Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Macquarie is optimistic about Pop Mart's (09992) capacity expansion supporting sales growth, maintaining its earnings forecast and "Outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 470 [1] - The recently launched Valentine's Day limited edition blind box "Starry People" series has been well-received, with the first batch selling out quickly, indicating strong consumer interest [1] - Macquarie believes that Pop Mart operates a diversified product and IP portfolio, which allows for continuous product development and consumer engagement, expecting the revenue contribution from its top two to six IPs to increase from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% this year [1] Group 2 - The recent stock price adjustment is attributed to investor concerns over the slowdown of its U.S. market business, which Macquarie views as an overreaction by the market [1] - Following a significant stock price decline, Macquarie suggests that timely stock buybacks could help boost investor confidence [1]

泡泡玛特日前推售的情人节限定款盲盒"星星人怦然心动"系列受到追捧，首批产品迅速售罄，认为泡泡 玛特运营着多元化的产品及IP组合，能持续透过产品开发与消费者互动，预计其前两至六大IP贡献收入 占比可从2025年的43%，提升至今年48.6%。 麦格理也认为，近日股价调整是由于投资者对其美国市场业务放缓感到担忧所引发，相信是市场反应过 度。认为在股价大幅回调后，适时的股票回购能够提振投资者信心。 智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，看好泡泡玛特(09992)产能扩张将支持销售增长，维持盈利预测 及"跑赢大市"评级不变，目标价为470港元。 ...

机构：国信证券 研究员：张衡/陈瑶蓉 事项： 公司公告：1）1 月21 日，公司发布公告，以每股192.97 元的价格回购50 万股已发行股份，占现有发行 股份的0.0373%。2）1 月19 日，公司发布公告，以每股179.60 元的价格购回并注销140 万股已发行股 份，占当时已发行股份的0.1042%。 国信传媒观点：1）1 月19 日至21 日公司管理层回购190 万股股份，其中140 万份已经注销，充分显示 管理层对股价及公司未来发展的信心；2）从近期趋势来看，公司的PUCKY 敲敲系列、星星人怦然心 动系列均出现官网售罄、二手平台大幅溢价的现象，我们看好春节假期和爆款带动下IP 势能的提升； 3）看好潮玩龙头的IP 运营能力和出海空间，当前业绩与估值低位具备修复空间，维持"优于大市"评 级。公司的IP 势能和海外扩张仍在加速，我们上调盈利预测，预计2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 120.2/170.5/208.9亿（原为98.7/128.6/154.0 亿），同比增长284.4%/41.9%/22.6%，当前股价对应 PE=23/16/13x。公司的IP 打造与运营能力得到持续验证、海外渠 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, for 140,000 and 50,000 shares at average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its IP matrix and enhancing its platform-based operational capabilities, which are expected to meet the growing demand in the collectible toy market [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: 2024A: 13,038, 2025E: 37,195, 2026E: 52,533, 2027E: 64,823 [2][8]. - Net profit (in million HKD) is projected as follows: 2024A: 3,125, 2025E: 12,235, 2026E: 17,475, 2027E: 21,734 [2][8]. - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to rise from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Pop Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series has been well-received, with the first batch selling out quickly. The firm believes that Pop Mart's diverse product and IP portfolio will continue to drive consumer engagement and revenue growth, projecting that the contribution of its top two to six IPs to revenue will increase from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% this year [1]. Group 1 - The first batch of Pop Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series sold out rapidly, indicating strong consumer demand [1]. - Macquarie expects the revenue contribution from Pop Mart's top IPs to rise from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% in the current year, reflecting the company's effective product development and consumer interaction strategies [1]. - Recent stock price adjustments are attributed to investor concerns over the slowdown in Pop Mart's U.S. market operations, which Macquarie believes is an overreaction [1]. Group 2 - Macquarie maintains a "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart, with a target price of 470 HKD, citing optimism about production capacity expansion supporting sales growth [2]. - Citigroup has reiterated a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, highlighting confidence in new product launches and share buybacks [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992.HK) with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, with average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong IP platform and diversified product matrix, which are expected to continue meeting the demand in the trendy toy market. The ability to sustain and innovate across various IPs is emphasized as a key strength [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 13,038 - 2025: 37,195 - 2026: 52,533 - 2027: 64,823 [2][8] - Net profit (in million HKD) projections are: - 2024: 3,125 - 2025: 12,235 - 2026: 17,475 - 2027: 21,734 [2][8] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to grow from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The MOLLY 20th Anniversary Global Tour, organized by Pop Mart and artist Kenny Wong, celebrates the evolution of the MOLLY IP, highlighting its cultural significance and connection to the city of Hong Kong [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first stop of the MOLLY 20th Anniversary Global Tour will take place in Hong Kong from January 24 to February 10, 2026, under the theme "A Constant Star" [1]. - The exhibition is supported by Octopus and the West Kowloon Cultural District, aiming to inject new charm into urban tourism through IP storytelling [1]. Group 2: MOLLY's Cultural Impact - Over the past two decades, MOLLY has witnessed significant technological advancements and cultural shifts, evolving from a local Hong Kong character to a global cultural icon [3]. - MOLLY serves as a bridge connecting the past and present, as well as art and urban life, embodying warmth and courage in a changing world [3]. Group 3: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition features five chapters that chronologically narrate MOLLY's growth, including the initial story of her creation and the artistic process from concept to final product [4]. - It showcases a circular exhibition space displaying classic figures from 2016 onwards, allowing visitors to experience a "space adventure" with MOLLY [4]. Group 4: Artistic Contributions - The exhibition publicly reveals Kenny Wong's valuable sketches and original artworks since 2006, including a special piece created for the 20th anniversary titled "The Unchanging Star" [5]. - A documentary at the exhibition allows visitors to reconnect with MOLLY through Kenny's perspective, emphasizing her journey and future aspirations [5]. Group 5: Community Engagement - The exhibition includes a "MOLLY Charity Painting Activity" every weekend, with all proceeds donated to art education projects for special needs children, reflecting the IP's commitment to social responsibility [5]. - Kenny Wong has previously donated 1 million HKD for disaster recovery efforts in Hong Kong, adding a layer of warmth to the MOLLY brand [5].

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，看好潮玩龙头的IP运营能力和出海空间，当前业绩与估 值低位具备修复空间，维持泡泡玛特(09992)"优于大市"评级。公司的IP势能和海外扩张仍在加速，该行 上调盈利预测，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为120.2/170.5/208.9亿(原为98.7/128.6/154.0亿)，同比 增长284.4%/41.9%/22.6%，当前股价对应PE=23/16/13x。 门店扩张不及预期;潮玩材料成本上行;IP生命周期风险等。 国信证券主要观点如下： （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 近期事件 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 1月21日，公司发布公告，以每股192.97元的价格回购50万股已发行股份，占现有发行股份的 0.0373%。1月19日，公司发布公告，以每股179.60元的价格购回并注销140万股已发行股份，占当时已 发行股份的0.1042%。 观 ...

国信证券主要观点如下： 风险提示 近期事件 国信证券发布研报称，看好潮玩龙头的IP运营能力和出海空间，当前业绩与估值低位具备修复空间，维 持泡泡玛特(09992)"优于大市"评级。公司的IP势能和海外扩张仍在加速，该行上调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027年归母净利润分别为120.2/170.5/208.9亿(原为98.7/128.6/154.0亿)，同比增长 284.4%/41.9%/22.6%，当前股价对应PE=23/16/13x。 1)1月19日至21日公司管理层回购190万股股份，其中140万份已经注销，充分显示管理层对股价及公司 未来发展的信心;2)从近期趋势来看，公司的PUCKY敲敲系列、星星人怦然心动系列均出现官网售罄、 二手平台大幅溢价的现象，该行看好春节假期和爆款带动下IP势能的提升;3)公司的IP打造与运营能力得 到持续验证、海外渠道维持迅猛成长;同时IP乐园、联名活动等有望提升IP运营深度，长线IP打造与运 营、商业化变现能力有望持续增强;当前业绩与估值低位，具备估值上修空间。 1月21日，公司发布公告，以每股192.97元的价格回购50万股已发行股份，占现有发行股份的0.0373%。 ...

华润啤酒-R(80291)、安踏体育-R(82020)、李宁-R(82331)上一交易日沽空比率位于前三位，分别为 100.00%、100.00%、100.00%。泡泡玛特(09992)、小米集团-W(01810)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)的沽空金额 位居前三，分别为12.09 亿元、10.75 亿元、9.74 亿元。中国中车(01766)、李宁-R(82331)、中国平安- R(82318)的偏离值位居前三，分别为42.51%、38.82%、30.07%。 前十大沽空比率排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率↓ | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华润啤酒-R(80291) | 19.28 万元 | 100.00% | 25.37% | | 安踏体育-R(82020) | 9.50 万元 | 100.00% | 12.50% | | 李宁-R(82331) | 10.09 万元 | 100.00% | 38.82% | | 联想集团-R(80992) | 456.22 万元 | 82.43% | 2.97% | | 中国平安-R(82318) | 397.47 ...