Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Pop Mart with a "Buy" rating, citing its strong IP operational capabilities and overseas expansion as key drivers for future growth [10] Core Views - Pop Mart is the leading player in China's trendy toy market, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [1] - The company's IP ecosystem, covering blind boxes, theme parks, and games, is expected to drive long-term growth [10] - Pop Mart's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12.687 billion in 2024E to RMB 20.430 billion in 2026E, with adjusted net profit increasing from RMB 2.935 billion to RMB 4.783 billion over the same period [10] Industry Overview - The global trendy toy retail market is expected to grow from USD 19.8 billion in 2019 to USD 41.8 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 16.1% [11] - China's trendy toy retail market is projected to expand from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 763 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 29.8% [1] - Pop Mart holds a 13.6% market share in China's trendy toy retail market, ranking first in 2021 [1] IP Operations - Pop Mart's IP ecosystem includes four major IPs (MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, DIMOO, THE MONSTERS), which accounted for 50% of total revenue in 2023, down from 58.1% in 2019 [1] - The company has diversified its product offerings, including MEGA high-end products, POP BEAN, and plush toys, to extend the lifecycle of its IPs [1] - Pop Mart's internal design team (PDC) has successfully launched new IPs such as Xiao Ye and Xiao Tian Dou, contributing to revenue growth [82] Domestic Market Performance - Pop Mart's domestic revenue grew from RMB 16.57 billion in 2019 to RMB 52.35 billion in 2023, with online and offline channels contributing 33% and 58% respectively in 2023 [1] - The company's retail store count increased from 114 in 2019 to 363 in 2023, with a potential ceiling of 434 stores in China [1] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue increased from 2% in 2019 to 17% in 2023, with 80 stores opened globally by the end of 2023 [1] - The company is rapidly expanding in markets like Thailand and the US, with 28 new stores added globally from January to July 2024 [1] - Overseas markets offer higher pricing and profitability compared to the domestic market, with online and offline channels contributing 15% and 60% respectively in 2023 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 12.687 billion in 2024E to RMB 20.430 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 34% from 2024E to 2025E and 20% from 2025E to 2026E [10] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.935 billion in 2024E to RMB 4.783 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 33% from 2024E to 2025E and 22% from 2025E to 2026E [10] Competitive Landscape - Pop Mart's market share in China's trendy toy retail market increased from 8.5% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021, solidifying its leading position [1] - The company faces competition from brands like TOP TOY, 52 toys, and Cool Play, but its full-chain coverage and strong IP ecosystem give it a competitive edge [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 6-month outlook [2] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue surged over 120% YoY, with overseas revenue growing 4x [2] - Domestic online and offline channels showed strong growth, with e-commerce platforms increasing 135%-140% YoY [2] - International expansion accelerated, with 22 new stores opened in Q3 2024, bringing total overseas stores to 114 [3] - The company continues to diversify IP monetization channels and expand product categories [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 mainland China revenue grew 55%-60% YoY [2] - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas revenue increased 440%-445% YoY [2] - The company is projected to achieve 2024-2025 revenues of 12 5/17 2 billion yuan, representing 98 4%/37 4% growth respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for 2024-2025 is forecasted at 3 14/4 40 billion yuan, with 163%/40% growth [5] Channel Performance - Offline retail stores grew 30%-35% YoY [2] - Offline robot stores increased 20%-25% YoY [2] - Online blind box machines rose 55%-60% YoY [2] - Tmall flagship store sales jumped 155%-160% YoY [2] - Douyin flagship store sales increased 115%-120% YoY [2] Product Development - Released 11/12/9 blind box products in July/August/September 2024 [2] - Launched 6/8/4 MEGA collectible series in July/August/September 2024 [2] - Introduced new product categories including cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE series [4] - Expanded IP monetization through game integration and physical product collaborations [4] International Expansion - Opened 22 new overseas stores in Q3 2024, exceeding H1 2024 additions [3] - Expanded to multiple countries including Thailand, Netherlands, Italy, USA, and Indonesia [3] - Total overseas stores reached 114 by September 2024 [3] Market Position - Current share price: 70 75 HKD [2] - Market capitalization: 95 013 23 million HKD [1] - Price-to-book ratio: 6 85 HKD [1] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 23 28% [1]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 基本数据 港股总股本(百万股) 1,342.94 港股总市值(百万港元) 95,013.23 每股净资产(港元) 6.85 资产负债率(%) 23.28 一年内最高/最低(港元) 78.00/16.90 24Q3 点评：三季度营收同比大涨超 120%，海外营收增 4 倍 泡泡玛特（09992） 证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 投资评级 行业 非必需性消费/家庭电 器及用品 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 70.75 港元 目标价格 港元 事件：北京时间 2024 年 10 月 22 日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）发布 2024 年第 三季度经营数据报告。公司 2024 年第三季度整体收入较去年同期同比增长 120%-125%；分地区来看，2024 年第三季度公司中国大陆地区收益同比增 长 55%-60%；中国港澳台及海外地区收益同比增长 440%-445%。 中国大陆地区分渠道来看，线下零售店同比增长 30%-35%，线下机器人商 店同比增长 20%-25%；泡泡玛特抽盒机同比增长 55%-60%；电商平台及其 他线上渠道同比增长 135%-140%，其中 ...

关注公众号: 永木纪要 23 October 2024 | 8:03AM HKT | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|---------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------|----------- ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|泡泡玛特（09992） 业绩超预期，国内线上调整成效显著， 海外业务加速拓展 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月27日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们预计 2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别为 27.9/36.2/45.4 亿元，对应 PE 为 34/26/21x， EPS 分别为 2.07/2.70/3.38。我们看好公司"IP X 品类 X 全球化"逻辑持续演进，维持"买 入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 姚蕾 丁子然 SAC：S0590524090001 SAC：S0590523080003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月27日 泡泡玛特(09992) 业绩超预期，国内线上调整成效显著，海外 业务加速拓展 | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 行 业： | 轻工制造/文娱用品 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 70.75 港元 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 26 年 月 日 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 境外展店带动收入高增，境内抖音及天猫渠道表现亮眼 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季度业务状况，2024Q3 公司营业收入同比增长 120%-125%，其中中国内地收入同比增长 55%-60%，港澳台及海外收入同 比增长 440%-445%。 境内线下业务稳增长，抖音及天猫旗舰店销量表现亮眼。境内业务方面，公司 推进 IP 及产品品类多元化，进行渠道差异化定位及精细化运营，拉动内地各 渠道收入增长。分渠道看，2024Q3，境内线下业务中零售店收入同比增长 30%-35%，机器人店收入同比增长 20%-25%。2024Q3，境内线上业务中泡 泡玛特抽盒机收入同比增长 55%-60%，电商及其他线上平台收入同比增长 135%-140%。公司内容电商团队根据 IP、商品及用户群体特性，搭建了聚焦 不同品类及使用场景的自营直播间矩阵，以丰富的互动参与提升流量获取及 转化效率，2024Q3 公司抖音平台收入同比增长 115%-120%；天猫旗舰店凭 借品类多点发力、拓展新圈层人群及优化流量运营效率延续增长 ...

泡泡玛特(09992) 公司研究/公司深度 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 分析师： 黄骥 E-mail： huangji@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760523090002 分析师： 李瑶芝 E-mail： liyaozhi@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760524020001 公 司 深 度 买入(首次) 行业： 轻工制造 日期： yxzqdatemark 2024年10月24日 基本数据 10 月 22 日收盘价(港元) 63.45 12mthH 股价格区间(港元) 16.90-64.80 总股本(百万股) 1342.94 流通市值（亿港元） 852.10 最近一年股票与恒生指数比较 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/9 泡泡玛特 恒生指数 资料来源：Wind，甬兴证券研究所 相关报告： 强 IP 运营能力，文化出海进行时 ——泡泡玛特首次覆盖报告 ◼ 核心观点 国内最大潮玩公司，建立了覆盖潮玩全 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [3] Core Views - Pop Mart's overseas business has entered a rapid development phase with a focus on the DTC (Direct To Customer) model, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [1] - The company's overseas revenue in H1 2024 increased by 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 351 billion, accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing market, with revenue increasing by 478 3% YoY to RMB 556 million in H1 2024 [1] Channels - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its offline stores and robot stores overseas, with 92 stores and 162 robot stores as of June 2024 [1] - The company adopts a "platform + independent station" strategy for online channels, leveraging third-party platforms and building its own independent sites to strengthen brand influence [1] Operations - Pop Mart focuses on product customization and localized promotion, collaborating with international brands and local artists to enhance cultural integration [1] - The company actively operates on international social media platforms and collaborates with KOLs to promote its products [1] Supply Chain - Pop Mart has established overseas bonded warehouses in Southeast Asia and North America, supporting its global supply chain system [1] - The company has achieved a stable inventory level of around RMB 900 million in H1 2024, despite high overseas sales growth [1] Market Potential - The global toy market is expanding, with the Southeast Asian market showing strong growth potential due to its young population and cultural similarities with China [1] - Pop Mart's focus on Southeast Asia is expected to drive long-term growth, leveraging the region's market potential and demographic dividend [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with overseas revenue projected to reach RMB 5 149 billion in 2024, representing a 383% YoY increase [1] - Pop Mart's net profit is forecasted to grow by 117 5% YoY in 2024, reaching RMB 2 354 billion [1] Valuation - The report estimates Pop Mart's target market value at RMB 90 5 billion for 2025, corresponding to a 30x PE ratio, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 泡泡玛特（09992.HK）24Q3 经营数据点评 推荐（维持） Q3 业绩超预期，海外营收继续高增 目标价：88.10 港元 当前价：75.85 港元 事项： 公司公布 2024 年三季度经营情况公告。24Q3，公司营收预计同比增长 120%- 125%，其中中国内地营收同比增长 55%-60%，港澳台及海外营收同比增长 440%-445%，业绩超市场预期。 评论： 国内：线上营收表现亮眼，新品推广持续发力。分渠道看，线下增速稳健： 24Q3，零售店收入同比+30-35%，机器人商店收入同比+20-25%，批发及其他 渠道收入同比+45-50%；线上延续高增：24Q3，泡泡玛特抽盒机收入同比+55- 60%，电商平台及其他线上平台同比+135-140%（其中抖音平台同比+115- 120%，天猫旗舰店店同比+155-160%）。新品推广方面，公司 7-9 月上新数分 别为 23/13/27 个（不考虑杯类、充电线类等周边产品，但考虑了徽章、毛绒公 仔等产品），其中 MOLLY/SKULLPANDA/DIMOO/The MONSTERS 等核心 IP 均保持较快推新进度。年初至今，OI ...

[Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$75.20 目标价 HK$80.90 HTI ESG 4.0-3.5-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 51.3% 87.1% 238.0% 绝对值（美元） 51.7% 87.9% 240.3% 相对 MSCI China 34.7% 68.1% 215.7% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 6,301 12,420 16,206 19,966 Revenue (+/-) 36% 97% 30% 23% Net profit 1,191 2,851 3,879 4,951 Net profit (+/-) 108% 139% 36% 28% Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.89 2.14 2.91 3.72 GPM 61.3% 65.1% 66.2% ...