to shareholders rising 5.8% to RMB 501.2 million[47]. - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 497,414 thousand, up from RMB 457,218 thousand, reflecting a growth of 8.8% year-over-year[105]. - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 0.26 from RMB 0.24, representing an 8.3% rise[105]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of RMB 77.5 million, with no bank debt[21]. - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly to RMB 77,486,000 in 2024 from RMB 593,045,000 in 2023, a decline of about 87%[114]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were RMB 2,152,065,000, down from RMB 2,533,742,000 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 15%[116]. - The net current asset position decreased to RMB 1,443,624 thousand from RMB 2,019,782 thousand, a decline of 28.5%[108]. - Total equity as of June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 3,647.2 million, a decrease of about RMB 486.4 million from RMB 4,133.6 million at the end of 2023[53]. - The company had no significant borrowings during the reporting period, indicating a stable financial position[55]. Operational Highlights - The company has established a presence in 128 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China[7]. - The overall new construction area in the construction agency industry has shown slow growth compared to the same period last year, with significant opportunities arising from government and state-owned enterprises[22]. - The company aims to enhance its core capabilities and expand its construction agency services through a diversified customer structure and national business layout[19]. - The construction agency model is increasingly recognized as a mature procurement model by government entities, facilitating the construction of various types of affordable housing[22]. - The company is positioned to leverage structural opportunities in the market, particularly in government services and state-owned enterprise collaborations[22]. - The company continues to focus on creating value for clients through customized solutions and high-quality services, adhering to its core values of quality, trust, efficiency, and sharing[6]. Shareholder and Governance Information - As of June 30, 2024, the major shareholder, Greentown China, holds a beneficial interest of 1,432,660,000 shares, representing 71.28% of the company's total issued share capital[82]. - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the listing rules and has complied with all applicable provisions for the six months ending June 30, 2024[72]. - The board and management are committed to maintaining high standards of corporate governance to protect shareholder interests and enhance corporate value[71]. - The company has confirmed that all directors have strictly adhered to the standard code of conduct regarding securities trading during the reporting period[70]. Related Party Transactions - Total transactions with related parties amounted to RMB 156,395 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, an increase of 31.6% compared to RMB 118,810 thousand in the same period of 2023[171]. - Revenue from construction management services provided to Zhejiang Green City Times Construction Management Co., Ltd. reached RMB 113,894 thousand, significantly up from RMB 10,055 thousand year-on-year[169]. - The group reported a decrease in accumulated impairment losses on receivables, amounting to RMB 2,987,000 as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 2,996,000 as of December 31, 2023[190]. - The total amount of receivables from related parties is expected to be collected within 12 months, with no interest charged on certain non-transaction-related receivables[189].

业绩持续增长，项目稳步拓展 市场价格：3.40 港元 [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 分析师：由子沛 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：侯希得 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 Email：liyao01@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------| | | | | 基本状况 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 2,010 | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | 2,010 | | 市价 ( 港元 ) | 3.40 | | 市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 6,834 | | 流通市值 ( 百万港元 ) | 6,834 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2023-092023-092023-102023-112023-112023- ...