1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎么看？ 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反映到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 客车11月月报： 10月内需同比修复，期待年底翘尾行情 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年11月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2 ◼ 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术 输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真真切切反映到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对 客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背后支撑因素： （ ➢ 1）天时：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余 年的出海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业 【走出去】。 ➢ 2）地利：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车 已领先海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 ➢ 3）人和：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲 击+新能源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年 ...

Market Overview - The commercial vehicle sector increased by 1.56% on November 24, with Jinlong Automobile leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Stock Performance - Jinlong Automobile (600686) closed at 15.50, up 10.01% with a trading volume of 267,200 shares and a turnover of 266.6 million [1] - Yutong Bus (600066) closed at 31.42, up 2.71% with a trading volume of 136,100 shares and a turnover of 4.25 billion [1] - Ankai Bus (000868) closed at 5.18, up 1.97% with a trading volume of 107,500 shares and a turnover of 55.29 million [1] - Dongfeng Motor (600006) closed at 7.49, up 1.90% with a trading volume of 345,700 shares and a turnover of 257 million [1] - Other notable performances include: - JAC Motors (600418) at 48.89, up 1.31% [1] - Foton Motor (600166) at 2.77, up 0.73% [1] Capital Flow - The commercial vehicle sector saw a net inflow of 105 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 80.64 million [2] - The main capital flow details include: - JAC Motors had a net inflow of 181.01 million, accounting for 4.95% of the total [3] - Jinlong Automobile had a net inflow of 39.13 million, accounting for 9.81% [3] - Foton Motor experienced a net outflow of 14.29 million, with a net inflow from retail investors of 9.27 million [3]

Core Insights - Zhengzhou is transforming into a significant industrial base in China, focusing on advanced manufacturing and achieving high-quality development by 2025 [1] - The automotive manufacturing sector in Zhengzhou is experiencing robust growth, with a complete industrial ecosystem and a focus on electric, connected, and intelligent vehicles [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing industry is stable and growing, with significant contributions from leading companies and innovations in technology [4][5] - Innovation is driving the restructuring of the industrial ecosystem, with a focus on digital transformation and smart manufacturing [6] - Zhengzhou is strategically planning for future industries, emphasizing green development and optimizing resource allocation [7] Automotive Manufacturing - Zhengzhou's automotive industry has an overall scale of approximately 300 billion, with 7 vehicle manufacturers and over 150 key parts suppliers [2] - In 2024, the total vehicle production reached 1.118 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with 626,000 units being electric vehicles, marking a 98% increase [2] - From January to October 2025, vehicle production was 956,300 units, up 16.52%, with electric vehicle production around 508,000 units [2][3] Equipment Manufacturing - Zhengzhou has over 500 large-scale equipment manufacturing enterprises, with a stable growth trend and a focus on innovation [4] - The equipment manufacturing industry is expected to exceed 100 billion by 2025, driven by leading companies like China Railway Equipment [4][5] - The collaborative effect of industrial clusters is evident, with significant advancements in green and intelligent transformations [5] Innovation and Digital Transformation - Zhengzhou is reshaping its industrial landscape through digital transformation, with 281 provincial-level smart factories [6] - Companies like Yutong are advancing in intelligent driving technologies and digital supply chains, showcasing the potential for traditional industries to undergo digital transformation [6] - The city has established 33 national-level enterprise technology centers and 117 specialized "little giant" enterprises to support continuous industrial upgrades [6] Strategic Planning and Future Development - Zhengzhou is planning for future industries with a focus on six major directions and 15 new tracks, with an expected scale exceeding 150 billion [7] - The city is promoting the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles and electric public transport, achieving 69.46% of its three-year target by October [7] - The implementation of reforms and the promotion of regional industrial chain collaboration are laying a solid foundation for high-quality manufacturing development [7]

Core Insights - The "Light Truck First Influence Index" for major domestic light truck companies scored 1702 points in October 2025, reflecting a 21.3% increase from September 2025 but a 4.7% decrease year-on-year from October 2024 [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - October saw the arrival of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, marking a traditional peak season for light truck production companies to enhance brand marketing efforts [3]. - New products, large orders, and new energy vehicles remain hot topics in the light truck market [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Jianghuai 1 Card launched the L6PLUS and L9PLUS models, focusing on the logistics industry's demand for high-quality transport solutions, catering to the evolving needs for efficiency, reliability, and comfort [5]. - Dongfeng Light Truck continues to rank second, engaging in strategic cooperation with CATL to enhance the development of new energy commercial vehicles [7][11]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck HOWO Light Truck achieved a significant sales milestone with 2581 units sold during a promotional event [7][11]. - Yutong Light Truck signed a strategic agreement for the delivery of 200 new energy light trucks and 500 hydrogen fuel light trucks, emphasizing their advantages in cold chain transport [9][11]. Group 3: Rankings and Competitive Landscape - Jianghuai 1 Card secured the top position in the "Light Truck First Influence Index," followed by Dongfeng Light Truck and Jiefang Light Truck in third place [11][14]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck HOWO Light Truck moved up one position to fourth, while Jiangling Light Truck rose two spots to sixth [11][16]. Group 4: Sales Performance - The light truck market achieved a "nine consecutive increases" in sales, indicating a positive trend for the upcoming months [18].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][43]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 51.6%, with production and sales of NEVs at 1.772 million and 1.715 million units respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [1][39]. - The overall automotive production in China for October was 3.359 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while sales reached 3.226 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][39]. - The report anticipates a surge in NEV purchases before the policy changes in 2026, which will reduce tax incentives, leading to a potential buying frenzy at the end of 2025 [1][39]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Trends and Valuation Review - As of November 20, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo automotive sector index increased by 2.02% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.13 percentage points [11]. - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 23.72%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 4.44 percentage points [11]. Industry Data Tracking - In October, the automotive export volume was 666,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [19]. - The dealer inventory warning index stood at 52.6%, indicating a slight increase year-on-year but a decrease month-on-month [19]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft for public consultation on the "Government Procurement Demand Standards for New Energy Vehicles" [26]. - The National Energy Administration reported that as of the end of October, there were 18.645 million electric vehicle charging facilities in China, a 54% increase year-on-year [29]. Corporate News - The new model, the Xiangjie S9, was launched with a starting price of 309,800 yuan, featuring advanced technology and design [33]. - Xiaopeng Motors reported a third-quarter revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a 102% year-on-year increase, with a total vehicle delivery of 116,007 units [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that enhance brand competitiveness through intelligent processes, such as Seres (601127) [39]. - It also highlights the smart driving industry chain, including Fuyao Glass (600660) and Junsheng Electronics (600699), as potential beneficiaries of increased smart driving configuration penetration [39].

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][24] - As of November 21, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 4.83%, Shenzhen Component Index 8.65%, CSI 300 6.20%, CSI 500 9.69%, CSI 1000 7.59%, CSI 2000 7.40%, ChiNext Index 12.16%, and STAR 50 Index 16.45% [5][24] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include petroleum and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel, basic chemicals, home appliances, and steel [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 1,127 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment and new energy sectors [2][13][24] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the textiles and apparel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with respective proportions of 41.41%, 38.89%, and 38.71% [13][24] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 364 and 315 stocks respectively [15][24] Group 3 - The report identifies 15 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Heertai, Sry New Materials, and Cangge Mining, with the manufacturing and cyclical sectors contributing the most stocks [3][20][25] - The construction industry had the highest number of new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the non-ferrous metals industry led in the cyclical sector [20][25]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of the electric heavy truck market in China, particularly focusing on the performance of charging heavy trucks, which have consistently maintained monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units since April 2025 [1][32]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the overall sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 20,100 units, with charging heavy trucks contributing 14,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 182% [5][15]. - Charging heavy trucks have achieved a remarkable 22 consecutive months of doubling sales, outperforming the overall new energy heavy truck market for 26 consecutive months [5][32]. Market Composition - As of October 2025, charging heavy trucks accounted for 71.14% of the pure electric heavy truck sales, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5]. - From January to October 2025, charging heavy trucks made up 68.43% of the pure electric heavy truck sales, significantly higher than the previous year's total [7]. Monthly Sales Trends - The monthly sales of charging heavy trucks have seen a dramatic increase, with an average monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units in 2025, and the last five months (June to October) being the highest sales months to date [9][32]. - The sales of charging heavy trucks in 2025 have already surpassed the total sales for the entire year of 2024 [32]. Segment Analysis - The primary models of charging heavy trucks sold from January to October 2025 include tractor trucks, dump trucks, and concrete mixers, which accounted for 70.77%, 12.70%, and 11.19% of sales, respectively [11]. - The sales of charging tractor trucks reached 74,800 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 292%, significantly outpacing the overall market growth [25]. Competitive Landscape - In October 2025, 14 companies sold over 100 units of charging heavy trucks, with SANY leading the market with 2,773 units sold [15][18]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with several companies achieving substantial year-on-year growth, including XCMG and Jiefang, which saw increases of 247% and 342%, respectively [20][24]. Market Share - From January to October 2025, five companies held over 10% market share in the charging heavy truck segment, with SANY, XCMG, Jiefang, Shaanxi Automobile, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation leading the market [24]. - The market share of Jiefang and Shaanxi Automobile has seen significant increases, with Jiefang's share rising by 4.14 percentage points and Shaanxi's by 5.34 percentage points compared to the previous year [24].

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Lanzhou Urban and Rural Public Transport Management Co., Ltd. announced the candidate for the battery replacement of 129 new energy pure electric buses, with Yutong Bus ranked first in the bidding process [1]. Group 1: Bidding Details - The bidding involved the replacement of batteries for 129 new energy pure electric buses [1]. - The bid was announced by Lanzhou Urban and Rural Public Transport Management Co., Ltd., with the opening scheduled for October 22, 2025 [2]. - The winning bid amount for Yutong Bus was approximately 141.07 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Candidate Rankings - Yutong Bus Co., Ltd. secured the first position with a total score of 60 points, which included a business score of 29.80, a technical score of 44.29, and a pricing score of 17.00 [3]. - Shenzhen Times Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. ranked second with a total score of 82.17 points [3]. - Lanzhou Jinfeng Automobile Repair Co., Ltd. was ranked third with a total score of 69.54 points [3].