农历春节临近，1月26日，外交部领事司发布公告指出中国公民在日本面临严重安全威胁，提醒中国公 民近期避免前往日本。同日，国航、南航、东航发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，涉日本航线 客票免费退改政策延长至10月24日。南都N视频此前推出"揭批高市早苗谬论"系列访谈，受日本首相高 市早苗的涉台谬论影响，自2025年11月中旬起，陆续有中国游客取消赴日旅程。 1月26日，外交部领事司发布公告指出，近段时间以来，日本社会治安不靖，针对中国公民违法犯罪案 件多发。部分地区连续发生地震，造成人员受伤，日本政府已就后续地震发出警告。中国公民在日本面 临严重安全威胁。 农历春节临近，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本，提醒已在日中国公民密切 关注当地治安形势，以及地震和次生灾害预警信息，提高安全防范意识，加强自我保护。如遇紧急情 况，请及时报警并联系驻日使领馆寻求协助。 同日，国航、南航、东航发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客更好安排出行， 针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线进出港航班客票， 可办理免费退改手续。 据悉，上述航空公 ...

另据央视新闻报道，2025年12月中国境内到日本的计划航班中超40%的航班取消。第三方出行平台APP 民航看板数据显示，2026年第一周（2025年12月29日—2026年1月4日），中国大陆至日本航线实际执行 往返航班量同比下降41%。 日本政府近期的种种动向，为东北亚地区带来极大的不稳定因素。首相高市早苗在国会上就涉台问题发 表错误言论，暗示要介入中国内部事务，并拒不撤回。几名自民党资深高官也都认为该表态与日本一直 以来的主张并不冲突，因此无需撤回。 随着农历春节临近，中国外交部和驻日本使领馆提醒公民避免前往日本，已在日本公民应密切关注当地 治安形势，以及地震和次生灾害预警信息，提高安全防范意识，加强自我保护。 其中国航公告指出，在2026年1月26日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头的客票（包括 里程奖励客票）；客票未使用行程涉及旅行日期为2026年3月29日（含）至2026年10月24日（含）之间 东京、大阪、名古屋、福冈、仙台、广岛、札幌、冲绳进出港的国航实际承运航班和挂CA航班号的代 码共享航班；在2026年1月26日0时（含）以后申请客票变更或退票（以取消客票订座时间为准），在客 ...

据新华社消息，国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行 日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 国航公告—— 南航公告—— 东航公告—— 来源：@新华社 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行至3月28日。 ...

据新华社消息，国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅 客更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线 进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 另据第一财经消息，航班管家数据显示，截至1月26日，2026年2月已有49条航线取消全部航班，比一月 进一步增加。2026年1月，中国大陆赴日本航班取消率达47.2%，较2025年12月增长7.8个百分点。 来源：长安街知事微信公众号 近段时间以来，日本社会治安不靖，针对中国公民违法犯罪案件多发。部分地区连续发生地震，造成人 员受伤，日本政府已就后续地震发出警告。中国公民在日本面临严重安全威胁。 农历春节临近，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本，提醒已在日中国公民密切 关注当地治安形势，以及地震和次生灾害预警信息，提高安全防范意识，加强自我保护。如遇紧急情 况，请及时报警并联系驻日使领馆寻求协助。 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行至3月28日。 同日，外交部领事司发布消息，提醒中国公民春节期间避免前往日本： ...

Core Insights - The cancellation rate of flights from mainland China to Japan has significantly increased, with a reported 47.2% cancellation rate in January 2026, up by 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [2] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 flight routes have canceled all flights, indicating a worsening trend in flight operations [1] Flight Cancellations - The cancellation rates for specific routes from mainland China to Japan in February 2026 show that several routes have a 100% cancellation rate, including major cities such as Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai [3] - Notable routes with 100% cancellations include Beijing Daxing to Kansai (113 flights), Shanghai Pudong to Osaka Kobe (28 flights), and Shenzhen Baoan to New Chitose (13 flights [3] Airline Policies - Multiple airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, have announced extended free ticket change and cancellation policies for flights to Japan until October 24, 2026 [4][10] - Air China allows for free changes for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for flights scheduled between March 29 and October 24, 2026, with specific conditions for changes and refunds [4] - China Eastern's policy includes free changes for flights within three days of the original flight date and allows for non-voluntary refunds without fees for unused segments [5][7] Impact on Tourism and Retail - The number of visitors from mainland China to Japan dropped significantly, with December 2025 seeing a 45.3% decrease compared to the previous year, attributed to various factors including safety concerns and negative public sentiment [12][14] - Japan's retail sector is experiencing a downturn, with department store sales declining by 1.5% in 2025, marking the first negative growth in five years, largely due to weak inbound consumption [12][14] Safety Concerns - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued warnings to citizens regarding travel to Japan, citing safety threats and recent seismic activity, urging travelers to reconsider their plans [15]

记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 1月26日下午，国航、东航、南航集体发布公告：1月26日前出票，航班起飞日期在2026年3月29日 （含）至2026年10月24日（含），涉及日本进港、出港或经停航班可免费退改。三大航带了头，预计其 他中国航司都会跟进该政策。 这意味着，日本航线今年都将是收缩状态，春节之后，清明、五一、暑假、中秋、国庆等假期，日本旅 游市场仍将错失大量中国游客。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国内地赴日游客数量达909万人次，较2024年的698万人次增长30%。不过这 么高的旅游基数是2025年前十个月创造的，这期间中国内地赴日游客量每月平均都在80万人以上，但 2025年11月、12月，中国内地赴日游客量降至56万、33万人次，降幅明显。 据悉，自去年11月15日以来，中国航司已经取消大量赴日航班，根据航班管家DAST数据，2026年1月 中国大陆赴日本航班取消率达47.2%较2025年12月增长7.8个百分点。截至1月26日，2026年2月已有49条 航线取消全部航班。 | 航线 | 赴日已取消 | 医療治症日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 北京大兴-关西 | 113 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by major Chinese airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) regarding free cancellations and changes for flights to and from Japan from March 29 to October 24, 2026, indicates a significant contraction in the Japan travel market for Chinese tourists in 2026, especially during peak holiday seasons [1]. Summary by Sections Airline Policy Changes - Major Chinese airlines have collectively announced free cancellation and modification policies for flights to Japan, effective for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for travel between March 29 and October 24, 2026 [1]. - It is anticipated that other Chinese airlines will follow suit with similar policies [1]. Impact on Travel Market - The Japan travel market is expected to experience a significant decline in Chinese tourists, missing out on key holiday periods such as Spring Festival, Qingming, May Day, summer vacations, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1]. - Data indicates that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan is projected to reach 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024. However, this growth is primarily driven by the first ten months of 2025, with a monthly average of over 800,000 tourists [1]. Flight Cancellations - Since November 15, 2025, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% for January 2026, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [1]. - As of January 26, 2026, there are 49 routes with all flights canceled for February 2026 [1]. Specific Route Cancellations - A detailed list shows that multiple routes from various cities in China to Japan have a 100% cancellation rate, including major routes from Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [2][3]. - The cancellation of flights is expected to further impact the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan in 2026, with December 2025 statistics showing a significant drop in travelers compared to previous years [3].

Group 1 - Major airlines including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced a special policy for ticket refunds and changes for flights to and from Japan, applicable for tickets purchased or changed before January 26, 2026, 12:00 PM, for travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [1][2] - The policy aims to assist travelers in light of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' warnings regarding travel to Japan, allowing for free changes and cancellations for affected flights [2][3] - As of January 26, 2026, the cancellation rate for flights from mainland China to Japan reached 47.2%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared to December 2025, with 49 routes already canceling all flights in February 2026 [3]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 1.1% on January 26, with CITIC Hainan Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 58.13, up 0.05% with a trading volume of 50,900 shares and a turnover of 297 million yuan - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.81, down 1.19% with a trading volume of 2,620,300 shares and a turnover of 1.536 billion yuan - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) closed at 20.44, down 3.90% with a trading volume of 251,500 shares and a turnover of 518 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 999.1 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 624.0 million yuan [3][4] - The capital flow for specific stocks shows: - Shenzhen Airport (000089) had a net outflow of 6.15 million yuan from retail investors - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) had a significant net outflow of 60.43 million yuan from institutional investors [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a 6.64% increase over the past five days, with a net subscription of 190 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and had a 5.15% increase, but saw a decrease of 10 million shares in its latest subscription [7]

Group 1 - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, announced free ticket changes and cancellations for flights to and from Japan scheduled between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026 [1][9] - The announcement indicates a contraction in the Japanese travel market, with significant losses of Chinese tourists expected during major holidays in 2026, including Qingming, Labor Day, summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1] - Data shows that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan reached 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024, but there was a notable decline in November and December 2025, with visitor numbers dropping to 560,000 and 330,000 respectively [2][1] Group 2 - Since November 15, 2025, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% in January 2026, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [1] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 routes for February 2026 have had all flights canceled, indicating a severe reduction in flight availability [1]