Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 market is rapidly expanding due to factors such as rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional consumption, the rise of domestic潮流 culture, and quality IPs [1][4] - The competitive landscape of the潮玩 market in China is relatively fragmented, with significant room for improvement compared to Japan [1][5] 潮玩 Industry Overview -潮玩 is defined as toys that integrate elements of潮流 culture, art, design, and various other concepts, characterized by high visual recognition, limited releases, and cross-industry collaborations [1] - The潮玩 industry includes various forms such as blind boxes, figurines, plush toys, gashapon, cards, dolls, art toys, assembly toys, and building sets [1] 潮玩 Industry Chain - The upstream segment consists of IP suppliers and operators, where high-quality IP suppliers hold strong bargaining power based on the scarcity and market popularity of their IPs [2] - The midstream includes潮玩 product manufacturers, who generally have weaker bargaining power; manufacturers with large-scale production capabilities are more likely to succeed [2] - The downstream segment involves retailers and consumers, where retailers' bargaining power depends on the quantity and quality of their IP reserves [2] Comparison with Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry has matured and offers valuable lessons for China; despite challenges like declining birth rates, the industry has thrived due to the rise of gaming and anime [3] - In China, rising disposable income and a shift towards emotional consumption are driving demand for潮玩 and related products, despite demographic challenges [3] Market Growth and Projections - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [4] Market Concentration and Competition - The Chinese潮玩 market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of only 23.7% [5] - New domestic companies are rapidly expanding, with significant growth rates compared to international giants [5] - The quality and quantity of domestic IPs are increasing, with notable examples including《原神》,《黑神话：悟空》, and characters from泡泡玛特 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent challenges faced by Pop Mart, including a negative report from Bernstein and internal employee dissatisfaction, while highlighting the continued wealth accumulation of its founder, Wang Ning, amidst these issues [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - Bernstein has categorized Pop Mart as a speculative toy company and has issued a "underperform" rating, marking the second time the firm has expressed a bearish outlook on the company [1][2]. - Despite the negative sentiment, Wang Ning's wealth has surged to 182 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 40 billion yuan in five months, making him the top U40 entrepreneur according to the Hurun report [2][8]. - Following a live-stream incident where employees criticized the pricing, Pop Mart's stock initially dipped but later rebounded, with a notable increase of over 8% on November 10 [7][8]. Group 2: Employee and Consumer Sentiment - Employees have expressed skepticism about the brand's value, with one incident during a live stream revealing internal discontent regarding pricing strategies [3][4]. - The company has faced over 26,000 complaints on the Black Cat Complaints platform, primarily concerning product quality and poor after-sales service [6]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's products, particularly the DIMOO series, continue to sell well, with significant price premiums observed, such as a 7.3 times increase for certain items [7][9]. - The company reported a 245% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with a gross margin of 70.3%, surpassing major luxury brands [12]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Market Trends - Bernstein's bearish outlook is partly due to signs of slowing growth, with a notable decline in transaction volumes and market interest for key products like LABUBU [14]. - Competitors such as Miniso's TOPTOY and 52TOYS are emerging, posing threats to Pop Mart's market share by adopting aggressive pricing and targeting different consumer segments [14][15].

Key Points - On November 11, Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Yingfu Fund (02800), and Pop Mart (09992) ranked the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.176 billion, 860 million, and 577 million respectively [1] - Xpeng Motors-W (09868), Alibaba-W (09988), and Tencent Holdings (00700) ranked the top three in net outflow of southbound funds, with net outflows of -2.277 billion, -2.026 billion, and -464 million respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Southern Hong Kong American Technology (03442), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and Southern East-West Select (03441) led the market with ratios of 104.46%, 79.46%, and 71.68% respectively [1] - In terms of net outflow ratio, Poly Property (06049), Huadian International Power (01071), and CIMC Group (02039) led the market with ratios of -56.53%, -52.40%, and -51.26% respectively [1] Top 10 Net Inflow Stocks - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 1.176 billion with a net inflow ratio of 17.99% and a closing price of 42.980 (+1.46%) [2] - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a net inflow of 860 million with a net inflow ratio of 5.58% and a closing price of 26.840 (+0.15%) [2] - Pop Mart (09992) had a net inflow of 577 million with a net inflow ratio of 23.31% and a closing price of 223.200 (+0.81%) [2] Top 10 Net Outflow Stocks - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) had a net outflow of -2.277 billion with a net outflow ratio of -25.24% and a closing price of 108.500 (+17.93%) [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net outflow of -2.026 billion with a net outflow ratio of -17.36% and a closing price of 160.400 (-1.84%) [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net outflow of -464 million with a net outflow ratio of -5.47% and a closing price of 650.000 (+0.08%) [2] Top 10 Net Inflow Ratios - Southern Hong Kong American Technology (03442) had a net inflow ratio of 104.46% with a net inflow of 24.9565 million and a closing price of 9.405 (+0.53%) [3] - Wanwu Cloud (02602) had a net inflow ratio of 79.46% with a net inflow of 26.8071 million and a closing price of 23.380 (+1.12%) [3] - Southern East-West Select (03441) had a net inflow ratio of 71.68% with a net inflow of 18.7161 million and a closing price of 10.430 (+0.68%) [3] Top 10 Net Outflow Ratios - Poly Property (06049) had a net outflow ratio of -56.53% with a net outflow of -11.1643 million and a closing price of 35.500 (+1.43%) [3] - Huadian International Power (01071) had a net outflow ratio of -52.40% with a net outflow of -40.7926 million and a closing price of 4.640 (-0.22%) [3] - CIMC Group (02039) had a net outflow ratio of -51.26% with a net outflow of -27.2594 million and a closing price of 7.080 (-2.21%) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bernstein's report raises concerns about Pop Mart's fourth-quarter performance, suggesting it may fall short of market expectations, leading to a decline in the company's stock price in the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bernstein's report indicates a general slowdown in demand for Pop Mart's products in both domestic and overseas markets since June, which analysts believe signals a fundamental demand deceleration rather than temporary market noise [3]. - Following the report, Pop Mart's stock experienced a drop of 3.7% on November 12, becoming one of the biggest losers in the market, with the stock having already declined nearly 40% from its peak in late August [3]. - Despite the recent downturn, Pop Mart's stock has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 140% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Among over 40 brokerages covering Pop Mart, Bernstein is the only firm to issue an "underperform" rating, while the majority remain optimistic about the company's prospects [4]. - As of November 13, Pop Mart's stock opened down 1.6% but closed slightly up at 220.4 HKD per share, reflecting mixed market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance - Pop Mart reported a staggering 250% year-on-year increase in sales for the third quarter, yet there are ongoing concerns regarding the sustainability of demand for its popular products, particularly the Labubu dolls [4].

从LABUBU爆火，到Jellycat的互动式下单，再到捏捏玩具…… 记者注意到， 在新消费的浪潮中，一批看似没有任何功效的无用商品正在悄然崛起，它们无法满足衣食住行等生活基本需求，但却能满足年轻人的情绪 需求。 就连三六零创始人周鸿祎在接受记者专访时也表示，如果不用 情绪经济来解码，还是用传统商业的思维来思考，就无法理解当前很多的商业现象。 国研新经济研究院创始院长朱克力认为，这些现象反映了 消费升级的趋势。年轻人不再满足于产品的基本功能，更注重 产品带来的情感附加值。 那么 在这一波新消费的浪潮中 谁能抓住机会？ 记者综合采访发现 IP化、智能化 或是下一个火爆产品的关键词 肖女士是泡泡玛特的忠实粉丝，她告诉记者，在LABUBU爆火前，她就非常喜欢这个IP，因为它的长相很有个性，不像市面上的盲盒玩偶多是乖萌的风 格。 成都环贸ICD泡泡玛特快闪店。图据成都日报 当问及为何愿意在实用价值不大的LABUBU上花钱时，肖女士称，其 满足了她的 情绪价值，整个系列买回来放在家里装饰，光是看着也会感到满足，" 开心、快乐、成就感都有。" MobTech研究院发布的《情绪经济消费人群洞察报告（2024）》显示，202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the潮玩 (trendy toy) sector [4]. Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is characterized by its integration of various cultural elements, including art, design, and popular IPs, leading to a unique product offering that appeals to consumers [2][3]. - The Chinese潮玩 market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing disposable income, the rise of emotional consumption, and the emergence of quality domestic IPs [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with new domestic players leading market growth, while established international brands maintain a significant presence [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1.潮玩 Industry Overview and Value Chain -潮玩 is defined as toys that incorporate trendy culture, featuring high visual recognition and limited release mechanisms [2]. - The value chain consists of three segments: upstream (IP supply and operators), midstream (manufacturers), and downstream (retailers and consumers) [2][3]. 2. Comparison with the Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry serves as a reference for China, having evolved through economic cycles, with a notable shift towards virtual entertainment during economic downturns [3][19]. - Despite challenges like declining birth rates, the Japanese market has seen growth in related sectors such as animation and gaming, which has positively impacted the潮玩 industry [3][22]. 3. Growth of the Chinese潮玩 Market - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 229 billion yuan in 2020 to 763 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [3][33]. - The market remains fragmented, with the top five players holding a combined market share of 23.7%, indicating potential for consolidation [4][52]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on潮玩 companies that cover the entire value chain and possess quality IP resources, as they are likely to outperform in the competitive landscape [4][7].

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market shows mixed performance, with Hong Kong stocks rising, led by healthcare, conglomerates, and real estate, while consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials lag behind [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 4.286 billion HKD, with Xiaomi Group-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and Pop Mart leading in net purchases, while Alibaba-W, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC saw the highest net sales [1] - A-shares declined, with the largest drops in electrical equipment, machinery, and software services, while the biggest gains were in industrial trade, home appliances, and oil & petrochemicals [1] Group 2 - US Treasury yields continue to decline, while the dollar initially rises before falling [2] - The percentage of subprime auto loan borrowers in the US who are more than 60 days overdue reached 6.65%, the highest since records began in 1994, indicating rising financial pressure on low-income groups [2] - Recent unofficial data shows weakening employment figures and softening consumer trends, with rent increases and oil prices continuing to decline, suggesting a potential short-term drop in inflation rather than a rebound [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.85% to close at 26,922.73 points on November 12, with a net inflow of HKD 4.286 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The total trading volume for the southbound trading on November 12 was HKD 105.405 billion, with a net buy of HKD 4.286 billion [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading accounted for HKD 66.456 billion in trading volume and a net buy of HKD 3.397 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had HKD 38.949 billion in trading volume and a net buy of HKD 0.889 billion [1] Group 2: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W was the most actively traded stock on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a trading volume of HKD 70.00 billion, but it experienced a net sell of HKD 23.26 billion, closing down by 2.24% [1][2] - Xiaomi Group-W followed with a trading volume of HKD 36.36 billion and a net buy of HKD 9.41 billion, closing up by 1.68% [1][2] - On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Alibaba-W also led with a trading volume of HKD 42.72 billion and a net sell of HKD 11.07 billion, closing down by 2.24% [2] - Other notable stocks included Tencent Holdings with a trading volume of HKD 27.24 billion and a net buy of HKD 6.18 billion, and SMIC with a trading volume of HKD 16.61 billion [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.85% on November 12, with a total southbound trading volume of HKD 105.4 billion, including HKD 54.8 billion in buy transactions and HKD 50.6 billion in sell transactions, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 4.3 billion [1] - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) totaled HKD 38.9 billion, with buy transactions of HKD 19.9 billion and sell transactions of HKD 19.0 billion, leading to a net inflow of HKD 0.9 billion; while Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total of HKD 66.5 billion, with buy transactions of HKD 34.9 billion and sell transactions of HKD 31.5 billion, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 3.4 billion [1] - Alibaba-W had the highest trading volume among southbound stocks, totaling HKD 112.72 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W and SMIC with HKD 54.04 billion and HKD 43.22 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group-W recorded the highest net inflow among stocks, with a net buy of HKD 15.92 billion, closing up by 1.68%; followed by XPeng Motors with a net buy of HKD 7.18 billion, and Pop Mart with a net buy of HKD 6.31 billion [1] - Conversely, Alibaba-W experienced the largest net outflow of HKD 34.34 billion, closing down by 2.24%; Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC also faced significant net outflows of HKD 9.85 billion and HKD 4.28 billion respectively [1] - Over a continuous period, Xiaomi Group-W saw a net inflow for 11 consecutive days, totaling HKD 81.36 billion, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Pop Mart had net inflows of HKD 28.21 billion and HKD 14.55 billion respectively [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market sentiment against these stocks [1][2]. Short-Selling Ratios - The top three companies with the highest short-selling ratios are Hang Seng Bank-R (80011) and BYD Company-R (81211), both at 100.00%, followed by Kuaishou-WR (81024) at 90.79% [1][2]. - The short-selling ratio for Shengjing Bank (02066) is 83.46%, while Meituan-WR (83690) has a ratio of 77.62% [2]. Short-Selling Amounts - The companies with the highest short-selling amounts are Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at 2.038 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) at 1.705 billion, and Pop Mart (09992) at 1.689 billion [1][2]. - Other notable companies include Alibaba-SW (09988) with 1.451 billion and Ping An Insurance (02318) with 1.368 billion [2]. Short-Selling Deviation Values - The top three companies with the highest deviation values are Shengjing Bank (02066) at 71.47%, Hang Seng Bank-R (80011) at 60.71%, and BYD Company-R (81211) at 49.79% [1][2]. - Kuaishou-WR (81024) has a deviation value of 40.46%, indicating a significant difference from its historical short-selling average [2].