深 度 研 汽车行业 买入（维持） 中国客车龙头，海外业务量价齐升 宇通客车（600066.SH）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 公 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340124020014 电话：0769-22117626 邮箱：wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn | | | --- | --- | | 主要数据 2026 年 1 | 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 31.84 | | 总市值（亿元） | 704.92 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2213.94 | | 流通股本（百万股）2213.94 | | | ROE(TTM) | 37.10% | | 12 月最高价（元） | 34.47 | | 12 月最低价（元） | 证 22.79 券 | | 股价走势 | 研 究 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind | | 股价走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind ...

深 度 研 汽车行业 买入（维持） 中国客车龙头，海外业务量价齐升 宇通客车（600066.SH）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 公 分析师：刘梦麟 行业龙头地位稳固，全品类产品矩阵完善 宇通客车是国内客车行业首 家上市公司，截至2025年，大中型客车销量已连续23年稳居国内第一， 国内市占率超30%。公司产品覆盖公路、公交、校车、机场摆渡及自动 驾驶微循环车等全细分市场，并具备全系列新能源适配能力。 究 研究助理：吴镇杰 财务盈利能力强劲，从规模向效益成功转型 公司业绩呈现"营收稳健、 利润爆发"的特征，2025年前三季度归母净利润同比增长35.4%，显著 高于营收增速，验证了向"效益驱动"转型的成功。受益于海外高毛 利业务占比提升及国内存量置换，公司净利率稳步提升至12.76%的高 水平。 深筑技术护城河，"睿控E平台"领跑智能化 公司拥有全球商用车行 业规模最大、体系最完善的研发团队，持续保持高强度研发投入。依 托自主研发的"睿控E平台"，集 ...

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by the strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and supportive policies for vehicle upgrades [1][7][12] - In December 2025, the sales of commercial vehicles reached 300,000 units, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and a 15% month-on-month increase [7][12] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is projected to reach 46% by December 2025, a substantial increase from 29% in December 2024 [12][14] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The total sales of commercial vehicles in China for 2025 are forecasted to be 3.1 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year growth compared to the stable period since 2022 [1][7] - The market showed a strong upward trend from March to December 2025, with December achieving a historical high for the month [5][7] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles in December 2025 are expected to hit 140,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase and a 49% month-on-month increase [1][8] New Energy Vehicle Performance - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased significantly, from approximately 3% in 2019-2021 to 46% in December 2025 [12][14] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles for the entire year of 2025 are projected to reach 910,000 units, a 57% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The growth in new energy vehicle sales is attributed to strong demand and government incentives, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector [10][12] Market Structure and Competition - The market for commercial vehicles is characterized by a stable structure, with significant contributions from light and heavy-duty trucks [14][18] - Key players in the commercial vehicle market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, which dominate the light truck, heavy truck, and bus segments respectively [15][18] - The performance of heavy-duty trucks has improved significantly due to subsidy policies, with notable growth in electric heavy-duty trucks in regions like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai [16][17] Regional Market Dynamics - The light truck market is particularly strong in regions such as East China and South China, with increasing sales in these areas [18][19] - The penetration of new energy vehicles in the truck segment reached 38% in December 2025, while the bus segment saw a penetration rate of 78% [14][18] - The market for new energy light trucks is primarily concentrated in East China and South China, with significant growth observed in these regions [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China in the next 3-5 years [4][12]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry - **Timing**: Aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation," with buses being a strong practitioner of the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of overseas experience [4][12]. - **Geographical Advantage**: The technology and products of Chinese buses are at a world-class level, leading in new energy buses and competitive in traditional buses regarding cost-effectiveness and service [4][12]. - **Human Factors**: The end of the price war in the domestic market is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The bus industry is expected to achieve new high profitability due to the absence of price wars, an oligopolistic market structure, better net profit margins in overseas markets, and declining lithium carbonate costs [5][16]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from the last industry boom (2015-2017), while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6][16]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - **Yutong Bus**: Identified as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits of 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20%, 20%, and 19% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7][14]. - **King Long Automobile**: Considered the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity, projected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28%, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8][14]. Group 5: Industry Data Summary - In December 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China was 59,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 3.94% and 8.56% respectively [19][20]. - The wholesale volume for December 2025 was 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.49% and 20.11% respectively [19][20]. - The terminal sales volume for December 2025 was 62,400 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.93% and 28.10% respectively [22].

Group 1 - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a decline of 0.27% on January 28, with Jinlong Automobile leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the commercial vehicle sector showed varied performance, with China National Heavy Duty Truck rising by 3.71% and Jinlong Automobile falling by 5.29% [2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the commercial vehicle sector was 73.19 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 230 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks in the sector varied, with Jianghuai Automobile achieving a turnover of 2.859 billion yuan [1][2] - Detailed fund flow analysis indicated that several companies, including Dongfeng Motor and Ankai Bus, experienced significant net outflows from main funds [3]

1月28日，宇通客车盘中下跌2.01%，截至13:31，报31.75元/股，成交3.07亿元，换手率0.43%，总市值 702.93亿元。 分红方面，宇通客车A股上市后累计派现271.30亿元。近三年，累计派现99.63亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，宇通客车十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股2.44亿股，相比上期增加656.63万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第八大流通股 东，持股2272.72万股，相比上期减少100.70万股。华夏能源革新股票A（003834）位居第九大流通股 东，持股1648.01万股，为新进股东。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第十大流通股东，持股1634.75 万股，相比上期减少53.32万股。南方兴润价值一年持有混合A（011363）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出648.03万元，特大单买入1134.38万元，占比3.69%，卖出1750.53万元， 占比5.70%；大单买入2933.30万元，占比9.54%，卖出2965.18万元，占比9.65%。 宇通客车今年以来 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The bus industry is positioned to become a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the scale of the Chinese market within 3-5 years [2]. - Key drivers for this cycle include favorable national policies, advanced technology and product quality, and a recovering domestic market post-price war [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Yutong and King Long, which are expected to show significant profit growth and resilience [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - December exports exceeded expectations, with a notable increase in both wholesale and retail sales [7][10]. - The overall production in December 2025 was 59,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.94% and a month-on-month increase of 8.56% [11]. Company Performance - Yutong is highlighted as a "model student" with high growth and dividend potential, projecting net profits of 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4]. - King Long is noted for its rapid progress, with expected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for the same period, reflecting significant growth rates [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market has seen the end of price wars, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies [6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by tourism and public transport upgrades, potentially returning to 2019 levels [2]. Export Trends - December 2025 saw a significant increase in bus exports, with a total of 9,073 units exported, marking a year-on-year increase of 81% and a month-on-month increase of 111% [34]. - Yutong and King Long dominate the export market, with Yutong exporting 2,245 units of passenger buses, capturing a 42% market share [43].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the automotive industry, specifically strategies and forecasts for 2026, with a review of the automotive market from 2005 to 2025 [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Sales Growth and Valuation**: - Sales growth is a sufficient but not necessary condition for the valuation of the automotive sector to increase. Historical data shows that years with sales growth corresponded with rising valuations, but there were exceptions in years like 2012 and post-2020 [3]. - The automotive sector's valuation tends to respond approximately three months ahead of sales growth before 2020, and this response time has shortened to about one month post-2020 [3]. 2. **Comparison with 2018**: - The year 2026 is expected to mirror 2018, which also faced declining sales due to policy changes. In 2018, the automotive sector began to decline three months before sales dropped significantly [4][5]. 3. **Impact of Policy Changes**: - The introduction of a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles in 2026 and changes in subsidy structures are expected to impact demand negatively [1][2]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: - The focus for 2026 is on new growth areas, particularly in smart driving technologies. Companies in this sector are seen as undervalued, with many trading below 30x P/E ratios while maintaining decent growth rates [7][8]. 5. **Low Valuation and High Growth Stocks**: - Several companies were highlighted as having strong growth potential while being undervalued, including: - **Mastec**: Estimated 20% growth in 2026 with a P/E of 15-16x [10]. - **Yatong**: Expected 30% growth with a P/E of around 20x [10]. - **Fuyou Glass**: Anticipated 15% growth with a P/E of about 15x [11]. - **Weichai Power**: Projected 15% growth with a similar P/E [11]. 6. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Companies like **Desay SV** and **Kobota** are expected to see significant revenue growth due to their involvement with major clients like Li Auto and NIO, with projected revenues of 90 billion and 21 billion respectively for Q4 [17][21]. - **Huayang Group** is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2026, driven by high-margin products [24]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The conference also discussed the potential risks associated with rising raw material costs, particularly for companies in the forging sector, which could impact earnings realization [13]. - The importance of technological cycles, including the shift towards electric and smart vehicles, was emphasized as a key driver for future growth in the automotive sector [6][7]. - The discussion included a focus on the competitive landscape, with companies like Fuyou Glass expected to benefit from a more favorable market position as competitors exit [30][31]. Conclusion - The automotive industry is facing challenges due to policy changes and market dynamics, but there are significant investment opportunities in undervalued companies with strong growth potential, particularly in the smart driving and electric vehicle segments. The insights from the conference provide a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the automotive sector.

Group 1 - The article highlights the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index (CSPSADRP) based on their daily and year-to-date performance as of January 27, 2026 [1][5] - China Gold (600916.SH) leads with a daily increase of 9.96% and a year-to-date increase of 36.81%, with a dividend yield of 3.45% [1][5] - Aotewei (688516.SH) shows a remarkable year-to-date increase of 120.95%, with a daily increase of 9.81% and a dividend yield of 2.31% [1][5] Group 2 - The index's historical price-to-earnings ratio is reported at 4.76%, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of 11.07 [2] - The dividend yield for the index over the past 12 months is noted as 1.34 times, indicating a strong return for investors [2] - The article mentions the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, suggesting positive momentum for the stocks listed [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio in the automotive industry slightly increased to 4.35%, up by 0.02 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating an overall overweight of 0.14% compared to the market capitalization of automotive stocks in A-shares [2][5] - The configuration ratio for automotive manufacturing decreased to 1.04%, down by 0.12 percentage points, while the configuration ratio for automotive parts increased to 3.31%, up by 0.14 percentage points [5] - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2025 reached 8.846 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.1% [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector increased by 2.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.62% [28] - Among sub-sectors, commercial vehicle parts rose by 7.36%, while automotive sales and services fell by 5.74% [28] Fund Holdings - The top fifteen fund holdings in the automotive sector for Q4 2025 include Fuyao Glass, Slin Intelligent Drive, and Sailun Tire, with significant inflows into Slin Intelligent Drive and outflows from Jianghuai Automobile [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Overseas expansion with recommendations for companies like Minth Group and BYD 2. High-end passenger vehicles and parts with a focus on companies like Geely and Ideal Automotive 3. Embracing AI technology with recommendations for companies like Top Group and Xpeng Motors [7][22][23]