但这种一口咬定泡泡玛特存在泡沫的结论无异于沙上建塔、刻舟求剑。 每经记者 毕媛媛 2025年10月，投资研究机构伯恩斯坦写了份95页的雄文，公开唱空股价年内涨了两倍多的文化消费龙头 泡泡玛特。 外资机构着实不讲武德，伯恩斯坦的报告标题不仅惊悚，甚至有种短视频爆款的美感——《灿烂笑容的 背后，泡沫何时破裂？》 伯恩斯坦大胆预测：LABUBU的销量将在2026-27年达到峰值，并"可能"引发消费者兴趣下降、销量下 滑、利润率压缩以及⼆级市场下跌的恶性循环，最终"导致股价⼤幅回调"。 显然，华尔街的精英们习惯了用茅台的审美去看消费品——在他们眼中，黄牛退场和溢价消失意味着崩 盘的前兆。但忽略了在酒桌上喝茅台的人未必是真想喝，喝酒的人和买单的人也不是同一个人，但抢购 泡泡玛特的人大概率是真心想要一个LABUBU。 伯恩斯坦宁愿相信高频数据线性外推出的"可能销售下滑"，也不相信线下门店的盛况—消费者的需求正 在被泡泡玛特很好地满足，这何尝不是另一种"精英的傲慢"。 渗透率才是护城河 抛开剂量谈毒性不合适，抛开渗透率去谈稀缺性同样不妥当。 泡泡玛特的商业模式从来不靠产品的稀缺性维系。锚定潮玩赛道之初，泡泡玛特的底层逻辑就 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计泡泡玛特(09992)在美国的销售增长将更具韧性，集团的整体销售表现亦 将超出市场预期。重申泡泡玛特为首选股，予目标价325港元，评级为"增持" 大摩表示，进入2026年，相信市场焦点可能会由美国市场与Labubu产品转向集团整体发展动力。虽然 泡泡玛特的北美市场需有更多投入以释放长期潜力，但其在中国及亚洲的地位将成为集团2026年增长的 基石。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计泡泡玛特(09992)在美国的销售增长将更具韧性，集团 的整体销售表现亦将超出市场预期。重申泡泡玛特为首选股，予目标价325港元，评级为"增持" 大摩表示，进入2026年，相信市场焦点可能会由美国市场与Labubu产品转向集团整体发展动力。虽然 泡泡玛特的北美市场需有更多投入以释放长期潜力，但其在中国及亚洲的地位将成为集团2026年增长的 基石。 ...

摩根士丹利发表研究报告，预计泡泡玛特在美国的销售增长将更具韧性，集团的整体销售表现亦将超出 市场预期。踏入2026年，该行相信市场焦点或会由美国市场与Labubu产品转向集团整体发展动力。大 摩表示，虽然泡泡玛特的北美市场需有更多投入以释放长期潜力，但其在中国及亚洲的地位将成为集团 2026年增长的基石。该行重申泡泡玛特为首选股，予目标价325港元，评级"增持"。 ...

不过，围绕Labubu热度可持续性的疑虑仍然压制泡泡玛特在香港上市的股票价格。自去年8月创下纪录 新高以来，其股价已下挫约40%。 泡泡玛特表示，其在墨西哥的合作生产基地已投入运营，以满足快速增长的北美市场对于潮流玩具的强 劲需求。 泡泡玛特的发言人告诉媒体称，墨西哥、柬埔寨和印尼的生产合作伙伴加入了泡泡玛特的供应网络。泡 泡玛特并无自有工厂。 自玩偶Labubu去年成为全球现象级产品以来，这家中国潮流玩具公司一直在提升产能。从中国、日本 到美国以及东南亚地区对这些常以"盲盒"形式售卖、鼓励收藏不同款式的玩偶的需求飙升，导致实体门 店经常缺货，并推高了转售价格。 作为少数获得全球消费者追捧的中国品牌之一，泡泡玛特正在加大对美国市场的投入，计划今年将美国 门店数量增加一倍。目前，泡泡玛特在美国约有60家门店以及100台"roboshop"自动售货机。 自玩偶Labubu去年成为全球现象级产品以来，这家中国潮流玩具公司一直在提升产能。从中国、日本 到美国以及东南亚地区对这些常以"盲盒"形式售卖、鼓励收藏不同款式的玩偶的需求飙升，导致实体门 店经常缺货，并推高了转售价格。 作为少数获得全球消费者追捧的中国品牌之一， ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 港股速报 | 港股持续走强 新消费概念股反弹 泡泡玛特领涨 每经记者|曾子建 每经编辑|袁东 1月6日，港股市场持续走强，各类指数纷纷高开。 后市展望： 东吴证券发布研报称，港股开年"独秀"全球，从中长期配置来看，当前位置有吸引力。未来该行预计南向资金会继续增配港股，边际增量主要来自保险和固 收+。外资是否大幅回流还是看基本面叙事是否有变化。港股从现在进入震荡上行期，仍需将红利作为底仓，把握上半年的科技成长行情。考虑估值，AH 对比视角，南向资金整体会增配港股科技成长股票，但港股科技行情仍会受海外降息节奏和美股科技行情影响，需动态观察。 恒生科技指数开盘报5787.01点，上涨45.38点，涨幅0.79%。截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨幅一度超过1.70%。 市场热点方面，新消费概念股迎来反弹。其中，泡泡玛特（HK09992）领涨，早盘一度涨超5%，新年以来累计涨超9%。此外，布鲁可涨超3%，老铺黄金、 奈雪的茶涨超1%。 浦银国际认为，作为全球潮玩行业的引领者，泡泡玛特具备稳固的基本面和高确定性的长期增长逻辑，但公司当前股价已回落至15倍P ...

华润啤酒-R(80291)、比亚迪股份-R(81211)、小米集团-WR(81810)上一交易日沽空比率位于前三位，分 别为100.00%、100.00%、75.49%。中国平安(02318)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、小米集团-W(01810)的沽空 金额位居前三，分别为20.81 亿元、18.71 亿元、16.24 亿元。比亚迪股份-R(81211)、旭辉控股集团 (00884)、小米集团-WR(81810)的偏离值位居前三，分别为43.54%、39.74%、34.28%。 前十大沽空偏离值排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率 | 偏离值↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪股份-R(81211) | 64.27 万元 | 100.00% | 43.54% | | 旭辉控股集团(00884) | 424.46 万元 | 48.32% | 39.74% | | 小米集团-WR(81810) | 243.83 万元 | 75.49% | 34.28% | | 华润啤酒-R(80291) | 16.62 万元 | 100.00% | 31.17% | | 香格里拉(亚 ...

Group 1: Local Government Bonds - Shandong Province issued 723.81 billion yuan in local government bonds, marking the first issuance in the country for the year [2] - The issuance included 467.72 billion yuan in new special bonds and 256.09 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds, focusing on investment in new projects [2] - The Ministry of Finance established a dedicated Debt Management Department to enhance government debt management, which was previously fragmented [2][3] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2025, China approved 76 innovative drugs, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024, with domestic drugs accounting for 85.5% of the total [4] - The total value of authorized transactions for innovative drugs exceeded 130 billion USD, with over 150 transactions, setting a new record [4] - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry has seen substantial growth, particularly in innovative drugs, supported by reforms in drug approval processes and enhanced intellectual property protections [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Six major listed car manufacturers reported their 2025 sales, with BYD leading at 4.6024 million units, a 7.73% increase, followed by SAIC and Geely [6] - The growth in sales was driven primarily by the expansion of electric vehicles, with BYD's electric vehicle sales surpassing Tesla for the first time [6][7] - The competitive landscape in the automotive market is intensifying, with companies focusing on optimizing product structures and expanding overseas [7] Group 4: Oil Market - OPEC+ decided to maintain stable oil production levels, postponing planned increases due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [8] - Despite Venezuela's significant oil reserves, production remains low due to insufficient investment, limiting its impact on global supply [8][9] - The global oil market faces challenges in stabilizing prices amid concerns of overproduction and geopolitical factors [9] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - In 2025, 385 Hong Kong stocks saw over 100% growth, with 14 stocks increasing more than tenfold, indicating a strong market performance [14] - The increase in "red stocks" reflects a growing willingness to assign long-term value to internet giants and a high enthusiasm for growth sectors [15] - The A-share market opened positively in 2026, with significant gains across various sectors, particularly in insurance and AI applications [16][17] Group 6: Consumer Products - Prices for certain LABUBU products in the second-hand market have dropped significantly, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics [10][11] - The price decline is attributed to increased production by the company, which aims to balance consumer demand with product scarcity [11] Group 7: Technology and AI - Samsung plans to double the number of mobile devices equipped with Google's Gemini AI system, aiming to regain market share in the smartphone sector [12][13] - The integration of AI into various products, including home appliances, highlights a trend towards combining hardware and software solutions [13]

长沙晚报全媒体记者 贾凯清 实习生 王子昕 "去年我花3800元收的Labubu草莓脆饼隐藏款，现在闲鱼上全新未拆的标价才1600多元！"资深潮玩爱好 者小杨苦笑着展示手机上的交易记录，"感觉自己像个被套牢的股民。" 与小杨有相似经历的潮玩爱好者不在少数。曾经风光无限的潮玩市场，特别是Labubu系列，正经历着 一场剧烈的价值重估。 "我手里有5个Labubu的隐藏款，都是高峰期收的，现在算下来亏了将近一万元。"从事设计工作的潮玩 收藏者李先生告诉记者，他的展示柜里面整齐排列着各种造型的Labubu玩偶，"当时觉得这些肯定会升 值，没想到跌得这么狠。" "才短短半年时间，Labubu就降价了，幸亏当时没'入股'！"看着二手交易平台上降价出售的Labubu玩 偶，潮玩爱好者小文感慨道。 曾几何时，泡泡玛特生产的Labubu系列产品被视为潮玩市场"硬通货"，其限量款在二级市场一度被炒至 数千元甚至上万元，成为不少投资者眼中的"理财产品"。然而，短短半年时间，这个被热捧的潮玩IP价 格便"跌下神坛"，部分产品跌幅超过80%，市场价格逐渐回归理性。 从"理财产品"回归"普通消费品"，Labubu降价的背后有哪些因素？ ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a narrow range of fluctuations on January 5, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.03%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.09% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Large tech stocks exhibited mixed performance, with Kuaishou surging by over 11%, while other notable stocks like Bilibili and Alibaba also saw gains of over 5% and 2%, respectively. Conversely, stocks like NetEase and Xiaomi fell by over 2% [2][4]. - The biotechnology sector was active, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Kelun-Bothai rising over 7%, and other firms like Fuhong Hanlin and Tigermed increasing by over 6% [7]. - The insurance sector saw strong gains, with China Pacific Insurance up over 6% and New China Life Insurance up over 5%. Analysts highlighted five key trends in the life insurance industry for 2026, including rapid growth in new business and a shift in customer demographics [8]. - The automotive sector faced declines, with Great Wall Motors dropping over 6% and NIO nearly 6%. Despite some brands achieving record sales in 2025, only a few met their annual sales targets [10]. Notable Stock Movements - Kuaishou's stock price reached 73.60 HKD, reflecting an increase of 11.09% with a market cap of 317.91 billion HKD [5]. - Nanjing Panda Electronics surged by nearly 40%, while Micron Brain Science and Brainhole Technology rose by nearly 20% and over 17%, respectively, following news of Neuralink's plans for large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices [6][4]. - The "three oil giants" saw significant declines, with China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation both dropping over 3% due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions [9]. Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 18.723 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 9.809 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 8.914 billion HKD [12]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, predicting a 15% to 20% annual increase in the Chinese stock market for 2026 and 2027. Guosen Securities also sees potential in the market driven by a weaker US dollar and improved domestic liquidity in the spring of 2026 [15].