Core Viewpoint - As a globally scarce trendy IP platform, the company has clear performance growth points in the medium term, and despite short-term fluctuations in third-party data, the outlook remains positive for the company [1] Group 1: IP Growth - The company is expected to maintain a growth trend in its IP segment, with a stable performance from the leading IP Labubu and significant contributions from emerging IPs like Xingxingren and Crybaby [2][3] - Labubu, despite a high base, has the potential for continued revenue growth in 2026 due to its stable global influence, expanded production capacity, and improved overseas supply chain and logistics [2][3] - The second-tier IPs, such as Xingxingren, are showing significant growth, with the latest series performing well and expected to drive overall growth [3][4] Group 2: Production Capacity - In 2025, the company faced production capacity limitations but is projected to meet market demand by December with a monthly capacity nearing 50 million units [3] - The company is expected to start 2026 with a high production capacity, allowing for the full release of potential growth [3] Group 3: Store Expansion - The company is in a stable expansion phase for overseas stores, with significant room for growth, particularly in the U.S. market where the number of stores is still low compared to established brands [5] - As of January 28, the total number of overseas stores reached 187, with ongoing expansion in various regions, indicating a sustained growth trajectory [5] Group 4: Product Innovation - Continuous product innovation is being validated, with new interactive features being introduced in products, enhancing user engagement [4][6] - The company plans to launch new product categories, such as mini BJD, which are expected to broaden the usage scenarios and enhance customer loyalty [6][7] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 39.87 billion, 52.00 billion, and 61.59 billion for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 205.8%, 30.4%, and 18.4% respectively [8] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 13.48 billion, 17.68 billion, and 21.72 billion for the same period, with significant growth rates [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its performance in 2026, driven by strong sales of new products and an expanding operational footprint, indicating a promising start to the year [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in 2025, with LABUBU's annual sales expected to exceed 100 million units and total product sales across all IPs projected to surpass 400 million units [1]. - The company has expanded its business to over 100 countries and regions, with more than 700 global stores, up from 571 stores in the first half of 2025 [1]. - The supply chain capabilities have been strengthened, with the company currently operating six major supply chain bases [1]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - The founder emphasized the importance of art and culture in providing meaning in life, indicating a commitment to enhancing the company's role in society [2]. - The company plans to focus on operational details and expand landmark stores while incubating new businesses in overseas markets [2]. Group 3: New Product Performance - New product lines have shown strong performance, with significant growth in GMV on domestic platforms like Douyin in January [2]. - Key products such as the "马力全开" series and "小马宝莉" have ranked among the top five in sales, contributing to a robust multi-IP matrix for the new year [2]. - The company has partnered with Simon Property Group to open over 20 new retail stores across the U.S., indicating a strong channel expansion strategy for 2026 [2]. Group 4: Brand Universe Expansion - The company is diversifying its brand universe beyond toys, with developments in amusement parks, desserts, jewelry, and entertainment [3]. - The amusement park is attracting a significant number of visitors, with 60% being from outside the region, and plans for further expansion are underway [3]. - The dessert brand POP Bakery has launched in multiple cities, with plans for further exploration into new markets [3]. - The independent jewelry brand popop has opened multiple stores, with more locations planned [3]. Group 5: Financial Projections - The company maintains its previous profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 38.384 billion, 52.768 billion, and 65.698 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 13.291 billion, 18.599 billion, and 23.91 billion CNY respectively [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.91, 13.86, and 17.82 CNY for the same period, with the latest stock price corresponding to a PE ratio of 22, 16, and 12 times [3].

Core Insights - The market perception of Pop Mart is evolving from a "blind box company" to a "global IP full industry chain group" as of 2026, indicating a qualitative leap in recognition [1] Group 1: Growth and IP Development - Labubu's strong growth is sustainable due to the company's proactive adjustment of new product rhythms, supply chain optimization, and IP family strategy, transitioning from a phenomenon to a core IP [1] - Healthy growth is reflected in the decline of secondary market prices, which is seen as a positive clearing rather than a collapse, laying the foundation for long-term growth [1] - The company has established an industrialized and replicable IP incubation system, demonstrating the ability to mass-produce "medium-sized IPs" [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The North American market has significant growth potential, driven by strategic store expansion and localized operations, with plans to open approximately 270-550 stores [1] - A multi-layered network of "flagship, core, and channel stores" is being developed, with a focus on regional penetration through clustered openings in states like Illinois and Texas [1] - The European market is rapidly penetrating, particularly in the UK and France, with a revenue of 478 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 729% [2] Group 3: New Business Initiatives - New business lines such as POP BAKERY and POPOP are being developed to extend consumption scenarios around IP, creating high-frequency consumption opportunities [2] - POP BAKERY offers IP-themed desserts priced between 39 to 199 yuan, while POPOP provides affordable luxury jewelry priced between 249 to 2699 yuan, enhancing customer value [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company anticipates steady revenue growth in 2026, with total revenue expected to reach 51 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 18 billion yuan, driven by overseas market expansion and domestic store renovations [2]

泡泡玛特与游戏重申推荐 20260210 摘要 多模态能力提升和 IP 价值受关注，影视内容制作公司和核心 IP 公司股价 上涨，多模态方向在内容产品和 IP 源头均是重要催化剂。OpenAI 计划 测试 GPT 广告应用，预示海外大模型商业化加速，应关注海外大模型变 现主线及相关广告营销公司。 泡泡玛特底部反弹近 50%，得益于市场对空投叙事脱敏及二三线 IP 如 新星人、Punkie、SP 通过新产品形态或联动活动取得成功。2025 年底 注册会员破 1 亿，50%为新增，海外市场通过改善供应链和物流取得成 效。 泡泡玛特 2026 年增长点包括：头部 IP 拉布布稳定增长，收入预计达 100-130 亿元；二线 IP 放量；产能扩张，单月毛绒产能达 5,000 万只； 新店开设；与 LV、苹果等异业品牌合作推出联名产品。 拉布布作为核心 IP，收入占比预计维持在公司总收入的 30%左右，即 130 亿人民币。二线 IP 如星星人、Cry Baby、Ziska 和小野等展现快 速增长，星星人糖胶毛绒系列在抖音首发销量超 15 万件，公司资源倾 斜二线 IP。 Q&A 近期 AI 板块的表现如何？有哪些值得 ...

Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Ltd - **Industry**: Pop toy industry - **Market Cap**: HK$361,948 million (US$46,316 million) [6] Key Points 1. IP-Centric Diversification Strategy - Pop Mart's strategy focuses on diversifying its intellectual property (IP) portfolio to mitigate cyclical risks and stimulate new demand. The recent collaboration, Skullpanda x My Little Pony, has shown significant interest, particularly on social media platforms like Instagram [1][3]. 2. Growth in APP Engagement - There has been a notable increase in mobile app downloads and active users, particularly in China and the US, attributed to new product releases. This trend is expected to continue during the upcoming Chinese New Year Golden Week [2][10]. 3. Emerging IPs Beyond LABUBU - Other IPs such as SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are becoming significant growth drivers, with over 400 million units sold across all IPs in 2025. The interest in these non-LABUBU IPs in international markets may be underestimated [3][4]. 4. Overseas Market Potential - The sustainability of Pop Mart's growth is debated, particularly regarding the US market. The company is focusing on localized operations and collaborations to enhance its global presence. The total addressable market (TAM) for overseas markets is substantial, and improvements in organizational structure and supply chain are expected to drive expansion [4][22]. 5. Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023: Net Profit of RMB 1,082 million, EPS of RMB 0.807 - 2024: Net Profit of RMB 3,125 million, EPS of RMB 2.346 - 2025E: Net Profit of RMB 13,549 million, EPS of RMB 10.158 - 2026E: Net Profit of RMB 18,357 million, EPS of RMB 13.763 - 2027E: Net Profit of RMB 23,163 million, EPS of RMB 17.366 [5][8]. 6. Investment Recommendation - Pop Mart is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$415, representing a potential upside of 53.8%. The expected total return is 55.5%, with a dividend yield of 1.7% [6][24]. 7. Risks - Key risks include rising competition in the pop toy market, potential disappointments in global expansion, challenges in IP commercialization, and regulatory changes. Despite a high-risk rating, qualitative factors such as execution capability support the investment thesis [25][26]. 8. Market Position - Pop Mart is recognized as the largest pop toy company in China, with a growing global footprint. The company aims to capture the emerging trend of "spiritual consumption" among younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, through its diverse IP characters and marketing strategies [22][23]. 9. Valuation Metrics - The company trades at a premium compared to global peers due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion. The valuation is supported by a strong growth profile and execution capabilities [24]. 10. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory through innovative product offerings and effective IP management, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [1][4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating stock performance of Pop Mart and the perspectives of its founder, Wang Ning, on the company's future and the nature of consumer behavior towards collectible toys [2][3][49]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart's market capitalization dropped from over 450 billion HKD in August to 264.56 billion HKD [46]. - Despite a significant drop, Pop Mart's stock rebounded with a year-to-date increase of over 20% following the popularity of "electronic wooden fish" [47]. - Institutional investors have sold shares in Pop Mart during eight of the nineteen quarters since its IPO, indicating skepticism about its long-term success [50]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - The number of funds holding Pop Mart shares has varied significantly, with 311 funds holding 7,232.84 million shares in Q2 2025, a decrease from 136 funds holding 4,153.52 million shares in Q4 2025 [51]. - Notable fund managers like Zhang Kun and Xiao Nan exited their positions after experiencing significant losses, while Zhou Wenbo from Fortune Fund has seen a 977.5% increase in stock price since his investment in Q3 2023 [52][54]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Positioning - Wang Ning emphasizes that consumer behavior is driven by emotional needs, suggesting that the market for spiritual consumption will grow as people seek fulfillment beyond basic needs [56][57]. - Pop Mart is positioned as a premium product in the collectible toy market, with its business model focusing on emotional connections rather than just sales [58][59]. - The company aims to create a unique brand language and cultural identity, which enhances its market presence and consumer engagement [64][65]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Vision - Wang Ning believes that the future of Pop Mart will be shaped by its ability to balance commercial success with artistic expression, positioning itself as a leader in the collectible toy industry [59][60]. - The company is focused on long-term growth and sustainability, emphasizing the importance of respecting time and operational details in business [62][63]. - Pop Mart's strategy includes global expansion and leveraging China's manufacturing capabilities to enhance its competitive edge in the international market [30][31].

花旗发表研报指出，预测泡泡玛特(9992.HK)以IP为核心的多元化策略，可增强其抵御IP周期性风险的 能力，重振新需求。花旗每周数据追踪显示，近期APP下载量呈上升趋势，尤其中国和美国，认为主要 受旗下Skullpanda x My Little Pony新系列的发布；展望2026年，花旗预测集团在IP多元化、产品创新及 广泛领域变现能力的突破将驱动增长。报告提及，集团的其他标志性IP产品，如SKULLPANDA、 CRYBABY正成为新的增长动力，并拥有各自的粉丝群体，这并非单纯作为LABUBU的替代品。预测非 LABUBUIP在今年具上行潜力，其近期的全球消费者调查结果亦显示，海外市场对非LABUBU IP的兴 趣可能被低估。花旗予泡泡玛特买入评级，目标价为415港元，基于2026年预测28倍市盈率；集团相较 大多数全球玩具及IP同业存在溢价，或归因于其海外扩张驱动的快速增长。与国内同行相比，花旗亦相 信泡泡玛特凭借其领先地位应享有溢价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating stock performance of Pop Mart, highlighting its market value drop and subsequent recovery, while questioning the sustainability of its business model and consumer interest in collectible toys [4][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization peaked at 450 billion HKD in August last year but fell to 264.56 billion HKD [4]. - Despite a significant drop, Pop Mart's stock rebounded with a year-to-date increase of over 20% [4]. - Institutional investors have shown mixed confidence, with eight out of nineteen quarters seeing sell-offs, particularly in Q2 2022 [7]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - In Q4 2025, 136 funds held a total of 4.15 million shares, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.01 million shares, reflecting a 29.65% decline [8]. - Notable fund managers like Zhang Kun and Xiao Nan exited their positions after significant losses, while Zhou Wenbo from Fortune Fund saw a 977.5% increase in stock price since Q3 2023 [10][11]. - Zhou Wenbo's strategy involved continuous research and timely adjustments to his holdings, leading to substantial gains [13]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Insights - The founder, Wang Ning, emphasizes the emotional connection consumers have with toys, suggesting that nostalgia and emotional fulfillment drive demand [6][16]. - The article posits that the future of consumer spending will increasingly focus on spiritual and emotional satisfaction rather than just material needs [17][30]. - Pop Mart's business model is framed as a blend of art and commerce, aiming to create unique consumer experiences rather than merely selling products [19][21]. Group 4: Strategic Vision and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's long-term strategy includes global expansion and a focus on IP development, leveraging China's manufacturing capabilities [37][38]. - The company aims to balance artistic uniqueness with commercial viability, positioning itself as a leader in the collectible toy market [21][24]. - Wang Ning's vision includes adapting to the AI era by enhancing the emotional and cultural significance of products, suggesting a shift towards deeper consumer engagement [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a 50% surge in stock price within a month, short-sellers are intensifying their positions against Pop Mart, leading to a precarious standoff in the market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Short-Selling Dynamics - Pop Mart's stock has seen a significant increase, yet short-sellers have not retreated, with short positions rising from 2% to 16% of free-floating shares [1]. - The short squeeze risk score for Pop Mart has reached the maximum of 100, indicating potential for a rapid price increase if the stock continues to rise [1]. - The current market structure shows a larger short position compared to institutional long holdings, creating a crowded one-sided bet [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Insights - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding Pop Mart's future growth, particularly in overseas markets, with short-sellers expressing skepticism [4]. - Despite management's efforts to support the stock price through buybacks, short interest has continued to rise, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's fundamentals [5]. - Analysts have pointed out that the recent stock price increase is not driven by fundamental factors, suggesting that short-sellers may see this as an opportunity to increase their positions [5]. Group 3: Potential for Market Volatility - The ongoing battle between the company's defensive measures and the aggressive stance of short-sellers is escalating, with both sides preparing for potential volatility [7]. - The market is at a critical juncture, where either a forced exit by short-sellers due to margin pressure could lead to a price surge, or deteriorating fundamentals could burst the stock price bubble [7].

Summary of the Conference Call on Pop Mart Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Pop Mart, a company in the collectibles and toy industry, particularly known for its designer toys and IP collaborations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance**: - Pop Mart's stock price has rebounded significantly, rising over 40% since the company initiated a buyback on January 19 [1]. - The stock price fluctuations from late October to now have been attributed to market speculation rather than new company information, as the company has limited financial reporting windows [1]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: - Negative sentiment regarding North American performance emerged after September last year, leading to a continuous stock price decline and downward adjustments in bullish earnings expectations [1]. - By late January, following the buyback and product catalysts, market sentiment shifted positively despite the lack of new bearish logic [1]. 3. **Long-term Growth Potential**: - The long-term growth narrative for Pop Mart remains intact, with recent high-frequency data misleading investors about the company's sustainable growth [2]. - The company has benefited from category expansion and IP explosions over the past two years, with a focus on "refinement and localization" in 2026 [2]. 4. **IP Collaboration**: - Collaborations with local IP designers are emphasized, with a stable existing IP portfolio and new IP launches, such as Merodi, which is designed by a Taiwanese designer [2]. - Future IP collaborations may focus on local designers in the U.S. and Europe, which could enhance market penetration, as evidenced by successful experiences with Southeast Asian and American designers [2]. 5. **Store Expansion and Upgrades**: - The company is opening larger stores both domestically and internationally, allowing for better product display and customer experience [2]. - The upgrade of existing stores is just beginning, with a focus on enhancing the overall store effectiveness compared to traditional smaller stores [2]. 6. **Branding and Consumer Experience**: - The establishment of landmark stores in locations like Fifth Avenue and Times Square is expected to enhance brand recognition [3]. - Continuous optimization of the shopping experience is noted, including frequent updates to shopping bag designs [3]. 7. **International Expansion**: - The company is in the foundational stage of its international expansion, with a focus on local integration and operational efficiency [3]. - The long-term strategy includes a "group" approach, potentially leading to segmented financial reporting by different business units in the future [3]. 8. **Financial Projections**: - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 38.3 billion, 51.3 billion, and 62.7 billion respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of 13.3 billion, 17.7 billion, and 22.1 billion [3]. Additional Important Insights - The company is actively working on enhancing customer engagement and education regarding its multiple IPs, particularly in overseas markets [3]. - The strategic focus on larger stores and localized IP development is expected to drive future growth and market penetration [2][3].