Core Insights - Greentown Management Holdings Limited, known as the "first stock in construction agency," reported a revenue of 3.441 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The company's gross profit was 1.706 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.0% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Business Performance - As of the end of 2024, Greentown Management has established construction agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China [2] - The total contracted project area reached 12.56 million square meters, an increase of 5.0% from the previous year [2] - The area under construction was 53.96 million square meters, up 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects was 720.1 billion yuan, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Commercial construction agency services were the largest source of revenue and profit for Greentown Management, generating 2.753 billion yuan, a rise of 17.3% year-on-year, and accounting for 80% of total revenue [2] - Government construction agency revenue reached 626 million yuan, making up 18.2% of total revenue [2] New Project Development - In 2024, Greentown Management expanded its new project contracted area to 36.5 million square meters, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.4% compared to 2023 [3] - The estimated construction fees for new projects were 9.32 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The company noted that despite a 5% decline in new contract area across the construction agency industry, it managed to maintain positive growth [3]

民企开始回归佛山主场！ 近三年拿地占比提高10%，超9大项目启动代建服务……这一系列动作，代表着民企逐渐恢复信心。 那么，2025年佛山楼市会迎来怎样的变化？今天我们就来探讨一下~ 民企拿地占比提高10% 打响佛山土拍新信号 从最近的土拍情况就能看出，今年民营房企返场又将成为趋势。 就在昨天（4月10日），顺德本土房企东域发展拿下勒流东拓片区商住地。（详情回顾） 这也是其继2024年12月竞得东锦汇地块后，再度布局勒流东拓片区。 据东域产业园官微显示，未来这两宗地块将联动开发，拟打造勒流首个新规项目。 在楼市深度调整期，地方城投或国央企拿地成为主流，但这两年民企返场拿地的势头也在上升。 楼市君统计，2022-2024年期间，民营房企拿地宗数在全市的占比提高了10%。 不止本土民企拿地积极性高，产品也在紧跟潮流趋势，为佛山人居产品迭新贡献力量。 如去年龙湖地产拿下龙湖佛山御湖境，是祖庙板块首个新规产品，使用率超100%，为片区改善提供选择。 宏宇地产2024年拿下的城市广场地块——瓏熙，已于今年4月亮相，是佛山首个入市的超新规项目。 阳台率高达130%，户户带南北对流双阳台和多套房设计，对比以往产品直接刺激了市 ...

绿城管理在新拓项目、总订单储备、交付规模、代建收入等指标中始终保持行业龙头地位。布局加速向高能级城市倾斜、订单结构优化进一步提升企业抗 风险能力。 竞争加剧下，企业净利润、利润率有所下滑，盈利难度攀升。下半年绿城管理采取一系列改革和能力提升，部分经营指标有了明显止跌回稳趋势。 ◎ 作者 / 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 核 心 观 点 【 规模稳中有进稳固龙头地位，结构升维驱动市占率扩张】 代建行业整体规模增速放缓、竞争加剧的背景下，绿城管理新拓规模仍稳中有进，维持行业领 先地位。2024年新拓代建项目总面积3649万平方米，同比微涨3.4%，新拓项目代建费用（估算）为93.05亿元，同比下降10.3%；顺应市场周期变化， 2024年绿城管理新拓结构较2023年发生了明显的变化，私营企业首次超过政府和国企，成为了第一大委托方。 【 订单底仓充实保障未来业绩增长，项目运营与交付效率双提升】 绿城管理2024年末在建面积53.96百万平方米，同比增加3%；可售货值9321亿元，订 单底仓充实；一二线城市占总建筑面积的44.0%，四大核心城市圈占比76.6%，抗风险能力进一步提升；商业代建建筑面积9570万平方米，占比达 76. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].

2024 年公司营收同比+4.2%，归母净利润同比-17.7%。2024 年公司实现 营收 34.4 亿元（+4.2%，同比变化，下同），其中商业代建收入 27.5 亿元 （+17.3%），政府代建收入 6.26 亿元（-20.6%）。公司 2024 年实现归母净利 润 8.01 亿元（-17.7%）。主要由于代建行业竞争加剧，代建费率下行，期内公 司商业代建毛利率为 51.2%（-1.1pct），政府代建毛利率为 40.1%（-5.1pct）， 拖累公司整体毛利率至 49.6%（-2.6pct）。同时，因房地产行业持续调整，公 司委托方销售受到影响，进而影响项目建设速度与公司账款回收的情况，公司 期末合同资产为 13.4 亿元（+51.0%），贸易及其他应收款为 11.2 亿元 （+35.9%）。 公司新拓金额、单价出现一定下滑，区域结构、委托方结构有所优化。2024 年公司新拓代建合约面积 3650 万方（+3.4%），新拓代建项目代建费 93.2 亿 元（-10.1%），新拓单价 255 元/平方米（-13.1%）。虽然新拓金额、单价下 滑，但公司 2024 年新签市占率 22.1%，继续保持代建市场龙 ...

1、一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 | ◎ 克而瑞研究中心 | | --- | | PART1 榜单发布 | 新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 0 2 2、新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 3、超过半数企业新拓面积同比增长，呈现"头部稳健、腰部发力"格局 4、品牌传播力保持强者恒强，AI、科技赋能代建业务成各家企业突破口 一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 0 1 PART2 榜单解读 2025年一季度，代建新增规模TOP20企业新增签约建面4534万平方米，同比增加6%，较2024年全行业17% 的增速进一步放缓，竞争仍十分激烈，代建项目获取难度不断增加。 按一季度新增建面分布来看，绿城管理仍然以"断层"优势保持龙头地位，一季度新拓面积几乎是第二名2 倍。有3家企业新增建面超过300万平方米，分别是旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团，基本以政府代建项目 新拓为主，其中旭辉建管一季度政府代建比例达到56%，润地管理政府新签规模约301万平方米。另，有6 家房企新增建面位于200-300万区间，包括 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 优于大市 竞争加剧导致业绩承压 归母净利-18%，政府代建承压。2024 年公司实现营业收入 34 亿元，同比增 长 4%；实现归母净利润 8 亿元，同比下降 18%。公司增收不增利的原因主要 为毛利率下滑，以及计提信贷减值约 1 亿元。分类别看，公司商业代建收入 为 28 亿元，同比增长 17%,收入占比增长 9pct 至 80%；政府代建业务收入 6.3 亿元，同比下降21%。2024 年公司整体毛利率为49.6%，较上年末下降2.6pct， 其中商业代建毛利率为 51%，政府代建毛利率为 40%，分别较上年末下降 1、 5pct。 规模稳中有进，新拓结构优化。截至 2024 年末，公司业务分布已覆盖 130 个城市，合约总建筑面积达 1.3 亿平方米，同比增长 5%，当期在建面积 0.5 亿平放米，同比增长 3%，保持行业龙头地位。在全国化布局下，公司市占率 稳步扩大，2024 年新签代建规模 3649 万平方米，新签市占率 22.1%，较上 年提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The construction management industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the top 30 companies showing a total contracted area of 914 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23% [1][10] - The top 30 construction management companies added a new signed area of 19.3 million square meters, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has decreased by 20 percentage points compared to 2023 [12] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a stable performance among leading companies, with the top three being Greentown Management, Blue City Group, and Jindi Management [7][8] Summary by Sections Ranking Release - The report lists the top 30 construction management companies in China, highlighting their rankings and names [2][3] Ranking Interpretation - The top companies exhibit stable performance, with Greentown Management maintaining a market share of over 20% since 2016, while Blue City Group and Jindi Management also show strong competitive advantages [7] - New entrants in the market are rapidly expanding, with companies like Xuhui Construction Management and Longfor Longzhizao emerging as significant players [8][9] - Private enterprises dominate the top 30 list, accounting for 63%, while state-owned enterprises and mixed ownership companies make up 17% and 20%, respectively [9] Market Data - The total contracted area for the top 30 companies reached 914 million square meters, with nine companies experiencing over 50% growth in their contracted scale [10] - The concentration of new contracts remains high, with the top five companies accounting for 46% of the total contracted area and new contracts [12] Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing intensified competition, prompting companies to adopt strategic transformations and innovations to adapt to market changes [17] - Many companies are extending their service chains to offer comprehensive service models, while diversifying their business areas beyond traditional residential construction [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.7% to 800 million yuan [7] - The company has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, with a new project area of 36.49 million square meters in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7] - The company has adjusted its project structure in response to market conditions, increasing the proportion of private enterprise projects to 33% in new projects [7] - The company’s dividend payout ratio has been adjusted to 60%, with a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share for 2024 [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilizing real estate market, with projected net profits of 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.7 billion yuan in 2026 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 3.44 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.04 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.39% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 800 million yuan in 2024 to 932.8 million yuan in 2027 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 0.46 yuan in 2027 [8] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 6.87 in 2025 to 5.90 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.44 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.7% to 800 million yuan [7] - The company has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, with a new project area of 36.49 million square meters in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7] - The company has adjusted its project structure in response to market conditions, increasing the proportion of private enterprise projects in new projects to 33% [7] - The company’s dividend for 2024 is set at 0.24 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio adjusted to 60% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilizing real estate market, with projected net profits of 8.2 billion yuan and 8.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 3.44 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 5.65% in 2025 [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 801.13 million yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 822.77 million yuan in 2025 [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.40 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.46 yuan by 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 6.87 in 2024 to 5.90 in 2027 [8]