Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 6.44 and a target value of HKD 9.98 [2]. Core Views - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% for two consecutive years, reflecting strong dividend value [10]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 3.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and a net profit of HKD 970 million, up 30.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [10][24]. - The company’s overall gross profit margin was 52.2%, with a slight decrease of 0.1% from the end of 2022, while the gross profit for 2023 was HKD 1.72 billion, up 24.0% year-on-year [22][24]. Summary by Sections Dividend and Value - The company reported a total dividend of HKD 1.01 billion for 2023, with a payout ratio of 103.2%, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [10]. Order Expansion and Sales Performance - The company’s new signed construction fees exceeded HKD 10.37 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with a significant portion coming from state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2][10]. - The commercial construction revenue reached HKD 2.35 billion, a 40.5% increase year-on-year, while government construction revenue was HKD 790 million, showing a modest increase of 1% [13][18]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of HKD 1.22 billion and HKD 1.52 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a growth rate of 25% for both years [2][24]. - The report suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 15x for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 9.98, maintaining the "Buy" rating [2][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue reaching 3,302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The gross margin was 52.2%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 974 million yuan, reflecting a 30.8% year-on-year growth [7]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout due to ample cash flow, with a net cash inflow from operations of 955 million yuan in 2023, a 31.8% increase year-on-year. The total cash and cash equivalents stood at 2,044 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.4 yuan plus a special dividend of 0.1 yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.9% as of March 22 [7]. - The company anticipates steady growth in construction fees from new projects, with a total of 10.37 billion yuan in new project fees, a 20.5% increase year-on-year. State-owned enterprises are becoming the main clients, with a project reserve that includes approximately 52.5 million square meters under construction, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase [7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the construction agency industry, with sufficient project reserves and a focus on operational efficiency to ensure project conversion. Future net profits are projected to be 1,238 million yuan, 1,556 million yuan, and 1,897 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.2%, 25.7%, and 21.9% [7]. Financial Metrics Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 3,302 in 2023, projected to be 4,029 in 2024, 4,968 in 2025, and 5,977 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 22.0%, 23.3%, and 20.3% respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 974 in 2023, projected to be 1,238 in 2024, 1,556 in 2025, and 1,897 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.8%, 27.2%, 25.7%, and 21.9% respectively [5]. - Gross margin: 52.2% in 2023, projected to be 51.6% in 2024 and 2025, and 51.7% in 2026 [5].

hcraeseR 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Chunli Zhan 詹春立 ytiuqE Company Report: Greentown Management (09979 HK) 中文版 究 (852)2509 7745 公司报告： 绿城管理 (09979 HK) Chinese version james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk 25 March 2024 增[Ta长ble韧_Su性mm凸ar显y] ，高派息率，维持“买入”评级 tropeR 公  我们维持“买入”评级，并下调目标价至9.40港元。我们预计绿城管 [RTaabtilne_gR: ank] Buy 理2024-2026年每股盈利分别为人民币0.615元、人民币0.773元和 司 Maintained 人民币0.950元，对应2023-2026年的年复合增长率为24.1%。我们 ynapmoC 报 下调目标价至9.40港元，相当于14.0倍的2024年市盈率。我们维持 评级： 买入 (维持) 告 “买入”评级。  2023年业绩强劲，派息率达100%，令人惊喜。在房地产下行周期中， [6T-a1b8lem_ ...

h 股 c r a 票 e s e R 研 y [Table_Title] Chunli Zhan 詹春立 tiu Company Report: Greentown Management (09979 HK) 究 q (852)2509 7745 E 公司报告： 绿城管理 (09979 HK) james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk 25 March 2024 [Table_Summary] Undisturbed Growth and High Dividend Payout, Maintain "Buy" tr 公 o  We maintain "Buy" rating and trim TP to HK$9.40. We forecast p [RTaabtlien_gR:a nk] Buy 司 e R G RMre Ben 0t .o 7w 73n aM nda n Ra Mge Bm 0.e 9n 5t 0’s r2 e0 s2 p4 eF ct- i2 v0 e2 ly6 F hE icP hS ret po eb se ntR sM aB C0. A6 G15 R, Maintain ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 6.19, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.302 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 974 million, up 30.8% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the construction management industry, maintaining a market share of 20.4% [3]. - The management has set ambitious performance guidance for the next three years, aiming for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue and net profit [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 52.2%, consistent with the previous year, with specific margins for commercial management at 52.3%, government management at 45.2%, and other services at 82.2% [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached RMB 955 million, reflecting a 31.8% increase year-on-year, indicating strong earnings quality [2]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its project management footprint to 29 provinces and 122 cities, with a total contracted construction area of 120 million square meters, a 17.9% increase year-on-year [3]. - New project contracts in 2023 saw a total construction area of 35 million square meters, marking a 25.0% increase year-on-year, with a CAGR of 24.4% from 2021 to 2023 [3]. Organizational Changes - The company initiated organizational restructuring to enhance management efficiency, creating five new regional/city companies to improve service responsiveness [4]. - The introduction of the "Bai Chuan Plan" aims to attract city partners and high-quality projects through diversified cooperation models [4]. Future Outlook - The management has provided a positive outlook, projecting a net profit margin of over 25% and a dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% in the coming years [2][4]. - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects in major economic regions is RMB 693.3 billion, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [3].

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月25日 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 买入 业绩增长 31%，派息率 100% 核心观点 公司研究·海外公司财报点评 归母净利增长30.8%，派息率100%。2023年公司实现营业收入33.0亿元， 房地产·房地产服务 同比增长24.3%；实现归母净利润9.7亿元，同比增长30.8%，归母净利润 证券分析师：任鹤 证券分析师：王粤雷 增速高于收入增速的主要原因为高毛利的商业代建业务占比提升。分类别 010-88005315 0755-81981019 renhe@guosen.com.cn wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn 看，公司商业代建收入为23.5亿元，同比增长40.5%,收入占比增长8.1pct S0980520040006 S0980520030001 至71.0%；政府代建业务收入7.9亿元，同比增长1.0%；其他业务收入1.7 证券分析师：王静 亿元。2023公司整体毛利率为52.2%，较上年末基本持平，其中商业代建毛 021-60893314 wangjing20@guosen.com.cn 利率为52.3%，政府代建毛利率为45.2%，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in business scale, with 2023 revenue reaching 3.302 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and net profit of 970 million RMB, up 30.8% [2][3] - Greentown continues to lead the light-asset development sector in real estate, maintaining over 20% market share in the construction agency market for eight consecutive years [2] - The company has diversified its client base, with 74.7% of new construction agency projects coming from government and state-owned enterprises [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.302 billion RMB, with a gross profit of approximately 1.72 billion RMB, maintaining a gross margin of about 52.2% [2] - The cash flow from operating activities was 960 million RMB, reflecting a 31.8% increase year-on-year [2] Market Position - As of the end of 2023, Greentown's construction agency projects spanned 122 major cities across 29 provinces, with a total contracted area of 119 million square meters, a 17.9% increase from the previous year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects is approximately 693.3 billion RMB, with significant contributions from key economic regions [2] Client Diversification - The company has adapted its business structure to deepen opportunities with state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, resulting in a 25% year-on-year increase in new contracted area [2] - The breakdown of new projects shows that government projects account for 26.8%, state-owned enterprises for 34.2%, and private enterprises for 31.7% of the total contracted area [2] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.253 billion RMB, 1.546 billion RMB, and 1.874 billion RMB respectively, with EPS projected at 0.62, 0.77, and 0.93 RMB [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 24.3% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 3.302 billion RMB in 2023, with a 100% dividend payout [6][13]. - The company continues to hold the leading position in the real estate development service sector, maintaining over 20% market share for eight consecutive years [6][7]. - The company has optimized its client structure and expanded its business boundaries, with new project contracts covering a total building area of 35.3 million square meters, a 25% increase from the previous year [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of 1.722 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 974 million RMB in 2023, representing year-on-year increases of 24.0% and 30.8%, respectively [6][13]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin remained stable at 52.2%, consistent with the previous year [6][14]. - The company has no bank debt and reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 955 million RMB, indicating strong cash flow [6][7]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its project layout across 122 major cities in 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China, with a total contracted project area of 119.6 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [6][7]. - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects in 2023 reached 693.3 billion RMB, accounting for 77.7% of the overall saleable value [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to have an EPS of 0.60 RMB for 2024, with a valuation range of 185-212 billion HKD, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 9.23-10.55 HKD per share [7][15].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年03月25日 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 业绩高增全额派息，持续受益代建蓝海 事件：3月21日，公司发布2023年年报。 买入（维持） 2023 年营收同比+24.3%，归母净利润同比+30.8%，业绩高增符合预期。 股票信息 2023年公司实现营收33.0亿元，同比增长24.3%。其中商业代建收入23.5亿 元，同比增长40.5%；政府代建收入7.9亿元，同比增长0.9%；其他服务收入 行业 物业服务及管理 1.7亿元，同比减少18.3%。公司2023年实现归母净利润9.7亿元，同比增长 前次评级 买入 30.8%。业绩表现亮眼，主要得益于（1）代建逆周期优势凸显，利润率不惧行 3月22日收盘价(港元) 6.19 业波动始终维持高位，2023年公司整体毛利率52.2%；（2）在公司管理边界扩 总市值(百万港元) 12,441.90 大、复杂的市场环境下，成本管控进一步加强，销管费用率进一步下降至18.7%。 总股本(百万股) 2,010.00 公司继续保持代建市场龙头地位，规模持续增长且聚焦核心都市圈。2023年公 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 司新拓代 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Greentown Management with a target price of HK$ 9.37, reflecting a 13x 2024E PE [2][4]. Core Insights - Greentown Management achieved a net profit growth of +31% YoY in FY23, with a maintained dividend payout ratio of 100%, resulting in an 8% dividend yield [2][5]. - The company is expected to guide industry-leading growth with a revenue CAGR of +20% and net profit CAGR of +25% over the next three years, potentially outperforming the broader property market [2][8]. - The company's adaptability in business restructuring has been highlighted as a key factor in its strong performance despite a sluggish property market [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 results showed revenue of RMB 3,302 million, a 24.3% increase YoY, and attributable net profit of RMB 974 million, up 31% YoY [3][5]. - Gross profit margin remained stable at 52%, with a slight decrease in commercial project management (PJM) margin to 52% and an improvement in government PJM margin to 45% [5][12]. - The company reported a net margin of 29.5% in FY23, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous year [5][12]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 4,048 million in FY24, with a YoY growth of 22.6%, and net profit is expected to be RMB 1,250.9 million, reflecting a 28.5% increase [3][7]. - The company has a billable contract value of RMB 25 billion, with an expected annual increase of approximately RMB 10 billion [2][8]. - The forecast for net profit in FY26 is RMB 1,897.3 million, indicating a continued growth trajectory [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Greentown Management has expanded its business into non-residential projects, which accounted for 15% of new contracts in FY23, in response to a contracting residential market [2][8]. - The company has successfully maintained its market share in the property management sector, with newly contracted gross floor area (GFA) increasing to 35.3 million square meters in FY23 [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's asset-light model and high cash flow as significant advantages in the current market environment [2][8].